Which is a better investment? Offense or Defense?

[iinii]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-nfl-cant-rely-on-defense/

[Dkollidas]

21st century. Offense. Build around your QB’s strengths. 

[vorpma]

Build a complete and dominant team that scores points and prevents your opponent from scoring points, it's kind of how you win consistently! And refrain from catering to fans who have a passing fancy wanting to be entertained by arena football excitement! 

[White Linen]

After you find your QB spend the most on:

 

DE

Corners

Wide Receivers

OT

[machine gun kelly]

We’ll spend 80% on offense between the two, and 20% on defense.  Hopefully it makes a difference.

[Chandler#81]

None of the Top 5 Defenses played the last 2 weekends. Case in point, we were the 2nd ranked D and we sucked. The times they are a changing. Try to obtain Pass rushers and DBs, but spend heavy on O.

[K-9]

All well and good until you can’t get a stop when you need one. 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

How much should we set aside for bribing officials?

[Alphadawg7]

47 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

None of the Top 5 Defenses played the last 2 weekends. Case in point, we were the 2nd ranked D and we sucked. The times they are a changing. Try to obtain Pass rushers and DBs, but spend heavy on O.

 

They have said this every year for almost 2 decades.  Greatest Show on Turf in St Louis was supposed to be the end to defense.  Wasnt true.  Never will be true.  

 

One season doesn't make a trend.  Last year, all final 4 teams were in the top 5 scoring defenses in the NFL. They were ranked #1, #2, #4, and #5.  

 

Mahomes:  50 TDs, 5000 yards.  Where is he watching the SB from?  Same place the Bills are.  Why?  Because his defense let the team down.  Saints and all that offensive fire power couldn't score in OT and then the D didn't stop the Rams in OT.  

 

High powered offenses are great, but there is a reason Peyton Manning was "One and Done" an NFL record 9 times in Indy...his defense sucked, while Brady is averaging a SB appearance every other year.  Brees has missed the playoffs MORE than he has made the playoffs the last 5 years...why because most the years his defense sucked.  Rivers, Ryan, Rodgers, Brees, etc all prolific...most often watching from home come playoff and Super Bowl time.  

 

The answer is you need some sort of balance.  Brady threw for 500 yards in the SB last year and lost.  Offense is great, but you better be able to get some stops too.  

 

That being said:  Our defense is set nicely...so for us, its time to go mostly OFFENSE.  Just like KC will be going mostly DEFENSE this offseason.  Its all case specific.  Most important position is the QB, once that is set you need to have a good offense, but you are asking for trouble if you ignore the defense.  

[formerlyofCtown]

2 hours ago, iinii said:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-nfl-cant-rely-on-defense/

Both must be tended to.  Just ask KC.

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

They have said this every year for almost 2 decades.  Greatest Show on Turf in St Louis was supposed to be the end to defense.  Wasnt true.  Never will be true.  

 

One season doesn't make a trend.  Last year, all final 4 teams were in the top 5 scoring defenses in the NFL. They were ranked #1, #2, #4, and #5.  

 

Mahomes:  50 TDs, 5000 yards.  Where is he watching the SB from?  Same place the Bills are.  Why?  Because his defense let the team down.  Saints and all that offensive fire power couldn't score in OT and then the D didn't stop the Rams in OT.  

 

High powered offenses are great, but there is a reason Peyton Manning was "One and Done" an NFL record 9 times in Indy...his defense sucked, while Brady is averaging a SB appearance every other year.  Brees has missed the playoffs MORE than he has made the playoffs the last 5 years...why because most the years his defense sucked.  Rivers, Ryan, Rodgers, Brees, etc all prolific...most often watching from home come playoff and Super Bowl time.  

 

The answer is you need some sort of balance.  Brady threw for 500 yards in the SB last year and lost.  Offense is great, but you better be able to get some stops too.  

 

That being said:  Our defense is set nicely...so for us, its time to go mostly OFFENSE.  Just like KC will be going mostly DEFENSE this offseason.  Its all case specific.  Most important position is the QB, once that is set you need to have a good offense, but you are asking for trouble if you ignore the defense.  

It would be something to have a KC@Buffalo AFC Championship game.  Where Buf beat NE three times to get there.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

None of the Top 5 Defenses played the last 2 weekends. Case in point, we were the 2nd ranked D and we sucked. The times they are a changing. Try to obtain Pass rushers and DBs, but spend heavy on O.

Well said. Surround Josh with great Olineman and weapons.  We've got existing Defensive talent so selectively fill holes on D but emphasize 75% on offense.

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Both must be tended to.  Just ask KC.

It would be something to have a KC@Buffalo AFC Championship game.  Where Buf beat NE three times to get there.

 

Hell yeah it would!!!  KC seems set up to be a favorite to reach the AFC Champ Game a lot over the next handful of years to say the least.  Their best players are all relatively young.  

 

I really think Buffalo is on that doorstep in the same way the Rams were after Goffs rookie year (although no one knew it yet) and the Bears were after Trubisky rookie year (although no one knew for sure yet).

 

In both those cases, they had some key defensive personnel in place and just finished a season with a rookie QB with little else on the offense around said rookie QB other than RB's.  Both teams completely overhauled the offensive personnel in one off season, especially at WR where both teams entered the next season with 3 new WRs atop the depth chart.  They also added some key changes on the OL too.  Yes both got new HC's, but our issue isnt at HC, so we are fine there.  

 

If we can put some talent around Josh this year and shore up the OL, this team very well could be this next years surprise young team that makes a leap to double digit wins and a deep playoff run.  Especially the way Josh has multiple times now made big strides in small windows of time.  Him having a full offseason as the unquestioned starter, a year in the system now, more weapons and protection and I think he is poised for a breakout season next year.

3 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Well said. Surround Josh with great Olineman and weapons.  We've got existing Defensive talent so selectively fill holes on D but emphasize 75% on offense.

 

Except for the fact last year, all 4 teams were ranked #1, #2, #4, and #5 in scoring defense.  One season doesn't make a trend, and the most prolific offense KC is at home because their D sucks. 

[formerlyofCtown]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Hell yeah it would!!!  KC seems set up to be a favorite to reach the AFC Champ Game a lot over the next handful of years to say the least.  Their best players are all relatively young.  

 

I really think Buffalo is on that doorstep in the same way the Rams were after Goffs rookie year (although no one knew it yet) and the Bears were after Trubisky rookie year (although no one knew for sure yet).

 

In both those cases, they had some key defensive personnel in place and just finished a season with a rookie QB with little else on the offense around said rookie QB other than RB's.  Both teams completely overhauled the offensive personnel in one off season, especially at WR where both teams entered the next season with 3 new WRs atop the depth chart.  They also added some key changes on the OL too.  Yes both got new HC's, but our issue isnt at HC, so we are fine there.  

 

If we can put some talent around Josh this year and shore up the OL, this team very well could be this next years surprise young team that makes a leap to double digit wins and a deep playoff run.  Especially the way Josh has multiple times now made big strides in small windows of time.  Him having a full offseason as the unquestioned starter, a year in the system now, more weapons and protection and I think he is poised for a breakout season next year.

 

Except for the fact last year, all 4 teams were ranked #1, #2, #4, and #5 in scoring defense.  One season doesn't make a trend, and the most prolific offense KC is at home because their D sucks. 

Yup we need one more disruptive DL so they cant get away from Jerry.  I want a beast at DT or DE.

McD still needs his highbred Tweener Safety so teams have a harder time running on us in nickel.

Edited January 27, 2019 by formerlyofCtown

[WideNine]

6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

They have said this every year for almost 2 decades.  Greatest Show on Turf in St Louis was supposed to be the end to defense.  Wasnt true.  Never will be true.  

 

One season doesn't make a trend.  Last year, all final 4 teams were in the top 5 scoring defenses in the NFL. They were ranked #1, #2, #4, and #5.  

 

Mahomes:  50 TDs, 5000 yards.  Where is he watching the SB from?  Same place the Bills are.  Why?  Because his defense let the team down.  Saints and all that offensive fire power couldn't score in OT and then the D didn't stop the Rams in OT.  

 

High powered offenses are great, but there is a reason Peyton Manning was "One and Done" an NFL record 9 times in Indy...his defense sucked, while Brady is averaging a SB appearance every other year.  Brees has missed the playoffs MORE than he has made the playoffs the last 5 years...why because most the years his defense sucked.  Rivers, Ryan, Rodgers, Brees, etc all prolific...most often watching from home come playoff and Super Bowl time.  

 

The answer is you need some sort of balance.  Brady threw for 500 yards in the SB last year and lost.  Offense is great, but you better be able to get some stops too.  

 

That being said:  Our defense is set nicely...so for us, its time to go mostly OFFENSE.  Just like KC will be going mostly DEFENSE this offseason.  Its all case specific.  Most important position is the QB, once that is set you need to have a good offense, but you are asking for trouble if you ignore the defense.  

 

Great post.

 

The only real concern I have with our defense still is they could not stop the run...and it truly showed against teams with good running games and in the red zone.

 

It is how NE crushed us as well as KC this year. Mahomes and the Chiefs would go 3 and out in the first half and then sit cooling their high-powered heels for 10 minutes while NE banged out run after run eating up the field and the clock.

 

It was a psychological way of defeating the Chiefs early in the game and led to their offense feeling desperate like they had no chance unless they scored with the few chances they were getting, which led to mistakes and punting again, then NE went back to the ground. After a healthy dose of that and the Chiefs' "D" cheating more guys into the box, NE broke out the play action in the second half and was able to get behind them with Edelman and Gronk, etc..

 

Even then the Chiefs Offense did make a game of it and caught up in the second half. If the Chiefs defense had been able to shut down the run early it would not have even been close IMO.

 

Not exactly a new game plan from NE, Belichick has gone after and leaned on some bruising RB's in the post season before, but still a very good one to use against a potent offensive team with a "meh" defense.

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

How much should we set aside for bribing officials?

Good point. We overlook this important aspect every year!

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, WideNine said:

 

Great post.

 

The only real concern I have with our defense still is they could not stop the run...and it truly showed against teams with good running games and in the red zone.

 

It is how NE crushed us as well as KC this year. Mahomes and the Chiefs would go 3 and out in the first half and then sit cooling their high-powered heels for 10 minutes while NE banged out run after run eating up the field and the clock.

 

It was a psychological way of defeating the Chiefs early in the game and led to their offense feeling desperate like they had no chance unless they scored with the few chances they were getting, which led to mistakes and punting again, then NE went back to the ground. After a healthy dose of that and the Chiefs' "D" cheating more guys into the box, NE broke out the play action in the second half and was able to get behind them with Edelman and Gronk, etc..

 

Even then the Chiefs Offense did make a game of it and caught up in the second half. If the Chiefs defense had been able to shut down the run early it would not have even been close IMO.

 

Not exactly a new game plan from NE, Belichick has gone after and leaned on some bruising RB's in the post season before, but still a very good one to use against a potent offensive team with a "meh" defense.

 

Yeah stopping the run is a bit of a concern, but it was better when we were healthy with guys like Milano.  So while it may not be world beating next year, I think it can be good enough.  Plus I have a feeling they may add some DL help in FA this year too.  Hope they officially bring Jordan back too.  Im also excited to see Horrible Harry get more time on the field this year too, I still like his potential.  Shaq I think played his way not only on to the roster, but into a potential starting role next year too and he was pretty good against the run.  So there is reason for optimism for next year, although nothing is for sure obviously.

 

We certainly could still use a couple additions on D, so I do expect some defensive attention this offseason, however, its pretty safe to say the Offense is going to get a lot more help.  I wonder if they will look to add a corner as some believe.  Levi and Taron really showed well this year, I am not as certain as some they will still look to add another starting corner.  Maybe another depth guy, but I am pretty excited about Levi, the numbers coming out on how he did have been quite surprising and impressive.  And Taron was playing well too before he got hurt.  

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

The Bears secondary got so much better from the Bears adding Mack. Athletic DE/OLB that can bring constant pressure and hold up against the run are the mismatch nightmares that makes defense elite. If there are any Pass rushes available with the 1st pick you have to take them.

[billsredneck1]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

None of the Top 5 Defenses played the last 2 weekends. Case in point, we were the 2nd ranked D and we sucked. The times they are a changing. Try to obtain Pass rushers and DBs, but spend heavy on O.

maybe so....but d ranking aside look what the pats d did to rivers....they messed that guy up on every single snap.....then did enough to win in k.c.

 

the rams d won the game against dallas and like it or not did it against the saints. the common denominator that i'm seeing is that the better defense is winning the games.....

 

my greatest hope is that our offense will at least come closer to our defense next year. i am so excited to have a qb to go through camp with and build around. for once, no qb searches or competitions and just building the team. we are gonna be one badass opponent next year.  it will be the greatest year ....like 1990.....hope we get a holder that hauschmoney can work with.....i think that was the problem.....i digress////

[LSHMEAB]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

None of the Top 5 Defenses played the last 2 weekends. Case in point, we were the 2nd ranked D and we sucked. The times they are a changing. Try to obtain Pass rushers and DBs, but spend heavy on O.

Yep. It's not about abandoning defense. It's about abandoning the idea that you're gonna get stops on every possession. To beat the top teams, you need to rush the passer and have corners/safeties/LB's who can cover. Can't get GASHED in the run game, but it's less of a priority. Modern defense is all about sacks, TFL's, and turnovers.

[WideNine]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yeah stopping the run is a bit of a concern, but it was better when we were healthy with guys like Milano.  So while it may not be world beating next year, I think it can be good enough.  Plus I have a feeling they may add some DL help in FA this year too.  Hope they officially bring Jordan back too.  Im also excited to see Horrible Harry get more time on the field this year too, I still like his potential.  Shaq I think played his way not only on to the roster, but into a potential starting role next year too and he was pretty good against the run.  So there is reason for optimism for next year, although nothing is for sure obviously.

 

We certainly could still use a couple additions on D, so I do expect some defensive attention this offseason, however, its pretty safe to say the Offense is going to get a lot more help.  I wonder if they will look to add a corner as some believe.  Levi and Taron really showed well this year, I am not as certain as some they will still look to add another starting corner.  Maybe another depth guy, but I am pretty excited about Levi, the numbers coming out on how he did have been quite surprising and impressive.  And Taron was playing well too before he got hurt.  

 

Edmunds started hitting the run gaps better too towards the end of the season, so you are right - the Bills were playing a lot of young guys who have a lot of upside.

 

I still think Edmunds would be a freak edge player rather than playing Mike, almost feel it is wasted ability in this scheme but we have Hughes in that role for now.

[Real McClappy]

Get the QB and get a great O-line and then plug away. 

 

We don't have the O-line so get it. If we come out of this draft with a so called elite pass rusher and our O-line is dog ass this organization has failed this city.

Edited January 27, 2019 by Real McCoy

[Thurman#1]

You have to see things realistically.

 

Most of how good an offence is reflects the QB.

 

You pack a great OL and skill players around Dak Prescott and you get a pretty good offence. Our offence will mostly be as good as Josh Allen. Now, I'm not saying you don't improve the offence. You do. And the defence too.

 

And don't give me the narrative that Goff is good because of the coaching and the skill players around him. Sure, that helped. But he feels that the biggest difference is that he got better. Says he knew early on his second year he was going to be better and that McVay would get the credit but that he knew he had improved a ton and that was the biggest thing. Also says he's thrilled to have McVay and the extra offensive guys they brought in, but that he had simply improved. And he's right. He was a #1 pick for a reason. And Peyton Manning had the same kind of first year as Goff did, pretty bad with flashes of real potential. Peyton improved a ton in his second year and kept doing so. It wasn't the coaching and the skill players, though they did help.

 

And yeah right now offence is predominant. That will change. This is a cyclical league. Attacking the QB will always be a huge part of the puzzle. The Pats are in the Super Bowl not just because of their offence but because their defence held KC's offence almost completely ineffective through the whole first half. Yup, offence is up right now. Defences will adjust and catch up. It the way the league works.

 

 

Edited January 27, 2019 by Thurman#1

[WideNine]

9 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

You have to be real.

 

Most of how good an offence is reflects the QB.

 

Ours reflected QB's getting knocked silly till we got one that could bob & weave, and out-run defenders.

 

Will be nice to have an offense that can actually run (with RB's), block, and hold onto TD passes.

Edited January 27, 2019 by WideNine

[Thurman#1]

Yup. Our offence needs to get better, as does our defence.

[LSHMEAB]

8 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Yup. Our offence needs to get better, as does our defence.

 

17 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

You have to see things realistically.

 

Most of how good an offence is reflects the QB.

 

You pack a great OL and skill players around Dak Prescott and you get a pretty good offence. Our offence will mostly be as good as Josh Allen. Now, I'm not saying you don't improve the offence. You do. And the defence too.

 

 

This is spot on. There are anomalies like Green Bay where they were so atrocious offensively that even an Aaron Rodgers can struggle, but for the most part, the QB makes the offense tick. If you have a franchise QB, all you really need is a decent supporting cast.

[papazoid]

bills will take em as they come on either side

 

but for this coming season.....I would use the draft to build the O-line and free agency to build the D-line

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

Just to further simplify this question:

 

If you’re the Chiefs right now, then it’s DEFENSE.

 

If you’re the Bills right now, then it’s OFFENSE.  

 

Its subjective to the individual team.  You need to address both sides of the ball.  

[MAJBobby]

5 hours ago, iinii said:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-nfl-cant-rely-on-defense/

 

Offense. There easy 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Draft a pass rushing OLB in the first round, then go all offense. 2 WR,2 TE, and 3 OL. Cut the fullback. Sign a center and guard in free agency. Re-sign Jordan Phillips

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

Were in desperate need of a pass rusher on defense, maulers on the OL, lucky that the draft is heavy defensively (we can find our pass rusher) and free agency should have some decent OL available... Saffold, Spain, possibly Paradis (doubtful), Williams, Kalil, James, Swanson and more. I think we can fill all those needs in the draft and FA plus add some decent weapons for Josh Allen.

[machine gun kelly]

16 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

How much should we set aside for bribing officials?

 

Free Mighty Taco for life.  Might slow them down during the games.

[H2o]

The good thing about this team is the defense is already good enough to get it done. We have a lot of young core players who will continue to improve with some good vets sprinkled in at key positions. In our case it's obvious the offense is what needs tending to and mainly the OL. We get 3 good starters on the OL, a true #1 WR, and a good RB then this team is going places. Not saying Shady can't still get it done, but the end is near and we all know it. Both sides of the ball are equally important because they work in tandem with one another. 

[wiskibreth]

The answer is BALANCE.

 

Neglecting one in favor of the other will always get you a loser.

[Foxx]

i guess we can now throw the old axiom, 'offense wins games, defense wins championships', out the window now.

Edited January 27, 2019 by Foxx

[H2o]

5 minutes ago, Foxx said:

i guess we can now throw the old axiom, 'offense wins games, defense wins championships', out the window now.

Yep, now we can just say the refs win championships 

[MJS]

Honestly? I feel like the success of your team relies on having a few elite players. One of those has to be a QB. Having another on offense helps a lot too, like a WR or RB.

 

Then you need to have a couple elite guys on defense too, like an elite pass rusher, elite MLB, CB, or even Safety (Troy Palamalu type).

 

Having a few elite guys that break the game plans of the opposing team is the key. Guys that MUST be double teamed to deal with, that require extra game planning against.Then you build around those elites on offense and defense.

 

That's my way of saying both, idealy. If you can only have one, it's offense, but it better be like the top 1 or 2 offenses in the league to make up for a bad defense. Most good teams are good, or at least have the potential to be good, on both sides of the ball.

 

I think our potential elites currently on the team are: Josh Allen, Trumaine Edmunds, Tre White, and Lesean McCoy (past his prime). The first three aren't there yet and McCoy is probably not elite anymore. Here's to hoping our new crop develops.

[Just Joshin']

The answer is balance.  A team needs to have one u it be exceptional and one good supported by an above average ST.

 

My recipe would be:

1.  QB who can win in the clutch.  Does not need to be best in league but very good.

2.  Multiple skill players with speed.  You want many threats, not just one who can be neutralized

3. Defense built around pass D - bend but don't break.

4.  A kicker who can make a long FG and ensure points go on the board.

 

You can not sustain a team full of stars so target the difference makers and fill in the rest.

[White Linen]

58 minutes ago, MJS said:

Honestly? I feel like the success of your team relies on having a few elite players. One of those has to be a QB. Having another on offense helps a lot too, like a WR or RB.

 

Then you need to have a couple elite guys on defense too, like an elite pass rusher, elite MLB, CB, or even Safety (Troy Palamalu type).

 

Having a few elite guys that break the game plans of the opposing team is the key. Guys that MUST be double teamed to deal with, that require extra game planning against.Then you build around those elites on offense and defense.

 

That's my way of saying both, idealy. If you can only have one, it's offense, but it better be like the top 1 or 2 offenses in the league to make up for a bad defense. Most good teams are good, or at least have the potential to be good, on both sides of the ball.

 

I think our potential elites currently on the team are: Josh Allen, Trumaine Edmunds, Tre White, and Lesean McCoy (past his prime). The first three aren't there yet and McCoy is probably not elite anymore. Here's to hoping our new crop develops.

 

I really like this post.  I agree that it's critical to have a handful of special players that can change the game for you.  

[stinky finger]

18 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

They have said this every year for almost 2 decades.  Greatest Show on Turf in St Louis was supposed to be the end to defense.  Wasnt true.  Never will be true.  

 

One season doesn't make a trend.  Last year, all final 4 teams were in the top 5 scoring defenses in the NFL. They were ranked #1, #2, #4, and #5.  

 

Mahomes:  50 TDs, 5000 yards.  Where is he watching the SB from?  Same place the Bills are.  Why?  Because his defense let the team down.  Saints and all that offensive fire power couldn't score in OT and then the D didn't stop the Rams in OT.  

 

High powered offenses are great, but there is a reason Peyton Manning was "One and Done" an NFL record 9 times in Indy...his defense sucked, while Brady is averaging a SB appearance every other year.  Brees has missed the playoffs MORE than he has made the playoffs the last 5 years...why because most the years his defense sucked.  Rivers, Ryan, Rodgers, Brees, etc all prolific...most often watching from home come playoff and Super Bowl time.  

 

The answer is you need some sort of balance.  Brady threw for 500 yards in the SB last year and lost.  Offense is great, but you better be able to get some stops too.  

 

That being said:  Our defense is set nicely...so for us, its time to go mostly OFFENSE.  Just like KC will be going mostly DEFENSE this offseason.  Its all case specific.  Most important position is the QB, once that is set you need to have a good offense, but you are asking for trouble if you ignore the defense.  

 

nice job 

[stinky finger]

17 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

Yep. It's not about abandoning defense. It's about abandoning the idea that you're gonna get stops on every possession. To beat the top teams, you need to rush the passer and have corners/safeties/LB's who can cover. Can't get GASHED in the run game, but it's less of a priority. Modern defense is all about sacks, TFL's, and turnovers.

 

To summarize: 

 

Good defense is critical for success.