How long to close the competitive gap?

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

There really aren't a lot of good OL FAs available for starters.  And then we have to compete with everyone else in the league to get any FA as you point out, and that's a battle we lose to most destinations in the NFL.  

 

 

I don't really agree that there are not a lot of good FA OL out there. It is one of the stronger OL free agent pools in recent years - especially on the interior. There are three legitimate centers (Paradis, Morse and Easton), there are a number of good players available at guard (Spain, Turner, Foster, Saffold) plus a bunch of less long term but solid short term upgrades at guard (Levitre, Iupati, Glowinski, Garland, Compton etc). 

 

It is thinner, as you would expect, at tackle. There is nobody in this FA class who is going to come in and upgrade immediately at left tackle - those guys rarely get to FA. There are a couple (James and Williams) who would at right tackle but they will be very expensive as a result.

 

That is why my preference in 2019 is to leave Dion where he is (because I have always believed that LG not RT is where you move him to if you move him) sign one of those 3 FA centers and one of those top FA guards (with maybe another guard if one of the second tier guys sits out there a bit). At RT I would try and do a short term extension with Mills and then look to draft his successor in the middle rounds of the draft. 

 

I think that would give you a fighting chance of making a big jump on the OL in 2019. Getting Castillo's successor right matters too. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

7 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Why does everyone feel the need to validate and verify this every 5 minute around here?

 

This is far from known, at least as of now.

 

 

[ColdFront_USAF]

7 hours ago, teef said:

beane's moves made the roster "worse" to improve this team and make them a regular playoff contender.  it starts with this off season.  the bills have just existed as average for too long.  a shake up was needed, and that's what we're getting.  i have no idea if it's going to work, but i'm excited about our qb and some of the young pieces in place.  i don't know why people are so flabbergasted by the way this year went.  it's all unfortunately part of it.

 

My feelings exactly. I was surprised how many people were all doom and gloom before the season and then acted like their minds were blown when we got blown out, or blamed Beane for the dead cap situation. 

 

Sure, he chose to create a good part of that dead cap. But he recognized that the longer we were hindered by big contracts on unwanted players, and a quarterback that was only going to win in very specific conditions (defense holds opposing team to less than 20, and a positive turnover differential), the longer we would be a middling team. 

 

Nobody knows for sure how this will end up, but you have to appreciate the balls our FO showed. It takes serious balls to take a qb that broke a nearly two decade drought and show him the door. It takes balls to strip the roster of problem players like Sammy and Marcell when they were two of the most talented players on the team. 

 

As for the op though, I think 2020 is the year it comes together. Next year is about filling in the holes on the roster with young picks and some stopgaps/ maybe a few impact players in free agency, without breaking the bank for the foreseeable future. By 2020 all those young guys will have a year of experience and a full offseason, while our cornerstones like White, Allen and Edmunds reach their peaks. Add in another influx of talent in the 2020 draft and free agency and we can absolutely be a contender. 

[teef]

1 hour ago, ColdFront_USAF said:

 

My feelings exactly. I was surprised how many people were all doom and gloom before the season and then acted like their minds were blown when we got blown out, or blamed Beane for the dead cap situation. 

 

Sure, he chose to create a good part of that dead cap. But he recognized that the longer we were hindered by big contracts on unwanted players, and a quarterback that was only going to win in very specific conditions (defense holds opposing team to less than 20, and a positive turnover differential), the longer we would be a middling team. 

 

Nobody knows for sure how this will end up, but you have to appreciate the balls our FO showed. It takes serious balls to take a qb that broke a nearly two decade drought and show him the door. It takes balls to strip the roster of problem players like Sammy and Marcell when they were two of the most talented players on the team. 

 

As for the op though, I think 2020 is the year it comes together. Next year is about filling in the holes on the roster with young picks and some stopgaps/ maybe a few impact players in free agency, without breaking the bank for the foreseeable future. By 2020 all those young guys will have a year of experience and a full offseason, while our cornerstones like White, Allen and Edmunds reach their peaks. Add in another influx of talent in the 2020 draft and free agency and we can absolutely be a contender. 

This is extermely well put. It’s not easy or even fair to ask fans to endure more losing for the sake of winning, but I don’t want a quick appearance here and there in the playoffs. I want to go into each season expecting this team to be playing into January.  

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, teef said:

This is extermely well put. It’s not easy or even fair to ask fans to endure more losing for the sake of winning, but I don’t want a quick appearance here and there in the playoffs. I want to go into each season expecting this team to be playing into January.  

 

They do have to show progress in 2019 though. A year when the on field product is as borderline unwatchable as it was at times in 2018 and they will rightly be in trouble. I normally watch the Bills and have redzone on mute in the background and there were three occasions this year - Packers, Pats (first meeting) and Colts where I muted the Bills and watched redzone in the 4th Quarter. I've done that once in 6 years before this season. If it is that bad again then that goes beyond what I think it is acceptable or even understandable to ask fans to endure.

 

I should say I don't think it will be. But 2019 isn't a total pass in the way 2018 was for some... it can't be. It has to be improvement. It just doesn't, for me at least (and I suspect ownership too), have to be the playoffs.

[Virgil]

10 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I tend to agree, but I read here that some people are giving them only one more year, and that’s it! 

 

 

(No details provided as to the what if......) 

 

3 years is your average evaluation period for a new regime. 

 

Our first year, we overachieved. This year was about right.  Next year needs to show improvement.  To what end, I don’t know how to quantify it so let’s just say 8-8.  After next season, I think it’s fair game.  

 

The only way I see coach/gm turnover is if they lose control of the team and start laying eggs on the field, ala Rex Ryan at the end. 

[Scorp83]

5 hours ago, Ol Dirty B said:

 

I read this stuff and I wonder if I've watched the same thing as you... They made the team older, traded and created the dead cap space.

 

They created this. The inherit bs is what Beane and McDermott are selling to make that next contract. 

Exactly!  This is one of the reasons I'm not sold on McBeane 

 

The only thing they inherited was talent,  they chose to create all this dead cap. Everyone good player they got rid of were under contract, with no dead cap. Imagine that, having good players with No dead cap! 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Scorp83 said:

Exactly!  This is one of the reasons I'm not sold on McBeane 

 

The only thing they inherited was talent,  they chose to create all this dead cap. Everyone good player they got rid of were under contract, with no dead cap. Imagine that, having good players with No dead cap! 

 

I agree with this. A lot of what they did was their choice. But I think people have to remember Beane (who let's not forget was hired after that first draft) has consistently said that he told the Pegulas in his interview that this was his plan - use the first two years to dump what he thought were "bad contracts" and provide cap space. The Pegulas hired him on that basis. That is why I think that so long as 2019 is a step in the right direction they are safe. The Pegulas bought into the plan that this was going to take two years before they should even think about a contender being built. If they lose patience after a 2019 that is in that 8-8 territory then that would make their decision to hire Beane in the first place another on their growing list of hiring mistakes.

 

The "inherit" line is the one that Beane has been pushing since his interview for the job.

[downunderbill]

14 minutes ago, Scorp83 said:

Exactly!  This is one of the reasons I'm not sold on McBeane 

 

The only thing they inherited was talent,  they chose to create all this dead cap. Everyone good player they got rid of were under contract, with no dead cap. Imagine that, having good players with No dead cap! 

 

All that inherited talent did wonders for the Bills before they got to Buffalo.

 

[FeelingOnYouboty]

All down to Josh Allen and how they surround him. Huge off season for the future of this franchise.

[4BillsintheBurgh]

1 hour ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

All down to Josh Allen and how they surround him. Huge off season for the future of this franchise.

I agree. McBeane needs to prove they can identify offensive talent and the gap will close. If they can do that then I think they'll be around for a while.

Edited January 14, 2019 by 4BillsintheBurgh

[hemma]

Compare the mess from the 1st game of the year to what happened in week 17.

The season ended too soon.  

 

We're poised for a big performance jump.

 

[BillsVet]

5 hours ago, ColdFront_USAF said:

Nobody knows for sure how this will end up, but you have to appreciate the balls our FO showed. It takes serious balls to take a qb that broke a nearly two decade drought and show him the door. It takes balls to strip the roster of problem players like Sammy and Marcell when they were two of the most talented players on the team.

 

Effort doesn't count. Results do and teams don't get trophies for showing audacity. 

 

They have 90M in cap room as of right now, and despite what Beane says, they're going to spend.  You don't get extra credit for having cap space when the season starts. 

 

Some fans don't recognize the expectation to win that the HC and GM know is there in off-season 3, but it's there.

[Ga boy]

8 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

So have we come to a TBD consensus yet? 

 

Would have thought a straight forward question like this would have found early common ground..

As OP, I wasn't expecting 100% agreement, but was hoping for a clear consensus.  I think this thread must stay open until we get there.  C'mon, let's process, evaluate, and get to essentials.  This lack of consensus resulted in the 17 year drought.  Let's not go down that road again, plez.

[NoHuddleKelly12]

7 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I'm not sure why anyone would be happy with 8-8, but Bills fans are so scared of expectations it's not surprising.

 

Why is it so ridiculous to expect a large jump like you saw from the Bears and Rams with their respective young QBs and teams from year 1 to 2? 

 

Only in Buffalo is slow, gradual  "progress" from 6-10 to 8-8 ok. 

I’m not so sure the fans on this board anyway would be ok with only incremental progress—most comments for the thread that asked this very question expect significant steps forward this coming season:

 

[teef]

11 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I'm not sure why anyone would be happy with 8-8, but Bills fans are so scared of expectations it's not surprising.

 

Why is it so ridiculous to expect a large jump like you saw from the Bears and Rams with their respective young QBs and teams from year 1 to 2? 

 

Only in Buffalo is slow, gradual  "progress" from 6-10 to 8-8 ok. 

what fans said the would be happy with 8-8?  this keeps coming up.  no one said it.

 

 

reading comprehension people.  the question of the thread was when would the gap be closed.  some gave their opinion that it probably wouldn't be there next year, no that that was ok.  stop with this nonsense narrative. 

6 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

I’m not so sure the fans on this board anyway would be ok with only incremental progress—most comments for the thread that asked this very question expect significant steps forward this coming season:

 

they wouldn't be, nor should they be.    some people just want to ignore what's being said in this thread for the sake of complaining.  it can be difficult to have a discussion around here.  i even had someone putting words in my mouth, literally lying about comments i've made.  it's crazy town.

[row_33]

3 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

3 years is your average evaluation period for a new regime. 

 

Our first year, we overachieved. This year was about right.  Next year needs to show improvement.  To what end, I don’t know how to quantify it so let’s just say 8-8.  After next season, I think it’s fair game.  

 

The only way I see coach/gm turnover is if they lose control of the team and start laying eggs on the field, ala Rex Ryan at the end. 

 

it took Jim Kelly and the great team 3 years to get going, and that was after Jim had 3/4-pro experience as well

 

[teef]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

Go read Virgils post.

 

"Next year needs to show improvement, let's just say 8-8. After next season it's fair game." 

 

Like I said, fans need to look around the league. It doesn't take 4 years to build a perennial playoff team. 

 

so you interpret one person's post as that he's ok with it?  i don't think he said he would be happy with it, but rather it may happen, and shouldn't get the staff fired.  i'd be disappointed after only improving 2 games, but i suppose it could happen.   i was originally against playing allen this past year at all, but now i'm happy he did because it may have sped up this rebuild process a bit.  with a good fa and draft, only improving 2 games would be a huge bummer.

 

 

[Magox]

Who cares if it's 3 years or 4?   This arbitrary number that is being thrown out there is ridiculous.

 

What matters is that the team is moving in the right direction and that it competes for the division title.   

 

 

[row_33]

9 minutes ago, Magox said:

Who cares if it's 3 years or 4?   This arbitrary number that is being thrown out there is ridiculous.

 

What matters is that the team is moving in the right direction and that it competes for the division title.   

 

 

 

 

3 or 4 years should rid us of Brady, but they will still cakewalk the division with 9 wins if the other 3 don't get their act together

 

[FLFan]

Anything less than playoffs next year would be severely disappointing.  It could certainly happen - key injuries can change the fortunes of any team - but there better be a damn good excuse for this team not improving by 3/4 games next year at least.  I am bought into the plan, and was certainly willing to be patient with what was shaping up from the beginning to be a down year this year, but I want to see a step up.  The potential is certainly there if McBeane nail this off season in their respective roles.  I doubt this is different from most fans perspective.

[teef]

Just now, FLFan said:

Anything less than playoffs next year would be severely disappointing.  It could certainly happen - key injuries can change the fortunes of any team - but there better be a damn good excuse for this team not improving by 3/4 games next year at least.  I am bought into the plan, and was certainly willing to be patient with what was shaping up from the beginning to be a down year this year, but I want to see a step up.  The potential is certainly there if McBeane nail this off season in their respective roles.  I doubt this is different from most fans perspective.

i think this is how the majority of reasonable fans see it.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

14 hours ago, BillsPride12 said:

Minimum of 2 years IMO..regardless of the cap space and draft picks we have, we still have so many holes to fill.  I think that the fans that are expecting 10-11 wins next year are going to be disappointed. 

Why in Buffalo are the expectations so low?

 

Why is 10 wins not realistic? 

 

Why do other fans get to enjoy Playoff games, and Bills fans have to be on 5-year rebuild plans?

 

The culture excuse is gone, McDermott is in his 3rd year, they have their hand-picked QB, the defense has it's hand-picked MLB, Beane has executed his plan to dump all players not associated with the future. 

 

I don't see how 8-8 next season could be spun as progress. Really 9-7 is on the fringe of Playoff contention. That's not good enough. The Sabres are out of the Playoffs after briefly leading the entire NHL in points, the Bills haven't won a Playoff game since 1995. I mean when does the winning ever start in Buffalo?

 

Brady will be 42 next season, the Dolphins have a new HC, the Jets have a new HC. Why isn't 4-2 realistic?

[Nanker]

Home Games

Baltimore

Cincinnati

Washington

Denver Horse Teeth

Philly Iggles

Miami

NE*

JESTS

 

Away games

Cleveland

Pitt

Dallas

NYJints

Flaming Thumbtacks

Miami

NE*

JESTS

 

Call me crazy, but I think they could win every home game on that schedule except the Cheesesteaks, and could win at least three of the away games. 

[Buddy Hix]

A lot of people on here think Allen is a lock to be our franchise QB, it’s still too early to tell one way or the other.

 

IMO 8 wins should be the benchmark to hit next season or McBeane should be evaluated for replacement. Of course, that is contingent on Allen continuing to grow. If Allen regresses Pegs needs to toss the baby and bath water out.

[row_33]

23 minutes ago, Nanker said:

Home Games

Baltimore

Cincinnati

Washington

Denver Horse Teeth

Philly Iggles

Miami

NE*

JESTS

 

Away games

Cleveland

Pitt

Dallas

NYJints

Flaming Thumbtacks

Miami

NE*

JESTS

 

Call me crazy, but I think they could win every home game on that schedule except the Cheesesteaks, and could win at least three of the away games. 

 

 

the Bills swept the home games twice in the peak years of the Jim Kelly Era

 

so demanding a sweeping with this team is insanity.

 

 

[row_33]

10 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

The benchmark should be playoffs.

 

Raise the bar. Expect higher standards.

 

off course the playoffs, but they are at best gunning for a Wild Card spot with the Pats winning the division

 

and WC is sometimes harder than a division win

 

 

[GunnerBill]

51 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

 

Like I said, fans need to look around the league. It doesn't take 4 years to build a perennial playoff team. 

 

 

My point remains that next year isn't really year 3 of the rebuild. It is at most year 2. They did it a funky way year 1 but they got away with it and made the playoffs ending the drought. Then they embarked on the rebuild. They have to be better next year. They don't have to show they are a perennial contending type team.

[Buddy Hix]

4 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

The benchmark should be playoffs.

 

Raise the bar. Expect higher standards.

I don’t disagree. I just temper my expectations with what I think Pegs will do. With 8 wins and Allen showing more growth, I’d say it’s doubtful McBeane don’t get a 4th year.

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

The benchmark should be playoffs.

 

Raise the bar. Expect higher standards.

 

The benchmark is the playoffs. It shouldn't however be "playoffs or bust" which I have seen strewn throughout this thread. It is progress or bust, but progress that still lands short of the playoffs in 2019 shouldn't lead to house cleaning.

[billsfan_34]

2019 for sure! 

[BmarvB]

Follow the Colts example and upgrade the O line around Allen, then add another reliable receiver and of course immediately replace Clay. If Allen can take the next step in his development without the sophomore jinx, we have a chance to return to the playoffs

[row_33]

9 minutes ago, BmarvB said:

Follow the Colts example and upgrade the O line around Allen, then add another reliable receiver and of course immediately replace Clay. If Allen can take the next step in his development without the sophomore jinx, we have a chance to return to the playoffs

 

every other team that cares in 2019, many of them already far better than the Bills, will also be upgrading at their weaknesses.

 

 

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

This Front Office bought themselves time to build the team after overachieving and sneaking in to the playoffs year one. This last season was the full strip down and rebuild and we also had some bad luck with our O-line. This year should be a step in the right direction but will still take time for the new pieces to gel. I still predict an 8-9 win season and whether that is enough is out of our control.

[BADOLBILZ]

15 hours ago, teef said:

who said this?

 

 

You.

 

By incorrectly associating 17 years of missed playoffs with the need for a major change when three previous extensive teardowns did not work.

 

The Bills team that McD inherited from Anthony Lynn was 7th in the NFL in scoring offense thru 15 games with the fewest turnovers ever in the SB era...........when you tear that down and finish nearly dead last in that regard for the next two years........well that looks dumb.

 

And the talent level of the defense he inherited was excellent and the positions of need on D were fairly easy to replace(LB's and safeties).

 

And the long term cap outlook was excellent even then..........you can pay your good young players now because you got a bunch of vets that will be gone in a few seasons and no first round picks to extend from the 2013 or 2015 drafts etc..

 

There was no need for a major personnel or offensive scheme shakeup...........and the thought that there was one needed at the time of the coaching search was as foreign of a concept at the time as thinking that the Bills need to select a QB in round one this year would be now.      

 

I mean a team that couldn't win under a half-interested Rex Ryan was proof that major change was needed?   The narrative made little sense............and then to finally have the QB they've been searching for for decades fall into their lap on draft day at a time when they didn't even have their GM in place!  WTF    It was utter buffoonery.    

 

Now as Belichick has said..........you gotta' be making bad decisions all the time to stay bad in the NFL...........and certainly not everything the Bills have done under McBeane has been bad.........but it's hard to run with the big dogs when you are rationalizing why you need to stay on the porch.

 

The alternative to the sub-mediocrity that most of the McD regime has been are teams like the Chiefs, Rams, Texans and Colts.........all teams that hired the right people and picked the right players and made the jump to contenders pretty quickly and without all of the labor pains.

[teef]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You.

 

By incorrectly associating 17 years of missed playoffs with the need for a major change when three previous extensive teardowns did not work.

 

The Bills team that McD inherited from Anthony Lynn was 7th in the NFL in scoring offense thru 15 games with the fewest turnovers ever in the SB era...........when you tear that down and finish nearly dead last in that regard for the next two years........well that looks dumb.

 

And the talent level of the defense he inherited was excellent and the positions of need on D were fairly easy to replace(LB's and safeties).

 

And the long term cap outlook was excellent even then..........you can pay your good young players now because you got a bunch of vets that will be gone in a few seasons and no first round picks to extend from the 2013 or 2015 drafts etc..

 

There was no need for a major personnel or offensive scheme shakeup...........and the thought that there was one needed at the time of the coaching search was as foreign of a concept at the time as thinking that the Bills need to select a QB in round one this year would be now.      

 

I mean a team that couldn't win under a half-interested Rex Ryan was proof that major change was needed?   The narrative made little sense............and then to finally have the QB they've been searching for for decades fall into their lap on draft day at a time when they didn't even have their GM in place!  WTF    It was utter buffoonery.    

 

Now as Belichick has said..........you gotta' be making bad decisions all the time to stay bad in the NFL...........and certainly not everything the Bills have done under McBeane has been bad.........but it's hard to run with the big dogs when you are rationalizing why you need to stay on the porch.

 

The alternative to the sub-mediocrity that most of the McD regime has been are teams like the Chiefs, Rams, Texans and Colts.........all teams that hired the right people and picked the right players and made the jump to contenders pretty quickly and without all of the labor pains.

I’m not even going to bother to read this. If you’re so petty that you have to put words in people’s mouth to make a point, you’re not worth the time.  Grow up kid. You’re out of your league. 

 

So....can you actually quote what you claim I said. Just so we all can see?

Edited January 14, 2019 by teef

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The benchmark is the playoffs. It shouldn't however be "playoffs or bust" which I have seen strewn throughout this thread. It is progress or bust, but progress that still lands short of the playoffs in 2019 shouldn't lead to house cleaning.

 

 

I think you are still looking at this thru somewhat of an "offseason" vacuum.

 

HOW McD performs as the steward of the franchise..........the "can he win a championship" eye test......is as important as anything.

 

That's really what killed Rex more than the record.

 

Rex had his moments..........the team showed up big time in games like the road game against Seattle or both of his road games in New England..........but it was the eggs that were laid in other weeks(home against Pitt......road Washington) and the failure to finish off opponents they had by the throat in games at KC and Philly and Oakland that ended up defining him.

 

For McD...........blowout losses and utter domination by NE are huge factors in the eye test..........he's gotta' show consistent,  sound impact from the sideline or I do think the Pegula's will be looking for somebody to help take the team from "the process" to "the finish". 

 

[Chris66]

5 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I think you are still looking at this thru somewhat of an "offseason" vacuum.

 

HOW McD performs as the steward of the franchise..........the "can he win a championship" eye test......is as important as anything.

 

That's really what killed Rex more than the record.

 

Rex had his moments..........the team showed up big time in games like the road game against Seattle or both of his road games in New England..........but it was the eggs that were laid in other weeks(home against Pitt......road Washington) and the failure to finish off opponents they had by the throat in games at KC and Philly and Oakland that ended up defining him.

 

For McD...........blowout losses and utter domination by NE are huge factors in the eye test..........he's gotta' show consistent,  sound impact from the sideline or I do think the Pegula's will be looking for somebody to help take the team from "the process" to "the finish". 

 

That interesting. Wgr had a miami beat guy on this morning and he was talking about the potential hire of Flores. He stated he wasnt worried about it because coaches during rebuilds get fired before said teams become contenders.

[Jrb1979]

Only are expectations are a competitive tean that is playing meaningful games in december. Most teams expect playoffs every season. Bills fans are happy with progress. 

[BADOLBILZ]

11 minutes ago, teef said:

I’m not even going to bother to read this. If you’re so petty that you have to put words in people’s mouth to make a point, you’re not worth the time.  Grow up kid. You’re out of your league. 

 

So....can you actually quote what you claim I said. Just so we all can see?

 

Teef at no point did I even CONSIDER that you would read that post.

 

You are a self-assured, smug know-it-all (I'm guessing that applies to most topics)......who is conveniently above discussing-it-all.