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Zerovoltz Draft Analysis


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Just now, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

Didn't think he was still around. Thought he became a chiefs fan after they got Mahomes?

 

 

He posts on another respectable Bills site... Not sure if I can mention it.. he still has very strong opinions.. 

 

 

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7 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

My thoughts on this draft.

 

1.  This a ONE QB draft.  Kyler Murray is it.  (it could be 2 IF Grier ends up in a good spot)  I love Murray and I like Grier.  The rest of the QB's in this class are garbage.  Grier would need to land in a place like Cincinnatti where he'd have a chance to supplant the starter in order for this to become a two QB class.  Unfortunately for Grier, I get the impression that a team like Indy or Carolina would take him and he'll ride the bench behind a well established starter.

 

2.  This draft has a TON of DL blue chip prospects at the top. 

 

3.  Combine the idea here that it's a one QB draft, and that the blue chips will be available into the 20's and that means your going to have a draft with little or no trading at the top.  With no QB to go up for, none of the teams like Washington or Miami will be inclined to pay a price to move up for the 2nd QB in this draft who is probably every bit as good (or bad as the case may be) as the 8th QB.  Also, if you can get a Blue chip defender at 20, why trade up to 8, 9 etc?  The market conditions aren't going to be there for teams to want to pay to move up.  

 

4.  This all means the Bills and others up at the top will be staying put and making a selection.  And so, with the 9th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select TJ Hockensen, TE, Iowa.  My thought here is the Bills believe in their defense and their scheme.  By getting involved in an attempt to trade for Antonio Brown, the front office has shown they are all in on getting Josh Allen weaponry.  The Bills do not have a weapon at TE on their roster.  Hockensen would start from day 1 and make an immedeate impact.

 

5.  The Giants won't take a QB in round 1.  The Broncos won't take a QB in round 1.  The Dolphins won't take a QB in round 1.  The Redskins won't take a QB in round 1 (because I think they will be trading their pick to Arizona for Rosen)  In fact, after Murray, the other QB's are going to slide down the board....again, based on my assesment that these QB's suck, coupled with the blue chippers into the 20's...no reason to draft a flawed QB high when you can get the same flawed guy in round 4.  I wouldn't be entirely surprised at all if only Murray goes in round 1.

 

6.  Round 2 will see several WR that will prove to be good value selections.

 

Yes, I know you all don't care for the Chiefs fans perspective, but this is high quality analysis and I provide it for free. :D

 

So here is my take on each:

 

1. It is certainly a one quarterback class in the sense of true first round talents. I am higher than you on Haskins have him as a 1st / 2nd borderline, and I do think he goes in the 1st. Not in the top 10 though. In the teens somewhere. 

 

2. Obviously, yes. 

 

3. There will be some movement. You always have a team or two who move up for a non QB and surprise people. I wouldn't be shocked if you get a team with an OL need moving up for Taylor or Williams. But overall fewer trades than last year in the 1st is a pretty safe bet. 

 

4. If Ed Oliver is there I would be shocked if the Bills don't take him. You might be slightly out of the Buffalo loop as a Chiefs fan but they have met with Oliver about 5 times had him in here, been out to Houston to meet with him... if he is there at #9 he is the pick. If he is not there then I do think Hock is in play. 

 

5. Largely agree. Think Washington may end up taking Haskins in the teens. Don't think they are trading for Rosen.... they already flipped a pick for Keenum don't think they will trade for another QB - they will draft one inside the first 3 rounds. Agree Giants and Dolphins not going QB.... Denver won't at #10 but I don't totally rule out them trading back in at the end of the 1st if they do, as reported, really like Drew Lock. 

 

6. Agreed. 

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5 hours ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I assume you think Grier is not good-I watched him play about 6 games this year and all were impressive-did you see him stink in some game? I am not an expert but he seems like the most NFL ready QB-reminded me of Josh Rosen, just no concussions.

 

My first exposure to him was his total meltdown against Oklahoma State in 2017. I have seen him play a couple of good games since and come back to him a bit but that was so bad it is hard to get totally out of my head. 

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Only a West Virginia fan (are there any of them outside the state?) could think Grier is a good NFL QB prospect.

 

He is the 2nd coming of Matt McGloin, a perennial NFL 3rd stringer who somehow always ends up on an NFL roster, at least until a team finds a better option.

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The Bills’ D is not “set” by any means. If they can add a blue chipper on the DL at 9 I can’t imagine them passing it up. They can get one of the three top TEs in the 2nd (or they may try to trade back into the first). 

 

My $.02...

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15 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

 

It's fluid enough right now that I wouldn't either bet for or against what you are saying here.

 

16 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

3.  Combine the idea here that it's a one QB draft, and that the blue chips will be available into the 20's and that means your going to have a draft with little or no trading at the top.  With no QB to go up for, none of the teams like Washington or Miami will be inclined to pay a price to move up for the 2nd QB in this draft who is probably every bit as good (or bad as the case may be) as the 8th QB.  Also, if you can get a Blue chip defender at 20, why trade up to 8, 9 etc?  The market conditions aren't going to be there for teams to want to pay to move up.  

 

So here's the thing - I agree with you in regards to your assessment of this QB class, and will even go so far as to say that there isn't a QB in this draft class worth taking in the first round. However, this is the NFL and the premium that is placed on the QB position gives it this unicorn draft value every year that, regardless of the talent, there will be at least one team reaching for a QB in the first. And at the rate teams have done so in the past I wouldn't be surprised to see 2-3 drafted in the first round. 

 

Now to your point of trading up/down/sideways/whatever - teams trade up for other positions that aren't QB. This is just a matter of fact. Maybe not with equivalent frequency but certainly in good number, considering it's how we got our LB last year. While this class is littered with DL depth, there are other positions with players that teams may consider to be exceptionally high value and trade up for that specific player. Additionally, teams may value one specific player as a scheme fit or for various scouting superlatives that, to them, stands out among the entirety of the rest of the class and would like to trade up for that one player regardless of position. Nothing about this QB class, or the classes in any year for that matter, precludes a trade scenario for any team. It may make the forecast more cloudy than sunny - but marginally so, if at all.

 

I can never fully understand the talks about pick values and the chart for this reason either - every year is a different class of talent, at different positions, with variable depth. The first overall pick is not equivalent to the first overall pick from previous year's drafts - nor are the players comparable in the least at that pick. Further, the same can be said for the value of pick 75 in this class compared to other year's, since the depth of talent is so much greater this year. You can also bet that teams value these picks and players very differently, and there will be GMs calling for potential trades come draft day. But all this to say, we can guess all we want with varying degrees of accuracy and logic - the Bills' chances of trading down/up/or out of the draft altogether are still all the same. 

 

This is about par for this time of year...next two weeks will see exponential spikes until the 25th.

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8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

My first exposure to him was his total meltdown against Oklahoma State in 2017. I have seen him play a couple of good games since and come back to him a bit but that was so bad it is hard to get totally out of my head. 

I saw the end of that game and he looked bad but no on his team helped him. I definitely though see where you are coming from then.

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if  only ONE QB is worth drafting in the  first round....couldn't  that  mean MORE D linemen would be  be picked, not fewer?  If you trade down to 12,15 or 20, you have  fewer DL options to choose from  because, as you said, this draft is loaded with DL talent. I wouldn't assume teams  will wait on impact players dropping to them. Beane claims he will go BPA. If Bills take Hockenson at #9,and want a DT, they have to take someone like Tillary in the 2nd. If they select Oliver , Wilkins, Sweat,et.al at #9, they could maye get Irv Smith in the  2nd, possibly wait for Josh Oliver or Knox? So which combo ,overall, has more value? Hockenson/Tillary or Oliver/Smith?

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- I've been sleepless for nights wondering where Zero's mock is.    

 

- Just wondering...don't the Chiefs have a message board or are you so brilliant, you have to share your thoughts across all NFL fanbases?

 

- I love people who refer to themselves in the 3rd person.

 

 

WTF has happened to TSW?

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29 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

- I've been sleepless for nights wondering where Zero's mock is.    

 

- Just wondering...don't the Chiefs have a message board or are you so brilliant, you have to share your thoughts across all NFL fanbases?

 

- I love people who refer to themselves in the 3rd person.

 

 

WTF has happened to TSW?

 

im here because this place is fun and has knowledgeable fans.  Chiefs fans in general are big homers.  Every fan base has them but on Chiefsplanet, etc, it’s not easy or fun to try and have an intelligent football discussion.  Some of the best conversations about football I’ve had are with people like transplant or hapless bills fan, jay fix it and riverside.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Just putting this here so I can refer back to all my prediction and analysis in one spot.

 

Quarterbacks.....I think many  have missevaluated the QB position as it pertains to where these guys will be drafted because the last 3 classes have produced so well. I think that people are assuming there must be 3 or 4 good QB in a class now just because that has been the recent trend. What I think people have completely missed is that teams are evaluating the position more accurately. That has coincided with the last 3 classes having good QB's in them. 

2016. First Round.

GOFF
WENTZ 
Lynch

2017. First Round
TRUBISKY
MAHOMES
WATSON

2018 First Round
MAYFIELD
DARNOLD?
ALLEN?
ROSEN?
JACKSON?

Every player on this list except Lynch is their teams starter. Rosen technically is...but will be traded and is considered a good prospect still. 

All 5 from the 2016 and 2017 have already played in at least one playoff game. 

Without going too deep, you could make a reasonable argument that all 5 of those QB's were absolutely correct choices, who had, for the most part, been correctly evaluated by the teams who took them. You can make a very strong case that none are busts. You can make a decent case that all 5 2018 QB's have worked out so far (I would argue that isn't quite the case yet, but for this argument, I'm going with the thought these guys are considered legit) 

If you believe, as I do, that teams have in fact, improved at their evaluation of the QB position, AND you believe that this group isn't that good. ( I think it's a poor group after Murray) Then, to me, that means these QB's are going to fall farther than people think. 

 Denver...I..Elway has CORRECTLY evaluated this draft class as far as QB goes. His coaching hire also is a STRONG indication that Elway still believes that he has a good roster that needs better coaching and simply, average QB play to win. He didn't hire Vic Fangio to develop a drafted QB. Fangio is going to win with Defense and Flacco or he is getting fired and the next coach gets to develop the drafted QBOTF that would come later on. I believe ALL QB will be on the board at 10 when Denver picks...they won't have a trade partner, and will stay there and select a defender.

The one team poised to actually take their next QB right now is the Bengals. New offensive minded coach. No extension for Dalton. Dalton can be cut anytime with no dead money right now. The Bengals are prone to doing things to sell tickets. Haskins makes sense for these reasons.

The other surprises here are going to be the teams eveyrone thinks will go QB and they are will not be. The Giants have Dave Gettleman....who is bound and determined to prove everyone wrong about his drafting philosphy......If they don't take a QB at 6 (they won't) then they aren't taking one at 17 either. I can't see Gettleman liking any of these guys enough to swallow his pride and stake his reputation on. His odds of hitting on a defender at 6 and maybe a WR at 17, are alot better than hitting on a QB (especially this year) He'll be able to show his detractors that he was right to take the guys he took and they'll go forward another year with Eli.

The Redskins are going to roll with Keenum and McCoy. The Redskins are NOT going to give this front office and coaching staff the benefit of more time that you'd get with a new QB to develop. They need to win now and they have some good pieces on D. They'll take a player who can help now....that isn't one of these iffy QBs. 

The Dolphins are an enigma. They are rolling with Fitz. They are reportedly going to consider this year a tank/blow up year. They did hire a new coach, so the grace etc needed for the new QB that new coaches gets, exists here. I don't see them considering themselves as ready to draft a QB now. I think they want to get through this year of cap hell and blow up the roster and see how next years class shakes out. No reason to start your rebuild with a QB who they won't start, and have no confidence in starting. 

That leaves late round trade ups to consider....Lock will be a juicy target for someone perhaps later....but with the depth of defensive and TE talent in this draft...I can see no moves back into round 1 for Lock, Jones or anyone else. 

The class just isn't that good, and the circumstances of the teams who are percieved to need QB's aren't aligned with a desperation move....combine that with what I believe are improved scouting efforts and you have a 1st round that has TWO Qb's drafted.

Edited by Zerovotlz
grammar
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Word on the street now is that the Cardinals will not draft Murray because after all the speculation that they'll take him, they're having a hard time selling tix.    If true, that organization is an even bigger dumpster fire than I thought.

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28 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

Just putting this here so I can refer back to all my prediction and analysis in one spot.

 

Quarterbacks.....I think many  have missevaluated the QB position as it pertains to where these guys will be drafted because the last 3 classes have produced so well. I think that people are assuming there must be 3 or 4 good QB in a class now just because that has been the recent trend. What I think people have completely missed is that teams are evaluating the position more accurately. That has coincided with the last 3 classes having good QB's in them. 

2016. First Round.

GOFF
WENTZ 
Lynch

2017. First Round
TRUBISKY
MAHOMES
WATSON

2018 First Round
MAYFIELD
DARNOLD?
ALLEN?
ROSEN?
JACKSON?

Every player on this list except Lynch is their teams starter. Rosen technically is...but will be traded and is considered a good prospect still. 

All 5 from the 2016 and 2017 have already played in at least one playoff game. 

Without going too deep, you could make a reasonable argument that all 5 of those QB's were absolutely correct choices, who had, for the most part, been correctly evaluated by the teams who took them. You can make a very strong case that none are busts. You can make a decent case that all 5 2018 QB's have worked out so far (I would argue that isn't quite the case yet, but for this argument, I'm going with the thought these guys are considered legit) 

If you believe, as I do, that teams have in fact, improved at their evaluation of the QB position, AND you believe that this group isn't that good. ( I think it's a poor group after Murray) Then, to me, that means these QB's are going to fall farther than people think. 

 Denver...I..Elway has CORRECTLY evaluated this draft class as far as QB goes. His coaching hire also is a STRONG indication that Elway still believes that he has a good roster that needs better coaching and simply, average QB play to win. He didn't hire Vic Fangio to develop a drafted QB. Fangio is going to win with Defense and Flacco or he is getting fired and the next coach gets to develop the drafted QBOTF that would come later on. I believe ALL QB will be on the board at 10 when Denver picks...they won't have a trade partner, and will stay there and select a defender.

The one team poised to actually take their next QB right now is the Bengals. New offensive minded coach. No extension for Dalton. Dalton can be cut anytime with no dead money right now. The Bengals are prone to doing things to sell tickets. Haskins makes sense for these reasons.

The other surprises here are going to be the teams eveyrone thinks will go QB and they are will not be. The Giants have Dave Gettleman....who is bound and determined to prove everyone wrong about his drafting philosphy......If they don't take a QB at 6 (they won't) then they aren't taking one at 17 either. I can't see Gettleman liking any of these guys enough to swallow his pride and stake his reputation on. His odds of hitting on a defender at 6 and maybe a WR at 17, are alot better than hitting on a QB (especially this year) He'll be able to show his detractors that he was right to take the guys he took and they'll go forward another year with Eli.

The Redskins are going to roll with Keenum and McCoy. The Redskins are NOT going to give this front office and coaching staff the benefit of more time that you'd get with a new QB to develop. They need to win now and they have some good pieces on D. They'll take a player who can help now....that isn't one of these iffy QBs. 

The Dolphins are an enigma. They are rolling with Fitz. They are reportedly going to consider this year a tank/blow up year. They did hire a new coach, so the grace etc needed for the new QB that new coaches gets, exists here. I don't see them considering themselves as ready to draft a QB now. I think they want to get through this year of cap hell and blow up the roster and see how next years class shakes out. No reason to start your rebuild with a QB who they won't start, and have no confidence in starting. 

That leaves late round trade ups to consider....Lock will be a juicy target for someone perhaps later....but with the depth of defensive and TE talent in this draft...I can see no moves back into round 1 for Lock, Jones or anyone else. 

The class just isn't that good, and the circumstances of the teams who are percieved to need QB's aren't aligned with a desperation move....combine that with what I believe are improved scouting efforts and you have a 1st round that has TWO Qb's drafted.

Agreed.  This QB class is terrible.  I believe Murray goes 1 and no other teams drafts one until rd 2 or maybe in a trade up to end of rd 1.  All the talk about teams trading up with us to get ahead of the Broncos is hilarious.  No one is trading up for these bums

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When I saw that this thread had come back to the front page and clicked on it, I was not expecting that it would contain 4 pictures of Zero's wife. The bosom-y shot was particularly out of left field. And also...it made me like him more? Is that weird? I mean, it takes brass balls to just be like "here's a picture of my wife in a mild state of undress, you heathen football loving strangers!". So....props.

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On 4/7/2019 at 8:38 PM, Shaw66 said:

Thanks. That's interesting analysis.

 

Bill's will take BPA, whatever position he plays. 

 

Agree, unless it’s a QB.

Some people just don’t believe in the BPA concept.

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2 hours ago, Doc said:

Word on the street now is that the Cardinals will not draft Murray because after all the speculation that they'll take him, they're having a hard time selling tix.    If true, that organization is an even bigger dumpster fire than I thought.

 

The reason they were all in on him in the first place was partly tickets. The owner is flailing around in the dark for a reason to make fans attend. 

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On 4/7/2019 at 8:02 PM, Zerovotlz said:

My thoughts on this draft.

 

1.  This a ONE QB draft.  Kyler Murray is it.  (it could be 2 IF Grier ends up in a good spot)  I love Murray and I like Grier.  The rest of the QB's in this class are garbage.  Grier would need to land in a place like Cincinnatti where he'd have a chance to supplant the starter in order for this to become a two QB class.  Unfortunately for Grier, I get the impression that a team like Indy or Carolina would take him and he'll ride the bench behind a well established starter.

 

2.  This draft has a TON of DL blue chip prospects at the top. 

 

3.  Combine the idea here that it's a one QB draft, and that the blue chips will be available into the 20's and that means your going to have a draft with little or no trading at the top.  With no QB to go up for, none of the teams like Washington or Miami will be inclined to pay a price to move up for the 2nd QB in this draft who is probably every bit as good (or bad as the case may be) as the 8th QB.  Also, if you can get a Blue chip defender at 20, why trade up to 8, 9 etc?  The market conditions aren't going to be there for teams to want to pay to move up.  

 

4.  This all means the Bills and others up at the top will be staying put and making a selection.  And so, with the 9th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select TJ Hockensen, TE, Iowa.  My thought here is the Bills believe in their defense and their scheme.  By getting involved in an attempt to trade for Antonio Brown, the front office has shown they are all in on getting Josh Allen weaponry.  The Bills do not have a weapon at TE on their roster.  Hockensen would start from day 1 and make an immedeate impact.

 

5.  The Giants won't take a QB in round 1.  The Broncos won't take a QB in round 1.  The Dolphins won't take a QB in round 1.  The Redskins won't take a QB in round 1 (because I think they will be trading their pick to Arizona for Rosen)  In fact, after Murray, the other QB's are going to slide down the board....again, based on my assesment that these QB's suck, coupled with the blue chippers into the 20's...no reason to draft a flawed QB high when you can get the same flawed guy in round 4.  I wouldn't be entirely surprised at all if only Murray goes in round 1.

 

6.  Round 2 will see several WR that will prove to be good value selections.

 

Yes, I know you all don't care for the Chiefs fans perspective, but this is high quality analysis and I provide it for free. :D

 

Agree with all of this except for Grier.  Watch Gettleman take him at the top of the second round and think he got a steal.  Just like when Miami took Ginn and then Beck in the second.  I still remember Mueller and Cameron sitting in the presser acting like they put one over on the league. 

 

I think the rest is spot on though.  There will be DL taken in the second that would usually never make it close to the end of the first.  The QBs - aside from Murray - will fall.  Or rather they should fall. 

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7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The reason they were all in on him in the first place was partly tickets. The owner is flailing around in the dark for a reason to make fans attend. 

 

Selling tickets is a stupid reason to draft a player.  And the flaw with that premise is that there's no player in this draft who will sell tickets.

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Again...just posting my draft thoughts here so I can find them easily when I need to refer to them later...

 

Bosa is going to be a bust.

 

I've watched some film and here is what I think.  If he doesn't succeed with that first "swipe" then he's done.  NFL caliber offensive lineman are going to be able to control and contain Bosa consistantly.  Bosa MUST win with his hands right away to gain the advantage he needs to be effective as a pass rusher.  He is otherwise limited due to his relatively short arms.  Throw in that he already has back problems.....that says BUST to me.  I think whoever gets him, will be dissappointed how often he can't win against good NFL caliber linemen.  

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On 4/7/2019 at 9:33 PM, Zerovotlz said:

 

I get this alot.  I am not Jeffismagic.  ....ironically, I post on a Denver Broncos board (and also Jetsnation) as Zerovoltz, and over there, those guys think I am also a Pat Mahomes guy who reinvented a new name etc.  I'm really Zerovoltz.  From KC.  I live in Dallas/Ft Worth.  I met and took pictures with Poncho Billa at the 2018 draft.  My wife is a hot asian woman.  

 

You are not allowed to post that on this board without a picture.  And this is not for me since I already have an Asian woman (married 31 years, import wife and domestic cars is my philosophy) and just returned from Hong Kong and saw hot Asian women every day.

On 4/7/2019 at 9:59 PM, Zerovotlz said:

I actually spelled it wrong the day I signed up for this place.  

 

You can actually change your name.

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4 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

You are not allowed to post that on this board without a picture.  And this is not for me since I already have an Asian woman (married 31 years, import wife and domestic cars is my philosophy) and just returned from Hong Kong and saw hot Asian women every day.

 

You can actually change your name.

Go back a page...pictures there.  

 

How do I change my name?.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

Go back a page...pictures there.  

 

How do I change my name?.

 

 

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/settings/

You might need a minimum number of posts or time to change

You could also (You might need a minimum number of posts or time to change) just change title to aka correct spelling.

 

If those do not work try posting in this forum:

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/forum/11-customer-service/

 

Oh and other teams fans are generally welcome unless they act like WEO (troll).

3 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

Figured it out.  Name updated.  

 

Also...wanted to put this here so I can find it and refer to it much more easily.  PLEASE NOTE THE DATE!  ...This was written almost 3 months BEFORE the 2018 Draft.

 

 

 

Looks like you did it when I was composing post explaining options for you.

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I don't agree, but it is a legit take on the draft.  I think it is a given that the QB quality in this draft, apart from Murray, isn't what it was a year ago.  That said, when teams need QBs, they REALLY NEED QBs.  Because they do fear that they won't get the QB they really need because they waited too long is a powerful motivation.  Somebody, and probably several somebodies with take QBs earlier than the quality of those QBs merit.  I don't know if that will affect the top 10 picks in the draft, but I'm not counting out the possibility.  In any case, Buffalo will have several possible prospects to choose from.  Hockenson is one of them.  I think the Bills could do a lot worse.

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