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The Athletic Subscribers...awesome breakdown of Allen's performance against Miami

DCOrange

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26CornerBlitz Hall of Famer

26CornerBlitz

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On 12/4/2018 at 10:46 PM, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

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Of the five quarterbacks selected in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft, Josh Allen was seen as the biggest project. Unlike many of his fellow draftees, Allen didn’t play Power Five competition regularly and when he did, he didn’t play well. In three games versus Power Five schools, Allen registered one touchdown and eight interceptions and a 50 percent completion rate.

 

When it came to the nuances of the QB position, Allen had a long way to go, but there were times in college where his athleticism or rocket arm took over. In the 21-17 loss to the Dolphins, that version of Allen rose up, this time against NFL level competition. Allen accounted for 88 percent of the Bills offense, a unit that ranks 31st in Football Outsiders DVOA efficiency metric.

 

Allen’s 54.5 percent completion rate in the Miami game is not going to win over box score scouts, but the numbers don’t reflect the growth that people who watched his college film and the game on Sunday have seen.

 

Early in the game, there were several opportunities for Allen to simply take what the defense gave him, but for whatever reason, he chose to either scramble or throw it away. This is a common problem with Allen because he does look to get chunk plays by trusting his arm.

 

On 2nd and 12 late in the first quarter, offensive coordinator Brian Daboll dials up a basic concept known as a ‘Shallow cross.’ It’s a concept Allen struggled with the first half of the season and one that I covered in early October. The down and distance should put Allen in the mindset that he needs to get the ball out to either WR Zay Jones or TE Charles Clay to at least set up a manageable 3rd down. Clay is running a hook route right over the ball and Jones is running the crossing route. Allen is reading the linebacker level. If they gain depth with the hook route, then the cross by Jones is wide open. That is exactly what happens, but Allen fails to get rid of it. He does face pressure as Jeremiah Sirles gets driven into his lap, but the rookie QB needed to do one of two things. Either get rid of it as soon as he hits the top of his drop or keep his base, slide to his right and get it to Jones. A lot of Allen’s issues can be traced back to how he transfers his weight when manipulating the pocket or during a throw. You can see him take a slight step to his left as his back foot hit, so now he is not in a position to smoothly slide or deliver an accurate ball. He is nearly forced to escape the pocket, but no harm done with the nine-yard gain.

 

 

 

 

15 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

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ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Last week, Josh Allen returned from injury to help the Bills take down the Jaguars. He rushed for nearly 100 yards and made huge plays with his arm.

When we sat down with former University at Buffalo quarterback Joe Licata to break down the game in detail, he pointed out a few plays that separate rookie quarterbacks from the great ones. Of course, it’s not fair to expect Allen to be Tom Brady or Drew Brees in his first season, but the plays were used to demonstrate what Allen should be striving for.

 

This week, Allen and the Bills lost to the Dolphins, but the rookie showed even more special potential as a runner and a passer. As we dove into 15 plays that tell the story of Allen’s performance, there are a handful of throws that Brady and Brees can’t make. You’re seeing the reasons the Bills moved up to draft Allen No. 7 overall. He makes throws few people on the planet can make.

 

“We’re watching a young man grow and develop right in front of our eyes,” Bills coach Sean McDermott said.

 

With the help of Licata, let’s take a look at the film.

 

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TroutDog Veteran

TroutDog

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I thought this was a great write up and shows both Josh’s flaws and where he has excelled. Also does a great job of explaining the low completion percentage. 

 

It would be nice if Josh could settle in enough to understand that moving the chains every couple of plays is as exciting as the chunk plays. 

 

Game management. 

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BillsFanMike Rookie

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He's getting better each game. That's what I was hoping for and that's what he's delivering. Lets see what he does this week against the Jets. They're looking for revenge so it should be a good game. All I want to see this year is Josh play and get better every week. If he does that, I think we may have a franchise QB.

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mjt328 Veteran

mjt328

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When people start getting excited about Josh Allen's performance Sunday, the assumption is that we are talking about his rushing totals.

But for me, the encouraging part is his growth in the passing game.

 

Forget all the scrambles.  Look at his first touchdown throw to Zay Jones.  Look at his second touchdown throw to Zay Jones.  Look at what SHOULD HAVE been a touchdown throw to Kelvin Benjamin (but he predictably dropped it).  Look at the 3rd Down sideline pass from out of his endzone.  Look at that touch pass to Patrick DiMarco down the sidelines. 

 

Heck... Even look at the final play of the game.  Yes, it was a little bit short.  But consider how much skill it took to even get the throw off - and realize it was a fingertip from being one of the most amazing plays the NFL has seen all year.  How many guys have the scrambling ability AND arm to make that play?  Maybe Rodgers, Newton and Mahomes?

 

 

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Jobot RFA

Jobot

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1 minute ago, mjt328 said:

When people start getting excited about Josh Allen's performance Sunday, the assumption is that we are talking about his rushing totals.

But for me, the encouraging part is his growth in the passing game.

 

Forget all the scrambles.  Look at his first touchdown throw to Zay Jones.  Look at his second touchdown throw to Zay Jones.  Look at what SHOULD HAVE been a touchdown throw to Kelvin Benjamin (but he predictably dropped it).  Look at the 3rd Down sideline pass from out of his endzone.  Look at that touch pass to Patrick DiMarco down the sidelines. 

 

Heck... Even look at the final play of the game.  Yes, it was a little bit short.  But consider how much skill it took to even get the throw off - and realize it was a fingertip from being one of the most amazing plays the NFL has seen all year.  How many guys have the scrambling ability AND arm to make that play?  Maybe Rodgers, Newton and Mahomes?

 

 

 

It was a Charles Clay effort away from being that... the throw was plenty good enough in this league.  

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hondo in seattle All Pro

hondo in seattle

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I don't have a subscription so I don't have access to the article.  But I wonder if anyone's charted Allen's throws?  What's his percentage when he throws deep middle?  Intermediate left sideline?  Etc.  I wonder if his completion percentage to certain parts of the field is actually solid.  

 

Allen kind of reminds me a QB from the Dan Fouts era when a lot of QBs had lower completion percentages because they threw downfield more.  

 

I wouldn't say that's the entirety of the story on Allen, but he does dump the ball off less frequently than other QBs.    I'm encouraged that Allen is no Trent "Captain Checkdown" Edwards.  It seems it would be easier to teach Allen to throw short now & then than to teach Edwards to get the ball downfield.  

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26CornerBlitz Hall of Famer

26CornerBlitz

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1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

I don't have a subscription so I don't have access to the article.  But I wonder if anyone's charted Allen's throws?  What's his percentage when he throws deep middle?  Intermediate left sideline?  Etc.  I wonder if his completion percentage to certain parts of the field is actually solid.  

 

Allen kind of reminds me a QB from the Dan Fouts era when a lot of QBs had lower completion percentages because they threw downfield more.  

 

I wouldn't say that's the entirety of the story on Allen, but he does dump the ball off less frequently than other QBs.    I'm encouraged that Allen is no Trent "Captain Checkdown" Edwards.  It seems it would be easier to teach Allen to throw short now & then than to teach Edwards to get the ball downfield.  

 

Josh Allen Week 13 Passing Chart

 

pass-chart_ALL529264_2018-reg-13_1543788

Edited by 26CornerBlitz
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Big Turk Hall of Famer

Big Turk

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1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Josh Allen Week 13 passing Chart

 

pass-chart_ALL529264_2018-reg-13_1543788

 

Does this count throwaways too? It seems to be missing 3 or 4 passes...

 

So basically almost all of Allen's incompletions were on throws of more than 20 yards downfield or a throwaway.

 

Most of his throws were pretty accurate I thought, I just dont see a guy who is wildly innacurate...I see a guy who throws the ball downfield or throws it away a lot which is going to equate to lower completion percentages.

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DCOrange Veteran

DCOrange

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1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

 

Does this count throwaways too? It seems to be missing 3 or 4 passes...

 

So basically almost all of Allen's incompletions were on throws of more than 20 yards downfield or a throwaway.

 

Most of his throws were pretty accurate I thought, I just dont see a guy who is wildly innacurate...I see a guy who throws the ball downfield or throws it away a lot which is going to equate to lower completion percentages.

Yes, the article in the OP mentions that Allen only had one incomplete pass on throws shorter than 20 yards.

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ctk232 RFA

ctk232

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4 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

On that crossing route where he takes off instead- Teller gets blown up immediately and is going backward through Allen's throwing lane and into his lap. 

It could also be argued that if he throws from the top of his drop he should hit Zay in stride over the middle - QBs have made that play. It's more the timing and recognition piece of this. He may have felt the pressure which caused him to stride and tuck and run, but I do think he had a window to throw, especially if he knows Zay is the first read on the play.

 

Yes, Sirles doesn't help by getting bull rushed, but it doesn't completely justify the tuck and run here.

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Phil The Thrill Veteran

Phil The Thrill

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7 hours ago, DCOrange said:

https://theathletic.com/692947/2018/12/04/what-we-saw-from-josh-allen-against-the-dolphins-that-the-numbers-didnt-show/

 

 

It would be nice if the guy reviewing the tape actually knew about NFL

 

If I wanted to read a fan (posing as a professional) take on footage, I would read Joe Marino or Jon Ledyard

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GoBills808 Hall of Famer

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30 minutes ago, ctk232 said:

It could also be argued that if he throws from the top of his drop he should hit Zay in stride over the middle - QBs have made that play. It's more the timing and recognition piece of this. He may have felt the pressure which caused him to stride and tuck and run, but I do think he had a window to throw, especially if he knows Zay is the first read on the play.

 

Yes, Sirles doesn't help by getting bull rushed, but it doesn't completely justify the tuck and run here.

I think next year he makes that throw. This season between missing time, a ton of learning on the fly, and line/receiver issues...seeing yet another guard on skates backing into him I get the decision. It's not optimal but it's understandable.

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Hapless Bills Fan Hall of Famer

Hapless Bills Fan

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31 minutes ago, Phil The Thrill said:

 

It would be nice if the guy reviewing the tape actually knew about NFL

 

If I wanted to read a fan (posing as a professional) take on footage, I would read Joe Marino or Jon Ledyard

 

"The Draft Network" CAO and COO vs "Cover 1/The Athletic" and Erik Turner?

 

There's no disputing of taste, they say. 

But Dude.  Srsly?  Srsly?

 

 

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Phil The Thrill Veteran

Phil The Thrill

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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

"The Draft Network" CAO and COO vs "Cover 1/The Athletic" and Erik Turner?

 

There's no disputing of taste, they say. 

But Dude.  Srsly?  Srsly?

 

 

 

Just saying....neither Turner not Ledyard have ever worked on a college or NFL staff.  They both have high school coaching backgrounds like most people here in the forum.  Turner is actually a customs agent at the Canadian Border.  

 

Their analysis is akin to a former high school football player or coach breaking down film.  It’s cool - some of the insight is interesting.  In my opinion their opinion holds as much weight as some of established, proven players and NFL executives that breakdown film.

 

I will say The Athletic is a professional media, whereas the Draft Network is a glorified fan blog.   So props to Turner for getting that gig.

 

If you want film analysis on The Athletic, read the breakdown from Matt Fairburn and Joe Licata.  Joe actually ran the offense as a QB at UB and was a camp arm for Cincinnati.  

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billsredneck1 Veteran

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6 hours ago, BillsFanMike said:

He's getting better each game. That's what I was hoping for and that's what he's delivering. Lets see what he does this week against the Jets. They're looking for revenge so it should be a good game. All I want to see this year is Josh play and get better every week. If he does that, I think we may have a franchise QB.

i want to see 30 attempts and 300 yds. i want to see that we have a 300 yd. thrower for once. i do believe he will work the pocket more, maybe this week he works on his short game, idk, but at some point before the end i wanna see a 300 yd. game.

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greenyellowred Practice Squad

greenyellowred

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I was bored and I decided to search YouTube for Josh Allen videos to get inspired. I found this one, released just hours ago, the analyzes Allen's footwork that needs to be corrected before he can make the leap to the next level. The video also points out he has made progess under Daboll. I hope the coaches see this.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rQ67QmlGJI

 

To summarize, the problem is Allen is not pointing his lead foot the right way to make an accurate throw. This is the first thing they taght me when I learned to throw years ago.

 

[Mod note merging this in because both the YouTube vid and Athletic article are Cover 1/Erik Turner analysis]

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Phil The Thrill Veteran

Phil The Thrill

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23 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

 

they share some of the same writers

 

Let me rephrase that....I’m not a fan of Eric Turner, because I don’t think he has a credible voice.  He played high school football like we all did.  Never worked for a college team, never worked for an NFL team, never even worked for an XFL or lingerie bowl team.  

 

He works hard no doubt, but again it’s like some of us watching film and critiquing players.  He a fan. Period. 

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