Fadingpain Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Just now, MAJBobby said: There was actually two crap decisions from the coach Back to BACK. First was the TO before the Punt then the Punt itself Not just crap decisions. That whole situation would make me want to fire this guy in the offseason, b/c I now know he is not good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsfanAZ Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, billsfan11 said: Either way you slice it, it wasn't the right decision. Yes they won. Because brisette missed a wide open Hilton. Because somehow webb completed a 50 yard bomb to their 4th receiver. I bet 8 out of 10 times if he punts there, the game ends in a tie and the bills are out of the playoffs This is what I dont get. Is it what I would have done? No. I would have gone for it. If the Colts would have stuffed the Bills and been able to make a few runs to kick a field goal then people on here would say that was the wrong decision. Either way he goes he is facing criticism. For fans to sit here and say it is the wrong decision makes no sense. You can have an opinion but I bet there are a lot of coaches that would have done the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poblano Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Kelly the Dog said: He always goes for it. You're nuts. No he don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fadingpain Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Just now, Crayola64 said: Sure go look at the win probability chart on espn that tracks the game play by play. Our chances of winning the game were much lower by the time we got the ball back compared to when it was 4th and 1. And its not rocket science. The chances of converting a 4th and 1 and getting 10-15 yards is a lot better than punting, getting a three and out, and driving 60-70 yards. It took the colts missing a wide open received when they had the ball, a bomb, and a long run. Trying to explain probability and basic statistics theory to many at this forum is like trying to teach your dog how to read. Good luck with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aceman_16 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Just now, Crayola64 said: Sure go look at the win probability chart on espn that tracks the game play by play. Our chances of winning the game were much lower by the time we got the ball back compared to when it was 4th and 1. And its not rocket science. The chances of converting a 4th and1 and getting 10-15 yards is a lot better than punting, getting a three and out, and driving 60-70 yards. It took the colts missing a wide open received when they had the ball, a bomb, and a long run. Im lazy... do you have a link? and does it take in consideration of weather conditions? If not... then it is garbage generic data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cripple Creek Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 11 minutes ago, Domdab99 said: OMG all of this. If the colts were just not completely incompetent as a team, the Bills do not get another shot at it. Amended game balls: Refs and Chuck Pagano. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 It was a horrible call, but it worked. So in that situation it's tough to blame him. There will never be another situation like this with all the variables to compare it to. The real problem with this is that it rewards bad behavior. 1 minute ago, poblano said: No he don't On the other teams 40? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsfanAZ Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: Really????Hmmm how many people within the LOS on Shadys TD run. It WAS A HORRIBLE call Seriously? On McCoys run the LBS were 5 yards off the LOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Cubed Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Just now, BillsfanAZ said: This is what I dont get. Is it what I would have done? No. I would have gone for it. If the Colts would have stuffed the Bills and been able to make a few runs to kick a field goal then people on here would say that was the wrong decision. Either way he goes he is facing criticism. For fans to sit here and say it is the wrong decision makes no sense. You can have an opinion but I bet there are a lot of coaches that would have done the same thing. What are you talking about? He said he trusted his defense to get the ball back, that’s why he punted. Why didn’t he trust them and go for it on 4th knowing they could get the ball back? Let me ask you this, what do you think Chuck Pagano wanted McDermott to do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Just now, BillsfanAZ said: Seriously? On McCoys run the LBS were 5 yards off the LOS There was 10 inside the box on that TD run. Guess what they did Executed. Same thing they can do on 4th and 1. The outcome doesnt change that it was inexcusable to punt the ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Numark3 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 1 minute ago, aceman_16 said: Im lazy... do you have a link? and does it take in consideration of weather conditions? If not... then it is garbage generic data. I think if you google bills vs colts and look at the summary tab there is the chart. And I am going to be honest with you, it probably is not a very exact science lol.* But the second half of my post explaining the logic is where its at. I doubt it takes into the weather conditions. But that would only prove my point more. Driving 60 70 yards in the snow is much less likely than converting a 4th and one and moving the ball 10 yards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan130 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 1 minute ago, BillsfanAZ said: This is what I dont get. Is it what I would have done? No. I would have gone for it. If the Colts would have stuffed the Bills and been able to make a few runs to kick a field goal then people on here would say that was the wrong decision. Either way he goes he is facing criticism. For fans to sit here and say it is the wrong decision makes no sense. You can have an opinion but I bet there are a lot of coaches that would have done the same thing. Just cause they won doesn't make it the right decision. You ever play poker? Its like saying, "I made the right decision by going all in with 2, 7 off suit vs pocket aces because I won". You got to play the odds. There will obviously be times where the underdog odds are going to workout, but doesn't mean it's correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Numark3 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 (edited) And I dont think it was gutless, I think he just has a poor grasp of the clock. Most coaches do. If the clock didn't make this such a dumb decision, then it would be arguably be the correct call. The best part of it was the he used a timeout and then still sent out the punt team. Then later left 15 seconds run off the clock before calling the final timeout. It is just bad clock management. Edited December 10, 2017 by Crayola64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Another Fan Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Before the Colts last drive in the 4th Quarter, they were basically held in check all day. Had no problems with the call to punt. Different defense that last year in the Miami game. I had faith they would get the ball back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fadingpain Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: There was 10 inside the box on that TD run. Guess what they did Executed. Same thing they can do on 4th and 1. The outcome doesnt change that it was inexcusable to punt the ball BINGO! BINGO! BINGO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsfanAZ Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, Fadingpain said: The fact that McD's decision resulted in a win, in this particular game, doesn't make his decision correct. You understand that, right? I have already said that the Bills were punting decently all game and chances were low that the Colts would go the whole field on run plays. With the field conditions there is lower probability they convert a 4th and 1 when the Colts would have basically used a goalline formation. Just because it wasnt what you or I would have done, doesnt make him wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cripple Creek Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said: The announcers hated it The fans hated it We got so lucky on Deonte's catch If McDermott is going to be this conservative it doesn't bode well for the future. Phil Simms lauded the call. That should be enough to shut up everyone who is saying it was the right call. Who wants to stand beside Phil Simms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 (edited) It was a horrible decision and typical of a defensive coach. His thinking was we'll pin them deep and give our offense a new set of downs. That assumes that you get a clean punt off, force a three and out, and at best you get the ball around your own 40. You then have to rely on your 3rd string quarterback to drive you down the field in the snow to get in range for a very difficult field goal. Just the odds of probability say go for it on a 4th and 1 on their 41 with 4 minutes left in the snow when a tie doesn't do you any good. Edited December 10, 2017 by Doc Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Numark3 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 (edited) 1 minute ago, BillsfanAZ said: I have already said that the Bills were punting decently all game and chances were low that the Colts would go the whole field on run plays. With the field conditions there is lower probability they convert a 4th and 1 when the Colts would have basically used a goalline formation. Just because it wasnt what you or I would have done, doesnt make him wrong. You realize overtime ends after 10 minutes? it wasnt that the colts would have to go the length of the field. If they converted one or two first downs the game is going to be a tie at best (and season over) Edited December 10, 2017 by Crayola64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, billsfan11 said: Just cause they won doesn't make it the right decision. You ever play poker? Its like saying, "I made the right decision by going all in with 2, 7 off suit vs pocket aces because I won". You got to play the odds. There will obviously be times where the underdog odds are going to workout, but doesn't mean it's correct The poker analogy is a good one. Sure you make a reckless or gut decision sometimes and it works. Doesn't make it a good decision. It's not like a bluff where it is a strategy. It's hitting on 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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