interesting piece in Washington Post about likely movement of vet WRs

[dave mcbride]

Some interesting quotes from anonymous GMs in here: https://wapo.st/3TXKgyG (I made this a gift article and it should be accessible to all). 

 

'Brandon Aiyuk/Deebo Samuel (49ers)

 

“One of them won’t be back there,” the GM said. The exec said: “Personally, I’d be shocked if they don’t move one. When you study the model of how they roster build and structure their contracts, and with the quarterback being up in a year, I don’t think they will pay them both. … And if Deebo was the guy to go, I think he’d already be gone.” Another GM opined that he believes Aiyuk would have already secured his new contract if it was going to come from San Francisco. “I think Aiyuk is the one to watch,” that GM, also sniffing around on wide receivers, said. Another exec said: “I don’t think they’re going to get everything they’ll want for him [Aiyuk] because of what you’re going to have to pay him. But they have to listen.”'

Edited April 15 by dave mcbride

[BuffaloRebound]

Interesting article especially about teams not wanting to give WR’s long term deals.  That would suggest Metcalf would be more desirable than Aiyuk and it might be cheaper draft capital wise to get them than people think.  

[Warriorspikes51]

1 minute ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Interesting article especially about teams not wanting to give WR’s long term deals.  That would suggest Metcalf would be more desirable than Aiyuk and it might be cheaper draft capital wise to get them than people think.  

 

Eagles just gave DeVonta Smith 3 for 75 mil 

& if the Bills got DK Metcalf, I'd do laps around my house.   One of my favorite players.  Believe he'd be a complete monster with Allen 

Edited April 15 by Warriorspikes51

[Logic]

I tend to think that with as expensive as WR contracts are getting, and as many good ones as are coming out in the draft each year, and as quickly as many of them seem to be able to hit the ground running...

WR may become the next position where it's smart to "turn and burn". Draft a guy, pay him on a rookie wage scale for four years (or five if he's a first rounder), then trade him or let him walk and get a compensatory pick. Wash, rinse, repeat. Only the elite guys will merit those mega-extensions.

If the supply of good, draftable WRs continues to go up, and the cost to re-sign them continues to climb, the wave will crest, and they'll eventually start going the way of RBs.

Maybe. Just maybe.

[KDIGGZ]

I don't think the Bills dumped a big contract to sign up for another. Probably looking to get cheaper at the position.

[Robert Paulson]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

I tend to think that with as expensive as WR contracts are getting, and as many good ones as are coming out in the draft each year, and as quickly as many of them seem to be able to hit the ground running...

WR may become the next position where it's smart to "turn and burn". Draft a guy, pay him on a rookie wage scale for four years (or five if he's a first rounder), then trade him or let him walk and get a compensatory pick. Wash, rinse, repeat. Only the elite guys will merit those mega-extensions.

If the supply of good, draftable WRs continues to go up, and the cost to re-sign them continues to climb, the wave will crest, and they'll eventually start going the way of RBs.

Maybe. Just maybe.

This is the way

[BigBadBills]

1 hour ago, KDIGGZ said:

I don't think the Bills dumped a big contract to sign up for another. Probably looking to get cheaper at the position.

Bingo 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Eagles just gave DeVonta Smith 3 for 75 mil 

& if the Bills got DK Metcalf, I'd do laps around my house.   One of my favorite players.  Believe he'd be a complete monster with Allen 

 

There were a number of folks here - IIRC I think @BADOLBILZ was one - who were salty over trading up to Cody Ford in the 2nd when DK Metcalf was still on the board.

 

Though, if we're playing 2019 Draft "do over", I call dibs on AJ Brown.

Edited April 15 by Beck Water

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, KDIGGZ said:

I don't think the Bills dumped a big contract to sign up for another. Probably looking to get cheaper at the position.

 

 

They didn't dump Diggs because of the contract.    They dumped him IN SPITE of the contract.   His attitude and declining play were the top 2 factors.

 

I don't think they want another big contract at ANY position.    But I suspect that's a fluid situation depending on the player.

 

I don't think guys like Aiyuk and Higgins would be appealing enough to pay $30M aav.  They have never been the primary option for the good iterations of their current teams but will command contracts that might look like 80%-90% of Justin Jefferson value.

[BADOLBILZ]

45 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

There were a number of folks here - IIRC I think @BADOLBILZ was one - who were salty over trading up to Cody Ford in the 2nd when DK Metcalf was still on the board.

 

Though, if we're playing 2019 Draft "do over", I call dibs on AJ Brown.

 

 

Yeah AJ Brown has separated from Metcalf but DK is still really good.     If they could get him for a second round pick...........that would be a great get, IMO.    If the draft were to go the way the mock community expects then the part of the WR group that drops way off by 60 is definitely the boundary WR.    DK is a legit boundary option and he's been a better player in the playoffs than the regular season.   Likely because of his physicality.   Good fit for late season games in Highmark stadium, IMO.

 

 

Edited April 15 by BADOLBILZ

[dave mcbride]

23 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

They didn't dump Diggs because of the contract.    They dumped him IN SPITE of the contract.   His attitude and declining play were the top 2 factors.

 

I don't think they want another big contract at ANY position.    But I suspect that's a fluid situation depending on the player.

 

I don't think guys like Aiyuk and Higgins would be appealing enough to pay $30M aav.  They have never been the primary option for the good iterations of their current teams but will command contracts that might look like 80%-90% of Justin Jefferson value.

It appears that despite the numbers being thrown around, no WR is getting close to $30 million per, at least yet. From Florio, who is good on this sort of issue (althoug certainly not every type of issue): https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/top-receiver-deals-definitely-arent-what-they-seem-to-be. 

[Mr. WEO]

so, the Bills are on to... Aiyuk, you say?

[Roundybout]

 

 

 

 

Get JJ, not Aiyuk

[H2o]

10 minutes ago, Roundybout said:

 

 

 

 

Get JJ, not Aiyuk

Only if you're good with paying him more than Tyreek Hill annually, as well as having to give up multiple high end draft picks. Great player, but pass. 

[Aussie Joe]

There are a couple of names on that list I could get behind … but until the Bills free up some cap space I’ll keep the powder dry …

[Aussie Joe]

5 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

I don't think the Bills dumped a big contract to sign up for another. Probably looking to get cheaper at the position.

To be going into this season paying their most expensive receiver $8m is crazy … if this is the plan… they better hit on two big names in the draft …

 

Picking a guy at 28 and the fourth round isn’t good enough in my view 

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said:

To be going into this season paying their most expensive receiver $8m is crazy … if this is the plan… they better hit on two big names in the draft …

 

Picking a guy at 28 and the fourth round isn’t good enough in my view 

It depends.  What does Joe Brady have to say about his scheme?  And it's time for Josh to make his WR's better.

 

Buy who knows what Beane is thinking.

[Aussie Joe]

1 minute ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

It depends.  What does Joe Brady have to say about his scheme?  And it's time for Josh to make his WR's better.

 

Buy who knows what Beane is thinking.

You can’t make chicken salad out of chicken you know what 

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said:

You can’t make chicken salad out of chicken you know what 

Wow. I like Kincaid, Samuel and Shakir and don't feel they are ****.  I also think a 1st or 2nd round WR won't be **** either.  

[Aussie Joe]

Just now, SoonerBillsFan said:

Wow. I like Kincaid, Samuel and Shakir and don't feel they are ****.  I also think a 1st or 2nd round WR won't be **** either.  

It won’t be enough 

[SoonerBillsFan]

5 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

It won’t be enough 

Well then we are screwed.  I can't see beane dumping a huge contract just to add another one this year.

[Aussie Joe]

3 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Well then we are screwed.  I can't see beane dumping a huge contract just to add another one this year.

They dumped Diggs because he was a cancer … what he got paid is irrelevant 

[HappyDays]

9 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

and with the quarterback being up in a year

 

Man I'm shocked by how many people see the 49ers extending Purdy as a foregone conclusion. I thought he was by far their biggest weakness in the Super Bowl. He couldn't win one with an elite LT and like 4 elite weapons. What else can they possibly give him to get them over the hump? It would be a monumental mistake to give him a big extension IMO.

[Aussie Joe]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Man I'm shocked by how many people see the 49ers extending Purdy as a foregone conclusion. I thought he was by far their biggest weakness in the Super Bowl. He couldn't win one with an elite LT and like 4 elite weapons. What else can they possibly give him to get them over the hump? It would be a monumental mistake to give him a big extension IMO.

Well.. when they tried to pick one giving up multiple firsts it was one of the biggest disasters we have seen in 20 years ..

 

Maybe they should be sticking with what they have based on that effort 

 

Edited April 16 by Aussie Joe

[WickedGame]

9 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

I don't think the Bills dumped a big contract to sign up for another. Probably looking to get cheaper at the position.

I hate when people say this. It’s reductive. 
 

There’s a massive difference between paying big money to a 30-year-old Stefon Diggs who underperformed and paying big money to a 26-year-old Aiyuk who has improved every year and is easily in his prime. 
 

I’m not saying the $25m-$30m/year would be easy to swallow, but let’s not pretend Diggs’ salary and value is an apples-to-apples comparison with Aiyuk at a similar salary.

 

Nobody wants a car payment after you’ve just finished paying off your car, but I’d rather have a new Maserati than a used Mercedes. 

[stuvian]

I think DK Metcalf is an all out world beater but I just don't see us doing something splashy. It's not like we're one player away. We need a center, some back 7 defenders and another pass rusher. Expecting Josh to win every game for us is fool's gold. 

59 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Man I'm shocked by how many people see the 49ers extending Purdy as a foregone conclusion. I thought he was by far their biggest weakness in the Super Bowl. He couldn't win one with an elite LT and like 4 elite weapons. What else can they possibly give him to get them over the hump? It would be a monumental mistake to give him a big extension IMO.

what do you see SF doing at QB instead? 

[HappyDays]

11 minutes ago, stuvian said:

what do you see SF doing at QB instead? 

 

That isn't the question. The question is, has San Fran hit their ceiling with Purdy? Given how ridiculously talented that supporting cast was they should have had an all time dominant playoff offense. Instead they fell short in critical moments and probably shouldn't have even made it past Detroit to be honest. So now you're going to give Purdy all of his supporting cast's money and hope you somehow exceed last year's performance? I don't know what the answer is but he definitely isn't it IMO.

[That's No Moon]

17 minutes ago, stuvian said:

I think DK Metcalf is an all out world beater but I just don't see us doing something splashy. It's not like we're one player away. We need a center, some back 7 defenders and another pass rusher. Expecting Josh to win every game for us is fool's gold. 

 

Yeahhhhh, but Josh with a guy who can and will just go get the football has to be intriguing.

[ToGoGo]

Is Lamb available? I would take him over Aiyuk. 

[GASabresIUFan]

Bold prediction; WR is the next position to see contract deflation.  As we Bills fans now see, WRs have a limited shelf life.  To much talent at that position coming out of college and to many good guys floating around free agency.  Teams can likely afford one star pass catcher either at TE or WR, but the rest will likely rotate over time.

[dave mcbride]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

That isn't the question. The question is, has San Fran hit their ceiling with Purdy? Given how ridiculously talented that supporting cast was they should have had an all time dominant playoff offense. Instead they fell short in critical moments and probably shouldn't have even made it past Detroit to be honest. So now you're going to give Purdy all of his supporting cast's money and hope you somehow exceed last year's performance? I don't know what the answer is but he definitely isn't it IMO.

But he played lights out in the second half vs Detroit and won the game for them. Honestly, if SF stops a fourth and 2-3 on their own side of the field in OT, he’s the SB hero. He’s better than you give him credit for.

[HappyDays]

12 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

But he played lights out in the second half vs Detroit and won the game for them. Honestly, if SF stops a fourth and 2-3 on their own side of the field in OT, he’s the SB hero. He’s better than you give him credit for.

 

He threw a duck that bounced off a DB's facemask and miraculously bounced into Aiyuk's hands for a 50 yard completion. If that play gets intercepted as it should have been, the game would have been over right there.

 

Purdy's biggest strength is that he seemingly shares one brain with Kyle Shanahan. It's why a QB with his limitations can be as successful as he has been in that situation. But the physical limitations are just too much to overcome IMO. Constantly in the Super Bowl I saw a QB that was always off the mark whenever he had to deal with a bit of pressure. Guys were wide open all over the place and he just couldn't drive the ball to them. It's just too difficult to win a Super Bowl with that kind of fatal flaw. Eventually you're going to have to deal with a pass rush and win from a messy pocket.

 

There's two questions here - Can he win a Super Bowl? Sure, under perfect circumstances it's possible as he proved last year. Can he win a Super Bowl while taking up a sizeable percentage of the salary cap? To that I say no.

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

He threw a duck that bounced off a DB's facemask and miraculously bounced into Aiyuk's hands for a 50 yard completion. If that play gets intercepted as it should have been, the game would have been over right there.

 

Purdy's biggest strength is that he seemingly shares one brain with Kyle Shanahan. It's why a QB with his limitations can be as successful as he has been in that situation. But the physical limitations are just too much to overcome IMO. Constantly in the Super Bowl I saw a QB that was always off the mark whenever he had to deal with a bit of pressure. Guys were wide open all over the place and he just couldn't drive the ball to them. It's just too difficult to win a Super Bowl with that kind of fatal flaw. Eventually you're going to have to deal with a pass rush and win from a messy pocket.

 

There's two questions here - Can he win a Super Bowl? Sure, under perfect circumstances it's possible as he proved last year. Can he win a Super Bowl while taking up a sizeable percentage of the salary cap? To that I say no.

Brock Purdy should thank his lucky stars Tua exists running a derivative scheme from his HC’s tree. He seems like a good kid so I don’t like to rag on him, but he’s closer to Mac Jones than an elite QB.

[Nihilarian]

7 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

They dumped Diggs because he was a cancer … what he got paid is irrelevant 

Not only that, they ate 30 mill in cap space to dump him and another 3 mill to boot. When we look back I think it had to be done no matter how well he does during the regular season for the Texans.

[pennstate10]

9 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

To be going into this season paying their most expensive receiver $8m is crazy … if this is the plan… they better hit on two big names in the draft …

 

Picking a guy at 28 and the fourth round isn’t good enough in my view 

Hmmm…

Did the chiefs pay any WR >$8 million last year?

[Aussie Joe]

1 hour ago, pennstate10 said:

Hmmm…

Did the chiefs pay any WR >$8 million last year?

We aren’t the Chiefs … we are tying to beat them… unsuccessfully so far in the Playoffs 

[Matt_In_NH]

18 hours ago, Logic said:

I tend to think that with as expensive as WR contracts are getting, and as many good ones as are coming out in the draft each year, and as quickly as many of them seem to be able to hit the ground running...

WR may become the next position where it's smart to "turn and burn". Draft a guy, pay him on a rookie wage scale for four years (or five if he's a first rounder), then trade him or let him walk and get a compensatory pick. Wash, rinse, repeat. Only the elite guys will merit those mega-extensions.

If the supply of good, draftable WRs continues to go up, and the cost to re-sign them continues to climb, the wave will crest, and they'll eventually start going the way of RBs.

Maybe. Just maybe.

Supply and demand.    don’t think it will go the way or rbs any time soon but I think like rbs are maybe undervalued right now wrs are overvalued.   And that is part of what the gms are saying.  

[djp14150]

19 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Interesting article especially about teams not wanting to give WR’s long term deals.  That would suggest Metcalf would be more desirable than Aiyuk and it might be cheaper draft capital wise to get them than people think.  

WRs turning into RBs with many replaceable unless there is something very special about them…then you keep them.

 

from financial cap structure you can’t pay high on two WRs unlesss you are riding rookie contracts elsewhere. Top WR wants thr high money, but are thry worth it.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

20 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Eagles just gave DeVonta Smith 3 for 75 mil 

& if the Bills got DK Metcalf, I'd do laps around my house.   One of my favorite players.  Believe he'd be a complete monster with Allen 

It would definitely move a little bit if this happened

 

[Green Lightning]

19 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah AJ Brown has separated from Metcalf but DK is still really good.     If they could get him for a second round pick...........that would be a great get, IMO.    If the draft were to go the way the mock community expects then the part of the WR group that drops way off by 60 is definitely the boundary WR.    DK is a legit boundary option and he's been a better player in the playoffs than the regular season.   Likely because of his physicality.   Good fit for late season games in Highmark stadium, IMO.

 

 

I doubt they do anything until after the draft. Likely most teams are in that mode. If DK is available afterwards, that may be a great get depending on who we draft.