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Peter King MMQB: 4/9/18.


PIZ

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From a team studying the drafts QBs:

 

"If people see Carson Wentz when they look at Josh Allen, because they’re both big guys, they are making a massive mistake. Wentz was so ready mentally for the pro game. Allen needs a lot of work there. If you pick Josh, you are taking a raw, talented kid and banking the future on your coaches being able to take that raw talent and turn him into a great player. It’s a gamble for sure.”

 

From Gil Brandt:

"Josh Rosen and the questions        surrounding his desire: “I have zero questions about Josh Rosen. I have no problems with him at all.”

 

• Biggest surprise in the top 10:“[Notre Dame] tackle Mike McGlinchey. He’ll go in the top 10.”

 

• Player who will go higher than everyone thinks: “Will Hernandez, guard, UTEP. Reminds me of Mike Iupati—both drafted higher than anyone thought.”

 

• Draft invitee who fascinates Brandt:“Leighton Vander Esch, the Boise State linebacker. He’ll be the first man ever invited to the draft who played eight-man football in high school. He’s from Salmon River High School in Riggins, Idaho. A true rising star.”

 

More from Gil Brandt:

 

"You want to be the surest that you won’t be laughed at five years down the line with one of these quarterbacks? Pick Rosen. He’s a player. Lamar Jackson, immense talent, immense upside. Baker Mayfield is a guy like Drew Brees. He’s got velocity, good accuracy. We all undervalued Drew. But what you don’t know about anyone is which quarterbacks are gonna work like Drew Brees. Drew’s gonna work his ass off".

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38 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

I could be wrong because I didn't follow that draft very closely, but didn't a lot of people think that Wentz was going to take time to develop? 

Not defending Allen, just wondering if I am remembering correctly? 

That’s what I remember hearing as well. And that neither he nor Goff really deserved to be in the top 3-5 Picks... I think a lot of what’s helped these young QB’s is implementing more RPO and Spread into their offenses. 

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Just because of all the wild speculation I plan to keep tabs on all these QBs careers. I myself don't follow college ball and I usually don't read into the draft, but since we have ammo, I kept reading the speculation.

 

Darnold and Rosen seem to be favorites of this draft. I'm curious to see if they live up to the hype given to them. If not then mostly everybody was wrong on them. Except a few on here with injury concern on Rosen. Although Darnold to the Browns might not be his fault. So if he goes to Cleveland I might have to wait until no other team picks him up before I consider him busted out. 

 

Baker Mayfield is next up. I can see a split of opinion. I think more people like him then not so if he is not good then still a decent amount of people had it wrong and a decent amount had it right. 

 

Allen just isn't getting any hype or love around these parts. I can't consider him a top safe pick with the amount of negative people feel about him. I would say the Majority don't like him and actually use stats to back it up. So if he turns out amazing almost nobody gets to credit themselves for being right. 

 

Then you get guys like Rudolph and Jackson. These guys careers interest me the most because they are both underdogs in this draft. I've seen a few very strong supporters of both and if you few are correct feel free to remind everyone because the underdog is harder to get correct if you ask me. Nobody is expecting elite careers for these guys. 

 

Those are the QBs I will keep track of because they are the names I hear the most. Nobody is really talking about any QBs much beyond the 6.

 

What I am saying is that it will be interesting who got the easy picks wrong and the harder picks right. It was hard sometimes to read through all the speculation but I think I got an idea of how these QBs are viewed by fans. 

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19 minutes ago, Lfod said:

Just because of all the wild speculation I plan to keep tabs on all these QBs careers. I myself don't follow college ball and I usually don't read into the draft, but since we have ammo, I kept reading the speculation.

 

Darnold and Rosen seem to be favorites of this draft. I'm curious to see if they live up to the hype given to them. If not then mostly everybody was wrong on them. Except a few on here with injury concern on Rosen. Although Darnold to the Browns might not be his fault. So if he goes to Cleveland I might have to wait until no other team picks him up before I consider him busted out. 

 

Baker Mayfield is next up. I can see a split of opinion. I think more people like him then not so if he is not good then still a decent amount of people had it wrong and a decent amount had it right. 

 

Allen just isn't getting any hype or love around these parts. I can't consider him a top safe pick with the amount of negative people feel about him. I would say the Majority don't like him and actually use stats to back it up. So if he turns out amazing almost nobody gets to credit themselves for being right. 

 

Then you get guys like Rudolph and Jackson. These guys careers interest me the most because they are both underdogs in this draft. I've seen a few very strong supporters of both and if you few are correct feel free to remind everyone because the underdog is harder to get correct if you ask me. Nobody is expecting elite careers for these guys. 

 

Those are the QBs I will keep track of because they are the names I hear the most. Nobody is really talking about any QBs much beyond the 6.

 

What I am saying is that it will be interesting who got the easy picks wrong and the harder picks right. It was hard sometimes to read through all the speculation but I think I got an idea of how these QBs are viewed by fans. 

Do you have opinions on any of this draft class quarterbacks.    I would appreciate hearing your opinion so we can get a perspective in a couple of years.

 

I favor Rosen, Mayfield,  Darnold, Jackson, and Roudolph in that order.  If we must select from the second tier of quarterbacks, I would favor Falk and Lauletta.  

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36 minutes ago, longtimebillsfan said:

Do you have opinions on any of this draft class quarterbacks.    I would appreciate hearing your opinion so we can get a perspective in a couple of years.

 

I favor Rosen, Mayfield,  Darnold, Jackson, and Roudolph in that order.  If we must select from the second tier of quarterbacks, I would favor Falk and Lauletta.  

Well my opinion wouldn't be a very educated one. I would just be repeating what I read and having feelings about it. I really should just go watch the games they played. 

 

That is kinda why I want to keep track of these guys after all the speculation. The before/after picture is what I'm interested in now because I think I burned myself out on reading about the prospects. I want to know how much the picture changes after these guys play games. 

 

Just because you asked I'll say. Darnold then Rosen or Mayfield. I'm equal about those two. I hear good and bad about both. Rosen (injury) and Mayfield (character). The same for Rudolph and Jackson. They equal to to me in the sense I see good in both of them but the overall consensus is you wait till they fall. I think Jackson being very athletic will be his benefit over Rudolph some. I think Rudolph ends up on a better team then Jackson. 

 

Allen with the amount of concern about his stats. I'd have to agree with other people. I'd rather Buffalo not be the ones to test those waters. 

 

I wish more was being said about the guys after that but it's kind of quiet. The QB the Browns pick I won't call a bust unless like Johnny Manziel they never play for another team. 

 

If I'm the Giants I want Rosen because he just looks and talks like Eli. I don't know if that is just me. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, whatdrought said:

I could be wrong because I didn't follow that draft very closely, but didn't a lot of people think that Wentz was going to take time to develop? 

Not defending Allen, just wondering if I am remembering correctly? 

 

I think you're pretty spot on about that. 

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4 hours ago, whatdrought said:

I could be wrong because I didn't follow that draft very closely, but didn't a lot of people think that Wentz was going to take time to develop? 

Not defending Allen, just wondering if I am remembering correctly? 

 

Yes, you are correct. And like Allen, he came from a lower level of college play, so that too raised many questions.

 

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QBs these days seem to be being drafted almost purely on potential, and physical attributes. Allen simply has huge upside, and it probably helps that he should be a pretty intelligent guy, according to his wonderlic score.

I'm a bit old school with all of this, in that if a guy cannot come in and start immediately, then realistically, he shouldn't be a first round pick. That simply doesn't appear to be part of a standard for taking QBs however.

Bearing in mind that I'm certainly no expert, of the top 6 guys, the only ones who could come in and start immediately, in the right circumstances, are Rosen and Mayfield, with Jackson, oddly enough, an outlier. This is just what I have gleaned from reading stuff about them, and some limited film watching. Jackson makes the list, only due to his running ability, and the fact that the NFL can tailor an offense to make use of that immediately.

Those 'top six' guys, all need work. From the top 4, based off of 'NFL readiness', you would probably put them in an order that goes Rosen, Mayfield, Darnold, Allen. And then flip it when it comes to 'NFL Upside'. Little wonder there's so much debate about it all.

Tbh, I don't think that Brandt sheds any more light on the QBs than anyone else. He does say that he has no problems with Rosen as regards supposed 'attitude', at all. His final comment really is about finding a guy who is going to work as hard as Brees, after making the Mayfield/Brees comparison, but is in relation to all of the QBs.

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5 hours ago, whatdrought said:

I could be wrong because I didn't follow that draft very closely, but didn't a lot of people think that Wentz was going to take time to develop? 

Not defending Allen, just wondering if I am remembering correctly? 

 

They said he was still in the development stage because of competition.  Big hands.  Big guy.  Not a huge arm.  Very smart.  Interviewed great.  Compared to Roethlisberger by some.  Bortles by others.  One thing he had in college, if I remember correctly, was that he was accurate.

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7 hours ago, whatdrought said:

I could be wrong because I didn't follow that draft very closely, but didn't a lot of people think that Wentz was going to take time to develop? 

Not defending Allen, just wondering if I am remembering correctly? 

 

 

I dont think you're wrong, WD.

 

so weird, I know I am not the only who watched everything leading up to the draft and thought that Wentz was better, while pro-progs had Geoff almost universally first.

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4 hours ago, Lfod said:

Well my opinion wouldn't be a very educated one. I would just be repeating what I read and having feelings about it. I really should just go watch the games they played. 

 

That is kinda why I want to keep track of these guys after all the speculation. The before/after picture is what I'm interested in now because I think I burned myself out on reading about the prospects. I want to know how much the picture changes after these guys play games. 

 

Just because you asked I'll say. Darnold then Rosen or Mayfield. I'm equal about those two. I hear good and bad about both. Rosen (injury) and Mayfield (character). The same for Rudolph and Jackson. They equal to to me in the sense I see good in both of them but the overall consensus is you wait till they fall. I think Jackson being very athletic will be his benefit over Rudolph some. I think Rudolph ends up on a better team then Jackson. 

 

Allen with the amount of concern about his stats. I'd have to agree with other people. I'd rather Buffalo not be the ones to test those waters. 

 

I wish more was being said about the guys after that but it's kind of quiet. The QB the Browns pick I won't call a bust unless like Johnny Manziel they never play for another team. 

 

If I'm the Giants I want Rosen because he just looks and talks like Eli. I don't know if that is just me. 

 

 

No Rosen looks like a lab breed a person and a ferret.

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7 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

Dan Orlovsky had a scathing review of Josh Allen.


From Orlovsky ... 
 
You think Dick LeBeau Bill Belichek is easier to do it against? When he’s got Star Wars on the back end going on?


Goes right to my point of thinking a QB will make massive leaps forward in the pros. It's incredibly difficult to change the muscle memory once you get to the pros. If you don't see improvement in college - and I mean, legitimate growth - thinking it is going to come under the stress of the pro game you're really bucking huge headwinds.
 

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Trade up for Rosen at 2. Surest thing in a while and fits any type of offense. Big time prospect for a very long time. Smart and can make all the throws. Use that draft capital to bring that arm talent to Buffalo :) 

 

4 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

can they hold him indefinitely ?  

Don't let him leave the building!!!

Edited by MrEpsYtown
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Please let us draft one of Josh Rosen or Baker Mayfield. Lamar Jackson would make a nice consolation prize. 

 

If we pick Allen, and trade up to get him, I'm going to need to live in a padded room for a couple weeks, lol. 

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9 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

 

I like him and want us to draft him, but shoulder history also is concerning. 

 

oh yeah, forgot about that also.  I envision some sort of Andrew Luck scenario w/ him.  On the other hand, I envision a 15 year+ franchise QB.  

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10 hours ago, whatdrought said:

I could be wrong because I didn't follow that draft very closely, but didn't a lot of people think that Wentz was going to take time to develop? 

Not defending Allen, just wondering if I am remembering correctly? 

 

I remember running up to the draft that year, Philly pundits were a bit skeptical. The take was that he had all of the raw tools, but he had played in Division II. How would he hold up against superior competition?

 

Of course, he did have a bit of a rocky 2016. But he clearly made a leap forward in 2017.

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4 minutes ago, the skycap said:

Stay at 12 and get Jackson. Rosen and Mayfield will be gone. Brandt is saying, basically, they're can't miss prospects. Build team with draft picks

 

I am in agreement, and surely will get flamed for it. There is a poster in this thread who still posits his value as that of "a running QB". Dude passed for 3,543 yards in 2016 and 3,660 in 2017 - while leading the entire country in rate of dropped passes. Catch half those dropped balls and the completion % narrative changes. He did all this while running the E/P offense. The comparisons to Tyrod and Mike Vick really need to stop.

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21 minutes ago, the skycap said:

Stay at 12 and get Jackson. Rosen and Mayfield will be gone. Brandt is saying, basically, they're can't miss prospects. Build team with draft picks

 

Honestly, I think EVERYONE on here would admit, IF they really believe in McBeane, that if they zeroed in on Lamar Jackson as THE GUY they want, and take him at #12, that it is really exciting (long sentence I know).  To get THEIR QB at #12, and keep ALL of those draft picks, would be amazing.  Then we actually get the QB they chose, and get to pick from all those guys they brought in for a visit or private workout.  If Lamar Jackson has everything they are looking for, then I'm on board.  The problem is, we have no idea if they want Lamar Jackson, Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph, or Kyle Lauletta.

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1 minute ago, PIZ said:

 

Honestly, I think EVERYONE on here would admit, IF they really believe in McBeane, that if they zeroed in on Lamar Jackson as THE GUY they want, and take him at #12, that it is really exciting (long sentence I know).  To get THEIR QB at #12, and keep ALL of those draft picks, would be amazing.  Then we actually get the QB they chose, and get to pick from all those guys they brought in for a visit or private workout.  If Lamar Jackson has everything they are looking for, then I'm on board.  The problem is, we have no idea if they want Lamar Jackson, Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph, or Kyle Lauletta.

 

Good post ......If I didn't have the belief in McBeane that I do, I would not be on board with Jackson at 12. They have earned that belief with a surgical, methodical, & laser-focused vision & execution the likes of which we have not seen at OBD in a long, long time

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Do we need to move up from #22 before making a deal?

 

Brandt says the draft is 13-17 guys deep.  We've seen several analysts land around 21 players.  I wonder if our offer wouldn't be much stronger if we worried less about moving from 12 to ~7 and more about moving up from 22, even up to that level.

 

There's been reports both the 49ers and Raiders are open to deal, if we can move from #22 with pick 56 and a 2019 3rd (value that falls between pick 9 and 10) would an offer of #10 / #12 / #56 / #65 be more enticing and easier to build than moving up from 12 to ~7?

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16 minutes ago, BuffaninATL said:

 

I am in agreement, and surely will get flamed for it. There is a poster in this thread who still posits his value as that of "a running QB". Dude passed for 3,543 yards in 2016 and 3,660 in 2017 - while leading the entire country in rate of dropped passes. Catch half those dropped balls and the completion % narrative changes. He did all this while running the E/P offense. The comparisons to Tyrod and Mike Vick really need to stop.

I can't get a read on ths FO.  Some folks think the want a big, pocket passer.  That's not Jackson.  It's not Mayfield, either.  I don't see how the Mike Vick comparison is patently false.  Good Mike Vick is pretty darn good, btw.  I like in varying degrees all of the top five with some reservation on all of them.  I'm not keen on Rudolph, so if they miss on the top four, I'd rather take a chance on Jackson.  

1 minute ago, Chuck Wagon said:

Do we need to move up from #22 before making a deal?

 

Brandt says the draft is 13-17 guys deep.  We've seen several analysts land around 21 players.  I wonder if our offer wouldn't be much stronger if we worried less about moving from 12 to ~7 and more about moving up from 22, even up to that level.

 

There's been reports both the 49ers and Raiders are open to deal, if we can move from #22 with pick 56 and a 2019 3rd (value that falls between pick 9 and 10) would an offer of #10 / #12 / #56 / #65 be more enticing and easier to build than moving up from 12 to ~7?

That's a very interesting speculation.  I'm not an expert, but I personally like the four top qbs, then the top non-qbs are Chubb, Barkley, Nelson, Edmunds, Smith, Fitzpatrick, and Ward, imo.  10 and 12 might get you two of those fellas.  I think 2 might be available for 10 and 12, but I dunno really.

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1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

I can't get a read on ths FO.  Some folks think the want a big, pocket passer.  That's not Jackson.  It's not Mayfield, either.  I don't see how the Mike Vick comparison is patently false.  Good Mike Vick is pretty darn good, btw.  I like in varying degrees all of the top five with some reservation on all of them.  I'm not keen on Rudolph, so if they miss on the top four, I'd rather take a chance on Jackson.  

 

I hear you to a certain degree. I just think there is a confirmation bias in some circles on this board that if a QB is black and can run, he's not a prototypical QB. If you watch video of Jackson, he stands tall in the pocket, goes through his reads head up, and morphed into scrambling/breaking the pocket only when the play was totally breaking down around him.

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I think the situation remains the same.  On one hand we can value Rosen (or Darnold, or Bell, or likely Mayfield) so much that we are willing to trade our 2 1st rounders this year (AND likely the market dictates a high round choice next year) to move up to pick #2 this year.

 

On the other hand, we might pass on taking one of the top 3 or 4 QBs, but by keeping our 3 rounds with 2 picks per round we use these picks to reinforce a team which has one of the oldest rosters in the NFL, that has some clear holes like the loss of their starting center, 2 starting LBs, and a great RB in Shady but no real plan B if this +30 great player is hurt.

 

From my several decades of enjoying the NFL it not only is such a clear case that it makes far more football sense to spend the great draft resource Beane and the braintrust have assembled to concentrate on rebuilding the TEAM, by taking folks like Roquan Smith, Edmunds, Ragnow, or whoever they have as BPA with their 2 firsts.  They likely will have the ability to get a QB prospect in the 2nd round like a Rudolph or Jackson (depending on who they judge as best).

 

Even better, I would love to see the TEAM trade down taking advantage of the market the Jets have said by trading 3 seconds to move up.  If we were able to trade 1 of our 1sts for 2- 2nds it would mean THE PROCESS calls for creating tremendous competition between as many as 7 early drafted players this year, having a QB competition between Peterman, McCarron, and a 2nd round pick this year, and following the model Pitts used to win an SB and compete every year by drafting their FRANCHISE QB, Big Ben after first building their TEAM.

 

To me it makes far better football sense to trade down if you can or at least stand pat with 6 choices in the first three rounds!

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Just now, KingRex said:

I think the situation remains the same.  On one hand we can value Rosen (or Darnold, or Bell, or likely Mayfield) so much that we are willing to trade our 2 1st rounders this year (AND likely the market dictates a high round choice next year) to move up to pick #2 this year.

 

On the other hand, we might pass on taking one of the top 3 or 4 QBs, but by keeping our 3 rounds with 2 picks per round we use these picks to reinforce a team which has one of the oldest rosters in the NFL, that has some clear holes like the loss of their starting center, 2 starting LBs, and a great RB in Shady but no real plan B if this +30 great player is hurt.

 

From my several decades of enjoying the NFL it not only is such a clear case that it makes far more football sense to spend the great draft resource Beane and the braintrust have assembled to concentrate on rebuilding the TEAM, by taking folks like Roquan Smith, Edmunds, Ragnow, or whoever they have as BPA with their 2 firsts.  They likely will have the ability to get a QB prospect in the 2nd round like a Rudolph or Jackson (depending on who they judge as best).

 

Even better, I would love to see the TEAM trade down taking advantage of the market the Jets have said by trading 3 seconds to move up.  If we were able to trade 1 of our 1sts for 2- 2nds it would mean THE PROCESS calls for creating tremendous competition between as many as 7 early drafted players this year, having a QB competition between Peterman, McCarron, and a 2nd round pick this year, and following the model Pitts used to win an SB and compete every year by drafting their FRANCHISE QB, Big Ben after first building their TEAM.

 

To me it makes far better football sense to trade down if you can or at least stand pat with 6 choices in the first three rounds!

 

very doubtful to me that Rudolph or Jackson will last until the 2nd, even though some may not have 1st rd grades on them. 

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Just now, BuffaninATL said:

 

I hear you to a certain degree. I just think there is a confirmation bias in some circles on this board that if a QB is black and can run, he's not a prototypical QB. If you watch video of Jackson, he stands tall in the pocket, goes through his reads head up, and morphed into scrambling/breaking the pocket only when the play was totally breaking down around him.

I agree with you on this.  My main concern with Jackson is that he seems slight to me and I fear he will be hurt like RG3, though perhaps he is more durable and I am being irrational on that point.  Even if it is not dispositive, I'd prefer his Wunderlic was higher than 13.

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1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

I agree with you on this.  My main concern with Jackson is that he seems slight to me and I fear he will be hurt like RG3, though perhaps he is more durable and I am being irrational on that point.  Even if it is not dispositive, I'd prefer his Wunderlic was higher than 13.

 

The last I saw him at was 6'3" and 211 lbs. I think with the proper nutrition & training he can easily get up to 220. Agreed on the Wonderlic, not a deal-breaker for me though. 

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22 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

Do we need to move up from #22 before making a deal?

 

Brandt says the draft is 13-17 guys deep.  We've seen several analysts land around 21 players.  I wonder if our offer wouldn't be much stronger if we worried less about moving from 12 to ~7 and more about moving up from 22, even up to that level.

 

There's been reports both the 49ers and Raiders are open to deal, if we can move from #22 with pick 56 and a 2019 3rd (value that falls between pick 9 and 10) would an offer of #10 / #12 / #56 / #65 be more enticing and easier to build than moving up from 12 to ~7?

 

Assuming that we have been in serious discussions with the Giants about acquiring pick #2, I'd say it's pretty likely that the two teams have exchanged idea's like this already and have let each other know what is desired...

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11 hours ago, whatdrought said:

I could be wrong because I didn't follow that draft very closely, but didn't a lot of people think that Wentz was going to take time to develop? 

Not defending Allen, just wondering if I am remembering correctly? 

 

I think that was more because he was at a small school, NOT because of concerns about completion percentage and accuracy, footwork, learning when to take heat off of passes so on and so forth.  Nobody had any concerns that would suggest Wentz was a developmental prospect/project.  His biggest concerns was the small school and could he compete against top level competition.

11 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

A popular defense of Josh Allen's low completion % is that he didn't throw screen passes. However, Allen threw a higher rate of passes 0-5 yards from the line of scrimmage (30%) than Darnold, Rosen & Mayfield

 

Another Josh Allen myth busted lol

 

Another one is that he reads the entire field because he's in a pro-style offense.  He may have been required to, but that doesn't mean he always did it.  If you watch the Boise State game on the INT he threw to the TE down the seam, he never looked to his left.  He hiked, looking right the entire time, pump faked and threw it down the seam to the TE, who looked open.  But if Allen had of looked to his left he would have seen the FS playing over the top the entire time.  No eye manipulation with Allen.  The FS came in an picked it off with ease.  Plus the pass had too much on it.

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