Previously the "Convince me Allen won't suck" thread, now the... "you're welcome" thread

[mjt328]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

First, ask yourself why you believe that he won't.  It's extremely likely that the answer is going to come down to one thing: you don't like his completion percentage.

 

I say this because I haven't seen many folks say anything beyond that.  Usually it's not that succinct though; the detractors will say utterly ridiculous things like "he can't hit the broadside of a barn", which right away tells me that they haven't watched a lick of football from the kid.

 

Why can he succeed?  Well, let's start with the embarrassingly obvious: he's easily the most physically talented QB in the draft.  Huge arm, good athlete, extremely hard worker, and a clean kid off the field.  You can't ask for a lot more than that as a starting point.

 

Then you start to dig into what he does after the ball is snapped, and you see that he keeps plays alive when he's under pressure, is able to keep his eyes downfield, keeps communication with his targets when scrambling, and has a unique ability to challenge defenses over the top when on the move--that's the kind of thing that can't be defended. 

 

 

My analysis on Josh Allen has nothing to do with his completion percentage.  The other day, I watched his full-game matchups against Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado State, Utah State and Colorado.  So my opinion is based on 5 games, which is roughly half of his 2017 season.

 

No doubt, he occasionally makes really nice throws.  And thanks to his arm strength, he absolutely makes passes that some other prospects just can't.

 

But on a consistent basis, his accuracy is just really bad.  He is constantly missing easy passes at all levels, including his short/intermediate targets.

Good NFL quarterbacks are able to consistently hit moving targets (not stationary) between the waist and head level.  If a player has to break stride, jump, dive, reach or stretch out for a pass - it's not a good pass. 

 

EJ Manuel sometimes made nice throws too.  But his accuracy for an NFL QB was bad.  That is what I see with Allen.

 

 

[Batman1876]

I don't think hell suck because he clearly blows. 

[BillsfanAZ]

If the Bills can get Allen at 12 then I would be ok with it but not love it. Jamarcus Russell, Kyle Boller, and the list goes on of QBs that got drafted high with a very strong arm. Senior Bowl Allen was hit and miss. He had two nice TD's late with touch throws to the back of the end zone. If the Bills are going to trade up, I hope they pick a QB that is more consistent and less of a project. 

[FeelingOnYouboty]

Man like Josh Allen averaged 164 yards a game this year lmaoooo!

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I mean - Brett Favre played at a small school and didn't put up impressive numbers.  I know people will say its a different era, etc.  But Allen played on a crappy team.  Who knows if he'll be good or not.

[D521646]

4 hours ago, Buddo said:

A guy who not only has prototypical size for an NFL QB, but who also has an arm that is better than that size. Other measurables are pretty good also.

 

Iirc, he hasn't really been playing football/QB all that long, relativ to other guys. This means his bad habits could be easier coached out. I'd also say that his 'coachability', would be very high.

 

Tbh, I've only seen a highlight reel and one game with all of his throws, but he seems to have some basic football intelligence, especially where he does realize you get rid of the football, rather than take a sack. He hasn't got so much of an arm, as a missile. I have seen him throw it without using ll the heat though.

 

Undoubtedly accuracy is an issue, but much of it might be down to simple footwork, rather than 'couldn't hit a cow's arse with a banjo' type of erratic.

 

I'm not an advocate as such, merely playing 'devil's advocate' in respect of why some might see him as a 1st round pick. Undoubtedly has the highest ceililng of any of this group of QBs, due to size and arm.

 

Me, I'd rather pick him in the 2nd round, and sit him for two years, as I think that would be the best scenario for him. I wouldn't rule him out of being a bust even then, but if he came through, boy would you have some serious talent to utilize.

 

 

I see Geno Smith, when I look at Allen..

 

Tim-

[thebandit27]

6 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

Man like Josh Allen averaged 164 yards a game this year lmaoooo!

 

Let's play "fun with numbers"...pop quiz: what did Allen's numbers look like against the top 3 FBS pass defenses he faced this year?

1 minute ago, D521646 said:

 

 

I see Geno Smith, when I look at Allen..

 

Tim-

 

[HappyDays]

29 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

You spoke to how each player's accuracy was described; my point is that I don't care how it's described.  Both players faced accuracy questions coming out of school.

 

As for Allen's accuracy always being discussed as a negative, well, that's not true.

 

Notice all the qualifiers. "Able to thread the needle." "Can roll right..." "Pretty good precision when allowed to sit in the pocket." No such qualifiers were used for Stafford because he was accurate more often than not. Look at the negatives on any one of Allen's scouting reports, ball placement always comes up. Look at the negatives on Stafford's scouting reports. They don't mention his ball placement, they mention his decision making. They're not similar prospects at all. The only thing they share is a strong arm. This should be immediately obvious by the fact that even though Allen's arm is even stronger than Stafford's, he is not a consensus #1 pick like Stafford was.

[D521646]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Let's play "fun with numbers"...pop quiz: what did Allen's numbers look like against the top 3 FBS pass defenses he faced this year?

 

 

 

I dunno, I'm with the rest here.  Just haven't seen enough from him.  That said, if evaluators see his high up-side as being 1st round material, then sure grab him at 12 if available.  Has he shown progression on errors year over year?  I simply do not know the answers to these questions, but I'm quite sure that the Bills scouting staff knows full-well what they get with Allen.

 

 

Tim-

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

I'll say it for like the bazillionth time.... I'd rather the Bills draft Rosen or Lamar Jackson but I'd be just as happy with Allen, he's a competitor, he took a ****ty Wyoming program with little to no help offensively, put the offense on his back (arm) and got them a bowl win, he can make any of the throws, with better receivers and supporting cast which i think we have I think he'll be an excellent face of the franchise, he showed what he could do at the senior bowl with better talent around him.

[thebandit27]

Just now, D521646 said:

 

 

I dunno, I'm with the rest here.  Just haven't seen enough from him.  That said, if evaluators see his high up-side as being 1st round material, then sure grab him at 12 if available.  Has he shown progression on errors year over year?  I simply do not know the answers to these questions, but I'm quite sure that the Bills scouting staff knows full-well what they get with Allen.

 

 

Tim-

 

Dude, a Geno Smith comparison?  They're not anything alike.

 

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

Notice all the qualifiers. "Able to thread the needle." "Can roll right..." "Pretty good precision when allowed to sit in the pocket." No such qualifiers were used for Stafford because he was accurate more often than not. Look at the negatives on any one of Allen's scouting reports, ball placement always comes up. Look at the negatives on Stafford's scouting reports. They don't mention his ball placement, they mention his decision making. They're not similar prospects at all. The only thing they share is a strong arm. This should be immediately obvious by the fact that even though Allen's arm is even stronger than Stafford's, he is not a consensus #1 pick like Stafford was.

 

Sorry, but I don't think you're being impartial here:

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/matthew-stafford?id=79860

 

"Sloppy footwork" - no qualifier; just plain sloppy

"Will get lazy and throw off his back foot"

"Not great accuracy on crossing routes"

"Too often leads his receivers too far or forces them to reach back, slowing their momentum and limiting their ability to generate yardage after the catch"

 

And the reason that Stafford was a consensus #1 pick is because he was competing against Sanchez and Josh Freeman for the QB1 spot that year.

[Heitz]

Mayock has him ranked as his #2 QB, FWIW:  http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000920805/article/mike-mayocks-2018-nfl-draft-position-rankings-20

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/profiles/josh-allen?id=2560029

 

Big arm, but the weaknesses listed are scary...

[Boca BIlls]

If the twam chooses him than he must have something that none of us see... Trust the process.

Edited March 22, 2018 by Boca BIlls

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Here's why you'll get behind him:

 

He would be a Buffalo Bill

 

Done

 

No crap.

 

I've been saying that the whole time.

 

But why would I want him?

6 hours ago, Elite Poster said:

If Josh Allen were 2-3 inches shorter and about .2-.3 slower with his 40, he would probably be a 5th round pick. 

 

 

 

...or never make it to the NFL

Edited March 22, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Why does the NFL go down this path every few years?!!!!

 

Draft the guy after the first round if you want a pet project....which is what he is. All these goddamn contrived stats to say he's really more accurate than the film shows. SMDH

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Mark Vader said:

I can't.

 

Can you convince me that all of these QB's in this years draft won't suck?

100% spot on Mark 

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, 8-8 Forever? said:

Give me Lamar Jackson. 

 

Waiting for our trade up to #2, but if it doesn't happen, I think this is what happens. And I'll be excited about Jackson, too.

[Domdab99]

8 hours ago, bmur66 said:

So we can be like the Browns and have some nice bodies

 

We have nice bodies. Didn't you see Zay's butt the other night?

[jrober38]

1 hour ago, Heitz said:

Mayock has him ranked as his #2 QB, FWIW:  http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000920805/article/mike-mayocks-2018-nfl-draft-position-rankings-20

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/profiles/josh-allen?id=2560029

 

Big arm, but the weaknesses listed are scary...

 

Josh Allen's weaknesses aren't weaknesses for any top QBs. 

 

Every elite NFL QB has elite accuracy, and it's Allen's worst attribute. 

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Notice all the qualifiers. "Able to thread the needle." "Can roll right..." "Pretty good precision when allowed to sit in the pocket." No such qualifiers were used for Stafford because he was accurate more often than not. Look at the negatives on any one of Allen's scouting reports, ball placement always comes up. Look at the negatives on Stafford's scouting reports. They don't mention his ball placement, they mention his decision making. They're not similar prospects at all. The only thing they share is a strong arm. This should be immediately obvious by the fact that even though Allen's arm is even stronger than Stafford's, he is not a consensus #1 pick like Stafford was.

You can keep repeating this as long as you like, but it's just not true. This was written about Stafford pre-draft: " Too often leads his receivers too far or forces them to reach back, slowing their momentum and limiting their ability to generate yardage after the catch." 

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

5 hours ago, DCOrange said:

There's simply no way to convince someone that Allen won't suck because there is plenty of potential for him to.

 

But for a fan base that has had roughly an average QB for the past few years and decided that they're sick of average, I find it kind of odd that so many want to avoid taking one of the 2 or 3 QBs that has a legitimate shot at being an elite QB.

 

Probably because he resembles EJ Manuel... raw but with all the physical attributes to play the position.

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Probably because he resembles EJ Manuel... raw but with all the physical attributes to play the position.

He doesn't resemble Manuel at all IMO. They're just both big and tall.

 

Allen is on a different planet in terms of arm strength, release, velocity, throwing motion...the QB specific traits. Comping him to Manuel is lazy at best.

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

He doesn't resemble Manuel at all IMO. They're just both big and tall.

 

Allen is on a different planet in terms of arm strength, release, velocity, throwing motion...the QB specific traits. Comping him to Manuel is lazy at best.

 

Allen is a pretty good comparison to Kyle Boller or Jake Locker. 

 

Both were huge busts. 

[HappyDays]

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

You can keep repeating this as long as you like, but it's just not true. This was written about Stafford pre-draft: " Too often leads his receivers too far or forces them to reach back, slowing their momentum and limiting their ability to generate yardage after the catch." 

 

 

 

Stafford didn't have elite accuracy but he clearly had adequate accuracy. I'm not saying he's the most accurate prospect in a generation but he was miles ahead of where Josh Allen is now. His scouting report specifically mentioned accuracy to all areas of the field as a strength. He was less consistent than would be ideal but it was not a complete mess like Allen's is. If Stafford had a game as bad as Allen's against Boise St I'd like to see it.

[GoBills808]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

Allen is a pretty good comparison to Kyle Boller or Jake Locker. 

 

Both were huge busts. 

I'll go with Stafford or Favre. They were pretty good.

[sven233]

He's a guy that has every physical tool you dream about a QB having.  That said, I have watched a lot of him and he is slow to process the field, he's late on throws all the time (gets away with it because of his arm in college, but probably won't in the NFL), and he bails out of the pocket way too early, way too often. 

 

If you watch him, a lot of the "wow" throws he makes, which are impressive, are unnecessary in a lot of ways.  I mean, this might be a bit of a stretch, but he is a lot like Tyrod in terms of reading the field and bailing out too early.  Because he is slow through his reads, he bails out of the pocket a lot, even if there is no pressure, WAITS to see guys come open and then throws.  Taylor had the same problems having to wait to see guys come open.  Allen gets away with it more because of his arm strength, but he is not a guy that throws guys open a ton and the ball comes out real late too many times for my liking.  That is where the comparisons to Taylor ends because Allen is a superior passer for sure, but the way he reads the field, bails out early, and has to wait for guys to come open to throw many times is very concerning to me.  Give me a guy that moves around in the pocket, slides up, and steps into a throw any day over Allen.

 

Allen may turn out to be good someday because, as I said, he has every tool you look for.  But there are more things that concern me than don't and I would be much more comfortable with several other guys in this class before him.  Right now, he's behind Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield.....at least.  Maybe even Jackson.  There are much better options in this draft and I hope the Bills see it too.

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I'll go with Stafford or Favre. They were pretty good.

 

I don't see it.  Stafford was a lot more polished coming out of college. No one ever questioned his accuracy. 

He's got Farve's arm and the same hero, but I don't think he's the same type of play maker. 

 

Most big, strong, bazooka armed QBs have great tools but don't know how to do them. I think that's the case with Allen. The game tape doesn't lie. 

 

Edited March 22, 2018 by jrober38

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I'll go with Stafford or Favre. They were pretty good.

 

It's a problem when one of your examples was drafted in 1991, and the other - even ignoring my disagreement with the comparison - hasn't won a single playoff game in his 9-season career. And those are the best comparisons you could come up with!

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Congrats on defaulting to a lazy argument instead of considering the point of the post.  Does his completion percentage need to improve?  Yes.  Can it?  Absolutely; guys do it all the time in the NFL.  Josh McCown was a 51% passer in college; he completed 67% of his passes last year.

 

What I want to know is if you actually watched the kid?  When does he have accuracy issues?  When he's under immediate duress, and when his footwork gets leaky trying to rush the ball to the perimeter--are those fatal flaws, or can they be corrected?

 

Let's go man, put a reasonable argument together that doesn't amount to "COMPLETION PERCENTAGE!!1!!1!1!!"

 

Are we really condemning the kid to doom because he was 1% less accurate in college than Matthew Stafford and 3% less accurate in college than Carson Palmer?

 

This is all fine and dandy, the problem is he's going to be a high 1st round draft pick (unless there's been a whooOOOoooolllee lotta smokescreening, which wouldn't surprise me), rather than a mid round pick, which is where project QBs who are raw and need a ton of good coaching to reach their full potential are generally drafted... or should be.

 

And one would think our fan base learned that from the last dude we overdrafted in the 1st round.

[GoBills808]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

I don't see it. 

 

Stafford was a lot more polished coming out of college. No one ever questioned his accuracy. 

He's got Farve's arm and the same hero, but I don't think he's the same type of play maker. 

 

Untrue about Stafford's accuracy. There were questions about his accuracy as I've been explaining to HappyDays. I'll agree that he was more polished a passer than Allen, but I think Allen has an edge on him physically.

 

I'm not saying Allen is going to be good, even though I'm a fan. I'm saying there are enough reasons to think he MAY be that I wouldn't hate it if the Bills drafted him at all.

 

 

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

It's a problem when one of your examples was drafted in 1991, and the other - even ignoring my disagreement with the comparison - hasn't won a single playoff game in his 9-season career. And those are the best comparisons you could come up with!

 

Elite NFL QBs have elite accuracy.

 

Very few of them had the elite "tools" Allen brings to the table, so I don't understand why people drool over guys like him every year. 

Just now, GoBills808 said:

Untrue about Stafford's accuracy. There were questions about his accuracy as I've been explaining to HappyDays. I'll agree that he was more polished a passer than Allen, but I think Allen has an edge on him physically.

 

I'm not saying Allen is going to be good, even though I'm a fan. I'm saying there are enough reasons to think he MAY be that I wouldn't hate it if the Bills drafted him at all.

 

 

 

NFL.com's assessment disagreed. "Consistent with excellent accuracy to all levels of the field."

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/matthew-stafford?id=79860

 

 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

It's a problem when one of your examples was drafted in 1991, and the other - even ignoring my disagreement with the comparison - hasn't won a single playoff game in his 9-season career. And those are the best comparisons you could come up with!

Stafford? Yeah I'd take him in a heartbeat...you really going qbwinz here?

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

Elite NFL QBs have elite accuracy.

 

Very few of them had the elite "tools" Allen brings to the table, so I don't understand why people drool over guys like him every year. 

 

NFL.com's assessment disagreed. "Consistent with excellent accuracy to all levels of the field."

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/matthew-stafford?id=79860

 

 

They also said "Too often leads his receivers too far or forces them to reach back, slowing their momentum and limiting their ability to generate yardage after the catch" about Stafford. 

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Elite NFL QBs have elite accuracy.

 

Very few of them had the elite "tools" Allen brings to the table, so I don't understand why people drool over guys like him every year. 

 

NFL.com's assessment disagreed. "Consistent with excellent accuracy to all levels of the field."

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/matthew-stafford?id=79860

 

 

 

It's in the exact same link:

 

"Sloppy footwork. ... Will get lazy and throw off his back foot, which could lead to turnovers in the NFL... ... Willing to throw into tight spots, though more often than not he places the ball where it needs to be... ... Not great accuracy on crossing routes. ... Too often leads his receivers too far or forces them to reach back, slowing their momentum and limiting their ability to generate yardage after the catch."

[GoBills808]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

 

It's in the exact same link:

 

"Sloppy footwork. ... Will get lazy and throw off his back foot, which could lead to turnovers in the NFL... ... Willing to throw into tight spots, though more often than not he places the ball where it needs to be... ... Not great accuracy on crossing routes. ... Too often leads his receivers too far or forces them to reach back, slowing their momentum and limiting their ability to generate yardage after the catch."

Get outta here, we're reading and quoting selectively dammit! (I'm doing it too btw)

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

If we had drafted Mahomes we'd have a total unknown getting ready to start for a team with one of the worst receiving corps in football. If we had drafted Watson we'd have a guy who showed promise, but also had the 3rd worst INT rate among starting QBs and just tore his 2nd ACL in 4 years. The grass is always greener until you take a closer look.

The grass is greener on the other side of the fence especially when you don't have grass. As I said in another post don't let the seeking of perfection get in the way of seeking good. The ideal usually doesn't represent reality. 

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Stafford? Yeah I'd take him in a heartbeat...you really going qbwinz here?

 

I like Stafford but the problem is he's the only QB from this millennium that you can even try to draw a comparison from. I'll stand by what I said, Allen is not comparable to Stafford. I'll agree that this is the best positive comparison you can make to Allen but it isn't a particularly good one, and there are numerous negative comparisons you can point to. The historical data is pretty clear on this - QBs like Allen do not suddenly fix their ball placement in the NFL.

[Dr. Who]

14 minutes ago, sven233 said:

He's a guy that has every physical tool you dream about a QB having.  That said, I have watched a lot of him and he is slow to process the field, he's late on throws all the time (gets away with it because of his arm in college, but probably won't in the NFL), and he bails out of the pocket way too early, way too often. 

 

If you watch him, a lot of the "wow" throws he makes, which are impressive, are unnecessary in a lot of ways.  I mean, this might be a bit of a stretch, but he is a lot like Tyrod in terms of reading the field and bailing out too early.  Because he is slow through his reads, he bails out of the pocket a lot, even if there is no pressure, WAITS to see guys come open and then throws.  Taylor had the same problems having to wait to see guys come open.  Allen gets away with it more because of his arm strength, but he is not a guy that throws guys open a ton and the ball comes out real late too many times for my liking.  That is where the comparisons to Taylor ends because Allen is a superior passer for sure, but the way he reads the field, bails out early, and has to wait for guys to come open to throw many times is very concerning to me.  Give me a guy that moves around in the pocket, slides up, and steps into a throw any day over Allen.

 

Allen may turn out to be good someday because, as I said, he has every tool you look for.  But there are more things that concern me than don't and I would be much more comfortable with several other guys in this class before him.  Right now, he's behind Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield.....at least.  Maybe even Jackson.  There are much better options in this draft and I hope the Bills see it too.

I'm not against drafting him if OBD determines he is worth the risk.  I kind of like him, but this seems to me a fair, well-reasoned argument.

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I like Stafford but the problem is he's the only QB from this millennium that you can even try to draw a comparison from. I'll stand by what I said, Allen is not comparable to Stafford. I'll agree that this is the best positive comparison you can make to Allen but it isn't a particularly good one, and there are numerous negative comparisons you can point to. The historical data is pretty clear on this - QBs like Allen do not suddenly fix their ball placement in the NFL.

 

Why do you keep repeating this idea? Plenty of QBs have gotten significantly more accurate as NFLers, and Staff isn't the only example from recent years 

 

I've given multiple others in this very thread 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

I like Stafford but the problem is he's the only QB from this millennium that you can even try to draw a comparison from. I'll stand by what I said, Allen is not comparable to Stafford. I'll agree that this is the best positive comparison you can make to Allen but it isn't a particularly good one, and there are numerous negative comparisons you can point to. The historical data is pretty clear on this - QBs like Allen do not suddenly fix their ball placement in the NFL.

All I'm saying is whichever QB we take in the 1st I will talk myself into...done it before

 

There's too much value in that pick to be anything but optimistic about it imo. It's kind of a franchise-defining moment, as a fan you kind of have to get behind it is the way I see it. I just see a lot in Allen to get excited about, he's clearly not perfect.

[HappyDays]

Just now, JohnC said:

The grass is greener on the other side of the fence especially when you don't have grass. As I said in another post don't let the seeking of perfection get in the way of seeking good. The ideal usually doesn't represent reality. 

 

No QB prospect is perfect but there are certain negative traits that history shows you can't fix. Ball placement is #1. QBs don't suddenly become more accurate especially when they're now going against NFL CBs. Darnold threw too many INTs for example but his problem was bad decisions, nor accuracy. You can make better decisions with more experience. For one reason or another accuracy never really improves a lot. And accuracy isn't Allen's only flaw. He's terrible against pressure and he makes too many poor decisions.

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

All I'm saying is whichever QB we take in the 1st I will talk myself into...done it before

 

There's too much value in that pick to be anything but optimistic about it imo. It's kind of a franchise-defining moment, as a fan you kind of have to get behind it is the way I see it. I just see a lot in Allen to get excited about, he's clearly not perfect.

 

The Bills had the chance to draft Mahomes at #10 last year. No way they are now going to trade multiple 1st round picks for a very similar prospect. That would be incredibly dumb.