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Jackson, Rudolph or Pass


Rudolph, Jackson or Neither  

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  1. 1. What would you do?



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10 hours ago, the skycap said:

Bill Polian just lambasted Jackson. Says basically he's Terrell Pryor!!

I certainly respect Bill Polian's opinion on players considering the stellar roster he was able to surround Manning with down the stretch in Indy. 

 

He's out of touch. He deserves credit for what he did during his career, but his opinion means nothing anymore. Come draft season, every talking head has one agency lining their pocket, and that means talking down the other agency's clients and being a shill for the "good guys."

7 hours ago, Estro said:

Pass. 

 

Rudolph sucks.  Weak arm, and no where near good enough accuracy to ever be a good starter in the NFL

 

If you don't like Tyrod as a QB than you're not going to like Lamar Jackson.  I do think Jackson has the ability to be a more competent passer than TT, but I don't think he'll ever be a good passer.  Avg. at best.  He misses way too many throws and doesn't have the accuracy necessary to perform at a high level in the NFL.

I think Jackson has much more natural talent than Taylor, but definitely has some accuracy issues. 

 

If my choices are Mason Rudolph and Lamar Jackson, I'm going with Jackson because he's got the bigger arm. His accuracy leaves something to be desired, to be sure, but Rudolph has arm strength concerns. And truthfully, we have watched first hand what can happen with a weaker arm in the NFL; Nate Peterman tried to force the ball into windows that were just too tight and threw a lot of INTs that he would have gotten away with at Pitt.

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JM57 ... I hear you .. but will continue to respect Polian ... as it relates to the colts (see below) I will respectfully disagree.  Given that pedigree and history beyond what he did for hte Bills and Panthers .. I will respect his take. 

 

In 1998, Polian was hired as President and decided to build through the draft as the Indianapolis Colts would have the number 1 overall pick for 1998; the Colts picked Peyton Manning. In 2002, he hired head coach Tony Dungy.

During his tenure, the Colts led the NFL with eight consecutive playoff appearances and seven consecutive seasons of 12 victories. They won seven division titles (1999, 2003-07, 09), won the 2006 Super Bowl against the Chicago Bears, and made a second Super Bowl appearance in 2010 but would lose to the New Orleans Saints under coach Jim Caldwell. From 2000-09, the Colts (115-45) set the NFL mark for most wins in a decade and nine playoff berths tied the NFL record of Dallas in the 1970s.

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12 minutes ago, JM57 said:

I certainly respect Bill Polian's opinion on players considering the stellar roster he was able to surround Manning with down the stretch in Indy. 

 

He's out of touch. He deserves credit for what he did during his career, but his opinion means nothing anymore. Come draft season, every talking head has one agency lining their pocket, and that means talking down the other agency's clients and being a shill for the "good guys."

I think Jackson has much more natural talent than Taylor, but definitely has some accuracy issues. 

 

If my choices are Mason Rudolph and Lamar Jackson, I'm going with Jackson because he's got the bigger arm. His accuracy leaves something to be desired, to be sure, but Rudolph has arm strength concerns. And truthfully, we have watched first hand what can happen with a weaker arm in the NFL; Nate Peterman tried to force the ball into windows that were just too tight and threw a lot of INTs that he would have gotten away with at Pitt.

 

Good to know you'd never draft Tom Brady if you could go back in time.

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1 hour ago, WideRightRevenge said:

 

Bill Polian just trashed this last night on Mel Kipers 1.0 draft show .. they see him as a WR ala Terrell Pryor

They may be similar athletes, but Pryor was a poor passer even by college standards. Lamar is a very good passer by college standards.

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I wish Rudolph had a little more in the arm strength department but he looks to have enough to make it at the NFL level. Maybe it something he can be improve upon as a pro. Rudolph appears to be a perfect fit for Beane/McDermott as far as character and personality. Jackson concerns me for a few reasons (1) type of offense he played in at Louisville (2) Slender build and not ideal height and (3) Completion % should be higher in that offense and (4) an executive like Polian is saying Jackson should move to wr.  Like many college qbs, Jackson will have some learning to do at the next level so the Petrino offense is not a huge knock. His build concerns me. Tyrod is very athletic yet NFL defenses still are able to track him down. Jackson is quicker but LBs and DBs will find him and he will take shots (how will the slender frame hold up?). Height always concerns me unless a shorter qb shows uncanny ability to manipulate the pocket and passing lanes. Mayfield appears to have this ability, have not seen the same from Jackson. Completion % should be higher in that offense so accuracy is a concern and it is difficult to improve upon at the next level. Polian's opinion is not gospel, but he was an excellent NFL executive for a long time so his opinion should not be ignored either. If he thinks Jackson is better off as a wr, that is a strong opinion and sends up a red flag for me. Essentially, Jackson reminds me of a faster Taylor but probably not built to take too many big shots at NFL level. 

 

Rudolph shows more ability to make anticipatory throws. He has a pretty good release and can stand tall and strong in the pocket. I wish he had more mobility and a bit more velocity on his sideline passes but if he did he would be a top 5 qb in draft. I like his intangibles and I bet the Bills do too. 

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Guest K-GunJimKelly12

Jackson is going to be a bust.  I have watched a lot of his games, especially this season and he is just not accurate.  His record and performances against teams with winning records are bad.  He puts up big stats against bad teams and has a lot of disappointments vs teams with a winning records.  He turns the ball over a lot and put up a pathetic performance in his bowl game vs Mississippi State.  He is a great athlete but not a great QB.  He is Michael Vick light.  Same elite speed and athletic ability as Vick.  Also same type of great arm strength,  but the same lack of touch as Vick and although Vick wasn't the most accurate QB, imo, Jackson is less accurate.  

 

I know Jeremy White is constantly on the hype train for this guy but he is not that good of a passer.  He may have a good year or two in the NFL but if people think he is going to be a star, I don't see it happening.

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2 hours ago, WideRightRevenge said:

 

Bill Polian just trashed this last night on Mel Kipers 1.0 draft show .. they see him as a WR ala Terrell Pryor

 

Hot takes and media traction? Or an in depth honest assessment? When he first came out with this in a panel discussion in mid-September the other participants laughed at him. I guess we will have to wait to find out who is right.

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12 hours ago, the skycap said:

Bill Polian just lambasted Jackson. Says basically he's Terrell Pryor!!

Truth hurts all the Jackson fans but I totally agree with him. 

But.

If I had no choice but to pick either Jackson or Tyrod as my QB I would 100% take Jackson.

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If they can't get Cousins, they should grab a journeyman. 

 

So many teams are going for QBs this year that the value of the 4th to 7th best draft QBs will be insanely overrated. 

 

The Bills have a lot of other holes to fill. ILB, DE, RG, RT, OLB, backup RB, C...certainly none bigger than QB, but use the picks this year to fill the holes. Don't trade them away to pick a guy with multiple question marks. The nice thing about the journeyman vets is that you know what you get.  Alex Smith: Known quantity. Sam Bradford: Known quantity. 

 

I don't want to delay the QB search another year either but with 12 teams looking for a new starting QB, this is a bad time to be looking. Next year will be better as most teams will have made their move and overpaid this year. 

 

 

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If it comes down to just those two, I would take Rudolph all day over Jackson.  Jackson concerns me on a number of fronts.  First, he's not accurate.  59% at the college level where everything SHOULD be easier than the NFL does not impress me.  His slight of frame is somewhat concerning, but he is super athletic.  Last and most important is that he doesn't strike me as much of a leader.  Right or wrong, I kind of view him as one-man team at Louisville.  I wouldn't compare him to Tyrod Taylor, but would compare him to a young Michael Vick.  I'm just not sure if I want that.

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5 minutes ago, Luxy312 said:

If it comes down to just those two, I would take Rudolph all day over Jackson.  Jackson concerns me on a number of fronts.  First, he's not accurate.  59% at the college level where everything SHOULD be easier than the NFL does not impress me.  His slight of frame is somewhat concerning, but he is super athletic.  Last and most important is that he doesn't strike me as much of a leader.  Right or wrong, I kind of view him as one-man team at Louisville.  I wouldn't compare him to Tyrod Taylor, but would compare him to a young Michael Vick.  I'm just not sure if I want that.

You're not wrong, but I'm confused why carrying a bad supporting cast to be one of the best offensive teams in the country and a bowl game appearance is viewed as a bad thing. 

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23 minutes ago, Luxy312 said:

If it comes down to just those two, I would take Rudolph all day over Jackson.  Jackson concerns me on a number of fronts.  First, he's not accurate.  59% at the college level where everything SHOULD be easier than the NFL does not impress me.  His slight of frame is somewhat concerning, but he is super athletic.  Last and most important is that he doesn't strike me as much of a leader.  Right or wrong, I kind of view him as one-man team at Louisville.  I wouldn't compare him to Tyrod Taylor, but would compare him to a young Michael Vick.  I'm just not sure if I want that.

 

Agree he compares with Vick, but favourably because his intangibles are better. Vick was legitimately dual threat. He had NFL arm talent but when he first came up in Atlanta he had a porous line and only really one guy, fat Algie Crumpler to throw to. If he has Vick's skill set without the character concerns I'm in. 

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Just now, mob16151 said:

Lamar Jackson,has Elway type upside. So I vote Jackson.

 

Agree with this.

 

Jackson has elite traits. I don't know if all the pieces will come together, but he's got the upside from his traits to be a top QB if he develops his game as a pocket passer.

 

Rudolph doesn't have any elite traits. He's not overly accurate with his ball placement, he's not mobile, and his arm is only mediocre. I don't see a guy who has a lot of upside. 

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I'd be happy with either as long as the Bills don't trade up.

 

Keep both 1st round picks...get a good/great position player with one pick...and take one of the QB's with the second.  That is my IDEAL scenario..if it is available.

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42 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

You're not wrong, but I'm confused why carrying a bad supporting cast to be one of the best offensive teams in the country and a bowl game appearance is viewed as a bad thing. 

I watched a lot of Louisville this year.  Lamar Jackson may not have a great supporting cast, but he still missed a lot of throws.  You don't even have to look at the completion percentage, just watch the tape.

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6 minutes ago, K-GunJimKelly12 said:

I watched a lot of Louisville this year.  Lamar Jackson may not have a great supporting cast, but he still missed a lot of throws.  You don't even have to look at the completion percentage, just watch the tape.

He did, but he was also impacted by drops more than any other QB in this draft class. Louisville has a garbage team this season. Taking drops into account, he completed a higher percentage of his passes than Sam Darnold while playing in a more pro-style offense and was better on his deep balls than Darnold too. Not saying he's a better passer than Darnold, but I think Lamar's passing ability tends to be grossly underrated.

 

If you watch any of this year's draft prospects, you'll see all of them miss a lot of throws. Outside of Baker Mayfield and a couple of the small school guys like Kyle Lauletta and Logan Woodside, this isn't a very good class as far as accuracy goes.

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33 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

He did, but he was also impacted by drops more than any other QB in this draft class. Louisville has a garbage team this season. Taking drops into account, he completed a higher percentage of his passes than Sam Darnold while playing in a more pro-style offense and was better on his deep balls than Darnold too. Not saying he's a better passer than Darnold, but I think Lamar's passing ability tends to be grossly underrated.

 

If you watch any of this year's draft prospects, you'll see all of them miss a lot of throws. Outside of Baker Mayfield and a couple of the small school guys like Kyle Lauletta and Logan Woodside, this isn't a very good class as far as accuracy goes.

I would counter with, although USC is a perennial power and usually fields a ton of talent, that was not the case this year and he plays in a much tougher conference, against much tougher competition.  Also I know I am in the minority, but I think Darnold is overrated and probably won't be a great one.

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1 minute ago, K-GunJimKelly12 said:

I would counter with, although USC is a perennial power and usually fields a ton of talent, that was not the case this year and he plays in a much tougher conference, against much tougher competition.  Also I know I am in the minority, but I think Darnold is overrated and probably won't be a great one.

 

USC finished as the #12 team in the country this year.

 

Darnold had a great running back, and a lot of young talent at WR that will wind up in the NFL in a year or two.


Darnold looks like the second coming of Matt Stafford. Great athletes with a big arm who get into trouble trusting their arm strength which leads to turnovers. 

 

I don't think Stafford is a great QB, but Darnold seems like a guy who should be a productive pro who starts for a while. 

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3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

USC finished as the #12 team in the country this year.

 

Darnold had a great running back, and a lot of young talent at WR that will wind up in the NFL in a year or two.


Darnold looks like the second coming of Matt Stafford. Great athletes with a big arm who get into trouble trusting their arm strength which leads to turnovers. 

 

I don't think Stafford is a great QB, but Darnold seems like a guy who should be a productive pro who starts for a while. 

That could definitely happen.  I am no expert, I just watch a lot of football.  

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2 minutes ago, K-GunJimKelly12 said:

That could definitely happen.  I am no expert, I just watch a lot of football.  

 

I'm obviously just guessing. Just pointing out that I see a ton of similarities between Darnold and Stafford. 

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Chris Trapasso @ CBS actually has Rudolph as the best QB (overall #10), followed by Jackson, with Rosen and Darnold down the list.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2018-nfl-draft-prospect-rankings-mason-rudolph-reclaims-top-qb-spot-roquan-smith-rising/

 

Who knows what our board looks like ... could be a lot closer to Trapasso's than the other 99 'experts'.

I'm guessing that the top 6 or 7 will be invites.

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51 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

He did, but he was also impacted by drops more than any other QB in this draft class.

 

Is there a basis for this statement?  It didn't jump off the tape at me the drops I have to say.  Would be interested to see some numbers if this is the case. 

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8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Is there a basis for this statement?  It didn't jump off the tape at me the drops I have to say.  Would be interested to see some numbers if this is the case. 

 

ProFootballFocus tracks Drop %:

Mayfield: 8.0%

Rosen: 7.5%

Rudolph: 6.6%

Lamar: 8.5%

Darnold: 4.3%

Allen: 4.8%

 

This is a percentage of drops compared to all attempts (with spikes and throw-aways, and I THINK balls batted at the line removed). I think it's important to note that because for example, Allen's drop % looks very low because his throws are so often off target, but I imagine if you were looking specifically at drop % of catchable balls, Allen's would be much more in line with his peers because his WRs were god awful.

 

But point being, compared to their total adjusted attempts numbers, Lamar had a higher percentage dropped than any of the other top prospects.

 

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1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

You're not wrong, but I'm confused why carrying a bad supporting cast to be one of the best offensive teams in the country and a bowl game appearance is viewed as a bad thing. 

 

His numbers are skewed by the fact that he didn't get much help.  Take away his rushing yards and what do you have?  Basically a sub-par passer.  59% this last year was his best completion percentage as a quarterback.  Basically the Louisville offense is built around him as an individual player.  There's no NFL system that's going to be anything close to that, besides, perhaps, what was being run by Dennison this last year.  NFL teams have and will be able to take away the run and make him a pocket passer.  That's not a good thing for whomever puts him under center.

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On 1/18/2018 at 8:23 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

This exercise assumes that the Bills will not trade up and will not have signed Cousins. They will have signed a placeholder guy in this scenario Bradford/Bridgewater/Tyrod/McCown. 

 

We have discussed a lot, the guy(s) that we want. Let’s say that the Bills stay put and the likely scenario or Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield and Allen are off the board. What should the Bills do at 21/22? Should they take Rudolph or Jackson or not draft a QB in the 1st? 

 

This is feels like a relatively realistic scenario. Please don’t provide ridiculous suggestions like “sign Garoppolo or Brees.” Let’s try to be realistic. 

 

 

Based upon your above scenario - I would probably wait, but Rudolph would not be horrible.  I do not want anything to do with Jackson.

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49 minutes ago, Luxy312 said:

 

His numbers are skewed by the fact that he didn't get much help.  Take away his rushing yards and what do you have?  Basically a sub-par passer.  59% this last year was his best completion percentage as a quarterback.  Basically the Louisville offense is built around him as an individual player.  There's no NFL system that's going to be anything close to that, besides, perhaps, what was being run by Dennison this last year.  NFL teams have and will be able to take away the run and make him a pocket passer.  That's not a good thing for whomever puts him under center.

Is it possible that the Louisville scheme designed like that because the skill position players and OL were...not good? If you have one superstar and 10 JAGs...you're gonna scheme that way.

 

I'm fairly sure that once Jackson is drafted, he will be the first offensive skill player from Louisville since Devante Parker. That's not great.

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6 minutes ago, End The Drought said:

Tough. Voted for Rudolph because I really don't see the arm strength concerns. Jackson is an elite college football playmaker and his speed will translate to the NFL. My question about him is how well he will be able to handle an NFL playbook 

 

Coach Petrino's playbook is pro style and complicated. Jackson was fully in command of that offence.

1 hour ago, Luxy312 said:

 

His numbers are skewed by the fact that he didn't get much help.  Take away his rushing yards and what do you have?  Basically a sub-par passer.  59% this last year was his best completion percentage as a quarterback.  Basically the Louisville offense is built around him as an individual player.  There's no NFL system that's going to be anything close to that, besides, perhaps, what was being run by Dennison this last year.  NFL teams have and will be able to take away the run and make him a pocket passer.  That's not a good thing for whomever puts him under center.

 

It's not a good thing unless he can execute from the pocket. Whether he projects as being able to do that is the question that has to be answered and that will be answered in due course. Many feel that there is plenty enuf evidence to say that he can. Nobody is drafting a guy high in the first if they see him as a run first QB with limited potential as a passer. Tyrod went in the sixth. 

Making adjustments to an offence when turning the reins over to a rook is absolutely normal as the player gets acclimated. They did it with Ben, with Brady and most notably and most recently with D. Watson. 

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1 hour ago, Luxy312 said:

 

His numbers are skewed by the fact that he didn't get much help.  Take away his rushing yards and what do you have?  Basically a sub-par passer.  59% this last year was his best completion percentage as a quarterback.  Basically the Louisville offense is built around him as an individual player.  There's no NFL system that's going to be anything close to that, besides, perhaps, what was being run by Dennison this last year.  NFL teams have and will be able to take away the run and make him a pocket passer.  That's not a good thing for whomever puts him under center.

Take away his rushing and his passing numbers alone are still on par with Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold.

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1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

 

ProFootballFocus tracks Drop %:

Mayfield: 8.0%

Rosen: 7.5%

Rudolph: 6.6%

Lamar: 8.5%

Darnold: 4.3%

Allen: 4.8%

 

This is a percentage of drops compared to all attempts (with spikes and throw-aways, and I THINK balls batted at the line removed). I think it's important to note that because for example, Allen's drop % looks very low because his throws are so often off target, but I imagine if you were looking specifically at drop % of catchable balls, Allen's would be much more in line with his peers because his WRs were god awful.

 

But point being, compared to their total adjusted attempts numbers, Lamar had a higher percentage dropped than any of the other top prospects.

 


Allen's drop percentage makes his completion percentage even more scary. 

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Just now, jrober38 said:


Allen's drop percentage makes his completion percentage even more scary. 

 

It does. It honestly blows my mind. I remember watching one of his games earlier this year where he went 9/19 but I swear like 5 or 6 of those incompletions were drops. I don't know how his drop percentage ended up being so low lol

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On 1/18/2018 at 10:47 AM, kdiggz said:

Rosen is the best pocket passer since Andrew Luck.  he is a real deal #1 pick but his white priviledge attitude rubs people the wrong way.  Darnold is also a top 15 player in this draft but has some things to work on.  Allen some would argue is a #1 type prospect just based on his rare size and arm strength.  the best arm since JeMarcuss Russel, but it takes more than a big arm to be a QB imo.  I'd put those 3 at the top.  Mayfield obviously had a great college career but if Drew Brees and Russel Wilson don't exist I don't think anyone is talking about him as a top 15 pick.  Guys like him were always typically day 2 picks.  he can be successful, it's just more of a risk than what you typically see out of top 10 players chosen.  if you are picking him that high then you are saying this is my franchise QB for the next 10 yrs.  his size is a real concern.  Drew Brees was a 2nd rounder as a result.  Russel Wilson was a 3rd rounder.  Jackson and Rudolph are day 2 type projects that will get pushed high into the 1st round because they are QB's and teams are desperate.  both may be gone before we pick.  so 6 QB's taken before we even pick is very possible!  i'd only say 3 are worth the picks though, but that's how it goes with QB's!

 

Very well said.    :thumbsup:   

 

On 1/18/2018 at 1:07 PM, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

 

In all fairness to accuracy stats, I spent most of 2012-2013 beating the Geno Smith drum because he was in a passing offense and had something sick like a 70% completion percentage... and look where that got me/him.

 

I'll give you that Losman was forcing the issue. But we traded down in 2013, so I cant agree we forced it.

 

And additionally, I'd say our biggest mistake was not forcing it enough in 2004, and not doing what it took to convince Houston to trade with us so we could land Rothlisberger.

 

 

 

Neither Losman nor Manuel should have been drafted in the first round, and most likely both would have been available in the 2nd round, and if they weren't, well, no great loss since the Bills could have taken Matt Schaub in 2004 or just passed on a QB entirely in 2013 because none of the prospects was very good.  In both drafts, the Bills were determined to draft a QB in the first round in order to sell tickets, and that's what they did.  That is absolutely "forcing the issue" whether they traded up or traded down to get one.

 

The Bills get no brownie points from me for taking a Day Two prospect in the first round even if they traded down and added an extra pick because that crappy prospect drafted in the first round prevented the team from going after better QB prospects like Bridgewater and Carr because they had Manuel ... just like they couldn't draft Rodgers in 2005 because they'd given up that first rounder for Losman.

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1 hour ago, End The Drought said:

Tough. Voted for Rudolph because I really don't see the arm strength concerns. Jackson is an elite college football playmaker and his speed will translate to the NFL. My question about him is how well he will be able to handle an NFL playbook 

Is it just me or is this question asked because he's an African America QB?

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Someone asked Chris Brown (Fan Friday) about Rudolph:

 

"Do you think Rudolph could be a target pick for bills? Keep some draft capital get him at 21?

Brian
@Bhainsy

CB: Right now Rudolph is a bit off the pace as a QB prospect from the top four (Darnold, Rosen, Allen, Mayfield), due primarily to the fact that NFL clubs don’t know what his mental processing skills are on a football field. He has all the physical tools to be a pocket passer in the NFL, but he played in a very simple offense. So calling plays, diagnosing coverages, reading progressions, taking snaps under center are all unknowns. That’s why it’s unfortunate that Rudolph won’t be practicing this week at the Senior Bowl. He could’ve begun to answer some of those questions by putting his decision making during team periods of practice on display.

I think at this point it’s very realistic that he’ll be on the board for the Bills in the early 20’s. He’s currently projected as a late one, early two by some of the more respected draft prognosticators."

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1 minute ago, hemma said:

Someone asked Chris Brown (Fan Friday) about Rudolph:

 

"Do you think Rudolph could be a target pick for bills? Keep some draft capital get him at 21?

Brian
@Bhainsy

CB: Right now Rudolph is a bit off the pace as a QB prospect from the top four (Darnold, Rosen, Allen, Mayfield), due primarily to the fact that NFL clubs don’t know what his mental processing skills are on a football field. He has all the physical tools to be a pocket passer in the NFL, but he played in a very simple offense. So calling plays, diagnosing coverages, reading progressions, taking snaps under center are all unknowns. That’s why it’s unfortunate that Rudolph won’t be practicing this week at the Senior Bowl. He could’ve begun to answer some of those questions by putting his decision making during team periods of practice on display.

I think at this point it’s very realistic that he’ll be on the board for the Bills in the early 20’s. He’s currently projected as a late one, early two by some of the more respected draft prognosticators."

 

When was Bryce Petty drafted?

 

That'll give you an idea of when Rudolph will get picked...

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