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Andrew Luck to Bills speculation/chatter


YoloinOhio

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While i cant see this going down, McDaniels and Irsay have the #3 pick. They have their choice of pretty much any QB in this draft since I dont see the Giants taking a QB at 2. 

 

For Luck we would have to give up our 2 first round picks and probably another 2nd round pick or so. That would give McDaniels a boatload of equity to start his career at Indy. 

 

I just dont see it though. 

 

Why not just keep our picks and throw money at Cousins. Thats what i would do. 

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3 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Just saw that.... that’s always the case, I guess. What seems absurd today will eventually be a deal. These guys now get generational wealth. I bet some people thought we gave Jack Kemp too many peanuts at some point. 

 

....ok Augie, give it your best shot......Luck seems to be an attractive deal, but do you realistically see this gang surrendering mega draft capital for one player with so many other holes to fill?...I'll hang up and wait for your response..................

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11 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...agree.....and I think the ONLY way you could ever pull a deal off is if Irsay is HEAVILY sedated (......shouldn't be a problem then).....................

 

Reminds me of what my grandmother always told me: It takes 2 hundred mg of oxycodone to tango. 

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3 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

....ok Augie, give it your best shot......Luck seems to be an attractive deal, but do you realistically see this gang surrendering mega draft capital for one player with so many other holes to fill?...I'll hang up and wait for your response..................

 

Yes, if healthy I’d give up three first round picks for a 28 year old Franchise QB. Throw in a Crippled Cordy if you have to. Once you have the QB you have a chance. I know he has detractors, but he’s been surrounded mostly by hot garbage. 

 

I think they know that, and I think they’d do it. Or maybe I’m just hoping...

 

We can play the trade back game to get more picks to fill holes, then hope we have the scouts to kill it in a few consecutive drafts. Isn’t that supposedly why we stockpiled the picks? We got one #1 for free and still got Tre. Think of it as two #1’s for a franchise QB. Heck yes, I’d do it. How long have we been waiting? 

 

 

That “one player” is not a RT. 

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2 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Yes, if healthy I’d give up three first round picks for a 28 year old Franchise QB. Throw in a Crippled Cordy if you have to. Once you have the QB you have a chance. I know he has detractors, but he’s been surrounded mostly by hot garbage. 

 

I think they know that, and I think they’d do it. Or maybe I’m just hoping...

 

We can play the trade back game to get more picks to fill holes, then hope we have the scouts to kill it in a few consecutive drafts. Isn’t that supposedly why we stockpiled the picks? We got one #1 for free and still got Tre. Think of it as two #1’s for a franchise QB. Heck yes, I’d do it. How long have we been waiting? 

 

 

That “one player” is not a RT. 

 

....if this gang surrenders that draft capital, can we surround him with better "garbage" until subsequent draft(s) allow us to fill holes?......OR.......do we have enough cap cash to fill SOME holes to be competitive in 2018?.......interesting stretch coming up for Beane & Company........

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1 minute ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

....if this gang surrenders that draft capital, can we surround him with better "garbage" until subsequent draft(s) allow us to fill holes?......OR.......do we have enough cap cash to fill SOME holes to be competitive in 2018?.......interesting stretch coming up for Beane & Company........

 

No doubt about THAT! The QB is the hard part. I’d get that if I have a shot.  It might hurt in other areas, but that’s the price you pay unless you get very, very, very “Lucky”.  :)

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2 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

this thread needs to be closed.  every time it pops back up to the top i think something has happened.  there is zero credibility to any of this.  i think unless there is a source it should be closed as fake news

 

1key4i.jpg

 

It doesn't need to be closed. The thread title tells you what it is and you should take for what it's worth as offseason hypothetical chatter. 

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7 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

No doubt about THAT! The QB is the hard part. I’d get that if I have a shot.  It might hurt in other areas, but that’s the price you pay unless you get very, very, very “Lucky”.  :)

 

 

...better get your popcorn ready.....and PLENTY of it..............:thumbsup:

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Let me open by saying I am not opposed to acquiring a healthy Luck...but I am opposed to giving up the farm and over paying.

 

Im sorry, but I dont care what anyone says, Luck is over rated based on some of the statements around here.  I am not saying (and I dont think anyone else is either) that Luck is any way a bad QB, and everyone knows he would be a substantial upgrade to TT if...and that is a big IF...he is healthy and can stay healthy.  But at the same time, fantasy football combined with his college hype has grossly painted an over exaggerated picture of him.  

 

For instance, in 3 postseasons, he never once had more TD's than INT's and has a career 9 TD's to 12 Turnovers.  His personal performance in most categories including his QB rating is substantially lower in his career postseason compared to his career regular season.

 

Here are some of the reasons I do not want to over pay or mortgage the future to acquire him:

  1. He has 118 combine Interceptions and Fumbles in just 82 career regular and postseason games.  He is not good a protecting the ball despite having solid to good stable of options to throw to most of his career.  He has had TY, decent other WR's and solid groups of TE's his career.
  2. In 2015, Hasselbeck was 5-3 with the same roster that Luck went 2-6 with.
  3. He hasn't sniffed the playoffs in 3 years.  
  4. He cant stay healthy and plays a style that makes him vulnerable to more frequent and bigger hits.
  5. His serious injury is to his throwing arm and might be something that lingers over his career.
  6. His contract is big (although not quite as bad after Carr, Stafford, etc).
  7. His best years came when his division was weak and piled on all regular season with a softer schedule, then went on to play substantially worse in those post seasons against better competition.  

AGAIN...he is by no means a bad QB and clearly an upgrade.  But his injuries are a big risk, even if cleared healthy.  His style of play is wreckless in both how he handles his body as well as he protects the ball which increases both injury and turnover risk.  His contract is large, so if you can't keep him on the field we are saddled with an anchor on moving this team forward.  

 

I think if we can get him for one of our firsts and say a player or #22 and another pick like our 3rd then I can live with that risk.  But I see people talking 3 first round picks and even more in some cases and there is just no way in hell his value is that high.  If we offered that to the Colts they would take it in a heartbeat.  

 

This is the deepest year I can remember in a long time at QB between FA and the Draft.  No team is going to give the Colts a bounty for a QB who has played one full season in 3 years and hasn't stepped on the field since 2016.  Especially one with turnover issues and a big contract.  The fan love affair due to his fantasy football stats clouts his real value.  

 

I say offer the Colts #22 and Glenn and see what happens.  Would NOT shock me at all to see the Colts trade Luck.  Everyone keeps saying McDaniels wouldn't take the job if they were going to move him, but I disagree.  I think McDaniels sees a bad roster with an injury prone QB with a bad throwing shoulder but has a chance to draft a top QB in this great QB draft while freeing up all that cap space in a Luck trade while also compiling more assets in that trade to build the roster.  

 

So I can see McDaniels being open to that.  

Edited by Alphadawg7
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56 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Even ignoring your rather ironic choice of words, you need to be careful disparaging this particular poster. 

 

My grammatical error/typo aside, (yes I should have proofread) why should I be careful?

(Serious question by the way)

 

I stand by my statement regarding his stance on Andrew Luck.

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34 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Let me open by saying I am not opposed to acquiring a healthy Luck...but I am opposed to giving up the farm and over paying.

 

Im sorry, but I dont care what anyone says, Luck is over rated based on some of the statements around here.  I am not saying (and I dont think anyone else is either) that Luck is any way a bad QB, and everyone knows he would be a substantial upgrade to TT if...and that is a big IF...he is healthy and can stay healthy.  But at the same time, fantasy football combined with his college hype has grossly painted an over exaggerated picture of him.  

 

For instance, in 3 postseasons, he never once had more TD's than INT's and has a career 9 TD's to 12 Turnovers.  His personal performance in most categories including his QB rating is substantially lower in his career postseason compared to his career regular season.

 

Here are some of the reasons I do not want to over pay or mortgage the future to acquire him:

  1. He has 118 combine Interceptions and Fumbles in just 82 career regular and postseason games.  He is not good a protecting the ball despite having solid to good stable of options to throw to most of his career.  He has had TY, decent other WR's and solid groups of TE's his career.
  2. In 2015, Hasselbeck was 5-3 with the same roster that Luck went 2-6 with.
  3. He hasn't sniffed the playoffs in 3 years.  
  4. He cant stay healthy and plays a style that makes him vulnerable to more frequent and bigger hits.
  5. His serious injury is to his throwing arm and might be something that lingers over his career.
  6. His contract is big (although not quite as bad after Carr, Stafford, etc).
  7. His best years came when his division was weak and piled on all regular season with a softer schedule, then went on to play substantially worse in those post seasons against better competition.  

AGAIN...he is by no means a bad QB and clearly an upgrade.  But his injuries are a big risk, even if cleared healthy.  His style of play is wreckless in both how he handles his body as well as he protects the ball which increases both injury and turnover risk.  His contract is large, so if you can't keep him on the field we are saddled with an anchor on moving this team forward.  

 

I think if we can get him for one of our firsts and say a player or #22 and another pick like our 3rd then I can live with that risk.  But I see people talking 3 first round picks and even more in some cases and there is just no way in hell his value is that high.  If we offered that to the Colts they would take it in a heartbeat.  

 

This is the deepest year I can remember in a long time at QB between FA and the Draft.  No team is going to give the Colts a bounty for a QB who has played one full season in 3 years and hasn't stepped on the field since 2016.  Especially one with turnover issues and a big contract.  The fan love affair due to his fantasy football stats clouts his real value.  

 

I say offer the Colts #22 and Glenn and see what happens.  Would NOT shock me at all to see the Colts trade Luck.  Everyone keeps saying McDaniels wouldn't take the job if they were going to move him, but I disagree.  I think McDaniels sees a bad roster with an injury prone QB with a bad throwing shoulder but has a chance to draft a top QB in this great QB draft while freeing up all that cap space in a Luck trade while also compiling more assets in that trade to build the roster.  

 

So I can see McDaniels being open to that.  

 

 

....the Dawg has spoken with THE perfect analysis and assessment....nice job bro.......keeping in mind that I'm an old school crustacean, I don't see this gang as riverboat gamblers with draft capital or players coming off significant injuries/surgeries...they'll take their time building through the draft and developing their own.........

Edited by OldTimeAFLGuy
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7 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

I would trade this years 2 first round picks and next years first round pick for Luck. 

I don’t think it will happen. I wish it would because it would be the pathway for the Bills to be the Saints with Brees. 

 

...never.....strictly opinion but never..............

Edited by OldTimeAFLGuy
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5 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

I would trade this years 2 first round picks and next years first round pick for Luck. 

I don’t think it will happen. I wish it would because it would be the pathway for the Bills to be the Saints with Brees. 

 

I look at the Chiefs pick almost as a freebie since we still got Tre, so I’d think of it like 2 firsts for a franchise QB....a steal. One that will never happen. I find ways to justify all kinds of things.  :)

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1 hour ago, CritMark said:

 

Quite the contrary.  Having a good team with a good QB, being bad with AWFUL QB play, and returning to a good team does not mean the whole team was inherently bad.  What it means is the team has the capacity to be at least a respectable team with a good QB.

 

I have read on here more times than I can count how if we had QB XXX we would win x # games more.  That doesn't mean the whole team was bad.  

 

Let's look at past year.  The Bills win 9 games.  If a QB of the equivalent talent of Painter is at the helm we may win maybe 3 or 4 and I'm not sure I would bet on that.  Does that mean all the rest of the players on the team went to ****? 

 

The point I was making was Luck did not take over a terrible team.  He inherited a better than average team that went through a year with awful QB play. 

 

Oh boy, ok. 

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2 hours ago, Augie said:

 

Yes, if healthy I’d give up three first round picks for a 28 year old Franchise QB. Throw in a Crippled Cordy if you have to. Once you have the QB you have a chance. I know he has detractors, but he’s been surrounded mostly by hot garbage. 

 

I think they know that, and I think they’d do it. Or maybe I’m just hoping...

 

We can play the trade back game to get more picks to fill holes, then hope we have the scouts to kill it in a few consecutive drafts. Isn’t that supposedly why we stockpiled the picks? We got one #1 for free and still got Tre. Think of it as two #1’s for a franchise QB. Heck yes, I’d do it. How long have we been waiting? 

 

 

That “one player” is not a RT. 

 

 

100%

 

luck, and tre for lattimore 21, and next years 1?

 

In a heartbeat.

Edited by NoSaint
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45 minutes ago, horned dogs said:

I knew there was a reason I had you on ignore.

You had me on ignore? Wow that's awesome, I feel honored. You are going to have a tough time in life if what I just said right there bothered you. Seems pretty mild to me

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2 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

I would trade this years 2 first round picks and next years first round pick for Luck. 

I don’t think it will happen. I wish it would because it would be the pathway for the Bills to be the Saints with Brees. 

 

I would puke.  His value is no where near worth that.  This idea that a QB with one full season in 3 years, and hasn't played since 2016 due to an injury from his throwing shoulder that might be chronic is crazy.  The Colts would take that deal in a heartbeat if someone was foolish enough to offer it.  

 

Like I said before, this is the deepest group of available QB's in a very long time between FA and the Draft.  SOOOOO many options over mortgaging the farm for a turnover prone QB who cant stay on the field and has long term injury conners to his throwing shoulder.  

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I seriously dont think Bills fans will be happy with any QB they get. No one seems to understand that the QB they want doesnt exist. Basically they want

1. A young starter who can step in Day 1 and be at his peak

2. Be better then Brady

3. Have no injury history or potential for injury

4. Will be cheap and always affordable

5. Not cost anything but a single draft pick or little cash

6. Will throw for 300 yards and only TDs

 

When was the last time there was a draft class that had more then 2-3 very good starters come from it? And in that class, how many weren't drafted in the top 10?

 

People here are actually against obtaining Andrew Luck, the last player many believe a team actually tanked in order to get, one of the last "sure thing" QB prospects to come out of the draft, there are actually some here saying he isn't good enough. If his shoulder is fine, which i'm sure it will be checked very closely by anyone interested in him and the Colts, teams would be crazy to not be all over the Colts for him if they decided to deal him.

 

The idea of the Colts moving him may not be far fetched either when you think about it. There may be some bad blood between him and the team because of how the injury was handled and he may ask to leave. But also, with Brissett being familiar to the new coach, he may be comfortable with him as a bridge QB if they can obtain one of the top Qbs in this years draft. The Bills could make it very enticing for the Colts to use their top pick on a QB, if they would get the #21 & 22 picks this year, plus maybe another pick or someone like Glenn? Having those picks could help them fill a few extra holes and get a bit of a rebuild going much quicker to turn around that team if they are willing to use next season as a rebuild year. The Bills biggest need is a good QB, and someone like Luck could make the WR they have already look much better then a highly drafted rookie. Fill the rest of the holes using the rest of the draft and a little FA and they are competing for a playoff spot again.

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13 hours ago, BillsFan2313 said:

 

Dude's a bust

 

on a bum shoulder in 2016, he threw for 4200 yards and 31 tds. Remember when he threw for 4700 yards and 40 tds? I remember telling myself "I never want that bum on my team"

I hated his AFC championship run in 2014. We can do so much better than Andrew Luck

 

:oops:

I know,  great stats. Seen him twice once against the Bills and when the game was on the line he went South. Maybe he was always stuck on bad teams but as a quarterback who made everybody around him better he just never impressed me, sorry.

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The other issue with the Luck scenario is if you trade for him at this age, you’re trading to win now. I’m not convinced the Bills are built to win “now”...I think they’ve got 2 Off-seasons - the first being this year - to actually fully correct the ship. That means you’re spending 2 years of Luck’s worth and value getting the team ready. Just food for thought...

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34 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

The other issue with the Luck scenario is if you trade for him at this age, you’re trading to win now. I’m not convinced the Bills are built to win “now”...I think they’ve got 2 Off-seasons - the first being this year - to actually fully correct the ship. That means you’re spending 2 years of Luck’s worth and value getting the team ready. Just food for thought...

 

He is 28. 4 out of the top 5 passing yard leaders this year are 35 and older. Age isn't an issue. 

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7 hours ago, CritMark said:

 

I happen to agree that Luck is a top tier talent but I am afraid the 'hapless Colts' description may be a bit of revisionist history.  In 2010 Manning led them to a 10-6 record.  Without any Qb anyone would remember in 2011 with Manning out, they were indeed awful.  Luck comes in in 2012 and restores order.

 

The whole team did not fall apart the year before luck arrived, just the QB play.  For those who forget:

 

Kerry Collins - 3 games, 49.0% completions, 2 TD/1 Int and a rating of 65.9 

 

Curtis Painter - 9 games, 54.3% completions, 5 TD/9 INT and a rating of 66.6 (that was the highest rating of his career, the other two years with very limited games 9.8 & 19.0 rating respectively)

 

Dan Orlovsky - 8 games, 63.2% completions, 6 TD/4 INT and a rating of 82.4 (Also the highest rating of his career)

 

Obviously some games w/multiple QBs but the point is, they were BAD.  This was not a perpetually bad team, just a one year bump due to QB issues.

 

 

You kinda made my point for me. Peyton Manning was also carrying the team in 2010.

 

The thing is, at least Manning had all-pro center Jeff Saturday who graded as the best linemen on the team in 2010. Saturday was still there in 2011 when the team went 2-14 because of bad QB play. They also still had RB Joseph Addai, WE Pierre Garcon, TE Dallas Clark, WR Reggie Wayne and they still went 2-14 because of bad QB play that season.

 

2012 When Luck arrived with TY Hilton in the draft WR Reggie Wayne was the only one of those guys still there for Luck. The defense was in the mid 20's and Vick Ballard was the Colts starting RB. Hilton did nothing his first year so it was all Luck and Reggie Wayne. That year the Colts were 14th in rushing attempts, 22nd in yards, 18th in TDs. 11-5 and luck carried a hapless Colts team. O line graded 31st overall, 31st in pass blocking, 31st in run blocking.

 

2013 Look at the team again and the only players on offense worth anything were Hilton and Luck. Run game and defense weren't very good and again Luck carried a pretty bad team. O-line graded as # 25th overall, 28th in pass blocking, 22nd in Run blocking. 

 

2014 the defense got a bit better-going 19th in points for and 11th in yards allowed with three players making the pro bowl. The run game still in the 20s, 22nd in yards, 24th in TD's and the passing game? #1 in the league in passing attempts, #1 in passing yards, #1 in passing TDs. O-line graded #17th overall, 21st in pass blocking, 13th in run blocking

 

2015(8-8)Luck played in 7 games-2016(8-8) Luck injured at times both years! Now fast forward to 2017 with no Andrew Luck and the team goes 4-12. They beat the 0-16 Browns. They beat the Texans with Tom Savage starting at QB. The beat the 49ers with Brian Hoyer at QB. they beat the Texans again with TJ Yates at QB.

 

The Colts were lucky they didn't face DeShaun Watson or Jimmy Garoppolo this year or perhaps they just beat the Browns and go 1-15. This is a bad, bad team with the QB Andrew Luck carrying them when he is fully healthy. The HC Pagano and GM Grigson should have been fired years ago when they failed to properly protect arguably the very best QB prospect of this decade. The Colts owner Jim Irsay is an idiot and hesitated in firing these men when he should have after the 2015 season. 

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36 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

The other issue with the Luck scenario is if you trade for him at this age, you’re trading to win now. I’m not convinced the Bills are built to win “now”...I think they’ve got 2 Off-seasons - the first being this year - to actually fully correct the ship. That means you’re spending 2 years of Luck’s worth and value getting the team ready. Just food for thought...

So why haven't they shipped off McCoy? Your also wasting McCoys time by keeping him around on a team thats not going to compete for 2 years like you believe.

 

This team isn't "rebuilding" they are retooling, which is basically a rebuild on the fly by trying to replace players on the team that don't fit and get some youth, while also trying to stay competitive and win games. getting someone like Luck, at 28 year old franchise Qb would allow them to retool by not having to start over with a QB who may or may not be a good NFL QB and will need time to develop. It allows the Bills to chose a QB in the draft to eventually replace him when that player falls into their lap, rather then forcing a move and spending alot hoping to get someone who will need to start real soon.

 

As for the arguement "If the Colts are willing to trade him, he is obviously done or injured badly", thats not necessarily true in this case. Luck may want out, the relationship with him and ownership has appeared to be strained at times and the team botched his injury costing him basically 2 seasons. But also, the Colts are in a prime spot to obtain one of the top QBs in this years draft and are in need of alot of pieces to rebuild that team, outside of luck its not great. They can speed up that rebuild taking one of the top available QBs at #3 and picking up some more good picks from a nother team for Luck who will , like the poster I quoted said, be wasting Lucks worth keeping him around for a few years while they rebuild.

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1 hour ago, BigBuff423 said:

The other issue with the Luck scenario is if you trade for him at this age, you’re trading to win now. I’m not convinced the Bills are built to win “now”...I think they’ve got 2 Off-seasons - the first being this year - to actually fully correct the ship. That means you’re spending 2 years of Luck’s worth and value getting the team ready. Just food for thought...

 

We're not trying to win now? Looked to me this year like we are. Wait 2 years? :w00t:

 

This drought thinking. We're now in the post draught era. Its about winning now.

 

Old habits die hard I guess.

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On February 1, 2018 at 2:52 PM, ShadyBillsFan said:

please noooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Why not? He's way better than any qb that could hit the FA market and you'd be very lucky if anyone in this draft turned out to be as good. It's true the Colts haven't been that good lately, but next to the Browns, they have the worst roster in the NFL. I'd  be all over that deal.

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3 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

Why not? He's way better than any qb that could hit the FA market and you'd be very lucky if anyone in this draft turned out to be as good. It's true the Colts haven't been that good lately, but next to the Browns, they have the worst roster in the NFL. I'd  be all over that deal.

 

Because no matter which QB is mentioned you will always have that dude that just writes "No Thanks" or "please nooooo" in this case (although i'm not sure if he's joking) without offering any insight at all. It's more predictable than the tides in pretty much every QB thread.

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8 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

My grammatical error/typo aside, (yes I should have proofread) why should I be careful?

(Serious question by the way)

 

I stand by my statement regarding his stance on Andrew Luck.

It is entirely fair to state your opinion on Luck. The last sentence was not required. And he is one of the long standing , respected members of this form. I don't agree with calling anyone a moron, esp posters like him. 

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