Deep dive on 2024 WR class - Beane’s analysis is in line with this

[Big Blitz]

And my hunch is we want Franklin.  Anyway:
 

 

On the class…..

 

The best? Almost certainly not.

 

ESPN’s Matt Miller speculated we could see eight WRs drafted in Round 1. But I’d give only three WRs from this class a Round 1 grade. Granted, those three WRs are freaking awesome — I have this year’s WR3 ranked above any WR from the last two Draft classes. But after the Big-3, I’m not seeing any WRs with real WR1-upside. I’m just seeing a whole lot of landing spot-dependent WR2s and WR3s.

 

The most overrated? Possibly. This is not a great draft class based on the analytics. At the very least, it doesn’t look anywhere near as strong or as deep as 2021.

 

Genuinely, I don’t ever remember a WR class where the film and analytics were so misaligned. And it almost felt as though the less I liked a player’s analytics, the more highly regarded they were by the Mock Draft Industrial Complex. (The inverse of this was true as well.)

 

What metrics are actually predictive at the WR position? Basically, all of the stats I’m using in this article. Generally, the more often a stat is referenced (such as career YPRR), the more predictive it is.
 

 

Worthy:

 

Without getting too deep into the weeds here (we’ll save that for the footnotes), I’ll just say that… Worthy’s 22.8 BMI ranks the 10th-lowest of any WR since at least 2000. Among the 45 lightest WRs, DeVonta Smith (24.1)[16] is the only one to post a 1,000-yard season in the NFL. So, even if the NFL appears to care less about low-weight / thin-frame WRs in recent years[17], the overall track record is pretty abhorrent.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s much easier to argue that Franklin has no worse than the fourth-best production profile in this class than to argue that he’s the WR9

 

 

https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2024/pre-nfl-draft-rookie-wr-dynasty-rankings

 

Edited April 26 by Big Blitz

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

I think we would all be thrilled to land Franklin anywhere in the second round.

[The Frankish Reich]

23 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

And my hunch is we want Franklin.  Anyway:
 

 

On the class…..

 

The best? Almost certainly not.

 

ESPN’s Matt Miller speculated we could see eight WRs drafted in Round 1. But I’d give only three WRs from this class a Round 1 grade. Granted, those three WRs are freaking awesome — I have this year’s WR3 ranked above any WR from the last two Draft classes. But after the Big-3, I’m not seeing any WRs with real WR1-upside. I’m just seeing a whole lot of landing spot-dependent WR2s and WR3s.

 

The most overrated? Possibly. This is not a great draft class based on the analytics. At the very least, it doesn’t look anywhere near as strong or as deep as 2021.

 

Genuinely, I don’t ever remember a WR class where the film and analytics were so misaligned. And it almost felt as though the less I liked a player’s analytics, the more highly regarded they were by the Mock Draft Industrial Complex. (The inverse of this was true as well.)

 

What metrics are actually predictive at the WR position? Basically, all of the stats I’m using in this article. Generally, the more often a stat is referenced (such as career YPRR), the more predictive it is.
 

 

Worthy:

 

Without getting too deep into the weeds here (we’ll save that for the footnotes), I’ll just say that… Worthy’s 22.8 BMI ranks the 10th-lowest of any WR since at least 2000. Among the 45 lightest WRs, DeVonta Smith (24.1)[16] is the only one to post a 1,000-yard season in the NFL. So, even if the NFL appears to care less about low-weight / thin-frame WRs in recent years[17], the overall track record is pretty abhorrent.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s much easier to argue that Franklin has no worse than the fourth-best production profile in this class than to argue that he’s the WR9

 

 

Thanks. Great summary!

[Rad Likes The Bills]

ITS GOING TO BE FRANKLIN🦆

[zevo]

3 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Thanks. Great summary!

 

27 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

And my hunch is we want Franklin.  Anyway:
 

 

On the class…..

 

The best? Almost certainly not.

 

ESPN’s Matt Miller speculated we could see eight WRs drafted in Round 1. But I’d give only three WRs from this class a Round 1 grade. Granted, those three WRs are freaking awesome — I have this year’s WR3 ranked above any WR from the last two Draft classes. But after the Big-3, I’m not seeing any WRs with real WR1-upside. I’m just seeing a whole lot of landing spot-dependent WR2s and WR3s.

 

The most overrated? Possibly. This is not a great draft class based on the analytics. At the very least, it doesn’t look anywhere near as strong or as deep as 2021.

 

Genuinely, I don’t ever remember a WR class where the film and analytics were so misaligned. And it almost felt as though the less I liked a player’s analytics, the more highly regarded they were by the Mock Draft Industrial Complex. (The inverse of this was true as well.)

 

What metrics are actually predictive at the WR position? Basically, all of the stats I’m using in this article. Generally, the more often a stat is referenced (such as career YPRR), the more predictive it is.
 

 

Worthy:

 

Without getting too deep into the weeds here (we’ll save that for the footnotes), I’ll just say that… Worthy’s 22.8 BMI ranks the 10th-lowest of any WR since at least 2000. Among the 45 lightest WRs, DeVonta Smith (24.1)[16] is the only one to post a 1,000-yard season in the NFL. So, even if the NFL appears to care less about low-weight / thin-frame WRs in recent years[17], the overall track record is pretty abhorrent.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s much easier to argue that Franklin has no worse than the fourth-best production profile in this class than to argue that he’s the WR9

 

 

Great breakdown. I def think they are targeting Franklin 

[SoonerBillsFan]

26 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

And my hunch is we want Franklin.  Anyway:
 

 

On the class…..

 

The best? Almost certainly not.

 

ESPN’s Matt Miller speculated we could see eight WRs drafted in Round 1. But I’d give only three WRs from this class a Round 1 grade. Granted, those three WRs are freaking awesome — I have this year’s WR3 ranked above any WR from the last two Draft classes. But after the Big-3, I’m not seeing any WRs with real WR1-upside. I’m just seeing a whole lot of landing spot-dependent WR2s and WR3s.

 

The most overrated? Possibly. This is not a great draft class based on the analytics. At the very least, it doesn’t look anywhere near as strong or as deep as 2021.

 

Genuinely, I don’t ever remember a WR class where the film and analytics were so misaligned. And it almost felt as though the less I liked a player’s analytics, the more highly regarded they were by the Mock Draft Industrial Complex. (The inverse of this was true as well.)

 

What metrics are actually predictive at the WR position? Basically, all of the stats I’m using in this article. Generally, the more often a stat is referenced (such as career YPRR), the more predictive it is.
 

 

Worthy:

 

Without getting too deep into the weeds here (we’ll save that for the footnotes), I’ll just say that… Worthy’s 22.8 BMI ranks the 10th-lowest of any WR since at least 2000. Among the 45 lightest WRs, DeVonta Smith (24.1)[16] is the only one to post a 1,000-yard season in the NFL. So, even if the NFL appears to care less about low-weight / thin-frame WRs in recent years[17], the overall track record is pretty abhorrent.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s much easier to argue that Franklin has no worse than the fourth-best production profile in this class than to argue that he’s the WR9

 

 

When you look at analytics that matter, Franklin is high on most lists. If he is who Buffalo wants then use #33 and grab him.  There is going to be A run on WR's starting top of 2nd round.

[Logic]

Thanks for this.

Putting aside my irritation over trading with the Chiefs in general...

I said earlier this draft season that Troy Franklin might be the 4th or 5th best WR in this class, and seems criminally underrated. He had a good season as a sophomore and then a REALLY good season as a SR. The numbers you provide back up the idea that he's very underrated and under-discussed.

If the Bills wind up with Franklin, I'll be very pleased. I like him worlds better than McConkey or Mitchell.

Here's hoping...

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

How concerned should we be with Franklin's weight? He's 176 and three inches taller than Xavier Worthy. 

[Logic]

 

[Mat68]

I think most agreed after Top 3 wrs rest are all similar graded players.  5 people have 5 different orders of players.  Wr picked in rd 2 is likley similarly graded or graded higher than the players selected at 28 and 32.  They were favorites but both have lots of questions.  This is the meat of the wr class.  Rds 2 and 3 is the bulk of the class.  

 

 I also heard some nuggets that over 100 draft-able prospects went back to college.   Due to NIL they would be better going back to school instead of being late picks.  With transfer portal and NIL starters make about the same as a low pick but may better their position for next year.  I dont think Beane drafts a player after 160.  Trading those late picks for earlier ones is just as important as getting that 3rd.  I suspect Buffalo have 160ish draft grades.  Rest are priorty FAs.   I suspect those late picks are moved today or early tomorrow. 
 

Buffalo is going value.  I suspect Dejean or Newton. I lean Newton because of a higher position of value vs Saftey.  Than a combo of 2 wrs with the other day 2 picks.  Maybe im wrong and they love Polk, Mcconkey, Mitchell and take them at 33.   These are the same players discussed for weeks at 28 still available now plus a 3rd and multiple late picks improved by 40 spots. 

[Low Positive]

10 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

How concerned should we be with Franklin's weight? He's 176 and three inches taller than Xavier Worthy. 

That's the concern, together with the poor combine performance. 

[dave mcbride]

55 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

And my hunch is we want Franklin.  Anyway:
 

 

On the class…..

 

The best? Almost certainly not.

 

ESPN’s Matt Miller speculated we could see eight WRs drafted in Round 1. But I’d give only three WRs from this class a Round 1 grade. Granted, those three WRs are freaking awesome — I have this year’s WR3 ranked above any WR from the last two Draft classes. But after the Big-3, I’m not seeing any WRs with real WR1-upside. I’m just seeing a whole lot of landing spot-dependent WR2s and WR3s.

 

The most overrated? Possibly. This is not a great draft class based on the analytics. At the very least, it doesn’t look anywhere near as strong or as deep as 2021.

 

Genuinely, I don’t ever remember a WR class where the film and analytics were so misaligned. And it almost felt as though the less I liked a player’s analytics, the more highly regarded they were by the Mock Draft Industrial Complex. (The inverse of this was true as well.)

 

What metrics are actually predictive at the WR position? Basically, all of the stats I’m using in this article. Generally, the more often a stat is referenced (such as career YPRR), the more predictive it is.
 

 

Worthy:

 

Without getting too deep into the weeds here (we’ll save that for the footnotes), I’ll just say that… Worthy’s 22.8 BMI ranks the 10th-lowest of any WR since at least 2000. Among the 45 lightest WRs, DeVonta Smith (24.1)[16] is the only one to post a 1,000-yard season in the NFL. So, even if the NFL appears to care less about low-weight / thin-frame WRs in recent years[17], the overall track record is pretty abhorrent.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s much easier to argue that Franklin has no worse than the fourth-best production profile in this class than to argue that he’s the WR9

 

 

https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2024/pre-nfl-draft-rookie-wr-dynasty-rankings

 

Also interesting to note that the Bills possess two players who are tied at 13th for the fastest 40 times ever! 

[BuffaloBillyG]

Yeah, Franklin was always in play. People did as they often do and talked themselves into many others due to personal preference and the latest gossip. 

 

They did some work on Roman Wilson as well FWIW. He may be the fallback option or the second of a double dip.

Edited April 26 by BuffaloBillyG

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Yeah, Franklin was always in play. People did as they often do and talked themselves into many others due to personal preference and the latest gossip. 

 

They did some work on Raman Wilson as well FWIW. He may be the fallback option or the second of a double dip.

If Franklin is the guy they should just take him with 33. No need to get too cute and risk NE taking him. NE just drafted a potential franchise QB and they have no receivers, after all.

[MJS]

Ladd McConkey is high on those lists as well. I'd be fine with either one.

[Logic]

Just now, MJS said:

Ladd McConkey is high on those lists as well. I'd be fine with either one.

I understand there's more to a prospect's profile than college production, and I understand that McConkey was in a crowded receiver room, but...

Taking a look at the numbers McConkey posted at Georgia certainly doesn't inspire much confidence that he can be an NFL WR1. 

Maybe some big McConkey fan here can explain to me what's so special about him.

[BuffaloBillyG]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

If Franklin is the guy they should just take him with 33. No need to get too cute and risk NE taking him. NE just drafted a potential franchise QB and they have no receivers, after all.

I agree with that...unless they have Franklin and Wilson or possibly McConkey grades close enough that it doesn't matter to them which they get. Then I can see another small drop back maybe to Washington's spot. 

 

And that's if they pick a WR early tonight at all. As long as DeJean is there when the Bills pick it's a worry.

[TheBeaneBandit]

Josh Allen likes Coleman too.....duck and runs😂😆🤣.

[The Frankish Reich]

27 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

How concerned should we be with Franklin's weight? He's 176 and three inches taller than Xavier Worthy. 

I'm no scout, but this reminds me of what we see when MLB scouts talk about "projectability." Worthy just looks like a guy who will always be skinny, not the guy who may fill out and gain strength/weight as he matures. Franklin seems to have more of a projectable frame. So if they were pitching prospects, I think we'd see something like "Franklin has the frame to fill out and add 2-3 mph to his fastball."

[2003Contenders]

8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

If Franklin is the guy they should just take him with 33. No need to get too cute and risk NE taking him. NE just drafted a potential franchise QB and they have no receivers, after all.

I agree -- the only caveat I have is that if there is as great of demand for other teams to move up to #33 as Beane claims, he would be hard-pressed to avoid trading down if an offer comes in that is too good to refuse.

[Nephilim17]

Wouldn't it be amazing if... we get Franklin and he turns out to be one of the best WRs in the class? After the combine crap-show, after all the drama and the trading down?

Added bonus: Worthy becomes a track-star JAG in the NFL.

Not saying either will happen but wouldn't it be sweet? And Beane is totally vindicated. 

[Solomon Grundy]

15 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

Josh Allen likes Coleman too.....duck and runs😂😆🤣.

He's open when he's not open!! 

[MJS]

24 minutes ago, Logic said:

I understand there's more to a prospect's profile than college production, and I understand that McConkey was in a crowded receiver room, but...

Taking a look at the numbers McConkey posted at Georgia certainly doesn't inspire much confidence that he can be an NFL WR1. 

Maybe some big McConkey fan here can explain to me what's so special about him.

Production is one factor. Ideally you look at their traits and skills, though. McConkey seems like a good, do everything receiver who can line up inside or outside. He is fast (4.39 40). Great RAS score of 9.40 out of 10 (I think this includes his pro day agility tests since he didn't do that at the combine?). He is smart and a good route runner. Good hands.

 

I think his lack of production was do to some injuries, and he isn't big or strong, so that's a knock on him.

[KOKBILLS]

36 minutes ago, Rad Likes The Bills said:

ITS GOING TO BE FRANKLIN🦆

 

I've been saying it for a while now... There is no player in this Draft they scouted more thoroughly than Franklin... He's a 94-95 percentile "PFF Model" WR (since 2019 41% of 90 percentile WR's become "solid" players according to Pallazzolo...In comparison all other WR's below 90 percentile become solid players 9% of the time combined)... The Model is not a be-all-end-all... But it's a nice addition to Franklin's overall analysis...

 

He's a deep threat who ran a 4.41, but was really fast in the final 30 yards. Franklin had the slowest 10 yard split (1.61), but had a blazing 2.80 in the final 30... In comparison Worthy had a 2.72 final 30, BTJ 2.83, Adonai 2.82, Legette 2.85, McConkey 2.87, Pearsall 2.84... Franklin is more of a complete WR than some give him credit for, he's great at picking angles for YAC, and he's a legit deep threat. Think of it this way. Josh can heave it 65-70 yards fairly easily and after the 1st 10 yards Franklin will be one of the fastest WR's in the NFL... I think it's a fit. 

 

 

[HomeskillitMoorman]

Isn't Franklin the dude who looked like he was drunk at the Combine?

[Logic]

 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Also interesting to note that the Bills possess two players who are tied at 13th for the fastest 40 times ever! 

 

I had not realized this.

[Low Positive]

40 minutes ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:

Isn't Franklin the dude who looked like he was drunk at the Combine?

He was sick, or so he (and his agent) says.

[MiracleAtRich1393]

 

1 hour ago, 2003Contenders said:

I agree -- the only caveat I have is that if there is as great of demand for other teams to move up to #33 as Beane claims, he would be hard-pressed to avoid trading down if an offer comes in that is too good to refuse.

Great public negotiating, get a team like Arizona to overpay to only move down 2 slots. If we have 2 or more similarly graded receivers still on the board, hit that bid all day

Edited April 26 by MiracleAtRich1393

[Turbo44]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

How concerned should we be with Franklin's weight? He's 176 and three inches taller than Xavier Worthy. 

I wouldn't be concerned - muscle can be added, height cannot

[Motorin']

3 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

He was sick, or so he (and his agent) says.

 

He weighed in at 183lbs at his pro-day. He should be able to get up to 190 and some upper body strength.

 

The best part of his game that has been analyzed recently is that he has amongst the best release movement off the line. Very Diggesque.

[HomeskillitMoorman]

4 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

He weighed in at 183lbs at his pro-day. He should be able to get up to 190 and some upper body strength.

 

The best part of his game that has been analyzed recently is that he has amongst the best release movement off the line. Very Diggesque.

 

That's at least good to hear. I thought I read stuff from other people here that they thought he was going to have trouble getting off the line in the NFL. 

[LABILLBACKER]

I'm perfectly fine with Franklin @ 33.  But I'm hoping teams shy away from Mitchell and he's there for us near 60?

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I think we would all be thrilled to land Franklin anywhere in the second round.

Hear hear. 

 

He is my first choice of the remaining options 

[Logic]

1 minute ago, Turbo44 said:

I wouldn't be concerned - muscle can be added, height cannot. I'd be thrilled with Franklin at 33 and Baker or Rice, Polk, McCorley, Roman Wilson, Burton as a followup

I wouldn't be concerned - muscle can be added, height cannot. I'd be thrilled with Franklin at 33 and Baker or Rice, Polk, McCorley, Roman Wilson, Burton as a follow up

I wouldn't be concerned - muscle can be added, height cannot. I'd be thrilled with Franklin at 33 and Baker or Rice, Polk, McCorley, Roman Wilson, Burton as a follow up

But should I be concerned? 

[Freddie's Dead]

Good analysis, I'm voting for Laddie. Please fix your title (2024). 

[TheBrownBear]

37 minutes ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:

 

That's at least good to hear. I thought I read stuff from other people here that they thought he was going to have trouble getting off the line in the NFL. 

He's got good release technique that makes up for non-elite burst in the first 10 yards.  His biggest weakness to me is his contested catch ability.  He's a guy that needs to catch it in space.

[msw2112]

I fully admit that I don't know a lot about Franklin.  I'm always hesitant about Oregon players because they play more of a video game style of football and they play against very few teams with good defenses.  How would they look against Michigan or Alabama's defense?  I feel like their offensive players' stats are inflated.  That said, there a lot of knowledgeable folks on this board and also in the Bills' front office.  If they believe that Franklin is the real deal, and they pick him at 33, I'm on board. 

 

I'm not terribly high on Worthy.  I see him more as John Ross or Marquise Goodwin than a Tyreke Hill.  I like what Mitchell brings to the table physically, but I've read that he takes plays off and that's not the kind of player that the Bills need.  I have also read that Legette, while super talented physically, is not very bright and could struggle with the playbook and schemes.  With Mitchell and Legette, I see shades of Sammy Watkins.  I see McKonkey as more of a complimentary player than a WR#1, and similar to Shakir, but again, if the Bills brass think he's the guy, I can live with it.

 

Given how things fell, I'm OK with the trading back and think it was wise.  "Helping KC" may not have been the ideal, but given all the facts (and the Bills' opinion of Worthy), it was the right move and the 2nd trade back was unquestionably the right move unless they were interested in drafting Legette at 32, which, obviously, they were not.  Tonight should be interesting and fun.

Edited April 26 by msw2112

[Don Otreply]

5 hours ago, 2003Contenders said:

I agree -- the only caveat I have is that if there is as great of demand for other teams to move up to #33 as Beane claims, he would be hard-pressed to avoid trading down if an offer comes in that is too good to refuse.

That only works if you can still get the players your after / need, 

[Nephilim17]

6 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Also interesting to note that the Bills possess two players who are tied at 13th for the fastest 40 times ever! 

Samuel? and ???