National Reporters: A Big Move Up the Board Unlikely for Bills

[billsredneck1]

sal c. has a cool article on wgr550.com showing how a trade to 5 or higher is possible while still having no.22.

 

then there are scenarios that could be dream' t up including picks and players such as taylor and glenn.

 

then again, free agency moves, ie. cousins and/or trades with a.smith, mc carron, minny x3, etc. could change the entire landscape of the draft.

 

maybe they feel good going with peterman and whatever falls to them, who knows.

 

 

it's going to be an exciting spring that's for sure.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I think we're cool with trading in front of washington or arizona, but i doubt we trade in front of denver and NYJ.  

[SaviorPeterman]

Per my report yesterday, this is true. Bills aren't breaking the bank to make a blockbuster trade and want to keep most or all of their 2018 draft picks. They would love Sam Darnold but realize it's probably a fantasy unless he somehow falls out of the top 10.

 

Definitely could seem them trying to package guys like TT and Glenn to move up though, assuming both aren't traded for mid round picks before the draft.

[billsredneck1]

if cleveland takes rosen and the giants go rb, maybe tt,  glenn, no.21 and a 2nd  gets us indy's pick

[TheFunPolice]

29 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I don't think Cousins' play will equal the salary he will command.  I prefer moving up for a cost-controlled rookie with franchise qb potential.  If you hit, you are set for fifteen years.  Of course, you may miss and Cousins' established floor is pretty good qb.  I can certainly see the logic of going that route.

 

Yeah, the money will be crazy but then again Cousins is at least a solid to pretty good starter who doesn't get hurt, which is key.

 

Think about all these young dynamic budding stars, who all got hurt this season. Wentz and Watson right at the top of the list. Take the league by storm then go out for the season. It stinks, but some guys just never seem to get hurt. Rogers is great but he breaks his collarbone every other season.

 

With Cousins you get a top 10 QB (or right around there) to put with McCoy, Benjamin and a hopefully improved Zay Jones. Draft a WR, sign a Poyer/Hyde like WR in free agency, and you have a nice offense going. If Glenn can ever get healthy he is a very good to great LT. Slide Dawkins to RT and you have bookends. Things start to get exciting.

 

Of course, I would be excited like everyone else if the Bills moved up and grabbed one of the top names in this draft. But imagine this offense:

 

QB: Cousins with "the poor man's Cousins" Peterman at backup and probably a later round rookie as well

RB: McCoy, a rookie, and a vet

WR: Benjamin, Zay, 1st round rookie, FA WR version of Poyer (solid, good contract)

TE: Clay

LT Glenn

LG Richie

C Wood

RG ** unsettled ** 

RT Dawkins

 

That's a nice offense, and they could always draft a RG or a 2nd TE as well.

 

Cousins throwing to Benjamin, Clay, Zay, and a 1st round rookie with McCoy at RB is more weapons than a LOT of offenses have.

Edited January 25, 2018 by TheFunPolice

[John from Riverside]

Honestly this is the year I would do it......I know the price would be steep....but get your qb

[billieve420]

1 hour ago, xRUSHx said:

I don't expect them to make a big move up the charts for a QB either. OBD does not hold QB in a high enough regard, new staff same idea, win now forget about later. 

 

I fully expect a QB taken later in the draft after other needs are addressed. Why? Because it is a known trend at OBD. They will either stay with the last staffs QB (the great QB guru Rex choice at QB)or find some other journeyman to try to win now with. If this staff falls to have another miracle season in 18 or 19 the next staff will come in with the exact same problems the last staffs have had since Kelly, a team with no franchise worthy QB and a team that has a bunch of needs. Wash repeat to another long playoff drought.

 

Things will not change until the owner tells a new staff before hired they need to go big on a QB and to not worry about win now as much as addressing the QB problem correctly first because without a franchise worthy QB there is no dynasty just a staff on its last leg trying to get a miracle to happen while using other teams not good enough in the most important position in football. 

 

IMO fix the QB position and the rest will fall into place with patience. Build around a QB first because by the time you get a good QB your other positions you got first are now on contract that are too expensive to keep, you need them rookies to fall in line behind a QB that is established and controlling the team, it is why NE has ran the NFL for so long, all starts with QB. Find a real talent at QB and build to win later, win now just takes us to the next staff, time to rebuild again, say goodbye to most of the talent you just spent a bunch of draft picks on. That MD pick was a wonderful pick over picking Cam. A top player for 3 years that ends up elsewhere is not a good investment but a top QB will last maybe 15 years is. Got to look long term.

 

We had no shot at Cam Newton so that makes it a moot point. Everyone knew Carolina was going to draft him # 1. So our choices were either Jake Locker or Christian Ponder and we know how they both panned out. I think the Bills like a lot of teams had Cam # 1 on their draft boards.

 

It is not just about picking a QB it is picking the right QB and having a system in place that can successfully develop one out of college. So to give up the farm to move up to draft a QB that people are saying is worse than than the top# 3 guys drafted last year should give everyone pause. 

Edited January 25, 2018 by billieve420

[Teddy KGB]

3 minutes ago, John from Hemet said:

Honestly this is the year I would do it......I know the price would be steep....but get your qb

 

Could have just taken Watson or Mahomes at 10 last year.            Bills stay failing.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Teddy KGB said:

 

Could have just taken Watson or Mahomes at 10 last year.            Bills stay failing.  

 

Why don't we see how this one turns out.  I really doubt that 4/5 qb's go in the top 10.  

[Dr. Who]

7 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

 

Yeah, the money will be crazy but then again Cousins is at least a solid to pretty good starter who doesn't get hurt, which is key.

 

Think about all these young dynamic budding stars, who all got hurt this season. Wentz and Watson right at the top of the list. Take the league by storm then go out for the season. It stinks, but some guys just never seem to get hurt. Rogers is great but he breaks his collarbone every other season.

 

With Cousins you get a top 10 QB (or right around there) to put with McCoy, Benjamin and a hopefully improved Zay Jones. Draft a WR, sign a Poyer/Hyde like WR in free agency, and you have a nice offense going. If Glenn can ever get healthy he is a very good to great LT. Slide Dawkins to RT and you have bookends. Things start to get exciting.

 

Of course, I would be excited like everyone else if the Bills moved up and grabbed one of the top names in this draft. But imagine this offense:

 

QB: Cousins with "the poor man's Cousins" Peterman at backup and probably a later round rookie as well

RB: McCoy, a rookie, and a vet

WR: Benjamin, Zay, 1st round rookie, FA WR version of Poyer (solid, good contract)

TE: Clay

LT Glenn

LG Richie

C Wood

RG ** unsettled ** 

RT Dawkins

 

That's a nice offense, and they could always draft a RG or a 2nd TE as well.

 

Cousins throwing to Benjamin, Clay, Zay, and a 1st round rookie with McCoy at RB is more weapons than a LOT of offenses have.

It's a plausible scenario.  I am not sold on Zay.  Hopefully he gets a lot better.  I don't know how much playing with injury contributed to stone hands.  Some fella was recommending giving Groy a shot at RG.  If we go this route, I hope we spend a second rounder to get Sony Michel.  I also like Mark Andrews at TE.

[jimmy10]

[Not at the table Karlos]

1 hour ago, xRUSHx said:

I don't expect them to make a big move up the charts for a QB either. OBD does not hold QB in a high enough regard, new staff same idea, win now forget about later. 

 

I fully expect a QB taken later in the draft after other needs are addressed. Why? Because it is a known trend at OBD. They will either stay with the last staffs QB (the great QB guru Rex choice at QB)or find some other journeyman to try to win now with. If this staff falls to have another miracle season in 18 or 19 the next staff will come in with the exact same problems the last staffs have had since Kelly, a team with no franchise worthy QB and a team that has a bunch of needs. Wash repeat to another long playoff drought.

 

Things will not change until the owner tells a new staff before hired they need to go big on a QB and to not worry about win now as much as addressing the QB problem correctly first because without a franchise worthy QB there is no dynasty just a staff on its last leg trying to get a miracle to happen while using other teams not good enough in the most important position in football. 

 

IMO fix the QB position and the rest will fall into place with patience. Build around a QB first because by the time you get a good QB your other positions you got first are now on contract that are too expensive to keep, you need them rookies to fall in line behind a QB that is established and controlling the team, it is why NE has ran the NFL for so long, all starts with QB. Find a real talent at QB and build to win later, win now just takes us to the next staff, time to rebuild again, say goodbye to most of the talent you just spent a bunch of draft picks on. That MD pick was a wonderful pick over picking Cam. A top player for 3 years that ends up elsewhere is not a good investment but a top QB will last maybe 15 years is. Got to look long term.

Dareus was pick no. 3, cam went no. 1.  Wasn't picking dareus over cam if we had to trade up.

[yungmack]

31 minutes ago, dneveu said:

Well if the 2 that you value are the top 2, and they are gone before you can even trade for anyone... it doesn't make sense to trade for a guy you view as the 3rd best QB in the draft.  If its true and 5 qb's go in the first like 15 picks (Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield, Allen, and rudolph/jackson) - good players will be available at 21/22. 

That's how they wound up with Losman. Couldn't get one of the top three and still traded up.

[starrymessenger]

Anything you hear this time of year you take with a grain of salt, but it's clear that the Bills have to be seriously considering what their draft would look like if they did not draft a QB in the first round. A guy or two that they really like could very well not be available even were they willing to pay the price. My sense of it is that if a player they like a lot drops to the mid-first or thereabouts they could look to trade down with say Green Bay to jump ahead of Zona, who are probably also in the market for a QB. And it goes without saying that if a guy they like is there at 21 they will likely run to the podium.

If that's accurate then who are the QBs most likely to be on the board and within range? Odds are Jackson and Rudolph. As between the two, everybody will have their own opinion (including the Bills, though we don't know what that opinion is). Many of the early mocks have both guys falling out of the first already, including Jeremiah's). JMO but if Jackson is there at 21 I feel strongly that Beane will be unable to pass on that rare a talent. To me you just don't pass on that kind of talent, even if the guy needs some work and is probably not ready to see the field until late in the year he was drafted or in the following year.

[26CornerBlitz]

1 hour ago, GG said:

How does the adage go - You can't hit a home run without taking a swing? 

 

In light of the analytics team revamp, hopefully they can do the proper analysis on the rationale to move up in the draft.   History is generally more favorable for moving up to draft QBs than for other positions

 

If there is a guy that they absolutely love and covet, I hope they'll do what it takes to get him. 

[starrymessenger]

3 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

If there is a guy that they absolutely love and covet, I hope they'll do what it takes to get him. 

 

Sure but teams at the top of the draft may well love and covet the same guy. 

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, starrymessenger said:

 

Sure but teams at the top of the draft may well love and covet the same guy. 

 

Obviously as a certain coach once said.

[NewEraBills]

1 hour ago, xRUSHx said:

Exactly how Whaley ran the team

Don't think so.  Whaley took a lot of big risks that actually set us back.  

Edited January 25, 2018 by NewEraBills

[Perry Turtle]

Moving into the top 5 is relatively easy.  Last year the Chiefs moved onto the top 10 from 27 by trading their next year's first.

 

The Bills could do the same thing. Trade into the top 10 by packaging 22 and next year's first.

 

They could then make a deal with Indy or SF by trading the top ten pick and 21  to move into top 5.

 

The bigger question is can this front office successfully identify a franchise QB?  The Redskins failed with RGIII.  The Eagles succeeded with Wentz.

 

So how successful will the current front office be in the effort to find a true franchise QB? Passing on Watson last draft doesn't inspire confidence. 

 

If they're not confident about their ability to find a franchise QB in the draft class, then just trade a 2nd and next year's 3rd for Alex Smith and use the 1st round picks to build a dominant front 7.

[xRUSHx]

9 minutes ago, NewEraBills said:

Don't think so.  Whaley took a lot of big risks that actually set us back.  

Big risk for other then QB. EJ wasn't even a big risk considering we got EJ and Kiko out of the deal. He set this team back because of his building the rest of the team over building with a QB. Trading for a top WR without having a franchise worthy QB showed exactly where he put QB value.

28 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

Dareus was pick no. 3, cam went no. 1.  Wasn't picking dareus over cam if we had to trade up.

Moving up from 3 was a cheaper move then what we have now. IMO Carolina would have thought hard about taking the trade to move to 3 with extra picks, would they have done it? Who knows but it was never in discussion because IMO MD was the target not Cam.

[26CornerBlitz]

11 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said:

Moving into the top 5 is relatively easy.  Last year the Chiefs moved onto the top 10 from 27 by trading their next year's first.

 

The Bills could do the same thing. Trade into the top 10 by packaging 22 and next year's first.

 

They could then make a deal with Indy or SF by trading the top ten pick and 21  to move into top 5.

 

The bigger question is can this front office successfully identify a franchise QB?  The Redskins failed with RGIII.  The Eagles succeeded with Wentz.

 

So how successful will the current front office be in the effort to find a true franchise QB? Passing on Watson last draft doesn't inspire confidence. 

 

If they're not confident about their ability to find a franchise QB in the draft class, then just trade a 2nd and next year's 3rd for Alex Smith and use the 1st round picks to build a dominant front 7.

 

The current front office wasn't in place for the 2017 draft. 

[BillnutinHouston]

2 hours ago, NewEraBills said:

Did Beane say they would not do it or did he simply say, "It's a high price to pay", or something along those lines? 

 

 

 

To my recollection, he said the former, not the latter.

[Wayne Arnold]

Good.

 

Kirk Cousins or bust.

 

Five picks in the first three rounds could be five spankin' new starters not even counting free agency.

 

Is it March yet?

[BillsFan4]

30 minutes ago, xRUSHx said:

 

Moving up from 3 was a cheaper move then what we have now. IMO Carolina would have thought hard about taking the trade to move to 3 with extra picks, would they have done it? Who knows but it was never in discussion because IMO MD was the target not Cam.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/bills-gm-explains-how-andrew-luck-spoiled-plan-to-draft-cam-newton/

 

Quote

Still, the Bills, five years later, sound a tad disappointed with the outcome of that draft. Because at one point, they thought they were going to snag Newton. According to Bills general manager Doug Whaley -- then the assistant GM -- Andrew Luck's decision to remain at Stanford for another season cost the Bills their chance to draft Newton.

"When we first started the draft process, we thought we'd have a good shot at Newton," Whaley told Sports Illustrated for its oral history of the 2011 draft. "[Stanford quarterback] Andrew Luck, had he come out, would have been the first pick. Denver was at No. 2, and they didn't need a QB. So we thought, 'We'll get Cam at No. 3.'"

 

 

Cam was definitely the original target...

 

I don't know if Whaley tried to move up for him or not, or if Carolina would have been willing to trade that pick. 

 

But the Bills did want Newton. 

[hemma]

National reports pffft.

 

I'm waiting for International consensus.

Where does France stand on this?

[Victory Formation]

I could see the Bills jumping up to 12 in a trade with Cinci to take Baker Mayfield. If it took one of our #1s and a #2, I could get onboard with it. 

[transplantbillsfan]

We are currently in a 3 month window where you believe very little until it actually happens.

 

Even things that "are currently happening" like Brian Hoyer being the Bills next QB last year are all things you don't believe until they actually happen.

 

So good for the national media taking Beane's words to mean exactly what he said.  I'm sure he makes sure to always say exactly what he thinks in the 3 month window between the season's end and the draft   

[Mat68]

This is the talk out of both sides of you mouth time of year.  They will not show there hand.  QB is the a top priority so if they really want a Qb they will have to go get one.  Allen, Rosen, Darnold are not going to fall to 21.  

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, transplantbillsfan said:

We are currently in a 3 month window where you believe very little until it actually happens.

 

Even things that "are currently happening" like Brian Hoyer being the Bills next QB last year are all things you don't believe until they actually happen.

 

So good for the national media taking Beane's words to mean exactly what he said.  I'm sure he makes sure to always say exactly what he thinks in the 3 month window between the season's end and the draft   

It's good practice to simply add the word 'today' to the end of any quotes coming out of Coaches of Front Office people.

[Perry Turtle]

57 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

The current front office wasn't in place for the 2017 draft. 

True, the majority of the current staff wasn't in place during the '17 draft, but McDermott was, and he was the key decision-maker at the time.

 

If McDermott wanted a QB at 10, the Bills would have drafted one.  And his passing on Watson (and maybe Mahomes) does raise questions about his approach to the QB position.

 

Maybe the new front office team will be able to influence McDermott's approach to finding a franchise QB this year, but as McDermott is still the franchise's key decision maker, there should be concerns if you want the Bills finally fix their 18 year old issues at QB in this draft.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, Perry Turtle said:

True, the majority of the current staff wasn't in place during the '17 draft, but McDermott was, and he was the key decision-maker at the time.

 

If McDermott wanted a QB at 10, the Bills would have drafted one.  And his passing on Watson (and maybe Mahomes) does raise questions about his approach to the QB position.

 

Maybe the new front office team will be able to influence McDermott's approach to finding a franchise QB this year, but as McDermott is still the franchise's key decision maker, there should be concerns if you want the Bills finally fix their 18 year old issues at QB in this draft.

 

Beane has made it clear that the final decision will be his with input from McDermott of course.

[BmarvB]

I wouldn't do it. you never know if you're going to get the next Jim Kelly or Ryan Leaf, but if one does fall down, and they can get their guy by moving up only 3-5 spots without giving up too much, then consider it

[Bflojohn78]

I Don't see something at QB being discussed and it is boldfaced, in my opinion! If the topic is literally about nearly 15 teams needing signal callers, what about positioning yourself with a talent poor team and getting a " leg up" on next year's crop? Ryan Finley might be the odds- on choice next year. Let the smoke clear, concentrate on building a ready made, bonified up and comer with the 2018 draft and let the dust fly while teams stumble all over themselves this year! The question then is positioning. Who is the likely trade partner now? I would say Indianapolis myself. Planning for 2019 is no different than the event in Dallas in April.

[2003Contenders]

I will say this: if they really do believe that Darnold or Rosen (or whomever) legitimately projects to be a franchise QB, then they should do whatever it takes to move up for him.  My guess is that will be hard to do, since so many other teams picking in the top 5 also have a real need for a QB.

 

First, I hope that if they do try hard to move up for a certain guy and are unable to make that move, then they do not panic and trade up for another QB "just because".  That is the mistake they made in 2004, when they thought they had a deal in the works to move up to Houston's spot and take Ben Roethlisberger. When Houston backed out and the Bills were unable to get in front of Pittsburgh to get Big Ben, Donahoe panicked and instead traded up for JP Losman. Uggg!

 

I also hope they are not dead-set on taking a QB in the first round even if they believe that the draft class is weak -- a la 2013 when no QB coming out that year had a first round grade and they selected EJ anyway banking on upside.

 

The world does not end if they can't land the QB they covet. There will be some guys available in the free agent market -- and it is smarter to build up the rest of the roster than significantly overpay for a questionable rookie QB.

 

Obviously the free agency period, which opens in about 6 weeks, will give us a strong clue as to what the Bills will do in the draft. Depending on whom (if anyone) they acquire and what they give up (both potentially in terms of draft picks as well as $ paid to the veteran QB).

[26CornerBlitz]

GREG MCELROY: "A LOT OF TALENT, GOOD DEPTH" (5:13)
Bills' Insider Chris Brown and ESPN College Football Analyst Greg McElroy discuss the quarterback class at the Senior Bowl in Mobile Alabama.

[LABILLBACKER]

8 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

I still think Alex Smith is the guy they will target.  I can’t see Bean selling the farm for any of these rookie QBs

I agree. It will be A Smith on a 2-3 yr deal. They might consider a Rudolph @ 21 butbut there's no way they trade up for Allen or Mayfield. Darnold and Rosen will be gone immediately. Use these picks to continue rebuilding the defense and oline.

[26CornerBlitz]

IAN RAPOPORT: "THEY COULD MOVE AROUND" (4:35)
Bills' Insider Chris Brown talks with NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport about the upcoming draft and QB options for the Bills from the Senior Bowl in Mobile Alabama.

[GunnerBill]

19 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

Cam was definitely the original target...

 

I don't know if Whaley tried to move up for him or not, or if Carolina would have been willing to trade that pick. 

 

But the Bills did want Newton. 

 

Buddy would have been the GM.  

[dave mcbride]

22 hours ago, GG said:

 

How does the adage go - You can't hit a home run without taking a swing? 

 

In light of the analytics team revamp, hopefully they can do the proper analysis on the rationale to move up in the draft.   History is generally more favorable for moving up to draft QBs than for other positions

 

Absolutely. Also, I'm not so sure Washington should have complete regret about RG3. He did, after all, have arguably the greatest season ever for a rookie qb in the nfl. If he hadn't gotten hurt and if Shanahan had remained empowered to use him as he should be used, we're possibly looking at a guy today who puts up Tyrod-like ratio numbers but multiplied by 1.5 (e.g. 25-30 passing tds and 700 rushing yards). A lot of things went wrong with him (much of it on the management front, from the terrible owner to the parents to the coaching situation), but it can't be argued that his rookie season wasn't freaking incredible. 

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Buddy would have been the GM.  

If there ever was a season for the Bills to deliberately tank, it was that one. They started out 0-8! Sadly they went 4-4 the rest of the way. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

 

If there ever was a season for the Bills to deliberately tank, it was that one. They started out 0-8! Sadly they went 4-4 the rest of the way. 

 

Agree.  Never understood that pointless rebound and why they allowed it to happen.