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In your hindsight, 2017: go all out to win, or tank?


boater

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When you see the countless posts looking to sell the estate to trade up and draft that magical "franchise" QB, -- it makes you wonder: maybe deliberate tanking would have been a wise approach to the 2017 season. (given the Watkins and Darby trades, one can argue the tank was on)

 

If the Bills tanked: we wouldn't be talking about trading multiple first rounders plus other picks/players for a shot at Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield et al. We'd be talking about which to choose with our naturally given draft choice.

 

What happened: the Bills played balls to the wall. I believe they exceeded their potential and got lucky. They made the playoffs and earned a less than mid-first round draft pick.

 

Would you have rather tanked (and pick a franchise QB without selling the farm), or made the playoffs?

 

Me? I'm glad the Bills went all-in and made the playoffs, that goes so far in building a winning culture for the future. Also I look at the Sabres suckitude and can't help but feel once you tank, it's hard to wash the stench of losing out of the locker room.

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Shoulda tanked - a streak is just silly numbers in the end.  17, 18, 19 - is there really a difference at that point?  We would be having much brighter discussions about this draft (and less bickering) if 21 was instead 04.  

Looking at it another way, most all here agree that playing for .500 for 20 years is not a smart idea - it's why we had that streak BUT yet almost all here wanted and celebrated an essentially .500 year yet again just for reasons of internal stress or depression or voodoo. . .I don't get it.  I am a very analytical sort though and not much for emotions when the logic seems clear - I expect to get crap for this post and that's fine.  Ha

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I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again...I was pro tank for the simple fact that it was the perfect time for it...first year HC and FO with a great upcoming QB class, and an extra first round pick...there were no expectations for success...the first year was your “free pass” where no one would get upset for not having success because everyone understood you have to transition into a new system.

 

The playoffs was a nice feeling and great for the city but it was fleeting...in the end, it means nothing because we are right back to where we were before the season started.  However, a potential franchise QB can bring you to several playoffs over roughly 15 years and give you hope that you could win in any year.

 

I always said to myself I want to tank first...but if we don’t tank we better make the playoffs because nothing would have been worse than missing out on both opportunities imo.

Edited by JaCrispy
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YA PLAY TO WIN THE GAME !!!!!!

 

IMHO, there is no such thing as "tanking", the phrase was coined to disguise the fact that you are a dog s**t team.

 

"tanking" didn't help the Sabers ... "tanking" didn't help the Browns

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5 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

Image result for kyle williams

 

 

Wouldn't change a thing. 

 

 

Agree, to an extent.

 

I would go all out to win, but also right now I'd be trying to figure out which defensive player to get with our only first round pick, which is OK as I would just be planning on getting a receiver later on in this draft for Watson.

 

 

Edited by dollars 2 donuts
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3 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

Image result for kyle williams

 

 

Wouldn't change a thing. 

Agreed. This was everything.

 

I grew up with a team of legends and was 18 years old the last time the Bills made the playoffs. Just as a fan removing that damn monkey was everything, I can only imagine being the organization and players. 

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10 minutes ago, nucci said:

Losing is so much fun. I'm really enjoying the Sabres right now. Why do Buffalo fans prefer losing to winning?

 

When was a this winning?  I musta missed it along the way.

 
2001 2001 NFL AFC East 4th 3 13 0     Gregg Williams
2002 2002 NFL AFC East 4th 8 8 0    
2003 2003 NFL AFC East 3rd 6 10 0    
2004 2004 NFL AFC East 3rd 9 7 0     Mike Mularkey
2005 2005 NFL AFC East 3rd 5 11 0    
2006 2006 NFL AFC East 3rd 7 9 0     Dick Jauron
2007 2007 NFL AFC East 2nd 7 9 0    
2008 2008 NFL AFC East 4th 7 9 0    
2009 2009 NFL AFC East 4th 6 10 0     Dick Jauron (3–6)
Perry Fewell (3–4)
2010 2010 NFL AFC East 4th 4 12 0     Chan Gailey
2011 2011 NFL AFC East 4th 6 10 0    
2012 2012 NFL AFC East 4th 6 10 0    
2013 2013 NFL AFC East 4th 6 10 0   Kiko Alonso(PFWA DROY) Doug Marrone
2014 2014 NFL AFC East 2nd 9 7 0    
2015 2015 NFL AFC East 3rd 8 8 0     Rex Ryan
2016 2016 NFL AFC East 3rd 7 9 0     Rex Ryan (7–8)
Anthony Lynn (0–1)
2017 2017 NFL AFC East 2nd 9 7 0
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Guest K-GunJimKelly12

What are football and sports all about?  Yes it is about winning it all, but for me it is also about those few moments where you can see something incredible happen and make you jump out of your seat.  I still watch Drury's goal in game 4 Vs. the Rangers from the playoffs 10 years ago.  The Pominville goal Vs. the Sens to clinch the series I still watch sometimes too.

 

Jumping up and down and celebrating with my brother after Tyler Boyd scored that TD is one of the happiest sports moments I have had in awhile.  I watched that play several times and videos of Bills fans celebrating even more.  For me, there is no way I would trade that moment for a high draft pick this year.  I could be dead tomorrow (I'm knocking on wood now) and what would that draft pick mean to me then?  I'll take the moment and the great feelings of the week that followed, thank you very much sir.

 

Also 17 years without the playoffs was an albatross hanging over this team and city.  That being gone is worth it alone.  It was an embarrassment to all Bills fans and I believe the way we came out of the drought and the entire country seeing how much the Bills fans care and how grateful we were to the team and Andy Dalton, make us more attractive than we would be otherwise to players who may be thinking about coming here in free agency.  

Edited by K-GunJimKelly12
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33 minutes ago, sleeby said:

Shoulda tanked - a streak is just silly numbers in the end.  17, 18, 19 - is there really a difference at that point?  We would be having much brighter discussions about this draft (and less bickering) if 21 was instead 04.  

Looking at it another way, most all here agree that playing for .500 for 20 years is not a smart idea - it's why we had that streak BUT yet almost all here wanted and celebrated an essentially .500 year yet again just for reasons of internal stress or depression or voodoo. . .I don't get it.  I am a very analytical sort though and not much for emotions when the logic seems clear - I expect to get crap for this post and that's fine.  Ha

 

Someone hated seeing the drought end. You aren't alone. 

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Not even a question play to win the game! If we tank its another 5 years of garbage on the field and a locker room that promotes a losing culture. After watching the Sabres tank it blows my mind that anyone is for another tank

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If the Bills would have flopped...

 

McD would be questioned. Kyle would retire, CB Davis and Ivory wouldn’t have signed. Pending FA would leave for sure...

 

What they did last year was build hope for the next couple seasons. Gotta get our QB though, this year is the year.

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23 minutes ago, sleeby said:

 

When was a this winning?  I musta missed it along the way.

 
2001 2001 NFL AFC East 4th 3 13 0     Gregg Williams
2002 2002 NFL AFC East 4th 8 8 0    
2003 2003 NFL AFC East 3rd 6 10 0    
2004 2004 NFL AFC East 3rd 9 7 0     Mike Mularkey
2005 2005 NFL AFC East 3rd 5 11 0    
2006 2006 NFL AFC East 3rd 7 9 0     Dick Jauron
2007 2007 NFL AFC East 2nd 7 9 0    
2008 2008 NFL AFC East 4th 7 9 0    
2009 2009 NFL AFC East 4th 6 10 0     Dick Jauron (3–6)
Perry Fewell (3–4)
2010 2010 NFL AFC East 4th 4 12 0     Chan Gailey
2011 2011 NFL AFC East 4th 6 10 0    
2012 2012 NFL AFC East 4th 6 10 0    
2013 2013 NFL AFC East 4th 6 10 0   Kiko Alonso(PFWA DROY) Doug Marrone
2014 2014 NFL AFC East 2nd 9 7 0    
2015 2015 NFL AFC East 3rd 8 8 0     Rex Ryan
2016 2016 NFL AFC East 3rd 7 9 0     Rex Ryan (7–8)
Anthony Lynn (0–1)
2017 2017 NFL AFC East 2nd 9 7 0

I never said the Bills were winners. I said I prefer winning over losing....

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Not even a question play to win the game! If we tank its another 5 years of garbage on the field and a locker room that promotes a losing culture. After watching the Sabres tank it blows my mind that anyone is for another tank

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1 minute ago, nucci said:

I never said the Bills were winners. I said I prefer winning over losing

agreed but we have been going no place by doing neither - and one cannot just decide to start winning and so that leaves losing and building as the logical choice.  2017 was a great year to have tried that.  Yes, the sabers and the browns - but also many examples of it working.  .500 is a curse.

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I am happy we made the playoffs and it was definitely climactic when the Bungholes helped us, but winning/overachieving leaves you a 7-9 or 8-8 team the next year and so on. We need to suck during good draft years, but we always win just enough to miss out on superstars. Buffalo is destine to be mediocre unless we continue the cleansing. We are drafting like the 1995 Bills and it took us 4 more years to get back to the Playoffs and we had a great core. We need to continue building up the middle on defense and offense!

 

Losing could have been what made this year exciting. Now I have expectations! I was so much happier knowing we would lose.

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Just now, sleeby said:

agreed but we have been going no place by doing neither - and one cannot just decide to start winning and so that leaves losing and building as the logical choice.  2017 was a great year to have tried that.  Yes, the sabers and the browns - but also many examples of it working.  .500 is a curse.

yet we made the playoffs last year. Have 5 picks in first 3 rounds to improve the team.  How about we look forward to improving and winning more instead of losing for higher picks? 

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24 minutes ago, K-GunJimKelly12 said:

What are football and sports all about?  Yes it is about winning it all, but for me it is also about those few moments where you can see something incredible happen and make you jump out of your seat.  I still watch Drury's goal in game 4 Vs. the Rangers from the playoffs 10 years ago.  The Pominville goal Vs. the Sens to clinch the series I still watch sometimes too.

 

Jumping up and down and celebrating with my brother after Tyler Boyd scored that TD is one of the happiest sports moments I have had in awhile.  I watched that play several times and videos of Bills fans celebrating even more.  For me, there is no way I would trade that moment for a high draft pick this year.  I could be dead tomorrow (I'm knocking on wood now) and what would that draft pick mean to me then?  I'll take the moment and the great feelings of the week that followed, thank you very much sir.

 

Also 17 years without the playoffs was an albatross hanging over this team and city.  That being gone is worth it alone.  It was an embarrassment to all Bills fans and I believe the way we came out of the drought and the entire country seeing how much the Bills fans care and how grateful we were to the team and Andy Dalton, make us more attractive than we would be otherwise to players who may be thinking about coming here in free agency.  

 

Well said.

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6 minutes ago, sleeby said:

agreed but we have been going no place by doing neither - and one cannot just decide to start winning and so that leaves losing and building as the logical choice.  2017 was a great year to have tried that.  Yes, the sabers and the browns - but also many examples of it working.  .500 is a curse.

 

Name three ... and the Colts getting Luck doesn't count ... they were a play-off team before Manning got hurt.

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How exciting was the end of last season? We had a family friend die of cancer shortly after the season ended. You how much joy this season, team brought him? We all felt it. We still have all these draft picks. I wouldn't trade that for anything. From believing we were tanking to a spot in the playoffs. If anyone believes that was a wasted season, I feel sorry for them. 

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13 minutes ago, macaroni said:

 

Name three ... and the Colts getting Luck doesn't count ... they were a play-off team before Manning got hurt.

The colts count - 0-16 after manning broke his neck and then moved on.

 

I am NOT the sports statistician type!  At a quick glance if one counts 4 wins as a lousy year and then building up within a three or so years to championship game else SB appearance.

 

Atl: 2013 --> 2016

Phil 2012 --->2017

Seattle 2008 --> 2013

Jax : 2012/13/14/15/16 --> 2017.  :o)

 

Seems going low is an effective plan - and looking at the bills perenial mediocrity 50-50 is not.

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Just now, sleeby said:

The colts count - 0-16 after manning broke his neck and then moved on.

 

I am NOT the sports statistician type!  At a quick glance if one counts 4 wins as a lousy year and then building up within a three or so years to championship game else SB appearance.

 

Atl: 2013 --> 2016

Phil 2012 --->2017

Seattle 2008 --> 2013

Jax : 2012/13/14/15/16 --> 2017.  :o)

 

Seems going low is an effective plan - and looking at the bills perenial mediocrity 50-50 is not.

Then go ahead and hope we lose. Most everyone else is looking forward to an exciting draft and another playoff berth. 

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1 hour ago, boater said:

When you see the countless posts looking to sell the estate to trade up and draft that magical "franchise" QB, -- it makes you wonder: maybe deliberate tanking would have been a wise approach to the 2017 season. (given the Watkins and Darby trades, one can argue the tank was on)

 

If the Bills tanked: we wouldn't be talking about trading multiple first rounders plus other picks/players for a shot at Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield et al. We'd be talking about which to choose with our naturally given draft choice.

 

What happened: the Bills played balls to the wall. I believe they exceeded their potential and got lucky. They made the playoffs and earned a less than mid-first round draft pick.

 

Would you have rather tanked (and pick a franchise QB without selling the farm), or made the playoffs?

 

Me? I'm glad the Bills went all-in and made the playoffs, that goes so far in building a winning culture for the future. Also I look at the Sabres suckitude and can't help but feel once you tank, it's hard to wash the stench of losing out of the locker room.

 

 

No question winning was more important.

 

This isn't MLB where you can control young players for a decade after you draft/sign them so there is no great incentive in tanking and trying to stack talent in the NFL.

 

Even in the unlikely event that they all pan out the salary cap robs you of a good share of your talent in short order with rookie contracts now basically all being 4 year deals(with very expensive 5th year options on 1st rounders that a lot of teams are now declining).

 

The key to sustained competitiveness is getting a franchise QB and the Bills have PLENTY of ammunition to go get their guy if they want to.    No tank job necessary.

 

Yeah,  it doesn't feel good to not have first round picks during the draft but as I've said many times in the past few months......the Bills have almost nothing to show for nearly two decades of first round picks since they passed on Drew Brees.    

 

3D White and Shaq.

 

That's it.

 

And in that time they've never just stayed put and drafted a QB in round one or traded up to select one with their first pick.    

 

Disgusting but true.   And if you can win 9 games with almost no help from 2 decades worth of mostly-early first round picks then just how important was it to not just have used EVERY first round pick in an effort to get a franchise QB?

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Balls to the walls boys. 

 

Just in the last 2 FA signings Ivory and Davis have made reference to us being a playoff team. That does help sell a franchise to free agents that would normally say Buffalo is not for them.

 

It also shows that McDermott has the team trending in the right direction. Makes it easier for FA and rookies to buy into him as a winner. Credibility goes a long way. 

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The playoff drought was a dark cloud hanging over the entire franchise. 

Every new GM, coach and player immediately had the tremendous pressure of trying to break that streak.  And now it's over.

 

Based on the estimates being thrown around, a trade-up (into the Top 5) will ultimately cost us about 3-4 early picks.  So the difference between already being in the Top 5 and needing to trade up is approximately 3 potential starters at other positions.  In the end, you are sacrificing one season of rebuilding for the joy of making the playoffs this year.  Instead of becoming a legitimate contender in 2019, you are probably looking at 2020.

 

To me, that extra year is worth it.

 

Edited by mjt328
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1 minute ago, sleeby said:

The colts count - 0-16 after manning broke his neck and then moved on.

 

I am NOT the sports statistician type!  At a quick glance if one counts 4 wins as a lousy year and then building up within a three or so years to championship game else SB appearance.

 

Atl: 2013 --> 2016

Phil 2012 --->2017

Seattle 2008 --> 2013

Jax : 2012/13/14/15/16 --> 2017.  :o)

 

Seems going low is an effective plan - and looking at the bills perenial mediocrity 50-50 is not.

 

Nooooo .... don't just look at teams with BAD years ... look at teams who were potentially "tanking". For arguments sake ... the teams who ended up as the bottom 2 per year, because if your tanking and end up any higher you are even bad at tanking.

 

2011 ... Colts 2-14 ... previous year they were 10-6, next year they were 11-5 (this year Manning had a bad neck)

              Rams 2-11

 

2012 ... Jags 2-14

               KC 2-14 ... next year they were 11-5 (fits your premise)

 

2013 ... Hou 2-14

              Wash 3-13

 

2014 ... TB 2-14

               Tenn 2-14

 

2015 ... Cleve 3-13

              Tenn 3-13

 

2016 ... Cleve 1-15

              SF 2-14

 

2017 ... Cleve 0-16

              NYG 3-13

 

IMHO ending up on the bottom of the league means you stink ... NOT ... that you are building the immediate future.

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To "tank," the strategy from the coach on down has to be to try and lose games.  Does anyone logically think that a coach will tell his team to try to lose?  He'd be at great risk for not only being fired but also not looking all that good in competing for other positions.  Individual players are not going to intentionally play poorly (unless, of course, their being bribed or are simply lazy) as it hurts their image and employability and damages their chances for pay increases and bonuses.  Teams don't tank!  

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