the perils of not moving up - a cautionary tale

[dave mcbride]

John Butler was a good GM and personnel evaluator both in Buffalo and SD. But he had a very bad 2000 draft, highlighted by terrible players in the first and second round. The Bills needed defensive help going into that draft, and the strong word beforehand was that the Bills absolutely loved Ahmad Plummer (CB, Ohio State) and Mike Brown (S, Nebraska). They also liked Deon Grant (S, Tennessee). Plummer went 24th overall and the Bills took Erik Flowers two picks later, at 26. Even though they had drafted Antoine Winfield in the first in 1999, Thomas Smith was gone after the 1999 season and they had no one else, really, beyond Winfield and Kenny Irvin (Punt Catcher Chris Watson was their third CB). In the second, they were desperate for a safety but stayed put and drafted a fifth round-caliber player at the 58th slot (because he's all who was left), Travares Tillman (S, Georgia Tech). They watched Mike Brown go at #39 overall and Grant at #57 overall, just before they picked Tillman (a desperation move, and Butler more or less admitted as much afterward).

 

Plummer had four very good seasons for SF but washed out after that because of injury, which was just bad luck. He was on a very good career trajectory and at least gave SF four good years, starting at CB right off the bat. Mike Brown played 10 seasons and was a two-time all pro for Chicago (although he had a bunch of injuries in his latter years). When healthy, he was elite. Deon Grant, despite missing his rookie season with an ACL tear, played for 11 more after that and started in over 160 games with 30 total INTs. The topper? His final game was the February 2012 SB vs NE, in which he started and had six tackles for a Giants defense that held an elite offense to only 17 points. Nice way to go out.

 

If the Bills had sold some assets (either 2000 or 2001 draft capital) to move up 23 and 56 (Minnesota had both 55 and 56 that year, so was presumably open to a slight trade-down to 58), that draft would have looked a whole lot different in retrospect.  Maybe jumping ahead of Chicago for Mike Brown was undoable, but their later picks suggest to me that the capital would have been well spent on moving up (Corey Moore, Avion Black, Sammy Morris, Leif Larson, Drew Haddad, and Dashon Polk were the remaining picks). The thing is, Butler really did believe in those players they missed out on. Maybe Butler wasn't as aggressive as he should have been given that he was on his way out, but I doubt that -- he still wanted to field a winning team in 2000 (and to be fair, that team started out very well before injuries hit). In any event, the front office had the right instincts for the players they really wanted early on. 

 

I think you can see where I'm going with this. Beane's MO is to not risk missing on his guy (assuming the player is within a reasonable distance) and this is the reason why. I'm not saying he HAS to move up at all; just saying that there is a potentially steep price one pays by sitting still and "letting the draft come to you." This is assuming, of course, that the player you want is someone you truly believe in, but that should be a given in any trade-up.

 

Anyway, food for thought.

[BuffaloBill]

The draft is a crapshoot.  Beane has generally made good draft decisions. As long as he does not mortgage the future I am good with your concept.  Move a few spots maybe but don’t repeat Sammy Watkins fiasco. The are no “sure things” in the draft.

[eball]

Fans tend to be more "afraid" of giving up draft capital than good GMs.  I think Beane strikes the right balance between being aggressive to go get the guy you believe in early, but then letting the later rounds come to him based upon his scouts and board.

 

[sleeby]

Josh allen was the cream of the rich QB crop his year and no one knew.  He was the third QB selected and most here were unhappy that night as he wasn't josh Rosen who went fourth.  

 

Just never know but as buffalobill said, Beane has done well for us in the past.

[Saint Doug]

In hindsight, we all know what we are doing. 

[uninja]

I feel like this team has generally been well constructed with not a ton of whiffs or busts and the front office has been pretty shrewd in knowing when to pounce and when to stay pat or move back. Beane will be do what he feels he has to and I generally trust his instincts.

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, uninja said:

I feel like this team has generally been well constructed with not a ton of whiffs or busts and the front office has been pretty shrewd in knowing when to pounce and when to stay pat or move back. Beane will be do what he feels he has to and I generally trust his instincts.

Me too. 

[billsfan714]

How did Sammy Watkins work out? Or JP Losman.

Edited April 25 by billsfan714

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, billsfan714 said:

How did Sammy Watkins work out?

Not really my point.  

 

A much, much better comp given the small distances involved in moving up is the Bills using Carolina intel in 2017 to jump to 63, just ahead of Carolina at 64, by trading 75, 149, and 156 to Atlanta. With that 63d pick, they nabbed Dion Dawkins. There are of course other examples. Kincaid, for instance.

Edited April 25 by dave mcbride

[teef]

2 minutes ago, billsfan714 said:

How did Sammy Watkins work out? Or JP Losman.

Sassy!

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

10 minutes ago, sleeby said:

Just never know but as buffalobill said, Beane has done well for us in the past.

 

Except at receiver

 

he's absolutely atrocious at evaluating receiver.

 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Sammy Watkins fiasco keeps coming up as if that data sample of one means something. good grief.

[Blackbeard]

3 minutes ago, billsfan714 said:

How did Sammy Watkins work out?

He didn't have Allen tossing him the ball.

 

But regardless, we have a generational talent at QB.  We won't see another QB of his skill in our lifetime on this team.  I think you have to gamble and go for it.  I'm all for trading up.  I think having Allen at QB calls for it.

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Except at receiver

 

he's absolutely atrocious at evaluating receiver.

 

He traded for Diggs and got multiple all-pro seasons out of him! Gabe Davis had excellent production for a fourth (just look at fourth round receivers from the last decade and compare).

[Sweats]

11 minutes ago, Saint Doug said:

In hindsight, we all know what we are doing. 

 

 

 

 

I don't.......i'm a hot mess.

[billsfan714]

5 minutes ago, Blackbeard said:

He didn't have Allen tossing him the ball.

 

But regardless, we have a generational talent at QB.  We won't see another QB of his skill in our lifetime on this team.  I think you have to gamble and go for it.  I'm all for trading up.  I think having Allen at QB calls for it.

How did he do with Mahomes, Rodgers and Goff, not exactly stiffs there.  My point, Watkins was way overrated, and was a terrible trade up and it was in what was considered a good WR class.

Edited April 25 by billsfan714

[Augie]

1 minute ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

 

I don't.......i'm a hot mess.

 

We know, just keep your chin up. Things may turn around.    😋

 

Have you met @HOUSE, BTW? 

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, billsfan714 said:

How did he do with Mahomes, Rodgers and Goff, not exactly stiffs there.

Well, since you asked, in the 2019 postseason, he had 302 total yards in three playoff games and caught a bomb on KC's game winning drive (by beating Richard Sherman badly) that put the Chiefs in the red zone. He had 5 catches for 98 yards in the SB.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

5 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

He traded for Diggs and got multiple all-pro seasons out of him! Gabe Davis had excellent production for a fourth (just look at fourth round receivers from the last decade and compare).

 

Davis was his best DRAFTED receiver, and he was average, all things considered.

 

Can't say he evaluated Diggs who was an established veteran. It's one thing to bring in an FA. It's another to draft a dude.

[transient]

Yes, but let's say Butler had moved up and taken a player he really coveted and the Bills were better for it.

 

If the team was better, Wade Phillips may not have been fired (although he may still have fallen on the sword for Ronnie "the mullet" Jones). As a result, the subsequent timeline of coaching hiring and firing may have been very different.

 

Wrex Ryan may have never walked through the door in 2015, so Russ Brandon would never have had the chance to ply him with wine so that he wouldn't leave the buiding. In that case, Doug Whaley may not have been a dead man walking in 2017, and Brandon Beane may not have been there to select Josh Allen in 2018.

 

This whole butterfly effect from trading up would have ruined the most entertaining Bills football since the Kelly era!!

 

I think the moral of this story is that you should NEVER trade up for good players. The peril of trading up for players that you covet just might be that you kill your future unicorn!! You're an awful, awful man for even suggesting such a thing, @dave mcbride!!

 

For those wondering, I am well aware that Brandon Beane, in fact, traded up to select Josh Allen. I'm hoping the absurdity of the post will result in the masses overlooking this obvious flaw in this otherwise ever-so-well-thought-out post.

[billsfan714]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

Well, since you asked, in the 2019 postseason, he had 302 total yards in three playoff games and caught a bomb on KC's game winning drive (by beating Richard Sherman badly) that put the Chiefs in the red zone. He had 5 catches for 98 yards in the SB.

Great drop the season totals on us.   

[Aussie Joe]

19 minutes ago, eball said:

Fans tend to be more "afraid" of giving up draft capital than good GMs.  I think Beane strikes the right balance between being aggressive to go get the guy you believe in early, but then letting the later rounds come to him based upon his scouts and board.

 

Beane draws the line at giving up next years first .., at least he says he does anyway… to me that’s threshold I’m not stepping over for a WR …. And I don’t care about how high in the second the Vikings pick might be .., 

 

So no Top 3 for me it appears 

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Davis was his best DRAFTED receiver, and he was average, all things considered.

 

Can't say he evaluated Diggs who was an established veteran. It's one thing to bring in an FA. It's another to draft a dude.

Well, we're gonna find out tonight, most likely.

1 minute ago, billsfan714 said:

Great drop the season totals on us.   

52 catches for 673 yards on an offense that also featured Tyreek Hill and Kelce, both of whom put up huge numbers. He was actually pretty good that year although he unsurprisingly missed 2+ games due to his hamstring. I'm not gonna say he wasn't a disappointment overall, but when healthy early on he was electrifying. Turns out had some personal issues too, obviously ...

[Fan in Chicago]

31 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

 

I think you can see where I'm going with this. Beane's MO is to not risk missing on his guy (assuming the player is within a reasonable distance) and this is the reason why. I'm not saying he HAS to move up at all; just saying that there is a potentially steep price one pays by sitting still and "letting the draft come to you." This is assuming, of course, that the player you want is someone you truly believe in, but that should be a given in any trade-up.

 

Anyway, food for thought.

Excellent post. 

More recently, Cowboys stood still when Beane did a small trade-up and got a guy Jones coveted.

 

I am all for a trade-up to get the guy you really want and the cost of a low draft pick to move up a few slots is forgotten very quickly. Yet some fans don't forget and keep lamenting that "yea but Beane had to use assets to move up". It doesn't matter when you land a Kincaid type player. 

I am very much convinced we will see a trade-up tonight. 

[RiotAct]

14 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Except at receiver

 

he's absolutely atrocious at evaluating receiver.

 

well, no better time to change that narrative than tonight!!!

[eball]

13 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Except at receiver

 

he's absolutely atrocious at evaluating receiver.

 

 

12 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

He traded for Diggs and got multiple all-pro seasons out of him! Gabe Davis had excellent production for a fourth (just look at fourth round receivers from the last decade and compare).

 

Dave beat me to it, but the truth is that Beane has never drafted a receiver higher than the 4th round so how can anyone say he can't evaluate them!

 

That Shakir kid looks ok...

 

 

[HOUSE]

10 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

We know, just keep your chin up. Things may turn around.    😋

 

Have you met @HOUSE, BTW? 

I am broke 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, eball said:

 

 

Dave beat me to it, but the truth is that Beane has never drafted a receiver higher than the 4th round so how can anyone say he can't evaluate them!

 

That Shakir kid looks ok...

 

 

Why do you figure that is, when there's been a need at the position for at least three seasons

 

[Augie]

4 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

I am broke 

 

In so many ways……

 

But we all have hope! 

 

Well, most of us. 

[dave mcbride]

6 minutes ago, eball said:

 

 

Dave beat me to it, but the truth is that Beane has never drafted a receiver higher than the 4th round so how can anyone say he can't evaluate them!

 

That Shakir kid looks ok...

 

 

Thank you -- Shakir indeed looks terrific.

[Blackbeard]

22 minutes ago, billsfan714 said:

How did he do with Mahomes, Rodgers and Goff, not exactly stiffs there.  My point, Watkins was way overrated, and was a terrible trade up and it was in what was considered a good WR class.

Youre right.  Watkins was overrated.

 

My point is that you have a true stud at QB and should take the gamble here.

 

Agree to disagree i guess.

[Bigvinny]

If we wont the Chiefs will, Mahomes and McDuffie come to mind. Doubt they pick at 32, they will jump ahead of us and take McConkey or whoever. Only way you get ahead of that is making the power move yourself.

[Magox]

It goes both ways, trading up for Sammy Watkins set back this franchise when we swung and missed on that pick.

[Putin]

48 minutes ago, sleeby said:

Josh allen was the cream of the rich QB crop his year and no one knew.  He was the third QB selected and most here were unhappy that night as he wasn't josh Rosen who went fourth.  

 

Just never know but as buffalobill said, Beane has done well for us in the past.

I’m proud to say I was on Josh Allen train was thrilled and jumped up and down when he was selected !!! 

[Maynard]

4 minutes ago, Magox said:

It goes both ways, trading up for Sammy Watkins set back this franchise when we swung and missed on that pick.

Well yes, but in hindsight we didn’t have an established QB. We have a unicorn now and Allen needs another dynamic weapon. Kincaid was a great start, now let’s get him a WR with elite traits. 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

47 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Except at receiver

 

he's absolutely atrocious at evaluating receiver.

 

With this class of receivers you never know, there's a good chance he might just snag a gem out of this bunch? 😉 

Edited April 25 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[ngbills]

If you got a guy like Aiyuk as a plan a or plan b - then you can sit back at 28. If you get to 28 and all the names are gone you make the trade for Aiyuk and the swap is more of a sure thing for the much higher price tag. If you dont have an Aiyuk or similar for a back up plan you do whatever it takes to move up if needed to get your guy. 

[SoTier]

43 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Except at receiver

 

he's absolutely atrocious at evaluating receiver.

 

 

Really?   Your opinion is based on what exactly?   That Beane didn't draft players that you thought he should have?  That he didn't trade for a veteran receiver that you like?   

 

In 6 drafts, Beane's hit 2 HRs with receivers, trading the Bills 2020 first rounder (#22) for WR Stefon Diggs and trading up to get TE Dalton Kincaid in 2023.   Beane also hit a solid single with WR Gabe Davis in the fourth round of 2020.  He also drafted another promising young WR,  Khalil Shakir, in the fifth round in 2022. 

 

Beane's  WRs

2018 - 6th round - Ray-Ray McCloud

2018 - 7th round - Austin Proehl

2020 - traded 1st round pick to acquire Stefon Diggs

2020 - 4th round - Gabe Davis

2020 - 6th round - Isaiah Hodges#

2021 - 6th round - Marquez Stevenson

2022 - 5th round - Khalil Shakir

2023 - 5th round - Justin Shorter - IR as a rookie

 

Beane's TEs

2019 - 3rd round - Dawson Knox

2019 - 7th round - Tommy Sweeney

2023 - 1st round - Dalton Kincaid

 

 

[Aussie Joe]

36 minutes ago, ngbills said:

If you got a guy like Aiyuk as a plan a or plan b - then you can sit back at 28. If you get to 28 and all the names are gone you make the trade for Aiyuk and the swap is more of a sure thing for the much higher price tag. If you dont have an Aiyuk or similar for a back up plan you do whatever it takes to move up if needed to get your guy. 

If the 49ers are happy to wait around to see if the Bills don’t get anyone they like at 28 .. that’s very neighbourly of them … I guess if BTJ falls to 28 then speak to the Panthers for a top of the second … 

[BillsShredder83]

1 hour ago, billsfan714 said:

How did Sammy Watkins work out? Or JP Losman.

 

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Me too. 

@dave mcbridethis is like trying to argue with a child that mcdonalds isnt the best food on the planet

 

15 yEaRs AgO sOmEtHiNg BaD hApPeN! tRaDe AlWaYs BhAd!

1 hour ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Davis was his best DRAFTED receiver, and he was average, all things considered.

 

Can't say he evaluated Diggs who was an established veteran. It's one thing to bring in an FA. It's another to draft a dude.

so how do we know hes a bad talent evaluator at WR?

Davis was a 4th rd. not my fav player of all time, but i think most would agree he lived up to a 4th rd pick

Khalil Shakir in the 5th, that looks pretty good

Kincaid looks good, hes a TE, but a pass catcher

Justin Shorter, we dunno anything about, but thats a 5th rd flyer on a big body

 

from a small sample size looks pretty solid, no?