Jackson, Rudolph or Pass

[Lurker]

3 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

If you aren't getting one of the top two I say pass. Unless you think you are getting a Derek Carr, who everyone undervalued.  

I agree.   Forcing the QB pick gets you JP Losman and EJ Manual.   I'd rather have two stout additions at other positions and a vet FA QB than that scenario...

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Another option is to move up for Rosen and sign McCown.  Mc is a good quarterback but can't stay healthy.  He'll hopefully last at least a half season and he'll be productive.  Also, Mc will come cheap.  Step two is to bring in some offensive linemen to help protect them (and get rid of Mills, the turnstile, in that regard).

[DrDawkinstein]

5 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Eli finished at 60.8% and you can’t count his freshman year as a “year.” He threw 16 passes. He also finished at 62.4% as a senior which showed significant improvement. 

 

Vick was an average NFL QB. If it weren’t for his running ability, he wouldn’t even be discussed. As an NFL QB he had one season over 60% and that was his 11 game run with Philly. With Atlanta, he was a 53.8% passer. Abysmal.

 

Matt Ryan is an interesting case. However again, he was basically a 60% passer in college at 59.9. Career but he did have a down senior year in regards to completion %. He’s definitely bucked the stereotype albeit barely. 

 

Tom Brady was at 61.9%. That’s basically 62%. He shouldn’t even be in the conversation.

 

All of these players had much better college completion %’s than the 57% Lamar Jackson who played in a much friendlier offense.

 

 

 

1 minute ago, JaCrispy said:

I think he just meant that Rudolph has area code accuracy- which I would have to agree with.

 

 

In all fairness to accuracy stats, I spent most of 2012-2013 beating the Geno Smith drum because he was in a passing offense and had something sick like a 70% completion percentage... and look where that got me/him.

2 minutes ago, Lurker said:

I agree.   Forcing the QB pick gets you JP Losman and EJ Manual.   I'd rather have two stout additions at other positions and a vet FA QB than that scenario...

 

I'll give you that Losman was forcing the issue. But we traded down in 2013, so I cant agree we forced it.

 

And additionally, I'd say our biggest mistake was not forcing it enough in 2004, and not doing what it took to convince Houston to trade with us so we could land Rothlisberger.

 

 

[DCOrange]

I personally like Jackson as a prospect a lot; it certainly takes a certain willingness for risk though. He's an incredible athlete with great arm strength and he's a much better passer than he's given credit for. If you adjust for drops, his completion percentage is ahead of Darnold and on par with Rosen/Rudolph (Mayfield is wayyyy ahead of the pack). And despite not being a traditional pocket QB, Louisville's offense has more pro concepts in it than what was run at USC or either of the two Oklahoma schools. If you watch Lamar, you certainly see him sail some passes high, but you also see him make a lot of "NFL throws", throws into tight windows, and just some absolute dimes down the field.

 

I like Rudolph as a guy to target in the 4th round, but nothing higher than that. He just doesn't really have any strengths. His arm strength is probably below average. His ball placement is generally below average. His athleticism is below average. He doesn't really show the ability to work beyond his first read very often. He's just a middling prospect, like a slightly better Nathan Peterman from last year.

 

If Buffalo can't get one of the top 5 QBs (in my mind, Rosen, Darnold, Allen, Mayfield, and Lamar; not in that order), I wouldn't bother taking one at all until around the 4th round. There's plenty of worthy projects to take after that top 5, but they're all significantly worse prospects IMO. I don't think anyone outside of the top 5 projects as a starter in the NFL; I'd give Rudolph, Lauletta, Woodside, and Falk a snowball's chance at least, but they're far more likely to end up being backups.

[MrEpsYtown]

9 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

And additionally, I'd say our biggest mistake was not forcing it enough in 2004, and not doing what it took to convince Houston to trade with us so we could land Rothlisberger.

 

Great point! That where I am. Try like hell to get up for Rosen, Darnold. Otherwise let the board fall to us. 

[MAJBobby]

If those are my two options going Rudolph 

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

I've watched pretty much all of these QB's games for the past 2 years now, I'm not a fan of rushing QB's at all but I think Lamar Jackson in this offense that Daboll will bring can be dynamic. I've watched Jackson from a running 1st QB to this season where he stands in the pocket and goes through progressions, when Jackson does run the guy lowers his shoulder and bowls people over, I don't want my franchise guy doing that but it shows the toughness. He has a big time arm. 

[Gordio]

45 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I personally like Jackson as a prospect a lot; it certainly takes a certain willingness for risk though. He's an incredible athlete with great arm strength and he's a much better passer than he's given credit for. If you adjust for drops, his completion percentage is ahead of Darnold and on par with Rosen/Rudolph (Mayfield is wayyyy ahead of the pack). And despite not being a traditional pocket QB, Louisville's offense has more pro concepts in it than what was run at USC or either of the two Oklahoma schools. If you watch Lamar, you certainly see him sail some passes high, but you also see him make a lot of "NFL throws", throws into tight windows, and just some absolute dimes down the field.

 

I like Rudolph as a guy to target in the 4th round, but nothing higher than that. He just doesn't really have any strengths. His arm strength is probably below average. His ball placement is generally below average. His athleticism is below average. He doesn't really show the ability to work beyond his first read very often. He's just a middling prospect, like a slightly better Nathan Peterman from last year.

 

If Buffalo can't get one of the top 5 QBs (in my mind, Rosen, Darnold, Allen, Mayfield, and Lamar; not in that order), I wouldn't bother taking one at all until around the 4th round. There's plenty of worthy projects to take after that top 5, but they're all significantly worse prospects IMO. I don't think anyone outside of the top 5 projects as a starter in the NFL; I'd give Rudolph, Lauletta, Woodside, and Falk a snowball's chance at least, but they're far more likely to end up being backups.

 

 

Interesting insight on the QBs.  Much appreciated. 

 

I don't see how Rudolph gets out of the first round.  I hear the chatter about arm strength, I am no expert but I just don't see it.  I have watched 8 or 9 of his games last year & it looks like he could make all the throws.  At least to me it looks like he has a better arm than Mayfield from the games I have watched. 

[DCOrange]

10 minutes ago, Gordio said:

 

 

Interesting insight on the QBs.  Much appreciated. 

 

I don't see how Rudolph gets out of the first round.  I hear the chatter about arm strength, I am no expert but I just don't see it.  I have watched 8 or 9 of his games last year & it looks like he could make all the throws.  At least to me it looks like he has a better arm than Mayfield from the games I have watched. 

 

I think Mayfield has below average arm strength too, but his ball placement is leagues ahead of Rudolph from what I've seen. I guess we'll see what happens with Rudolph, but it honestly kinda blows my mind that there's even a discussion about him possibly going in the 1st round. I thought he was a good sleeper candidate when there were rumors that he might enter the draft last year, but he just isn't a first round prospect, especially in a class that's so deep at QB. I think it would be pretty surprising if he ever turns into a starting QB; not impossible, but surprising. Like I said, I just don't see anything with him that you can hang your hat on. I put him on the same tier as the smaller school guys like Logan Woodside and Kyle Lauletta, but even then, those two at least have very good/borderline elite ball placement. Rudolph just isn't really good at anything.

[Lofton80]

I worry about Jackson's accuracy and I also worry that his thin frame will not allow for his running like he did in college.  

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

I think Mayfield has below average arm strength too, but his ball placement is leagues ahead of Rudolph from what I've seen. I guess we'll see what happens with Rudolph, but it honestly kinda blows my mind that there's even a discussion about him possibly going in the 1st round. I thought he was a good sleeper candidate when there were rumors that he might enter the draft last year, but he just isn't a first round prospect, especially in a class that's so deep at QB. I think it would be pretty surprising if he ever turns into a starting QB; not impossible, but surprising. Like I said, I just don't see anything with him that you can hang your hat on. I put him on the same tier as the smaller school guys like Logan Woodside and Kyle Lauletta, but even then, those two at least have very good/borderline elite ball placement. Rudolph just isn't really good at anything.

Really interesting stuff!! Looking forward to hearing more of your thoughts as the draft approaches.

[DCOrange]

21 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Really interesting stuff!! Looking forward to hearing more of your thoughts as the draft approaches.

I'll hopefully be around! Never posted here before, but I've watched more of this year's QB class than probably the last 5 classes combined since I thought this was certainly the year that Buffalo would finally be aggressive in getting one.

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I'll hopefully be around! Never posted here before, but I've watched more of this year's QB class than probably the last 5 classes combined since I thought this was certainly the year that Buffalo would finally be aggressive in getting one.

Please post more!! There is always room for informed posters.

 

There are a handful of guys here that do a lot of scouting leading up to the draft and provide great info. It makes for interesting discussion because their evaluation of the prospect is so much more developed than the rest of us. I know that I’ve learned a lot about certain prospects from this board. 

[billykay]

6 hours ago, Chuck Wagon said:

Everyone is entitled to their opinion.  I just don't believe Rudolph has the arm talent to succeed in Buffalo and having guys like Washington / Ateman / Carson, I'm not sure there's a QB who did less with more than Rudolph.

I don't think there is anything wrong with his arm strength. I saw him throw effortlessly 55 yds in the air for a td, in one game. So, he isn't Elway. So what.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Give me the guy with the most upside, Lamar Jackson. 

[DCOrange]

10 minutes ago, billykay said:

I don't think there is anything wrong with his arm strength. I saw him throw effortlessly 55 yds in the air for a td, in one game. So, he isn't Elway. So what.

It's not the distance that's an issue with Rudolph; it's the velocity. He can get the passes down the field (though he has a tendency to underthrow them when he misses). But his passes float too much IMO; think of the Peterman INT against Jacksonville for example. The ball just hangs in the air too long on those throws to the perimeter.

 

I don't agree with the "nobody did less with more" take...Rudolph did throw for what, 5,000ish yards and around 40 TDs while rarely turning the ball over? That offense was insanely good this season. But I do think it's mostly to do with who he was throwing to and the scheme that he was playing in rather than Rudolph's actual skillset. Just a ton of one-read throws to wide open guys and just throwing it up for his amazing receivers to go get the ball when they weren't wide open.

[buffaloboyinATL]

4 hours ago, Bray Wyatt said:

if one of the guys we likes starts to get towards #10, i dont see any reason why we wouldnt trade one of the 1st and one of the 2nds to go up and get him

 

it would still leave us with another first round and second round pick

Pretty sure we would still need to use both firsts to get up around pick #10.

[Bray Wyatt]

52 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

Pretty sure we would still need to use both firsts to get up around pick #10.

 

What did the chiefs trade us last year? this years first and a 4th that year? Isnt that around the same spot we are trading from this year? If so, I always thought that a second this year is roughly the same as a first next year.

[BuffaloHokie13]

3 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

What did the chiefs trade us last year? this years first and a 4th that year? Isnt that around the same spot we are trading from this year? If so, I always thought that a second this year is roughly the same as a first next year.

1st, 3rd, and future 1st

 

BUF gave up #10

KC gave up #27, #91, and #22 the following year.

Edited January 18, 2018 by BuffaloHokie13

[BuffaloBillsMagic1]

Action Jackson

[Bray Wyatt]

1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

1st, 3rd, and future 1st

 

Thanks, I was already counting that first that year, and where did they come up from, 27?

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, Bray Wyatt said:

Thanks, I was already counting that first that year, and where did they come up from, 27?

Yeah. I edited after you quoted.

[Bray Wyatt]

1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Yeah. I edited after you quoted.

 

 

I appreciate that haha, so i dont see why #21, one of our seconds and perhaps a later rd pick if needed wouldnt be enough to get to #10

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, TheTruthHurts said:

Give me the guy with the most upside, Lamar Jackson. 

 

He also has the lowest downside.

 

[DrDawkinstein]

22 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

 

 

I appreciate that haha, so i dont see why #21, one of our seconds and perhaps a later rd pick if needed wouldnt be enough to get to #10

 

Here's the chart, add em up! (It's from last year but the point values havent changed in almost a decade)

 

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

 

#21 - 800pts

#22 - 780pts

 

Closest pick to 1580pts is #7 at 1500pts

Or you could package a 1st, 2nd, 3rd to get to #10. But thats a lot of picks.

[GunnerBill]

It is Rudolph for me and it isn't even that close. They are a full round apart by my grades. 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

It is Rudolph for me and it isn't even that close. They are a full round apart by my grades. 

 

This makes me feel better about my Rudolph love.

[Spiderweb]

8 hours ago, ProcessTheTrust said:

I'm just curious, does everyone who knows for sure that Jackson won't be good  - were you the same people who knew Watson wouldn't be good - or better yet, STILL think he's not that good? I get that the mechanics of a protypical QB are important, but sometimes, when an athlete is a freak and has "IT", the seemingly big issues aren't as big. Us reaching for EJ has scarred us for life because our GM/scouts didn't recognize he didn't have the "IT" factor to cover his flaws. I'm not saying Jackson will be good for sure. I'm just not convinced the reasons he will suck are going to hold up. It's not that simple.

Jackson is no Watson...

[Chuck Wagon]

12 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Here's the chart, add em up! (It's from last year but the point values havent changed in almost a decade)

 

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

 

#21 - 800pts

#22 - 780pts

 

Closest pick to 1580pts is #7 at 1500pts

Or you could package a 1st, 2nd, 3rd to get to #10. But thats a lot of picks.

 

 

Just think how different things would be if we traded with the Texans instead of Chiefs.  We could be looking at just a 2nd or even 3rd to go up from #4 and make sure we get Darnold or Rosen.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

Just think how different things would be if we traded with the Texans instead of Chiefs.  We could be looking at just a 2nd or even 3rd to go up from #4 and make sure we get Darnold or Rosen.

 

Just think how different things would be if we traded with the Texans... in 2004 and landed Rothlisberger.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

It is Rudolph for me and it isn't even that close. They are a full round apart by my grades. 

 

 

....not sure if missing the Senior Bowl due to injury may affect his stock or not....Brylcream Mel (COUGH) doesn't even have him going in the 1st (who cares?)........so how are you going to play your draft cards if he is in fact your choice?.......BTW I happen to agree based on Beane personally scouting him twice, WVU game and bowl game, his probable availability in the 20's which preserves draft capital to move up, as well as seeing him as the safe (probably unsexy) pick selection............

[DCOrange]

18 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

 

He also has the lowest downside.

 

I actually don't think his downside is very low. In the very least, he's a guy that if you just get the ball in his hands, he can be electric as a runner. The downside of guys like, for example, Mason Rudolph, is that if he doesn't improve as a passer, he's nothing. If Lamar doesn't improve as a passer, he can still be a playmaker. I actually think Lamar is one of the safest options considering how many holes all of the other QB prospects have this year.

[Luka]

8 hours ago, Gordio said:

 

 

The kid threw for nearly 14,000 yards, had a career 63% CP, 92 TDS & only 26 Ints & had 9.4 yards per attempt & 157 QBR.  He has also started every game for OSU since his sophomore year.  What more do you want him to do? 

 

If Rudolph is on the board by the time the Bills pick comes I hope they run to the podium with his name on the card. 

 

It's program bias. He came from Oklahoma State so he's automatically going to suck in most people's eyes because of Weeden. If he's a system QB then great, because it sounds like we're installing what has been on of the best offensive systems in the game for the past two decades. All he has to do is distribute the football as well as he did at Oklahoma State and we're golden.

[DrDawkinstein]

3 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I actually don't think his downside is very low. In the very least, he's a guy that if you just get the ball in his hands, he can be electric as a runner. The downside of guys like, for example, Mason Rudolph, is that if he doesn't improve as a passer, he's nothing. If Lamar doesn't improve as a passer, he can still be a playmaker. I actually think Lamar is one of the safest options considering how many holes all of the other QB prospects have this year.

 

Yeah, but picking a player based on worst-case potential is basically "playing not to lose".

 

Take your shot at the "true" QB, and if it doesnt work out, take another shot at another one in a couple years.

 

The one thing I wont fault this new FO for is taking too many QBs. It would be nice to see this franchise get serious about finding a QB for once.

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, Spiderweb said:

Jackson is no Watson...

 

Correct. I was arguably the biggest Watson advocate on this board. Jackson is not even close to him as a passer. 

9 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I actually don't think his downside is very low. In the very least, he's a guy that if you just get the ball in his hands, he can be electric as a runner. The downside of guys like, for example, Mason Rudolph, is that if he doesn't improve as a passer, he's nothing. If Lamar doesn't improve as a passer, he can still be a playmaker. I actually think Lamar is one of the safest options considering how many holes all of the other QB prospects have this year.

 

If Lamar Jackson never improves as a passer on what he is today then he cannot play Quarterback in the NFL. However well the runs he is not a good enough passer as of this moment on his 2017 tape to be an NFL starter. 

[DCOrange]

7 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Yeah, but picking a player based on worst-case potential is basically "playing not to lose".

 

Take your shot at the "true" QB, and if it doesnt work out, take another shot at another one in a couple years.

 

The one thing I wont fault this new FO for is taking too many QBs. It would be nice to see this franchise get serious about finding a QB for once.

 

I'm not picking Lamar for his downside at all. Outside of maybe Josh Allen, I think Lamar has the most upside of all the options.

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Correct. I was arguably the biggest Watson advocate on this board. Jackson is not even close to him as a passer. 

 

If Lamar Jackson never improves as a passer on what he is today then he cannot play Quarterback in the NFL. However well the runs he is not a good enough passer as of this moment on his 2017 tape to be an NFL starter. 

I'm not sure I agree, but even if so, you can find a role for him in the NFL even if it isn't at QB. But I don't think he's very far behind the other QBs in this class as a passer anyways; they all have a lot of room for improvement.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, DCOrange said:

 

I'm not sure I agree, but even if so, you can find a role for him in the NFL even if it isn't at QB. But I don't think he's very far behind the other QBs in this class as a passer anyways; they all have a lot of room for improvement.

 

You are entitled to disagree but I think he is. The positive on Jackson is that he still appears to be be on an upward curve as a passer so there is reason to believe that the Lamar Jackson you get today is not the Lamar Jackson you get forever. But as of today he is the least refined passer among the top 7 Quarterbacks that I have worked on in this class in my opinion. 

[LABILLBACKER]

25 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Yeah, but picking a player based on worst-case potential is basically "playing not to lose".

 

Take your shot at the "true" QB, and if it doesnt work out, take another shot at another one in a couple years.

 

The one thing I wont fault this new FO for is taking too many QBs. It would be nice to see this franchise get serious about finding a QB for once.

I couldn't agree more. Now is the time when we almost have to take a QB every year. I don't care what round, as good ones can be found. Keep taking chances and if the last guy in line doesn't work out (Peterman) than release him and keep looking. 

[KOKBILLS]

9 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This has been my thinking as well. It holds especially true when you add in Mike Gundy’s system.

 

Jackson to me is a little boom or bust but has developed each year as a passer. He wouldn’t be my first choice for that reason but in the scenario above he’d be my choice. 

 

I voted for Jackson, but I actually don't mind either...

 

In fact I look at all the top 6 guys about the same way...In REAL general terms of course...They all have abilities that could make them top 5 QB's in the league...And they all have issues that...if not addressed properly...will result in them never reaching their potential...

 

I don't worry much about Rudolph's arm...He can make all the throws...He needs refinement...But I don't see anything in his make-up that leads me to believe he can't do it...I don't think you can overlook his career production in College...He ran a VERY potent Passing Offense and he ran it well...

 

Jackson is so dynamic...I look at him very similarly to the way I looked at Watson last year...Not that they are the same player...because they are not...But how do you bet against that kid? I do worry a bit about his down-the-field accuracy...He was all over the place at times...But he's got the arm...And I think he'll work really hard...

 

Give me either one at #21 and I'd be thrilled...Not saying either will work out...Just saying...

[starrymessenger]

People saying Jackson needs to find another position are delusional. He has excellent pocket awareness, knows how and when to step up, has a big arm, sees the field, can read a defence and can absolutely go through progressions. He threw for like 3,700 yards last year while running for 1600.. As has been mentioned, adjusted for drops his comp % is higher than Darnold's. He's the #1 prospect IMO and 100% a QB.

He has a mechanical issue pushing off his front rather than his back foot that causes his ball to sail at times. But that's it and it will be corrected. It's not the kind of flaw that's hard to iron out. Darnold's throwing motion definitely is hard to correct and is much more serious. They tried unsuccessfully to coach it out of him. It's a big problem. 

Kiper and Cowerd don't have Jackson in their first round mock. That's ludicrous. He is more likely to be the first player off the board than to he is to drop out of round #1.