Stop with "Schedule is Hard"--Analytics says it BS

[Big Turk]

https://www.buffalor...n-metric-stupid

"The correlation coefficient between a team’s preseason strength of schedule and their eventual winning percentage is -0.0861. If you want mathematical proof that the slate for a team going into a season has almost nothing to do with how the season will turn out, well, there you go."

Meaning there is absolutely NO---let me say that again for all thsoe "off season schedule readers" out there---NO!!! correlation to a "tough" schedule before the season starts to a tough schedule when the season is playing out.

In fact, if anything, it shows there might be a correlation to it being the OPPOSITE----teams with alledgedly hard schedules end up with easier schedules than thought, and vise versa

So let's stop talking about the how "tough" the schedule looks because as I have been saying for years, it's BS, and analytics just proved it.

Edited July 4, 2017 by matter2003

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

 

https://www.buffalor...n-metric-stupid

"The correlation coefficient between a team’s preseason strength of schedule and their eventual winning percentage is -0.0861. If you want mathematical proof that the slate for a team going into a season has almost nothing to do with how the season will turn out, well, there you go."

Meaning there is absolutely NO---let me say that again for all thsoe "off season schedule readers" out there---NO!!! correlation to a "tough" schedule before the season starts to a tough schedule when the season is playing out.

In fact, if anything, it shows there might be a correlation to it being the OPPOSITE----teams with alledgedly hard schedules end up with easier schedules than thought, and vise versa

So let's stop talking about the how "tough" the schedule looks because as I have been saying for years, it's BS, and analytics just proved it.

 

...thanks for the find....was hoping a TBD stat rat would do a comparative analysis of pre-season prognostications versus final results.....no way to predict injuries, releases, suspensions, demotions, other roster changes etc, bad weather.........so if the schedule looks tough, guess you just mail it in to satisfy the "let's tank crowd"....come September, just cannot envision the "white flag of tough schedule surrender" flying over The Hat.........

Edited July 4, 2017 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[Gugny]

I think you're nuts. This schedule is brutal. They're starting the year 0-2 with NE games. We can't count on AJ Green leaving the game in the 1st again when we play CIN. Not only are we playing the defending champions twice, but we're also playing the runner up. Every single team, except the Jets, has a better QB than we do.

 

I look at this schedule and the only two "should win," games are against the Jets.

 

I'ts brutal.

[iinii]

One must always remember, "it's hard to win in the NFL!"

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

I think you're nuts. This schedule is brutal. They're starting the year 0-2 with NE games. We can't count on AJ Green leaving the game in the 1st again when we play CIN. Not only are we playing the defending champions twice, but we're also playing the runner up. Every single team, except the Jets, has a better QB than we do.

 

I look at this schedule and the only two "should win," games are against the Jets.

 

I'ts brutal.

 

for your eyes only. although I'm sure there are others who are crying about the schedule being so brutal.

 

 

there are no they "should" win games anymore then there are they "shouldn't" win games.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

 

for your eyes only. although I'm sure there are others who are crying about the schedule being so brutal.

 

 

there are no they "should" win games anymore then there are they "shouldn't" win games.

.... yup, he's the Betsy Ross of TBD preparing the white flag of surrender.....same driveler trashing Kim Pegula.....so consider the source '73....Happy 4th bro............

[H2o]

for your eyes only. although I'm sure there are others who are crying about the schedule being so brutal.

 

 

there are no they "should" win games anymore then there are they "shouldn't" win games.

 

I don't think it is really "crying" as you put it my friend, but more of an observation. People correlating teams' previous year success with those whom we are facing this year. Overall win % of teams we faced last year versus this year based on last year. Looking at the schedule that fell upon us for 2017 it does look harder than the one we were staring at last year before the season began.

[Gugny]

 

for your eyes only. although I'm sure there are others who are crying about the schedule being so brutal.

 

 

there are no they "should" win games anymore then there are they "shouldn't" win games.

 

 

.... yup, he's the Betsy Ross of TBD preparing the white flag of surrender.....same driveler trashing Kim Pegula.....so consider the source '73....Happy 4th bro............

 

Let's get something clear at this juncture. IT'S A !@#$ING GAME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

There is no "surrendering." There are no "warriors," or "heroes."

 

Football is a game.

 

Furthermore, you don't know Kim Pegula and she certainly doesn't give two craps about you. So stop pretending that you're "offended" because I called her a gold digger.

 

It's a game. That's it.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

I don't think it is really "crying" as you put it my friend, but more of an observation. People correlating teams' previous year success with those whom we are facing this year. Overall win % of teams we faced last year versus this year based on last year. Looking at the schedule that fell upon us for 2017 it does look harder than the one we were staring at last year before the season began.

....take it closer to home...Moo's 2004 club finished at 9-7, failing to break the playoff schneid losing to Steelers' 3rd stringers.....10-6 and they're IN....2005 prognostications including strength of schedule had pundits chirping about "up and coming......maybe SB contender....yada yada.....".....and the bottom fell out at 5-11......you never know IMO............

[Dorkington]

90% likely we'll go 0-2 vs the Patriots, though, so at least that part's true.

[Gugny]

....take it closer to home...Moo's 2004 club finished at 9-7, failing to break the playoff schneid losing to Steelers' 3rd stringers.....10-6 and they're IN....2005 prognostications including strength of schedule had pundits chirping about "up and coming......maybe SB contender....yada yada.....".....and the bottom fell out at 5-11......you never know IMO............

 

Of course you never know. That's why they play the games. But anyone giving this schedule an honest look ... and giving the Bills an honest look (who's left, who's arrived, who's stayed, rookie HC, etc.) ... if being rational, would deduce that it will not be an easy feat - nor will it be likely - for the Bills to go above .500 this year.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

I don't think it is really "crying" as you put it my friend, but more of an observation. People correlating teams' previous year success with those whom we are facing this year. Overall win % of teams we faced last year versus this year based on last year. Looking at the schedule that fell upon us for 2017 it does look harder than the one we were staring at last year before the season began.

 

other than the cheaters, no team can really be determined how they succeed based on previous seasons, imo.

 

 

as for the crying, yeah, more like fear for some that look at it and say " we ain't winning any of those games, what a brutal schedule".

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let's get something clear at this juncture. IT'S A !@#$ING GAME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

There is no "surrendering." There are no "warriors," or "heroes."

 

Football is a game.

 

Furthermore, you don't know Kim Pegula and she certainly doesn't give two craps about you. So stop pretending that you're "offended" because I called her a gold digger.

 

It's a game. That's it.

 

it is a game, an unpredictable game, that's it.

[BarleyNY]

One must always remember, "it's hard to win in the NFL!"

Exactly. Every year has a difficult schedule for every team. There is a difference in the relative difficulty of teams' schedules, but those are fluid and not always easily quantifiable with statistics. Short and long term injuries and suspensions to key players on your own team as well as your opponents is huge. Catching the Pats once without Brady and instead facing an injured 3rd string QB sure made a difference in that one game last season. Bye weeks, off night games, order of games, weather, etc. all impact the real difficulty levels of games. So does the interplay of all of the above. You can take a stab at how difficult a schedule will be, but four weeks into a season it'll look very different. And four weeks later it'll look different again.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...ODD thing is even if you do win, NOTHING is guaranteed....Pats were DOOMED in 2008 when Brady went down for season.....yet Matt Cassell leads them to 11-5 and they MISSED the playoffs?....who had THAT in their crystal ball??............

[JM2009]

Every NFL schedule , every year is tough. There are no, and never will be any gimmie games from any team.The difference between winning and losing most games usually comes down to a few plays.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

That's not analytics, that's a useless bunch of elementary plots that wouldn't conclude any thing... ever.

 

Strength of schedule and it's impact on a given team must be individualized and nomrmalized so it's relative.

 

Strength of schedule based on prior results if impacting in any way, would surely impact the strong, weak and marginal teams quite differently- if at all.

[oldmanfan]

I think you're nuts. This schedule is brutal. They're starting the year 0-2 with NE games. We can't count on AJ Green leaving the game in the 1st again when we play CIN. Not only are we playing the defending champions twice, but we're also playing the runner up. Every single team, except the Jets, has a better QB than we do.

 

I look at this schedule and the only two "should win," games are against the Jets.

 

I'ts brutal.

Why let actual data wreck your opinion?

[Paul Costa]

Every NFL schedule , every year is tough. There are no, and never will be any gimmie games from any team.The difference between winning and losing most games usually comes down to a few plays.

We beat Pats without Brady last year. Shut them out in fact. Who knows who will be playing week 13 in Buffalo. To say they will be 0-2 against the Pats seems likely it's why they play the games.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

90% likely we'll go 0-2 vs the Patriots, though, so at least that part's true.

...oh fer 2 and 4 and oh against the rest of the AFCE equates to a fighting playoff chance IMO....then again getting swept by the Jesters last year....you fill in the blanks............

[boyst]

We play some tough teams but to think we habe a chance against a team like Atlanta or ne or Denver is tough. As is both are very good teams.

[Captain Murica]

It's been a hard schedule for 17 years..

[JM2009]

We play some tough teams but to think we habe a chance against a team like Atlanta or ne or Denver is tough. As is both are very good teams.

Denver isn't what they have been, I don't think. QB situation is not good. Very beatable playing in Buffalo.

[3rdand12]

90% likely we'll go 0-2 vs the Patriots, though, so at least that part's true.

Patriots have no tape on the New Bills.

We have the advantage, and yes i am serious.

[Fingon]

On average there are 5 new playoff teams every year, so I don't think we can blame the Bills' schedule for the lack of playoff appearances.

 

 

 

 

According to NFL Media research, at least four new teams have made the playoffs every year since the NFL adopted the 12-team format back in 1990.

Over the past 10 seasons, that average has climbed to more than five teams per season, with the Steelers, Ravens, Cowboys, Lionsand Cardinals all making the leap after missing the playoffs in 2013.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000482717/article/which-five-new-teams-will-make-the-playoffs-in-2015

SOS is meaningless with such high year-to-year variability in playoff teams.

Edited July 4, 2017 by Fingon

[3rdand12]

It's been a hard schedule for 17 years..

must be the Curse

[White Linen]

I look at the QB, head coach and organization. Looking at the schedule it's legitimately tough because most have a combination of those 3 - which make me a little more concerned about the toss up games. I also usually have more than 2 should win games in mind - so for me there's a little more probably should lose games and a bit more toss up games than a typical year for me.

 

 

 

Probably should lose - Panthers, Broncos, Falcons, Bucs, Raiders, Patriots (2)

 

Toss ups - Bengals, Saints, Chargers, Chiefs, Dolphins (2), Colts

 

Should win - Jets (2)

Edited July 4, 2017 by Triple Threat

[JM2009]

I look at the QB, head coach and organization. Looking at the schedule it's legitimately tough because most have a combination of those 3 - which make me a little more concerned about the toss up games. I also usually have more than 2 should win games in mind.

 

 

 

Probably should lose - Panthers, Broncos, Falcons, Bucs, Raiders, Patriots (2)

 

Toss ups - Bengals, Saints, Chargers, Chiefs, Dolphins (2), Colts

 

Should win - Jets (2)

Giving Denver way too much credit here.

[mead107]

19-0 Baby. Just like the Senator always said.

[NoSaint]

Patriots have no tape on the New Bills.

We have the advantage, and yes i am serious.

We have had new schemes to face them like 70% of the last decade

[White Linen]

Giving Denver way too much credit here.

 

Maybe so - then I'd suppose you'd put them in the "toss up" column. It just seems like less - should win games this year, is my point.

[#34fan]

Gets harder the more film they get on Tyrod. ....

[3rdand12]

We have had new schemes to face them like 70% of the last decade

I like your sense of humor.

and it is too true.

But you must agree with me at least 30%. Patriots can look at Dennison and Sean + Frazier. but no one really knows how this quite overturned Team will play.

I suspect they might expect the worst fear will be D line till proven other wise

19-0 Baby. Just like the Senator always said.

And as we always will Mead !

Go Bills !

[Dragonborn10]

I think you're nuts. This schedule is brutal. They're starting the year 0-2 with NE games. We can't count on AJ Green leaving the game in the 1st again when we play CIN. Not only are we playing the defending champions twice, but we're also playing the runner up. Every single team, except the Jets, has a better QB than we do.

 

I look at this schedule and the only two "should win," games are against the Jets.

 

I'ts brutal.

Obviously you don't get the point. Look no further back than last year. I'm sure you would have said 0-2 against the Pats and 2-0 against the Jets in 2016 as well. But the fact Brady was suspended wasn't entirely settled yet. How about losing to the Jets and beating the Cardinals. 95% of the board would have predicted the opposite.

The stats prove there is no correlation. Injuries, free agency, draft, home/away, time between games, and season ending scenarios all play a bigger factor than the prior years record.

 

So, lets just play the games and see what happens without Rex.

[3rdand12]

 

Maybe so - then I'd suppose you'd put them in the "toss up" column. It just seems like less - should win games this year, is my point.

I do not think this upcoming season is predictable T T.

 

Crapshoot.

Obviously you don't get the point. Look no further back than last year. I'm sure you would have said 0-2 against the Pats and 2-0 against the Jets in 2016 as well. But the fact Brady was suspended wasn't entirely settled yet. How about losing to the Jets and beating the Cardinals. 95% of the board would have predicted the opposite.

The stats prove there is no correlation. Injuries, free agency, draft, home/away, time between games, and season ending scenarios all play a bigger factor than the prior years record.

 

So, lets just play the games and see what happens without Rex.

No Rex = Hope

[White Linen]

I do not think this upcoming season is predictable T T.

 

Crapshoot.

No Rex = Hope

 

I agree it's tough to predict but there's some real professional QB's and Head coaches in there that make me a bit more concerned than most years.

[klos63]

Patriots have no tape on the New Bills.

We have the advantage, and yes i am serious.

i think you're joking.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

 

https://www.buffalor...n-metric-stupid

"The correlation coefficient between a team’s preseason strength of schedule and their eventual winning percentage is -0.0861. If you want mathematical proof that the slate for a team going into a season has almost nothing to do with how the season will turn out, well, there you go."

Meaning there is absolutely NO---let me say that again for all thsoe "off season schedule readers" out there---NO!!! correlation to a "tough" schedule before the season starts to a tough schedule when the season is playing out.

In fact, if anything, it shows there might be a correlation to it being the OPPOSITE----teams with alledgedly hard schedules end up with easier schedules than thought, and vise versa

So let's stop talking about the how "tough" the schedule looks because as I have been saying for years, it's BS, and analytics just proved it.

 

 

So if analytics are so super awesome, why do teams fail in the NFL Draft?

 

Analytics is just another fancy application like what the sharps used to do when they published gambling books on how to win at X, Y, or Z. It STILL does not guarantee jack and it doesn't guarantee our schedule is EASIER either... it's just a trend and nothing more.

Edited July 4, 2017 by BmoreBills

[Augie]

19-0 Baby. Just like the Senator always said.

Ummm, he lied......

 

 

I do not think this upcoming season is predictable T T.

 

Crapshoot.

No Rex = Hope

Amen!!!

[3rdand12]

Ummm, he lied......

 

 

 

Amen!!!

His intentions have forever been true

i think you're joking.

; )

this time i am only half joking.

grasping at any precipice worth grappling perhaps? sure

[BADOLBILZ]

I think you're nuts. This schedule is brutal. They're starting the year 0-2 with NE games. We can't count on AJ Green leaving the game in the 1st again when we play CIN. Not only are we playing the defending champions twice, but we're also playing the runner up. Every single team, except the Jets, has a better QB than we do.

 

I look at this schedule and the only two "should win," games are against the Jets.

 

I'ts brutal.

 

 

Math.

 

The end.