Jackson, Rudolph or Pass

[Bray Wyatt]

if one of the guys we likes starts to get towards #10, i dont see any reason why we wouldnt trade one of the 1st and one of the 2nds to go up and get him

 

it would still leave us with another first round and second round pick

[MrEpsYtown]

1 hour ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

Eli finished at 60% for his college career and was under 60% 2 of his 4 years.

 

Vick was at 56%, I'd say he was successful in the NFL.

 

Matt Ryan was under 60% for his college career.

 

Tom Brady was at 61% for his career.

 

Good stuff. I believe Carson Palmer missed the 60% mark as wel. 

[H2o]

34 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Just heard them talking about that on the Billswire podcast in regards to Josh Allen. The number is staggeringly low.

 

If you aren't accurate in college, you aren't going to be accurate in the pros.

And this has been my argument against drafting Jackson since day 1. 

[FLFan]

If Rudolf is available at 21 I would certainly take him.  I think he will probably be gone by then though.   If Mayfield falls far enough that The Bills could move to get him without giving up both first rounders, that would be my preference.

[MrEpsYtown]

Highest passing percentages of all time in college: Colt Brennan, Colt McCoy, Kellen Moore, Graham Harrell. 

 

I think the 60% rule is a bit archaic, as are the Parcells rules. The game has changed so much to really follow these as guides in my opinion. 

[offyourocker]

Watched a bunch of film on Rudolph and I pray they do not draft him.  

[buffaloboyinATL]

I voted Rudolph because I have been "researching" him lately and believe he could be developed into a pro style QB. I honestly have not looked into Jackson much because he appeared to be regressing early n the season and I stopped paying attention.

 

I am curious though, I have seen a lot of Tyrod/Geno/Wilson comparisons for Jackson, but never Cam Newton. I thought his body type was closer to Cam than the others, is there any similarity to their styles?

[CuddyDark]

If we're talking about round one it has to be Jackson.

[Chuck Wagon]

13 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Highest passing percentages of all time in college: Colt Brennan, Colt McCoy, Kellen Moore, Graham Harrell. 

 

I think the 60% rule is a bit archaic, as are the Parcells rules. The game has changed so much to really follow these as guides in my opinion. 

 

I just don't think you can use "rules" on QB prospects.  If you follow the completion percentage bible and Parcells commandments then Luke Falk is destined for Canton.

 

 

 

[Zac]

I've watched enough of Jackson to come to the conclusion that if NFL coaches can't make him into a productive NFL QB, that's going to be more on the coaches than Jackson.   Does he have some limitations, yes.  But he can do things that no other NFL QB can.  It's going to take a bit of creativity, which is something lacking in NFL circles.  

 

The #1 thing I love about Jackson is he almost never looks to run first.  He ALWAYS keeps his eyes down field and he can throw on the run.  He makes a bunch of plays every game that look Big Ben-esque to me.  

 

I think he's gone to the Cardinals before we pick anyway.   

[jrober38]

That's a hard pass. 

 

Rudolph looks like Bryce Petty with a worse arm and Jackson's learning curve will be extremely steep. 

[starrymessenger]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

That's a hard pass. 

 

Rudolph looks like Bryce Petty with a worse arm and Jackson's learning curve will be extremely steep. 

 

No. Jackson ran a pro style offence and was fully in command of it. He is better prepared to transition in that regard than a guy like Rudolph. 

[CuddyDark]

4 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

I voted Rudolph because I have been "researching" him lately and believe he could be developed into a pro style QB. I honestly have not looked into Jackson much because he appeared to be regressing early n the season and I stopped paying attention.

 

I am curious though, I have seen a lot of Tyrod/Geno/Wilson comparisons for Jackson, but never Cam Newton. I thought his body type was closer to Cam than the others, is there any similarity to their styles?

Cam is a defensive end, TE body type. Jackson isn't that. He's more like Alex Smith body type. His lower body seem thicker than Robert Griffin but people will probably compare him to RG3 most.

[BuffaloHokie13]

32 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Understood difference between "Big Board" and "Mock" for CBS?

 

How did this compare in previous years, any gouge?

All of those were based on their published big boards rather than their mock drafts.

 

Here's the QBs in the top 100 from Matt Miller's past boards, for comparison:

2018: 5 - Rosen, 7 - Darnold, 11 - Allen, 13 - Mayfield, 38 - Rudolph, 81 - Jackson, 88 - Litton

2017: 14 - Trubisky, 22 - Watson, 37 - Mahomes, 41 - Kizer, 64 - Webb, 81 - Peterman, 99 - Kaaya

2016:  5 - Goff, 9 - Wentz, 38 - Lynch, 100 - Hackenberg

2015: 1 - Winston, 11 - Mariota, 63 - Petty, 81 - Hundley

2014: 1 - Bridgewater, 12 - Manziel, 15 - Carr, 21 - Bortles, 46 - Mettenberger, 64 - Murray, 65 - Garoppolo, 82 McCarron

2013: 14 - Smith, 33 - Barkley, 49 - Nassib, 50 - Manuel, 76 - Wilson

2012: 1 - Luck, 2 - RG3, 44 - Cousins, 46 - Tannehill, 50 - Weeden, 68 - Osweiler

2011: 15 - Newton, 41 - Kaepernick, 48 - Gabbert, 66 - Taylor, 72 - Ponder

 

So this is the first time in the last 8 years at least that there have been 4 QBs in the top 32, let alone the top 13.

[Bray Wyatt]

8 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

That's a hard pass. 

 

Rudolph looks like Bryce Petty with a worse arm and Jackson's learning curve will be extremely steep. 

 

I agree with this, I dont want either of these guys

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, starrymessenger said:

 

No. Jackson ran a pro style offence and was fully in command of it. He is better prepared to transition in that regard than a guy like Rudolph. 

 

I've watched a few games of his from 2017 and he's in shotgun 100% of the time and they primarily run the zone ready. 

 

That's not a "pro style offense". 

 

His running ability, which is never as effective in the NFL as it was in college for mobile QBs, will be limited and he'll be forced to beat teams with his arm. He has the tools to do so, but his learning curve is going to be steep. 

 

If we draft him I won't be upset (we can do a lot worse). I just don't think he has a great shot of becoming a long term starter in the NFL given his small size and reliance on his running ability. Seems like a guy who is more likely than not going to be  banged up a lot. 

[CuddyDark]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

I've watched a few games of his from 2017 and he's in shotgun 100% of the time and they primarily run the zone ready. 

 

That's not a "pro style offense". 

 

His running ability, which is never as effective in the NFL as it was in college for mobile QBs, will be limited and he'll be forced to beat teams with his arm. He has the tools to do so, but his learning curve is going to be steep. 

 

If we draft him I won't be upset (we can do a lot worse). I just don't think he has a great shot of becoming a long term starter in the NFL given his small size and reliance on his running ability. Seems like a guy who is more likely than not going to be  banged up a lot. 

Honestly I don't think prostyle matters. I think the Bills will run a pistol/college style offense if they get Jackson. That offense Daboll ran with Bama would be a nice offense for Jackson.

[DJB]

I dont understand the Rudolph love. He hassle horrendous accuracy 

[CuddyDark]

2 minutes ago, DJB said:

I dont understand the Rudolph love. He hassle horrendous accuracy 

He's big. He's not TT. Bills have scouted him 3 times, with Beane. He's not TT. He plays from the pocket. He's not black, I mean TT. He has a strong arm.

Edited January 18, 2018 by CuddyDark

[Bray Wyatt]

3 minutes ago, CuddyDark said:

He's big. He's not TT. Bills have scouted him 3 times, with Beane. He's not TT. He plays from the pocket. He's not black, I mean TT. He has a strong arm.

 

I thought his arm strength was a big question mark on rudolph

[Chicken Boo]

3 hours ago, Chuck Wagon said:

Jackson.  Has been the best player in college football the last 2 years.  

 

Deshaun Watson was in college 2 years ago, so this isn't at all accurate.

 

The Bills aren't drafting major projects like Lamar Jackson.  I'm certain of it.

[CuddyDark]

Just now, Bray Wyatt said:

 

I thought his arm strength was a big question mark on rudolph

Maybe. I only watched him once or twice. Wasn't impressed.

[starrymessenger]

8 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I've watched a few games of his from 2017 and he's in shotgun 100% of the time and they primarily run the zone ready. 

 

That's not a "pro style offense". 

 

His running ability, which is never as effective in the NFL as it was in college for mobile QBs, will be limited and he'll be forced to beat teams with his arm. He has the tools to do so, but his learning curve is going to be steep. 

 

If we draft him I won't be upset (we can do a lot worse). I just don't think he has a great shot of becoming a long term starter in the NFL given his small size and reliance on his running ability. Seems like a guy who is more likely than not going to be  banged up a lot. 

 

Prior to 2017 he was always in the shotgun with pistol alignments. That changed in 2017. Petrino actually prefers a pro style over spread concepts and he wanted Jackson to show what he could do under centre, partly to improve Jackson's draft status. I don't have the % breakdown for his snaps but though he continued to take the strong majority from the gun, like many pro QBs do, He significantly increased the number dropping back, because pro QBs re sometimes required to do that.

He may not have prototypical size and he needs to fill out his frame, but with another 15 lbs he is 6'3" and 230. That's big enuf IMO. He is also pretty good at not getting squared up for big hits. Tyrod has been pretty durable all things considered and I think that the bigger Jackson might be even more so. 

[CuddyDark]

1 minute ago, starrymessenger said:

 

Prior to 2017 he was always in the shotgun with pistol alignments. That changed in 2017. Petrino actually prefers a pro style over spread concepts and he wanted Jackson to show what he could do under centre, partly to improve Jackson's draft status. I don't have the % breakdown for his snaps but though he continued to take the strong majority from the gun, like many pro QBs do, He significantly increased the number dropping back, because pro QBs re sometimes required to do that.

He may not have prototypical size and he needs to fill out his frame, but with another 15 lbs he is 6'3" and 230. That's big enuf IMO. He is also pretty good at not getting squared up for big hits. Tyrod has been pretty durable all things considered and I think that the bigger Jackson might be even more so. 

6'3 230 is a tank. He'd be Air McNair.

[DrDawkinstein]

Jackson is not an NFL QB. He'll be an ok WR, or Brad Smith type weapon.

 

Rudolph on the other hand... if he somehow falls to us at 21, it shouldnt take the Bills more than 2 seconds to sprint up to the stage and turn that card in.

 

I'd even package #21 and #22 to move up into the Top 10 to get him.

[JaCrispy]

3 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

If you aren't getting one of the top two I say pass. Unless you think you are getting a Derek Carr, who everyone undervalued.  

Starting to agree with this thinking...warming up to the idea of trading up for the Georgia LB with a 1st & 2nd rounder, then trading back with the other 1st rounder (gaining a 2nd & 3rd) and drafting Mike White...maybe get McCown on a 1/2 year rental and see what happens.  Just not sold on Rudolph or Jackson to spend a 1st on them.

Edited January 18, 2018 by JaCrispy

[CuddyDark]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Jackson is not an NFL QB. He'll be an ok WR, or Brad Smith type weapon.

 

Rudolph on the other hand... if he somehow falls to us at 21, it shouldnt take the Bills more than 2 seconds to sprint up to the stage and turn that card in.

 

I'd even package #21 and #22 to move up into the Top 10 to get him.

Rudolph will need a great senior bowl of he'll probably be on the board when they pick in the 2nd round.

[DrDawkinstein]

20 minutes ago, DJB said:

I dont understand the Rudolph love. He has horrendous accuracy 

 

False. He averages 10yds/att, was #7 in attempts across all college football, still maintained a comp % of 65%, and went over 210 passes in a row without an interception. Dude can make all the throws, even tough outs, with accuracy and power.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

I took Rudolph. After all, he did save Christmas by being the outcast that nobody wanted. 

His stats don't lie. I'd take he and Washington at 21 and 22. Washington is a beast. 

[Bray Wyatt]

2 minutes ago, CuddyDark said:

Rudolph will need a great senior bowl of he'll probably be on the board when they pick in the 2nd round.

 

He is not participating in the senior bowl now due to "injury"

 

My guess is he believes it would hurt his stock

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

False. He averages 10yds/att, was #7 in attempts across all college football, still maintained a comp % of 65%, and went over 210 passes in a row without an interception. Dude can make all the throws, even tough outs, with accuracy and power.

 

He had two receivers that bailed him out a lot with their great catch radius, he also plays in a passer friendly system.

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

I don't consider Mayfield a pocket passer either even though he's not in this discussion. We have had a mobile QB with accuracy issues for the past few years and it hit it's ceiling this year even though Tyrod didn't have a great year we made the playoffs in spite because of his lack of turnovers. Lamar has shown that he does take chances and does throw down the field unfortunately without great accuracy he'll probably be a career backup somewhere (Joe Webb). Rudolph is more of the prototypical passer that stands in the pocket and has decent accuracy from what I've watched I like his ability.

[starrymessenger]

1 minute ago, Bray Wyatt said:

 

He is not participating in the senior bowl now due to "injury"

 

My guess is he believes it would hurt his stock

 

He will have to show his arm in passing drills before the draft, combine-pro day, otherwise it will definitely hurt his status. There is a lot of tape on him but the pro evaluators absolutely want to see him perform in person close up and show if/how he makes certain throws. To me he has a good enuf arm to make the throws, he's accurate and he can throw with touch to all areas of the field. I'm not at all sure that he can make those throws that require a very strong arm, so he might be limited. 

[Bray Wyatt]

Just now, starrymessenger said:

 

He will have to show his arm in passing drills before the draft, combine-pro day, otherwise it will definitely hurt his status. There is a lot of tape on him but the pro evaluators absolutely want to see him perform in person close up and show if/how he makes certain throws. To me he has a good enuf arm to make the throws, he's accurate and he can throw with touch to all areas of the field. I'm not at all sure that he can make those throws that require a very strong arm, so he might be limited. 

 

Yep, and he needs to show how he is under center as a traditional drop back guy as well. I think they would rather showcase that in a more controlled environment like a pro day

[MrEpsYtown]

11 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

 

He is not participating in the senior bowl now due to "injury"

 

My guess is he believes it would hurt his stock

 

I think the skipping it will hurt his stock more than anything. NFL evaluators will hold it against him and it's not like he is in a position to skip the Senior Bowl. I think he's a second day pick. If he went to the Senior Bowl and played like poo he becomes a third day pick. It he plays awesome he could move up into the late first.  If he does nothing at all, he's probably a day two pick. He probably felt it wasn't worth the risk as he's probably a day 2 pick anyway. 

[Fan in Chicago]

4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This exercise assumes that the Bills will not trade up and will not have signed Cousins. They will have signed a placeholder guy in this scenario Bradford/Bridgewater/Tyrod/McCown. 

 

We have discussed a lot, the guy(s) that we want. Let’s say that the Bills stay put and the likely scenario or Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield and Allen are off the board. What should the Bills do at 21/22? Should they take Rudolph or Jackson or not draft a QB in the 1st? 

 

Asking you as I don't watch college sports. Which QB is most likely to quickly learn and execute an E-P offense?

[yungmack]

3 hours ago, Gordio said:

 

 

You could say the same thing for Darnold, Rosen, Jackson & Allen.  None of those teams had great years either & to a certain extent all those teams underachieved based on preseason projections. 

Anyone who paid attention knows Rosen was surrounded by mediocrity and that USC was hard hit with key injuries (11 starters out at one point). There were at least 3 third stringers on the O line in critical games. Even then, SC only lost 2 games. Reason? Darnold.

[Bray Wyatt]

7 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I think the skipping it will hurt his stock more than anything. NFL evaluators will hold it against him and it's not like he is in a position to skip the Senior Bowl. I think he's a second day pick. If he went to the Senior Bowl and played like poo he becomes a third day pick. It he plays awesome he could move up into the late first.  If he does nothing at all, he's probably a day two pick. He probably felt it wasn't worth the risk as he's probably a day 2 pick anyway. 

 

I think this is a fair assessment, and I wouldnt hate rudolph in the second, just dont want him in the 1st

[Jay_Fixit]

2 hours ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

Eli finished at 60% for his college career and was under 60% 2 of his 4 years.

 

Vick was at 56%, I'd say he was successful in the NFL.

 

Matt Ryan was under 60% for his college career.

 

Tom Brady was at 61% for his career.

 

Eli finished at 60.8% and you can’t count his freshman year as a “year.” He threw 16 passes. He also finished at 62.4% as a senior which showed significant improvement. 

 

Vick was an average NFL QB. If it weren’t for his running ability, he wouldn’t even be discussed. As an NFL QB he had one season over 60% and that was his 11 game run with Philly. With Atlanta, he was a 53.8% passer. Abysmal.

 

Matt Ryan is an interesting case. However again, he was basically a 60% passer in college at 59.9. Career but he did have a down senior year in regards to completion %. He’s definitely bucked the stereotype albeit barely. 

 

Tom Brady was at 61.9%. That’s basically 62%. He shouldn’t even be in the conversation.

 

All of these players had much better college completion %’s than the 57% Lamar Jackson who played in a much friendlier offense.

 

 

[ndirish1978]

4 hours ago, Chuck Wagon said:

Jackson.  Has been the best player in college football the last 2 years.  

 

What's his completion percentage again?

[JaCrispy]

31 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

False. He averages 10yds/att, was #7 in attempts across all college football, still maintained a comp % of 65%, and went over 210 passes in a row without an interception. Dude can make all the throws, even tough outs, with accuracy and power.

I think he just meant that Rudolph has area code accuracy- which I would have to agree with.

11 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

 

I think this is a fair assessment, and I wouldnt hate rudolph in the second, just dont want him in the 1st

Agreed