Gutless Call to Punt

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

   ....only in Bflo could a beotchfest break out in a mind boggling "W" with weather Tasker said was, "the worst I've seen at a Buffalo game in 30 years"....go figure....Jesus...              

[Wayne Cubed]

Just now, BillsfanAZ said:

I have already said that the Bills were punting decently all game and chances were low that the Colts would go the whole field on run plays. With the field conditions there is lower probability they convert a 4th and 1 when the Colts would have basically used a goalline formation. Just because it wasnt what you or I would have done, doesnt make him wrong. 

 

Quick, what’s the probability of Shady running for a TD on 3rd and 4 with 10 guys in the box? What’s the probability of Joe Webb completing a 50 yard pass?

 

You think the probability of them coverting a 4th and 1 is low because they might be in goaline formation? And how is that any different from any other 4th and short?

[Cripple Creek]

10 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

There was actually two crap decisions from the coach Back to BACK. 

 

First was the TO before the Punt 

then the Punt itself 

To be completely honest there were 3.

 

Decision to punt.

Time out before punting making everyone think he had come to his senses.

Punting the ball.

[MAJBobby]

3 minutes ago, Another Fan said:

Before the Colts last drive in the 4th Quarter, they were basically held in check all day.

 

Had no problems with the call to punt.  Different defense that last year in the Miami game.  I had faith they would get the ball back. 

 

And that faith would not have been there if stuffed on 4th and 1. See how stupid that justification is????

[aceman_16]

5 minutes ago, Crayola64 said:

 

I think if you google bills vs colts and look at the summary tab there is the chart.  And I am going to be honest with you, it probably is not a very exact science lol.*  But the second half of my post explaining the logic is where its at. 

 

 

I doubt it takes into the weather conditions.  But that would only prove my point more.  Driving 60 70 yards in the snow is much less likely than converting a 4th and one and moving the ball 10 yards

I did not agree with it at the time either. I was just curious if someone had posted weathered adjusted probabilities to quote.

[MAJBobby]

2 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

   ....only in Bflo could a beotchfest break out in a mind boggling "W" with weather Tasker said was, "the worst I've seen at a Buffalo game in 30 years"....go figure....Jesus...              

 

Yeah because cant talk a out a horrible decision because they won 

[reginald]

The Bills won, and covered to! That's what matters. 

[Beast]

7 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

It was a horrible call, but it worked. So in that situation it's tough to blame him. There will never be another situation like this with all the variables to compare it to. 

 

 

That’s pretty much it to me in a nutshell.

 

I was yelling at the television but it ended up working.

 

It was the strangest game I’ve ever witnessed in my 45 years of rooting for the Bills. 

[BillsfanAZ]

6 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

What are you talking about? He said he trusted his defense to get the ball back, that’s why he punted. Why didn’t he trust them and go for it on 4th knowing they could get the ball back? 

 

Let me ask you this, what do you think Chuck Pagano wanted McDermott to do?

Turning the ball over on downs closer to the 40, the Colts are calling plays differently than deep in their own end. If they stuffed the Bills they just needed a couple good runs to get into possible field goal range. 

[PromoTheRobot]

Gutless or good call? Hmmmm. It worked, didn't it.

[KD in CA]

1 minute ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

   ....only in Bflo could a beotchfest break out in a mind boggling "W" with weather Tasker said was, "the worst I've seen at a Buffalo game in 30 years"....go figure....Jesus...              

 

"Best fans in the NFL!"   

 

Can you image how upset some of them would be if the Bills did make the playoffs?

[Numark3]

Just now, aceman_16 said:

I did not agree with it at the time either. I was just curious if someone had posted weathered adjusted probabilities to quote.

 

I think their probability just tracks what the win outcome of teams are based on past nfl results.  It wouldn't factor in stuff like weather, though with enough of a sample you don't have to.

[Buddy Hix]

11 minutes ago, BillsfanAZ said:

This is what I dont get. Is it what I would have done? No. I would have gone for it. If the Colts would have stuffed the Bills and been able to make a few runs to kick a field goal then people on here would say that was the wrong decision. Either way he goes he is facing criticism. For fans to sit here and say it is the wrong decision makes no sense. You can have an opinion but I bet there are a lot of coaches that would have done the same thing. 

Win probability says it is the wrong move...which it definitely was.

[Wayne Cubed]

5 minutes ago, Another Fan said:

Before the Colts last drive in the 4th Quarter, they were basically held in check all day.

 

Had no problems with the call to punt.  Different defense that last year in the Miami game.  I had faith they would get the ball back. 

 

Then why couldn’t they hold them in check from the 41?!?

 

if you trust your defense to get the ball back, you go for it! There’s no reason not to.

[Numark3]

Just now, PromoTheRobot said:

Gutless or good call? Hmmmm. It worked, didn't it.

 

That just is not how it works...

 

 

Webb throwing that INT before the end of the game isnt a good play merely because we ended up in overtime. 

[Domdab99]

7 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

Just cause they won doesn't make it the right decision. You ever play poker?

 

Its like saying, "I made the right decision by going all in with 2, 7 off suit vs pocket aces because I won". 

 

You got to play the odds. There will obviously be times where the underdog odds are going to workout, but doesn't mean it's correct

 

I am a poker player. that's called being results oriented. And it's one of the first things you learn not to be if you take the game seriously.  

[Doc Brown]

Leave it to Phil Simms to praise McDermott for the decision.  That's why Romo replaced you.

[Cripple Creek]

3 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

   ....only in Bflo could a beotchfest break out in a mind boggling "W" with weather Tasker said was, "the worst I've seen at a Buffalo game in 30 years"....go figure....Jesus...              

I don't see any signs of a bitchfest. Some decent discussion which is what we come here for. 

 

For yourself...go check your "get off my lawn!" sign.

[PromoTheRobot]

Just now, Crayola64 said:

 

That just is not how it works...

 

 

Webb throwing that INT before the end of the game isnt a good play merely because we ended up in overtime. 

Never does when you are a arguing against a win.

[Real McClappy]

1 minute ago, Binghamton Beast said:

 

That’s pretty much it to me in a nutshell.

 

I was yelling at the television but it ended up working.

 

It was the strangest game I’ve ever witnessed in my 45 years of rooting for the Bills. 

Same, Same and Same. 

 

The 5 minute delayed penalty for PI on that 2pt conversion is still mind boggling to me.

[KD in CA]

5 minutes ago, Crayola64 said:

 

You realize overtime ends after 10 minutes?  it wasnt that the colts would have to go the length of the field.  If they converted one or two first downs the game is going to be a tie at best (and season over)

 

Actually no, I didn't.  They change so many rules now I can't keep up with all.

[Wayne Cubed]

1 minute ago, BillsfanAZ said:

Turning the ball over on downs closer to the 40, the Colts are calling plays differently than deep in their own end. If they stuffed the Bills they just needed a couple good runs to get into possible field goal range. 

 

A couple good runs? They need quite a few actually. 

 

I just don’t get this logic. You trust the defense to make a stop at the 10 but at the 41 you don’t trust them?

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

Just now, Cripple Creek said:

I don't see any signs of a bitchfest. Some decent discussion which is what we come here for. 

 

For yourself...go check your "get off my lawn!" sign.

 

...that's you job sonny...........

[BillsFan130]

5 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

The poker analogy is a good one. Sure you make a reckless or gut decision sometimes and it works. Doesn't make it a good decision. It's not like a bluff where it is a strategy. It's hitting on 18. 

Lol nice one as well with the blackjack as well I think you one upped me lol

[Wayne Cubed]

1 minute ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Never does when you are a arguing against a win.

 

No ones arguing against a win. Try again.

[Kelly the Dog]

1 minute ago, KD in CA said:

 

Actually no, I didn't.  They change so many rules now I can't keep up with all.

That's one of the main reasons it was such a bad call. 

[BillsFan130]

2 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

 

I am a poker player. that's called being results oriented. And it's one of the first things you learn not to be if you take the game seriously.  

Exactly

[Doc Brown]

1 minute ago, KD in CA said:

 

Actually no, I didn't.  They change so many rules now I can't keep up with all.

I'm embarrassed to say I didn't either, but I did recognize it as soon as they started OT and saw the clock.

[Cripple Creek]

3 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Gutless or good call? Hmmmm. It worked, didn't it.

That's not part of the discussion. Everyone is happy it worked.

[Fadingpain]

Mike Schopp just asserted on the air during the post game show that McD likely did not know the ramifications of a tie today and how that should have impacted his decision to punt in OT.

 

NO ONE in the post game PC asked that question or addressed it.

 

I think Schopp is right.

 

 

Just now, Cripple Creek said:

That's not part of the discussion. Everyone is happy it worked.

You are of course correct, but no way Promo gets that.

 

 

[Kingston Bills Fan]

The dumbest part was he sent his punt team out with like 3 min left then used one of his SO INCREDIBLY important time outs, then sends out his punt team again right after the timeout!! Now they only have one timeout to use to stop them! If your gonna put your balls in your purse thAts fine just go ahead and punt it, but don’t put your brain right next to them and waste a time out also!!! 

 

Time management is so important and it seems the Bills need to put a want ad out to hire someone who can hold McD’s hand through it!

Edited December 10, 2017 by Kingston Bills Fan

[poblano]

12 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

It was a horrible call, but it worked. So in that situation it's tough to blame him. There will never be another situation like this with all the variables to compare it to. 

 

The real problem with this is that it rewards bad behavior. 

On the other teams 40?

It's a game situation you don't punt in other weather, but the point is that ended well

[KD in CA]

1 minute ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

A couple good runs? They need quite a few actually. 

 

I just don’t get this logic. You trust the defense to make a stop at the 10 but at the 41 you don’t trust them?

 

Obviously they were planning for where they would get the ball back for the next possession, which is quite a bit different if the Colts are punting from the 10 or the 41.   He thought there was enough time left to play for field position for a final drive and he was right.   Any chance to win ends if they don't convert the 4th and 1, which was a dicey proposition in the snow.

[Doc Brown]

Just now, Fadingpain said:

Mike Schopp just asserted on the air during the post game show that McD likely did not know the ramifications of a tie today and how that should have impacted his decision to punt in OT.

 

NO ONE in the post game PC asked that question or addressed it.

 

I think Schopp is right.

 

 

A broken clock is right twice a day I guess.

[MAJBobby]

Just now, KD in CA said:

 

Obviously they were planning for where they would get the ball back for the next possession, which is quite a bit different if the Colts are punting from the 10 or the 41.   He thought there was enough time left to play for field position for a final drive and he was right.   Any chance to win ends if they don't convert the 4th and 1, which was a dicey proposition in the snow.

 

How does any chance if winning goes out the window if stuffed on 4th and 1

[Kelly the Dog]

Just now, Kingston Bills Fan said:

The dumbest part was he sent his punt team out with like 3 min left then used one of his SO INCREDIBLY important time outs, then sends out his punt team again!! Now they only have one timeout to use to stop them! If your gonna put your balls in your purse thAts fine just punt but don’t put your brain right next to them and waste a time out also!!! 

 

Time management is so important and it seems the Bills need to put a want ad out to hire someone who can hold McD’s hand through it!

His time management is really bad. He's a first time head coach on any level. There is a small learning curve. But he's made some gross errors. 

[BillsfanAZ]

3 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

A couple good runs? They need quite a few actually. 

 

I just don’t get this logic. You trust the defense to make a stop at the 10 but at the 41 you don’t trust them?

Why cant you understand that the Colts plays on their own 10 play more conservative than playing at their own 40? Gore had almost as many yards as Shady. 

[ExWNYer]

14 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

There was actually two crap decisions from the coach Back to BACK. 

 

First was the TO before the Punt 

then the Punt itself 

 

14 minutes ago, Crayola64 said:

 

Sure go look at the win probability chart on espn that tracks the game play by play.  Our chances of winning the game were much lower by the time we got the ball back compared to when it was 4th and 1.

 

And its not rocket science.  The chances of converting a 4th and 1 and getting 10-15 yards is a lot better than punting, getting a three and out, and driving 60-70 yards.  It took the colts missing a wide open received when they had the ball, a bomb, and a long run. 

 

Absolutely. The lack of situational awareness by coaches around the league is mind boggling. One of these offenders happens to coach the team I root for every week and it's frustrating as hell. I'm holding out hope that he learns from his mistakes and improves but I'm not holding my breath. When will this franchise figure out how to hire an innovative, forward thinking coach who understands how 21st century football is played??! They won despite their coach and because of an even bigger sad sack on the other sideline. Happy for the win but defending McD in this spot is ludicrous. Squish the Fish!!!

[Doc Brown]

Just now, Kelly the Dog said:

His time management is really bad. He's a first time head coach on any level. There is a small learning curve. But he's made some gross errors. 

Still better than Rex who didn't challenge an important long pass in KC that hit the ground because they didn't show the replay on their home giant flat screen tv. 

[QCity]

Considering the weather, I don't think that call was as egregious as some are making it out to be. The decision to let Webb throw the ball with only a minute left was far worse.