Gutless Call to Punt

[keepthefaith]

The McD punt was awful at the time.  Made it appear he was playing for a tie. 

 

Worst offensive call of the game IMO was bringing in Webb in the first half 4th and 2 or something like that and splitting Peterman out wide.  Just give the ball to McCoy there and don't try to get cute. 

Edited December 11, 2017 by keepthefaith

[Buffalo Barbarian]

4 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

If it's close that yard is impossible to spot.  We all know it's going up the middle.

 

So.

 

Most teams rush up the middle on a good day.

 

Again there wasn't enough time to punt, we were fortunate to win. If Webb doesn't make that big play to Thompson we probably end up in a tie.

[PromoTheRobot]

Well one will never know if going for it on 4th was the right play. If they fail to get it, then what happens? Colts score? They punt it back anyway, only deeper this time? It worked out. They won. On to Miami.

[dubs]

11 minutes ago, THEHARDTRUTH said:

Feel free to break it down for us John Forbes Nash.

 

 

Exactly. People quoting odds and probabilities either are refusing to articulate how they arrive there (not likely) or just blindly using some talking points they’ve heard from people or seems on espn’s gamecast. 

 

Heres what I found about that ...

 

“Win probability measures the chance that a team will win a game, given a particular combination of circumstances, including score, time remaining, field position and down and distance. Win probability is based on a model built on actual outcomes of NFL games from recent seasons that featured similar circumstances.”

 

So, basically people quoting probabilities and “math” are making the argument that the models scernarios resemble what we saw today. Haha. Not too smart of an argument if you ask me. 

[PolishDave]

1 minute ago, dubs said:

 

 

Exactly. People quoting odds and probabilities either are refusing to articulate how they arrive there (not likely) or just blindly using some talking points they’ve heard from people or seems on espn’s gamecast. 

 

Heres what I found about that ...

 

“Win probability measures the chance that a team will win a game, given a particular combination of circumstances, including score, time remaining, field position and down and distance. Win probability is based on a model built on actual outcomes of NFL games from recent seasons that featured similar circumstances.”

 

So, basically people quoting probabilities and “math” are making the argument that the models scernarios resemble what we saw today. Haha. Not too smart of an argument if you ask me. 

 

Hate to break it to you bro, but with every one of these posts you make yourself look dumber and dumber....  Just sayin..

 

And that is coming from a Polak!  

[NoSaint]

31 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

I would disagree - I think this fits right into his methodical approach. 

 

If you analyze every potential outcome - you find the punt slightly lessens your chance to win, but it also significantly lessens your chance to lose in that game.

 

Going for it and converting - increased your chance to win over punting, but getting stopped would have greatly increased your chance of losing and would have nearly eliminated a shot at winning.

 

For the season - the Bills were 2 for 10 on 4th downs and were now 0-2 in the game so based upon probability they have been converting at a below 20% clip and they had a bunch of runs for no yardage throughout the game.

 

I think if the game had been 40 to 40 and the Bills were 7 for 10 on the season and 3 for 3 in the game - maybe McDermont makes a different choice - maybe not, but his approach tells me all of those factors matter in the decision.

 

 

All that matters today was winning. Slightly lessening your chance to win is the wrong choice when a loss or tie is catastrophic in your season.

[dubs]

1 minute ago, PolishDave said:

 

Hate to break it to you bro, but with every one of these posts you make yourself look dumber and dumber....  Just sayin..

 

And that is coming from a Polak!  

 

 

Haha. Well, then it should be easy to explain. Please enlighten us with your position, please use some actual data since you seem to love saying you have it. Or at least explain how these models are applicable to the game today. Fire away. 

Edited December 11, 2017 by dubs

[BillsfanAZ]

7 minutes ago, PolishDave said:

 

Hate to break it to you bro, but with every one of these posts you make yourself look dumber and dumber....  Just sayin..

 

And that is coming from a Polak!  

Why do you say that? He is right. There are no statistical probabilities for 6" of snow, Starting LT inactive, 3rd string QB, and the game being a must win to stay in the playoff hunt. When you find those stats please let me know. And just to be clear I thought the Bills should have gone for it but I understand why they didnt. 

[Foreigner]

The OP was right, even though it turned out okay.

What about not having a backup halfback, which some of us were screaming about from game one,

or maybe you believe Tolbert is the man.

And the QB was basically a special teams guy.

[Shaw66]

I don't know if it was the right call or not.   I'd like to know the probabilities of winning on that decision.   Go for it and don't make it, you're giving the Colts the short field with the wind.   They gain 25 yards and they have a shot at a field goal.  They gain 15 yards and punt and the Bills are pinned deep.   I think if you calculate the probabilities of winning, McD may have made the right decision.  

[thunderingsquid]

Are other fan bases this irate after wins?  

 

We were on our 3rd string QB!!!

[BillsfanAZ]

9 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

 

All that matters today was winning. Slightly lessening your chance to win is the wrong choice when a loss or tie is catastrophic in your season.

Can you tell me how punting the ball instead of going for it on 4th and 1 in those conditions lessens your chances of winning with almost 4 min to go? If they go for it and dont get it, most likely the game is over since the Colts take over around the 40. Then everyone hates that decision. I wanted them to go for it but my opinion was based on me being a risk taker. When the punt team went out I thought it was him being safe. 

[NoSaint]

3 minutes ago, BillsfanAZ said:

Can you tell me how punting the ball instead of going for it on 4th and 1 in those conditions lessens your chances of winning with almost 4 min to go? If they go for it and dont get it, most likely the game is over since the Colts take over around the 40. Then everyone hates that decision. I wanted them to go for it but my opinion was based on me being a risk taker. When the punt team went out I thought it was him being safe. 

 

Unless you are arguing that you were in favor of a move that made you less likely to win, you agree with me. Throw any window dressing on it you want—- but you thought the right choice to win was go for it.

[dubs]

4 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

Unless you are arguing that you were in favor of a move that made you less likely to win, you agree with me. Throw any window dressing on it you want—- but you thought the right choice to win was go for it.

 

How are you measuring “less likely”?  Not being a jerk, just don’t know if I agree (in this very specific scenario, not generally) and that argument seems to be light on evidence to support it, despite alluding to math, probabilities, and chances constantly. 

Edited December 11, 2017 by dubs

[ExiledInIllinois]

Of course it was right choice.  And a gutsy call to punt.  He knew all you rubes would be attacking him, how much more balls do you want out of him! McD has quite a set to punt in that sitaution!

 

Punting=totally gutsy call!

 

 

[BillsfanAZ]

5 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

Unless you are arguing that you were in favor of a move that made you less likely to win, you agree with me. Throw any window dressing on it you want—- but you thought the right choice to win was go for it.

My choice is based on my personality and my job not relying on it. IF they didnt make it, it doesnt reflect badly on me. In his shoes with getting feed back from the guys playing the game, not sure I would have gone for it. 

[oldmanfan]

People are talking about the odds favoring going for it vs punting, probabilities, quoting some NY Times website and so on.  What yesterday's game and decision were would be considered as statistical outliers.  The type of game yesterday was like 8 standard deviations away from the mean.

 

i did not like the decision at the time.  With reflection, it was correct and not just because they won.  They had over 4 minutes left.  In a game where each team had had one decent drive.  The game situation clearly favored the defense.  Pinning the down in their end opened up three potential ways to win.  A safety becomes a real possibility.  Plus you stop them done there you are potentially closer to FG range or a TD.  A turnover down there, a real possibility given the conditions, also pretty much wins the game.

 

In the end the decision got them an extra 14 yards.  Not insignificant given the conditions. He trusted his players to make plays on D. They did.  And on offense.  And they did.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

7 hours ago, NoSaint said:

 

 

If if I decide to dump my retirement fund into lotto tix it’s still incredibly lucky if I win. We’re talking odds not outcome. 

Winning the lottery and the Colts punting on that day are slightly different odds. 

 

Again, on that day with that weather vs that QB, punting and going for it are about the same odds of winning. You are pretty confident you will get the ball back with over 2 minutes around your 40 yard line. 

 

On a clear day punting there is always the wrong decision IMO. 

[26CornerBlitz]

Mike Rodak ESPN Staff Writer 

Quote

Bills coach Sean McDemott said Sunday of his decision to punt on fourth-and-1 from the Colts' 41-yard line with 4:13 left in overtime, "Field position. That was big in this game with the conditions the way they were. I felt confident in our defense, [that] if we were able to pin them deep that we would get off the field and get the ball back, which we were able to do."

 

You got lucky this time Sean.  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Lol field position? 

 

It was 4th and 1 from their 39. Doesn't get much better then that in terms of field position. 

 

Bad call that worked out.

Pick 1:

 

4th and 1 at opponents 41 with 4:13 remaining 

 

1st and 10 at own 35 with 2:32 remaining (should have been over 3 minutes). 

 

Worst part about the decision to punt is using a timeout 1st. 

 

 

[oldmanfan]

14 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

And the fact that people use the snow as an excuse is a joke. 

 

The snow was every reason why he should've went for it on 4th and 1. Considering the way the game way going the chances of them getting back in Colts territory was not good.

Go back a few posts and look at what I wrote.  Yesterday's game was a huge outlier statistically.  And there were good reasons to do what they did.

 

Like any decision a coach makes it can be good or bad.  If you go for it on fourth and one and don't make it it's a bad decision.  And so on.  This one worked.

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

46 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

And the fact that people use the snow as an excuse is a joke. 

 

The snow was every reason why he should've went for it on 4th and 1. Considering the way the game way going the chances of them getting back in Colts territory was not good.

I think McDermott thought they would make the Colts go 3 and out and start the next drive inside Colts territory. Based on the weather and how the game went, I can understand that. 

 

I would have gone for it. I've always felt that the decision to go for it should be made well in advance. The faster you get the play in and line up to snap the ball the more likely your opponent is confused. 

 

 

 

 

30 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Go back a few posts and look at what I wrote.  Yesterday's game was a huge outlier statistically.  And there were good reasons to do what they did.

 

Like any decision a coach makes it can be good or bad.  If you go for it on fourth and one and don't make it it's a bad decision.  And so on.  This one worked.

 

 

My biggest issue was the wasted timeout. 

Edited December 11, 2017 by TheTruthHurts

[Billsfan1972]

29 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Go back a few posts and look at what I wrote.  Yesterday's game was a huge outlier statistically.  And there were good reasons to do what they did.

 

Like any decision a coach makes it can be good or bad.  If you go for it on fourth and one and don't make it it's a bad decision.  And so on.  This one worked.

 

 

Not at all.....  The season was on the line and the only reason it did work was that we completed a hail mary in the snow by their emergency qb.....  A fg was not a given and the Bills got their two longest plays of the day on the drive.

 

If Indy completes the pass to Hilton the Bills don't get the ball back.

 

It was beyond stupid.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Not at all.....  The season was on the line and the only reason it did work was that we completed a hail mary in the snow by their emergency qb.....  A fg was not a given and the Bills got their two longest plays of the day on the drive.

 

If Indy completes the pass to Hilton the Bills don't get the ball back.

 

It was beyond stupid.

If's really don't matter.

[Royale with Cheese]

I hated the call....still do.  Sean did get lucky but I'll take it.

[oldmanfan]

14 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Not at all.....  The season was on the line and the only reason it did work was that we completed a hail mary in the snow by their emergency qb.....  A fg was not a given and the Bills got their two longest plays of the day on the drive.

 

If Indy completes the pass to Hilton the Bills don't get the ball back.

 

It was beyond stupid.

You make the yard on fourth down then we are OK and might be able to score later.  But if we didn't game was over and the best we get is a tie. 

 

You pin them in their end and you can get a safety possibly, or you maybe get a pick and then you are right there to kick the FG and win.  Or score a TD.

 

Either decision could have been right or wrong.  Say on 4th and 1 Shady slips in the backfield.  Then it's bad.

 

The real issue is that people are trying to place normal probabilities, etc. into a game that was so much of a statistical outlier given the conditions.

 

I think if I were coach yesterday I would have ran the ball on fourth and one.  But I can also understand McD's decision.  And it worked out.

4 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I hated the call....still do.  Sean did get lucky but I'll take it.

But it's not lucky.  I think that's just a weak argument.  McD counted on his D to make a stop.  They did.  Then he counted on his offense to make a play.  And they did.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

You make the yard on fourth down then we are OK and might be able to score later.  But if we didn't game was over and the best we get is a tie. 

 

You pin them in their end and you can get a safety possibly, or you maybe get a pick and then you are right there to kick the FG and win.  Or score a TD.

 

Either decision could have been right or wrong.  Say on 4th and 1 Shady slips in the backfield.  Then it's bad.

 

The real issue is that people are trying to place normal probabilities, etc. into a game that was so much of a statistical outlier given the conditions.

 

I think if I were coach yesterday I would have ran the ball on fourth and one.  But I can also understand McD's decision.  And it worked out.

Exactly. The timeout is what angered me. 

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You make the yard on fourth down then we are OK and might be able to score later.  But if we didn't game was over and the best we get is a tie. 

 

You pin them in their end and you can get a safety possibly, or you maybe get a pick and then you are right there to kick the FG and win.  Or score a TD.

 

Either decision could have been right or wrong.  Say on 4th and 1 Shady slips in the backfield.  Then it's bad.

 

The real issue is that people are trying to place normal probabilities, etc. into a game that was so much of a statistical outlier given the conditions.

 

I think if I were coach yesterday I would have ran the ball on fourth and one.  But I can also understand McD's decision.  And it worked out.

But it's not lucky.  I think that's just a weak argument.  McD counted on his D to make a stop.  They did.  Then he counted on his offense to make a play.  And they did.

 

If the argument was to count on his offense to make a play, why can't he count on them to make a play on 4th and 1?

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said:

Exactly. The timeout is what angered me. 

 

Agreed, that was more baffling then the punt.

 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

If the argument was to count on his offense to make a play, why can't he count on them to make a play on 4th and 1?

 

I agree.  Which is why I said I would have gone for it on fourth.  But I can also understand his reasoning for what he did.  And it did work after all. 

4 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said:

Exactly. The timeout is what angered me. 

Which one?  I'm trying to remember the exact order of things there at the end.  Are you talking the one before the 2 minute warning?  That got them an extra play.

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

I agree.  Which is why I said I would have gone for it on fourth.  But I can also understand his reasoning for what he did.  And it did work after all. 

Which one?  I'm trying to remember the exact order of things there at the end.  Are you talking the one before the 2 minute warning?  That got them an extra play.

 

I felt gut punched when Schmidt trotted out there before and after the timeout.  

29 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Not at all.....  The season was on the line and the only reason it did work was that we completed a hail mary in the snow by their emergency qb.....  A fg was not a given and the Bills got their two longest plays of the day on the drive.

 

If Indy completes the pass to Hilton the Bills don't get the ball back.

 

It was beyond stupid.

 

In what world is that a hail mary?

[teef]

i don't think anyone can love that call, but in this instance it worked.  beyond that i don't care anymore. 

2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

 

In what world is that a hail mary?

you know how his mind works.

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, teef said:

i don't think anyone can love that call, but in this instance it worked.  beyond that i don't care anymore. 

you know how his mind works.

 

Ole Sammy Watkins got another 3 receptions.  That's 34 for the year.

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, TheTruthHurts said:

Winning the lottery and the Colts punting on that day are slightly different odds. 

 

Again, on that day with that weather vs that QB, punting and going for it are about the same odds of winning. You are pretty confident you will get the ball back with over 2 minutes around your 40 yard line. 

 

On a clear day punting there is always the wrong decision IMO. 

 

 

Obviously the lotto is longer odds. Which is why I used it to highlight how silly “it worked so it wasn’t lucky” sounded 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

 

Obviously the lotto is longer odds. Which is why I used it to highlight how silly “it worked so it wasn’t lucky” sounded 

 

It's not stupid. The likely scenario with the Bills punting is the Colts punt the ball back. The only question is would they go 3 and out or not. 

 

 

[hemma]

8 of Indy's 12 possessions were 5 plays or less, so for the odd conditions in this game, I'm ok with the call.

There was a good chance we'd be getting the ball back and he guessed correctly.

 

Decent weather, I think he goes for it.

[Billsfan1972]

20 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I felt gut punched when Schmidt trotted out there before and after the timeout.  

 

In what world is that a hail mary?

Sorry on  third and 8 and it is one's last chance I'd call a 35 yard pass into the wind by your emergency QB a hail mary......  

 

The real question is if 4th & 8 would he have punted?

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, Billsfan1972 said:

Sorry on  third and 8 and it is one's last chance I'd call a 35 yard pass into the wind by your emergency QB a hail mary......  

 

The real question is if 4th & 8 would he have punted?

 

Throwing to a WR singled up isn't a hail mary.  You can call it that but it would be wrong.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

23 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Ole Sammy Watkins got another 3 receptions.  That's 34 for the year.

 

#elitedecoy

 

[SWATeam]

I love the WGR statisticians treating football like baseball...  Way too many variables to accurately quantify.  What's the Math on 4th and 1 in a god damned blizzard with your third string QB?

 

With the way the punts were sticking like a lob wedge, there was a good chance that we could pin them inside the 10 and put some pressure on them.  Didn't work out that way, but I was ok with the call- in those conditions.  You obviously don't punt if you know you are only going to net 15 yards.