Zay Jones - 2018

[BillsBytheBay]

The kid came in with a history of catching EVERYTHING thrown at him.  I think the jump was big and the offense had issues all over.  I expect he'll turn into an adequate slot guy soon enough.

[Logic]

Personally, I think it's really hard to form opinions on Bills receivers based on the past few years due to the dreadfulness of our passing offense in general and the throwing inadequacies of our quarterback in particular. Case in point? Robert Woods, Sammy Watkins, Chris Hogan, and Marquise Goodwin were considered a "below average" WR corps in Buffalo. Suddenly, they're all quality players elsewhere. The Bills threw the ball with such seldomness and inefficiency that it's simply difficult to deduce much useful data about the players in said offense.

In terms of Zay Jones, the thing that seemed to plague him last year was a case of the Yips. He dropped a few early passes and got into his own head about it and couldn't get out of his own way. It also came out later that he played most of the year with a torn labrum.

All together, given the jump in competition level he faced in year one, the jump receivers typically make from year one to year two, his return to full health, and the additions of what will hopefully prove to be higher quality passers, I expect Zay Jones to make a big jump in production and quell any questions about whether he's a bust. I never expect him to turn into a top 20 receiver in the NFL, but I think he'll have a long career as a dependable chain-moving slot possession receiver. In order for him to reach optimal production, it really seems to me he needs to play primarily out of the slot and not be depended on to be "the guy" in the passing game.

[artmalibu]

Zay is the modern day Chris Kelsay

 

Some folks have to have a wiping boy  

[Green Lightning]

2 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

 

Marv didn't play Moulds much his first season.   Was a big believer in sitting rooks.

 

I remember he ran a kickoff back for a TD

Year two was meh. Year three was a stunner. Love to have that kind of talent on the team now.

[MarlinTheMagician]

If his head is right, he will almost certainly be better.  How much better is the question.  He was showing signs in second half.  Could make a nice step.  

[purple haze]

6 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

...didn't he play with a torn labrum most of the season?.............

According to reports he did.  Had surgery after the season.

[vincec]

If it were just the drops I'd be more optimistic. He seemed to have trouble adjusting to balls and making plays on the passes thrown to him. The game seemed a little to fast for him. Given that he's not super big or super fast, he really need to master the receiving craft if he's going to make it.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

4 hours ago, Buffalo86 said:

Zay gets his best separation when he's running around butt naked.  I kid!  Would love to see him turn it around, but don't have the highest hopes. 

 

Heck no man, his brother was all over him

[fansince88]

Well, he has been practicing with his brother so.....

[DCOrange]

My big issue outside of his drop issues was the way that he was utilized. In college, he was almost exclusively used on underneath stuff: screens, drags, curls, etc. and he was by far at his best when playing out of the slot. In Buffalo, he was lined up out wide and asked to be the team's intermediate/deep threat, two areas where he has always struggled. The fact that he struggled as a result isn't really a surprise.

 

Personally, I think he was extremely overrated in the draft last year anyways, so my expectations have never been particularly high with him and I think they could have gotten a similar player far later in the draft, but Buffalo is stuck with him and should at least try to utilize him to his strengths. They didn't do that with his rookie season. In fact, Dennison used played to very few of his players' strengths last year.

[eball]

A friend of mine is a big ECU booster.  He absolutely loved Zay coming out of college and would text me throughout last season.  He claims Zay's family is incredibly solid and supportive, and thinks last year was just a bit of a shock for him.  He expects Zay to really turn the corner this season.  Fingers crossed.

 

 

11 hours ago, artmalibu said:

Zay is the modern day Chris Kelsay

 

Some folks have to have a wiping boy  

 

I think those are typically reserved for royalty.

 

Edited May 8, 2018 by eball

[Soda Popinski]

Just now, eball said:

A friend of mine is a big ECU booster.  He absolutely loved Zay coming out of college and would text me throughout last season.  He claims Zay's family is incredibly solid and supportive, and thinks last year was just a bit of a shock for him.  He expects Zay to really turn the corner this season.  Fingers crossed.

That is my expectation too.   It's an adjustment from college to the NFL for every player, but I kind of think Zay had extra pressure on him due to the family ties.  It's not easy to live up to expectations sometimes, he needs to continue to work hard, but he needs to learn to relax and let the game come to him as well.   

[Teddy KGB]

12 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Don’t look now but he is starting for another team

 

the revisionist history is stupid like zay was not dropping catchable balls because of who was throwing it

 

 

 

No one else caught them either.   

 

The Bills passing game with Tyrod was ??

 

Browns traded a 3rd round pick for a guy who will be keeping the bench warm all winter long.  

 

Time for Zay to shine.     He had 399 catches pre Taylor. 

Edited May 8, 2018 by Teddy KGB

[DCOrange]

33 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

No one else caught them either.   

 

The Bills passing game with Tyrod was ??

 

Browns traded a 3rd round pick for a guy who will be keeping the bench warm all winter long.  

 

Time for Zay to shine.     He had 399 catches pre Taylor. 

 

Everyone else caught Tyrod's passes far more than Zay. It isn't even remotely close to be honest. Using PlayerProfiler.com's numbers, here's the numbers (keep in mind that they eliminating "uncatchable" passes):

 

Benjamin: 71.6% catch rate, 9.0% drop rate

Thompson: 73.1% catch rate, 5.8% drop rate

Matthews: 80.6% catch rate, 9.7% drop rate

Zay Jones: 61.4% catch rate, 15.9% drop rate

 

I also took the liberty of finding a bunch of WRs that could be grouped with Zay based on the average route depth, listed below:

Josh Doctson

Alshon Jeffery

Corey Coleman

Mike Wallace

AJ Green

Tyrell Williams

Ricardo Lewis

Torrey Smith

DeAndre Hopkins

 

That group's averages were 73.9% and 8.5% respectively. Everyone, with the exception of Doctson and Zay, fell within a range of 70.4% to 78.7% in terms of catch percentage. Zay and Doctson were at 61.4% and 62.5% respectively. In terms of drop %, Ricardo Lewis (20%) was the only player that was worse than Zay, though Coleman (15.6%) was close to Zay as well. Everyone else ranged from 4.9% to 10.9%.

 

Looking at the top 10 rookie WRs in terms of targets, we're left with a group of:

Cooper Kupp

Juju Smith-Schuster

Keelan Cole

Trent Taylor

Zay Jones

Corey Davis

Kenny Golladay

Chris Godwin

Dede Westbrook

Kendrick Bourne

 

In that group, the average (excluding Zay), had a catch percentage of 78.7% and a drop % of 5.2% (again, compared to 61.4% and 15.9% for Zay). Nobody is within 10% of Zay in terms of catch %, with the range outside of him going from 71.8% (Golladay) to 91.9% (Godwin). In terms of drop %, Dede Westbrook is the closest at 14.7%.

 

Suffice to say, Zay was horrible compared to his teammates, compared to those that ran similarly deep routes, and compared to his fellow rookie class.

 

Again, there's room for hope; I think Dennison pretty much put him in positions that played to his greatest weaknesses rather than his strengths, and he was reportedly playing through an injury as well, but he was objectively horrific as a rookie.

Edited May 8, 2018 by DCOrange

[BillsfanAZ]

17 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

This is such bs

 

Say what you want about TT.....but passes were hitting Zay IN THE HANDS

 

When that is supposed to be your forte in college dont B word about the QB when the football actually hits you in the hands.

How quickly we forget after the season is over. Zay did drop some good passes by Taylor. There were also bad passes by Taylor that he caught. Lets not forget that over 35% of the passes thrown his way were uncatchable. 

[Irv]

I think Zay's going to be a lot better once he gets the uniform thing figured out.  

 

[YodaMan79]

Lets hope they get him an appointment with Nelson Agholor's sports psychologist and the QB and coaches put him in a position to ball out.  If NA could recover from what he was going through I have hope for Zay.  We need some mid-tier players to step up and surprise us and the league. 

Edited May 8, 2018 by YodaMan79

[elltrain22]

It's very hard for college WR's to step in and contribute on a WR1 or WR2 level. NFL db's are so much faster, bigger, and stronger than they are accustomed to and its a heck of  a learning curve for them. Once in a while, you get a talent like Julio Jones or OBJ, but for the most part, most rookie WR's  struggle. 

 

Zay played hurt all season, plus Tyrod never threw the ball to him or any WR ever!! Plus, Dennison didn't design too many plays for Zay to do what he does best. Why do I believe that Zay will have a much better 2nd season?? 

• Better at the QB position
• Hopefully better offensive scheme that will utilize Zay properly in the passing game. Properly means, use him in  the slot, run slants, posts, and any route that involves cutting and using his terrific feet.
• He is a complete WR. Speed, decent size, good at running routes,  and has great hands. Struggled a bit last year, but I would bet anyone that this is  def not a pattern of things to come

[Mr. WEO]

He's had a great 2018 so far...

[C.Biscuit97]

I really wanted JuJu but I think Zay just lost his confidence and that’s huge as a pro.  I think no one questioned his hands so when he has all those drops, it’s more about confidence than ability.

 

that said, I don’t think Zay will ever be a star type receiver.  His ceiling is probably Robert Woods, but obviously it’s dependent on qb play.

[Irv]

Should not blame Zay's crapiness on Tyrod.  Zay had crappy QB's in college and still caught 5000 passes:  Here are his 2015-2016 QB's

 

Phillip Nelson:            Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Garnder Minshew:     Washington State

Blake Kemp:                Appears to be out of football

James Summers:      Undrafted.  On Pittsburgh Steelers roster as running back.

[Da webster guy]

17 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

Year two was meh. Year three was a stunner. Love to have that kind of talent on the team now.

 

Still remember my first training camp watching Moulds play.  I was against the fence and he caught a few in front of me.   He looked ten feet tall out there and was in such good shape.   Ripping the ball away from guys, one handers, short routes, go routes.   What a player.

 

The Bledsoe Peerless Moulds big year was a fun offense to watch for sure.

[JMF2006]

21 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

Big year coming.      No more 60 yard games from the Qb position 

 

Even 240 triples the production

[artmalibu]

9 hours ago, DCOrange said:

 

Everyone else caught Tyrod's passes far more than Zay. It isn't even remotely close to be honest. Using PlayerProfiler.com's numbers, here's the numbers (keep in mind that they eliminating "uncatchable" passes):

 

Benjamin: 71.6% catch rate, 9.0% drop rate

Thompson: 73.1% catch rate, 5.8% drop rate

Matthews: 80.6% catch rate, 9.7% drop rate

Zay Jones: 61.4% catch rate, 15.9% drop rate

 

I also took the liberty of finding a bunch of WRs that could be grouped with Zay based on the average route depth, listed below:

Josh Doctson

Alshon Jeffery

Corey Coleman

Mike Wallace

AJ Green

Tyrell Williams

Ricardo Lewis

Torrey Smith

DeAndre Hopkins

 

That group's averages were 73.9% and 8.5% respectively. Everyone, with the exception of Doctson and Zay, fell within a range of 70.4% to 78.7% in terms of catch percentage. Zay and Doctson were at 61.4% and 62.5% respectively. In terms of drop %, Ricardo Lewis (20%) was the only player that was worse than Zay, though Coleman (15.6%) was close to Zay as well. Everyone else ranged from 4.9% to 10.9%.

 

Looking at the top 10 rookie WRs in terms of targets, we're left with a group of:

Cooper Kupp

Juju Smith-Schuster

Keelan Cole

Trent Taylor

Zay Jones

Corey Davis

Kenny Golladay

Chris Godwin

Dede Westbrook

Kendrick Bourne

 

In that group, the average (excluding Zay), had a catch percentage of 78.7% and a drop % of 5.2% (again, compared to 61.4% and 15.9% for Zay). Nobody is within 10% of Zay in terms of catch %, with the range outside of him going from 71.8% (Golladay) to 91.9% (Godwin). In terms of drop %, Dede Westbrook is the closest at 14.7%.

 

Suffice to say, Zay was horrible compared to his teammates, compared to those that ran similarly deep routes, and compared to his fellow rookie class.

 

Again, there's room for hope; I think Dennison pretty much put him in positions that played to his greatest weaknesses rather than his strengths, and he was reportedly playing through an injury as well, but he was objectively horrific as a rookie.

 

 

According to your source Zays drop rate was 9.5%  https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/zay-jones/

 

I watched all the games and must be blind because I cant remember seeing him drop 7 balls that I figured were catchable.  I surly wouldnt count the pass at the end of the Panthers game a drop tho.  

 

[3rdand12]

21 hours ago, artmalibu said:

Zay is the modern day Chris Kelsay

 

Some folks have to have a wiping boy  

Well honestly, i always cheered for Chris  too.

[SouthNYfan]

On 5/7/2018 at 5:44 PM, BuffaloTX said:

Neither was Eric Mould's first 2 years. He was a 1st round pick

 

 

People love to give up on young players early nowadays.

They forget that we have him for about 2 mil a year for 3 more seasons (including this upcoming one)

Might as well let it play out.

This year is probably wash because of the QB change, but would still expect some return to his sure handed college ways

[3rdand12]

10 hours ago, DCOrange said:

My big issue outside of his drop issues was the way that he was utilized. In college, he was almost exclusively used on underneath stuff: screens, drags, curls, etc. and he was by far at his best when playing out of the slot. In Buffalo, he was lined up out wide and asked to be the team's intermediate/deep threat, two areas where he has always struggled. The fact that he struggled as a result isn't really a surprise.

 

Personally, I think he was extremely overrated in the draft last year anyways, so my expectations have never been particularly high with him and I think they could have gotten a similar player far later in the draft, but Buffalo is stuck with him and should at least try to utilize him to his strengths. They didn't do that with his rookie season. In fact, Dennison used played to very few of his players' strengths last year.

You touch on some decent points.
 

like Watkins was not used correctly ( fan speaking )

 Dennison did not seem to put players in the best positions to succeed .

 Ne Coaching hopefully helps everyone on O.

  Including Castillo and Co.

[DC Tom]

On 5/7/2018 at 4:53 PM, BillsfaninSB said:

New to this forum.  I’m a lonely Bills fan in Santa Barbara. 

 

Im curious about everyone’s opinion of Zay Jones for the upcoming season.  I know he has nowhere to go but up, but will he blossom this year and make a major contribution?  I think a solid performance by him could go a long way to getting this offense to the middle of the pack. 

 

New QB - whoever it is, new OC, new WR coach, God only knows how much turnover at the position.  There's a distinct lack of stability and consistency in the environment that would mitigate against him having a better sophomore year.

 

But on the other hand...doesn't really have anywhere to go but up.  Given the same opportunities as his rookie year, he'll likely do better simply due to statistical regression.

[3rdand12]

13 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

People love to give up on young players early nowadays.

They forget that we have him for about 2 mil a year for 3 more seasons (including this upcoming one)

Might as well let it play out.

This year is probably wash because of the QB change, but would still expect some return to his sure handed college ways

he is still on the Team right ? he is on a rookie deal.. of course he played well below his College days. waay below. what happened ? Drugs. drinking ?
something happened.

 did not look to me like rookie curve. looked like he was all over the place with routes hand feet  cut breaks  and getting separation etc.
Why would your EXPECT him to return to his College norms ?

 

But i do hope he finds his way and becomes all he can be for the Bills.

 I will cheer for him. I just don't feel it sorry folks.

3 minutes ago, DC Tom said:

 

New QB - whoever it is, new OC, new WR coach, God only knows how much turnover at the position.  There's a distinct lack of stability and consistency in the environment that would mitigate against him having a better sophomore year.

 

But on the other hand...doesn't really have anywhere to go but up.  Given the same opportunities as his rookie year, he'll likely do better simply due to statistical regression.

analytics can isolate trends. Measure change.

 Predict?

maybe.

 

betting horses

just because a Horse finishes last 100 times does not mean it is due for improvement. But math says chances are high the horse will finish next to last or better over time.

or go to pasture

 

;  )

[DC Tom]

14 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

 

analytics can isolate trends. Measure change.

 Predict?

maybe.

 

 

As part of my current job, I get analytics reports every day on software development and deployment.  In the past month, there have been exactly ZERO of these reports that I haven't found significant statistical flaws in, deconstructed, and proven wrong.

 

The only trend analytics isolates is the tendency for people to to be complete idiots about analytics.

[3rdand12]

11 minutes ago, DC Tom said:

 

As part of my current job, I get analytics reports every day on software development and deployment.  In the past month, there have been exactly ZERO of these reports that I haven't found significant statistical flaws in, deconstructed, and proven wrong.

 

The only trend analytics isolates is the tendency for people to to be complete idiots about analytics.

so analytics Do serve a  higher purpose !

 I just knew Russ Brandon was onto something when announcing a " robust analytical strategy coming " some years ago.

unfortunate for Brandon the Answer all along was Russ Brandon.

Analytics derived and projected his demise.
 Funny thing about data is.. it takes  a certain skill set to make best use of it. and not cookie cutter formulae.

Lets hope Jones is an anomaly and bucks the trend. ! 
 

 Thanks DC Tom.

 

The wheat and the chaff.  

[Green Lightning]

6 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

 

Still remember my first training camp watching Moulds play.  I was against the fence and he caught a few in front of me.   He looked ten feet tall out there and was in such good shape.   Ripping the ball away from guys, one handers, short routes, go routes.   What a player.

 

The Bledsoe Peerless Moulds big year was a fun offense to watch for sure.

I know I think that was the year that by November each had 70-plus catches 8 touchdowns a piece and 14 yards a reception. It was outrageous! 

[Rebel101]

One thing Zay Jones knows how to do is catch a football so he definetly hasn't forgot how to do that he just has to get out of his own head and he will be fine

[DCOrange]

13 hours ago, artmalibu said:

 

 

According to your source Zays drop rate was 9.5%  https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/zay-jones/

 

I watched all the games and must be blind because I cant remember seeing him drop 7 balls that I figured were catchable.  I surly wouldnt count the pass at the end of the Panthers game a drop tho.  

 

I’ll go back and check my numbers but I believe the drop rate that they calculate is based on total targets (including the uncatchable throws) whereas I only used the catchable. But I think they’ve also tweaked their numbers since I put it all together awhile back because it looks like his drop percentage is roughly 15% instead of 15.8% now.

 

Edit: Yeah, they added 3 more catchable targets to Zay's total since I gathered his numbers. His drop rate is 14.9% now.

Edited May 9, 2018 by DCOrange

[DCOrange]

12 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:

You touch on some decent points.
 

like Watkins was not used correctly ( fan speaking )

 Dennison did not seem to put players in the best positions to succeed .

 Ne Coaching hopefully helps everyone on O.

  Including Castillo and Co.

 

The way Buffalo used Sammy, especially after what they traded for him, will forever piss me off.

[Ol Dirty B]

On 5/7/2018 at 7:58 PM, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Exactly how many did he drop that hit him in the hands?  Yes he did drop some thrown right at him, but TT did nothing to help him or any WR by often throwing passes that are hard to catch and just not throwing much to WR in general.  Lets put it this way playing with TT didn't help him any.

 

 

 

Moulds 32 receptions for 342 0 TD

Jones 27receptions for 316 2 TD

 

Not much different between the two

 

Except for what? Moulds rookie year was in like 97 or 96. It's such an awful comparison. They're not the same style of receiver either. 

 

Anyone who wants to compare Moulds first two years to Zays is clueless. They're probably the same people who compared EJs first season to Unitas first starts. The game has changed, stop it with this stupidity.

[BuffaloHokie13]

On 5/7/2018 at 7:58 PM, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Moulds 32 receptions for 342 0 TD

Jones 27receptions for 316 2 TD

 

Not much different between the two

You skipped a very important part of the equation.

Moulds was targeted 37 times that year.

Jones was targeted 74 times.

Edited May 9, 2018 by BuffaloHokie13

[SWATeam]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

You skipped a very important part of the equation.

Moulds was targeted 37 times that year.

Jones was targeted 74 times.

I'd say 37 targets from Kelly is about equivalent to 74 from Tyrod.

[HiddenInLight]

1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

You skipped a very important part of the equation.

Moulds was targeted 37 times that year.

Jones was targeted 74 times.

 

I do admit that at a certain point last season I had started to curse at Tyrod for even targeting Jones on important downs.

[artmalibu]

12 hours ago, DCOrange said:

I’ll go back and check my numbers but I believe the drop rate that they calculate is based on total targets (including the uncatchable throws) whereas I only used the catchable. But I think they’ve also tweaked their numbers since I put it all together awhile back because it looks like his drop percentage is roughly 15% instead of 15.8% now.

 

Edit: Yeah, they added 3 more catchable targets to Zay's total since I gathered his numbers. His drop rate is 14.9% now.

 

Look in the drops stat and it is 9.5%.  https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/zay-jones/    

 

I would love to see the video of the 7 drops.  If it would be a highlight reel catch situation I wouldnt call it a drop.  With all the hate on this guy Im surprised that no one has made a Zay  drops video other than the dropping of his pants..