Source: Bills Still Deciding on Watkins' 5th Year Option

[kota]

You pick it up on potential alone.

[bobobonators]

Regarding the trade for Sammy duscussed by several in this thread:

 

Im a big fan of Sammy and think he will be a stud once he puts this foot thing behind him. That being said, trading up for a WR in one of the deepest WR classes in a long time was the wrong move in hindsight (which is always 20/20).

 

No way in hell we dont pick up the option

[Bill from NYC]

 

Bill, most of this is simply false.

 

Cooper is 6'1", 211 lbs

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/amari-cooper?id=2552487

Sammy is 6'1", 211 lbs.

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/sammy-watkins?id=2543457

 

Cooper's drop rate was 7.1% as a rookie and 2.3% last year.

Sammy's drop rate was 3.1% as a rookie, 3.1% in year 2, and 3.9% last year

 

On a per-target basis, Sammy smokes Cooper despite playing with a QB that is clearly not the passer that Carr is at the current time.

 

And that brings me back to my point: Cooper is probably a top-10 WR in the NFL by most accounts.

 

Sammy has 2 seasons of performing like a No. 1 WR despite a staggering lack of opportunity in comparison to his peers.

 

The only issue with him is availability. Now, if someone places a higher level of emphasis on that than someone else, sure, that's an argument worth having.

 

Whether or not he's as productive as other guys when given the targets is not up for debate.

I stand corrected. When Sammy came up I seem to recall him being listed as shorter than 6'1'. My bad.

 

As long as Sammy remains on the Bills, I hope he has a better career than Cooper. Remember, I have seen much more of Amari than I have of Sammy. What I am sure of is that Watkins has great moves, better than most receivers I have ever seen. He has the talent. That is beyond question. If he has as much heart as he has talent (and the right attitude), he could be a hall of fame type player.

 

Cooper as you know is a year behind Watkins. He is one excellent football player and seems like a great kid. I liked him in college as much as I did Jones. I am reasonably sure that he will continue to improve and excel. We shall see.

[The Jokeman]

Pick it up but also draft a viable replacement (as most WRs take three seasons before reaching their potential) to either compliment or replace Sammy if he can't stay healthy.

[Dr.Sack]

I would only because you've given up a small fortune to acquire Watkins. We can't keep on losing 1st round talent, and the 5th year option is designed to help you retain those players. Is Watkins a top WR? No not yet. Will he ever be? Remains to be seen. There's too much upside with Watkins, that's why not picking up the 5th year option makes little sense.

[NoSaint]

That's good that you're well connected with established NFL scouts, but I don't see them making the kind of ridiculous statements this thread is full.

 

I just don't see how someone could walk away from watching Sammy live and on tape over the past three seasons and think the guy is the best thing since sliced bread. It's perfectly fine for some to disregard the consistency and production of established top tier receivers and both inflate and project what Sammy could do if his situation was perfected. Again, he's not a bad receiver, he's certainly quality and has big play ability, but it's this top 3-10 stuff that makes me scratch my head.

 

If the guy really burns corners left and right and is open every play, how is it that 3 offensive coordinators and 2 head coaches couldn't find a way to get him the ball consistently? There are only two possible scenarios: Our coaches were so incredibly incompetent that they missed a top tier receiver right in front of their eyes, or he's just not as good as we think. Take your pick.

ill be blunt, because i do this sometimes too, but are you essentially going with the argument despite someone watching the tape, knowing the pro evaluators, etc... that you are going to not believe their assessment because of the stat line and not actually having dug in on the players tape?

 

there are a lot of dudes that go gaga over youtube highlights here, but a few of the guys that you are chatting with put in real effort to this as more than a casual fan. or have solid histories within the bills organization and know the people personally. weve got folks here that do the full game all 22 week in and week out, not just a little WGR feature. some of them mutliple times focusing on different units. i appreciate their efforts a lot, even if i think they are a little crazy delving so deep -- but if it makes them happy, all the better for us.

 

but if you are like me and mostly watch the game live, snag a good breakdown or two, and use common sense -- include the folks kirby mentioned in his post as part of that good breakdown or two.

[NoSaint]

I stand corrected. When Sammy came up I seem to recall him being listed as shorter than 6'1'. My bad.

 

As long as Sammy remains on the Bills, I hope he has a better career than Cooper. Remember, I have seen much more of Amari than I have of Sammy. What I am sure of is that Watkins has great moves, better than most receivers I have ever seen. He has the talent. That is beyond question. If he has as much heart as he has talent (and the right attitude), he could be a hall of fame type player.

 

Cooper as you know is a year behind Watkins. He is one excellent football player and seems like a great kid. I liked him in college as much as I did Jones. I am reasonably sure that he will continue to improve and excel. We shall see.

yup -- i think watkins, cooper, OBJ are that next generation of ELITE talents behind the AJ Green/dez bryant/julio type of players that are right at their peak now (all 5 years older). i dont know that all three make it, but i think theres a pretty good shot for each one.

[TheElectricCompany]

ill be blunt, because i do this sometimes too, but are you essentially going with the argument despite someone watching the tape, knowing the pro evaluators, etc... that you are going to not believe their assessment because of the stat line and not actually having dug in on the players tape?

 

there are a lot of dudes that go gaga over youtube highlights here, but a few of the guys that you are chatting with put in real effort to this as more than a casual fan. or have solid histories within the bills organization and know the people personally. weve got folks here that do the full game all 22 week in and week out, not just a little WGR feature. some of them mutliple times focusing on different units. i appreciate their efforts a lot, even if i think they are a little crazy delving so deep -- but if it makes them happy, all the better for us.

 

but if you are like me and mostly watch the game live, snag a good breakdown or two, and use common sense -- include the folks kirby mentioned in his post as part of that good breakdown or two.

I value that some folks like to spend their time doing this, it's not my cup of tea, but to each their own.

 

However, I am naturally suspicious when someone starts arguing that 1) an elite player is not really that good or 2) a good player is closer to elite because of all these advanced stats or in depth film watching. We know where Sammy ranks in total production, so when folks are arguing how he's top 5 or something, yeah, it grinds my gears. We've all got a little homer to us, but let's be real about what other elite receivers have produced and the hill Sammy has to climb to reach that category. Again, he's clearly talented, but we've had plenty of guys with potential.

 

I cross my fingers that a 2017 campaign of 91 catches, 1,395 yards and 12 TDs put to rest this argument.

 

yup -- i think watkins, cooper, OBJ are that next generation of ELITE talents behind the AJ Green/dez bryant/julio type of players that are right at their peak now (all 5 years older). i dont know that all three make it, but i think theres a pretty good shot for each one.

OBJ already rewrote the record books for receivers through 3 years, Julio is the only receiver in the league I would take over him straight up.

Edited April 17, 2017 by TheElectricCompany

[GunnerBill]

There is a nuanced difference between arguing he IS top 5 and arguing he is talented enough (capable in my words) to be a top 5 receiver.

 

I think you can argue the second of those without the stellar production based on proper film study and analysis of the bald statistics. To argue the first I think you do need the production to back it up.

OBJ already rewrote the record books for receivers through 3 years, Julio is the only receiver in the league I would take over him straight up.

Julio, Brown and AJ Green are 1,2,3 for me. I think you can have an argument after that around as many as 6 or 7 guys but I would go Beckham and Bryant.

[TheElectricCompany]

There is a nuanced difference between arguing he IS top 5 and arguing he is talented enough (capable in my words) to be a top 5 receiver.

 

I think you can argue the second of those without the stellar production based on proper film study and analysis of the bald statistics. To argue the first I think you do need the production to back it up.

 

Julio, Brown and AJ Green are 1,2,3 for me. I think you can have an argument after that around as many as 6 or 7 guys but I would go Beckham and Bryant.

Yeah, I would only put OBJ that high because I think he's the best speed threat and his performance in years 1-3 is unprecedented. If he had Julio's size I think you have a case for him being #1.

 

I would rank them:

Julio - OBJ - Antonio Brown - AJ Green - Demaryius Thomas - Dez.

 

However, I don't think the dropoff to guys like Mike Evans, Jordy Nelson, TY Hilton, Larry Fitzgerald and Emmanuel Sanders is very severe. The quality of wide receivers in 2017 is very high.

Edited April 17, 2017 by TheElectricCompany

[GunnerBill]

However, I don't think the dropoff to guys like Mike Evans, Jordy Nelson, TY Hilton, Larry Fitzgerald and Emmanuel Sanders is very severe. The quality of wide receivers in 2017 is very high.

Hopkins, Cooper and Watkins would all be above Sanders and Hilton on my list.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

 

Cap figure could be a reason. I'd rather get Watkins inked to a 6 year deal prior to the end of his deal than pay him $13M base one year THEN have to spread another deal out over six years. The franchise tag is not THAT much higher than $13M.

It is likely right about 10% more unless, some huge deal or retirement/cut happens.

 

So is it worth risking $1.3 million for another season of information AND is there likely to be anyone else they'd need the tag after next season?

 

That's why this isn't a easy choice.

[TheElectricCompany]

Hopkins, Cooper and Watkins would all be above Sanders and Hilton on my list.

 

I respectfully disagree based on production & playmaking ability.

 

Outside of the top 5, I don't really have a firm ranking in mind. I think you could make a case for many guys, but I would argue there are clearly 10 guys that are better than Sammy right now, if not 15.

Edited April 17, 2017 by TheElectricCompany

[GunnerBill]

I respectfully disagree based on production & playmaking ability.

 

Outside of the top 5, I don't really have a firm ranking in mind. I think you could make a case for many guys, but I would argue there are clearly 10 guys that are better than Sammy right now, if not 15.

I don't disagree that beyond the top 3 or 4 (without getting to 5) you can rank many different ways because beyond those top 3 and probably Beckham the way you measure production produces drastically different results and so I think then you have to go to the tape and there is bound to be some subjectivity. I think having Sammy at 15 and behind the likes of Sanders and Hilton is too low. He is a much more complete and talented receiver than they. But if you look just at the bald stat of receiving yards you can make the argument.

 

Personally somewhere between about 8 and 12 feels about right to me for Sammy Watkins at this stage. His ceiling is higher in my opinion than a lot of those other guys but there is something to the argument that ceilings only become relevant when guys reach them.

Edited April 17, 2017 by GunnerBill

[TheElectricCompany]

I don't disagree that beyond the top 3 or 4 (without getting to 5) you can rank many different ways because beyond those top 3 and probably Beckham the way you measure production produces drastically different results and so I think then you have to go to the tape and there is bound to be some subjectivity. I think having Sammy at 15 and behind the likes of Sanders and Hilton is too low. He is a much more complete and talented receiver than they. But if you look just at the bald stat of receiving yards you can make the argument.

 

Personally somewhere between about 8 and 12 feels about right to me for Sammy Watkins at this stage. His ceiling is higher in my opinion than a lot of those other guys but there is something to the argument that ceilings only become relevant when guys reach them.

Fair enough. Problem is, if you take all stats out of the equation, and make it all about "talent" and "completeness", it becomes far too vague and open to interpretation, and that's likely what this "How good is Sammy?" debate comes down (and why I continue to default to production).

Edited April 17, 2017 by TheElectricCompany

[Kirby Jackson]

Fair enough. Problem is, if you take all stats out of the equation, and make it all about "talent" and "completeness", it becomes far too vague and open to interpretation, and that's likely what this "How good is Sammy?" debate comes down (and why I continue to default to production).

But you are defaulting to gross production (which isn't a very good indicator). That's why advanced stats were created. The guy who has 30 carries for 100 yards isn't as effective as the guy who has 15 carries for 96 yards. Watkins hasn't seen the ball like those other guys. If he did his numbers would dwarf many of them. When he has seen it he has been dynamic (like top of the league good). He HAS to stay healthy and that is a fair argument. He has played in 77% of his games so far. He has been grossly misused outside of a 9 game stretch in 2015 after he said "throw me the ball." He led the league in receiving from that point forward. Targets and health are the only things holding him back. I strongly suspect Dennison is going to make a point to get him the football. Here is a look at targets from 2015 (when he was mostly healthy). There are a bunch of guys that got DOUBLE the looks!! Richard Rogers had more balls thrown his way!! That is totally unacceptable. https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/receiving-targeted?season_id=13. It isn't just a QB thing either because Deandre Hopkins is consistently near the top of that list. Edited April 17, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[GunnerBill]

Fair enough. Problem is, if you take all stats out of the equation, and make it all about "talent" and "completeness", it becomes far too vague and open to interpretation, and that's likely what this "How good is Sammy?" debate comes down (and why I continue to default to production).

You misunderstand what I am saying. I am saying beyond those top 4 you can look at what you would call "production" many different way. Yes you can look at bald receiving yards numbers and they will give you one picture - but an incomplete one in my view. Then you have to drill down into targets and what they are doing with those targets whether than be YPC, % of targets for TDs or any other metric.

[TheElectricCompany]

But you are defaulting to gross production (which isn't a very good indicator). That's why advanced stats were created. The guy who has 30 carries for 100 yards isn't as effective as the guy who has 15 carries for 96 yards. Watkins hasn't seen the ball like those other guys. If he did his numbers would dwarf many of them. When he has seen it he has been dynamic (like top of the league good). He HAS to stay healthy and that is a fair argument. He has played in 77% of his games so far. He has been grossly misused outside of a 9 game stretch in 2015 after he said "throw me the ball." He led the league in receiving from that point forward. Targets and health are the only things holding him back. I strongly suspect Dennison is going to make a point to get him the football. Here is a look at targets from 2015 (when he was mostly healthy). There are a bunch of guys that got DOUBLE the looks!! Richard Rogers had more balls thrown his way!! That is totally unacceptable. https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/receiving-targeted?season_id=13. It isn't just a QB thing either because Deandre Hopkins is consistently near the top of that list.

I think gross production can be fine, there are dozens of metrics that could be considered a "standard stat".

 

Advanced stats that inflate or project across an entire season do bug me. You can't just double the the targets and get double the output. The NFL has so many variables that I just don't think it's that simple. He will never see double the targets in a run heavy offense. Now, as I previously mentioned, the quality of opportunities should be much higher than what many WRs are used to, assuming that our run game is setting up a very strong play action game.

 

DT and Sanders in the Kubiak/Dennyson offense both had their numbers fall across the board. Some of that can be blamed on poor QB play, but you have to put some blame on the scheme. Despite having the best WR combo in the league, they focused their energies on getting a run game jump started that never took off. Their play action game was a joke, and the passing game thoroughly missed the WR screens and deep balls that both of those guys have excelled at. We do have a run game in place, so it will be interesting if their offense can be more effective here.

You misunderstand what I am saying. I am saying beyond those top 4 you can look at what you would call "production" many different way. Yes you can look at bald receiving yards numbers and they will give you one picture - but an incomplete one in my view. Then you have to drill down into targets and what they are doing with those targets whether than be YPC, % of targets for TDs or any other metric.

I have never claimed its a simple as yards, that would be too easy to rank 'em that way, but yards are certainly not a throwaway number.

I imagine that we'll never come to a consensus on even 5 key stats that determine the effectiveness of a WR.

Edited April 17, 2017 by TheElectricCompany

[GunnerBill]

I imagine that we'll never come to a consensus on even 5 key stats that determine the effectiveness of a WR.

Probably not which is why I think beyond those obvious stand outs there is room for considerable difference of opinion. I think you are a little low on Sammy but I understand your reasoning even if I don't entirely agree with it.

[What a Tuel]

It is likely right about 10% more unless, some huge deal or retirement/cut happens.

 

So is it worth risking $1.3 million for another season of information AND is there likely to be anyone else they'd need the tag after next season?

 

That's why this isn't a easy choice.

 

So in your opinion, the option is about deciding the best way to keep him rather than what the media will report as "not picking up the 5th year option cause we don't want him".

 

I could agree with that, and that makes this "still deciding on picking up the option" thing make a whole lot more sense.

 

It is absurd that they wouldn't want to like the media is portraying it as.

Edited April 17, 2017 by What a Tuel

[Punching Bag]

https://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/04/17/dan-rooney-dean-blandino-nfl-draft-peter-king

 

4. I think it would be amazing if the Bills—who traded a quarterback-like haul (first-round and fourth-round picks in 2015 to move up five spots in the 2014 draft) to get him—did not pick up the fifth-year option on wideout Sammy Watkins … and it would be a strong indication that the franchise is worried that his lingering foot injury in 2016 is a continuing factor. Watkins has averaged an unimpressive 51 catches a year in his three NFL seasons, missing 11 games due to injury in the process. He never was right all of 2016. But if this is his last year in Buffalo, it could be a harbinger of doom for GM Doug Whaley.

[Kirby Jackson]

I think gross production can be fine, there are dozens of metrics that could be considered a "standard stat".

 

Advanced stats that inflate or project across an entire season do bug me. You can't just double the the targets and get double the output. The NFL has so many variables that I just don't think it's that simple. He will never see double the targets in a run heavy offense. Now, as I previously mentioned, the quality of opportunities should be much higher assuming that our run game is setting up a very strong play action game.

 

DT and Sanders in the Kubiak/Dennyson offense both had their numbers fall across the board. Some of that can be blamed on poor QB play, but you have to put some blame on the scheme. Despite having the best WR combo in the league, they focused their energies on getting a run game jump started that never took off. Their play action game was a joke, and the passing game thoroughly missed the WR screens and deep balls that both of those guys could produced.

We aren't going to agree on gross stats as a good indicator. They are fun to put on a football card but I don't believe that they are a good indicator of anything. That's why advanced stats have taken their place. They normalize things. I don't want to see a comparison between a guy that had the ball thrown to him 96 times vs. a guy that had it thrown to him 160 times (Emmanuel Sanders). I'm not impressed that he had 88 more yards and 3 less TDs on 64 more passes thrown his way.

 

I don't think double the targets will result in double the production. At the same time we shouldn't expect more opportunities to produce drastically different results. The sample size of his career is big enough to project. The projection that I have been using has been at EXACTLY what he has done on a per target basis in his career. At 160 targets for the year, his production in his career would translate to 105 catches, 1,698 yards and 12 TDs. Maybe it would be more, maybe it would be less but what he has done on a per target basis is the best indicator.

 

I wouldn't have Sammy top 5. That is Julio, AB, Green, Beckham and Mike Evans. I think that Sammy has the talent to be in the tier with Julio, AB and Green. At the moment I have him with Dez (also because of health), Nelson and Fitz. The next group I would have Michael Thomas, Marshall, Demaryius, Baldwin, Cooper and Hilton.

 

With that I am going to bow out of this because it is just going round and round. It's okay to disagree.

Edited April 17, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[Bill_with_it]

ill be blunt, because i do this sometimes too, but are you essentially going with the argument despite someone watching the tape, knowing the pro evaluators, etc... that you are going to not believe their assessment because of the stat line and not actually having dug in on the players tape?

 

there are a lot of dudes that go gaga over youtube highlights here, but a few of the guys that you are chatting with put in real effort to this as more than a casual fan. or have solid histories within the bills organization and know the people personally. weve got folks here that do the full game all 22 week in and week out, not just a little WGR feature. some of them mutliple times focusing on different units. i appreciate their efforts a lot, even if i think they are a little crazy delving so deep -- but if it makes them happy, all the better for us.

 

but if you are like me and mostly watch the game live, snag a good breakdown or two, and use common sense -- include the folks kirby mentioned in his post as part of that good breakdown or two.

Just because someone looks at the all 22 100 times and posts her or his opinion of what he or she is viewing means nothing. Has any of these message board scouts worked for an organization in the scouting depqrtment? Went to a scouting school? Interned under a profootball organization in a scouting environment? No what the play call was? Stevie was open more often than not using all 22, using this as criteria as most of someone i this thread insinuate that getting open is indicative of a good receiver, well we know Stevie was nowhere near a top receiver. Thats the problem with the message board scouts. They think they know exactly what the reciever is supposed to do with out knowing what the reciever is supposed to do or the play call. Look Sammy has shown flashes of WHAT COULD BE unfortunately his injuries THUS far warrants a very cautious approach towards getting him locked up long term. As such the BILLS are taking a correct approach this far as they should they are professionals. They know the play call that the message board scouts dont know. They know the wrs dities during the play call that thebmeasage board scouts dont know. They know Sammys work ethic that the message board scouts dont know. They know Sammys injuries, ouchies, and what his medical future holds for right now that the message board scouts dont know.

Finally just because you dumped precious commodities into an asset is no reason to keep a player. The players production/abilities to produce measured in worth towards the organization is the sole reason a player should be retained. Not because you dumped 3 picks on him on draft day.

[TheElectricCompany]

We aren't going to agree on gross stats as a good indicator. They are fun to put on a football card but I don't believe that they are a good indicator of anything. That's why advanced stats have taken their place. They normalize things. I don't want to see a comparison between a guy that had the ball thrown to him 96 times vs. a guy that had it thrown to him 160 times (Emmanuel Sanders). I'm not impressed that he had 88 more yards and 3 less TDs on 64 more passes thrown his way.

 

I don't think double the targets will result in double the production. At the same time we shouldn't expect more opportunities to produce drastically different results. The sample size of his career is big enough to project. The projection that I have been using has been at EXACTLY what he has done on a per target basis in his career. At 160 targets for the year, his production in his career would translate to 105 catches, 1,698 yards and 12 TDs. Maybe it would be more, maybe it would be less but what he has done on a per target basis is the best indicator.

 

I wouldn't have Sammy top 5. That is Julio, AB, Green, Beckham and Mike Evans. I think that Sammy has the talent to be in the tier with Julio, AB and Green. At the moment I have him with Dez (also because of health), Nelson and Fitz. The next group I would have Michael Thomas, Marshall, Demaryius, Baldwin, Cooper and Hilton.

 

With that I am going to bow out of this because it is just going round and round. It's okay to disagree.

Yes, it is. It's certainly gone down a rabbit hole.

Please Sammy, catch a few 70 yards TDs to shut me and Kirby up!

[Kirby Jackson]

Yes, it is. It's certainly gone down a rabbit hole.

Please Sammy, catch a few 70 yards TDs to shut me and Kirby up!

Works for me!!

[NoSaint]

Just because someone looks at the all 22 100 times and posts her or his opinion of what he or she is viewing means nothing. Has any of these message board scouts worked for an organization in the scouting depqrtment? Went to a scouting school? Interned under a profootball organization in a scouting environment? No what the play call was? Stevie was open more often than not using all 22, using this as criteria as most of someone i this thread insinuate that getting open is indicative of a good receiver, well we know Stevie was nowhere near a top receiver. Thats the problem with the message board scouts. They think they know exactly what the reciever is supposed to do with out knowing what the reciever is supposed to do or the play call. Look Sammy has shown flashes of WHAT COULD BE unfortunately his injuries THUS far warrants a very cautious approach towards getting him locked up long term. As such the BILLS are taking a correct approach this far as they should they are professionals. They know the play call that the message board scouts dont know. They know the wrs dities during the play call that thebmeasage board scouts dont know. They know Sammys work ethic that the message board scouts dont know. They know Sammys injuries, ouchies, and what his medical future holds for right now that the message board scouts dont know.

Finally just because you dumped precious commodities into an asset is no reason to keep a player. The players production/abilities to produce measured in worth towards the organization is the sole reason a player should be retained. Not because you dumped 3 picks on him on draft day.

We actually do have guys around that have done the schools, or have a number of friends doing this professionally that help guide their opinions.

 

Additionally, ESPECIALLY at WR it counts for something to say you've actually watched the 22 or been at a lot of games. Otherwise, simply watching cbs on Sunday, you seeing Sammy on like 10% of his snaps

 

So when I call those dudes out on their opinions I tend to make sure I've backed mine up a bit extra or have more resources to support it. That's all.

Yes, it is. It's certainly gone down a rabbit hole.

Please Sammy, catch a few 70 yards TDs to shut me and Kirby up!

And a ton of 15-20 Yarders too

[DefenseWins]

yup. i think you have to.

you still don't cast him aside because of this.

 

Nobody is "casting him aside"... You are making a business decision to make him show you that he can put in a full season before you agree to pay him a boatload of cash... You can always tag him for about 3 million more than picking up the 5th year option right now... If he has an "elite" season this year you sign him to a long term deal... If he has another mediocre season you have a real decision to make... Ultimately he has to stay healthy if he is ever going to achieve "elite" status...

Edited April 18, 2017 by DefenseWins

[3rdand12]

We actually do have guys around that have done the schools, or have a number of friends doing this professionally that help guide their opinions.

 

Additionally, ESPECIALLY at WR it counts for something to say you've actually watched the 22 or been at a lot of games. Otherwise, simply watching cbs on Sunday, you seeing Sammy on like 10% of his snaps

 

So when I call those dudes out on their opinions I tend to make sure I've backed mine up a bit extra or have more resources to support it. That's all.

 

And a ton of 15-20 Yarders too

For those that do not already . You have earned respect here already. For many reasons . Thanks for keeping steady My Friend

 

Nobody is "casting him aside"... You are making a business decision to make him show you that he can put in a full season before you agree to pay him a boatload of cash... You can always tag him for about 3 million more than picking up the 5th year option right now... If he has an "elite" season this year you sign him to a long term deal... If he has another mediocre season you have a real decision to make... Ultimately he has to stay healthy if he is ever going to achieve "elite" status...

Funny thing is, he has his elite year finally and it costs money.

think about that risk reward ratio. Right now it is med + risk. which is enough to frown over for a GM

[Bill_with_it]

For those that do not already . You have earned respect here already. For many reasons . Thanks for keeping steady My Friend

 

Funny thing is, he has his elite year finally and it costs money.

think about that risk reward ratio. Right now it is med + risk. which is enough to frown over for a GM

Theres literally no risk. Julio Jones is making roughly 14.2 mil a year 2 years ago. Antonio Brown signed a contract this year for 17 mil a year with only 19 guaranteed. Were talking about a 1.2-4 mil increase over what his option is if he performs to jj and abs level. On the other hand we save 13 mil if his health continues to keep him from being productive. It really is a buisness decision. Wait and see if I am the Bills.

[Boatdrinks]

Nobody is "casting him aside"... You are making a business decision to make him show you that he can put in a full season before you agree to pay him a boatload of cash... You can always tag him for about 3 million more than picking up the 5th year option right now... If he has an "elite" season this year you sign him to a long term deal... If he has another mediocre season you have a real decision to make... Ultimately he has to stay healthy if he is ever going to achieve "elite" status...

The trouble with this approach is if he has an " elite " season as you put it. Then he is a FA and his price goes way up. If you tag him, you risk losing the player because they hate being tagged. You can be assured he will have no inclination to re-sign here for the show of no confidence they gave by not picking up his option. Decisions like these are what GMs get paid big $$ for. It's just not so easy as saying you don't pick the option up. If you don't pick it up, then plan on the player departing.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

 

So in your opinion, the option is about deciding the best way to keep him rather than what the media will report as "not picking up the 5th year option cause we don't want him".

 

I could agree with that, and that makes this "still deciding on picking up the option" thing make a whole lot more sense.

 

It is absurd that they wouldn't want to like the media is portraying it as.

Sort of. I think you take another year to determine what a good value is for him.

 

See, if they pick up the option, he's making 13.5 million in 2018, even if he plays 1 game and posts 10 yrds in 2017 unless there are some clauses...

 

However, if he posts an average year, maybe he can be tagged, then they attempt a better value long term deal closer to an average price point.

 

if he demands top 5 money and his production and availability haven't warranted it, maybe you look to move on. Or tag him for one more year then Let him walk or use one of the other types of tags that get you more in return.

 

Conversely if he blows up and sets records, you can still tag him and then figure out some long term deal that works...

 

In my view it's better business to pass on the option and yes.... it is unfortunate the media extracts the polarizing factoids from the conversation to build their own more dramatic narrative. But hey drama sells

[White Linen]

To this team he's already worth the 5th year option money. I think this has to be about whether that foot is a real long term concern.

 

April 20th is veteran camp and after they're satisfied the foot is good - they will pick up the 5th year.

[34-78-83]

I get it but even here "his teams don't win." They have won half of their games since his first draft as the GM. No one is saying that he is perfect but has been okay. If you analyze each and every decision that he has made as the GM you are going to find a lot of good. Reading TBD you'd think that the roster looked like 2006.

 

In terms of a "job that people would kill for" he earned it with the work that he did in Pittsburgh. I know for a fact that he could go back there tomorrow if he were fired. Kevin Colbert thinks very highly of him. The conversation is much better on here when we deal in reality. No one is saying that he is great but a lot of people are saying that he is awful. The truth lies somewhere in between.

 

I guess that I am just kind of exhausted by the Bills hate amongst Bills fans. The last year or so has gotten really bad. There used to be some things that we liked and some that we didn't. Now, to Gunner's point, no matter what they do the vocal majority hates it. It is guilty until proven innocent. They sign a guy that 90% of us have never seen play but automatically he sucks, because Bills. I just long for the days when things would be discussed and stand on their own merit. As an example, I loved the Hyde signing but thought they should tendered TD MG higher. I would say that is 1 good and 1 bad.

You aren't alone in this thought. Well put.

[3rdand12]

Sort of. I think you take another year to determine what a good value is for him.

 

See, if they pick up the option, he's making 13.5 million in 2018, even if he plays 1 game and posts 10 yrds in 2017 unless there are some clauses...

 

However, if he posts an average year, maybe he can be tagged, then they attempt a better value long term deal closer to an average price point.

 

if he demands top 5 money and his production and availability haven't warranted it, maybe you look to move on. Or tag him for one more year then Let him walk or use one of the other types of tags that get you more in return.

 

Conversely if he blows up and sets records, you can still tag him and then figure out some long term deal that works...

 

In my view it's better business to pass on the option and yes.... it is unfortunate the media extracts the polarizing factoids from the conversation to build their own more dramatic narrative. But hey drama sells

I think this covers a lot of ground. Thanks !

[Maury Ballstein]

Pay that man his money

[Wayne Arnold]

It's a great feature, but that doesn't mean we're any better at analyzing players. We're all just casual fans who have no idea on how to watch tape and measure play by play performance.

 

Goodness. It's football, not rocket science.

[dbflaBill]

If reports of the Bills not looking to extend Sammy are true, and for those fans that think hes a bust. His first 3 years compare very similar to Julio Jones first three. and Julio has Matt Ryan throwing to him

 

JJ

34 games played 174 receptions, 2737yds 20tds

 

sammy

37 games played 153 receptions 2459yds 17tds

 

Neither the Bills nor anyone should really be dogging sammy, and if the Bills let him walk it'd be a total joke. The stats are very comparable, if anything Sammy is the more productive WR based on the qbs he has had throwing to him.

[YoloinOhio]

@adamschefter

Cowboys officially have picked up 5th-year option for star guard Zack Martin, per @FieldYates.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Look, I'm very much for picking up the 5th year, but here's another comparison for Julio and Sammy:

 

JJ:

6'3"

220 lbs

33.75" arms

9.75" hands

4.39 40

38.5" Vertical

135" Broad

6.66 3-cone

4.25 20-yard shuttle

11.07 60 yard shuttle

 

 

SW:

6'1"

211 lbs

32" arms

9.625" hands

4.43 40

34" Vertical

126" Broad

6.95 3-cone

4.34 20-yard shuttle

[dbflaBill]

I'm not doubting JJ is the better WR. But Sammy measurables being less than JJ, further prove my point. He is close statistically with JJ in the first three years having less measurables and a much worse QB..