Josh Allen’s Adjusted Completion Percentage = 72.7%

[Doc]

1 hour ago, Chicken Boo said:

Did you catch the part where he still ranks 23rd in the league accounting for the other starting QBs adjusted percentage?

 

Great. But had the Bills’ receivers done a better job of catching the passes he did get to them, they’re riding a 4-game win streak. 

[Kelly the Dog]

3 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

They'll be here for the next decade.

If Josh looks pretty good but they keep signing guys like Peterman and Zay and Benjamin and Marshall Newhouse and Russell Bodine, they will be here for a decade?

[Magox]

Just now, Kelly the Dog said:

If Josh looks pretty good but they keep signing guys like Peterman and Zay and Benjamin and Marshall Newhouse and Russell Bodine, they will be here for a decade?

Newhouse and Bodine were never meant to be staples of this organization, they were low cost place holders.

 

Peterman and Zay weren't Beanes guys.

 

KB they simply struck out on.  We all thought it was a good idea at the time and we were all wrong.

 

The defense will be good.

 

They hit on Allen.  

 

That alone most likely assures them of being in good position going forward.  I expect that they will make a few signings and I strongly suspect that Beane will make it his mission to surround Allen with a good line and weapons.

 

I have more faith that they will get it done than you do.

[Kelly the Dog]

18 minutes ago, Magox said:

Newhouse and Bodine were never meant to be staples of this organization, they were low cost place holders.

 

Peterman and Zay weren't Beanes guys.

 

KB they simply struck out on.  We all thought it was a good idea at the time and we were all wrong.

 

The defense will be good.

 

They hit on Allen.  

 

That alone most likely assures them of being in good position going forward.  I expect that they will make a few signings and I strongly suspect that Beane will make it his mission to surround Allen with a good line and weapons.

 

I have more faith that they will get it done than you do.

Understood. I don't know either way like I said. The Peterman Experiment scares me. The not having a veteran with Josh until Anderson is scary. Castillo is a huge mistake. Dennison was a huge mistake. Daboll looks pretty good but jury is still out. Not surrounding Josh with any speed until halfway through the season is scary. Not having a real QB coach is scary.

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Understood. I don't know either way like I said. The Peterman Experiment scares me. The not having a veteran with Josh until Anderson is scary. Castillo is a huge mistake. Dennison was a huge mistake. Daboll looks pretty good but jury is still out. Not surrounding Josh with any speed until halfway through the season is scary. Not having a real QB coach is scary.

 

They aren't perfect but they are competent.  If Allen turns out to be as good as I believe he will be and Beane focuses like a laser in surrounding Allen with a supporting cast with McD's defensive mind, I think the odds of us being a good team over the next decade are decent.

[without a drought]

3 hours ago, Doc said:

 

So receivers dropping passes isn't a valid excuse.  The "lack of a grasp on reality" store called...

Hey, I just took out all his incompletions/interceptions and his Ultra Adjusted Completion Percentage or his UACP is 100%.

[Doc]

2 hours ago, The Drought said:

Hey, I just took out all his incompletions/interceptions and his Ultra Adjusted Completion Percentage or his UACP is 100%.

 

Just take away dropped passes, rookie.  Not a hard concept.

[stinky finger]

On 12/17/2018 at 12:02 PM, gjv001 said:

Just stop all the nonsense. The bottom line is Allen is a winner. He will make the Bills Offense relevant and the Franchise relevant. If you can't see that, then I suggest you should go back to watching professional bowling.

 

Wrong, wrong, wrong.

 

If his comp % isn't 70% he's a failed pick. For it is this % that rules all.

[WideNine]

3 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Understood. I don't know either way like I said. The Peterman Experiment scares me. The not having a veteran with Josh until Anderson is scary. Castillo is a huge mistake. Dennison was a huge mistake. Daboll looks pretty good but jury is still out. Not surrounding Josh with any speed until halfway through the season is scary. Not having a real QB coach is scary.

 

Daboll was a QB coach for the Jets for two years and Favre thought highly of him, Culley has spent time in the college ranks as a QB coach...so Josh actually has two at this point and I think you can see that Josh is getting coached.

 

I will be curious to see how much input Daboll will have on this draft ...the Bills certainly hit on some Clemson UFA talent... but drafting Ray Ray, and Proehl - two guys both projected as slot receivers was not what I had in mind.

[The Now Moment]

3 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Understood. I don't know either way like I said. The Peterman Experiment scares me. The not having a veteran with Josh until Anderson is scary. Castillo is a huge mistake. Dennison was a huge mistake. Daboll looks pretty good but jury is still out. Not surrounding Josh with any speed until halfway through the season is scary. Not having a real QB coach is scary.

Things get added in with time. You just need to have a little patience.  You act like Josh doesn't have coaches around him to help him along.  A veteran QB to learn from is a luxury not a need.  Allen plays the game differently and I think the coaches have to help him adjust to what he does best.  If that is scrambling out of the pocket and making wild throws down the field like Rodgers, then so be it.  Daboll seems to be doing a better job each week with play calling.  He has to keep it mostly conservative with the lack of talent and a rookie QB, he's in a tough spot.  Can't wait to see what he can do with a talented offense.

[transplantbillsfan]

 

[WhyteDwarf]

8 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Just take away dropped passes, rookie.  Not a hard concept.

 

With absolutely no regard on whether the drops were caused by bad ball placement/bad timing.  By whatever means makes you feel better, it's all about feelings these days right?

[oldmanfan]

18 minutes ago, WhyteDwarf said:

 

With absolutely no regard on whether the drops were caused by bad ball placement/bad timing.  By whatever means makes you feel better, it's all about feelings these days right?

Drops by definition means the receiver has the ball hit his hands.  Is hitting guys in the hands bad placement?

Edited December 19, 2018 by oldmanfan

[thebandit27]

2 hours ago, WhyteDwarf said:

 

With absolutely no regard on whether the drops were caused by bad ball placement/bad timing.  By whatever means makes you feel better, it's all about feelings these days right?

 

It must be all about feelings these days, else you wouldn't have such an issue simply saying "huh, I guess he's throwing the ball a bit better than I thought".

 

[WhyteDwarf]

5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

It must be all about feelings these days, else you wouldn't have such an issue simply saying "huh, I guess he's throwing the ball a bit better than I thought".

 

 

I don't follow. He was a ~50% passer in college and he's so far a ~50% passer in the NFL. So, for me to feel like he's passing the ball better than expected, the comp % would need to be higher, right?  lol 

Edited December 19, 2018 by WhyteDwarf

[thebandit27]

Just now, WhyteDwarf said:

 

I don't follow. He was a ~50% passer in college and he's so far a ~50% passer in the NFL. So, for me to feel like he's passing the ball better than expected, the comp % would need to be higher?  lol 

 

If all you do is judge accuracy by a box score, then yes, that's a fine way to convince yourself that you know what you're talking about.

 

There are those of us that care to watch the game, chart throws, look at play designs, and actually understand what's happening on the field.

 

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, WhyteDwarf said:

 

I don't follow. He was a ~50% passer in college and he's so far a ~50% passer in the NFL. So, for me to feel like he's passing the ball better than expected, the comp % would need to be higher, right?  lol 

Having a 52% completion percentage in the NFL and showing improvement in his passing are not not mutually exclusive concepts. If you do not see improvement in his passing from the beginning of this year until now, then you just do not want to see it - which, I suspect is the case.

[K-9]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

 

If all you do is judge accuracy by a box score, then yes, that's a fine way to convince yourself that you know what you're talking about.

 

There are those of us that care to watch the game, chart throws, look at play designs, and actually understand what's happening on the field.

 

Amen.

[WhyteDwarf]

5 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

Having a 52% completion percentage in the NFL and showing improvement in his passing are not not mutually exclusive concepts. If you do not see improvement in his passing from the beginning of this year until now, then you just do not want to see it - which, I suspect is the case.

 

Oh sure, I see some improvement, but he's still at 50%.

 

If he's still at 50% next year at this time, that is a problem no?

Edited December 19, 2018 by WhyteDwarf

[Doc]

2 hours ago, WhyteDwarf said:

With absolutely no regard on whether the drops were caused by bad ball placement/bad timing.  By whatever means makes you feel better, it's all about feelings these days right?

 

I don’t know. How do you feel knowing that you admitted that there were 4 drops?  Whoa whoa whoa...  

[Royale with Cheese]

I’m thinking someone needs a new hobby other than creating 2 usernames to argue against Allen...

[WhyteDwarf]

4 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

I don’t know. How do you feel knowing that you admitted that there were 4 drops?  Whoa whoa whoa...  

 

I feel that with better talent at WR the drops should decrease, but they will never go away, and whatever that drop differential is, it's not enough to take a 52% passer to ~65% passer.

Edited December 19, 2018 by WhyteDwarf

[billsfan1959]

2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I’m thinking someone needs a new hobby other than creating 2 usernames to argue against Allen...

I actually responded once to him in this thread and immediately felt the shame and regret I typically feel whenever I do something I know I shouldn't do...

[WideNine]

I think the whole completion % thing has been beat to death, but I am pretty sure 26CB posted this clip at some point where Trent Dilfer talks about evaluating Allen. He also emphatically shares his disdain for the completion % stat when incorrectly used as a gauge for accuracy - for what it is worth from someone who played the game:

 

 

 

[Doc]

4 hours ago, WhyteDwarf said:

I feel that with better talent at WR the drops should decrease, but they will never go away, and whatever that drop differential is, it's not enough to take a 52% passer to ~65% passer.

 

Well he had 4 dropped passes in that game (at least) so he was a 65.4% passer.  Even if you say that 1 drop is acceptable, he's at 61.5%.  Maybe some of the other passes get hauled-in with better receivers.  I don't know.  The point is he's not exactly working with great talent around him and blocking for him.  So give him maybe until he has more talent around him and a year's worth of games under his belt.

Edited December 19, 2018 by Doc

[gjv001]

14 hours ago, inaugural balls said:

 

Wrong, wrong, wrong.

 

If his comp % isn't 70% he's a failed pick. For it is this % that rules all.

Like I said, go back to watching professional bowling.

[RememberTheRockpile]

On 12/18/2018 at 7:05 AM, WhyteDwarf said:

 

Another one who didn't take physics in school.  Thanks for raising your hand.

Keep trolling on sparky.

[Juice_32]

10 hours ago, WhyteDwarf said:

 

Oh sure, I see some improvement, but he's still at 50%.

 

If he's still at 50% next year at this time, that is a problem no?

 

What if he's at 50% next year and we're 10-4?

[stevestojan]

My adjusted BAC is .02 since the guy sitting next to me at the bar has been drinking Long Islands. 

[Tcali]

If people think that drafting WR talent or getting FA WR talent is going to completely solve Allen's QBing issues then they are being Billslike naive.

Yes great WRs will help..But what really will help is if he throws more than 50% of his passes accurately.

WRs--yes the great ones too--enjoy playing with a QB who they can rely on to consistently throw nice accurate catchable passes..

When its a 50/50m proposition like with Josh Allen---then its tough for the WRs  to feel relaxed since they never know what kind of a pass they are gonna have to deal with or if they will even be noticed being wide open.

 

I am optimistic that JA will keep  improving. But to throw the blame on poor WRing alone is just not smart.

Allen does great things(running) and makes some great throws....But he whiffs badly on some wide open receivers in critical times.

Just because people mention his weaknesses doesnt make them haters.Its called be realistic. Its not all or even predominantly the fault of his WRs or O line.

 

[Success]

Allen is awesome.

[thebandit27]

6 minutes ago, Tcali said:

If people think that drafting WR talent or getting FA WR talent is going to completely solve Allen's QBing issues then they are being Billslike naive.

Yes great WRs will help..But what really will help is if he throws more than 50% of his passes accurately.

WRs--yes the great ones too--enjoy playing with a QB who they can rely on to consistently throw nice accurate catchable passes..

When its a 50/50m proposition like with Josh Allen---then its tough for the WRs  to feel relaxed since they never know what kind of a pass they are gonna have to deal with or if they will even be noticed being wide open.

 

I am optimistic that JA will keep  improving. But to throw the blame on poor WRing alone is just not smart.

Allen does great things(running) and makes some great throws....But he whiffs badly on some wide open receivers in critical times.

Just because people mention his weaknesses doesnt make them haters.Its called be realistic. Its not all or even predominantly the fault of his WRs or O line.

 

 

Saying that he only throws half his passes accurately is not being realistic; its hyperbole.

 

[John from Riverside]

On 12/17/2018 at 9:55 AM, WhyteDwarf said:

 

Yeah, that the rest of the team being trash is a crutch IMO.

 

What would change things is a QB that wins games, then the "discussion" could progress.

Take a lap

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Saying that he only throws half his passes accurately is not being realistic; its hyperbole.

 

 

13 minutes ago, Tcali said:

If people think that drafting WR talent or getting FA WR talent is going to completely solve Allen's QBing issues then they are being Billslike naive.

Yes great WRs will help..But what really will help is if he throws more than 50% of his passes accurately.

WRs--yes the great ones too--enjoy playing with a QB who they can rely on to consistently throw nice accurate catchable passes..

When its a 50/50m proposition like with Josh Allen---then its tough for the WRs  to feel relaxed since they never know what kind of a pass they are gonna have to deal with or if they will even be noticed being wide open.

 

I am optimistic that JA will keep  improving. But to throw the blame on poor WRing alone is just not smart.

Allen does great things(running) and makes some great throws....But he whiffs badly on some wide open receivers in critical times.

Just because people mention his weaknesses doesnt make them haters.Its called be realistic. Its not all or even predominantly the fault of his WRs or O line.

 

Another guy conflating accuracy with completions.  Another guy who has no idea what accuracy really is and how it's actually measured.  Allen has growth to do and things to work in.  But when are these false analyses going to stop?

[stinky finger]

10 hours ago, gjv001 said:

Like I said, go back to watching professional bowling.

 

Hi - allow me to introduce myself.

 

I'm sarcastic.

12 hours ago, WideNine said:

I think the whole completion % thing has been beat to death, but I am pretty sure 26CB posted this clip at some point where Trent Dilfer talks about evaluating Allen. He also emphatically shares his disdain for the completion % stat when incorrectly used as a gauge for accuracy - for what it is worth from someone who played the game:

 

 

 

 

This video gets me all chilly...

[Mr. WEO]

It's just ben announced that, adjusted for drops, throwaways and passes otherwise not caught, the league average adjusted completion percentage  now = 100%

[Patrick Duffy]

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

It's just ben announced that, adjusted for drops, throwaways and passes otherwise not caught, the league average adjusted completion percentage  now = 100%

Was just about to post this. Saw it at the bottom of the screen on ESPN.

[Thurman#1]

 

On ‎12‎/‎18‎/‎2018 at 2:16 AM, Rico said:

The only stat that matters. Acceptable for a rookie QB.

 

 

It doesn't apply to a rookie QB. Or any other QB. It's a team stat. How well the MLB plays or the field goal kicker kicks or the KR breaks a long return or fumbles has nothing to do with how well the QB is playing. It really is that simple. Wins are a team stat.

 

Which is why the official name of the abbreviated "QB Record" is actually "Team record in games started by this QB (Regular season)". Coloring and italics mine, of course.

 

If you want to know how well the QB is playing, you look at how well the QB is playing. The statistical measures are things like completion percentage, YPA, passer rating, attempts, completions, yards, TDs, INTs, sacks, running yards, and I'm sure you can think of a ton more. And no, they don't tell the whole story, but they're the best measure we have short of in-depth game film analysis of all his plays.

Edited December 20, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

 

On ‎12‎/‎19‎/‎2018 at 7:23 AM, HappyDays said:

 

I will take any WR in the league that is #4 or better on their roster over Zay Jones. If I'm remembering what I read correctly, Zay had 6 targets on Sunday and only caught 1 pass. He is useless. He is our #2 receiver and he is completely useless. McKenzie and Foster ARE being elevated by Allen, more than I think we give him credit for. No one in the league can elevate Zay, except for some timely pass interference calls.

 

 

Targets includes stuff like being the guy in the neighborhood where the QB throws it away, not to mention just bad throws that go ten feet over his head. It's not a good measure of how well a receiver is doing, partly for the reasons above and partly because it's half on the QB.

 

1st Q 1:06 Allen throws to Zay's knees, catch, 11 yards

 

1st Q 00:26 Allen with a terrible throw, should never have been thrown and was underthrown besides, is intercepted on the sidelines as a defender undercuts the route four yards in front of Zay, but luckily he is ruled out of bounds on a call that was not clear at all.

 

2nd Q 00:13 Long bomb, 52 yards past LOS, on the left side, with Allen taking a long shot near the end of the half. The CB, Slay, is in front of Jones on the inside, preventing Jones from getting past. Jones steps on Slay's foot and they both lose their balance. Slay starts to fall but leans back to knock it away. Jones couldn't leap or fight well after stepping on the foot. The throw was a bit inside, as Slay had inside leverage.

 

3rd Q 8:22 Zay has half a step but isn't wide open. The safety is coming over but won't get there in time, as Jones is running towards the pylon. Allen overthrows him about 30 yards downfield.

 

4th Q 3:54 Zay coming over the middle sixteen yards deep. Ball is high, Zay leaps. Tough ball, thrown hard and high but though it was far from an easy catch (and it could have been, the CB was behind and nobody was anywhere in front of Jones, it could have been thrown with touch) it was catchable.

 

4th 13:47 A 17 yard comeback on the right near the sideline. Good throw, knocked away. Slay was behind Jones as Jones stopped and grabbed Jones, stopping him from coming back towards the ball. Should've been a penalty, IMHO.

 

So Zay got his hands on two of them. Not six.

 

 

 

Zay looks - to me - like a young guy showing improvement and promise but hiccups. Much like Allen, really. Both of them need to improve, both of them have a chance to do so with time.

[KW95 - JA17]

Between an adjusted stat and this so called QB pressure stat, its amazing that more bills didn't make it to the ProBowl.