Predictions For The Bills Surprise Cuts/Trades of The 2018 Preseason

[BuffaloRush]

4 hours ago, Frez said:

McCoy gets traded or released. 

 

That would be a gigantic move for sure.  When you look at the other RB’s on the roster, I can’t see this happening.  Chris Ivory or Travares Cadet as feature back?  It will never happen 

[Tsaikotic]

10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

To the bolded - he was but that was also by FAR his best game of the season. Jax suits him... they attack you downhill and Lorax still has some value moving forward.  When he is moving sideways or backwards he is an absolute liability and too many teams exploited that last year.  They have added another pass rusher which gives them depth at DE, they may well yet add another vet linebacker and I just think 'Zo's contribution in 2018 may well be limited to what he offers you as a leader and a locker room influence. I thought he was much more bad than good on defense and less impactful than in 2016 on special teams (he has noticeably got a little slower).  To me there must be a crossover point at which you aren't willing to pay for leadership but declining production and it wouldn't shock me if that point came this summer. 

 

There is normally a majority for 2 now.  In 2017 at final 53 day 19 teams kept two Quarterbacks and 13 kept three (and a couple of the teams keeping 3 - Cincy and Tampa) immediately put one of their 3 on the reserve / injured list.  

 

None of those are projected to be qualifying UFAs for comp pick purposes.  The Bills qualifying UFAs are:

 

Lotulelei

Murphy

McCarron

Bodine

Bush

Stanford

ahh ok thx...well I don't really see any of those names being cut..sooo I guess the names I wrote I still see being cut but just forget the whole comp pick thing..lol

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Tsaikotic said:

ahh ok thx...well I don't really see any of those names being cut..sooo I guess the names I wrote I still see being cut but just forget the whole comp pick thing..lol

 

Gaines is the closest to being a qualifier of the ones you mentioned.  He would need to play a lot though and he'd need a lot of people above him to end up not on the roster of the team that signed them.  I think Gaines probably makes the roster though because they are short on experienced defensive backs.  

[947]

9 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

 

based on what?

Murphy is a stud & just signed a big FA deal. He is an absolute perfect fit for our D, I foresee 10 sacks. 0% chance he gets cut.

[BuffaloRush]

2 hours ago, eball said:

 

This goes down as one of the few serious (non-trolling) posts I disagree with almost completely.  Wow.  It's like we are watching and analyzing two totally different organizations.

 

1.  No way.  Team captain, veteran leader, true believer in "the process."  His snaps will be reduced.

2.  They like Ducasse, and you even admit he played well late last season.  I don't know what Miller's deal is.

3.  No way the Bills go with a rookie and McCarron as their only two QBs.

4.  Come on (see #1).

5.  Geez.  The guy is a perfect fit for McD's scheme.

 

Wildcard -- this is a McD draft pick.  No way they cut ties before year 2.

 

I think that might be a trolling post and agree on all of your points.

 

The only way I see Ducasse getting released is if he plays very poorly and Teller and Miller absolutely kill it.  I do agree that coaches do seem to like Vlad and I think he’s a safer pick than Groy 

[Domdab99]

3 minutes ago, 947 said:

Murphy is a stud & just signed a big FA deal. He is an absolute perfect fit for our D, I foresee 10 sacks. 0% chance he gets cut.

 

I don't think he'll get cut, either...but when has he been a stud before? 

[BuffaloHokie13]

Peterman, Holmes, Ducasse, or Mills would be my guesses

[JP's Voice]

5 hours ago, Frez said:

McCoy gets traded or released. 

Wait until camp when a RB on a contender goes down and a team is desperate for a RB. I think he would be able to get us a 2 or 3 from a team like say Dallas, NYG, JAX, etc. I think the return would be worth it too. Aging RB doesn't serve a purpose for us this year. I would also think that Charles Clay could be a good add to a contender in need of a TE if their starter goes down.

[GunnerBill]

38 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

The only way I see Ducasse getting released is if he plays very poorly and Teller and Miller absolutely kill it.  I do agree that coaches do seem to like Vlad and I think he’s a safer pick than Groy 

 

Ducasse is one of the safer players on the roster.  He played better than most, myself included, expected in 2017 and he is Castillo's boy.  I'd be shocked if he doesn't start at RG, let alone make the roster.  I am a big John Miller fan and I would hope the move back to more of a power man scheme would suit him but I think he has an uphill battle to win the job back under this staff.  

[LABILLBACKER]

12 hours ago, Misterbluesky said:

Not a chance Groy gets the axe....no way,no how. Bodine is the one that might be gone by September...picking him up a few months ago was a depth concern early.Not sure what happened with Miller last year...he was the starter until the middle of the rain filled Bengals game...then POOF...he never dressed again.

How Groy is not 1 on the depth chart at C or LG is beyond me? I see A. Washington and Holmes gone.

[MJS]

1 hour ago, dneveu said:

 

I agree that he's not a lock.  However, who's replacing him?  

 

He was legit our best player on the field in the playoff game against Jax.  I'm not sure the 1.8 mil in cap savings is worth releasing a special teams contributor, and a player who can play both SAM and DE.

 

I could see trading lawson, as cutting him costs more than keeping him.  For those drawing a ragland parallel, he did start 10 games last year FWIW.  

Im hopeful that we cut mills TBH.

 

I don't hope we cut Mills until we have a clearly better player to replace him. Until then we better keep him.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

6 minutes ago, MJS said:

 

I don't hope we cut Mills until we have a clearly better player to replace him. Until then we better keep him.

 

My hope is that Newhouse or McDermott can replace him in the starting lineup.

[apuszczalowski]

4 hours ago, eball said:

 

This goes down as one of the few serious (non-trolling) posts I disagree with almost completely.  Wow.  It's like we are watching and analyzing two totally different organizations.

 

1.  No way.  Team captain, veteran leader, true believer in "the process."  His snaps will be reduced.

2.  They like Ducasse, and you even admit he played well late last season.  I don't know what Miller's deal is.

3.  No way the Bills go with a rookie and McCarron as their only two QBs.

4.  Come on (see #1).

5.  Geez.  The guy is a perfect fit for McD's scheme.

 

Wildcard -- this is a McD draft pick.  No way they cut ties before year 2.

My only response is to your number 3, how is having Peterman going to make the team (or QBs) better then not having him there? I dont think it will make a difference. AJ is the veteran and has played and started more games in his career then Peterman, and Allen is the future (potential starter this year). Petermans one year NFL career experience with less then 2 full games completed (one being the worst first half of play by a QB in the history of the league) isnt going to make or break the locker room. And with a new OC this year it cant even be said he has experience with the offence.

 

I do expect that they may try and sneak him through cuts to try and keep him on the PS though.

[eball]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

There is normally a majority for 2 now.  In 2017 at final 53 day 19 teams kept two Quarterbacks and 13 kept three (and a couple of the teams keeping 3 - Cincy and Tampa) immediately put one of their 3 on the reserve / injured list.  

 

 

 

Ok, so my next question (sorry, I'm too lazy to do the research myself) would be how many of the 21 teams who kept two had an established starter?  I'm guessing most of them, while the teams who kept three likely had an "uncertain" situation at the position.

[H2o]

One can only hope that Mills and Ducasse have been upgraded to where they are expendable. I expect them to be kept around for depth though because injuries happen. 

[Rico]

Shaq Lawson

John Miller

Adolphus Washington

 

Nick O’Leary last Lil Doug draftee standing.

 

 

[Mark Vader]

I don't know if these are "surprise" picks, but here is my list.

 

Adolphus Washington. His fate may have been sealed the minute the Bills drafted Harrison Phillips. Add in Tenny Palepoi and Washington will have a tough time getting enough snaps.

 

Andre Holmes. With the addition of Jeremy Kerley and other younger receivers, Holmes will have to really justify his contract on this team. He will have to be the best Special Teams player on the Bills in order to survive.

 

Patrick DiMarco. He's the only Fullback on the team. If the Bills wanted to have a Fullback in the system, why didn't they add someone else for competition in training camp?

 

Ramon Humber. He wasn't missed that much when he went down with an injury last year. Tanner Vallejo and Deon Lacey are younger and have more upside.

 

John Miller. I really don't know what issues he is having, but he could get lost in the shuffle if he doesn't have a strong training camp.

 

Logan Thomas. I know he is just a back-up, but I don't think McDermott is going to wait much longer for him to become a top Tight End. Especially with Khari Lee, Jason Croom & Keith Towbrudge on the depth chart. Since those guys are REAL Tight Ends.

[John from Riverside]

Actually....if Incognito and Wood were still here they would be on this list imo.   A lot of people are lamenting the loss of those 2 (and Glenn....who barely played last year) but i think they would have been gone anyways.

 

I think Adolphus Washington is in serious trouble.....he has not been as advertised

[Mark Vader]

8 hours ago, Frez said:

McCoy gets traded or released. 

Enough with this nonsense!

 

Shady isn't going anywhere.

[cba fan]

3 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

 

based on what?

He had a stud year in Wash with 9 sacks before his problems happened with PED's.

[GoBills808]

8 hours ago, Frez said:

McCoy gets traded or released. 

I had this as my prediction before they took Allen. My thought was if they had gone with Cousins they would have traded/released McCoy and taken a RB in rounds 2-4, but I don't think it's likely they'll be relying on McCarron and/or a rookie QB to carry the bulk of the offense as it stands now.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

(...) Who in this roster do you feel might be a candidate for a surprise cut or a surprise trade.  Here are a few thoughts:

Ryan Groy - He is in the final year of a 2 year $5,000,000 deal.  The Bills have him listed at guard and I know some are penciling him in at a starting guard spot.  However the coaching staff seemed very reluctant to use Groy at Guard when Richie Incognito was injured.  Is this a telling sign that they don't want him playing guard?  Or that they prefer him at Center?  Either way, with Wyatt Teller, Vlad Ducasse, and Jon Miller, there is definitely competition at that position.  The team also signed Russell Bodine for essentially the same money as Groy.  The difference is more money is guaranteed for Bodine, essentially making Groy more of a candidate for release. 

 

Remember that game where Chan Gailey started Levitre at center?

 

Yeah, that.

 

Smart teams carry a center, and a competent backup center.  If you have your backup center playing guard and he gets hurt, then who's your backup center?

 

Unless the Bills really like that C from Harvard they got (Adam Redmond) or acquire someone else who can play center, that's their reason to pencil Groy in as the backup center/guard.

 

 

[NickelCity]

3 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

based on what?

 

Some of his performances in DC and his career at Stanford. 

[GunnerBill]

34 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Remember that game where Chan Gailey started Levitre at center?

 

Yeah, that.

 

Smart teams carry a center, and a competent backup center.  If you have your backup center playing guard and he gets hurt, then who's your backup center?

 

Unless the Bills really like that C from Harvard they got (Adam Redmond) or acquire someone else who can play center, that's their reason to pencil Groy in as the backup center/guard.

 

 

 

I believe that is absolutely how this regime sees it. They value center almost to an old school level. They come from an organisation that valued center as a leadership position, a tone setter and an anchor. 

 

They don't think all interior OL are interchangeable. If you are on their roster as a center they might ask you to get them out of a game at guard but they are not going to rely on you long term there because they want you at center. 

[Royale with Cheese]

39 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Remember that game where Chan Gailey started Levitre at center?

 

Yeah, that.

 

Smart teams carry a center, and a competent backup center.  If you have your backup center playing guard and he gets hurt, then who's your backup center?

 

Unless the Bills really like that C from Harvard they got (Adam Redmond) or acquire someone else who can play center, that's their reason to pencil Groy in as the backup center/guard.

 

 

 

Oh man the Levitre game...was that at Minnesota?  In shotgun, there was multiple times in which he didn't get any air on the ball, he was rolling it like a bowling ball.

[HappyDays]

A big surprise I could see happening is McCarron. I wouldn't say it's likely, maybe just a 20% chance, but if Peterman looks as good or better we don't need to pay his salary.

[John from Riverside]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I believe that is absolutely how this regime sees it. They value center almost to an old school level. They come from an organisation that valued center as a leadership position, a tone setter and an anchor. 

 

They don't think all interior OL are interchangeable. If you are on their roster as a center they might ask you to get them out of a game at guard but they are not going to rely on you long term there because they want you at center. 

This is a little off topic...but the center talk got me thinking about the Josh Allen film.  Does anyone else notice how bad the snaps from center were in the film?   High....high...high

Just now, HappyDays said:

A big surprise I could see happening is McCarron. I wouldn't say it's likely, maybe just a 20% chance, but if Peterman looks as good or better we don't need to pay his salary.

I think it would be absolutely cray cray to get rid of the only veteran QB experience you have on the team.  AJM is not making that much money for a QB to begin with

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

A big surprise I could see happening is McCarron. I wouldn't say it's likely, maybe just a 20% chance, but if Peterman looks as good or better we don't need to pay his salary.

 

Yea I think they will only keep 2 myself and while Peterman is the longer shot to make it AJM is not assured if he and Peterman are neck and neck... especially if they are neck and neck for the backup job. If they are neck and neck for the starter I think AJM's live game experience he would get the nod. 

[HappyDays]

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I think it would be absolutely cray cray to get rid of the only veteran QB experience you have on the team.  AJM is not making that much money for a QB to begin with

 

Normally I'd agree but the Bills didn't seek out any particular QB. They waited until every other team had signed someone and then they signed the last QB standing. So I don't think they care, they just need someone capable that can maybe start a few games at the beginning of the season. Like I said it's a small chance because it's dependent on Peterman beating out McCarron, but if he does I don't see why they'd keep McCarron around.

[JohnC]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Normally I'd agree but the Bills didn't seek out any particular QB. They waited until every other team had signed someone and then they signed the last QB standing. So I don't think they care, they just need someone capable that can maybe start a few games at the beginning of the season. Like I said it's a small chance because it's dependent on Peterman beating out McCarron, but if he does I don't see why they'd keep McCarron around.

If McCarron was dropped there would be no veteran presence at that position. Even if McCarron was a backup he would still be useful in the film room and practice field for the future qb, Allen. As it stands McCarron is still at a bargain basement price and he can with no cost be pushed out the door next year. Another thing working in McCarron's favor for retention is that he seems like the kind of person who whatever his role is he would be a good teammate. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 minutes ago, JohnC said:

If McCarron was dropped there would be no veteran presence at that position. Even if McCarron was a backup he would still be useful in the film room and practice field for the future qb, Allen. As it stands McCarron is still at a bargain basement price and he can with no cost be pushed out the door next year. Another thing working in McCarron's favor for retention is that he seems like the kind of person who whatever his role is he would be a good teammate. 

I think Matt Moore and Derek Anderson are both still available and both have ties to Beane. I'm certainly not saying McC should get released, but if he proves to not be worth a roster spot there are veteran options with more experience.

[rodneykm]

The biggest name for me would be Lorenzo Alexander. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

26 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Oh man the Levitre game...was that at Minnesota?  In shotgun, there was multiple times in which he didn't get any air on the ball, he was rolling it like a bowling ball.

 

Miami as I recall.  It was raining, if I remember correctly.   Ask a guy who's never done it, to start at center in an away game in the rain.

 

Bad Things happen and not in the Bruce Smith Shoe Ad sense.

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I think Matt Moore and Derek Anderson are both still available and both have ties to Beane. I'm certainly not saying McC should get released, but if he proves to not be worth a roster spot there are veteran options with more experience.

Why replace a qb with a similar qb at nearly the same price? If Allen emerges by his second year McCarron would still be a good backup qb. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

Why replace a qb with a similar qb at nearly the same price? If Allen emerges by his second year McCarron would still be a good backup qb. 

You're making assumptions on cost and ability that I'm not ready to make. The premise I presented was that McCarron was so bad that he proved he wasn't worth a roster spot. However unlikely that may be.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

32 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Yea I think they will only keep 2 myself and while Peterman is the longer shot to make it AJM is not assured if he and Peterman are neck and neck... especially if they are neck and neck for the backup job. If they are neck and neck for the starter I think AJM's live game experience he would get the nod. 

 

Could just be me, but essentially if the Bills cut McCarron they will have paid him $4.9M to smile at the microphones a few times and play catch in shorts.

 

I don't think they gave him $4.9M guaranteed at signing to send the Turk after him even if, by some chance, he looks similar to Peterman in TC and preseason.

 

Preseason is not regular season as we know - some preseason heroes don't look good for-real.  $4.9M is a lot of jellybeans to pay a guy for a training camp competition with last year's rookie. 

 

IMHO, Beane and McDermott decided to swap McCarron in and Taylor out for a reason, and that reason had to do with keeping a guy who has been in the league a few years (and who had some specific qualities they felt that McCarron had and Taylor did not), whether he's playing or backup.

 

Just my view.

 

 

[SouthNYfan]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Could just be me, but essentially if the Bills cut McCarron they will have paid him $4.9M to smile at the microphones a few times and play catch in shorts.

 

I don't think they gave him $4.9M guaranteed at signing to send the Turk after him even if, by some chance, he looks similar to Peterman in TC and preseason.

 

Preseason is not regular season as we know - some preseason heroes don't look good for-real.  $4.9M is a lot of jellybeans to pay a guy for a training camp competition with last year's rookie. 

 

IMHO, Beane and McDermott decided to swap McCarron in and Taylor out for a reason, and that reason had to do with having a guy who has been in the league a few years in the QB room all season long, whether he's playing or backup.

 

Just my view.

 

 

 

I concur.

Zero reason to not keep all 3.

You have Peterman on a super cheap contract, and AJ on a great team friendly deal that is incentive laden, so if he doesn't win out, he's not making a ton of $$ and rides the pine.

No reason to not keep all 3.

[Kirby Jackson]

Guys in jeopardy of not making the team:

Newhouse, Peterman, Gaines, Holmes, Washington, Ivory, Lorax, Thomas, Bush, Miller, Ducasse and Mills.

 

Obviously all of those guys aren’t going to get cut but I could see Mills or Newhouse. I could see Miller or Vlad, etc... I may be forgetting some but think that each of those guys is fighting for a roster spot. 

[JohnC]

9 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

You're making assumptions on cost and ability that I'm not ready to make. The premise I presented was that McCarron was so bad that he proved he wasn't worth a roster spot. However unlikely that may be.

If McCarron was dreadful as your hypothetical premise suggests I'm sure he would be replaced just like any other player regardless of position. I'm confident that this staff knows what McCarron's ability is and what they can expect from him. His contract and term length reflect what their expectation of him is. 

[SouthNYfan]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Guys in jeopardy of not making the team:

Newhouse, Peterman, Gaines, Holmes, Washington, Ivory, Lorax, Thomas, Bush, Miller, Ducasse and Mills.

 

Obviously all of those guys aren’t going to get cut but I could see Mills or Newhouse. I could see Miller or Vlad, etc... I may be forgetting some but think that each of those guys is fighting for a roster spot. 

 

I don't understand the want to move on from young guys on cheap deals.

He's making less than 800k a year, has 3 years (including this upcoming) at that price, I see zero reason to not just keep him as insurance backup until the end at least.

You aren't going to get a guy for that cheap to replace him.

27 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I think Matt Moore and Derek Anderson are both still available and both have ties to Beane. I'm certainly not saying McC should get released, but if he proves to not be worth a roster spot there are veteran options with more experience.

 

Dude.

He only has a $3.0 million cap hit and $4.9 in a dead cap hit if they release him.

Why would they spend $1.9 MORE in cap to cut a guy who hasn't even played a regular season game for them yet??

Y'all need to look at contracts before posing these suggestions.