Josh Allen’s Adjusted Completion Percentage = 72.7%

[Magox]

29 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Its wasnt I deal.  You do have to take into account context.  Full speed running straight, stopping and throwing to the right corner of the endzone from the far side numbers about 40 yards in the air without feet or shoulders square is a 12 on a scale of 1 to 10 difficulty.  Allen is one of 3 players in the sport who could pull that off.  

Not 40, 60.

 

It was from the 40 yard line but across the field

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, WhyteDwarf said:

Oh, a pop singer, yeah, no wonder why.  I don't keep up on those...

 

Yeah, I watch every SB, but never watch the halftime show.

 

Nah, I know what Gif's are, I just didn't know what either of them had to do with football.

 

To be fair I watch every Superbowl and watched that Half Time show and I had no idea who the Gifs were of either. Pop music sucks.

[WhyteDwarf]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

To be fair I watch every Superbowl and watched that Half Time show and I had no idea who the Gifs were of either. Pop music sucks.

 

The only thing I can remember about a half-time show is when that one dude flipped open Janet Jackson's top, and not because I was watching, but because it was all over the news.

[Mat68]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think that is unfair to Fitz. Fitz didn't do it consistently but without much talent around him (especially at receiver) he took the team on his back and Fitzmagic'd us some wins. Obviously I think Allen has potential to do it better and consistently.... but Fitz played with fire, took the team on his back and led us down the field to win games too and he was as competitive as hell.

 

 

Fitz had a strong running game.  Imo Fred Ex was just as big if not a bigger contributor to those offenses success.  Allen doesnt have that.  McCoy is a shell of himself. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Mat68 said:

Fitz had a strong running game.  Imo Fred Ex was just as big if not a bigger contributor to those offenses success.  Allen doesnt have that.  McCoy is a shell of himself. 

 

Fitz did have a strong running game. But he still put that team on his shoulders and drove them down the field to wins on more than one occasion and he was always super competitive. Of course Allen is more naturally talented and hopefully has a much better career and Fitz was as likely to throw a heartbreaking INT as that final second TD but he was a competitor and he did carry the team late in games on more than one occasion.

[D521646]

I dunno, I love what I'm seeing from this kid, and been around long enough to know we've never had a QB quite like him, except maybe Flutie, but he was an accomplished vet when we got him.  He passes the eye test, something NP did not do, EJ, Orton, heck everyone sans Barkley (Barkley looked good and I hope we retain him, seems like he fits here).  He's like a sponge right now, absorbing every nuance the NFL has to offer in his rookie year.  Next year the "newness" of it all will have faded and he will be even more laser focused on learning the trade.  I would also like to point out that of the 5 QB's taken, I think an average media assessment of them have Baker first, then Allen/Jackson, Darnold, Rosen.  However, outside of Baker, who actually does have talent around him, does Baker raise their play level?  Serious question.  I KNOW that Allen has raised the play level of the players he's worked with, that is a fact, so, part of a quality QB, rook or vet is whether they can raise the overall level of play.

 

I think, the answer is, yes!

 

 

Tim-

[BillsSB2020]

13 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

All these metrics are cool for some people. I think people that don’t actually watch the games but want to just figure out who is good by reading some ***** stats love this stuff. That’s what baseball mostly is now. A bunch of guys who have never held a bat, telling you that a strike out is the same as a ground ball out. Even though a ball in play moves a runner and puts pressure on a fielder to field and make throw. If you watch the games, you know who is good. It’s really not as complicated as people make it. Analytics are something that can help but people are going way overboard with it. Allen has been pretty good. He needs to work on ball placement but he’s young. It’s going in the right direction.

A ground ball is worse than a strikeout if there's a force play to be made, but I digress.

 

Nothing wrong with watching games AND analyzing data.

[Mat68]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Fitz did have a strong running game. But he still put that team on his shoulders and drove them down the field to wins on more than one occasion and he was always super competitive. Of course Allen is more naturally talented and hopefully has a much better career and Fitz was as likely to throw a heartbreaking INT as that final second TD but he was a competitor and he did carry the team late in games on more than one occasion.

Besides the end of game hysterics, what Allen is doing with a whole lot of nothing on offense is mostly going unnoticed.   That is what I mean by putting the offense on his back.  Not a quarter, not a drive, the entire game Allen has been the entire offense the last 4 weeks.  Buffalo is 2-2 two plays away from being 4-0 in those games.  No stat or metric will explain that.  Increase the talent around him and look out.  

[BillsSB2020]

34 minutes ago, WhyteDwarf said:

 

The only thing I can remember about a half-time show is when that one dude flipped open Janet Jackson's top, and not because I was watching, but because it was all over the news.

That one dude being Justin Timberlake, one of, if not the biggest stars of this generation.

 

I'm not trying to pile on here, but your lack of cultural awareness is pretty astonishing. Admirable in an odd way.

[WhyteDwarf]

Just now, BillsSB2020 said:

That one dude being Justin Timberlake, one of, if not the biggest stars of this generation.

 

I'm not trying to pile on here, but your lack of cultural awareness is pretty astonishing. Admirable in an odd way.

 

I recognize him now that you say his name. He was in a movie I liked called "In Time".  However, normally I try not to care too much about celebrities.

[teef]

3 minutes ago, BillsSB2020 said:

That one dude being Justin Timberlake, one of, if not the biggest stars of this generation.

 

I'm not trying to pile on here, but your lack of cultural awareness is pretty astonishing. Admirable in an odd way.

I think people play that nonsense up. I can’t stand pop music, I never watch the Super Bowl halftime show, and I know exactly who Justin Timberlake and Katy Perry are. You’d have to be pretty unaware not to be. 

1 minute ago, WhyteDwarf said:

 

I recognize him now that you say his name. He was in a movie I liked called "In Time".  However, normally I try not to care too much about celebrities.

See. He’s playing it up. 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

Just now, teef said:

I think people play that nonsense up. I can’t stand pop music, I never watch the Super Bowl halftime show, and I know exactly who Justin Timberlake and Katy Perry are. You’d have to be pretty unaware not to be. 

 

Whenever I open a thread that is several pages long I go straight to the end to see where the conversation is at.  

 

I am left speechless...

[teef]

1 minute ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Whenever I open a thread that is several pages long I go straight to the end to see where the conversation is at.  

 

I am left speechless...

That’s actually a great strategy. 

[Kelly the Dog]

There was a stat I saw yesterday that seemed to say in passes over ten yards in the air this season, Allen has the second highest completion percentage in the league. That is a good indication of accuracy, too.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

2 minutes ago, teef said:

That’s actually a great strategy. 

 

Its a quick way of figuring out if the conversation is one I want to be a part of. 

 

I'm a strong Katy Perry advocate.  I'm all in on whatever is happening here. 

[Vicarious_Fan16]

I've been a lurker for a little bit and signed up to give my few thoughts on Allen. I'm far from a expert so take my post with more then a grain of salt. 

 

Allen seems to be making improvements but I think his completion % being low has really been hurt by the WR's not getting much separation on a ton of plays, Foster has been a great assist of late but other then him Allen hasn't had much to work with(looking at you Mr. I cant take a step forward Charles Clay). If we can find another WR and get a O-line that isn't terrible I think we will all be happy :)

[Kelly the Dog]

As soon as we get six new OL, three new WR and couple TEs, watch out!!

 

Yes, he has been playing with crap this season, it's the biggest factor.

[thebandit27]

9 minutes ago, Vicarious_Fan16 said:

I've been a lurker for a little bit and signed up to give my few thoughts on Allen. I'm far from a expert so take my post with more then a grain of salt. 

 

Allen seems to be making improvements but I think his completion % being low has really been hurt by the WR's not getting much separation on a ton of plays, Foster has been a great assist of late but other then him Allen hasn't had much to work with(looking at you Mr. I cant take a step forward Charles Clay). If we can find another WR and get a O-line that isn't terrible I think we will all be happy

 

Welcome to the board, and thanks for sharing your thoughts...

 

...now go get your shine box!

  

[Bing Bong]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think that is unfair to Fitz. Fitz didn't do it consistently but without much talent around him (especially at receiver) he took the team on his back and Fitzmagic'd us some wins. Obviously I think Allen has potential to do it better and consistently.... but Fitz played with fire, took the team on his back and led us down the field to win games too and he was as competitive as hell.

 

 

Fitz played with some **** offense. Overachieved immensely (of course that's Fitz for you, he always does when he shouldn't be starting)

 

I'd argue Tyrod had a worse offense last year.. not that he elevated anybody. But he had hot garbage. He was playing with all the WRs we cut this year. A younger much worse Zay. Basically just had Cogs and a better Shady going for him. And a better Clay..  cool. that's probably the worst skill position players I can remember. Even over Fitz's group given Stevie and Marshawn  and Fredex.

 

Got annoyed hearing how he was on a downward spiral. Bruh our offense was on a downward spiral and not being replenished for 4 straight years. Took McDermott and Beane long enough to shoot for Foster's and McKenzie's after trotting out Matthews, Zay, Kelvin, Holmes.. Yuck!

 

I'd give Tyrod and JA 1a and 1b worst offenses to work with in the past 2 decades.

Edited December 18, 2018 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P

[C.Biscuit97]

I didn’t go through this whole thread but does anyone have the list for all qbs in this category?

 

also, as a former receiver, if the ball hits your hands, you’re so supposed to catch it.  However, some qbs throw more catchable passes than others.  You don’t need to throw a fastball every time.  Great QBs have the ability to throw the fastball and touch passes.

[Bing Bong]

21 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I didn’t go through this whole thread but does anyone have the list for all qbs in this category?

 

also, as a former receiver, if the ball hits your hands, you’re so supposed to catch it.  However, some qbs throw more catchable passes than others.  You don’t need to throw a fastball every time.  Great QBs have the ability to throw the fastball and touch passes.

 

You need to pay for PFF edge

I checked in old PFF list and he's in Chiefs Matt Cassell territory.. cool

 

Not a fan of this metric at all.

 

Just look up a PFF list and it's quarterbacks that have a good completion % regardless and random names sprinkled in.

 

2012:

1 Alex Smith

2 Aaron Rodgers

3 Russell Wilson

4 Peyton Manning

5 RGIII

6 Kaep

7 Brees

8 Big Ben

9 Matt Ryan

10 Matt Cassell

 

2013 had Cam up there.

Edited December 18, 2018 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P

[Kelly the Dog]

8 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I didn’t go through this whole thread but does anyone have the list for all qbs in this category?

 

also, as a former receiver, if the ball hits your hands, you’re so supposed to catch it.  However, some qbs throw more catchable passes than others.  You don’t need to throw a fastball every time.  Great QBs have the ability to throw the fastball and touch passes.

So you didn't watch the game? I know you know this, but Josh threw numerous passes with touch, including his very best ones (the TD, the game-clinching Croom throw, etc), and didn't throw fastballs the whole game.

[C.Biscuit97]

8 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

So you didn't watch the game? I know you know this, but Josh threw numerous passes with touch, including his very best ones (the TD, the game-clinching Croom throw, etc), and didn't throw fastballs the whole game.

Oh I did.  And that was more of a passing comment.  

 

But it I am getting a little tired about hearing how terrible our receivers are.  Who is Nick Mullens throwing to?  The Pats don’t have one receiver picked in the first round on their roster.  The Saints have a bunch of nobodies next to Rhomas, who was picked after Zay.  At some point, the qb needs to elevate the receivers. 

 

That said, Allen seems to have done that with Foster and that’s great to see.  But he is far from the only qb playing with questionable talent.

[Vicarious_Fan16]

38 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Welcome to the board, and thanks for sharing your thoughts...

 

...now go get your shine box!

  

I'd gladly shine billy batts' shoes if it would help fix the o-line

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Oh I did.  And that was more of a passing comment.  

 

But it I am getting a little tired about hearing how terrible our receivers are.  Who is Nick Mullens throwing to?  The Pats don’t have one receiver picked in the first round on their roster.  The Saints have a bunch of nobodies next to Rhomas, who was picked after Zay.  At some point, the qb needs to elevate the receivers. 

 

That said, Allen seems to have done that with Foster and that’s great to see.  But he is far from the only qb playing with questionable talent.

Mullens is throwing to arguably the best pass catching TE in the game.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

1 hour ago, BillsSB2020 said:

A ground ball is worse than a strikeout if there's a force play to be made, but I digress.

 

Nothing wrong with watching games AND analyzing data.

If you hit a ball on the ground with a guy on first you have a chance of a guy making a bad throw or losing it on the transfer or beating it out. If you stoke out nothing happens

[Bing Bong]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Mullens is throwing to arguably the best pass catching TE in the game.

And Saints have Michael Thomas.. you obviously need good WRs. I just think this metric has to get subjective on what's catchable and not. Cam is in a lot of old lists I see available. It's a combination of having good completion %, a lot of drops, and probably a healthy amount of just-inaccurate-passes regularly thrown that average Joe #3s and 4s aren't gonna come down with all the time with circus catches

 

Tom Brady never makes it, because he throws it away and to the dirt so much basically.

Edited December 18, 2018 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P

[BillsSB2020]

1 minute ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

If you hit a ball on the ground with a guy on first you have a chance of a guy making a bad throw or losing it on the transfer or beating it out. If you stoke out nothing happens

There's a better chance of a DP than a throwaway. Just sayin.

[Bing Bong]

7 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Oh I did.  And that was more of a passing comment.  

 

But it I am getting a little tired about hearing how terrible our receivers are.  Who is Nick Mullens throwing to?  The Pats don’t have one receiver picked in the first round on their roster.  The Saints have a bunch of nobodies next to Rhomas, who was picked after Zay.  At some point, the qb needs to elevate the receivers. 

 

That said, Allen seems to have done that with Foster and that’s great to see.  But he is far from the only qb playing with questionable talent.

Saints have Michael Thomas. Allen clearly needs better WRs, but I don't think this is the metric to prove it.

[WideNine]

7 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Oh I did.  And that was more of a passing comment.  

 

But it I am getting a little tired about hearing how terrible our receivers are.  Who is Nick Mullens throwing to?  The Pats don’t have one receiver picked in the first round on their roster.  The Saints have a bunch of nobodies next to Rhomas, who was picked after Zay.  At some point, the qb needs to elevate the receivers. 

 

That said, Allen seems to have done that with Foster and that’s great to see.  But he is far from the only qb playing with questionable talent.

 

One could just as easily say that the rest of our scrub receiving core need to elevate their game to Foster's level... and I don't include McKenzie in that list because I think that kid does the most with what he has.

 

What has Foster done differently? Reports a few weeks ago indicated that Foster was going out of his way to put in extra reps with Allen to get their timing down, when KB was asked by Allen to practice routes and timing he so much as said "meh". The success these two are having is not an accident.. the receivers need to put in the work and elevate their own play.

 

McD indicated as much when asked about Foster, basically said that he hoped the other receivers were watching what Foster has done, the lessons he learned by work he puts in behind the scenes to find success.

 

“Sometimes, people need a wake-up call that this life in the NFL, as we onboard these young players, life in the NFL, you’re not on scholarship and some guys need to understand that,” McDermott said. “Some players, unfortunately, never get it.”

 

Foster agreed with his coach.

“I needed it, I needed it,” Foster told reporters. “At the end of the day it helped me grow more into a student of the game. Player of the game. It made me work on things I needed to work on. It made me just do a lot more things that I could do to benefit the team.”

[Kelly the Dog]

15 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Oh I did.  And that was more of a passing comment.  

 

But it I am getting a little tired about hearing how terrible our receivers are.  Who is Nick Mullens throwing to?  The Pats don’t have one receiver picked in the first round on their roster.  The Saints have a bunch of nobodies next to Rhomas, who was picked after Zay.  At some point, the qb needs to elevate the receivers. 

 

That said, Allen seems to have done that with Foster and that’s great to see.  But he is far from the only qb playing with questionable talent.

The Pats and Saints have excellent WR, especially compared to the Bills. Draft position has nothing to do with it. Not to mention that Josh is playing with a #2 who was the worst WR in the entire league last year, plus a #5 who was cut twice this year, a #6 and two UDFA, both of whom were cut twice this year.

 

And the Pats have two first rounders (Dorsett and Patterson, and a two in Gordon, who is one of the best WR in the league. And Edelman. And Hogan.

[WideNine]

17 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

The Pats and Saints have excellent WR, especially compared to the Bills. Draft position has nothing to do with it. Not to mention that Josh is playing with a #2 who was the worst WR in the entire league last year, plus a #5 who was cut twice this year, a #6 and two UDFA, both of whom were cut twice this year.

 

This.

 

The Bills need to do better homework on their receivers, and I agree with KTD where they are drafted means squat if they do not have the right skills, attitude, or fit into the kind of offense you want to run.

Edited December 18, 2018 by WideNine

[Doc]

1 hour ago, Kelly the Dog said:

There was a stat I saw yesterday that seemed to say in passes over ten yards in the air this season, Allen has the second highest completion percentage in the league. That is a good indication of accuracy, too.

 

He was very accurate with the short and intermediate stuff against the Lions.  But at WhyteDwarf pointed out, he had (at least) 4 drops which would have put his completion percentage at 65.4% with another 50 or so yards.  That was very astute of him.

[C.Biscuit97]

44 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Mullens is throwing to arguably the best pass catching TE in the game.

Who was a 5th round pick who had 700 yards in 4 years in college.  

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Who was a 5th round pick who had 700 yards in 4 years in college.  

 

So it's Nick Mullens that is responsible for George Kittle's performance?  Is that really where you're intending to take this point?

[C.Biscuit97]

27 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

The Pats and Saints have excellent WR, especially compared to the Bills. Draft position has nothing to do with it. Not to mention that Josh is playing with a #2 who was the worst WR in the entire league last year, plus a #5 who was cut twice this year, a #6 and two UDFA, both of whom were cut twice this year.

 

And the Pats have two first rounders (Dorsett and Patterson, and a two in Gordon, who is one of the best WR in the league. And Edelman. And Hogan.

Come on KTD.  Gordon was a 2nd round pick in the supplemental draft and Dorsett doesn’t even play after being a total bust for Indy.  Edelman was an UDFA college qb and hogan played lacrosse.  Again, Michael Thomas was picked later than Zay. These guys are elevated because of their qbs.  

 

Like i said, Allen has done a great job with Foster.  I do think Allen is progressing but I think we just look to blame all the problems on the receivers and it’s a bit unfair.  

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

So it's Nick Mullens that is responsible for George Kittle's performance?  Is that really where you're intending to take this point?

Sorry, I haven’t become a full member of the Allen cult yet.  I looking at brochures though.   

 

its not all mullens but they found a way to get a lot of production out of an after thought in the draft.  Also, Mullens (UDFA) had a very good game beating Seattle where Kittle was their 3rd leading receiver.  Honest question, are the 49ers weapons that much better than the Bills?  Or are they better at getting more out of their talent?

[WideNine]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

Come on KTD.  Gordon was a 2nd round pick in the supplemental draft and Dorsett doesn’t even play after being a total bust for Indy.  Edelman was an UDFA college qb and hogan played lacrosse.  Again, Michael Thomas was picked later than Zay. These guys are elevated because of their qbs.  

 

Like i said, Allen has done a great job with Foster.  I do think Allen is progressing but I think we just look to blame all the problems on the receivers and it’s a bit unfair.  

 

For the sake of peace between two solid posters - let's just say the truth is in the middle.

 

Our receivers needed to elevate their game, some have and some have not, AND Josh needed to get better with ball placement - which anyone watching the games knows he has done.

 

As for pulling in better weapons, for the kind of offense Josh could run, we need receivers with great hands that can stretch the field. Not all QBs can throw it on a rope 40+ yards, but ours can. You look for ways to use that to our advantage... not that a great possession type, blocking TE that can find soft spots in the shallow zones would be unwelcome.

 

 

 

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Come on KTD.  Gordon was a 2nd round pick in the supplemental draft and Dorsett doesn’t even play after being a total bust for Indy.  Edelman was an UDFA college qb and hogan played lacrosse.  Again, Michael Thomas was picked later than Zay. These guys are elevated because of their qbs.  

 

Like i said, Allen has done a great job with Foster.  I do think Allen is progressing but I think we just look to blame all the problems on the receivers and it’s a bit unfair.  

 

Michael Thomas was an absolute beast at Ohio State (despite catching passes from JT Barrett most of the time), and Josh Gordon had over 1,600 receiving yards in a single season catching passes from Jason Campbell, Brandon Weeden, and Brian Hoyer.

5 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

 

Sorry, I haven’t become a full member of the Allen cult yet.  I looking at brochures though.   

 

its not all mullens but they found a way to get a lot of production out of an after thought in the draft.  Also, Mullens (UDFA) had a very good game beating Seattle where Kittle was their 3rd leading receiver.  Honest question, are the 49ers weapons that much better than the Bills?  Or are they better at getting more out of their talent?

 

Like I said, it's too early to say anything definitive about any of these guys.  Buffalo's WRs are largely awful though.

 

I think it's a bit of both on the latter.  Kittle was darn good in college, just under-utilized.  Dante Pettis and Trent Taylor were both draft sleepers of mine as well.  But, Kyle Shanahan does a really good job of only asking his players to do what they're good at, which is something that Daboll looks like he's starting to figure out.

[C.Biscuit97]

4 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

For the sake of peace between two solid posters - let's just say the truth is in the middle.

 

Our receivers needed to elevate their game, some have and some have not, AND Josh needed to get better with ball placement - which anyone watching the games knows he has done.

 

As for pulling in better weapons, for the kind of offense Josh could run, we need receivers with great hands that can stretch the field. Not all QBs can throw it on a rope 40+ yards, but ours can. You look for ways to use that to our advantage... not that a great possession type, blocking TE that can find soft spots in the shallow zones would be unwelcome.

 

 

 

Good post and I agree.  I definitely agree we need to get Allen better weapons.  At the same time, I’ve seen great qbs make average talents into elite players.  In theory, I want Allen to do that and he’s done great with Foster.

 

but I’m all for the Trent Edwards’ treatment of having TO and Lee Evans for Allen.

[Kelly the Dog]

3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Come on KTD.  Gordon was a 2nd round pick in the supplemental draft and Dorsett doesn’t even play after being a total bust for Indy.  Edelman was an UDFA college qb and hogan played lacrosse.  Again, Michael Thomas was picked later than Zay. These guys are elevated because of their qbs.  

 

Like i said, Allen has done a great job with Foster.  I do think Allen is progressing but I think we just look to blame all the problems on the receivers and it’s a bit unfair.  

You said they didn't have a number one on their roster so I responded to that. And a #2 pick in the supplemental is the same as a regular draft because you lose your #2 in the next draft. Dorsett has 27 catches and a couple TDs as a last resort, so he does play. Now you're saying Zay freakin' Jones is as good as Michael Thomas?! Thomas just gets elevated by his QB? Zay Jones is AWFUL. Thomas makes spectacular catches all the time.