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Previously the "Convince me Allen won't suck" thread, now the... "you're welcome" thread


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4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Congrats on defaulting to a lazy argument instead of considering the point of the post.  Does his completion percentage need to improve?  Yes.  Can it?  Absolutely; guys do it all the time in the NFL.  Josh McCown was a 51% passer in college; he completed 67% of his passes last year.

 

What I want to know is if you actually watched the kid?  When does he have accuracy issues?  When he's under immediate duress, and when his footwork gets leaky trying to rush the ball to the perimeter--are those fatal flaws, or can they be corrected?

 

Let's go man, put a reasonable argument together that doesn't amount to "COMPLETION PERCENTAGE!!1!!1!1!!"

 

Are we really condemning the kid to doom because he was 1% less accurate in college than Matthew Stafford and 3% less accurate in college than Carson Palmer?

 

Josh Allen could end up being the best QB out of this draft.   It might take a few years of seasoning for him to get there, but the potential is there.

 

I have no problem with the Bills taking this guy if they believe he will be the best.    All we can really do is trust McDermott and Beane to make the right decision about whomever they draft or pass on at whatever spot they are able to draft from.    They need to get it right.

 

Behind a decent offensive line - Allen could end up being a superstar.

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49 minutes ago, bmur66 said:

If we don't move up and he is there at 12, we better grab him or it will haunt Bills fans for a long time. Maybe

 

Like the Bills finding JP Losman still on the board at #22 so they had to work a trade to "grab" him? 

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5 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

I'm not sure that this is proof that he's consistently accurate, but thanks for showing us some of the highlights. All the film I've watched has been the complete game film, but seeing some of his highlights all together like that is so much fun. Simply put, on his good days, he can make throws that no other QB in this draft class would even attempt to make, for better or worse.

 

Good post; indeed, I watched every throw I could three times over, and your last sentence captures it perfectly: when he's right, he's easily the best QB in this draft--and it isn't close.  You need him to be on his game more consistently than he was in college, but I find his faults to be correctable.

 

The more I dig into him, the more I become convinced that he's got a real shot...to the point where I won't be upset if Buffalo ends up with him one way or another.

 

Now, I still think he's going to go either 1 to Cleveland or 3 to NYJ.

Edited by thebandit27
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I think Allen would be an interesting prospect....like....I saw like 5 videos of "all the throws".

 

Hes not as bad as the people that are hating on him say....but hes def not as good as the scouts think.

 

Passing on some premiere talent for Allen early in the draft I think is dumb....if he drops and youre in a good position to not hurt if he doesnt pan out, I think you pull it.

 

The scouts see all the physical tools......and see the potential....but is the team that drafts him gonna be the team to mold him into the QB they think he can be?

 

Hes gotta be in a great situation to have a chance to improve. If this guy goes on a crappy team/system/oline I think hes gonna bust.

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1 minute ago, McBean said:

The hype with Allen reminds me of Gabbert situation a few years ago.

 

Gabbert had a somewhat decent college career at a power 5 school.

 

Allen was horrible at Wyoming...Wyoming!!!

 

This isn't even close to being an accurate take--it's not even hyperbole; it's laughable.

1 minute ago, Ramza86 said:

I think Allen would be an interesting prospect....like....I saw like 5 videos of "all the throws".

 

Hes not as bad as the people that are hating on him say....but hes def not as good as the scouts think.

 

Passing on some premiere talent for Allen early in the draft I think is dumb....if he drops and youre in a good position to not hurt if he doesnt pan out, I think you pull it.

 

The scouts see all the physical tools......and see the potential....but is the team that drafts him gonna be the team to mold him into the QB they think he can be?

 

Hes gotta be in a great situation to have a chance to improve. If this guy goes on a crappy team/system/oline I think hes gonna bust.

 

True, but that's also true of 90% of QB prospects nowadays.

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19 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Congrats on defaulting to a lazy argument instead of considering the point of the post.  Does his completion percentage need to improve?  Yes.  Can it?  Absolutely; guys do it all the time in the NFL.  Josh McCown was a 51% passer in college; he completed 67% of his passes last year.

 

What I want to know is if you actually watched the kid?  When does he have accuracy issues?  When he's under immediate duress, and when his footwork gets leaky trying to rush the ball to the perimeter--are those fatal flaws, or can they be corrected?

 

Let's go man, put a reasonable argument together that doesn't amount to "COMPLETION PERCENTAGE!!1!!1!1!!"

 

Are we really condemning the kid to doom because he was 1% less accurate in college than Matthew Stafford and 3% less accurate in college than Carson Palmer?

 

If you're not accurate at Wyoming. You're not going to be accurate in the NFL. It's as simple as that. You're pointing to Matt Stafford as the one QB who's had okay success at the NFL level but completely ignoring the long list of guys who've completely flamed out. 

 

The Buffalo Bills are not in position to take a chance on a flier like Josh Allen especially considering the cost that it's going to take. 

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Just now, thebandit27 said:

 

Your last sentence captures it perfectly: when he's right, he's easily the best QB in this draft--and it isn't close.  You need him to be on his game more consistently than he was in college, but I find his faults to be correctable.

 

The more I dig into him, the more I become convinced that he's got a real shot...to the point where I won't be upset if Buffalo ends up with him one way or another.

 

Now, I still think he's going to go either 1 to Cleveland or 3 to NYJ.

 

Yeah, I don't disagree. I think Darnold and Allen are the top 2 on both Cleveland, New York, and Buffalo's big boards but we'll see how it all shakes out in a month!

2 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

 

If you're not accurate at Wyoming. You're not going to be accurate in the NFL. It's as simple as that. You're pointing to Matt Stafford as the one QB who's had okay success at the NFL level but completely ignoring the long list of guys who've completely flamed out. 

 

The Buffalo Bills are not in position to take a chance on a flier like Josh Allen especially considering the cost that it's going to take. 

 

Why not?

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Just now, FeelingOnYouboty said:

 

If you're not accurate at Wyoming. You're not going to be accurate in the NFL. It's as simple as that. You're pointing to Matt Stafford as the one QB who's had okay success at the NFL level but completely ignoring the long list of guys who've completely flamed out. 

 

The Buffalo Bills are not in position to take a chance on a flier like Josh Allen especially considering the cost that it's going to take. 

 

You continue to harp on a fallback argument and ignore the data.  I've mentioned more than Stafford as examples (Palmer, McCown, Matt Ryan), but hey, if you're stuck on "COMPLETION PERCENTAGE!!1!!1!1!!" as your argument and have no interest in actually scouting the kid, then cool, just say so and I won't discuss him with you.

 

Let's make it all about the %age; we'd much rather have guys that completed nearly 67% of their passes in college like Tim Tebow and EJ Manuel.

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30 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Are we really condemning the kid to doom because he was 1% less accurate in college than Matthew Stafford and 3% less accurate in college than Carson Palmer?

 

I don't care about completion percentage. I care about his awful ball placement, mechanics, and field vision.

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20 minutes ago, Mickey said:

 

 

In the end, all our debate here is over which of us is better at predicting the future. And if any of us could do that accurately, we would live in Vegas.

 

No I'm unsure about most QBs going in the 1st round. Not Josh Allen. I am sure he will be a bust. If I could make a living betting against every 1st round QB like him I would. No one with his scouting profile has lasted, not in this millennium.

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I don't believe in him either, but here is the case I would make about why he could be successful based off those who have countered me:

 

-Excellent tools and good leader which helps commanding an NFL offense. If you can get his completion percentage even to just 62% your looking at a real stud for QB

-Matt Stafford has a similarly low completion percentage and rounded out quite nicely

-The way Tyrod could use his legs to create a great play Allen's arm is so talented that he can make throws literally most QBs can't solely off of that which create plays that otherwise wouldn't exist. There are clips of this available.

-A team like Buffalo has a talented running game that would take a lot of pressure off of him having to carry the team for the first year or two. Plus Dabol is regarded as an OC that makes the most with the talent he has, he doesn't try to force a scheme like Dennison

-His supporting cast was far worse in his final year at college with a lot of drops and players who couldn't get open enough to make the catch. With a better supporting cast he would see an uptick in all stats though that may include INTs.

-Played in a pro style offense so would have a faster transition to NFL

-Projecting QB's is an impossible art. His size and talent compares to players like Farve & Wentz, but it also compares to players like Jake Locker & EJ Manuel. Even with his flaws your truthfully don't know and Buffalo does offer an offense that has a decent enough line and running game that would take the pressure off early regardless of fan expectations. Remember Tyrod and the Bills were 31st in passing, even if we move up to just 23rd in passing would the team be worse or better? I think it would be a better personally.

 

Overall to me its boom or bust. He could be Carson Wentz, big tall passer with loads of talent that develops into a stud or EJ Manuel who has the same physique but never could get the accuracy or mental sign in check to be a true QB. Personally I'd take Rosen, Darnold, or Mayfield any day over Allen.

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I watch this and I can not be convinced he sucks yet I can not say he'll be great nor suck at the next level as many can't base college play transitioning to the next level? 

 

if they were to pick him I would support him and hope he would he would succeed as the bills future starting QB?

 

note: I realize it is one play and not enough to give any real assessment but the same can be said at the next level since he has yet to take a snap in the nfl.

 

bottom line, he doesn't suck.

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9 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Show me and we'll discuss it, because I've shown examples of the opposite in this thread.

 

You've shown a few examples of good throws. I'm talking about the overall trend. I could go find that Eliot Crist Twitter thread, it's pretty open and shut. He will not suddenly fix his terrible ball placement and decision making when the game is moving 10 times faster. It's never happened before. I have to think that if Mahomes and Allen bust we'll stop seeing these kinds of QBs get drafted high.

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28 minutes ago, PolishDave said:

 

Josh Allen could end up being the best QB out of this draft.   It might take a few years of seasoning for him to get there, but the potential is there.

 

I have no problem with the Bills taking this guy if they believe he will be the best.    All we can really do is trust McDermott and Beane to make the right decision about whomever they draft or pass on at whatever spot they are able to draft from.    They need to get it right.

 

Behind a decent offensive line - Allen could end up being a superstar.

If the Bills moved up to the #2 spot and the choice was between Allen and Rosen whom do you think they would select? I think it would be Rosen but would have no problem with Allen. I wouldn't be surprised if the Jets had the same decision to make they would select Allen. If the Giants stayed pat and decided to take a qb and Darnold was off the board I think they would take Rosen. If I had to guess of the top four qbs I would say that Mayfield is the most likely to slide. 

 

If you look at the qb situation in Buffalo with McCarron, the Giants with Eli, the Jets with McCown and Bridgewater there is no compelling reason  to immediately put him on the field. In each situation it is likely he will be given the time to better prepare for the rigors of the pro game. 

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18 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Let's make it all about the %age; we'd much rather have guys that completed nearly 67% of their passes in college like Tim Tebow and EJ Manuel.

 

Yep this is why I don't care about completion percentage at the college level. Manuel was exactly the same type of prospect and failed the same way Josh Allen will fail.

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Can't. Cant convince you ANY of these QBs wont suck...NONE of them are Andrew Luck cant miss prospects. People keep trying to hype them up but they just aren't as good as people want to make them out to be and we will find out on draft day how the NFL teams truly feel...my guess is there will be guys that drop out of the top 10 and guys that drop into round 2 because the media loves them more than the GMs and scouts do...

 

Especially when you start talking about the 3rd or 4th best QB compared to the best player at their position that will still be there on a lot of boards....makes it kinda hard to justify pulling the trigger.

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6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yep this is why I don't care about completion percentage at the college level. Manuel was exactly the same type of prospect and failed the same way Josh Allen will fail.

Lol he was not even close to the exact prospect, much different talent level. That doesn't mean he will be good but, he has much more upside than EJ ever had. The kid shows flashes of greatness, has all the physical tools, along with the willingness to work hard. That's why he doesn't automatically suck. He might end up sucking, but it's far from an open and shut case.

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4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

You've shown a few examples of good throws. I'm talking about the overall trend. I could go find that Eliot Crist Twitter thread, it's pretty open and shut. He will not suddenly fix his terrible ball placement and decision making when the game is moving 10 times faster. It's never happened before. I have to think that if Mahomes and Allen bust we'll stop seeing these kinds of QBs get drafted high.

Why do you think that  Mahomes is going to be a bust? KC handled him the way Allen is probably going to be handled. His first year was a prep year for the most part. He played in the last game and did well. Mahomes must have impressed the KC staff well enough for them to dispatch their long term starter. 

 

When watching clips of Allen you do see him make some well placed throws. Some of his long bucket throws are stunningly impressive. That shows you that getting him to be consistent with his mechanics he can be more consistent with his accuracy. Your hesitancy on Allen is understandable. But the same hesitancy you have on him is the same hesitancy that exists for all of the top qbs in this draft. Don't let perfect be the enemy of the good. 

 

 

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37 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

You're pointing to Matt Stafford as the one QB who's had okay success at the NFL level but completely ignoring the long list of guys who've completely flamed out. 

 

Matt Stafford isn't a good comparison anyways. He was a consensus #1 because on top of his elite arm strength he also regularly threaded the ball into tight windows and was generally accurate. He had better footwork than Josh Allen and he played well against pressure (Allen is terrible with even a small amount of pressure). The questions on Stafford were on his decision making/gunslinger attitude. Rosen is a much better comparison to Stafford IMO. Josh Allen is like Kyle Boller.

5 minutes ago, BuffaloSol said:

The kid shows flashes of greatness, has all the physical tools, along with the willingness to work hard.

 

Haha this is exactly what people used to say about EJ. Word for word. I hated when we picked him too. Any time a QB is being touted for his "physical tools" you know he is a 2nd round project at best.

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He's really just as restrictive as Lamar Jackson. Allen depends on the system you run. If he went to the Steelers and they ran the same offense they run with Big Ben he could be good. If you try to put him in a quick passing West Coast system he might suck. He'd be good in the west coast the Packers or the Saints run. You have to let him throw deep on almost every play. You have to design an offense of deep outs and deep posts and comebacks and back shoulders. You have to understand from the day you get him he may never see underneath throws like the offense they run in NE.

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8 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Why do you think that  Mahomes is going to be a bust? KC handled him the way Allen is probably going to be handled. His first year was a prep year for the most part. He played in the last game and did well. Mahomes must have impressed the KC staff well enough for them to dispatch their long term starter. 

 

I like Mahomes better than I like Allen. Mostly because he can throw on the run and I think his deep ball is much more accurate than Allen's. When Allen moves his feet his ball placement is terrible. I see him as being an all time bust if he goes in the top 5.

 

And I think Mahomes will bust because he isn't accurate enough on the common throws every QB needs to make. I agree KC did the right thing sitting him his whole rookie year. I am less sure that they did the right thing jettisoning Alex Smith and forcing Mahomes into the starting role. Smith was one of the best QBs in the NFL at pushing the ball down the field last year. He had the #1 passer rating on deep throws. That's supposed to be Mahomes's strength but it's incredibly unlikely that he'll do better than Smith did. I think it will blow up in their face but we'll see.

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12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Matt Stafford isn't a good comparison anyways. He was a consensus #1 because on top of his elite arm strength he also regularly threaded the ball into tight windows and was generally accurate. He had better footwork than Josh Allen and he played well against pressure (Allen is terrible with even a small amount of pressure). The questions on Stafford were on his decision making/gunslinger attitude. Rosen is a much better comparison to Stafford IMO. Josh Allen is like Kyle Boller.

 

Haha this is exactly what people used to say about EJ. Word for word. I hated when we picked him too. Any time a QB is being touted for his "physical tools" you know he is a 2nd round project at best.

 

The man had the nerve to mention Josh McCown as a success story lol

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21 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Matt Stafford isn't a good comparison anyways. He was a consensus #1 because on top of his elite arm strength he also regularly threaded the ball into tight windows and was generally accurate. He had better footwork than Josh Allen and he played well against pressure (Allen is terrible with even a small amount of pressure). The questions on Stafford were on his decision making/gunslinger attitude. Rosen is a much better comparison to Stafford IMO. Josh Allen is like Kyle Boller.

 

Haha this is exactly what people used to say about EJ. Word for word. I hated when we picked him too. Any time a QB is being touted for his "physical tools" you know he is a 2nd round project at best.

 

Your comments about Stafford are revisionist history:

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/matthew-stafford?id=79860

 

"Sloppy footwork. ... Will get lazy and throw off his back foot, which could lead to turnovers in the NFL... ... Willing to throw into tight spots, though more often than not he places the ball where it needs to be... ... Not great accuracy on crossing routes. ... Too often leads his receivers too far or forces them to reach back, slowing their momentum and limiting their ability to generate yardage after the catch."

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/118342-nfl-combine-analysis-matthew-stafford

 

"When Stafford is “on” there are few quarterbacks who can take over a game the way he does."

"Although Stafford can be brilliant at times, he has been known to be plagued with inconsistency, a trait that cannot be masked in the NFL."

"

He has so much potential and is so physically gifted that at times he seems to try to play above his potential. While this is a concern for some scouts, others argue that all of the greats have some of this in their DNA.

Let’s not kid ourselves. Matthew Stafford has a cannon for an arm! The kid has his question marks attached, but so does every budding star.

Much of his future in the NFL will depend on what other offensive weapons are around him. Right now the Detroit Lions seem to be the most probable landing spot for the Bulldog quarterback and that is not good news for him."

 

 

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10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I like Mahomes better than I like Allen. Mostly because he can throw on the run and I think his deep ball is much more accurate than Allen's. When Allen moves his feet his ball placement is terrible. I see him as being an all time bust if he goes in the top 5.

 

And I think Mahomes will bust because he isn't accurate enough on the common throws every QB needs to make. I agree KC did the right thing sitting him his whole rookie year. I am less sure that they did the right thing jettisoning Alex Smith and forcing Mahomes into the starting role. Smith was one of the best QBs in the NFL at pushing the ball down the field last year. He had the #1 passer rating on deep throws. That's supposed to be Mahomes's strength but it's incredibly unlikely that he'll do better than Smith did. I think it will blow up in their face but we'll see.

Just think if the Bills would have drafted either Mahomes or Watson last year? This upcoming draft would be exciting not for the unending discussion about a qb but for the expected infusion of players with the added picks. In my view the rebuilding process would have been accelerated instead of delayed for the never-ending quest to find a franchise qb. The "what if" debates can be gut wrenching. 

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9 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Your comments about Stafford are revisionist history:

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/matthew-stafford?id=79860

 

"Sloppy footwork. ... Will get lazy and throw off his back foot, which could lead to turnovers in the NFL... ... Willing to throw into tight spots, though more often than not he places the ball where it needs to be... ... Not great accuracy on crossing routes. ... Too often leads his receivers too far or forces them to reach back, slowing their momentum and limiting their ability to generate yardage after the catch."

 

Look at the bold. "More often than not" he had good ball placement. That is absolutely not the case with Josh Allen. Look at Stafford's strengths from the same profile:

 

Blessed with a stronger and more accurate arm than many current NFL quarterbacks... Efficient footwork and depth on his drop from center. ... Quick to scan the field and go through his progressions ... Can make all the throws and shows power and toughness getting the ball deep even when defenders are closing and making contact. ... Consistent with excellent accuracy to all levels of the field. ... Consistent placing the deep out on the far shoulder of his receiver, away from the defender. ... Has good deep accuracy and trajectory. ... Lofts the ball high enough to allow his receiver to run under it.

 

You won't find any scouting report of Josh Allen that reads like this. Stafford's accuracy is brought up as a positive; Allen's is always a negative. His positives are exclusively tied to his physical traits.

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27 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Just think if the Bills would have drafted either Mahomes or Watson last year? This upcoming draft would be exciting not for the unending discussion about a qb but for the expected infusion of players with the added picks. In my view the rebuilding process would have been accelerated instead of delayed for the never-ending quest to find a franchise qb. The "what if" debates can be gut wrenching. 

 

If we had drafted Mahomes we'd have a total unknown getting ready to start for a team with one of the worst receiving corps in football. If we had drafted Watson we'd have a guy who showed promise, but also had the 3rd worst INT rate among starting QBs and just tore his 2nd ACL in 4 years. The grass is always greener until you take a closer look.

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21 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Look at the bold. "More often than not" he had good ball placement. That is absolutely not the case with Josh Allen. Look at Stafford's strengths from the same profile:

 

 

 

 

You won't find any scouting report of Josh Allen that reads like this. Stafford's accuracy is brought up as a positive; Allen's is always a negative. His positives are exclusively tied to his physical traits.

 

Who cares how their respective accuracies are described? They're less than 1% different 

 

Are we really drilling down to phrasing at this point?

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10 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Who cares how their respective accuracies are described? They're less than 1% different 

 

Are we really drilling down to phrasing at this point?

 

Earlier you said just going off of completion percentage is lazy. But now you're conflating completion percentage with accuracy. I don't care what Stafford's completion percentage was. EJ Manuel had a better completion percentage in college but clearly was less accurate than Stafford.

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2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Earlier you said just going off of completion percentage is lazy. But now you're conflating completion percentage with accuracy. I don't care what Stafford's completion percentage was. EJ Manuel had a better completion percentage in college but clearly was less accurate than Stafford.

 

You spoke to how each player's accuracy was described; my point is that I don't care how it's described.  Both players faced accuracy questions coming out of school.

 

As for Allen's accuracy always being discussed as a negative, well, that's not true.

 

Take, for example, Daniel Jeremiah's opinion on him:

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000919918/article/daniel-jeremiahs-top-50-prospects-for-2018-nfl-draft-20

"He generates outrageous velocity and can squeeze the ball into very tight windows."  Sounds very similar to Stafford.

 

And then there's Lance Zierlein:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/profiles/josh-allen?id=2560029

"Prototype frame for pocket passer. Sturdy base allows him to shake off sacks and extend plays. Rare arm strength and overall arm talent. Has variety of release points if needed. Can uncork suddenly when it breaks open. Able to thread the needle with a rocket launcher. Makes throws that no other quarterback in college can make. Excellent thrower of deep outs. Able to outpace safeties to deep sideline throws. Aggressive pump-fakes open double moves. Turns into competent traffic director when scrambling. Can roll right and fling it down the field with impressive velocity and placement. Asked to read the entire field. No throw is too challenging. Has arm strength and mobility to create explosive plays when play goes off-schedule. Ability to challenge safeties over the top could help running games. Attacks intermediate windows with pretty good precision when allowed to sit down in the pocket. Has experience under center and operating in play-action passing attack. Willing to pull it and move the chains with his legs. Has experience in poor weather."

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1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

You've shown a few examples of good throws. I'm talking about the overall trend. I could go find that Eliot Crist Twitter thread, it's pretty open and shut. He will not suddenly fix his terrible ball placement and decision making when the game is moving 10 times faster. It's never happened before. I have to think that if Mahomes and Allen bust we'll stop seeing these kinds of QBs get drafted high.

As I have said elsewhere repeatedly, if people aren't factoring in where Allen played (the least populated state in the country that is in the middle of nowhere and has a black population of less than 1 percent) and the bad state of the program before he became starter, they aren't analyzing. 

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