Gutless Call to Punt

[PolishDave]

1 minute ago, joesixpack said:

Yes, someone did

 

Ok.   That's crazy.

[Bill_with_it]

43 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

 

You literally can NOT compare the three.

 

Today was something completely outside the norm of an NFL game.

 

Shh some people evidently didnt watch the tropical october game with our number one qb in, our unhurt number one wr the hole game. 

[Rochesterfan]

3 hours ago, familykwi said:

Saying it was the right call does not make it so.  Can you justify your position other than to say "it worked since we won"?  I can justify why this was a poor choice:

 

1)  Field conditions make punting risky

2)  Last Indy offensive possession demonstrated our defense was tiring

3)  We will execute a short punt to pin them inside the 10.  IF they punt, they will get a full kick thus giving us a longer field with less time.

4)  If he believes his team will win, he believes they can earn one yard, not put them on a field needing probably 30, or more to even get into field goal range.

 

If McD expects his players to trust the process, that requires him to trust in them too.  Any success we have will not be solely his doing.  He needs to create a culture where he puts faith in his men and shows that he expects them to convert in situations like that. 

Today I found that punt choice rather arrogant on his part.  Instead of letting them win, it highlights HIS choice (good, or bad).  The risk of losing the team by almost literally punting away the season, is not undone by a miracle catch by Thompson and a great finishing run by McCoy.  There is NO WAY McDermott had those plays in the back of his mind when he chose to punt.

 

I'm not saying he cannot make this team successful, but he needs to be careful not to sabotage himself by trying to prove how smart he is.

 

 

I hate the punt, but this is not right.

 

Punting was fine all day - no one had punting issue - whereas the Bills had already failed on 4th down twice in the game. 

 

It had been nearly 30 minutes since the last colts drive - so the tiring of the D was irrelevant.

 

We punted and lost only a little distance - mostly caused by the 1st down as the two punts netted the Bills nearly 10 yards.

 

If he believes his team can win - he believes his defense can make a stop and he can get the ball back and go for the win.  If they do not get the first down - Indy has it near midfield and there is no way the Bills could win from there.  Even if they get a stop - the colts punt and the Bills have 1:00 and 80+ yards

 

 

Now those are to counter your points and I get it, but I do agree - with the playoff position and the need to win - I would of preferred to see them go for it, but choosing to punt puts faith in the side of the ball that has been better all year.  It is similar to the Rex punt against the Dolphins- except the Bills strength had been offense and he choose to go with the weaker side of the team and lost.  McDermont choose to have faith in the stronger side of his team and was rewarded with a stop and the win.

 

 

[MAJBobby]

2 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

I hate the punt, but this is not right.

 

Punting was fine all day - no one had punting issue - whereas the Bills had already failed on 4th down twice in the game. 

 

It had been nearly 30 minutes since the last colts drive - so the tiring of the D was irrelevant.

 

We punted and lost only a little distance - mostly caused by the 1st down as the two punts netted the Bills nearly 10 yards.

 

If he believes his team can win - he believes his defense can make a stop and he can get the ball back and go for the win.  If they do not get the first down - Indy has it near midfield and there is no way the Bills could win from there.  Even if they get a stop - the colts punt and the Bills have 1:00 and 80+ yards

 

 

Now those are to counter your points and I get it, but I do agree - with the playoff position and the need to win - I would of preferred to see them go for it, but choosing to punt puts faith in the side of the ball that has been better all year.  It is similar to the Rex punt against the Dolphins- except the Bills strength had been offense and he choose to go with the weaker side of the team and lost.  McDermont choose to have faith in the stronger side of his team and was rewarded with a stop and the win.

 

 

 

My question remains in this game these conditions you have More faith in a stop by punting over getting the ball back if you are stopped?

[Rochesterfan]

Just now, MAJBobby said:

 

My question remains in this game these conditions you have More faith in a stop by punting over getting the ball back if you are stopped?

 

 

For me and with the Bills position relative to the playoffs - I would of loved to see him go for it, but I get the call to punt.  He is going to be a conservative coach - we have seen that and it should be no surprise.  

 

Sometimes it it will work and sometimes it will fail - just like an aggressive coach that goes for it - sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t.

 

As a coach - you just have to be willing to stand up and answer the questions - so you better believe in what you are doing - live it and accept it.

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

That decision worked out but it was a piss poor decision that Thompson bailed him out on.

 

3rd string QB and Dennison was finally getting slightly creative on a drive we were moving the ball with some runs by that 3rd string guy. You're left with a 4th and 1, decide to punt, use one of only 2 timeouts, and still punt.

 

Loved the guts and grit and even playfulness of our players today, but McDermott and Dennison really had some bad coaching.

 

 

However, somehow we're still in this

[sullim4]

In these kinds of situations, I just ask myself, "What would Bill Belichick do?"

 

He'd have gone for it.  Obviously.

[dubs]

19 minutes ago, PolishDave said:

 

Correct.

 

Could be it was the right call to win the game.   Could be it didn't matter no matter which way he called it.

 

Still doesn't change the fact that it was the lower odds much higher risk decision.   If people think that is the smart decision there, so be it.   Logic says it isn't.

 

But I get it, some people are more emotional than logical.

 

You have no idea what you’re talking about. You’re assuming things with no facts to back it up. 

 

But since you said it I will ask. What were the odds for each decision at that moment, in those conditions, with those players, at that point in OT?  

 

McD made a call and it worked, that’s all that matters and all he should be judged on.  The rest is total conjecture based on assumptions that have no basis in fact and certainly not facts for the exact situation. 

 

 

 

 

[MAJBobby]

Just now, dubs said:

 

You have no idea what you’re talking about. You’re assuming things with no facts to back it up. 

 

But since you said it I will ask. What were the odds for each decision at that moment, in those conditions, with those players, at that point in OT?  

 

McD made a call and it worked, that’s all that matters and all he should be judged on.  The rest is total conjecture based on assumptions that have no basis in fact and certainly not facts for the exact situation. 

 

 

 

 

 

65% to win before the punt

59.8% to win after the punt

 

so Odds went down with the punt 

[ExiledInIllinois]

Just now, MAJBobby said:

 

65% to win before the punt

59.8% to win after the punt

 

so Odds went down with the punt 

Do odds factor in snow?

[PolishDave]

4 minutes ago, dubs said:

 

You have no idea what you’re talking about. You’re assuming things with no facts to back it up. 

 

But since you said it I will ask. What were the odds for each decision at that moment, in those conditions, with those players, at that point in OT?  

 

McD made a call and it worked, that’s all that matters and all he should be judged on.  The rest is total conjecture based on assumptions that have no basis in fact and certainly not facts for the exact situation. 

 

Ok genius.  

[Bill_with_it]

5 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

65% to win before the punt

59.8% to win after the punt

 

so Odds went down with the punt 

Those arent the odds for that game. Those arent based on an offense consisting of 6 plays, a 3rd string qb operating it, in 6 inches to a foot of snow, without your number one wr. Ince again you are incorrect.

[Rocbillsfan1]

2 minutes ago, Bill_with_it said:

Those arent the odds for that game. Those arent based on an offense consisting of 6 plays, a 3rd string qb operating it, in 6 inches to a foot of snow, without your number one wr. Ince again you are incorrect.

So you really liked the odds of Webb throwing the longest pass of the day with the game on the line and having to start the final drive around the Bills 35 instead of getting a yard or two on the opponets 40?  There were probably better odds of Webb throwing another terrible interception in his own end again.

[MAJBobby]

7 minutes ago, Bill_with_it said:

Those arent the odds for that game. Those arent based on an offense consisting of 6 plays, a 3rd string qb operating it, in 6 inches to a foot of snow, without your number one wr. Ince again you are incorrect.

 

Those were the REAL TIME ODDS 

 

and with the punt did the 3rd string QB still have to complete a deep pass on third down? To a WR cut by Bears?? In a foot of snow??

 

got it dont want to accept the facts

 

once again you fail to address any of those questions 

Edited December 11, 2017 by MAJBobby

[BillsFan130]

16 minutes ago, dubs said:

 

You have no idea what you’re talking about. You’re assuming things with no facts to back it up. 

 

But since you said it I will ask. What were the odds for each decision at that moment, in those conditions, with those players, at that point in OT?  

 

McD made a call and it worked, that’s all that matters and all he should be judged on.  The rest is total conjecture based on assumptions that have no basis in fact and certainly not facts for the exact situation. 

 

 

 

 

I went all in with pocket 2's in poker and the guy had pocket aces. I won even though the odds weren't on my side. Does that make my decision correct?

Edited December 11, 2017 by billsfan11

[dubs]

16 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

65% to win before the punt

59.8% to win after the punt

 

so Odds went down with the punt 

 

Hah!  Based on what exactly?

[Rocbillsfan1]

it's like people expected a 35 yard pass with the game on the line with a 3rd string QB to a backup WR in a half foot of snow. Like Duh I was totally expecting the Bills to be able to pull that off.

[MAJBobby]

Just now, dubs said:

 

Hah!  Based on what exactly?

 

Just go look at ESPN its there 

[dubs]

4 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Those were the REAL TIME ODDS 

 

and with the punt did the 3rd string QB still have to complete a deep pass on third down? To a WR cut by Bears?? In a foot of snow??

 

got it dont want to accept the facts

 

once again you fail to address any of those questions 

 

 

Again, what is the source of your odds?  

Just now, MAJBobby said:

 

Just go look at ESPN its there 

 

Oh!  Espn!  And do you know what they use to make those projections. 

[Lfod]

5 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

I went all in with pocket 2's in poker and the guy had pocket aces. I won even though the odds weren't on my side. Does that make my decision correct?

Yes it does. You can't get over excited having pocket Aces. Two Pair!

Edited December 11, 2017 by Lfod

[Kelly the Dog]

1 minute ago, dubs said:

 

 

Again, what is the source of your odds?  

makingcrapup.com

 

actually there are dumb stats like that available and espn showed that one. 

[Bill_with_it]

3 minutes ago, Rocbillsfan1 said:

So you really liked the odds of Webb throwing the longest pass of the day with the game on the line and having to start the final drive around the Bills 35 instead of getting a yard or two on the opponets 40?  There were probably better odds of Webb throwing another terrible interception in his own end again.

No i think giving the colts the ball 26 yards away from Adams confirmed distance in this weather would be really dumb. Considering they moved the ball fairly well. In this weather make them drive the full length of the field. Pin them back. More opportunities for a sack, fumble, strip, int, or just stop them as we did at their 31. Their punter averaged 38 yards. That puts us at roughly at the 31 if we just let it go. Gave Dennison a little more time to come up with a few more plays than the 5 or six that he ran. Which he clearlt did. 

[dubs]

Just now, Lfod said:

Yes it does. You can't get over excited over pocket Aces. 

 

Poker hands can project odds because of the limited number of cards. This situation was unlike anything so I’m not sure your metaphor is really applicable. 

[MAJBobby]

3 minutes ago, dubs said:

 

Hah!  Based on what exactly?

 

Espn has it at 62.4 before the punt and 60.1 after punt. So another showing odds dropped. 

[Rocbillsfan1]

4 minutes ago, dubs said:

 

 

Again, what is the source of your odds?  

How bout the common sense odds that you no longer have the ball there's 4 min left in the game and the colts just had a 10+ minute possession. Coaching on both sides was atrocius today. I remember at one point the Colts punted on a 4th and 3 I think from the Bills 32. There should have been no punting by either team once you crossed the other side the field as kicking a fg wasn't really a good option.

Edited December 11, 2017 by Rocbillsfan1

[Bills Pimpin']

25 minutes ago, sullim4 said:

In these kinds of situations, I just ask myself, "What would Bill Belichick do?"

 

He'd have gone for it.  Obviously.

I'd go for it on every 4th and 1 with the GOAT under center. That doesn't make his decisions brilliant

 

 

5 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Just go look at ESPN its there 

ESPN. HAHAHAHAHAHA.

Edited December 11, 2017 by Bills Pimpin'

[Kelly the Dog]

1 minute ago, Bill_with_it said:

No i think giving the colts the ball 26 yards away from Adams confirmed distance in this weather would be really dumb. Considering they moved the ball fairly well. In this weather make them drive the full length of the field. Pin them back. More opportunities for a sack, fumble, strip, int, or just stop them as we did at their 31. Their punter averaged 38 yards. That puts us at roughly at the 31 if we just let it go. Gave Dennison a little more time to come up with a few more plays than the 5 or six that he ran. Which he clearlt did. 

You're ignoring the most important element of the decision. We needed to win the game. It didn't matter one bit whether or not the Colts could go the length of the field. If they get twenty yards out season is over. 

[BillsFan130]

Just now, dubs said:

 

Poker hands can project odds because of the limited number of cards. This situation was unlike anything so I’m not sure your metaphor is really applicable. 

You're missing the point bud. I'm saying just because they won the game, doesn't mean it was the correct decision

[Bill_with_it]

7 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Those were the REAL TIME ODDS 

 

and with the punt did the 3rd string QB still have to complete a deep pass on third down? To a WR cut by Bears?? In a foot of snow??

 

got it dont want to accept the facts

 

once again you fail to address any of those questions 

Thise arent real time odds. Those are odds based in things that have previously happened under different circumstances than were of this game. You fail to recognize that very simple fact. As such im not going to reply to your posts there so incorrect and unsubstantiated it’s ridiculous. The posts you post are so emotionally distraught I have sympathy for you.

[Nick the Greek]

At the end of the day, it was the RIGHT call. Kudos to McD.

[dubs]

2 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Espn has it at 62.4 before the punt and 60.1 after punt. So another showing odds dropped. 

 

 

I get that you are sourcing ESPN. What I’m asking is do you know how they come up with those odds?  

[Lfod]

5 minutes ago, dubs said:

 

Poker hands can project odds because of the limited number of cards. This situation was unlike anything so I’m not sure your metaphor is really applicable. 

I myself like to use momentum. I'll stay quiet usually. If luck strikes and I win a few hands I'll start bluffing on that momentum swing. Sorry to be off topic but bringing up poker or hold em in general gets in interested in talking poker as well.

 

Poker is fun and anything can happen so I tend to not over value my hands. 

Edited December 11, 2017 by Lfod

[Bill_with_it]

Just now, Kelly the Dog said:

You're ignoring the most important element of the decision. We needed to win the game. It didn't matter one bit whether or not the Colts could go the length of the field. If they get twenty yards out season is over. 

I missed no point. I realized that we need to win. I also realized that giving a short field to an offense that moved 77 yards down the field isnt a good idea. Give them a longer field make them make a mistake or make them punt to play field position. Gives your offensive coordinator and staff a little more time to try and come up with some plays that will get you down the field.

[dubs]

3 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

You're missing the point bud. I'm saying just because they won the game, doesn't mean it was the correct decision

 

 

Well, it’s certainly more important of a factor than highly questionable projections or gut feelings or what Mike Schoop and the Browns would do. 

[Bills Pimpin']

2 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

You're ignoring the most important element of the decision. We needed to win the game. It didn't matter one bit whether or not the Colts could go the length of the field. If they get twenty yards out season is over. 

McD bet that they couldn't. Why is that so hard to understand? IT PLAYED OUT EXACTLY HOW THE COACH THOUGHT IT WOULD WHEN HE PUNTED THE FOOTBALL. THEREFORE HE WAS RIGHT. 

How is that so hard to understand? The Bills won the football game. Do you know that? It was like the coach was nostra!@#$ingdomas. It was like he had a crystal ball. He made the PERFECT decision for this particular game with this particular team. Is that even arguable?

 

[Kelly the Dog]

2 minutes ago, Bill_with_it said:

I missed no point. I realized that we need to win. I also realized that giving a short field to an offense that moved 77 yards down the field isnt a good idea. Give them a longer field make them make a mistake or make them punt to play field position. Gives your offensive coordinator and staff a little more time to try and come up with some plays that will get you down the field.

They gained 14 yards on the exchange. 

[BillsFan130]

Just now, dubs said:

 

 

Well, it’s certainly more important of a factor than highly questionable projections or gut feelings or what Mike Schoop and the Browns would do. 

Put it this way. I strongly disagree with the decision to punt. And that has nothing to do with the odds ESPN had or whatever.

 

If you agree with it then that's your opinion and fair enough.

 

But don't say it was the correct decision just because they won the game..

[Kelly the Dog]

It wasn't a short field it was a 60 yard field

[Rocbillsfan1]

2 minutes ago, Bill_with_it said:

I missed no point. I realized that we need to win. I also realized that giving a short field to an offense that moved 77 yards down the field isnt a good idea. Give them a longer field make them make a mistake or make them punt to play field position. Gives your offensive coordinator and staff a little more time to try and come up with some plays that will get you down the field.

the problem is you are acting like it's a guarantee that the Bills don't get the first. Grow some balls dude. You have better odds giving the ball to McCoy and telling him to make a play than having to go 65 yards relying on a 3rd string QB who just almost threw the game deciding INT in your own end.

[dubs]

Like I said, I was blown away at the punt decision too. But I was wrong. 

 

As I thought about it after the game, I started to understand why the decision was made and it makes sense to me. But either way it didn’t seem like an obvious decision as many are making it out to be. It was a crap position either way. 

 

The idea was that there was a better chance pinning the Colts and trying to get a short field as the game was winding down. Other than the one drive, the Colts did pretty much nothing. 

 

On the the flip side, of the Bills don’t get the first and even if the Colts go 3 and out, the field would be too long for the offense there. 

 

Tough call, the decision made worked, so it was the correct one, IMO.