Stop with "Schedule is Hard"--Analytics says it BS

[Chilly]

 

There is nothing that is "predicting" here. It simply shows that teams records from one year to the next fluctuate a lot more than most people think, and past performance is never a guarantee of future success.(Kind of like the stock market disclaimers)

 

People are trying to use past team strength as a prediction for the next year's strength of schedule, so yes there is a prediction there, and the model used in that prediction is very poor (simply: what did they do last year?)

 

This doesn't mean it's impossible to create a decent model to predict strength of schedule; it means that simply going off of last season's results to predict this season's strength of schedule is a bad way to do it.

[Buffalo Boy]

Considering the general parity in the NFL, this seems pretty obvious.

 

Every year you have teams that go from being pretty good to mediocrity (Jets, Bengals) or go from mediocrity to being pretty good (Atlanta) or go from sucking to being pretty good (Titans) or go from mediocrity to being great (Oakland) or go from great to sucking (Carolina) or go from sucking to being great (Dallas).

 

And all that was just last year.

 

 

The most consistent teams in the NFL have probably been the Browns for sucking, the Bills for mediocrity, and the Pats for greatness.

 

 

It doesn't help that we play in the same division as the Pats. But, in the end, looking at our schedule and circling games like Atlanta and Carolina as losses seems like grasping at straws. I actually think Atlanta's going to feel the loss of Shanahan and take a step back from what they were last year. And Carolina... well, they sucked last year. Circling that as a loss seems like purely a guess.

Atlanta and Carolina both have systems that have been in place for a while.

Buffalo is playing in Carolina the second week of the season. The Bills will still be in the process of learning their schemes in all facets of the game.

Every prediction is a guess. Some are just more educated than others.

[transplantbillsfan]

Atlanta and Carolina both have systems that have been in place for a while.

Buffalo is playing in Carolina the second week of the season. The Bills will still be in the process of learning their schemes in all facets of the game.

Every prediction is a guess. Some are just more educated than others.

Atlanta just lost their OC and Carolina just lost their DC... so maybe they have partial systems in place, but not entire ones.

 

Plus, again, Carolina sucked last year.

Edited July 7, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[Chandler#81]

Not to be smug but I did think we would beat the Cardinals and the Rams. I had the Cardinals taking a big step back similar the way I have Denver doing this year. I didn't have the Jets or the Dolphins sweeping us though that is true. I like to think I am pretty good at spotting a team whose window has closed and is about to have a down year or two though and Denver is every inch that team this year.

 

The Cardinals were 13-3 in '15. Only reason they didn't make the SB was they lost Palmer and his back up very late in the season. If you actually predicted a Bills win last offseason, whatever you're doing to make a living, you're in the wrong bidniz.

[Thurman#1]

Me three. Wouldn't even think twice.

 

Well I never felt like Lynch had much of a chance coming out. He was my "not with a barge pole" player of the 2016 draft. Siemian is a perfect stylistic fit for Kubiak and Dennison - a poor man's Matt Schaub. Let's see how he transitions into Mike McCoy's offense - I suspect not well. And the defense keeps getting older and keeps losing peices and they lost Wade.

 

 

 

I don't know much about Lynch, really, but I think you're underestimating Siemian.

 

Siemian went into his first NFL action, in his second year, and came up with an 84.9 passer rating. And it was behind an OL that wasn't doing him any favors. He could be a good one. Still too early to say, but he did well for what a young inexperienced guy he is, a guy who wasn't exactly a first-rounder either.

 

I think they're gonna be pretty good. But I'm no Nostradamus. We'll see.

[Doc Brown]

We lucked out on our quarterback opponents as we only have to take on Brady twice, Brees, Rivers, Carr, Ryan, Newton, and Luck. We're screwed.

[Buffalo Boy]

Atlanta just lost their OC and Carolina just lost their DC... so maybe they have partial systems in place, but not entire ones.

 

Plus, again, Carolina sucked last year.

Both teams are going to continue to run the same schemes under the new coordinators.

Both teams have better talent than the Bills IMO.

I don't want the Bills to lose these games but think they will.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

 

The Cardinals were 13-3 in '15. Only reason they didn't make the SB was they lost Palmer and his back up very late in the season. If you actually predicted a Bills win last offseason, whatever you're doing to make a living, you're in the wrong bidniz.

 

They were 7-8-1 last year. They beat NE if the holder doesn't drop the ball on a game winning FG. They missed 2 FGs against Seattle - including a 24 yarder in overtime to win. They also missed 2 XPs and a FG in a 3 point loss to miami. 1 of the XPs was returned for a 2pt conversion - all in a 3 point last second loss.

 

That's the difference between 10-6 and 7-8-1...

[BuffaloHokie13]

 

They were 7-8-1 last year. They beat NE if the holder doesn't drop the ball on a game winning FG. They missed 2 FGs against Seattle - including a 24 yarder in overtime to win. They also missed 2 XPs and a FG in a 3 point loss to miami. 1 of the XPs was returned for a 2pt conversion - all in a 3 point last second loss.

 

That's the difference between 10-6 and 7-8-1...

I feel like you could do a very similar analysis for the Bills with similar results

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I feel like you could do a very similar analysis for the Bills with similar results

 

I mean - seattle and MIA-2 come to mind. MIA1, OAK, PIT, NE2 were all not even as close as the scoreboard indicated.

 

However, win the seattle and miami 2nd game... and the NYJ game has actual ramifications.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

I mean - seattle and MIA-2 come to mind. MIA1, OAK, PIT, NE2 were all not even as close as the scoreboard indicated.

 

However, win the seattle and miami 2nd game... and the NYJ game has actual ramifications.

Had they not blown the lead by reverting to the run against the Raiders the Miami loss might not have mattered and then the JETS game may have been important enough for the team to want to win.

[Big Gun]

You like Siemian but Tyrod not so much?

 

I'd take Tyrod any day of the week over Siemian.

Taking a pro bowler over a pro bowler.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Had they not blown the lead by reverting to the run against the Raiders the Miami loss might not have mattered and then the JETS game may have been important enough for the team to want to win.

 

The issue was the predictable nature of our run attack in that game. It was so obvious on 1st down that we were going to run. We came out swinging in that game, and just wilted so horribly.

Taking a pro bowler over a pro bowler.

 

Siemian - more yards passing, more passing attempts, slightly better YPA, fewer sacks.

 

Tyrod - More yards rushing, Better completion %, more total TDs, 11 more sacks, but for only 5 more yards, fewer turnovers.

 

Siemian had quite a few games with a ton of attempts, and didn't really have great numbers. 30/50 for 230 and a TD? 17/43 for 183 and 1 INT? gross.

[GunnerBill]

 

The Cardinals were 13-3 in '15. Only reason they didn't make the SB was they lost Palmer and his back up very late in the season. If you actually predicted a Bills win last offseason, whatever you're doing to make a living, you're in the wrong bidniz.

I did. I will find the post... but you are getting two years mixed up. 2014 was the year Palmer got injured and the replacements sucked in the playoffs against Carolina. In 2015 Palmer started to look a bit old at the end of the year and in the playoffs. As I say, over the years I have been reasonably good at predicting when teams that have had a run are about to fall off.

You like Siemian but Tyrod not so much?

 

I'd take Tyrod any day of the week over Siemian.

So would I - but do think Siemian is a pretty good fit for the O we are about to run.

Edited July 7, 2017 by GunnerBill

[BuffaloHokie13]

I did. I will find the post... but you are getting two years mixed up. 2014 was the year Palmer got injured and the replacements sucked in the playoffs against Carolina. In 2015 Palmer started to look a bit old at the end of the year and in the playoffs. As I say, over the years I have been reasonably good at predicting when teams that have had a run are about to fall off.

 

So would I - but do think Siemian is a pretty good fit for the O we are about to run.

We saw him in it for a year. He was serviceable for sure. I wonder how he'd fare with a better run game but worse receiving targets (essentially our situation). I'm still of the opinion that our O is going to look more like 2015 Seattle's than 2016 Denver's.

[plenzmd1]

This is really good analysis from Warren Sharp, who is extremely good with analytics and projected win totals etc. He knows you cannot base SOS solely on records, and bases his SOS on projected win totals for this year, totals for run/pass defense etc.

 

some interesting tidbits :

 

1) Bills have toughest SOS in league after game 1..(again based on his expected win totals for 2017)

 

2) Last year faced 6th toughest schedule against the run, this year projected to be 18th ( that should be good)

 

3) Face 3rd toughest schedule of opposing pass offenses

 

4) KC looks like they could take a big step back...really interesting talk starts around the 18-minute mark.

 

5) thinks AFC West is overrated --like's the Chargers...not as high on Derek Carr as the rest of the world.

 

 

 

 

really good listen...

 

 

http://www.wgr550.com/media/audio-channel/07-12-warren-sharp-sharp-football-analysis-john-murphy-show-sal-capacciomp3

[GunnerBill]

This is really good analysis from Warren Sharp, who is extremely good with analytics and projected win totals etc. He knows you cannot base SOS solely on records, and bases his SOS on projected win totals for this year, totals for run/pass defense etc.

 

some interesting tidbits :

 

1) Bills have toughest SOS in league after game 1..(again based on his expected win totals for 2017)

 

2) Last year faced 6th toughest schedule against the run, this year projected to be 18th ( that should be good)

 

3) Face 3rd toughest schedule of opposing pass offenses

 

4) KC looks like they could take a big step back...really interesting talk starts around the 18-minute mark.

 

5) thinks AFC West is overrated --like's the Chargers...not as high on Derek Carr as the rest of the world.

 

 

 

 

really good listen...

 

 

http://www.wgr550.com/media/audio-channel/07-12-warren-sharp-sharp-football-analysis-john-murphy-show-sal-capacciomp3

 

I am with him 100% on 5). Think the Broncos are going to be bad, KC around .500 and Oakland a small step back maybe into the 9-7 range. The Chargers could be a sleeper.

[Thurman#1]

You like Siemian but Tyrod not so much?

 

I'd take Tyrod any day of the week over Siemian.

 

 

Yup, I'd take Siemian over Tyrod.

 

Not if they were both third year guys. But Tyrod is going into his seventh. And seventh year guys who aren't franchise guys make the big leap up to the franchise level almost never.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

 

 

Yup, I'd take Siemian over Tyrod.

 

Not if they were both third year guys. But Tyrod is going into his seventh. And seventh year guys who aren't franchise guys make the big leap up to the franchise level almost never.

 

Contract is certainly cheaper, but i think Tyrod is a better player.

[transplantbillsfan]

 

 

 

I don't know much about Lynch, really, but I think you're underestimating Siemian.

 

Siemian went into his first NFL action, in his second year, and came up with an 84.9 passer rating. And it was behind an OL that wasn't doing him any favors. He could be a good one. Still too early to say, but he did well for what a young inexperienced guy he is, a guy who wasn't exactly a first-rounder either.

 

I think they're gonna be pretty good. But I'm no Nostradamus. We'll see.

Passer Rating, huh?

 

89.6 > 84.9

 

 

 

So does this mean Taylor "could be a good one" even more than Siemian?

Both teams are going to continue to run the same schemes under the new coordinators.

Both teams have better talent than the Bills IMO.

I don't want the Bills to lose these games but think they will.

Friendly bet Buffalo wins one of them?

[Nick the Greek]

It's hard to win in the NFL.. blah blah blah

[Big Turk]

I think you're nuts. This schedule is brutal. They're starting the year 0-2 with NE games. We can't count on AJ Green leaving the game in the 1st again when we play CIN. Not only are we playing the defending champions twice, but we're also playing the runner up. Every single team, except the Jets, has a better QB than we do.

 

I look at this schedule and the only two "should win," games are against the Jets.

 

I'ts brutal.

You'd be right...

 

IF:

 

1) we were playing the teams exactly as they were constructed last year.

2) None of the players on those teams aged,got injured, left in FA, had their team change coordinators or got suspended, played with the same confidence level and the same chemistry

3) Everything was exactly the same as last year

 

As you can see, this is ridiculous to say all of these things will be the same.

[KollegeStudnet]

True. You can't predict what will happen come the season starting. Still see the strength of schedule as a benchmark on what could happen. It's a good tool to motivate players and coaches to do their best.

[GunnerBill]

Both teams are going to continue to run the same schemes under the new coordinators.

Both teams have better talent than the Bills IMO.

I don't want the Bills to lose these games but think they will.

I give us a chance in Carolina. I think we will lose in Atlanta.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Teams change from year to year. Typically a good team is still a good team a year later. But Carolina was 15-1 in 2015, and 7-9 in 2016. So Atlanta being an unstoppable juggernaut doesn't hold water to me.

 

They lost their O coordinator... that will have an effect.

Edited July 13, 2017 by dneveu

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

Taking a pro bowler over a pro bowler.

..Pete Webber??...........

[HappyDays]

Teams change from year to year. Typically a good team is still a good team a year later. But Carolina was 15-1 in 2015, and 7-9 in 2016. So Atlanta being an unstoppable juggernaut doesn't hold water to me.

 

They lost their O coordinator... that will have an effect.

Bills fans have been ruined by the Patriots. All our expectations are thrown off. We think good QBs play like Tom Brady and good teams are consistently good for years at a time. Besides the Patriots, only the Seahawks have come close to matching that level of dynasty the past few years. And maybe the Packers besides than that. Every other team is mostly different from year to year, same goes for QBs outside of the top 5. I expect Atlanta to fall pretty hard this season for example.

[transplantbillsfan]

 

 

Yup, I'd take Siemian over Tyrod.

 

Not if they were both third year guys. But Tyrod is going into his seventh. And seventh year guys who aren't franchise guys make the big leap up to the franchise level almost never.

How many QBs rode the bench for 4 years with no opportunity to start before going to another team, winning the starting QB job, and demonstrating from game 1 he belongs as an NFL starting QB?

 

It's fine. We know you don't think Taylor's any good. But this argument you're making isn't very strong simply because what I just said above almost never happens, but it did with Tyrod.

 

So, one thing that almost never happens (and I challenge you to go find all those instances where it did happen if I'm wrong) happened with our own starting QB. Maybe the thing you think has little chance of happening has a decent chance of happening considering he's already doing the unexpected.

Edited July 13, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Bills fans have been ruined by the Patriots. All our expectations are thrown off. We think good QBs play like Tom Brady and good teams are consistently good for years at a time. Besides the Patriots, only the Seahawks have come close to matching that level of dynasty the past few years. And maybe the Packers besides than that. Every other team is mostly different from year to year, same goes for QBs outside of the top 5. I expect Atlanta to fall pretty hard this season for example.

 

Yup... 2 certainties... the patriots will be good. The browns will be bad. I don't care who they drafted, when you have a bottom 3 offense and defense the year before, you are not close to being good.

[Captain Murica]

Bills fans have been ruined by the Patriots. All our expectations are thrown off. We think good QBs play like Tom Brady and good teams are consistently good for years at a time. Besides the Patriots, only the Seahawks have come close to matching that level of dynasty the past few years. And maybe the Packers besides than that. Every other team is mostly different from year to year, same goes for QBs outside of the top 5. I expect Atlanta to fall pretty hard this season for example.

 

Perfectly stated. The perfect example is a team that represents the same state as the Bills. The Giants went from 6-10 to 11-5 in one year with the same QB they've had for 13 seasons. Changed a weakness into their strength within one season most of the staff stayed in place, but, still a dramatic change.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

 

Perfectly stated. The perfect example is a team that represents the same state as the Bills. The Giants went from 6-10 to 11-5 in one year with the same QB they've had for 13 seasons. Changed a weakness into their strength within one season most of the staff stayed in place, but, still a dramatic change.

...agree....the Pats are what they are, damn good......so what do you do?...resign yourself that the "best we can do is hope and play for a WC spot"?....or pray for Brady and BB to retire?....now there's a real challenging attitude........

[HappyDays]

 

Perfectly stated. The perfect example is a team that represents the same state as the Bills. The Giants went from 6-10 to 11-5 in one year with the same QB they've had for 13 seasons. Changed a weakness into their strength within one season most of the staff stayed in place, but, still a dramatic change.

The Giants represent New Jersey

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

...agree....the Pats are what they are, damn good......so what do you do?...resign yourself that the "best we can do is hope and play for a WC spot"?....or pray for Brady and BB to retire?....now there's a real challenging attitude........

 

Dude the last year they had brady and missed the playoffs was 2002.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

 

Dude the last year they had brady and missed the playoffs was 2002.

...but the "ray of hope" was 2008 when Brady went down and Cassel filled in at 11-5 and they MISSED the playoffs.......first, when is the last time a team missed at 11-5?....secondly, did the Bills show up for the picnic, dude?....NOPE...two sandwiches short at 7-9....go figure..............

Edited July 13, 2017 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

...but the "ray of hope" was 2008 when Brady went down and Cassel filled in at 11-5 and they MISSED the playoffs.......first, when is the last time a team missed at 11-5?....secondly, did the Bills show up for the picnic, dude?....NOPE...two sandwiches short at 7-9....go figure..............

 

Dick Jauron... what did you expect? To be fair - that 2008 Patriots team had a top 10 offense and defense without Brady. I know I don't remember Cassel going 30/43 for 415 and 3 TDs... but he did.

Edited July 13, 2017 by dneveu

[GunnerBill]

So, one thing that almost never happens (and I challenge you to go find all those instances where it did happen if I'm wrong) happened with our own starting QB. Maybe the thing you think has little chance of happening has a decent chance of happening considering he's already doing the unexpected.

There is no doubt Tyrod is a guy who has fought the odds his whole career and has a habit of overcoming. I am not a Tyrod believer but I don't believe the guy will ever quit.

[Captain Murica]

The Giants represent New Jersey

They have New York in their name. Trust me, they should be called the New Jersey Giants/Jets.

[Thurman#1]

 

Contract is certainly cheaper, but i think Tyrod is a better player.

 

 

To repeat what I just said, yeah, me too, slightly.

 

But Tyrod's a 7th year guy and Siemian a 3rd year guy. Plenty of guys with two years of NFL experience make huge leaps upwards. Whereas pretty much the only 7th year guy is Gannon, though hundreds have been in position to do so.

 

Siemian, without a doubt.

Passer Rating, huh?

 

89.6 > 84.9

 

 

 

So does this mean Taylor "could be a good one" even more than Siemian?

 

 

No.

How many QBs rode the bench for 4 years with no opportunity to start before going to another team, winning the starting QB job, and demonstrating from game 1 he belongs as an NFL starting QB?

 

It's fine. We know you don't think Taylor's any good. But this argument you're making isn't very strong simply because what I just said above almost never happens, but it did with Tyrod.

 

So, one thing that almost never happens (and I challenge you to go find all those instances where it did happen if I'm wrong) happened with our own starting QB. Maybe the thing you think has little chance of happening has a decent chance of happening considering he's already doing the unexpected.

 

 

The answer to your first question about how many QBs rode the bench for four years yadda yadda yadda is ... plenty. Probably somewhere close to 50. But you're also missing the point of your own question.

 

How many guys rode the bench for four years ...? Exactly. The good QBs, the ones who have a good chance to become franchise QBs, don't do that. They beat out the guy ahead of them in the first three or four years. And if they don't for some reason, like Aaron Rodgers, then the three or four years on the bench has put them in position to succeed and they quickly show they belong.

 

What doesn't happen is they sit on the bench for a long time, have a good year and then regress. There are virtually no cases of this happening and it resulting in a franchise QB ... because that's not how guys like that behave.

[transplantbillsfan]

The answer to your first question about how many QBs rode the bench for four years yadda yadda yadda is ... plenty. Probably somewhere close to 50. But you're also missing the point of your own question.

 

How many guys rode the bench for four years ...? Exactly. The good QBs, the ones who have a good chance to become franchise QBs, don't do that. They beat out the guy ahead of them in the first three or four years. And if they don't for some reason, like Aaron Rodgers, then the three or four years on the bench has put them in position to succeed and they quickly show they belong.

 

What doesn't happen is they sit on the bench for a long time, have a good year and then regress. There are virtually no cases of this happening and it resulting in a franchise QB ... because that's not how guys like that behave.

This post is baffling.

 

First of all... 50?!

 

Name 10... and be sure you include all the "yadda yadda" you probably just glossed over.

 

Second of all... ummm... quickly showed they belong...? While it might not be to Aaron Rodgers's level, I think that's what he's done...

[Gugny]

Second of all... ummm... quickly showed they belong...? While it might not be to Aaron Rodgers's level, I think that's what he's done...

 

Serious questions here and not trying to be a dick: You think Tyrod Taylor is a QB who's shown that he belongs as the undisputed starter on an NFL team? You think he looks like a guy whose been honing his skills for 5-6 years and has done the things you want to see out of an NFL starter?

 

Lastly - why do you think Tyrod Taylor took a paycut to stay with the Bills? My personal belief is that it was because he knew that Buffalo was the only place he knew he'd start, even if it was just as a bridge.

 

And somehow, you think that's how "someone who belongs," would normally handle that situation?

 

The only thing he's proven is he WAS where he belonged whilst in Baltimore - in my opinion, of course.