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Mel Kiper's Nightmare Mock 3.0


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I think Kiper is right on the money.  Our only hope is trading into the 4 slot.  I wonder if we could sweeten the deal for the Browns by throwing in Shady to soften the blow of losing Barkley?  Then they get a plug and play elite running back to pair with their new franchise QB and nice stable of young wideouts.

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seriously, Kiper sucks at this. Every year. He is one of the worst.  He is like the Farmer's Almanac of Mock Drafters. 

When he's wrong, no one remembers.

When he's right....wow, he's soooo smart!

 

This year, he has Allen going number 1. Please remember that one, folks.

Getting the first pick right is almost always easy.  This year, it will LIKELY be Darnold and it COULD be Barkley. Yet Kiper has Allen.

 

Last year, Mike Mayock, Tood Mcshay and the great Mel Kiper got 10 out of 96 attempts right. That means, each averaged 3 1/3 picks

right in round one. McShay and Kiper got the first pick wrong

 

(The trio correctly picked 10 selections ... combined.

All three hit on the two running backs selections, Leonard Fournette (Jacksonville Jaguars, No. 4) and Christian McCaffrey (Carolina Panthers, No. 8) but they missed on the two other consensus predictions, O.J. Howard (predicted New York Jets, No. 6; actual Tampa Bay Bucs, No. 19) and Jonathan Allen (predicted Cincinnati Bengals, No. 9; actual Washington Redskins, No. 17).

 

When's Kiper is wrong (again), please remember this in 2019. Save yourself some precious life/living time.

Edited by richNjoisy
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1 hour ago, kdiggz said:

Changing defenses, lost their best pass rusher, other DE suspended for ped's, might be losing OBJ. I don't think they can afford to turn down all of those picks to get a player that will sit on the bench for 2 yrs and not help the team

Will they have another opportunity to draft a QB this high? We've been waiting forever for a QB, other franchises , especially the Giants, won't be wanting for a QB when Eli is done.

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1 hour ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/insider/story/_/id/22917443/nfl-mock-draft-2018-30-mel-kiper-first-round-pick-rankings-draft-order-32-picks (You need Insider to read it)

 

1.) Cleveland Browns - QB Josh Allen

2.) New York Giants -  QB Sam Darnold

3.) New York Jets - QB Josh Rosen

4.) Cleveland Browns - RB Saquon Barkley

5.) Denver Broncos - QB Baker Mayfield

 

This is a likely scenario that terrifies me. I don't want to know what this board's going to look like if it goes down this way. 

 

I'm thankful Kiper put it out there, though. Pretty much guarantees it'll go differently. 

 

I think Darnold goes #1, Rosen goes #2, Allen goes #3.

But the results are basically the same.

 

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35 minutes ago, yungmack said:

Relax and consider the source.

yeah, but it's not a stretch to see than scenario pan out.

Just now, mjt328 said:

 

I think Darnold goes #1, Rosen goes #2, Allen goes #3.

But the results are basically the same.

 

yep, and Cleveland would be crazy to pass on Barkley at #4

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1 hour ago, TOboy said:

As you alluded, Mel is pretty much never correct, so I wouldn't worry too much about that. 

 

It is possible that 4 QB's go in the first 5 picks though, in which case I think we stay put and take a dominant LB at 12, then 22 leaves plenty of options (including QB, dependent on how high they are on Jackson or Rudolph). 

 

There's also the option of waiting until next year, and maybe even dealing 22 for a first next year, if you're really not sold on the guys left. I definitely don't want them just reaching on a guy to appease the fan base. The key isn't getting A guy, it's getting THE guy. 

Thank You!!! Seems like every Tom, Doug Marrone and Harry want to move up just for the sake of moving up. 

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1 minute ago, joesixpack said:

 

People who are in denial about the VERY REAL possibility of 4 QB gone in the first 10 picks confound me, I'll admit.

 

it's just wishful thinking. Why would a team with a serious need for a QB pass on the chance to get a top prospect.

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I really don't personally think Denver wants a QB at 5.  Or at least I don't think they should want one there. 

 

Case Keenum didn't get a huge contract, but they drafted Lynch in 2016, and kelly in 2017.  They need to get younger at a lot of positions in the next couple of years.  Chubb or Nelson would help them beef up their lines a ton.  Chubb across from Miller would create a mean pass rush.  Bolles and Nelson creates a huge strength on the o-line which makes your QB that much better.  

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2 minutes ago, dneveu said:

I really don't personally think Denver wants a QB at 5.  Or at least I don't think they should want one there. 

 

Case Keenum didn't get a huge contract, but they drafted Lynch in 2016, and kelly in 2017.  They need to get younger at a lot of positions in the next couple of years.  Chubb or Nelson would help them beef up their lines a ton.  Chubb across from Miller would create a mean pass rush.  Bolles and Nelson creates a huge strength on the o-line which makes your QB that much better.  

Shirley.  You can't be serious.

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2 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/insider/story/_/id/22917443/nfl-mock-draft-2018-30-mel-kiper-first-round-pick-rankings-draft-order-32-picks (You need Insider to read it)

 

1.) Cleveland Browns - QB Josh Allen

2.) New York Giants -  QB Sam Darnold

3.) New York Jets - QB Josh Rosen

4.) Cleveland Browns - RB Saquon Barkley

5.) Denver Broncos - QB Baker Mayfield

 

This is a likely scenario that terrifies me. I don't want to know what this board's going to look like if it goes down this way. 

 

I'm thankful Kiper put it out there, though. Pretty much guarantees it'll go differently. 

If Darnold doesn’t go first, I think the Bills will go all in to get him at 2.

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8 minutes ago, dneveu said:

I really don't personally think Denver wants a QB at 5.  Or at least I don't think they should want one there. 

 

Case Keenum didn't get a huge contract, but they drafted Lynch in 2016, and kelly in 2017.  They need to get younger at a lot of positions in the next couple of years.  Chubb or Nelson would help them beef up their lines a ton.  Chubb across from Miller would create a mean pass rush.  Bolles and Nelson creates a huge strength on the o-line which makes your QB that much better.  

I think the only reason they are keeping Lynch around is so they know how bad they need a QB.

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14 minutes ago, klos63 said:

it's just wishful thinking. Why would a team with a serious need for a QB pass on the chance to get a top prospect.

 

I'm not a gambling man, but I would almost guarantee that 4 will be gone within the Top 10. 

If someone really likes Lamar Jackson, I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if someone trades into the Top 10 to get him as well.

 

Unfortunately, I have serious doubts that the Browns or Giants are even willing to trade out.  (If so, the Jets would have certainly gone higher). 

Our best hope is giving up a ton of picks to get #4 from the Browns (assuming they are even willing), jumping the Broncos and taking the 4th guy off the board. 

 

Even if we like the 5th QB (likely Jackson), it may require a massive trade-up to secure him.  Because the Dolphins are still ahead of us and the Cardinals are only a few behind, with plenty of reason to move ahead of us. 

 

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14 minutes ago, dneveu said:

I really don't personally think Denver wants a QB at 5.  Or at least I don't think they should want one there. 

 

Case Keenum didn't get a huge contract, but they drafted Lynch in 2016, and kelly in 2017.  They need to get younger at a lot of positions in the next couple of years.  Chubb or Nelson would help them beef up their lines a ton.  Chubb across from Miller would create a mean pass rush.  Bolles and Nelson creates a huge strength on the o-line which makes your QB that much better.  

 

Keenum got a "bridge-level" contract.

Lynch has already been labeled a bust.

Kelly was a Day 3 pick and will be lucky to make the roster.

 

The Broncos are in a great position to just sit and wait.  That was the purpose of signing Keenum.  Not to be their long-term plan.

If the guy they like falls, they will snatch him up.  If not, there are plenty of other guys (Nelson, Barkley, Chubb) who will definitely be there at #5.

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4 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Keenum got a "bridge-level" contract.

Lynch has already been labeled a bust.

Kelly was a Day 3 pick and will be lucky to make the roster.

 

The Broncos are in a great position to just sit and wait.  That was the purpose of signing Keenum.  Not to be their long-term plan.

If the guy they like falls, they will snatch him up.  If not, there are plenty of other guys (Nelson, Barkley, Chubb) who will definitely be there at #5.

 

Agree and I'm guessing it's Allen. Maybe he's there at 5. 

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2 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Yeah, Eli only has 2 years left on his contract so I think they can both count on him being there for 2 years, and also count on him being there no more than 2 years.

I think the Giants go crazy and draft that offensive guard. And it would be smart to do so. Pick up one of the good running backs later by trading down in the first round

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1 hour ago, kdiggz said:

You are suggesting they get a franchise QB for 2-3 yrs down the road. These guys might not have jobs in 2-3 yrs if they only win 3 games like last year. They would be setting up the next regime for success rather than helping themselves. Unless they had some kind of guarantee on job security (good luck with that) they are going to want to build a team to win now, not later

I wish you were right but Eli's days are numbered. He was bad enough to be benched last year. There is no guaranty he is going to be around or even serviceable in 2018 let alone 2019. This is also not a team on the verge of winning a championship that just needs a few pieces to make a legit run at a title. They are the second worst team in football at the moment, the very definition of a team that is in full rebuild mode whether they admit it or not. If you have an opportunity to get a franchise QB, you take it, you don't soldier on in the belief that when you really, really need one, fate will provide. As Bills fans, we are in dire need of the Giants passing on a QB because if they don't, it is one less trading partner. Consequently, we convince ourselves that sure, the Giants will pass on a franchise QB because that happens all the time. I'd love to believe it but if I was a NYG fan and they gave away an opportunity to lock up their next great QB for a chance to go from 3-13 to 6-10, I'd be furious.

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2 hours ago, TheBrownBear said:

I think Kiper is right on the money.  Our only hope is trading into the 4 slot.  I wonder if we could sweeten the deal for the Browns by throwing in Shady to soften the blow of losing Barkley?  Then they get a plug and play elite running back to pair with their new franchise QB and nice stable of young wideouts.

Shady, 22, 53, and 65 for 4 and I take Barkley at 4 and Jackson at 12.

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I have a feeling this is how the draft will fall. Those 4 players will be the top 5 unless somehow Chubb is the guy at 2 or 5 ?

 

I 100% want to get into the top 5 for one of those QBs 

 

BUT 

 

if we ended up with Edmunds at 12 like Mel predicts I'd be very very happy...especially if we don't waste a later pick on any of the other non Franchise QBs

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1 minute ago, Commonsense said:

I don't ever see him being an opening day starter by design for any NFL team. He simply is not good. 

 

I honestly don't think it will matter.  Keenum will have a good year with that team if they can keep him upright.  Thomas and Sanders, Anderson and Booker, and they even get Jake Butt back from his college injury. 

 

Kelly and Lynch can compete to the be the backup/qb of the future should it fail, but using a top pick on another QB after 2 years, AND spending fairly large in free agency (keenum is their highest paid player by cap hit in 2018) just seems unlikely. 

 

Certainly possible - I would think they'd have to love ONE of the guys there at 5 and it isn't Allen.  Not after what happened with their last project QB in Lynch.

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There are rumors Denver really likes Rudolph, maybe a swap with them, something like 12/22 for 5/99, that leaves them in potential position to make a move for Nelson (they have a bunch of 4ths) up from 12 or sit at 12 and get an impact defensive player and still get Rudolph at 22 before the Steelers / Saints etc if someone is thinking of grabbing him late.

 

 

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4 hours ago, DCOrange said:

I'd love to have Edmunds but I don't foresee Alexander being a 1st round pick, nor do I envision him being a guy that Buffalo would target.

 

Tremaine Edmunds and Jaire Alexander

I would be fine with this.

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