The Dark Horse WR on the Roster (Beane made reference to guys on the roster elevating their play)

[bigK14094]

11 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Duke Williams

Not yet.  Duke caught a few balls including the game winner at Tenn a few years back.

[Doc]

21 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

With Josh throwing to him instead of Taylor Heineke and Sam Howell, Curtis Samuel will probably up his production a few notches.   Amazing how Beane thinks highly enough about a guy who runs a 4.3 sec  40 and pays him $10m per year, but Bills fans simply ignore the move.  Fans of this team crack me up.  

 

I just posted that (before I saw this and then deleted it).  With Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid and Knox, you already have the makings of a good WR group.

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

I just posted that (before I saw this and then deleted it).  With Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid and Knox, you already have the makings of a good WR group.

Someone will have to tell Kincaid and Knox (and their agents) that they are WR’s now.

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Thanks for the effort with the write-ups.........but you played yourself here.

 

Beane was talking up Dane Jackson like he was a CB1 before he drafted Elam.

 

It's what he does.   Set the bar of expectations low.  

 

-"Hmmmm.........maybe WR isn't REALLY a need?   Beane's got this!"

 

-"Oh, we got a WR in round 1!   I know it wasn't a need but I'm glad Beane got us one.  Dude is a wizard!"

 

Don't worry, you'll forget Beane even said it later.

As much as I agree with this, to @Beck Water’s point, I really did like Hamler in 2020. I thought he was a weapon.

 

he is my pick of these bums to get over 200 yards this season. 

[Beck Water]

9 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Not sure why you keep saying "2 receivers". 

 

That's actually a valid point, for some reason I keep mentally editing out Curtis Samuel who has shown he is a solid player.

So we have 3 receivers who between them, last season, contributed 174 catches and 1899 yds.

 

I honestly do think Samuel is a good player who has the potential to 'do a Beasley' and exceed his previous career year, so contribute in the high-800s/low 900s in a chain moving way from the slot.

 

I think I keep editing him out because last time I was modestly enthused about a low-level off season signing it went awry.

 

Edited April 19 by Beck Water

[SoMAn]

I still suspect the IR designation for Shorter was exaggerated and a means to 'stash' him in a safe place where he couldn't be poached off the practice squad.  Naturally, the hamstring excuse was convenient.

 

It could be their hopes for him and his development after 1 season were factored into the Diggs move.

 

It would be a nice surprise if he turns out to be a viable option at WR.

[Beck Water]

11 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I don’t even think Shorter makes the team.

 

I think that's a reasonable take. 

 

I will now pour salt on the wounds by pointing out to all he was chosen by the Bills, 27 picks ahead of Puka Nacua.

 

[fergie's ire]

11 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

These guys are all either fast-but-small or big-but-slow.  Not encouraging.  

 

Then again, Steve Largent was neither big nor fast and still did okay in the NFL.  

 

I heard a great story about a high school DB who was highly recruited.  He shows up on campus and in practice they having covering this white guy with average speed...and the guy torched him.  It shook his confidence so much that he couldn't even cover that guy that he ended up quitting the team and football.  The guy he was trying to cover?  Steve Largent.

[Beck Water]

55 minutes ago, SoMAn said:

I still suspect the IR designation for Shorter was exaggerated and a means to 'stash' him in a safe place where he couldn't be poached off the practice squad.  Naturally, the hamstring excuse was convenient.

 

It could be their hopes for him and his development after 1 season were factored into the Diggs move.

 

It would be a nice surprise if he turns out to be a viable option at WR.

 

I suspect you are correct, although, I wouldn't rule out that they were attempting to correct a persistent, repeating issue that he was playing through.

 

After digging into all these guys background, I would be surprised (pleasantly of course) if Shorter took a step.  He seems like a guy who peaked as the top WR recruit in HS and couldn't really live up to the hype in college - EDIT possibly injuries played a big role here.

Edited April 19 by Beck Water

[MasterStrategist]

13 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

That's actually a valid point, for some reason I keep mentally editing out Curtis Samuel who has shown he is a solid player.

So we have 3 receivers who between them, last season, contributed 174 catches and 1899 yds.

 

I honestly do think Samuel is a good player who has the potential to 'do a Beasley' and exceed his previous career year, so contribute in the high-800s/low 900s in a chain moving way from the slot.

 

I think I keep editing him out because last time I was modestly enthused about a low-level off season signing it went awry.

 

Exactly, Samuel will be a nice complementary piece.  Quick passes, his strongest skillset is YAC and gaining extra yards after contact (being a former RB).

 

My concern is the downfield passing game.  We have plenty of short to intermediate options.  Downfield though, we don't have a single player that I trust to fill that role.  Samuel, he can mix it up and win some 1-1s but not his strong suit.  Shakir, he doesn't show the body control to me outside the hashes downfield. Down the seam against zone, ok.

 

Hollins was brought in, he's done this in the past a bit but he's not who we want to rely on.

 

We absolutely need 2 draft picks capable of winning downfield, be it speed or size/50 50 ability.  Counting on 1 early pick is risky, with our current group and makes me think back to 2019 when Smoke was our only reliable guy deep...teams figured out how to defend our offense at the end.  Need a variety of options.

 

 

 

 

[Beck Water]

9 hours ago, Thrivefourfive said:

Literally wants Shakir to show WR1 potential and talent. JA17 has told Beane as much, so Beane tells us. Those two believe they can pull this off. Make the fans think… Okay, there’s our guy, right there! 
 

That’s as the roster stands right now. He knows damn well that Samuel better be a good signing. Everyone else is absolutely nobody. He knows the fans know.
 

Beane is riding with Josh on this one for the Shakir bump to kept the fans from drooling 24/7 over a new WR1 talent. But, Beane knows better too. He says this thing to calm us, but is hard at work to get a top WR in this draft. 
 

Could you imagine if Beane goes into next season with this WR group + a 2nd round pick. Unless that rookie is an instant game piece, with impact, We better have an improvement ACROSS THE BOARD everywhere else. Better have. RD1 is Edge, RD2 would have to be WR AND S. I think if the Bills pick a second round WR they would have to acquire another R2 pick spent on a R1 talent guy at DLine or S. I don’t know how they get another R2 pick. We have zero players we’d trade for a pick that high. I’m not even sure we have any players worth a R2 pick in a total hypothetical. Maybe Dawkins or Kincaid to a team that’s desperate. I’m not saying the Bills should do that… I don’t think they could even if they wanted to. 
 

Beane’s getting us a WR. I’ll guarantee it. 

 

I surely hope you are correct.  2 would be good.

 

Here's the thing, though, Thrive.  We agree that Shakir is a talented receiver, and should get a larger target share than the 45 targets he got last season.  So far so good. 

 

But the success he found, was in a specific role and largely from the slot.  When we refer to a #1 WR, we typically mean a guy who can play on the outside and win contested catches downfield.  Never say never, but as others have pointed out very few WR with <30" arms build a successful career in the NFL, and those who have are playing primarily from the slot (Renfrow) or as "gadget guys" (McKenzie).  Nothing sets a good player up for failure more than asking a player who has shown talent in one role, into a role he isn't physically equipped to handle.

[Beck Water]

13 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Exactly, Samuel will be a nice complementary piece.  Quick passes, his strongest skillset is YAC and gaining extra yards after contact (being a former RB).

 

My concern is the downfield passing game.  We have plenty of short to intermediate options.  Downfield though, we don't have a single player that I trust to fill that role.  Samuel, he can mix it up and win some 1-1s but not his strong suit.  Shakir, he doesn't show the body control to me outside the hashes downfield. Down the seam against zone, ok.

 

Hollins was brought in, he's done this in the past a bit but he's not who we want to rely on.

 

We absolutely need 2 draft picks capable of winning downfield, be it speed or size/50 50 ability.  Counting on 1 early pick is risky, with our current group and makes me think back to 2019 when Smoke was our only reliable guy deep...teams figured out how to defend our offense at the end.  Need a variety of options.

 

I agree with you completely here.  On all points.  It truly frustrates me when people see a player like Shakir, or Samuel, who have made good contributions in specific roles, and suddenly project them as having similar success all over the field.  Shakir was quietly a YAC-grabber last season, with 46% of his yards being YAC.  Samuel, very similar, 42%.

 

But someone has to stretch the field and scare the defense.

 

The only point I'm wondering about is if they possibly see Kincaid in that downfield passing game role?  I know, I know, but Hear Me Out lol.

Officially, his 40 time rules that out - he's "slug like" at 4.71.   And I don't think he came in with the physical skills to release against press man or handfight downfield.  
 

But as any defender who's tried to chase him around the backfield or catch him downfield would attest, Josh Allen sure as hell moves faster than his 4.76 40 time would suggest, and skills can be developed.

 

It's a stretch (see what I did there?) but I went back and looked at some pre-draft highlights, and he was winning downfield on some routes.

Edited April 19 by Beck Water

[Alphadawg7]

13 hours ago, Beck Water said:

Beane, in his sincere attempt to persuade us to believe he doesn't view the lack of a Diggs-size talent on the roster as a gaping hole that he intends to address in the draft, alluded to "young guys on the roster who can ascend, but they have to prove it too".  He made an analogy to Terrell Bernard, who played very little his rookie season then "elevated" in a Big Way last season. "Tremaine Who?"

Thought it might be a good time to profile just who is lurking in the depths of the roster.

 

In order of seniority:

1) Andy Isabella, 2019 2nd round pick of the Cards (62 overall).  Small fast guy - 5'8 3/4", 29 3/4" arms, 4.31 40-time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Isabella

"Isabella entered the 2021 season sixth on the Cardinals wide receiver depth chart, and only had one catch the entire season and was inactive for half the season."

The Cards brought him through training camp and onto the active roster, but waived him in early Oct 2022.  Since then he's been on the Ravens and Bills practice squad

Draft profile: https://www.nfl.com/prospects/andy-isabella/32004953-4156-2722-bf26-62181351a224
He was a successful RB and State-level winning track star in HS.  "Isabella has the feet and fakes to uncover in a hallway closet, and the former high school sprint champion proved to Georgia that his ability to win deep should not be underestimated. Isabella could become a menace on option routes with the ability to add vertical routes from the slot, but he must improve his pass-catching consistency and smoothness into his breaks in order to transition all that speed to the NFL."
 

He actually played 34% of the ST snaps for Buffalo last season, but it wasn't as a returner (1 KR to add to 8 previous KR).  He had not previously played much ST.

 

Chance of elevating as a receiver?  I give this "low" - see I think @Kirby Jackson comments about the odds of success for short receivers with short arms.  Never Say Never but....  On the other hand, if he's learned to live with a screw loose, perhaps he could continue to contribute on ST.

 

2) KJ Hamler, 2020 2nd round pick of the Broncos (46 overall).  Another small fast guy - 5'8 5/8", 30 3/4" arms, didn't run at combine, said to have 4.27s 40-time

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K._J._Hamler

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/k.j.-hamler/32004841-4d38-6186-eea5-110d32b9644c

This guy's NFL career to date has been the living demonstration of the lyrics "if it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all".  He had a hammy injury at the combine.  He had 30 catches for 381 yds and 3 TD as a rookie, but finished the season on IR with a hammy. 

In his 2nd year, he had a great training camp and went on IR with a torn ACL Week 3.  

In his 3rd year, he played in 7 games but just as he might have been coming up to speed off the ACL, he suffered another hammy and was IR'd again

In his 4th year, he tore his pec training on his own in the off-season then developed pericarditis in July 2023.  Denver had enough and waived him with Non Football Injury.

He spent 2023 on the Colts practice squad, but was not signed to a futures contract after the season.

 

Chance of elevating as a receiver?  Well, he showed flashes here and there of being able to play in the NFL, but repeated hammies and an ACL make this unlikely unless Beane has directed the equipment staff to cover his locker stall with 4-leaf clovers, hired him a personal leprechaun, and directed one of the training staff to follow him around providing hamstring massage.

 

3) Justin Shorter, Bills 2023 5th round pick (150 overall).  Big guy - 6'4", 229 lb, 33 3/4" arms, 10" hands.  4.55 40-time.

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/justin-shorter/32005348-4f65-1252-2fb4-216da3af656d

Spent last season on IR.  

 

He was the top receiver prospect in the country in 2018, but somehow never delivered on that promise at the college level.  Was benched for dropping passes at Penn State.  Made good at Florida, but was limited his Sr year due to hammy injuries.  Spent his rookie year with the Bills on IR due to (wait for it) hammy injury.

 

His scouting profile, not that Zierlein is infallible, is not encouraging to me; I translate it as "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane".  It praises his physicality and toughness and ability to track the ball and high-point a catch, but also notes below-average foot quickness, slow and linear release that make it hard for him to beat press coverage, and loss of momentum in turns.  Reading between the lines, I kind of get the sense of a guy who might have let his HS success go to his head a bit?

Being on IR meant he could not practice with the team, except for a 3 week "designated for return" interval which saw him returned to IR.

 

4) Tyrell Shavers, 2023 UDFA from San Diego State after transferring from Alabama to Mississippi to SD State.  Big guy - 6'4", 211 lb, 32 3/8" arms, said to run 4.55 40

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/san-diego-state-2023-nfl-draft-scouting-reports-include-jesse-matthews-alama-uluave-and-tyrell-shavers/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyrell_Shavers

He's a bit of a dark horse to me.  He apparently spent 3 seasons at Alabama buried on the depth chart, transferred to Mississippi State, saw some playing time and caught 9 passes for 104 yds, then transferred again.  Had 38 passes for 643 yards, and three touchdowns with SD State and was a ST ace.

 

Elevate?  Of the preceding 3, I guess I see Shavers as the most likely - he hasn't been injury plagued.  Because he was on PS not IR he could practice with the team all last season.  The PFN draft report says  "Shavers showed a lot of improvement in his game last season, yet he’s unpolished in most aspects of the receiver position. A lack of speed is a major concern" but also "Displays good route discipline, quickly gets out of breaks, and uses his frame to protect the ball. Works across the field to make himself an available target, possesses terrific eye/hand coordination, and comes away with the difficult catch. Tracks the pass in the air, gets vertical, and extends to make the reception away from his frame. Easily adjusts to the errant throw."

 

Kind of sounds like a guy who potentially could be coached up, if he's willing to put in the work.  Playing speed and burst can be improved by the right training.

 

5) last dark horse:  Bryan Thompson, UDFA from Utah and AZ State.  6'1", 195 lb, 32 5/8" arms, 4.54s 40.
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/arizona-state-2023-nfl-draft-scouting-reports/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Thompson_(American_football)

Didn't do much in college, but the Bills brought him in and quietly kept him on the PS all last season.  PFN had some good things to say about him pre-draft: "

 

 

OK Fellow Bills Fans, that's all I got.  Since Beane made a reference to sometimes the guys on the roster can elevate, but they have to prove it (and referenced Terrell Bernard) I thought this might be of interest.

 

Anyone else got any tea to spill on these guys?

Edit: listened to Beane's presser again to clarify that he said "young guys on the roster who can ascend" ie, he's not talking about Mack Hollins or Curtis Samuel

 

 

To be honest, when I was listening interview, I felt like he was referencing Shakir in how he started to emerge last year and set to take on a bigger role.  
 

It could be someone else, but the way he was speaking about it just sounded like he was still referencing Shakir who he had referenced as well already.  
 

If it wasn’t Shakir and instead someone else, then I think maybe Shorter would make the most sense.

[The BLUES Brothers]

It may be mentioned elsewhere - but Beane also talked about when guys get thrown the ball they need to catch it. A guy like Ladd McConkey would be someone who could be had in 2nd and grab quite a few passes. Flame away...

[Alphadawg7]

12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Thanks for the effort with the write-ups.........but you played yourself here.

 

Beane was talking up Dane Jackson like he was a CB1 before he drafted Elam.

 

It's what he does.   Set the bar of expectations low.  

 

-"Hmmmm.........maybe WR isn't REALLY a need?   Beane's got this!"

 

-"Oh, we got a WR in round 1!   I know it wasn't a need but I'm glad Beane got us one.  Dude is a wizard!"

 

Don't worry, you'll forget Beane even said it later.

I think some clarity needs to be made.  When Beane was talking about not needing that WR1 it was in reference to being asked about making a big “Diggs” like trade for a proven star WR1 like Aiyuk.  
 

Beane stated that Josh was in a different place (when he got Diggs) as an ascending player and they felt someone like Diggs was needed on this team for his continued growth.  He then said where Josh is now he doesn’t feel like that is necessary where he needs to make an expensive and big move for a WR1.

 

He did however emphatically state he’s going after a WR in the drafts.  And people are mixing up his comments to mean he is not looking for a possible WR1 in draft, which is not at all what he said.  Beane knows a WR is coming via draft has to earn his role and isn’t going to be a bonafide WR1 day one.  
 

So there is no mistaking anything here, Beane is going after a WR and going to do it early in this draft, in which we all, including Beane, hopes becomes a legit WR1 for Allen.

 

 

[Big Turk]

13 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

I mean to me it sounds like he's talking about Khalil Shakir. I know thats not the greatest example but I think they are expecting huge things out of him. My next best guess would be Justin Shorter since Shorter didn't play at all last year much like Bernard in his rookie season and then broke out year 2.

 

I'm expecting big things out of Shakir also...and the advanced metrics strongly back that up.

[Beck Water]

26 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

To be honest, when I was listening interview, I felt like he was referencing Shakir in how he started to emerge last year and set to take on a bigger role.  
 

It could be someone else, but the way he was speaking about it just sounded like he was still referencing Shakir who he had referenced as well already.  
 

If it wasn’t Shakir and instead someone else, then I think maybe Shorter would make the most sense.

 

The thing is, and call me a stubborn atavist if you wish (I've surely been called worse) but while it would be glorious if he did, I just can't wrap my mind around it being realistic to expect Shakir to become that #1-type downfield threat boundary guy.  I don't think there ever has been a stubby-armed WR who has succeeded in that role.  Doesn't mean he can't be the first I guess, but how would it work?

 

Shakir has shown real talent in the roles he was asked to play last season, which should be expanded and extended, but why ask him to "ascend" into a role he's not physically suited for?  On the other hand, if we give him more of what he was asked to do last year, I feel he's already demonstrated his NFL quality.

 

Overall after diving into this, I think Bryan Thompson is the "dark horse" I have the most hope for.  He's the only one who has Bernard-like superlatives buried in his pre-draft scouting report, and he had a full season on the PS to work on his game.

 

KWIM?  Oh, I'll put it here.  Bernard's pre-draft profile pegged him as a 5th round pick, "average backup or special teamer".  But it also said stuff like "Bernard possesses elite intangibles and teams will be drawn to him because of it. He's resilient, productive and showed a willingness to play through pain." and "Scouts rave about his leadership and character. Never-quit attitude despite adversity. Film junkie who rang up 100-plus tackles in 2019 and 2021. Rapid read and response against play-action. On a continuous quest to go get the football. Loose and fluid in pursuit and change of direction. Bends and flattens off the corner as a blitzer. Speed to cover man targets underneath." 

 

When we drafted him I focused more on the grade and assessment.  Then after he took over at MLB and racked up 23 tackles, 2 TFL, 2 sacks, 2 INT, 2 TFL, and a fumble recovery in his first 3 games I was like "who TF is this masked man?" and went back and read more carefully and went "uh huh, OKAY, I see now".

 

Anyway, when I read the pre-draft profiles and looked at the injury history, the only one of those WR who had some elite stuff a la Bernard hidden in his pre-draft profile was Bryan Thompson: "Runs sharp routes, stays low exiting breaks, and positions himself to make the reception. Possesses eye/hand coordination, tracks the pass in the air, and gets vertical to make the reception.  Displays strong hands, snatches the fastball from the air, and easily adjusts to the pass to make the catch in stride. Shows focus and eye/hand coordination and makes plenty of difficult catches."   

 

FWIW - probably not much. 

For the record, I'd love to see Shorter succeed, but I think when a guy comes into the NFL with a history of hammy injuries and spends his rookie year on IR not practicing with the team due to hammy, it doesn't bode well.  When he's described in his scouting profile as " too leggy and gradual in short spaces to escape press quickly or win consistently underneath" and "Slow getting off the snap and into the pattern. Linear release allows press to touch him up. Loses route momentum making turns.", well, trying to improve on all that with an injured hammy is a Big Ask.

Edited April 19 by Beck Water

[BillsVet]

The issue with a WR/TE group consisting of short to intermediate options is that it is limited and predictable.  With no speed guy, teams can play up because the deep threat isn't on the roster.  Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid (how they used him last year) and whatever else do not offer this kind of capability.  Perhaps they unleash Kincaid more, though it remains to be seen.    

 

Or, their WR group reflects how the coaches want to run the offense in which case it will fail against better defenses, i.e. in the playoffs if they get there.  Keeping the passing game closer to the LOS, reducing risk, and trying to assemble 8+ play drives is not aligned with successful modern offenses featuring a talented QB.      

 

For now, Samuel is an average Z and Shakir might be a good slot option.  The rest are JAGs who'll be, at best, WR4/5 options.   

Edited April 19 by BillsVet

[Logic]

I view Shorter and Shavers as career special teams guys.

I view the rest as training camp fodder.

Khalil Shakir seems me to be the only youngster in the receiving corps with a legitimate chance of elevating his game. Cole Beasley's best season here saw him post 82 catches for 967 yards and 4 TDs. Shakir had 611 yards and 2 TDs last year. With more opportunity and more consistent playing time, does anyone wanna bet that Shakir can't ascend to that Cole Beasley level?

Beyond that, I expect two draftees to join the ranks. So it'll be old guys Samuel and Hollins, and then a trio of youngsters, and likely one of the two career special teams guys whose last name stars with Sh.

[frostbitmic]

Somewhere I read that they were high on Shorter, don't know where I read it or why they think that, so Beane could be referring to him.

 

I've also read that both Shorter and Shavers are good ST players, for what it's worth.

 

We should have us another WR by the the end of next Friday at the latest.

[Alphadawg7]

26 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

The thing is, and call me a stubborn atavist if you wish (I've surely been called worse) but while it would be glorious if he did, I just can't wrap my mind around it being realistic to expect Shakir to become that #1-type downfield threat boundary guy.  I don't think there ever has been a stubby-armed WR who has succeeded in that role.  Doesn't mean he can't be the first I guess, but how would it work?

 

Shakir has shown real talent in the roles he was asked to play last season, which should be expanded and extended, but why ask him to "ascend" into a role he's not physically suited for?  On the other hand, if we give him more of what he was asked to do last year, I feel he's already demonstrated his NFL quality.

 

Overall after diving into this, I think Bryan Thompson is the "dark horse" I have the most hope for.  He's the only one who has Bernard-like superlatives buried in his pre-draft scouting report, and he had a full season on the PS to work on his game.

 

KWIM?  Oh, I'll put it here.  Bernard's pre-draft profile pegged him as a 5th round pick, "average backup or special teamer".  But it also said stuff like "Bernard possesses elite intangibles and teams will be drawn to him because of it. He's resilient, productive and showed a willingness to play through pain." and "Scouts rave about his leadership and character. Never-quit attitude despite adversity. Film junkie who rang up 100-plus tackles in 2019 and 2021. Rapid read and response against play-action. On a continuous quest to go get the football. Loose and fluid in pursuit and change of direction. Bends and flattens off the corner as a blitzer. Speed to cover man targets underneath." 

 

When we drafted him I focused more on the grade and assessment.  Then after he took over at MLB and racked up 23 tackles, 2 TFL, 2 sacks, 2 INT, 2 TFL, and a fumble recovery in his first 3 games I was like "who TF is this masked man?" and went back and read more carefully and went "uh huh, OKAY, I see now".

 

Anyway, when I read the pre-draft profiles and looked at the injury history, the only one of those WR who had some elite stuff a la Bernard hidden in his pre-draft profile was Bryan Thompson: "Runs sharp routes, stays low exiting breaks, and positions himself to make the reception. Possesses eye/hand coordination, tracks the pass in the air, and gets vertical to make the reception.  Displays strong hands, snatches the fastball from the air, and easily adjusts to the pass to make the catch in stride. Shows focus and eye/hand coordination and makes plenty of difficult catches."   

 

FWIW - probably not much. 

For the record, I'd love to see Shorter succeed, but I think when a guy comes into the NFL with a history of hammy injuries and spends his rookie year on IR not practicing with the team due to hammy, it doesn't bode well.  When he's described in his scouting profile as " too leggy and gradual in short spaces to escape press quickly or win consistently underneath" and "Slow getting off the snap and into the pattern. Linear release allows press to touch him up. Loses route momentum making turns.", well, trying to improve on all that with an injured hammy is a Big Ask.

I didn’t take Beanes comments about guys stepping up to be about one of the WRs becoming a boundary WR1 to replace Diggs…more just about young guys stepping up in general using Bernard as an example.  
 

Which is why based on his convo and mention of Shakir, I think Shakir is who he is talking about.  Remember, Shakir doesn’t have to be a boundary WR to be a big part of our offense, he can do it from the slot.  Cole was a more niche player and almost had 1000 yards out of the slot.  

 

 

[Ralonzo]

7 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Our core group for passing targets is likely to be: Samuel, Kincaid, Rd1 pick, Shakir, Rd 4 pick, Cook, Knox

 

As to who those 2 draft picks will be, that's anyone's opinion as of now.  My "hope" is they take:

Rd 1: Worthy (if there),  or Franklin

Rd4: Javon Baker

 

Curious to see which way Beane takes it: 1) overspend for one of the Big 4 who are highly likely to play X and be WR1, 2) think in terms of drafting a complementary pair for the Diggs and Davis roles. Guys like Mitchell and Leggette are wild cards who could be that WR1 but you're rolling the dice. Cap considerations dectate preservation of draft capital - filling roster holes with entry-level contracts who can contribute to a team with a top-3 QB in the league, i.e. the KC model. It's not enough to build a team just to beat the Chiefs anymore. Of course in a wonderful wonderful world Thomas slips to the 20s and the Bills make the move at a reasonable cost but I think they just can't sell the farm with their cap situation.

 

So of the likely receivers of that tier, you're looking for the guy who can do Diggs things first - sharp routes, separation, and/or insane speed. Explosive guys who threaten at three-levels. Franklin, McConkey, Worthy, Tez Walker, Pearsall (his play metrics concern me tho... Franklin's are excellent). If you're not in love with one of them, someone should be in reach from 60 for a small move-up - or certainly in the mid-30's after a small move down from 28. From there your R4 and after guys who can be the X are Rice, Baker, Polk, McCaffrey even Wilson or Coleman if they drop to the R3/R4 range. There's probably PFA guys out of this group who'd have a chance out of this class.

 

Being a degenerate mock drafter I've come around to the trade-down approach more often that not and found value to fill roster holes where if half of them hit, the Bills window stays open even this year. Difference makers come out of every round and every draft; even if Beane isn't hitting home runs he's been among the tops hitting singles and doubles, guys who can play in the league and help a team. That's what the Bills need out of their drafts now.

[RyanC883]

need a legit game changing WR1 who can function in the playoffs (something Diggs did not do).  If Diggs shows up in the playoffs, we are likely talking about at least 1 SB win.  

 

I think we need to move up for one of the top 3 (Nabers, Harrison, or Odunze).  

[ChevyVanMiller]

I think Shavers is a dark horse to make the final roster. Mainly because he was considered the best gunner in the nation his last year in college (see the tweet below).

With the changes to the return game, and with some longtime Bills ST players gone, I think he gets a real look.

 

MeRk on X: "I’ll be blunt, Tyrell Shavers is an elite special teams player and was the best gunner I watched all of last year, and it wasn’t close…at all…great add as a UDFA #BillsMafia https://t.co/RoTSAgUsVd" / X (twitter.com)

[fan_in_tx]

Go Get Denzel Mims off Steelers.  Big, Fast.. Ex Jet.. 1m year is a deal. 

[Doc]

4 hours ago, FireChans said:

Someone will have to tell Kincaid and Knox (and their agents) that they are WR’s now.

As much as I agree with this, to @Beck Water’s point, I really did like Hamler in 2020. I thought he was a weapon.

 

he is my pick of these bums to get over 200 yards this season. 

 

Eh, Kincaid is basically a big WR.  But I wasn't saying they shouldn't draft a WR early, next week.  And there are still (and will be) guys available out there.

Edited April 19 by Doc

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, ChevyVanMiller said:

I think Shavers is a dark horse to make the final roster. Mainly because he was considered the best gunner in the nation his last year in college (see the tweet below).

With the changes to the return game, and with some longtime Bills ST players gone, I think he gets a real look.

 

MeRk on X: "I’ll be blunt, Tyrell Shavers is an elite special teams player and was the best gunner I watched all of last year, and it wasn’t close…at all…great add as a UDFA #BillsMafia https://t.co/RoTSAgUsVd" / X (twitter.com)

 

We signed Mack Hollins for the league minimum basically.  They can't carry 2 ST only WRs so either you pick the better WR or the better special teamer.  

 

Injuries happen though so he's a definite possibility.  

[Dillenger4]

15 hours ago, Beck Water said:

Beane, in his sincere attempt to persuade us to believe he doesn't view the lack of a Diggs-size talent on the roster as a gaping hole that he intends to address in the draft, alluded to "young guys on the roster who can ascend, but they have to prove it too".  He made an analogy to Terrell Bernard, who played very little his rookie season then "elevated" in a Big Way last season. "Tremaine Who?"

Thought it might be a good time to profile just who is lurking in the depths of the roster.

 

In order of seniority:

1) Andy Isabella, 2019 2nd round pick of the Cards (62 overall).  Small fast guy - 5'8 3/4", 29 3/4" arms, 4.31 40-time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Isabella

"Isabella entered the 2021 season sixth on the Cardinals wide receiver depth chart, and only had one catch the entire season and was inactive for half the season."

The Cards brought him through training camp and onto the active roster, but waived him in early Oct 2022.  Since then he's been on the Ravens and Bills practice squad

Draft profile: https://www.nfl.com/prospects/andy-isabella/32004953-4156-2722-bf26-62181351a224
He was a successful RB and State-level winning track star in HS.  "Isabella has the feet and fakes to uncover in a hallway closet, and the former high school sprint champion proved to Georgia that his ability to win deep should not be underestimated. Isabella could become a menace on option routes with the ability to add vertical routes from the slot, but he must improve his pass-catching consistency and smoothness into his breaks in order to transition all that speed to the NFL."
 

He actually played 34% of the ST snaps for Buffalo last season, but it wasn't as a returner (1 KR to add to 8 previous KR).  He had not previously played much ST.

 

Chance of elevating as a receiver?  I give this "low" - see I think @Kirby Jackson comments about the odds of success for short receivers with short arms.  Never Say Never but....  On the other hand, if he's learned to live with a screw loose, perhaps he could continue to contribute on ST.

 

2) KJ Hamler, 2020 2nd round pick of the Broncos (46 overall).  Another small fast guy - 5'8 5/8", 30 3/4" arms, didn't run at combine, said to have 4.27s 40-time

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K._J._Hamler

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/k.j.-hamler/32004841-4d38-6186-eea5-110d32b9644c

This guy's NFL career to date has been the living demonstration of the lyrics "if it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all".  He had a hammy injury at the combine.  He had 30 catches for 381 yds and 3 TD as a rookie, but finished the season on IR with a hammy. 

In his 2nd year, he had a great training camp and went on IR with a torn ACL Week 3.  

In his 3rd year, he played in 7 games but just as he might have been coming up to speed off the ACL, he suffered another hammy and was IR'd again

In his 4th year, he tore his pec training on his own in the off-season then developed pericarditis in July 2023.  Denver had enough and waived him with Non Football Injury.

He spent 2023 on the Colts practice squad, but was not signed to a futures contract after the season.

 

Chance of elevating as a receiver?  Well, he showed flashes here and there of being able to play in the NFL, but repeated hammies and an ACL make this unlikely unless Beane has directed the equipment staff to cover his locker stall with 4-leaf clovers, hired him a personal leprechaun, and directed one of the training staff to follow him around providing hamstring massage.

 

3) Justin Shorter, Bills 2023 5th round pick (150 overall).  Big guy - 6'4", 229 lb, 33 3/4" arms, 10" hands.  4.55 40-time.

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/justin-shorter/32005348-4f65-1252-2fb4-216da3af656d

Spent last season on IR.  

 

He was the top receiver prospect in the country in 2018, but somehow never delivered on that promise at the college level.  Was benched for dropping passes at Penn State.  Made good at Florida, but was limited his Sr year due to hammy injuries.  Spent his rookie year with the Bills on IR due to (wait for it) hammy injury.

 

His scouting profile, not that Zierlein is infallible, is not encouraging to me; I translate it as "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane".  It praises his physicality and toughness and ability to track the ball and high-point a catch, but also notes below-average foot quickness, slow and linear release that make it hard for him to beat press coverage, and loss of momentum in turns.  Reading between the lines, I kind of get the sense of a guy who might have let his HS success go to his head a bit?

Being on IR meant he could not practice with the team, except for a 3 week "designated for return" interval which saw him returned to IR.

 

4) Tyrell Shavers, 2023 UDFA from San Diego State after transferring from Alabama to Mississippi to SD State.  Big guy - 6'4", 211 lb, 32 3/8" arms, said to run 4.55 40

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/san-diego-state-2023-nfl-draft-scouting-reports-include-jesse-matthews-alama-uluave-and-tyrell-shavers/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyrell_Shavers

He's a bit of a dark horse to me.  He apparently spent 3 seasons at Alabama buried on the depth chart, transferred to Mississippi State, saw some playing time and caught 9 passes for 104 yds, then transferred again.  Had 38 passes for 643 yards, and three touchdowns with SD State and was a ST ace.

 

Elevate?  Of the preceding 3, I guess I see Shavers as the most likely - he hasn't been injury plagued.  Because he was on PS not IR he could practice with the team all last season.  The PFN draft report says  "Shavers showed a lot of improvement in his game last season, yet he’s unpolished in most aspects of the receiver position. A lack of speed is a major concern" but also "Displays good route discipline, quickly gets out of breaks, and uses his frame to protect the ball. Works across the field to make himself an available target, possesses terrific eye/hand coordination, and comes away with the difficult catch. Tracks the pass in the air, gets vertical, and extends to make the reception away from his frame. Easily adjusts to the errant throw."

 

Kind of sounds like a guy who potentially could be coached up, if he's willing to put in the work.  Playing speed and burst can be improved by the right training.

 

5) last dark horse:  Bryan Thompson, UDFA from Utah and AZ State.  6'1", 195 lb, 32 5/8" arms, 4.54s 40.
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/arizona-state-2023-nfl-draft-scouting-reports/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Thompson_(American_football)

Didn't do much in college, but the Bills brought him in and quietly kept him on the PS all last season.  PFN had some good things to say about him pre-draft: "

 

 

OK Fellow Bills Fans, that's all I got.  Since Beane made a reference to sometimes the guys on the roster can elevate, but they have to prove it (and referenced Terrell Bernard) I thought this might be of interest.

 

Anyone else got any tea to spill on these guys?

Edit: listened to Beane's presser again to clarify that he said "young guys on the roster who can ascend" ie, he's not talking about Mack Hollins or Curtis Samuel

 

 

You can sit and do this all day - take Beanes comments any way you like. I for one believe him 100% - Defense will be the pick this draft. When he says "young guys on roster" he is referring to the WR's you mention (good write up btw!) but he is also talking about Shakir, Kincaid and Cook without a doubt.

Add in Knox who, last time I looked, is still on the roster. Now we have some weapons! Add Samuel...pretty good looking list. Add a rookie in round 3 of the draft or round 2 and voila.

[somnus00]

This management team is too smart to give Khalil Shakir the Josh Reed treatment.

[Paup 1995MVP]

17 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

These guys are all either fast-but-small or big-but-slow.  Not encouraging.  

 

Then again, Steve Largent was neither big nor fast and still did okay in the NFL.  

 

What a reference.  Steve Largent was amazing Hondo.  As solid of a technician at receiver as I can remember.  Wow other than Jerry Rice, who was really better for that long a period?  Maybe Larry Fitzgerald?  

Isabella is really small, and didn’t seem to do much when he returned kicks.  Look at Harty last year.  He made one play(albeit a big play).  It’s not a small man’s game.  You need speed.  But you need some size otherwise you get swallowed up.  Very few Darron Sproles in the NFL. 

 

I think Shorter may have some juice.  He has size.  But can he accelerate is the question.  Hopefully he is not James Hardy. 

[Nuncha]

17 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Duke Williams

Thought it was Robert Foster??

[SoonerBillsFan]

17 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

He was most likely talking about Kincaid and Shakir. In the end, Buffalo may have three or four guys shoulder the load collectively instead of just one.
 

Buffalo may add a Pearsall or a Polk or a Worthy or Franklin. We may have a deep unit overall but no Batman, just 3-4 Robins working together to get the job done.

Our WR Corp is the Teen Titans 

[Paup 1995MVP]

4 hours ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Curious to see which way Beane takes it: 1) overspend for one of the Big 4 who are highly likely to play X and be WR1, 2) think in terms of drafting a complementary pair for the Diggs and Davis roles. Guys like Mitchell and Leggette are wild cards who could be that WR1 but you're rolling the dice. Cap considerations dectate preservation of draft capital - filling roster holes with entry-level contracts who can contribute to a team with a top-3 QB in the league, i.e. the KC model. It's not enough to build a team just to beat the Chiefs anymore. Of course in a wonderful wonderful world Thomas slips to the 20s and the Bills make the move at a reasonable cost but I think they just can't sell the farm with their cap situation.

 

So of the likely receivers of that tier, you're looking for the guy who can do Diggs things first - sharp routes, separation, and/or insane speed. Explosive guys who threaten at three-levels. Franklin, McConkey, Worthy, Tez Walker, Pearsall (his play metrics concern me tho... Franklin's are excellent). If you're not in love with one of them, someone should be in reach from 60 for a small move-up - or certainly in the mid-30's after a small move down from 28. From there your R4 and after guys who can be the X are Rice, Baker, Polk, McCaffrey even Wilson or Coleman if they drop to the R3/R4 range. There's probably PFA guys out of this group who'd have a chance out of this class.

 

Being a degenerate mock drafter I've come around to the trade-down approach more often that not and found value to fill roster holes where if half of them hit, the Bills window stays open even this year. Difference makers come out of every round and every draft; even if Beane isn't hitting home runs he's been among the tops hitting singles and doubles, guys who can play in the league and help a team. That's what the Bills need out of their drafts now.

Excellent post Ralonzo. If we can trade back and draft two solid receivers, I am all in.  Will Legette from S Carolina be there in the 2nd round?  And do you like Roman Wilson?  I don’t follow all the individuals so much in college.  More the teams because I love gambling on college ball, and watching the games.  Except for my Maize and Blue. I know the players pretty well.  Wilson is a gamer.  Tough quick smart has real strong hands.  Not a big guy though.  
 

And let’s not forget we have Josh Allen. And he can make some of these guys look real good.  Davis and Diggs were certainly nothing special last year.  And we were a missed FG and a whole bunch of injuries on the defense from playing in the SB anyways.  And that’s pretty much because of #17. 

[Ralonzo]

5 hours ago, Logic said:

So it'll be old guys Samuel and Hollins, and then a trio of youngsters, and likely one of the two career special teams guys whose last name stars with Sh.

 

Relying on Sh-avers and Sh-orter

Will send Bills fans into a fit

They'll be there with pitchforks and torches

With both of them playing like Sh-aving Cream

Be nice and clean

Shave every day and you'll always look keen

Edited April 19 by Ralonzo

[KDIGGZ]

22 minutes ago, Nuncha said:

Thought it was Robert Foster??

All of those random receivers over the years are just a blur to me at this point!

[Ralonzo]

45 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Will Legette from S Carolina be there in the 2nd round?  And do you like Roman Wilson?

 

Leggette is a real wildcard. Brugler has a 3rd on him, but with the caveat that if a team looks at his tape and sees DK Metcalf they might use a 1.

 

Roman Wilson, I do like him, I just view him as a duplication of skills to Shakir in how you'd have to deploy him, i.e. mainly from the slot. The Bills already have the proven commodity there, that's not the hole on their WR corps.

 

There's a scenario and I think it's likely where you get 5 or more WR getting tabbed before 28, in which case you'd likely have a QB or 2 (Penix, Nix) dropping to the bottom of Round 1, and there's incentive for a team to pack a few picks to jump up for 1) their QB and 2) the 5th year option in case the QB hits. Or, maybe there's an OT run and a team has just one guy left they are interested in and wants to lock it up.

 

On the Rich Hill charts, the following teams are well positioned to offer proper value to move up to 28:

 

1) LV with #44, #77, #112 (there ain't a QB who's there at 13 who's worth it, but they're the Raiders, who knows)

2) ATL with #43, #74, #79, #109 (boy I'd love this one)

3) CAR with #33, #39, #65, #101 (if they don't believe in Bryce Young, and they shouldn't)

4) WAS with #36, #40, #67 and #78 (if they don't go QB at #2)

5) NE at #34 and #68 (if they go MHJ at #3)

 

Atlanta makes a ton of sense if they see a QB they want at 28. The Bills swapping #28, #128 and #204 is a dead-nuts-on value match for #43, #74 and #109. Add in #60 and the Bills can chalk off 4 positions from among their needs: WR, S, Edge, DT, OT.

Edited April 19 by Ralonzo

[DeepPass]

21 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I don’t even think Shorter makes the team.

I bet he does

[VW82]

Yeah I wouldn't trust any of that from Beane. None of those guys are good enough to get it done on the outside against top coverage. We need someone that isn't on the roster. 

 

Also, to whatever degree he was trying to tell us something, I do think they believe Kinkaid and Shakir will make leaps. I also think they will. Cook will hopefully improve in the passing game too. But we still need another wide out. 

[Beck Water]

8 hours ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Relying on Sh-avers and Sh-orter

Will send Bills fans into a fit

They'll be there with pitchforks and torches

With both of them playing like Sh-aving Cream

Be nice and clean

Shave every day and you'll always look keen

 

I didn't get the tune at first now I can't Un Get It

 

EDIT:  Never say TBD is not educational, @Ralonzo.  I was THIS many days old when I learned that shaving cream is flammable!

 

 

Edited April 20 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

7 hours ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Leggette is a real wildcard. Brugler has a 3rd on him, but with the caveat that if a team looks at his tape and sees DK Metcalf they might use a 1.

 

Roman Wilson, I do like him, I just view him as a duplication of skills to Shakir in how you'd have to deploy him, i.e. mainly from the slot. The Bills already have the proven commodity there, that's not the hole on their WR corps.

 

There's a scenario and I think it's likely where you get 5 or more WR getting tabbed before 28, in which case you'd likely have a QB or 2 (Penix, Nix) dropping to the bottom of Round 1, and there's incentive for a team to pack a few picks to jump up for 1) their QB and 2) the 5th year option in case the QB hits. Or, maybe there's an OT run and a team has just one guy left they are interested in and wants to lock it up.

 

On the Rich Hill charts, the following teams are well positioned to offer proper value to move up to 28:

 

1) LV with #44, #77, #112 (there ain't a QB who's there at 13 who's worth it, but they're the Raiders, who knows)

2) ATL with #43, #74, #79, #109 (boy I'd love this one)

3) CAR with #33, #39, #65, #101 (if they don't believe in Bryce Young, and they shouldn't)

4) WAS with #36, #40, #67 and #78 (if they don't go QB at #2)

5) NE at #34 and #68 (if they go MHJ at #3)

 

Atlanta makes a ton of sense if they see a QB they want at 28. The Bills swapping #28, #128 and #204 is a dead-nuts-on value match for #43, #74 and #109. Add in #60 and the Bills can chalk off 4 positions from among their needs: WR, S, Edge, DT, OT.

 

So the Panthers do have a new Buffalo connection since they hired Dan Morgan as Assistant GM in 2021 and just promoted him to GM....I haven't looked at the value match for swapping #28 for #33 - looks like an 80 point difference which would be like maybe their high 4th round pick with a Buffalo 5th rounder given back as change?  If there was some reason they wanted to trade back into the 1st round for that extra option year or to lock up a player they want.

[Ralonzo]

16 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

So the Panthers do have a new Buffalo connection since they hired Dan Morgan as Assistant GM in 2021 and just promoted him to GM....I haven't looked at the value match for swapping #28 for #33 - looks like an 80 point difference which would be like maybe their high 4th round pick with a Buffalo 5th rounder given back as change?  If there was some reason they wanted to trade back into the 1st round for that extra option year or to lock up a player they want.

 

For Carolina the closest match is #33 + #101 for #28 + #200 (214 points each per Rich Hill values). I think that should ensure one of Franklin/McConkey/Leggette/Worthy at least, if that's the tier they've got.

 

For a bigger gamble, #39 + #65 for #28 + #128 (Buf gives 228, gets 231). Think I'd rather do the first, if you're targeting one of the top 5 safeties with that 101 pick someone should be around in that range. That position should have a negative draft premium so guys with a 2nd round grade should be gettable in the 3rd.

 

The Bills draft slots just match so poorly to where the guys who really fit needs are projected. Doing mocks this year has been an interesting jenga.