Buffalo Bills: Good, Not Great

[NORWOODS FOOT]

“If you think you can do better, you should be a GM!” 
 

Right. And if you don’t like the state of the country, you should be president…

 

“You’re being dramatic!”

 

Cool.

 

This is how I’m a fan of the Bills, and I’m not sorry. 😂 

 

Continuing on…
 

The Bills may never win a Super Bowl, but that’s the standard that I’m comfortable holding them to. In my mind, for a GM/coach to be truly successful here during their tenure they need to win at least one championship.

 

This is the NFL, and the margins are razor thin. We keep being edged out by Kansas City. And I don’t think it’s just because they’re lucky. I don’t even think it’s just because of Mahomes. I think it’s for a lot of reasons. And I think I can identify one of the main ones.

 

The Kansas City Chiefs evaluate players in a fundamentally different way than the Bills front office. And then they coach and scheme using those players differently as well.

 

Simply put, the Kansas City Chiefs value special traits higher than we do, and they prioritize using those traits in schemes that creatively leverage and amplify their effect.

 

Let’s dissect the Xavier Worthy pick as the latest example.

 

Xavier Worthy is the fastest player in the NFL. When Xavier Worthy runs a go route he is going to be faster than any man trying to cover him. That puts a huge amount of stress on a defense because he can beat his man on any given play. And it doesn’t matter if he catches or drops the pass, the defense still has to chase him down the field.

 

This is also going to require that the safety on his side of the field keeps an eye on him and takes a deeper drop if he runs a go route or even a deep post.

 

He’s going to open up the rest of the field for all of the other skill position players. His presence alone is going to force NFL defenses to skew their coverage in a way that they don’t have to nearly any other week.
 

If a defense wants to try to counter these wider spaces, they’re going to have to drop linebackers further into coverage. If you have a good running game, and even better a running quarterback, you’re going to have bigger chunk plays, and more success.

 

It doesn’t matter that Xavier Worthy is not a perfect prospect. What matters is that he’s going to put every single defense he goes up against in a bind, and Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are going to exploit the hell out of it.
 

And this could’ve been our advantage. Stretching a defense’s backend coverage would have had a positive effect for every single one of our skill position players. Even if we have less than optimal players, they would’ve had more space to work with. And it’s this kind of strategic thinking that the Chiefs have shown time and time again to be masters of. 
 

Can you imagine the strain it would’ve put on a defense to have the fastest man in the NFL paired with the quarterback with the strongest arm in the NFL. It would’ve been imposing a nightmare on other teams. Instead of doing that we gave Kansas City that power.

 

I’d love to be wrong about all of this. But I keep watching Buffalo beat their head against the same old walls and I think this philosophical schematic issue is one of the reasons why.

 

This whole Xavier Worthy trade situation puts the issue in high definition. Beane and McDermott looked at this player and said no thank you let’s trade down. Andy Reid looked at this player and says I have to have him we’re trading up. Who are you gonna bet on making the better call?
 

In my opinion this is one of the main reasons that we’re stuck where we are.

 

 

Edited April 26 by NORWOODS FOOT

[Sweats]

Alright, i'm weighing in on this.....

 

You're not wrong with what you're saying about Worthy. Reid is going to scheme the hell out of him and force D's into some bad decisions and positions, we all know that. Now, think of an O with Mahomo, Kelce, Pacheco, Worthy, etc......who does the D cover? They have added a weapon that will make it hard to defend on every square inch of the field and we have to hope that our HC can figure it out.

 

I know that right now it feels like KC is our daddy, however, let's let the rest of the draft play out and see what we're left with, is all i'm saying.

[djp14150]

You realize some run better without equip on, while others with equip on run faster than him.

 

what about all those supposedly dumb GMs thst passed him over if he’s that special……

Edited April 26 by djp14150

[NORWOODS FOOT]

I think Beane is a A- general manager. He’s quite excellent in many ways. But there is a margin of difference between how he constructs this team and how McDermott coaches it and what Andy Reid is doing. And that’s what I’m interested in. What is that difference and why does it seem, so decisive and leading to these outcomes?

Edited April 26 by NORWOODS FOOT

[JGMcD2]

Considering Andy Reid has struggled to find a productive WR in KC outside of Tyreek Hill, I’m going to say I don’t care. 

 

Also, Worthy may have the fastest 40 time, but it doesn’t guarantee he plays fast. He’s going to get beat to hell… he’s not Tyreek. Tyreek’s speed isn’t what makes him so unique - despite everyone wanting to boil it down to that. 

[NORWOODS FOOT]

1 minute ago, djp14150 said:

You realize some run better without equip on, while others with equip on run faster than him.

 

what about all those supposedly dumb GMs thst passed him over if he’s that special……

A fair point. But his speed is special. And if you prepared to leverage it schematically, it can have a huge effect on the rest of your offense. That’s my projection anyway, and I’m gonna be watching to see if that’s how it actually plays out.

[Brandon]

We'll see over the next few years,  but if I'm just looking for a guy to run off the deep coverage, I like Franklin better than Worthy.  BTJ was the best pure deep threat of the top prospects,  but Franklin was damn close from what I saw.  I have significant concerns about AD Mitchell,  but he's still available.   And I like McConkey in that role as well,  though I do think he's a step down from those.  

[NORWOODS FOOT]

1 minute ago, Brandon said:

We'll see over the next few years,  but if I'm just looking for a guy to run off the deep coverage, I like Franklin better than Worthy.  BTJ was the best pure deep threat of the top prospects,  but Franklin was damn close from what I saw.  I have significant concerns about AD Mitchell,  but he's still available.   And I like McConkey in that role as well,  though I do think he's a step down from those.  

i’ve heard about some nebulous character concerns with AD Mitchell, and that he has diabetes type one and does not manage it well.

 

I hope that if we select one of the other two guys, you mentioned, they can help stretch that spacing for us. Hell, maybe Franklin will end up being able to do it better than worthy. That would be fantastic and I’d be happy to eat my words.

[RiotAct]

I hope you’re wrong, but I have a sinking feeling you’re going to be right about how they use Worthy.

[nedboy7]

Not much correlation between elite speed and production according to Marino. 

[djp14150]

1 minute ago, NORWOODS FOOT said:

A fair point. But his speed is special. And if you prepared to leverage it schematically, it can have a huge effect on the rest of your offense. That’s my projection anyway, and I’m gonna be watching to see if that’s how it actually plays out.

it’s not hard to get 4.4 and under speed.

 

IIRC buffalo signed KJ Hamler who has 4.4 speed.

[NORWOODS FOOT]

Just now, nedboy7 said:

Not much correlation between elite speed and production according to Marino. 

that’s what I find so intriguing about Xavier Worthy. I think his production may not show up as much in the stat sheet at least not under his own name.

[nedboy7]

2 minutes ago, NORWOODS FOOT said:

that’s what I find so intriguing about Xavier Worthy. I think his production may not show up as much in the stat sheet at least not under his own name.

He will be their own special Gabe. 

Edited April 26 by nedboy7

[Brandon]

Just now, NORWOODS FOOT said:

i’ve heard about some nebulous character concerns with AD Mitchell, and that he has diabetes type one and does not manage it well.

 

I hope that if we select one of the other two guys, you mentioned, they can help stretch that spacing for us. Hell, maybe Franklin will end up being able to do it better than worthy. That would be fantastic and I’d be happy to eat my words.

 

My gut feeling as of this morning is Franklin/McConkey with the 1st 2nd round pick to be the versatile, all-around guy,  then Devontez Walker with one of the remaining picks.  

[Cray51]

If worthy makes such an impact, he isn’t the pick at 28, he is going top 10.  Frankly the guy can run fast at the combine.  I don’t see the separation on film, I don’t see plus hands.  They will scheme him all over the field I’m sure, but worthy was not a top 40 prospect in this draft for me.

[Dillenger4]

22 minutes ago, NORWOODS FOOT said:

“If you think you can do better, you should be a GM!” 
 

Right. And if you don’t like the state of the country, you should be president…

 

“You’re being dramatic!”

 

Cool.

 

This is how I’m a fan of the Bills, and I’m not sorry. 😂 

 

Continuing on…
 

The Bills may never win a Super Bowl, but that’s the standard that I’m comfortable holding them to. In my mind, for a GM/coach to be truly successful here during their tenure they need to win at least one championship.

 

This is the NFL, and the margins are razor thin. We keep being edged out by Kansas City. And I don’t think it’s just because they’re lucky. I don’t even think it’s just because of Mahomes. I think it’s for a lot of reasons. And I think I can identify one of the main ones.

 

The Kansas City Chiefs evaluate players in a fundamentally different way than the Bills front office. And then they coach and scheme using those players differently as well.

 

Simply put, the Kansas City Chiefs value special traits higher than we do, and they prioritize using those traits in schemes that creatively leverage and amplify their effect.

 

Let’s dissect the Xavier Worthy pick as the latest example.

 

Xavier Worthy is the fastest player in the NFL. When Xavier Worthy runs a go route he is going to be faster than any man trying to cover him. That puts a huge amount of stress on a defense because he can beat his man on any given play. And it doesn’t matter if he catches or drops the pass, the defense still has to chase him down the field.

 

This is also going to require that the safety on his side of the field keeps an eye on him and takes a deeper drop if he runs a go route or even a deep post.

 

He’s going to open up the rest of the field for all of the other skill position players. His presence alone is going to force NFL defenses to skew their coverage in a way that they don’t have to nearly any other week.
 

If a defense wants to try to counter these wider spaces, they’re going to have to drop linebackers further into coverage. If you have a good running game, and even better a running quarterback, you’re going to have bigger chunk plays, and more success.

 

It doesn’t matter that Xavier Worthy is not a perfect prospect. What matters is that he’s going to put every single defense he goes up against in a bind, and Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are going to exploit the hell out of it.
 

And this could’ve been our advantage. Stretching a defense’s backend coverage would have had a positive effect for every single one of our skill position players. Even if we have less than optimal players, they would’ve had more space to work with. And it’s this kind of strategic thinking that the Chiefs have shown time and time again to be masters of. 
 

Can you imagine the strain it would’ve put on a defense to have the fastest man in the NFL paired with the quarterback with the strongest arm in the NFL. It would’ve been imposing a nightmare on other teams. Instead of doing that we gave Kansas City that power.

 

I’d love to be wrong about all of this. But I keep watching Buffalo beat their head against the same old walls and I think this philosophical schematic issue is one of the reasons why.

 

This whole Xavier Worthy trade situation puts the issue in high definition. Beane and McDermott looked at this player and said no thank you let’s trade down. Andy Reid looked at this player and says I have to have him we’re trading up. Who are you gonna bet on making the better call?
 

In my opinion this is one of the main reasons that we’re stuck where we are.

 

 

WTF are you crying about?!?? He is known to get handled at the line of scrimmage. He is small and light. Fast, yes for sure. But he is bumped easily and can be covered. Also not a great route tree runner. That's his jam. We fleeced the Chefs. Now if we can manage to get the deal done with SF for Ayouk (two 2nr round pix) will you be happy. Cause its happening.

[MJS]

8 minutes ago, NORWOODS FOOT said:

A fair point. But his speed is special. And if you prepared to leverage it schematically, it can have a huge effect on the rest of your offense. That’s my projection anyway, and I’m gonna be watching to see if that’s how it actually plays out.

Same with John Ross, but he never amounted to anything in the NFL. Speed is not everything. And to weigh only 165 lbs is a big obstacle to overcome.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 minutes ago, djp14150 said:

it’s not hard to get 4.4 and under speed.

 

IIRC buffalo signed KJ Hamler who has 4.4 speed.

 

They already signed hollywood brown.  MVS before that.  Toney.  Hardman.  All of these guys run in the 4.3's.  They drafted him because they think he is better at WR than any of them, in addition to superior speed.  But lets not act like they were slow or something.  

[HOUSE]

And I thought this morning would be boring 

[Bangarang]

People also thought Reid was going to get a ton of production out of Kadarius Toney. You just never know.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Dillenger4 said:

WTF are you crying about?!?? He is known to get handled at the line of scrimmage. He is small and light. Fast, yes for sure. But he is bumped easily and can be covered. Also not a great route tree runner. That's his jam. We fleeced the Chefs. Now if we can manage to get the deal done with SF for Ayouk (two 2nr round pix) will you be happy. Cause its happening.

 

He's also like 170 lbs which is lighter than mckenzie.  I can't picture him ever being anything but a minus as a blocker.  

 

His tape also doesn't really show this guy as someone screaming down the field catching bombs.  

Just now, Bangarang said:

People also thought Reid was going to get a ton of production out of Kadarius Toney. You just never know.

 

Yup - a more flexible player, who is quicker and more of a yac threat.  His biggest impact was as a PR in the super bowl, and his drops all but knocked him out of the depth chart.  

[MJS]

8 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

People also thought Reid was going to get a ton of production out of Kadarius Toney. You just never know.

Or Hardman who had 4.3 speed but never amounted to much in KC.

 

I feel like speed is one of the less important attributes for a receiver. You just need to be fast enough. Then, all the other attributes take precedence, like release, separation, route running, and hands.

Edited April 26 by MJS

[Johnnycage46]

So much crying.

[Rigotz]

More loser talk. 

 

The Bills were 13 seconds away from beating the Chiefs in the playoffs, then two years later they were 2-3 plays away.

 

There is not a huge fundamental gap between them. They're not blowing us out. 

 

I don't know why some fans insist on acting like the Chiefs have every answer and the Bills have none. Their Hall of Fame Tight End is 34 years old. We have an elite one (or two) in their mid 20's. They drafted a WR we didn't want. Their other WR is going to be suspended. Who else do they have to throw to? We have plenty of picks to get young weapons of our own.

 

The Chiefs don't "own" the Bills, they've just beat us in close games in the playoffs. We beat them in their own home multiple times. Just chill out and stay positive.

 

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

This speed thing IMO is way overblown   I just calculated the difference between Worthy's time as the fast player in the NFL and Curtis Samuel time and it works out that the 40 yard distance would mean Worthy is not quite 1 yard down the field further than Samuel would be.  How many passes did Allen throw Diggs that were either way over thrown OR  way under thrown.  Also how many 40 yard completions are actually even made, my guess is less than 10%, and probably much less.  Now you take something that has less than a 10% success rate to start with and add to that was the pass has to be exactly there as the over or under thrown passes won't matter either.

 

Add also as has been stated combine 40 times and football times are totally different.  I'd also worry that with a guy who ways 165 pounds, how often will he be able to stay on the field.  I'm sure he'll bulk up some, but likely also slow down some as a result.  I doubt Worthy will run a 40 time as fast if his ribs or something else is hurting from hits he's taking.

 

Put all this together makes me question will defenses really worry all that much about him being a yard down the field further as they know the likelihood of success on that type of play is very low to begin with, so worry about the important things.

[gonzo1105]

They’ve been great but the Chiefs have been better. That’s no excuse but you can still be great and unfortunately never win the SB 

[Success]

We need a #1 WR - not a 165 pound gadget guy/speedster who has the dropsies.

 

[KingBoots8]

Just now, Success said:

We need a #1 WR - not a 165 pound gadget guy/speedster who has the dropsies.

 

He’s not even that fast. Rashee Rice can go 120mph 😂

[Mark80]

Gonna be so funny when Worthy flames out and all you cry babies look like idiots.  27 other teams passed on the fastest guy ever too.  How did the 4.22 ran by John Ross work out?  Yeah, 62 career receptions in a 5 year career.

Edited April 26 by Mark80

[NORWOODS FOOT]

Come on guys! Don’t be so mean. I have a Patrick Mahomes shaped hole in my heart and it’s bleeding. Don’t hurt me more!
 

🙄

 

i’m talking about teambuilding strategy, how we do it how the Chiefs do it and why they beat us. I would hope they’re having similar conversations at One Bills Drive. So maybe they’re crying too? 
 

I think the real loser mentality is saying that not winning a Super Bowl is good enough. But that’s just me. I like championships.

[The Frankish Reich]

39 minutes ago, djp14150 said:

IIRC buffalo signed KJ Hamler who has 4.4 speed

He HAD 4.4 speed. 

He actually flashed some potential with the Broncos, but he just couldn't stay on the field.

As for Worthy: after sleeping on it, I'm fine with the trade and passing on him. A lot of talk here about how he's 165 pounds (o.k., I'll give him 170) and how he'll get beat up in the NFL. I'm not so worried about getting beat up running routes. But receivers do need to block too, and I can't see him having the ability to do that. So everything is kind of screaming situational speed guy, not primary X receiver. Andy Reid no doubt feels that he can make that work. With our current WR room, I don't think the Bills could make it work.

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, NORWOODS FOOT said:

The Kansas City Chiefs evaluate players in a fundamentally different way than the Bills front office.   And then they coach and scheme using those players differently as well.

 

You touched on a lot of symptoms in your statement, this among them.  

 

That's the most directly relevant thing that you mentioned however.  It hasn't even mattered which players we have.  Logging stats and optimizing performance, both team as well as individual, are quite often two different things.  

 

We change our tactics during the season, and not in a good adjustment kind of way, rather more in the way of poke-n-hope and let's see what works and what doesn't, at least on offense.  The reason for it is that we really don't have any kind of offensive prowess on our staff.  Our prowess is all on the defensive side and we'll never hire any major offensive prowess as long as the situation from the top remains what it is.  If we did, all of our offensive players would be putting up better numbers, our offense would be scoring more, we'd be a lot more prolific and we'd be winning in the postseason.  

 

No need to get into the whys or why-nots, that's been done here ad tedium.  Just sayin'.  

 

This season will bear out much.  Last season we had quite a bit of fortune assist us in the end to our season, fortune that isn't even close to reliably repetitive to understate it.  That created false narratives on how good we really were to end the season.  We were very fortunate to even make the playoffs and were a loss away from not making them altogether.  We've had it pretty easy within our division so far, but now we've gotten somewhat worse, the amount TBD, while the Jets can only improve, same with the Pats, both of which beat us once last season, and with the Pats and Miami taking us to the wire in two of our wins.  

 

It's going to be an interesting and defining season.  

 

 

[Beast]

58 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Considering Andy Reid has struggled to find a productive WR in KC outside of Tyreek Hill, I’m going to say I don’t care. 

Rashee Rice had almost 1,000 yards as a rookie last season and really came on in the back end of the season. Don’t forget they still have him regardless of what suspension he will serve.

Edited April 26 by Beast

[PBF81]

1 minute ago, Beast said:

Rashee Rice had almost 1,000 yards as a rookie last season and really came on in ghe back end of the season. Don’t forget they still have him regardless of what suspension he will serve.

 

They're fine for this season.  The question is when will Kelce retire and what will their offensive game look like after that.  

 

 

[Beast]

Let’s not forget Worthy is an absolute weapon in the punt return game as well.