2 picks in the first seems like a given to me...

[whorlnut]

11 hours ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

I can see it happening as well. We have too many picks and not enough roster spots. 

 

Sneaky suspicion the guy they're targeting is Jerry Tillery.

This is my thought as well. The Bills are said to have scouted ND games heavily this past year. I would suspect the guy they were looking at the most was Tillery. He has proto size and is very disruptive. I could see the Bills going after him. 

[Hebert19]

I'm going to bump this because after reading up on the top prospects for the dline my take is that if you dont get the top 3...trade back at it's a deep draft for dline. 

 

Trade back get a TE and DT or edge.  

 

Standing by this...the rest is smokescreen. 

[Turk71]

On 4/8/2019 at 6:43 AM, RyanC883 said:

I also see this happening.  Two scenarios here for me:

 

1.  Someone the Bills want like E. Oliver or another player is there at 9.  In that case, it will take a bevy of picks to make the Bills trade down.  Likley, we pick at 9, and reenter the first to get Hock, another TE, a OL, or Edge player if one falls.   I think this is the most likely, given the talent at some position that will be available at 9. 

 

2.  One of the LB's named Devin is there at 9, and our preferred DL target isn't.  In that case, there are quite a few ILB needy teams behind us who get into a minor bidding war to trade up.  If none of them do, it's not impossible we take Devin White if he is there.  But I see the most likely scenario as a trade down, then taking BPA--hopefully Hock or Faint. 

If White is there we take him. Edmunds or White could both play outside, they are two of the most athletic lbs in years. Wilkins at 15 with an xtra 2nd is my preference.

[CSBill]

On 4/8/2019 at 8:00 AM, Hebert19 said:

Whether Beane trades down or stays put I can see him bundling some picks to move back into the end of the first to nail his 2nd must have.   With the depth on defense in this draft there will still be huge difference makers available late first early second so it will warrant the move.  

 

Preference is trade back get Hock, trade up with the extra second or 3rd and get best DT/edge available.  Draft OT, LB and RB with whatever is left.  We have enough duct tape on this oline to justify grabbing your franchise tackle next year and not this year.  Just my take. 

 

If they want TJ Hock, don't gamble and trade back. He might not even be there at 9. If he is, take him. Don't risk it. .... But if he is not the guy, then yes, roll the dice and see what happens if it is possible to get a second 1st round pick.

[fansince88]

I will carefully consider this and give you my well thoughtout decision next Saturday.  By then I should be sure.

[MAJBobby]

If you are trading back once. Mind as well keep going completely out of the 1st round. If you go past 20 you are picking 2nd round players in the first. 

 

I have 20 round 1 graded players. I have heard there is even less that some places are saying. 

[GimmeSomeProcess]

Not sure about the first cause we def don’t have the ammo but trading back into the 2nd for sure. Unless we trade a few spots, then I absolutely see a trade into the back of round 1. 

[NewEraBills]

On 4/8/2019 at 8:06 AM, NewEraBills said:

I can spot the possible trade partner too.  If I'm Beane, I'm working the phone with Baltimore's Eric DeCosta.  The Ravens need the picks.  They do not have a 2nd and they are a prime trade partner to move from pick #22 in the 1st to get that extra 2nd rounder and we'd most likely have to throw in the 3rd as well.  But with 2 Fours, we could still maneuver back into the bottom of round 3.

 

Just to quote myself on this, I think if Ed Oliver is off the board, you trade down and try to pick up an extra 2nd and 3rd.  Take Jonah Williams, Devin Bush, or Brian Burns.  Now with an extra 2nd and 3rd you can trade with Baltimore or Seattle but still have a 2nd and 3rd rd pick.  With that 2nd 1st I'd take N'Keal Harry.  In round 2, do what I can to get Jerry Tillery and in rd 3 take Dawson Knox or the Sternberger, or this may be a good spot to take whatever we didn't take in rd 1 like OL or one of the remaining pass rushers.  The thing is there will be plenty of guys to choose from in every round.  9 days fellas, 9 days.

[Bring it]

I like where we are at 9! At least, we can end up with a big improvement in the trenches or at lb! 9 seems early to take Hock but how long do you wait? He’s the best all around nfl ready TE. Maybe we can get back into the first round but not too much later.

 

Can’t wait!!!

[FeelingOnYouboty]

9. Ed Oliver

18. D.K. Metcalf

 

IMAGINE!

[maryland-bills-fan]

On 4/8/2019 at 9:49 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

I don’t know if the Bills will pick twice in the 1st (but it’s possible). I think that they pick at least 4 times by the end of day 2. I suppose that there’s even a scenario where they pick 5 guys before the end of day 2. They could (hypothetically) trade 9 to the Raiders for 24 & 27. They could then package the 2 4ths to get back into the 3rd. 

 

How about this?

24 - Ferrell

27 - Fant

40 - Simmons

74 - Kelvin Harmon

98 - Tytus Howard

 

This may be wishful thinking but a home run nonetheless. 

 

 

Skinny guys get pushed around in the pros

[maryland-bills-fan]

Tight ends.  That position can be run by committee with several players with different strong points.  The defense can not respond to every substitution and when they do, they give away something when they play to the new TE's strenghts.   Don't draft high for a guy who is not at a position where he can dominate and doesn't play most of the time.     DT, linebacker OT are the top 3 picks.

 

[BillsFan1988]

On 4/8/2019 at 4:06 PM, NewEraBills said:

I can spot the possible trade partner too.  If I'm Beane, I'm working the phone with Baltimore's Eric DeCosta.  The Ravens need the picks.  They do not have a 2nd and they are a prime trade partner to move from pick #22 in the 1st to get that extra 2nd rounder and we'd most likely have to throw in the 3rd as well.  But with 2 Fours, we could still maneuver back into the bottom of round 3.

By the chart it would take a 4th & 5th along with the 2nd & 3rd to move up from 40 to 22. Btw look out for Sea as a possible trade partner also at 21

[Kirby Jackson]

33 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Skinny guys get pushed around in the pros

Who is the skinny guy?

[dollars 2 donuts]

@IgotBILLStopay

 

Igots has mean on this Q. WIlliams trade up thing so much that I can't think about anything else.

 

Stupid attractive draft nuisance enticing Igots.  

 

Yeah, I would like the above for what it does to our D, especially over the next 4-5 years (Williams, Star, Phillips).

 

However, If it doesn't happen I am a big fan of trading what we need to get two in the top 32.

 

However, I don't necessarily want to trade back and then use some capital to trade back in.  I like the potential pick at 9.  I'd rather have 9 and 20 something rather than teens, 20 something a little extra capital later on.

 

I want those first two picks to just plain start.

[Shaw66]

On 4/8/2019 at 8:00 AM, Hebert19 said:

Whether Beane trades down or stays put I can see him bundling some picks to move back into the end of the first to nail his 2nd must have.   With the depth on defense in this draft there will still be huge difference makers available late first early second so it will warrant the move.  

 

 

I try to listen to Beane to understand his strategy, and what you say, although it makes sense to me, contradicts what Beane has said.  What Beane says is when there's depth at a position, you sit tight and wait for some guy (not a particular guy) to come to you, or you trade back and wait for some guy.   So, for example, if there are four d linemen he rates as first round talent, when he's picking at 9 he will be inclined to trade out of 9 to 15 or 18 or so, because there's a good chance one of the four will fall to the later pick.   That way he gets extra value out of the 9 spot.  

 

Looked at from the other direction, he's going to trade up, to get back into the late first round, when he sees one guy, a particular guy, who stands out among all the other guys at his position AND who the BIlls have rated as the BPA at the spot they can trade up to.  

 

The example he gave yesterday, when someone asked, was Edmunds.   There was no one like him left in the draft and the Bills thought he was the BPA, so they traded UP for him.  If there were six middle linebackers, all really good, they wouldn't have traded up, and they might have traded back.  

 

That tells me that if they trade up for D line talent, they think the guy is really special compared to all the other D line talent available.   More likely that if they trade up, they're trading for a position that ISN'T deep in the draft.   

[dollars 2 donuts]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I try to listen to Beane to understand his strategy, and what you say, although it makes sense to me, contradicts what Beane has said.  What Beane says is when there's depth at a position, you sit tight and wait for some guy (not a particular guy) to come to you, or you trade back and wait for some guy.   So, for example, if there are four d linemen he rates as first round talent, when he's picking at 9 he will be inclined to trade out of 9 to 15 or 18 or so, because there's a good chance one of the four will fall to the later pick.   That way he gets extra value out of the 9 spot.  

 

Looked at from the other direction, he's going to trade up, to get back into the late first round, when he sees one guy, a particular guy, who stands out among all the other guys at his position AND who the BIlls have rated as the BPA at the spot they can trade up to.  

 

The example he gave yesterday, when someone asked, was Edmunds.   There was no one like him left in the draft and the Bills thought he was the BPA, so they traded UP for him.  If there were six middle linebackers, all really good, they wouldn't have traded up, and they might have traded back.  

 

That tells me that if they trade up for D line talent, they think the guy is really special compared to all the other D line talent available.   More likely that if they trade up, they're trading for a position that ISN'T deep in the draft.   

 

 

Great analysis, Shaw, as usual.

 

So, in a way I guess we are looking for those guys at a position of need for the Bills in the 20s which talent at that position drops of precipitously after that guy is drafted.

Edited April 16, 2019 by dollars 2 donuts

[NewEraBills]

1 hour ago, BillsFan1988 said:

By the chart it would take a 4th & 5th along with the 2nd & 3rd to move up from 40 to 22. Btw look out for Sea as a possible trade partner also at 21

That's why I quoted myself.  Trade back and get the extra 2nd and 3rd so we can recoup for the loss of trading for the extra 1

[MAJBobby]

Well my last Mock I was able to use Future 1st and get Both:  Josh Allen and Ed Oliver

[CaptnCoke11]

I agree with the two picks in round 1.  Packaging 2 and 3 gets them to around 25

[ddaryl]

I forsee us being aggressive and moving up into the 1st like last year.. 

[HOUSE]

2  picks in the first?

 

I believe that was Jeff Nixon

 

 

 

 

 

[T master]

There is nothing i would put past Beane i thought Whaley liked to wheel & deal which he did but usually he did it at a lose but Beane (to this point) seems to know exactly who they want, where they want them & how they are going to get there to get them & for the most part comes away with more rather than less !!

 

Which is part of the reason why when that recent article came to be about the NFL exec that couldn't understand what Beane was doing & didn't see a plan just blew me away because most of all he does is very calculated almost to the point of being sinister ?

 

 

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

Great analysis, Shaw, as usual.

 

So, in way I guess we are looking for those guys at a position of need for the Bills in the 20s which talent at that position drops of precipitously after that guy is drafted.

I think that's right.   Beane wants the guy who, in their rankings, stands apart from everyone else, and especially apart from the guys who play that position.   When he see one of those,he'll trade up.   If he sees a bunch of receivers clustered on his board and his pick is coming, he's more likely to trade back.  

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, T master said:

There is nothing i would put past Beane i thought Whaley liked to wheel & deal which he did but usually he did it at a lose but Beane (to this point) seems to know exactly who they want, where they want them & how they are going to get there to get them & for the most part comes away with more rather than less !!

 

Which is part of the reason why when that recent article came to be about the NFL exec that couldn't understand what Beane was doing & didn't see a plan just blew me away because most of all he does is very calculated almost to the point of being sinister ?

 

 

Well, I didn't see the article, and I think it's pretty hard NOT to understand what Beane is doing.   He's been consistently up front about it. 

 

However, GMs certainly don't always agree on how to evaluate talent.   The Bills are very focused on talent, but their focus is fixed on character issues.   Some other teams probably don't evaluate players in the same way.   So I can see a GM scratching his head about guys the Bills passed up, because another GM who rates physical ability highly and puts less emphasis on what McBeane value will see the Bills passing on what the other GM thinks is a star.  

 

This is the year we begin to see if McDermott's character-first approach translates into wins.  

[Rockinon]

I don't really bye the OP's take on this. If the Bills stay at 9, I can't see it happening.  No one is going to accept a bunch of late round picks for that move(from our perspective sounds great....not so much for a trade partner).  However, if there is a trade down that gives us another 2nd, then yea, I can see a move up into the 1st using one of the 2nds to get there along with a later pick. I also don't like the idea of waiting 2-3 rounds mid draft to be able to pick again.

 

I think if we trade down first, the chances of getting 2 1st rounders is very likely.  I also think it's pretty likely we bundle some late rounders to move up. We don't need 10 picks, but we also don't want to be waiting 3 rounds before our next pick is up.  Have to be flexible if our overall draft is going to be a success.

[Simon Says]

On 4/8/2019 at 8:00 AM, Hebert19 said:

Whether Beane trades down or stays put I can see him bundling some picks to move back into the end of the first to nail his 2nd must have.   With the depth on defense in this draft there will still be huge difference makers available late first early second so it will warrant the move.  

 

Preference is trade back get Hock, trade up with the extra second or 3rd and get best DT/edge available.  Draft OT, LB and RB with whatever is left.  We have enough duct tape on this oline to justify grabbing your franchise tackle next year and not this year.  Just my take. 

per the Old" draft pick chart, Bills 2nd + 3rd (720 points) = a later 1st (26-32),so yeah, Bills could afford it. At this point, with  70 guys already on the  roster, 10 picks doesn't seem "necessary" but they have  value; whether you keep  them ,trade up,trade down, or trade for future picks. Speaking of Hockenson; some mocks have him going as early as #8...possible Bills miss out (assuming they want him) if they trade down?

[Augie]

I don’t see anything as a given right now......it all depends upon how things shake out around us. Have to wait and see, remain nimble. (Which brings Ghostbusters to mind, but.......I digress.) 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 hours ago, Rockinon said:

I don't really bye the OP's take on this. If the Bills stay at 9, I can't see it happening.  No one is going to accept a bunch of late round picks for that move(from our perspective sounds great....not so much for a trade partner).  However, if there is a trade down that gives us another 2nd, then yea, I can see a move up into the 1st using one of the 2nds to get there along with a later pick. I also don't like the idea of waiting 2-3 rounds mid draft to be able to pick again.

 

I think if we trade down first, the chances of getting 2 1st rounders is very likely.  I also think it's pretty likely we bundle some late rounders to move up. We don't need 10 picks, but we also don't want to be waiting 3 rounds before our next pick is up.  Have to be flexible if our overall draft is going to be a success.

 

 

Agree, these late round picks get you little of anything,  Would the Bills like to go from 10 picks to 6 or 7 good picks sure, but hard to do with the picks they have now.They could trade their 2nd 3rd  to get to the bottom of the 1st, but overall I wouldn't be all that happy with that move as the team needs more than two high quality players.   Trading down could give you an extra 2nd and maybe even another 4th.  Then could trade all your 4ths to get back into the bottom half of the 3rd. That wouldn't be too bad then with two firsts and two thirds.  Maybe two fifths and the sixth could even get you a bottom 4th back too.   Maybe could even get a 4th rounder for Zay Jones??

[billsredneck1]

On 4/8/2019 at 8:45 AM, FeelingOnYouboty said:

I can see it happening as well. We have too many picks and not enough roster spots. 

 

Sneaky suspicion the guy they're targeting is Jerry Tillery.

well if they trade down a few spots and do get tillery.....he was like ? no. 4 on chris simms's top 7 dt?  6'6" will be pushing 290 with an attitude....i'm thinking he and harry know each other. then get zach allen or trade back into the 1st and grab a sliding clelin ferrell?  idk, my head is constantly dreaming crap up....next tuesday can't get here soon enough.

 

to all you rochester fans...where should i go to make sure i can be around fans and not have the old lady poo-poo the night up? btw. i'm a westsider.

[LABILLBACKER]

11 hours ago, Bring it said:

I like where we are at 9! At least, we can end up with a big improvement in the trenches or at lb! 9 seems early to take Hock but how long do you wait? He’s the best all around nfl ready TE. Maybe we can get back into the first round but not too much later.

 

Can’t wait!!!

If Hock is the target,  he'll be long gone by 15.  Obviously everything depends on finding a trade down partner who needs a qb. If you could somehow land TJH in the mid 1st and trade back up in the late 1st for Tillery or Dexter L. that would be huge. Not a fan of picking Metcalf anywhere in the 1st. They'll be wrs available later....

[Bring it]

10 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

If Hock is the target,  he'll be long gone by 15.  Obviously everything depends on finding a trade down partner who needs a qb. If you could somehow land TJH in the mid 1st and trade back up in the late 1st for Tillery or Dexter L. that would be huge. Not a fan of picking Metcalf anywhere in the 1st. They'll be wrs available later....

You’re probably right on with Hock. It seems strange to be looking at a TE at 9 but in today’s situation with college tight ends it’s necessary if you want an all around complete player! I’ll be happy as long as we get great talent somewhere!

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

 

Agree, these late round picks get you little of anything,  Would the Bills like to go from 10 picks to 6 or 7 good picks sure, but hard to do with the picks they have now.They could trade their 2nd 3rd  to get to the bottom of the 1st, but overall I wouldn't be all that happy with that move as the team needs more than two high quality players.   Trading down could give you an extra 2nd and maybe even another 4th.  Then could trade all your 4ths to get back into the bottom half of the 3rd. That wouldn't be too bad then with two firsts and two thirds.  Maybe two fifths and the sixth could even get you a bottom 4th back too.   Maybe could even get a 4th rounder for Zay Jones??

I don't get into these detailed discussions of this for that, but you raise an interesting point.  There could be a trade back from 9 and a several trades packaging the day 3 picks.  Bills could end up with a late first rounder and about 5 picks in the second third and fourth.  I'd be good with that. 

 

But that's all dreaming.  If they like what they see at 9 there will be no trade. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

22 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Who is the skinny guy?

ferrell

 

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

ferrell

 

He’s 6’4” and 265 lbs. Jerry Hughes is 6’2” and 254 lbs.

[maryland-bills-fan]

4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

He’s 6’4” and 265 lbs. Jerry Hughes is 6’2” and 254 lbs.

To me, he looks skinny. 2" taller, each arm 1" longer, different body frame type.

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

To me, he looks skinny. 2" taller, each arm 1" longer, different body frame type.

Jadeveon Clowney measured 6’5” and 266 lbs at the combine with 34 1/2” arms. Ferrell measured 6’4” and 264lbs with 34 1/8” arms. Ferrell’s measurements aren’t a problem.