Moving up to #2 = No Playoffs for the next three years

[BBills88]

54 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Name them.

Philip Rivers - Vincent Jackson , Malcom Floyd

Drew Brees -  Robert Meachem 

Peyton Manning - Austin Collie

Just to name of few

[Manther]

2 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

Moving up is sexy, it's fun, it's what's for dinner these days. But moving up will set the team's growth back three, maybe five years. Possibly longer. This team has so many holes, that to throw away all these picks on a QB who might be good is insanity. 

 

If we can somehow move up and still have 1 2nd and 1 3rd...I'd be willing to listen. But only for Rosen or Mayfield. Trading up for any of the other QBs is insanity. Especially since Jackson has a very good chance of being there at 12. Hell, he has a good chance of being there at 22.

 

I'd rather pick an elite player at 12 - Roquan Smith, Derwin James, Vita Vea....etc. Use the rest of the picks on holes like WR, OL, DL, LB....

 

Throwing away this draft along with a first next next year? No thanks. 

IMO this statement is poppycock.

 

One doesn’t determine the other.

Edited April 3, 2018 by Manther

[{::'KayCeeS::}]

2 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

Moving up is sexy, it's fun, it's what's for dinner these days. But moving up will set the team's growth back three, maybe five years. Possibly longer. This team has so many holes, that to throw away all these picks on a QB who might be good is insanity. 

 

If we can somehow move up and still have 1 2nd and 1 3rd...I'd be willing to listen. But only for Rosen or Mayfield. Trading up for any of the other QBs is insanity. Especially since Jackson has a very good chance of being there at 12. Hell, he has a good chance of being there at 22.

 

I'd rather pick an elite player at 12 - Roquan Smith, Derwin James, Vita Vea....etc. Use the rest of the picks on holes like WR, OL, DL, LB....

 

Throwing away this draft along with a first next next year? No thanks. 

 

I'm of the opinion McBeane wants Rosen.  If they can't reasonably move up to get him, they will happily stand pat and fill all those holes you rightly mention.

 

I can't see any other strategy, frankly.  I think it's pretty obvious, imho.

 

 

[mjt328]

2 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

Moving up is sexy, it's fun, it's what's for dinner these days. But moving up will set the team's growth back three, maybe five years. Possibly longer. This team has so many holes, that to throw away all these picks on a QB who might be good is insanity. 

 

If we can somehow move up and still have 1 2nd and 1 3rd...I'd be willing to listen. But only for Rosen or Mayfield. Trading up for any of the other QBs is insanity. Especially since Jackson has a very good chance of being there at 12. Hell, he has a good chance of being there at 22.

 

I'd rather pick an elite player at 12 - Roquan Smith, Derwin James, Vita Vea....etc. Use the rest of the picks on holes like WR, OL, DL, LB....

 

Throwing away this draft along with a first next next year? No thanks. 

 

Three years.  Seems like an exaggeration.  But just for fun, let's go with it.

 

Let's assume we mortgage two full years worth of picks.  We give up #12 and #22 this year, along with our 2019 1st Rounder and a few 2nds/3rds for good measure.  We literally can't draft any top prospects until 2020.  And this sets the franchise back a full 3 years with NO playoffs.

 

If that gives us a CHANCE to get the franchise QB we are looking for, I will take that deal without question.  Because once those 3 years of sacrifice are over, we are setup with a QB who can keep us in championship contention for the next 10-12 years.  Maybe even a Super Bowl.

 

 

 

Now consider the alternative.  We stay put at #12 and all the strong QB prospects are gone.  So we load up on the D-Line, Linebackers, Wide Receivers, etc.  Don't forget we still need to use a Day 2 pick on a QB, like Mason Rudolph or Luke Faulk, who have a much higher chance of becoming nothing in the NFL.

 

Our roster is awesome for the next three years, but we can't get farther than the Wild Card/Division Round, because of mediocre QB play.  Then in 2022, all of our fantastic draft picks are Free Agents.  We only have so much cap space, so we can only re-sign half of those guys. 

 

.... And we are back to the exact same place as April 2018. 

 

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, CountDorkula said:

We have all the picks though..... That obviously means that all stars are going to come out of the wood work.

 

 AJ McCarron will slow the offense to a crawl like he did in Cincinnati when he took over and it all will matter not. 

better a crawl than a sacrifice imo 

 

[Pete]

2 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

Moving up is sexy, it's fun, it's what's for dinner these days. But moving up will set the team's growth back three, maybe five years. Possibly longer. This team has so many holes, that to throw away all these picks on a QB who might be good is insanity. 

 

If we can somehow move up and still have 1 2nd and 1 3rd...I'd be willing to listen. But only for Rosen or Mayfield. Trading up for any of the other QBs is insanity. Especially since Jackson has a very good chance of being there at 12. Hell, he has a good chance of being there at 22.

 

I'd rather pick an elite player at 12 - Roquan Smith, Derwin James, Vita Vea....etc. Use the rest of the picks on holes like WR, OL, DL, LB....

 

Throwing away this draft along with a first next next year? No thanks. 

I agree 100%.  Who will play MLB?  Is pass rush fixed?  Where is the depth at CB?  Are we starting Groy, Vlad, and Mills?  We need 2 more WRs....I would be very thrifty with our picks.  

I agree a big trade up sets us back two years at least.  So I wouldn't look forward to watching our shiny new QB running for his life because of inadequate line and WRs to throw too.  Nor would I watch teams run at will against us such as Chargers.Saints, and Jets

[CountDorkula]

1 minute ago, Pete said:

I agree 100%.  Who will play MLB?  Is pass rush fixed?  Where is the depth at CB?  Are we starting Groy, Vlad, and Mills?  We need 2 more WRs....I would be very thrifty with our picks.  

I agree a big trade up sets us back two years at least.  So I wouldn't look forward to watching our shiny new QB running for his life because of inadequate line and WRs to throw too.  Nor would I watch teams run at will against us such as Chargers.Saints, and Jets

Is QB not a hole? Is it not the biggest hole on the team?

[Batman1876]

3 minutes ago, Pete said:

I agree 100%.  Who will play MLB?  Is pass rush fixed?  Where is the depth at CB?  Are we starting Groy, Vlad, and Mills?  We need 2 more WRs....I would be very thrifty with our picks.  

I agree a big trade up sets us back two years at least.  So I wouldn't look forward to watching our shiny new QB running for his life because of inadequate line and WRs to throw too.  Nor would I watch teams run at will against us such as Chargers.Saints, and Jets

So keep doing what we’ve been doing for 20 years, fill holes, lose players to free agency, fill holes, repeat. 

[Pete]

7 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

Is QB not a hole? Is it not the biggest hole on the team?

I put MLB up with QB as our two biggest needs.  Just because I do not wish to squander all our picks, that does not preclude us from drafting a QB.  We could take one at 12, or we can jump up to 7 or so and not pay such a steep price.  I want it all.  QB MLB WR C G CB OLB

[Stank_Nasty]

OP's title is a bit dramatic..... was anyone thinking playoffs after Gilmore and woods walked and they unloaded Watkins and darby?

 

 

[CountDorkula]

Just now, Pete said:

I put MLB up with QB as our two biggest needs.  Just because I do not wish to squander all our picks, that does not preclude us from drafting a QB.  We could take one at 12, or we can jump up to 7 or so and not pay such a steep price.  I want it all.  QB MLB WR C G CB OLB

If you give up 12,21,2nd,3rd,Next years first

 

You still have a 1 2 and 3 this year. I think you are being a tad over dramatic on the "All the picks part"

[Pete]

4 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

If you give up 12,21,2nd,3rd,Next years first

 

You still have a 1 2 and 3 this year. I think you are being a tad over dramatic on the "All the picks part"

That is a !@#$load of picks!  Right now I think the Bills are better the the Giants.  There is a chance the Giants trade Odell to Rams for 2 first round picks.  So if we trade all that to Gmen- they would have 5 first round picks and a 2nd and 3rd.  If that occurs, watch how much better the Giants become while our QB learns nuances of NFL

[Agent 91]

2 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

 

Just because it works one time out a hundred doesn't mean it's going to work again. 

I like Maj but Philly had 3 bona fide qb whisperers on staff. Reich Peterson and Defilippo. Top it off... they won with pseudo journeyman Nick Foles. Philly is, if nothing else, the exception to the rule. I would love to have had their situation but we dont. I dont want anyone in a trade up but Rosen. I would settle for Mayfield. Rosen will need a much better pass pro in front of him though

[CountDorkula]

9 minutes ago, Pete said:

That is a !@#$load of picks!  Right now I think the Bills are better the the Giants.  There is a chance the Giants trade Odell to Rams for 2 first round picks.  So if we trade all that to Gmen- they would have 5 first round picks and a 2nd and 3rd.  If that occurs, watch how much better the Giants become while our QB learns nuances of NFL

Looks at Cleveland, yeap, all those pick sure helped them. They picked all those star offense and defense players and ignored the QB position so much that they went 0-16 last year. 

[Domdab99]

52 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Three years.  Seems like an exaggeration.  But just for fun, let's go with it.

 

Let's assume we mortgage two full years worth of picks.  We give up #12 and #22 this year, along with our 2019 1st Rounder and a few 2nds/3rds for good measure.  We literally can't draft any top prospects until 2020.  And this sets the franchise back a full 3 years with NO playoffs.

 

If that gives us a CHANCE to get the franchise QB we are looking for, I will take that deal without question.  Because once those 3 years of sacrifice are over, we are setup with a QB who can keep us in championship contention for the next 10-12 years.  Maybe even a Super Bowl.

 

 

 

Now consider the alternative.  We stay put at #12 and all the strong QB prospects are gone.  So we load up on the D-Line, Linebackers, Wide Receivers, etc.  Don't forget we still need to use a Day 2 pick on a QB, like Mason Rudolph or Luke Faulk, who have a much higher chance of becoming nothing in the NFL.

 

Our roster is awesome for the next three years, but we can't get farther than the Wild Card/Division Round, because of mediocre QB play.  Then in 2022, all of our fantastic draft picks are Free Agents.  We only have so much cap space, so we can only re-sign half of those guys. 

 

.... And we are back to the exact same place as April 2018. 

 

 

 

 

Goid points. But how many years does it set us back if the QB you move up for us t anything special?

[Boca BIlls]

3 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

Moving up is sexy, it's fun, it's what's for dinner these days. But moving up will set the team's growth back three, maybe five years. Possibly longer. This team has so many holes, that to throw away all these picks on a QB who might be good is insanity. 

 

If we can somehow move up and still have 1 2nd and 1 3rd...I'd be willing to listen. But only for Rosen or Mayfield. Trading up for any of the other QBs is insanity. Especially since Jackson has a very good chance of being there at 12. Hell, he has a good chance of being there at 22.

 

I'd rather pick an elite player at 12 - Roquan Smith, Derwin James, Vita Vea....etc. Use the rest of the picks on holes like WR, OL, DL, LB....

 

Throwing away this draft along with a first next next year? No thanks. 

Wrong

[BobChalmers]

3 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

Moving up is sexy, it's fun, it's what's for dinner these days. But moving up will set the team's growth back three, maybe five years. Possibly longer. This team has so many holes, that to throw away all these picks on a QB who might be good is insanity. 

 

If we can somehow move up and still have 1 2nd and 1 3rd...I'd be willing to listen. But only for Rosen or Mayfield. Trading up for any of the other QBs is insanity. Especially since Jackson has a very good chance of being there at 12. Hell, he has a good chance of being there at 22.

 

I'd rather pick an elite player at 12 - Roquan Smith, Derwin James, Vita Vea....etc. Use the rest of the picks on holes like WR, OL, DL, LB....

 

Throwing away this draft along with a first next next year? No thanks. 

 

I'm sorry - how does the math work that trading one year's worth of picks sets a team back 3-5 years??  Especially if it nets you a franchise QB, but even if it doesn't.

 

Teams routinely go from basement to playoffs in the NFL, btw - and it only takes a year.  There's also free agency (the Bills will have roughly $100M available next year) and higher picks following a bad year, and...

 

 

 

You rightly scored double-digit "confused" reactions to this OP - congrats!

 

 

9 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

 

Goid points. But how many years does it set us back if the QB you move up for us t anything special?

 

ONE

Edited April 3, 2018 by BobChalmers

[Pete]

18 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

Looks at Cleveland, yeap, all those pick sure helped them. They picked all those star offense and defense players and ignored the QB position so much that they went 0-16 last year. 

don't use Cleveland's ineptness to demonstrate that we must overpay for a QB lottery ticket

[Batman1876]

4 minutes ago, Pete said:

don't use Cleveland's ineptness to demonstrate that we must overpay for a QB lottery ticket

Calling it a lottery ticket is a bit disingenuous. Taking s top rated prospect is the most likely way to get a good or elite QB. 

[reddogblitz]

3 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Rams say Hi 

 

Goff had one good year and his playoff record is the exactly the same as the guy we just ran out of town.  Get back to me in 3 years to see if he is still worth it. 

 

Was Robert Griffin worth it?

[transplantbillsfan]

Totally disagree. 

 

QB is everything.  Haven't we friggin figured that out, yet? 

 

We might be able to swing trading up to #2 for, say, both our 1sts and both our 2nds this year plus a 1st or 2nd next year.

 

Considering we'd still have 5 picks this year and a ton of Cap space next offseason, we would absolutely not be mortgaging our future, especially considering that what we "paid" to get some of the draft picks we would give away were assets McDermott and Beane didn't want, anyway (Tyrod, Sammy, & Darby) or never even had the opportunity to utilize at all due to injury (Glenn).

 

We're still in good shape if we trade up to #2 and the above is about all it takes.  If we only had to trade up a few spots or somehow managed to stay at #12 and still manage to get "our guy," I think we'll be in exceptional shape and will expect us to be Super Bowl contenders by 2019.

[bills in oregon]

3 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Did they say that about Philly???  

Philly D was and is rock solid!! so was the O-line the added a WR and  a RB. so ya that could do that with what that had already.

[RFL]

3 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Anyone notice what a real QB did for San Fran ONCE the trade for Jimmy G was made. 

 

Instant upgrade. 

 

But in Buffalo land it means no playoffs for 3 years 

Jimmy G.....2nd rounder pick #62

[PromoTheRobot]

This QB draft reminds me of buying real estate at the top of the market. You are going to pay through the nose because the market is overheated. 

[freddyjj]

I don't agree with OP on his panic.

 

So my guess is a move up to pick 7 costs OBD pick 12 in Rd 1 and a 2nd rounder (53).  Throw in a 4th round pick to pay a 10% premium

 

So now they draft at  7, 22, 56, 65 and 96.  Bills go from 6 to 5 picks in top 100 and still have late 5th and a 6th rd picks

 

7 picks is still more than last years draft btw.  Still likely they get future starters at QB, MLB, DT, WR and CB in this scenario

[Pete]

16 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

Calling it a lottery ticket is a bit disingenuous. Taking s top rated prospect is the most likely way to get a good or elite QB. 

So which QB will have the best career?  How many will have great careers?  Will you be happy if we trade all those picks and end up with Joe Flacco?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 minutes ago, Pete said:

So which QB will have the best career?  How many will have great careers?  Will you be happy if we trade all those picks and end up with Joe Flacco?

 

Which LB will b e an all pro? How about which RB?

 

Maybe which WR?

 

[smuvtalker]

4 hours ago, billsfan5121 said:

Why do some people think that picking a position player can’t produce a bust as well?  It’s like people are afraid of a qb because they might fail, but then talk about all of the picks in the first three rounds as if they are locks to be great.  Here’s a concept.  If our staff is good enough to nail 6 picks over 3 rounds, they are good enough to pick a qb.  

Holy smokes sir YOU have just won post of the week in my opinion.  Very, VERY good point you bring up and honestly one I haven't even thought about until you brought it up.

 

I still want us to move up and get Rosen or Mayfield, and know it's going to take more than alot of us will be happy with.  However, we could all be surprised...Beane got us a 3rd round pick for Tyrod, and I honestly would've been happy getting a 5th for him.  But I think with Rosen and Mayfield, like Maj said, we're talking instant upgrades.

Edited April 3, 2018 by smuvtalker

[freddyjj]

1 minute ago, Pete said:

So which QB will have the best career?  How many will have great careers?  Will you be happy if we trade all those picks and end up with Joe Flacco?

yes if it means winning a SB and getting one of these

 

[Pete]

Just now, joesixpack said:

 

Which LB will b e an all pro? How about which RB?

 

Maybe which WR?

 

Roquan and Sanquan.  Probably no WR's.  Maybe on return ability.  And I don't need to overpay for Roquan

[ddaryl]

 

 

Sign me up for a franchise QB.

 

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Pete said:

Roquan and Sanquan.  Probably no WR's.  Maybe on return ability.  And I don't need to overpay for Roquan

 

you don't KNOW that though, do you?

 

[Pete]

1 minute ago, freddyjj said:

yes if it means winning a SB and getting one of these

 

So we Trent Dilfer, Jim McMahon, Doug Williams, Nick Foles, Jeff Hostletter are ok to overpay for as well?  The Ravens D won that superbowl

[26CornerBlitz]

4 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

Moving up is sexy, it's fun, it's what's for dinner these days. But moving up will set the team's growth back three, maybe five years. Possibly longer. This team has so many holes, that to throw away all these picks on a QB who might be good is insanity. 

 

If we can somehow move up and still have 1 2nd and 1 3rd...I'd be willing to listen. But only for Rosen or Mayfield. Trading up for any of the other QBs is insanity. Especially since Jackson has a very good chance of being there at 12. Hell, he has a good chance of being there at 22.

 

I'd rather pick an elite player at 12 - Roquan Smith, Derwin James, Vita Vea....etc. Use the rest of the picks on holes like WR, OL, DL, LB....

 

Throwing away this draft along with a first next next year? No thanks. 

 

Does having all of those picks meant that the Bills will hit on each one?   Even if they do the team only gets so far without a consistently good to great QB.  Take the swing, it's long overdue. 

[Pete]

Just now, joesixpack said:

 

you don't KNOW that though, do you?

 

It is a well calculated, educated guess.  You pick the QB- and I pick Roquan.  Lets see who makes probowl

[Augie]

1 minute ago, joesixpack said:

 

you don't KNOW that though, do you?

 

 

Nobody KNOWS anything, we all just have opinions. Some people confuse that with fact. My sister-in-law does it all the time. Is this the pet peeves thread? 

[MAJBobby]

16 minutes ago, bills in oregon said:

Philly D was and is rock solid!! so was the O-line the added a WR and  a RB. so ya that could do that with what that had already.

 

So they Built around their trade up QB. 

 

Amazing people here against trading up say that is impossible 

[smuvtalker]

5 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

 

Which LB will b e an all pro? How about which RB?

 

Maybe which WR?

 

I'm gonna go with Edmunds, Barkley (Penny maybe, if we get him), and Chark.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, Augie said:

 

Nobody KNOWS anything, we all just have opinions. Some people confuse that with fact. My sister-in-law does it all the time. Is this the pet peeves thread? 

 

Yes, well, that's the problem. Pete and those who think like him seem to think that EVERY pick used on anything other than a QB will be a success, and the team will be great for it. They think it's a fact. It's not.

 

The only FACT is that since we've avoided QB for 20 years, we've sucked.

 

[Augie]

1 minute ago, Pete said:

It is a well calculated, educated guess.  You pick the QB- and I pick Roquan.  Lets see who makes probowl

 

Which position is more important? You have to weight those choices. Nailing the QB position is FAR more important than getting a good LB. You can’t pretend they are of equal value.