JDG Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 (edited) Here's some fun with the playoff simulator: The Bills have two main playoff scenarios (ignoring exotic scenarios like getting a Wild Card at 8-8 (6% chance according to NY Times simulator) or getting in at 9-7 while losing to the Jets (14% chance!).) (A) Bills get in the playoffs at 10-6 by winning the rest of their games, AND any ONE of the following: (1) Pittsburgh loses to Cincinnati AND Bills win strength of victory tiebreaker (2) Any TWO Pittsburgh Losses (3) Any TWO Kansas City Losses (B) Bills get in the playoffs at 9-7 by going 2-1 vs. the NFC East, beating the NY Jets, AND any THREE of the following: (1) Any ONE other NY Jets Loss (2) Any ONE Oakland Loss (3) Any TWO Pittsburgh Losses (4) Any THREE Kansas City Losses So, let's say that over Weeks 14 and 15 the following happens: (1) Buffalo beats Philly and Washington (2) Pittsburgh loses to Cincinnati and Denver (3) Oakland loses at Denver and/or vs. Green Bay (4) NY Jets lose at Dallas If those four things all happen, then the necessary conditions for the Bills making the playoffs iin both Scenario A and in Scenario B would be fulfilled. Thus, Buffalo would enter the game against Dallas knowing that win or lose vs. Dallas they could clinch a playoff berth the following week at home against the NY Jets. And in fact, so long as the Jets don't lose both games, the Bills would know that they had no "clinching" scenarios in Week 16 either - i.e., win or lose against Dallas, they would still be "in the hunt" for Week 17. The game of course wouldn't be really meaningless, because a win vs. Dallas would give the Bills a few tiny "backdoor" scenarios for making the playoffs even with a Jets loss - but it nevertheless could be a game in which there isn't all that much on the line as we normally think of it. Edited December 9, 2015 by JDG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HardyBoy Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Thanks for the detailed breakdown!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerme1 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Ya thanks. I feel FAR less confident after you've laid this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norton20 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Need a Steelers loss desperately to Cinci. Damn Jax game was a killer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CowgirlsFan Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Meaningless??? NO WAY!!! Even IF both teams are out of the race beating the Cowboys would be a nice feather in the Bills cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 The Jets play the Patriots and the Bills in the final two games. They can lose to the Patriots and then the week 17 game at Orchard park could decide our fate. Of course, the Bills have to take care of business this week in Philadelphia first. Even if KC loses in the next few weeks, their schedule is easy enough for them to grab that WC. The final WC comes to how the Bills, Jets and Steelers play in the upcoming weeks. The Steelers have the hardest schedule, but have an all-pro QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Winning the next 2 and then losing to Matt Cassel and the Cowboys at home sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Winning the next 2 and then losing to Matt Cassel and the Cowboys at home sounds about right. The bills have already lost too many home games. They better win the next two at home against Dallas and NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Meaningless??? NO WAY!!! Even IF both teams are out of the race beating the Cowboys would be a nice feather in the Bills cap. ^ This. Thank you CGF. If they're keeping score, it's an important game. Maroon's squad would have been 8-8 except for a meaningless game at Gillette*. Yet it's bandied about here as a semi-glorious feat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFergy Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 I failed Algebra in high school (didn't fail it outright but I got a D)....these playoff scenarios give me flashbacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All_Pro_Bills Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 (edited) In looking at the scenarios and the schedules I've pretty much conceded 1 wild card spot to the Chiefs. I see the competition for the final spot between the Bills, Steelers, and Jets as the most likely outcome. The Steelers have the Bengals and Broncos left on their schedule. If they win both of those frankly they deserve the playoff spot. The Bills just need to win out. For all purposes its playoff time now. Lose and they're out. But none of the 4 games left are against an 'elite' QB which has pretty much been an automatic loss with this crew. Rex generally doesn't let an average QB beat his defense. That means the games should be decided by how well the Bills offense executes and protects the football. I just don't see them losing to Dallas based on the performance of their offense I've watched without Romo. Just dreadful. The defense is good. I wasn't all that impressed with the Redskins on Monday night either. I haven't watched much of them and expected better based on the pre-game build up. The Eagles game is a toss up at this point and their victory over New England was due to some rare mistakes by the Patriots rather than stellar play from the Eagles. They got lucky. It might boil down to week 17 and a winner take all battle with the Jets for the final spot. A game between two teams that have brutally disappointed their fan base in the past when the chips are on the line. Edited December 9, 2015 by All_Pro_Bills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JÂy RÛßeÒ Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 JDG???!?!?!?!?! Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r00tabaga Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 So what you're saying is, let's watch these last four games. Gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVABillsFan Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 (edited) The Bills need to win every game to stand a chance. And even then they won't make it if Pitt doesn't lose 1 or 2 games. The microsecond they think they don't need a win the season is over for sure. For all intents and purposes they are in the playoffs now. 1 loss = watching the playoffs from their couches. (2) Pittsburgh loses to Cincinnati and Denver The games are @ Cincy and Denver plays @ Pittsburgh with Osweiler Edited December 9, 2015 by NOVABillsFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filthymcnasty08 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 I think that we are going to find that the Jacksonville game was full of meaning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVABillsFan Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 (edited) To he honest, there are 2 or 3 other losses one can point to for the reason as well. Most recently KC (like the Raiders last season). We can point to the Giants game in Buffalo as the Giants have lost what 3 or 4 games with a 10 point lead late in the game. We can even point to the last game against NE where Leodis McFumbles again gave the game away. Yes, losing early has an impact but just look at KC, Indy, Houston. All of them have had bad starts and are playing strong. IMO losing late in the season can be devastating. Edited December 9, 2015 by NOVABillsFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zonabb Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Can't see this team winning back-to-back road games against teams that albeit have bad records but are in the playoff hunt themselves and have no reason to roll over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 by then, dallas backups will be playing for their nfl future. the only so called "meaningless" games are when winning playoff teams have secured their seeding and rest some starters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Linen Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 I think that we are going to find that the Jacksonville game was full of meaning. I believe we already understand. We need our starting QB to play in order to have a chance to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DriveFor1Outta5 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 (edited) I think that we are going to find that the Jacksonville game was full of meaning. I keep reading this all over this forum. Of course it was, every loss is. The Jacksonville game shouldn't be viewed as a game that we should have won. EJ was the starting QB and Sammy was out. Looking back at it, we really shouldn't have expected any different. Plus mathematically speaking the KC loss was far more damaging. We are one game behind them with a loss to them. Add the fact they have an easy schedule coming up, and that loss affected us more. Had we beat Jacksonville and still lose to KC we would be in a 7-5 tie with them. Considering KC's easy schedule there is a high probability we lose out to them. Beat KC and we hold the tie breaker while controlling our own destiny. The Jacksonville loss was embarrassing, but the KC loss was more damaging imo. We were rolling heading into halftime. Then we decided to stop throwing to Sammy, and Rex's defense made Alex Smith look like Montana. We really shouldn't have lost that game. I'm not saying it isn't fair to be frustrated with the Jacksonville game. Personally I'm just more frustrated with the KC debacle. I don't expect any wins with EJ on the field. Edited December 9, 2015 by DriveFor1Outta5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estro Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Here's some fun with the playoff simulator: The Bills have two main playoff scenarios (ignoring exotic scenarios like getting a Wild Card at 8-8 (6% chance according to NY Times simulator) or getting in at 9-7 while losing to the Jets (14% chance!).) (A) Bills get in the playoffs at 10-6 by winning the rest of their games, AND any ONE of the following: (1) Pittsburgh loses to Cincinnati AND Bills win strength of victory tiebreaker (2) Any TWO Pittsburgh Losses (3) Any TWO Kansas City Losses (B) Bills get in the playoffs at 9-7 by going 2-1 vs. the NFC East, beating the NY Jets, AND any THREE of the following: (1) Any ONE other NY Jets Loss (2) Any ONE Oakland Loss (3) Any TWO Pittsburgh Losses (4) Any THREE Kansas City Losses So, let's say that over Weeks 14 and 15 the following happens: (1) Buffalo beats Philly and Washington (2) Pittsburgh loses to Cincinnati and Denver (3) Oakland loses at Denver and/or vs. Green Bay (4) NY Jets lose at Dallas If those four things all happen, then the necessary conditions for the Bills making the playoffs iin both Scenario A and in Scenario B would be fulfilled. Thus, Buffalo would enter the game against Dallas knowing that win or lose vs. Dallas they could clinch a playoff berth the following week at home against the NY Jets. And in fact, so long as the Jets don't lose both games, the Bills would know that they had no "clinching" scenarios in Week 16 either - i.e., win or lose against Dallas, they would still be "in the hunt" for Week 17. The game of course wouldn't be really meaningless, because a win vs. Dallas would give the Bills a few tiny "backdoor" scenarios for making the playoffs even with a Jets loss - but it nevertheless could be a game in which there isn't all that much on the line as we normally think of it. Exact tie breaking procedures for wildcard teams is as follows (from NFL.com): Three or More Clubs(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.) Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.) Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four. Strength of victory. Strength of schedule. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed. Best net points in conference games. Best net points in all games. Best net touchdowns in all games. Coin toss So my question is if the Steelers beat the Bengals this weekend, doesn's that kill us in tie breaker rule #4. Are common opponents with the Steelers are Patriots, Bengals, Colts and Chiefs. We would be 1-4 in those games, Steelers would be 2-3 if they beat the Bengals. I'm slowly realizing that the Steelers must lose to the Bengals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Quint Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Im pretty sure that 4merper4mer already told us in week 1 that the Dallas game would be a good one to lose. Not sure why its such a surprise to everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estro Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Also as a follow up this is currently where all teams strength of victory stands: http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff Steelers remaining games (@CIN 10-2, DEN 10-2, @BAL 4-8, @CLE 2-10) Bills remaining games (@PHI 5-7, @WAS 5-7, DAL 4-8, NYJ 7-5) Bills currently have a .444 strength of victory %, Steelers currently have a .405 strength of victory %. Assuming the Bills win out, all Bills fans should be rooting for our remaining opponents to win th games they're not playing us......and for the Steelers remaining opponents to lose the games that they're not playing the Steelers. Remember if Steelers beat Bengals this weekend, they must lose 2 of their last 3 games for Bills to beat them in tie breaking scenarios (extremely unlikely). I have little confidence in Matt Schaub or Johnny Manziel beating the Steelers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Don't care. Those bastages beat us in two SB's and I do not forget. I hope we beat Jerry by 40 points!!!!! Embarrass the hell out of them. Besides, we go into week 17 with momentum. 10-6 here we come!!!! Go Bills! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 I think that we are going to find that the Jacksonville game was full of meaning. As of now it didn't have much more meaning than any of the others. Certainly less than KC. Why dwell on JAX game? They had to start their backup QB and he had a supreme meltdown. And no WRs. The lost opportunities were games that Tyrod started and they were relatively healthy. You have to win those, and if they don't make the playoffs it will be due to the starters not getting it done. Not a game where they fielded a taxi squad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chandler#81 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Also as a follow up this is currently where all teams strength of victory stands: http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff Steelers remaining games (@CIN 10-2, DEN 10-2, @BAL 4-8, @CLE 2-10) Bills remaining games (@PHI 5-7, @WAS 5-7, DAL 4-8, NYJ 7-5) Bills currently have a .444 strength of victory %, Steelers currently have a .405 strength of victory %. Assuming the Bills win out, all Bills fans should be rooting for our remaining opponents to win th games they're not playing us......and for the Steelers remaining opponents to lose the games that they're not playing the Steelers. Remember if Steelers beat Bengals this weekend, they must lose 2 of their last 3 games for Bills to beat them in tie breaking scenarios (extremely unlikely). I have little confidence in Matt Schaub or Johnny Manziel beating the Steelers. One way this won't happen is the NFCLeast play each other on the last game. 2 of them will win that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchmurraydowntown Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Lose and the season is lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDS Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 JDG???!?!?!?!?! Wow... Ha! I said the same thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santana Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Awesome breakdown, pretty much Buffalo controls their own destiny. We need these next two games BADLY!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDG Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 Ha! I said the same thing... Thanks Jay and SDS! Yup, its been a long time...... :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Thanks Jay and SDS! Yup, its been a long time...... :-) I take it the Ravens don't need the band now that the team sucks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDG Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 Exact tie breaking procedures for wildcard teams is as follows (from NFL.com): Three or More Clubs(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.) Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.) Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four. Strength of victory. Strength of schedule. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed. Best net points in conference games. Best net points in all games. Best net touchdowns in all games. Coin toss So my question is if the Steelers beat the Bengals this weekend, doesn's that kill us in tie breaker rule #4. Are common opponents with the Steelers are Patriots, Bengals, Colts and Chiefs. We would be 1-4 in those games, Steelers would be 2-3 if they beat the Bengals. I'm slowly realizing that the Steelers must lose to the Bengals. In answer to your question, if the Bills and Steelers tie with a 9-7 record, that will most likely be because the Bills beat the Jets and lost to the Eagles, Redskins, or Cowboys. That would mean that the Bills would beat the Steelers on Tiebreaker #3 by virtue of having 7 conference wins to the Steelers' conference wins. If the Bills and Steelers tie at 10-6 - it would be exactly as you describe if the Steelers beat the Bengals, the Steelers beat us on tiebreaker #4. On the other hand, if the Bills and Steelers tie at 10-6, with a Steelers loss to the Bengals, then it goes to tiebreaker #5. But yes, the Bills really need the Bengals to beat the Steelers. To put it in perspective, right now the NY Times Playoff simulator gives the Bills a 23% chance of making the playoffs. Those odds go up to 46% with a Bills victory over the Eagles and a Bengals victory over the Steelers. However, those odds go down to just 17% if a Bills win over the Eagles is paired with a Steelers win over the Bengals. JDG I take it the Ravens don't need the band now that the team sucks? Hah! You have a very good memory! In all credit to the Ravens band - that organization has actually been in continuous operation since the days of the Baltimore Colts. If they can operate for more than decade without even a football team - they'll definitely survive a few bad seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDG Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 Also as a follow up this is currently where all teams strength of victory stands: http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff Steelers remaining games (@CIN 10-2, DEN 10-2, @BAL 4-8, @CLE 2-10) Bills remaining games (@PHI 5-7, @WAS 5-7, DAL 4-8, NYJ 7-5) Bills currently have a .444 strength of victory %, Steelers currently have a .405 strength of victory %. Assuming the Bills win out, all Bills fans should be rooting for our remaining opponents to win th games they're not playing us......and for the Steelers remaining opponents to lose the games that they're not playing the Steelers. Remember if Steelers beat Bengals this weekend, they must lose 2 of their last 3 games for Bills to beat them in tie breaking scenarios (extremely unlikely). I have little confidence in Matt Schaub or Johnny Manziel beating the Steelers. Strength of victory tiebreaker only kicks in if the Bills win out and the Steelers lose to the Bengals and then win out. So its likely a moot point. However, if the strength of victory tiebreaker comes in to play, Bills fans should root for the Browns to lose (since Steelers would likely have swept them), as well as for the Chargers to lose (except for maybe each of their games against KC), and also root against the Cardinals (darn it Vikings!). Bills fans should root for the Texans, Titans, and Dolphins to beat the Patriots and for the same three teams to beat the Colts. Everything else is a bit murkier in terms of playoff implications. JDG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Thanks Jay and SDS! Yup, its been a long time...... :-) I didn't believe it was you until I saw the gadfly designation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JÂy RÛßeÒ Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 I didn't believe it was you until I saw the gadfly designation That makes two of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norton20 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 I keep reading this all over this forum. Of course it was, every loss is. The Jacksonville game shouldn't be viewed as a game that we should have won. EJ was the starting QB and Sammy was out. Looking back at it, we really shouldn't have expected any different. Plus mathematically speaking the KC loss was far more damaging. We are one game behind them with a loss to them. Add the fact they have an easy schedule coming up, and that loss affected us more. Had we beat Jacksonville and still lose to KC we would be in a 7-5 tie with them. Considering KC's easy schedule there is a high probability we lose out to them. Beat KC and we hold the tie breaker while controlling our own destiny. The Jacksonville loss was embarrassing, but the KC loss was more damaging imo. We were rolling heading into halftime. Then we decided to stop throwing to Sammy, and Rex's defense made Alex Smith look like Montana. We really shouldn't have lost that game. I'm not saying it isn't fair to be frustrated with the Jacksonville game. Personally I'm just more frustrated with the KC debacle. I don't expect any wins with EJ on the field. My complaint is that they needed 1 stop from the defense to win that game. 1 stop. EJ or not. The D had jax controlled the whole second half but could not stop them to win the game. That is an awful loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dollars 2 donuts Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Winning the next 2 and then losing to Matt Cassel and the Cowboys at home sounds about right. 2014 Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr couldn't agree more. For crying out loud you can almost smell it...joy and jubilation; we control our own destiny - then whoops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Winning the next 2 and then losing to Matt Cassel and the Cowboys at home sounds about right. 2014 Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr couldn't agree more. For crying out loud you can almost smell it...joy and jubilation; we control our own destiny - then whoops. +2 for BBFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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