Article: "If the Bills Aren't Tanking, What Are They Doing?&#3

[Magox]

 

McDermott and Beane are trying to build a team that can beat the Jets........

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And only the Jets.

 

Yes, that is exactly what they are trying to do.

 

Good post.

[SoTier]

 

 

 

 

By giving the young guys role models within the locker room to show them the way. These guys also happen to be the best players on the team.

 

No, they have not "devastated" the young talent on the team. That's ridiculous and more drama queen ranting.

 

Seriously??? "Show them the way" to what? Where to buy tickets for playoff games? Unless they played for other teams that went to the playoffs, that's the only way any of the Bills veterans will ever attend one.

Edited September 6, 2017 by SoTier

[billsfan89]

The Bills are either soft tanking or competitively rebuilding. Lets look at the big free agents they let go.

 

1- Gilmore- No doubt the Pats* over paid Gilmore but Gilmore was a good player at a premium position. Gilmore is the 8th highest paid corner in the league at 13 million a year. That's a bit over an overpay as I would rank Gilmore somewhere in the 15-23 range at corner. Ideally he would be paid somewhere between 9-10 million per-year. But he hit the market at the right price and got paid. Also there is no word on if the Pats* offer was the highest or did he take a little less to go to a winning situation? If the Bills had to pay 15 million per-year to keep him I would have passed. But not overpaying a corner who might not be a fit for the system isn't a move intentionally getting worse.

 

2- Robert Woods- Woods is the 23rd highest paid receiver this year at 6.8 million per-year. He is nowhere close to being the 23rd best WR in the NFL and his production doesn't come close to justifying that level of pay. Overall this one was sensible to let him walk. This one was a smart move.

 

3- Mike Gillislee- I think Gillislee is a good back and I would have retained him. But this was a move more so born out of getting that draft pick and finding that you could replace a backup running back much easier than you can acquire an extra mid round pick.

 

Then you have the big trades. No doubt the Bills got less talented players but that doesn't mean they will get less production.

 

Jordan Matthews vs. Sammy Watkins - This is a clear downgrade in talent. But if Watkins can't stay on the field for more than 6 games and Matthews plays all 16 at a above average level then who is the more productive player? It is clear that long term the Bills don't want to risk their seasons on Watkins injuries and they don't want to be in a position to have to pay or franchise Watkins after 1 season if he stays healthy. Matthews will be much more affordable to sign long term and is in general more reliable.

 

EJ Gains vs. Darby- Darby once again is much more talented but not exactly a fit for the system. Gains fits the scheme more. So once again the Bills might have a player that while not as talented will be much more productive.

 

Reggie Ragland- Not a fit for the system at all and coming off an injury a 4th round pick was not a bad return at all.

 

Overall I think the trade down draft day and the trades have made the Bills roster roughly about as competitive as it was before those trades but with the added benefit of having a boat load of draft picks to make a big move for a QB or simply build up the roster.

[Riverboat Richie]

Thank you for proving my point.

[Wayne Arnold]

Seriously??? "Show them the way" to what? Where to buy tickets for playoff games? Unless they played for other teams that went to the playoffs, that's the only way any of the Bills veterans will ever attend one.

 

You honestly think these guys are the reason the Bills haven't been successful over the years? Kyle Williams is the one holding the franchise back?

 

[BuffaloBillyG]

Not really that hard to see the process unfolding.

 

The Bills are the 3rd oldest team in the NFL I believe I read. So you have a core of older players here to 1. Keep the appearance of being competitive 2. Help teach the young guys.

 

Loading up on draft picks and releasing players that are either of questionable fit, healthy or ethics they are building a team that can grow together.

 

Buffalo isn't playing for the AFC East title even had they kept Watkins, Darby ect ect. Not with Brady and Belichick. So you build for the future when they aren't there anymore.

 

If you can't beat them then be the team that replaces them. Brady is 40. He looks good still but when father time catches him he will deteriorate fast.

 

Rex Ryan was shooting for playoffs. One wild card appearance...then what? McBeane is building something that can compete on a high level for years. As long as they draft well they are setting themselves up for sustainable success.

[Gugny]

The opportunity to tank left the building when Rex was fired. You aren't going to intentionally tank a season in the first year of the head coach who you want to be here for a long time. That would leave everyone with a bad taste in their mouths - players and fans alike.

 

I can't believe this is so hard for so many to grasp.

 

It's obvious that this team is rebuilding (only six drafted players remain from the previous front office) while simultaneously leaving the foundation of veteran leadership (Kyle, Lorenzo, Wood, Shady, Tolbert, Dimarco, Incognito, Ducasse, etc.) who all fit the criteria of what Beane and McDermott want to establish within the organization.

 

Since when does a team have to tank in order to rebuild? Can you honestly establish a winning culture by purposely trying to lose in Year #1?

 

There is actually no better time to tank, than in a rookie HC and rookie GM's first season. Talk about a Mulligan.

 

They're gonna try to win games. They're just not good enough to win very many. So no worries about the culture.

 

I can't believe this is so hard for so many to grasp.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

I remember before the draft, Bill Polian was hyping OBJ.

Still think Sammy can have a great career if he stays healthy and has a decent qb.

and has a QB who uses him effectively and throughout the entire 60 minutes week in week out.

 

You honestly think these guys are the reason the Bills haven't been successful over the years? Kyle Williams is the one holding the franchise back?

 

why is it I don't want to read any further

[Cash]

Good article by Rodak - pretty good to see our disparate moves laid out like that.

 

I don't think the Bills are tanking. But I'm not sure what they are doing. (Side note: a lot of posters and media have said that the Bills have a plan, but no one's ever spelled out what the plan is, especially not the Bills. I still want to know what "the process" actually is.)

 

Usually when a team is rebuilding, they cut expensive older players and bring in a ton of young players. The Bills haven't done that yet. They have the 3rd or 4th oldest team in the NFL (Rodak's article sez 4th oldest starting lineup; I've seen 3rd oldest roster elsewhere) - that usually would suggest a team built to win now without worrying about the future. Most of the players they've recently gotten rid of were 25 or under - these are guys that generally get better in the next couple years. I think some of those (Darby, Ragland) were mostly about scheme fit, but it's still a little odd to see a 32-year-old kicker signed, a 31-year-old center extended (especially after matching an offer sheet for his young backup), etc.

 

Move-by-move, I don't have a lot of problems with what the Bills have done. I think letting Gilmore and Woods walk were both correct decisions. I think the Darby trade was a nice haul for a guy who doesn't really fit your system. I don't really like the Watkins trade, but intellectually I think it was probably the right call. But so far, the individual moves don't really look like part of a greater plan to me. If you know you're going to let 2 talented starters walk in free agency, then maybe wait a year to go splurging on kickers and terrible OGs, so you can get a bonus 3rd and 4th round pick next year.

 

We'll see. Barring a historically embarrassing performance, I do think that Beane/McDermott should be given 4+ years to try to make this work. I'm sick of losing talent because it doesn't fit the scheme, or because a guy "didn't buy in". Give McBeane's vision (if they have one, beyond saying "the process" a lot) time to succeed or fail on its own merit.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Not really that hard to see the process unfolding.

 

The Bills are the 3rd oldest team in the NFL I believe I read. So you have a core of older players here to 1. Keep the appearance of being competitive 2. Help teach the young guys.

 

Loading up on draft picks and releasing players that are either of questionable fit, healthy or ethics they are building a team that can grow together.

 

Buffalo isn't playing for the AFC East title even had they kept Watkins, Darby ect ect. Not with Brady and Belichick. So you build for the future when they aren't there anymore.

 

If you can't beat them then be the team that replaces them. Brady is 40. He looks good still but when father time catches him he will deteriorate fast.

 

Rex Ryan was shooting for playoffs. One wild card appearance...then what? McBeane is building something that can compete on a high level for years. As long as they draft well they are setting themselves up for sustainable success.

I disproved this "fun fact" earlier.

 

10 guys over 30, 26 guys under 25 and 17 in their prime.

[Houston's #1 Bills Fan]

People continue to overrate draft position with regard to landing a franchise quarterback. If we've learned anything over the decades, it's that no one can predict how a quarterback performs in the NFL. It's a complete and utter crap shoot.

 

So be as good as you can be this season and use both first-round picks on quarterbacks even if they're only the third and fourth best in the class. Because no one really knows.

 

Then let those two and Peterman battle it out throughout the entire 2018 offseason and preseason and pick one. If he's successful, trade the other one.

Couldn't have said it better myself!! Well done!!!

[BuffaloBillyG]

I disproved this "fun fact" earlier.

 

10 guys over 30, 26 guys under 25 and 17 in their prime.

http://www.phillyvoice.com/ranking-nfl-teams-age-after-53-man-cutdowns-2017-edition/

 

 

I mean, I'm sure you averaged all the ages for the Bills then did the other 31 teams for comparison...but this is where I believe that "fact" comes from...

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I'm starting to feel like these guys might rather lose with their own guys, then win with someone else's

[T-Bomb]

 

I don't think the Bills are tanking. But I'm not sure what they are doing. (Side note: a lot of posters and media have said that the Bills have a plan, but no one's ever spelled out what the plan is, especially not the Bills. I still want to know what "the process" actually is.)

 

Why would they tell anyone?

 

Do companies go around giving away their patents or financial strategy plans?

 

Why do fans and the media feel the Bills owe them a detailed plan of action?

Edited September 6, 2017 by T-Bomb

[vorpma]

Jimmy Johnson tanked in 1989 after inheriting the Cowboy mess; Jerry Jones cleaned house from top to bottom and the organization needed it (Bills 2017)! Bill Polian once stated that the Bills hung onto fan favorites even though it hurt the team in the short and long term. If anyone posting really thinks the Bills, at any time since the end of the 2016 season were playoff contenders, you are smoking crack. For 17 years I have seen childish optimism overcome by realism in December; this house cleaning is needed. I would rather root for the current path ending up 2 - 14 then to watch the ineptness and accepted mediocrity of the last 17 years and end up a putrid 7 - 9 with the old postings - "we are so close." We are not now and have not been!

[row_33]

They are doing precisely what they have said they're doing. They are looking at both short term and long term success.

 

through the right end of the telescope?

[vorpma]

I'm starting to feel like these guys might rather lose with their own guys, then win with someone else's

Wow, very insightful!

[YattaOkasan]

 

There is actually no better time to tank, than in a rookie HC and rookie GM's first season. Talk about a Mulligan.

 

Close. If you're gonna tank I would do it the last year with a HC (i.e. someone you intend to let go) like the jets have done twice now (rex and bowles). First time they had a much better season after the tank.

[Max Fischer]

Jimmy Johnson tanked in 1989 after inheriting the Cowboy mess; Jerry Jones cleaned house from top to bottom and the organization needed it (Bills 2017)! Bill Polian once stated that the Bills hung onto fan favorites even though it hurt the team in the short and long term. If anyone posting really thinks the Bills, at any time since the end of the 2016 season were playoff contenders, you are smoking crack. For 17 years I have seen childish optimism overcome by realism in December; this house cleaning is needed. I would rather root for the current path ending up 2 - 14 then to watch the ineptness and accepted mediocrity of the last 17 years and end up a putrid 7 - 9 with the old postings - "we are so close." We are not now and have not been!

 

Agree 100%

[blargo]

I read the article and like every Rodak article it slants very negative for the Bills. Are the Bills tanking this year? No, why keep Shady, Tyrod, Ritchie, Glenn and Clay on Offense, take cap hits and play younger people. The D the last 2 years was unexpectedly bad. The secondary was thin, after we lost A Williams we had so many busted coverages it was sad, and by the end of each year the run D could not stop anyone.

 

We were 8-8 and 7-9 the last 2 years. The question in my mind is will the D be much better than the last 2 years? Will the O continue to run well? Will the pass O be better with a traditional O coordinator? Does Tyrod continue to not produce a ton of turnovers in a new O? If we get some of this we stay in the 7-9 and 9-7 range. If the D is still bad against the run and the O takes a step back we could be 3-13 to 6-10 range. So that is a huge range IMO from 3 wins to 9 wins. Could we get 10 wins? Sure with lots of luck and breaks and a top 5 D and the same type of O we had the last 2 years. Is that likely, not IMHO.

 

I think we stay in that 7-9 and 8-8 range this year. Tough schedule and new systems.

[Jauronimo]

I know some will miss the point here but here it goes:

 

"I am not afraid of an army of lions led by a sheep; I am afraid of an army of sheep led by a lion."

Deep, deep, stuff. Cute analogies are good for about, give or take, zero wins per year in the NFL. Perhaps McDermott will consume our opponents with fireballs from his eyes and bolts of lightning from his arse but I'm not holding my breath.

 

The cap situation (due to garbage contracts like Dareus received, for example) prevented this team from giving Sammy the whopping contract extension that he would have demanded after this season. Therefore, 2017 was undoubtedly going to be his last season in Buffalo.

 

What would be the point of turning down a 2nd round pick to keep him on the team solely for this season? Was this team in position to win the Super Bowl even if Sammy was 100% healthy the entire season (which has never happened in his career, btw)?

 

As for the popular notion "the season is over now that Sammy is gone" - what was Buffalo's record in 2016 with Sammy vs. without him?

Well that's just categorically wrong.

[mjt328]

Fans and the media are confused, because they believe in only two philosophies: The team is either "built to win now" or they are "tanking for the future."

Signing/extending veterans fits the first mold. Trading older players for draft picks fits the latter. Trading young talent fits neither.

 

I think Brandon Beane/Sean McDermott are simply overhauling the team (whether young or old) into something that fits into their vision. This isn't just about stockpiling draft picks. This isn't about competing for the Number #1 pick. They are trying to win in 2017, but they also aren't afraid to trade away players that don't fit into the roster they are building.

 

Sammy Watkins was traded because of salary. I am 90% convinced of this. They knew that either Watkins has another disappointing season and they let him walk, or he has a fantastic season and wants more money than they were willing to pay. When they first declined his 5th Year Option, I thought the front office was making Sammy prove himself for the money. But now I believe the front office had already decided he had no future in Buffalo.

 

Ronald Darby is undersized and better in man coverage. He didn't fit the defense. Reggie Ragland is a 3-4 middle linebacker with limited skills. He didn't fit the defense. Jonathan Williams didn't help on special teams like they want from backups.

 

It's that simple. And only time will tell if Beane/McDermott actually know what they are doing.

[KGun12TD]

You are by posting this garbage!

[Wayne Arnold]

 

There is actually no better time to tank, than in a rookie HC and rookie GM's first season. Talk about a Mulligan.

 

They're gonna try to win games. They're just not good enough to win very many. So no worries about the culture.

 

I can't believe this is so hard for so many to grasp.

 

Yeah, right. The coach is immediately on the 'hot seat' and has a stain on him for as long as he lasts in the job.

Well that's just categorically wrong.

 

[aristocrat]

Will dennison design a system that helps tyrod be more successful? To lead the league in rushing again? If yes the offense will be very good. If no the offense will look terrible and it's very possible he is scapegoated because the owners may not want to trust the new rookie qb with a guy who can't design a system around a qbs strengths.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Mat68]

Lorenzo is 34

Incognito is 34

Williams is 34

Wood is 31

Tolbert is 31

McCoy is 29

DiMarco is 28

 

How does keeping these guys help rebuild the team when you are going to replace all of them in the next couple of years? Opie and the Beane have devastated the young talent on this team. I don't care how many draft choices they have next season.

They are about to dump alot of young guys next year on the roster. You need to have guys to help out the young guys. Have a culture that easily assimilates the younger player. Buffalo really hasnt had alot of accountability on the feild since maybe gailey. Marrone and Rex wanted all the credit and some of the blame. Edited September 6, 2017 by Mat68

[wilcoam]

I agree 100% with MJT and others who do not see a tank, what I see instead is an overhaul of a roster and a major player transition, but it's not geared to lose and get a high first round draft pick, instead its geared to giving up a little short term talent for more potential long term talent by stockpiling 2018 draft picks

 

Really no different than the 2017 draft trade with KC, we gave up on potential better CB for the long term, in return for still a potential great CB and a first round future draft pick, its a great m,one, sure I could say I think we should have got even more, but the idea works, as does any trade where you accomplish the same objectives

 

And I think its overall a marvellous plan, sure I personally don't like losing Darby, this whole story that he was not a fit with the new scheme is a bit overstated, but I understand why they did what they did

 

I just think they want to win by hand picking their own players (nothing new there), and creating a new culture (nothing new here either) and with players that have a certain disposition to both a hard work ethic and their way of thinking (that might be unique)

 

Sure, I'm not yet convinced their plan works, call me a skeptic, and its been applied inconsistently, I mean why lose too easy comp picks if that's the plan, by signing marginal talent, and I'm not a big fan of whom they signed this off season and the money involved, and our secondary looks badl on paper, however I will be the first person to admit my criticism was incorrect if this team wins more than games than I think it will and or the secondary plays better than last years unit

 

But I sure do like the plan, if they can execute it, its miles ahead philosophically speaking than any other HC or GM the Bills have had in a long time, a and if it works, fans are in for a nice run here, and boy we deserve it....

 

jc

[BmarvB]

It's a tear down and rebuild job while trying to snow us (and the vets on the team) into believing that they're trying to win now during the rebuild.

[Bookie Man]

Production over potential it seems

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

http://www.phillyvoice.com/ranking-nfl-teams-age-after-53-man-cutdowns-2017-edition/

 

 

I mean, I'm sure you averaged all the ages for the Bills then did the other 31 teams for comparison...but this is where I believe that "fact" comes from...

Yeah I get that they averaged the ages.

 

But by breaking it down the way I did you can see that half of the team is young.

 

43 under 30.

If they cut half of the old guys (next season)

Where would that avg be?

[PromoTheRobot]

Caught in the middle of 'attempting to win' vs 'rebuilding'. Also, obligatory side note: I still hate Rodak.

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/28929/if-the-bills-are-not-tanking-what-exactly-are-they-doing

 

What is so freaking hard to understand? They are rebuilding but still trying to win with what they have. 1) You put your team together. 2) You tell them to play to win. 3) You end up where you end up. Not quantum physics.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

What is so freaking hard to understand? They are rebuilding but still trying to win with what they have. 1) You put your team together. 2) You tell them to play to win. 3) You end up where you end up. Not quantum physics.

Seems they can't please all the people at any time.

[8-8 Forever?]

 

What is so freaking hard to understand? They are rebuilding but still trying to win with what they have. 1) You put your team together. 2) You tell them to play to win. 3) You end up where you end up. Not quantum physics.

yes indeed. they are in now mode now. prep mode is over for 2017. go play the games. roster is pretty much set now.

 

tanking/dumping talent in the strict sense is not a workable thing in the NFL. only so many moves you can make given cap/dead$$/need-to-put-a-team-on-the-field implications. NHL rosters you can quickly tank given farm team support/smaller, simpler to manage $$ implications, NFL rosters not so much

 

Sammy was a calculated risk cap move -- smart. Darby and others were scheme/mentality non-fit moves -- expected after regime change -- smart. They weren't tank moves. They've added talent as well, scheme/mentality fits -- players they know and like -- smart.

 

I am a believer is bringing in people who are known quantities when you can. They are doing just that. And they are moving as fast as the rosters/teams/league will support. Rodak is just reflecting what the average fan is saying to get readers, which tells you something about the average fan........

[leonbus23]

 

What young talent was devastated?

 

Watkins for Gaines? They are the same age Plus we got a 2nd rounder

 

Darby for Matthews? Same age Plus we got a 3rd rounder

 

Seymour for Klay? Same age, Seymour was a JAG and we traded him for another JAG

 

Jwill?? If you want to call him a talent, fine. But he wasn't considered to be much of a talent from both the Bills perspective and virtually every other team in the NFL.

 

Ragland for a 4th rounder? Ragland may or may not end up being a good player but he certainly wasn't as good of a fit for 4-3 than a 3-4 and he is coming off of major knee surgery which you would think makes him an even worse fit for a 4-3 LB. He was traded to KC and now been taken off the active roster so clearly he isn't viewed as ready at this point.

 

So what is this talent that has been "devastated" that you speak of? Because the facts say that the moves that have been made, will bring in more young people than what was already here.

I think they focus more on the talent part, not just the the age. While I think the talent they gave was less than they got, they have draft picks. So, they can potentially get more talent, also young.

[vincec]

Getting rid of Watkins was really the gut punch. He is young, extremely talented and a perfect west coast wide receiver. There had to be some serious injury or personality concerns with him otherwise that move was terrible TBH. These other trades are mostly window dressing.

 

In any event, we'll find out over the next few weeks if this purported plan to "win now and win later" works out or if it's really a tank in disguise.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

It kind of reminds me of the first year Pete Carrol got to Seattle. They made like 80 transactions in that first year and just were trying to get their own guys in there.

[Wayne Arnold]

Getting rid of Watkins was really the gut punch. He is young, extremely talented and a perfect west coast wide receiver. There had to be some serious injury or personality concerns with him otherwise that move was terrible TBH. These other trades are mostly window dressing.

 

In any event, we'll find out over the next few weeks if this purported plan to "win now and win later" works out or if it's really a tank in disguise.

 

Well, one of our insiders on this message board constantly referred to Watkins as 'Samantha' fwiw.

 

That combined with his injury history and the tendency of the current front office / coaching staff to not dedicate a large portion of the salary cap to one wide receiver and it's obvious that they wanted to get something for him before his career in Buffalo had ended.

It kind of reminds me of the first year Pete Carrol got to Seattle. They made like 80 transactions in that first year and just were trying to get their own guys in there.

 

Bill Belichick's first two seasons in New England (2000, 2001) as well.

[re enlightener]

People continue to overrate draft position with regard to landing a franchise quarterback. If we've learned anything over the decades, it's that no one can predict how a quarterback performs in the NFL. It's a complete and utter crap shoot.

 

i disagree

 

sincerely,

eli and philip

Fans and the media are confused, because they believe in only two philosophies: The team is either "built to win now" or they are "tanking for the future."

Signing/extending veterans fits the first mold. Trading older players for draft picks fits the latter. Trading young talent fits neither.

 

I think Brandon Beane/Sean McDermott are simply overhauling the team (whether young or old) into something that fits into their vision. This isn't just about stockpiling draft picks. This isn't about competing for the Number #1 pick. They are trying to win in 2017, but they also aren't afraid to trade away players that don't fit into the roster they are building.

 

Sammy Watkins was traded because of salary. I am 90% convinced of this. They knew that either Watkins has another disappointing season and they let him walk, or he has a fantastic season and wants more money than they were willing to pay. When they first declined his 5th Year Option, I thought the front office was making Sammy prove himself for the money. But now I believe the front office had already decided he had no future in Buffalo.

 

Ronald Darby is undersized and better in man coverage. He didn't fit the defense. Reggie Ragland is a 3-4 middle linebacker with limited skills. He didn't fit the defense. Jonathan Williams didn't help on special teams like they want from backups.

 

It's that simple. And only time will tell if Beane/McDermott actually know what they are doing.

who are you and why do you make sense? have i enlightened you already?

[Fadingpain]

People continue to overrate draft position with regard to landing a franchise quarterback. If we've learned anything over the decades, it's that no one can predict how a quarterback performs in the NFL. It's a complete and utter crap shoot.

 

So be as good as you can be this season and use both first-round picks on quarterbacks even if they're only the third and fourth best in the class. Because no one really knows.

 

Then let those two and Peterman battle it out throughout the entire 2018 offseason and preseason and pick one. If he's successful, trade the other one.

Sometimes.

 

Sometimes it's not, like when Troy Aikman was picked Round 1, pick 1...and went on to be one hell of a good NFL QB with 3 Superbowl wins.

[oldmanfan]

i disagree

 

sincerely,

eli and philip

 

who are you and why do you make sense? have i enlightened you already?

 

Eli and Phillip may not be right.

 

Sincerely, Mssrs. Couch, Russell, Smith , and others.

Ultimately you study college QBs as much as possible, then hope you're right.