Kipers predictions for last year Round 1

[BillsfaninSB]

Predicting the draft is impossible.  Get 1 guy wrong in top 3 and it probably throws the whole thing off. 

[njbuff]

I have always stated mock drafts are TOTALLY useless.

 

For example, I give you last year...................

 

Did anyone in their right minds have the Bills trading up to draft Edmunds? It wasn't even in my thought train.

 

Wake me up on draft night.

Edited February 12, 2019 by njbuff

[Don Beebe]

Kipper said that Thurman Thomas was a wasted draft pick. That tells you all you need to know.

[row_33]

34 minutes ago, njbuff said:

I have always stated mock drafts are TOTALLY useless.

 

For example, I give you last year...................

 

Did anyone in their right minds have the Bills trading up to draft Edmunds? It wasn't even in my thought train.

 

Wake me up on draft night.

 

Fans like to speculate, draft predictions is totally not my bag though 

 

[Beast]

Kipper knows a lot about the college players coming out but it seems like he just doesn’t know a whole lot about NFL teams and why certain players will/won’t fit in with respective teams.

[papazoid]

nobody gets em all right

 

this mock was done before the combine

 

of his top 11 picks....all but 1 went in the top 11

some guys only do one...the day before the draft.....easier to be accurate

 

[GreggTX]

You are correct, OP. The odds of getting even half a dozen 1st round picks right are ridiculously small, but there's nothing else for NFL fans to do this time of year, so the mocks will continue.

 

And there will be that 1 in a million guy that will nail a bunch of those picks and spend the rest of the year bragging about it to his friends in his fantasy football league.

[CincyBillsFan]

17 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

 

 

Interesting that he had Josh going first to the Browns and Tremaine going to daBears at 8.

 

 

 

So Kiper is now the Bill's biggest fan at espn. 

[Jay_Fixit]

17 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

Well, he got ONE out of 32 correct (saquon to the Gmen)

 

Interesting that he had Josh going first to the Browns and Tremaine going to daBears at 8.

 

I posted this because I forgot how ridiculously off the mark every mock is, every year without fail.   I think the only time I ever guessed right on the Bills was Dareus, and a lot of people saw that happening.

 

Kiper may be a blowhard, but he's well connected and he has a 97% fail rate. 

Right in the meaty part of the curve....

https://www.espnsa.com/2018-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-mel-kipers-picks-1-32/

 

 

Mocks. Lol

[BakersBills]

17 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

Well, he got ONE out of 32 correct (saquon to the Gmen)

 

Interesting that he had Josh going first to the Browns and Tremaine going to daBears at 8.

 

I posted this because I forgot how ridiculously off the mark every mock is, every year without fail.   I think the only time I ever guessed right on the Bills was Dareus, and a lot of people saw that happening.

 

Kiper may be a blowhard, but he's well connected and he has a 97% fail rate. 

Right in the meaty part of the curve....

https://www.espnsa.com/2018-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-mel-kipers-picks-1-32/

 

 

 

he doesnt predict trades but wasnt far off of placement

[Punching Bag]

15 hours ago, MDH said:

Not sure why anyone cares if someone's mock is "accurate." They don't know who a team is going to take. The thing these pundits should be held accountable for is their assessment of the players.

 

They are called mocks for a reason.  You should mock anyone making or believing in them.

[Buffalo86]

15 hours ago, MDH said:

Not sure why anyone cares if someone's mock is "accurate." They don't know who a team is going to take. The thing these pundits should be held accountable for is their assessment of the players.

 

Totally agree.  For example, say Mel Kiper proclaimed that if Jimmy Clausen wasn't a successful QB within 8 years, Kiper would retire... it would be totally fair to wonder what Kiper's still doing there today, 9 years later.

 

“If Jimmy Clausen is not a successful quarterback in the NFL, I’m done. That’s it. I’m out.”

Replied McShay: “What is your time frame, Mel? When do we make that assessment?”

Kiper: “I want eight years.”

McShay: “It will only take three years, Mel. We can tell inside three years.”

Kiper: “I want eight.”

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/19/17226834/mel-kiper-jimmy-clausen-nfl-draft-bet

[Misterbluesky]

6 hours ago, Just Joshin' said:

The only thing worse than taking a mock draft serious is rating a mock draft right after the draft.

And what's even worse is predicting teams records before FA and the draft take place.

How many people really think the Bills will go 5-11 or 6-10 next year when they have a full set of picks and 80 million in savings to spend on new talent this spring/summer?

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Saw that thread the other day that had Foster and Wallace as potential 1st round picks. Even if in reality, in a re-draft they were selected in the 2nd or 3rd, to go that high from being undrafted, after all the interviews, film study workouts, etc. shows me how little the scouts, front office, etc really know about who's going to be a star and who's a dud.

[Punching Bag]

1 minute ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Saw that thread the other day that had Foster and Wallace as potential 1st round picks. Even if in reality, in a re-draft they were selected in the 2nd or 3rd, to go that high from being undrafted, after all the interviews, film study workouts, etc. shows me how little the scouts, front office, etc really know about who's going to be a star and who's a dud.

 

With Foster they probably felt he was not ready to put in the work at the time and he was right.  He needed to hit bottom before he was.

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Kiper is terrible at that too.  He has a long history of ripping teams who pass on guys he says they should take then takes no accountability when said player goes on to be a total bust.  He does this year after year, and it’s why he has about as much respect around the NFL as Skip Bayless.  

 

All mocks are impossible, but it’s the god complex Kiper has about himself and his opinion that make him such a blow hard.  McShay and Mayock don’t get anywhere near the same blow back, and Mayock had enough respect of his analytical abilities that he got a REAL NFL job as a GM now.

 

If Kiper was even half as good as he thinks he is at projecting players, then teams would have been offering him jobs for years.  Instead he is seen as more of a clown across the league like Skip Bayless is.

 

 

The idea that teams would run around offering jobs to good mockers is ridiculous. Picking good players for one particular team (scouts / personnel guys) taking into account what the coach tells you he needs and what you learn from interviewing and private workouts and doing all that while fitting into a little bureaucracy/hierarchy/mechanism/structure is a different skill from what mockers do, which is attempt with no mathematical chance of being correct the matches between teams and players.

 

Will Mayock be good? I have no idea, but it's the Raiders. A lot of questions remain. And comparing Mayock and Kiper ignores the massive differences between them. Mayock is an insider compared to Kiper. He's worked for NFL films and the NFL Network, he played, and he's smooth and personable. Kiper is an outsider. Why would anyone think a guy like him would do well in a bureaucracy or a hierarchy? What did Mayock say at his intro PC? "I've been in all 32 buildings for the last fifteen years. I know what it looks, I know what it smells like." Mayock is pretty much the only mock drafter who can say that, or anything like it.

 

Kiper works on evaluating players, but then matching them to teams while being entertaining. It's a different skill set.

 

As for being seen as a clown ... maybe by some fans. Seen by the FOs as part of and maybe one of the faces of an industry that's essentially annoying to the FOs, though completely necessary to football as a whole? Yeah. But Kiper is well-known as a guy with a spectacular rolodex ... well, a spectacularly contact list of FO connections. One of the four or five best in the industry.

 

Was Kiper way too overboard about what he knew, especially as a young guy? Yeah, sure. That old clip where he attacks Tobin is clearly overboard, though it was great TV. He's mellowed out considerably since then. He still stands by his opinion but doesn't attack the GMs the way he did.

Edited February 13, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Your Brown Eye]

[row_33]

Kiper didn’t predict that top pick would tear his knee, so he’s no good.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, Misterbluesky said:

And what's even worse is predicting teams records before FA and the draft take place.

How many people really think the Bills will go 5-11 or 6-10 next year when they have a full set of picks and 80 million in savings to spend on new talent this spring/summer?

 

 

This is fair enough, a good point, really.

 

But the bottom line is that mocks are hugely possible for a reason. And that reason is that they combat boredom in a massively boring time of year. I respect people who aren't interested yet. I read a lot of them this time of year, personally, while still being aware that we know far too little to be realistic about team needs.

 

They get me thinking.

Edited February 13, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Misterbluesky]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

This is fair enough, a good point, really.

 

But the bottom line is that mocks are hugely possible for a reason. And that reason is that they combat boredom in a massively boring time of year. I respect people who aren't interested yet. I read a lot of them this time of year, personally, while still being aware that we know far too little to be realistic about team needs.

 

They get me thinking.

But...but...we have the AAF to watch.

Kidding,of course.

[WideRightRevenge]

18 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yes he is an entertainer like Skip Bayless or Stephen A. Smith...not a guy with a track record of accuracy.  If you find entertainment value in him, great, thats his job.  If you look to him for more accurate projections and insight, he's not very good at that compared to others even though he has a god complex about his own opinions like Stephen A. Smith.  

 

And you dont have to tell me the bolded, I proclaim that all the time.  GMs are wrong more than they are right...thats because its impossible to accurately predict the future at a high rate of success.  However, Kiper is no where near the realm of accuracy of successful GM's, yet he blasts them and blasts them hard when they pick a player Kiper doesn't agree with despite the fact those GM's know a massive amount more than Kiper does about Football, player projections and the players themselves.  Kiper has to review the entire college football program...GMs and Scouts spend substantial amounts of more time analyzing specific players they believe will specifically fit into that teams plans, schemes, and philosophy.  So they have a lot more insight when they pick a specific player than Kiper.

 

So once again, the reason Kiper gets so much flack is that he projects this god complex about his opinion over those who are paid a lot of money to know more than him about football, the draft, and the players.  He never accepts any accountability for how wrong he is so frequently, never apologizes to any teams he blasted that prove their pick was the right choice over his.  He just keeps going like he's never been wrong.  

 

Kipers only value is to help casual fans know some names they wouldnt really know if not for people like him.  However, there are more likable and more accurate sources for the same information out there.  Just like sports show hosts Skip Bayless and Stephen A. Smith...they are entertainment value for those who find their schtick entertaining...but if you want more accurate assessments, more grounded opinions (not rooted in click bait antics), and a deeper discussion of sports there are better choices out there than those two buffoons.  

 

In today's ESPN quick hit society ... please share your other sources for us "casual fans" who actually appreciate Mel and what he does.  You say above he is not a guy with a track record of accuracy.  He hit 8 of the top 10 picks last year (granted not by right team) .. the drop outs were Rosen and Edmunds.  You may not like his personality, but you have to respect the niche he created.

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

11 hours ago, Misterbluesky said:

And what's even worse is predicting teams records before FA and the draft take place.

How many people really think the Bills will go 5-11 or 6-10 next this year when they have a full set of picks and 80 million in savings to spend on new talent this spring/summer?

Here at TBD ...  I'd say at least half a dozen.   

 

8 hours ago, Misterbluesky said:

But...but...we have the AAF to watch.

Kidding,of course.

****er ...  I thought you were Gugny for a sec.   

 

well a few minutes.    

 

I look at the Avatars and not the name 90% of the time 

[jimmy10]

On 2/12/2019 at 12:50 AM, Da webster guy said:

Well, he got ONE out of 32 correct (saquon to the Gmen)

 

Interesting that he had Josh going first to the Browns and Tremaine going to daBears at 8.

 

I posted this because I forgot how ridiculously off the mark every mock is, every year without fail.   I think the only time I ever guessed right on the Bills was Dareus, and a lot of people saw that happening.

 

Kiper may be a blowhard, but he's well connected and he has a 97% fail rate. 

Right in the meaty part of the curve....

https://www.espnsa.com/2018-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-mel-kipers-picks-1-32/

 

 

 

It’s why I think mock drafts are a tremendous waste of time. Even those “in the know” don’t really know jack. You might as well just try to predict the order of a deck of cards. 

[without a drought]

It's best to use a mock draft from before the combine to prove a point.

[eball]

Don't get me started on the horrid track record of all of these draft experts.  I've said it before -- I can think of no other avocation besides "TV weatherman" for which there is less accountability for incorrect predictions.

 

It's why I pay absolutely NO attention to mock drafts.

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, WideRightRevenge said:

 

In today's ESPN quick hit society ... please share your other sources for us "casual fans" who actually appreciate Mel and what he does.  You say above he is not a guy with a track record of accuracy.  He hit 8 of the top 10 picks last year (granted not by right team) .. the drop outs were Rosen and Edmunds.  You may not like his personality, but you have to respect the niche he created.

 

 

One, my "casual fan" statement is not an insult to people who like him, I myself am also a casual fan of College Football where I won't know every prospect from every school.

 

Two, its ok to appreciate what Mel does, just like its ok for me to not like him. I have friends who enjoy Stephen A. Smith while myself and plenty others cant stand him.  People dont have to take it so personal that others dislike the guy.  He is a putz in my book, thats just my opinion.  

 

Three, why does everyone keep talking about the top 10?  I mean who cares, everyone gets most of the top 10 right in terms of what players are chosen.  Thats NOT a hard thing to do, there is ALWAYS a clear picture of who the most likely first 10 players are going to be.  Its not like someone projected to go 25th suddenly gets taken 3rd overall very often unless you are the Raiders drafting.  

 

This "top ten picks" keeps getting bought up as some kind of "validation" of Kiper, yet I beat him last year as a casual fan as I had 9 of the 10 players right.  The only person I had in top 10 that didn't go was Minkah and he went 11th, the guy I had not mocked top 10 was McGlitchey even though I had him top 15.  So I guess that makes me better than Kiper.  So no disrespect, but I could care less if he got 8 out of 10 right, just about everyone did the same thing or better.  Kiper also got most the teams wrong in the top 10, I beat him there too decisively...and I am no one special nor am I paid to do this for a living.  

[maryland-bills-fan]

I would like to see  the following, which would be a good way to evaluate the evaluators.   My assumption  is that teams may have special needs, but that mainly best player available is going to be  at lest twice as important and will win out.  Thye should be smart enought to know if say DE are good or really need this year and adjust accordingly.      [1]  Make a list of draft-experts order of players selected.. [2] make a list of players selected in what order. [3] Compare the two.   [4]  score how successful they were and grade them on various methods.  For example:   #1  correct draft slot = 5 points,,,,,,,,, +/- 1 gives 4 points, ,,,,,,+/- 3 gives 2 points..............etc.   You can try different statistic smoothing function=  #n boxcar, triangular, linear etc. to grade how much a "miss' is counted. (background in statistical process control- sorry, but I'm retired now).     Maybe I'll try some analysis and write up after the next draft.

 

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

One, my "casual fan" statement is not an insult to people who like him, I myself am also a casual fan of College Football where I won't know every prospect from every school.

 

Two, its ok to appreciate what Mel does, just like its ok for me to not like him. I have friends who enjoy Stephen A. Smith while myself and plenty others cant stand him.  People dont have to take it so personal that others dislike the guy.  He is a putz in my book, thats just my opinion.  

 

Three, why does everyone keep talking about the top 10?  I mean who cares, everyone gets most of the top 10 right in terms of what players are chosen.  Thats NOT a hard thing to do, there is ALWAYS a clear picture of who the most likely first 10 players are going to be.  Its not like someone projected to go 25th suddenly gets taken 3rd overall very often unless you are the Raiders drafting.  

 

This "top ten picks" keeps getting bought up as some kind of "validation" of Kiper, yet I beat him last year as a casual fan as I had 9 of the 10 players right.  The only person I had in top 10 that didn't go was Minkah and he went 11th, the guy I had not mocked top 10 was McGlitchey even though I had him top 15.  So I guess that makes me better than Kiper.  So no disrespect, but I could care less if he got 8 out of 10 right, just about everyone did the same thing or better.  Kiper also got most the teams wrong in the top 10, I beat him there too decisively...and I am no one special nor am I paid to do this for a living.  

TRUE  how many times do we see a 3rd round pick being the start 3 years down the road.  ?  If I had more time, I would figure out what round the all pro teams were drafted.

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Rating mock drafts based on if they accurately predict correct player to correct team is the wrong way to look at it. That's damn near impossible. Especially outside of the top 5 picks. And even the top five picks can get screwy as we often see. The way to judge a mock is how many players they correctly projected in the first round. And the order in which each player is taken at a specific position. If you have one player being the first taken at his position but he ends up being taken 5th in reality that will drag your Mock down. That's the way I look at it at least.

[Bangarang]

Why do people care so much about mock drafts? 

[WideRightRevenge]

21 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

One, my "casual fan" statement is not an insult to people who like him, I myself am also a casual fan of College Football where I won't know every prospect from every school.

 

Two, its ok to appreciate what Mel does, just like its ok for me to not like him. I have friends who enjoy Stephen A. Smith while myself and plenty others cant stand him.  People dont have to take it so personal that others dislike the guy.  He is a putz in my book, thats just my opinion.  

 

Three, why does everyone keep talking about the top 10?  I mean who cares, everyone gets most of the top 10 right in terms of what players are chosen.  Thats NOT a hard thing to do, there is ALWAYS a clear picture of who the most likely first 10 players are going to be.  Its not like someone projected to go 25th suddenly gets taken 3rd overall very often unless you are the Raiders drafting.  

 

This "top ten picks" keeps getting bought up as some kind of "validation" of Kiper, yet I beat him last year as a casual fan as I had 9 of the 10 players right.  The only person I had in top 10 that didn't go was Minkah and he went 11th, the guy I had not mocked top 10 was McGlitchey even though I had him top 15.  So I guess that makes me better than Kiper.  So no disrespect, but I could care less if he got 8 out of 10 right, just about everyone did the same thing or better.  Kiper also got most the teams wrong in the top 10, I beat him there too decisively...and I am no one special nor am I paid to do this for a living.  

 

Since you're a self proclaimed casual fan .. and you beat Mel head to head .. still waiting to hear the other resources you referenced in your post that you use for your pre draft intel as its obviously good given your draft picking acumen.

[PetermansRedemption]

On 2/12/2019 at 2:07 PM, Just Joshin' said:

The only thing worse than taking a mock draft serious is rating a mock draft right after the draft.

It is completely fair to review mock draft accuracy immediately after the draft. The picks have happened, you can compare them to someone’s mock quite easily.