Diggs traded to Texans for picks

[turbo044]

3 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I like the move a poster said earlier. Draft McConkey@28 and move back up in the second for Legette/Coleman

Yep - that was me I think.  I believe trading up to 5/6 cost too much,  so I think Beane Monitors Thomas II and if he falls to the late teens, he tries to trade #28 and a 2025 2nd to move up and grab him.  If Thomas II goes earlier than 15, he does something like this mock draft I just did.

#28 McConkey

Trade #60, #133 and #160 to PHI for #50

#50 Legette (note: Coleman and Polk arestill available too if Beane prefers either).  Perhaps, if it played out this way, Beane wouldn't trade up and just wait to see who last to #60

[zow2]

Some of the panic stricken TV analysts on this mornings shows were pretty funny.  As if Diggs leaving the team is the single thing that is going to cause this season to be terrible.  The Bills will be fine.  It can never be proven but i suspect the team's record in 2024 would be the same whether Diggs was on the team or not.  The ball will be distributed to other guys and they WILL make plays.

[BeastMaster]

49 minutes ago, major said:

I’m busy and unable to check TBD as much as I want; therefore, I’m going to ask a question/make a comment I’m sure someone has asked somewhere since yesterday:

 

1. Was this the value for Diggs? A future 2nd rounder?! If so, I guess teams didn’t want him. 🤔 

 

2. I feel sorry for stroud having to deal with mixon and Diggs. Stroud seems like a good guy and these two won’t be great for him

What we got in return for unloading Diggs is actually a fairly good return. The Vikings second rounder will likely be much higher than Houstons would be. Not getting a pick this season stings a bit, but that pick we got will be a pretty valuable pick come 2025. Diggs is expensive, troublesome, aging, and didn't produce at his expectations the last half of last season. They did fine with what they got...I just wish it would've given us an immediate return instead of the season after.

 

CJ Stroud likely OK'd the acquisitions of both Mixon and Diggs. They are choosing to go with acquiring talent route and ignoring the chemistry/locker room component. Things may start off ok, but those guys could become a problem in the blink of an eye.

 

It will be interesting to watch them in the coming years 

 

 

[Buffalo Junction]

14 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Great, let's see how Brady does.  

 

Again, the point is that I'm not sure we need Allen to do that when his skillset doesn't match that directly.  

 

 

I think he needs to do just enough of it to open the intermediate and deep stuff. At the very least the running game needs to force teams out of those two high defensive shells. 

[LABILLBACKER]

4 minutes ago, turbo044 said:

Yep - that was me I think.  I believe trading up to 5/6 cost too much,  so I think Beane Monitors Thomas II and if he falls to the late teens, he tries to trade #28 and a 2025 2nd to move up and grab him.  If Thomas II goes earlier than 15, he does something like this mock draft I just did.

#28 McConkey

Trade #60, #133 and #160 to PHI for #50

#50 Legette (note: Coleman and Polk arestill available too if Beane prefers either).  Perhaps, if it played out this way, Beane wouldn't trade up and just wait to see who last to #60

I could live with McConkey and Legette, but deep down I'm still hoping Thomas falls to the late teens so we can make a move.

[BeastMaster]

7 minutes ago, turbo044 said:

Yep - that was me I think.  I believe trading up to 5/6 cost too much,  so I think Beane Monitors Thomas II and if he falls to the late teens, he tries to trade #28 and a 2025 2nd to move up and grab him.  If Thomas II goes earlier than 15, he does something like this mock draft I just did.

#28 McConkey

Trade #60, #133 and #160 to PHI for #50

#50 Legette (note: Coleman and Polk arestill available too if Beane prefers either).  Perhaps, if it played out this way, Beane wouldn't trade up and just wait to see who last to #60

This is the best move for the roster moving forward IMO

 

They shouldn't move multiple high round picks to grab a WR in the first round in a WR rich class.

 

If you wanna move up in round two because there is still someone you considered worthy of the pick you wanna go up to in order to draft them, then that is much more affordable and doesn't take much away for next season when you now will have at least three picks in the first two rounds.

 

 

[turbo044]

5 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I could live with McConkey and Legette, but deep down I'm still hoping Thomas falls to the late teens so we can make a move.

In the mock I did, Thomas actually fell to #28.  It would be a dream, but I think not realistic, so I didn't choose him.

[Warcodered]

38 minutes ago, Returntoglory said:

This video says it all, as far as I'm concerned.

https://youtu.be/JdyG_pPfSIU?si=sIzIch0Q1wSJVqt-

 

What's really annoying is on that first play Allen is looking to get it to Diggs forever and has to move off since he's not open, when he finally just has to get rid of it he's on Gabe and Diggs suddenly pops open, it's just salt in the wound of the play.

34 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Crazy with the target share
 

Allen without Diggs 3-1 against the Dolphins, probably 4-0 if Clay caught that damn ball.

[WotAGuy]

If this has been posted I’ll delete it. Interesting article and it “links” a Diggs tweet regarding Josh to the trade. 
 

https://sports.yahoo.com/stefon-diggs-trade-texans-bills-winners-and-losers-josh-allen-cj-stroud-afc-defensive-backs-and-more-204550045.html

[BullBuchanan]

3 hours ago, jjmac said:

We will not see Diggs in a gold jacket in Canton, Ohio. 

If Reed didn't play in 4 Super Bowls, he wouldn't have one either. He never even had back to back 1000 yard seasons, only had 4 ever and only hit 10 TDs once in his career. if he played today, he might not be a top 30 player. Meanwhile Diggs has 6 consecutive 1k seasons, 2 seasons of 10+ TDs in 7 fewer seasons.

Reed is near the top of the most overrated players of all time.

[turbo044]

Just now, BeastMaster said:

This is the best move for the roster moving forward IMO

 

They shouldn't move multiple high round picks to grab a WR in the first round in a WR rich class.

 

If you wanna move up in round two because there is still someone you considered worthy of the pick you wanna go up to in order to draft them, then that is much more affordable and doesn't take much away for next season when you now will have at least three picks in the first two rounds.

 

 

Agreed, especially considering that some of the 2024 mid 2nd round WR's would possibly be 1st round WR's in a normal year.  WR position is stacked as is DL, both very good for us.  Beane should get some steals in rounds 4/5/6, even 7 where he currently has 8 picks

[PBF81]

44 minutes ago, Avisan said:

I didn't say it was easy.  It's never easy.  It's still quite possible.  We will almost certainly make the playoffs again, and once you're in, anything can happen.  Allen is a good enough QB and McDermott is a good enough coach that as long as a few players step up to make a big play or two in the postseason we can plausibly go the distance.

 

Diggs is a very good player, but he didn't ever step up in the postseason so I have no real concerns regarding our postseason chances.  I don't think any of our roster losses materially impact our overall chances.

 

Anything's possible.  Carolina could win the Super Bowl, it's possible.  You cavalierly laid it out as if it's quite likely.  It's not, not with this coach and roster given what we've seen to date over seven seasons.  Could it happen?  Sure, but it'd be entirely anomalous.  There's no logical basis for it happening.  The only people thinking otherwise are a subset of active posters here.  All I'm doing is discussing our strengths and weaknesses in light of expectations posed by some.  

 

The question is what's likely based upon the evidence that we have before us, which includes trends, patterns, current roster contrasted with past rosters and performance thereunder.  It's a somewhat complex analysis, not a Twitter sized assessment.  

 

This has been pointed out scores of times here, but absolutely no one but Allen has consistently stepped up in the playoffs and even he's had his gaps.  No one.  I've repeatedly asked people challenging this to name the players, particularly on D, that have consistently stepped up during the playoffs.  There are none.  This is particularly true of McD's vaunted top defenses, which everyone that's so optimistic is relying upon for this success as laid out.  In the playoffs our top-ranked D has played more like the 25th ranked D and among the worst defense in the playoffs generally speaking.  We're statistically at the bottom of defensive playoff performance over the past four seasons in that regard.  Holding teams led by Mac Jones and Rudolph Mason down in points, at home, in a rabid playoff environment shouldn't fall under the impressive category from a team perspective.  It's expected.  Back in the '90s we went to the home playoff games knowing that we were going to win.  It wasn't even a thought that we'd lose.  Levy took us to the AFC CG in his second season, with Kelly at QB, then to the AFC CG in five of his first seven seasons, and to the SB in four.  ... with Kelly and defenses ranked 3rd, 5th, 6th, 14th, and 19th.  Not 1st or 2nd even.  But we had players step up come playoff time.  

 

You simply cannot go into the postseason without some of your players, even backups simply having as string of well-timed great games at least, posting impact play.  The teams that advance have those players.  Others here have said this repeatedly as well.  The teams that win Super Bowls absolutely have them.  We don't have them, and now at least everyone's realized it with Diggs, but it's no different elsewhere.  And who on our roster right now is that player among skill positions?  What, Shakir?  Samuel?  Cook?  Kincaid?  It's all on Allen.  And now, seemingly, the narrative is that we're taking away his deep-game in favor of what he doesn't do best, namely the short game.  We're essentially asking him to become a game-manager.  That's ridiculous.  

 

So why on earth is all of a sudden the sixth or seventh time going to be the charm for the D, and particularly after we just lost key players in our secondary.  There is no logical reason.  It could happen, sure.  Or with Allen out of his element.  

 

It's funny, when I used to point out that Diggs was inconsistent in the playoffs, and typically failed to step up in the playoffs while he was on the team, I was routinely slammed.  It didn't matter, he was drawing coverage, etc. I was lectured.  Now that he's gone that's the going narrative, that he sucked in the playoffs.   LOL  Honestly, ... 

 

Is it really that difficult to separate ourselves from our fan status to see reality.  On top of that, despite Diggs having essentially provided far beyond what any WR to date has provided on McD's team, Bills Mafia slams and hammers him.  OK, so it wasn't on the best of terms, but he played his heart out here.  

 

We'll see how this season plays out.  As I always comment, there's absolutely nothing that's going to change because any of us say or don't say something here.  We're stuck with the hand that's dealt us as fans.  But it's frustrating to see the team being managed with underwhelming results come playoff time, and now Allen on the cusp of being shoe-horned into a role that is his weakness with his use more aligned with how Baltimore uses Jackson.  Apparently all that talk when we drafted him of his big arm and strongest arm in the NFL isn't going to be put to use or matter much.  That makes little sense and it shouldn't make any sense to anyone.  

 

 

Edited April 4 by PBF81

[Fan in Chicago]

56 minutes ago, DC Tom said:

How does this thread have 120 pages without someone asking me to call someone else an idiot?  

Well hello there. You have been missed around these parts. 

There is lot of new fodder for you. 

[LABILLBACKER]

5 minutes ago, turbo044 said:

In the mock I did, Thomas actually fell to #28.  It would be a dream, but I think not realistic, so I didn't choose him.

Dude if Brian Thomas makes it anywhere in the early 20's we're getting him. Guarantee it!

[turbo044]

1 minute ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Dude if Brian Thomas makes it anywhere in the early 20's we're getting him. Guarantee it!

It takes two to make a trade, but I would hope so

[nucci]

22 minutes ago, zow2 said:

Some of the panic stricken TV analysts on this mornings shows were pretty funny.  As if Diggs leaving the team is the single thing that is going to cause this season to be terrible.  The Bills will be fine.  It can never be proven but i suspect the team's record in 2024 would be the same whether Diggs was on the team or not.  The ball will be distributed to other guys and they WILL make plays.

Pretty amazing that football people don't get this. Kincaid, Cook and Samuel will get plenty of targets

[boyst]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

1929 yds, but what's 71 yds between friends?  

 

But let's look at it a bit differently.  Dorsey was fired after the Bills fell to 5-5 vs the Broncos.  They then went on a 7-1 streak with 1 overtime loss to the Eagles.

 

During that stretch of the season, which featured gameplans and play calling from the same OC we will have next year, Diggs and Davis together contributed a total of 627 yds, plus 73 yds in 2 playoff games.  Diggs contributed 1 TD, Davis contributed 2 - including playoffs.

 

Elsewhere, you have been beating the drum loud and repetitively about how Diggs fell off in the 2nd half of the season, comparing him to all sorts of lower tier WR we could have signed for much less.

Given that, it's really something to turn coat and gloom-and-doom because the Bills have moved on from two guys who contributed 3 TDs (including in 2 playoff games) and 627 yds over a 7-1 streak.

 

My position all along has been that the whole season counts when assessing a guy's contributions, but C'Mon Man, don't act like Diggs is Chopped Liver in one thread and then tear your hair and smear ashes about after he's traded.

 

It's a valid point that Beane, McDermott, and Joe Brady may have looked at that 7-1 win streak under Brady as OC and said "we can do without 627 yds and 3 TDs contribution".

i remember watching people cover film and going after Davis to see whats going on and the whole time i would notice only single coverage on Diggs with a floating safety over the top pretty much ignoring him half the time.

[BeastMaster]

5 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Dude if Brian Thomas makes it anywhere in the early 20's we're getting him. Guarantee it!

Brian Thomas has huge bust potential. Doesn't seem to have good hands, doesn't display toughness, and hasn't shown the ability to run good routes either

 

I get that he's big and fast, but the tape doesn't lie. He either ran by people and was wide open, or he caught a screen pass and made a play. It certainly didn't hurt having Nabers on the other side with Daniels as the QB either 

 

He is a project that might not ever realize his potential. It's not what this team needs

Edited April 4 by BeastMaster

[stevewin]

25 minutes ago, zow2 said:

Some of the panic stricken TV analysts on this mornings shows were pretty funny.  As if Diggs leaving the team is the single thing that is going to cause this season to be terrible.  The Bills will be fine.  It can never be proven but i suspect the team's record in 2024 would be the same whether Diggs was on the team or not.  The ball will be distributed to other guys and they WILL make plays.

Had to stop watching after I heard the "Josh Allen's window is now closed" hot hot take for the 10th time

[PBF81]

13 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

I think he needs to do just enough of it to open the intermediate and deep stuff. At the very least the running game needs to force teams out of those two high defensive shells. 

 

That's not playing to his strength however.  

 

That's fine, but are we really getting what Allen's capable of by forcing him into that game-managing role?   Is that wise.  

 

As to our running game, on 3rd-downs it's pretty much Allen.  Cook doesn't get the ball on 3rd-downs.  Four times all of last season for Cook, once every four games on average.  

 

Allen had 43 3rd-down carries, Murray 20, averaging 2.0, and Harris 7.  Allen had more than the rest of the team combined.  Without Allen our running game is below average.  Without Allen's rushing TD production we'd have ranked tied for DFL.  

 

As to those "two high defensive shells," do you see that happening with the current cadre of WRs that we have, namely a lot of deep coverage?  Few do.  Unless Shakir as a 5th round pick and no longer benefitting off of coverage directed to other WRs given that he's our best WR at the moment, steps up, that's not likely to be the case often.  For as shrewd as everyone seems to think that McD is overall, with emphasis offensively here, without a reliable deep threat(s), our running game is going to be pressured more than it ever has.  

 

 

[turbo044]

4 minutes ago, nucci said:

Pretty amazing that football people don't get this. Kincaid, Cook and Samuel will get plenty of targets

Shakir too

[SoonerBillsFan]

53 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Crazy with the target share
 

One produced,one didn't.   I said repeatedly, and got bashed for it, Diggs quit halfway through the season.  I still stand by what I saw.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Remember the guy who tormented us for two decades?

 

Yeah, that Bill Belichick. Remember what that guy used to do with old talent?

 

Yeah, sent them packing.

 

I'll never complain about my team behaving in that way, it's good football business

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

6 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:

Brian Thomas has huge bust potential. Doesn't seem to have good hands, doesn't display toughness, and hasn't shown the ability to run good routes either

 

I get that he's big and fast, but the tape doesn't lie. He either ran by people and was wide open, or he caught a screen pass and made a play. It certainly didn't hurt having Nabers on the other side with Daniels as the QB either 

 

He is a project that might not ever realize his potential. It's not what this team needs

So who do you want and why?

[PBF81]

8 minutes ago, nucci said:

Pretty amazing that football people don't get this. Kincaid, Cook and Samuel will get plenty of targets

 

Well, the coverage will be tighter on them, so it remains to be seen how they respond when covered more tightly.  

 

 

[Beck Water]

6 minutes ago, boyst said:

i remember watching people cover film and going after Davis to see whats going on and the whole time i would notice only single coverage on Diggs with a floating safety over the top pretty much ignoring him half the time.

 

This past season, Diggs was NOT getting open against physical man coverage by top CBs like Sneed.  It was notable.  Give him Kader Kohou and he'd eat him for brunch, of course.

 

In previous seasons, IIRC I read that the Bills were one of the bottom teams for % man because they ate it alive.  They didn't even see that much man 2022 IIRC  - McKenzie could eat man.  I believe I saw this year the Bills faced one of the highest % man coverage. 

Why?  Because they couldn't exploit it.

 

 

[nucci]

5 minutes ago, turbo044 said:

Shakir too

right, forgot him

[One Buffalo]

 

Good point.  And with the potentially high 2nd round pick as well, the deal looks pretty good from a future (beyond 2024) perspective. 

[nucci]

4 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, the coverage will be tighter on them, so it remains to be seen how they respond when covered more tightly.  

 

 

why...teams will still play zone and man to man against us ....players will be single covered. They'll get open.

[BeastMaster]

Just now, LABILLBACKER said:

So who do you want and why?

I like Legette. He reminds me of AJ Brown...just a physical guy that can run and catch. He's big and fast enough with the physicality to win contested catches.

 

I also like Coleman, although I'm not sure he's quite fast enough to be a number one.

 

My preference is to get two guys in the first two rounds. I would be fine standing pat and drafting someone at 28 with a trade back for Legette, or Coleman, or Mitchell, or Worthy. 

 

I am not opposed to drafting Thomas, but I'm not moving up for him, and I'm getting another guy that is more NFL ready so he isn't forced into trying to be the guy right away.

 

[Avisan]

7 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Long rant

 

Buddy, Mario Manningham and David Three both did basically nothing with their careers outside of improbable Superbowl catches for the Giants.  Diggs was a middling-to-poor postseason player for us that ALSO did not have any big step-up moments.  That is eminently replaceable in the postseason, and there is no reason why a different player would be any less likely to step up than he was.

 

Even the very best teams have a pretty poor probability of winning the playoffs in any given year.  Let's do a math exercise.

 

Team X is a dominant roster with great coaching.  They catch a first round bye.  They have an 80% chance to win the divisional roound.  They have a 75% chance to win the AFCCG.  70% to beat the best team in the NFC.  They are THAT good.

 

What are the odds that they win the Superbowl in this hypothetical?

 

42%.  This utterly dominant team that wins, at worst, 7 out of every 10 games they play against the best the league can offer, would win the Superbowl less than half the time.

 

I would give the Bills a ~10% chance this season, same as about any other season.  75% chance to win the wildcard round with 50/50s the rest of the way, which I feel like lines up pretty well with the past results we've seen.

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, One Buffalo said:

 

Good point.  And with the potentially high 2nd round pick as well, the deal looks pretty good from a future (beyond 2024) perspective. 

Good point? You'd have the player on the roster.

That's like saying you can save $300 you planned on spending on groceries by lighting $250 on fire and then just not eating. The math only works if you ignore what the values represent.

[uticaclub]

10 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Remember the guy who tormented us for two decades?

 

Yeah, that Bill Belichick. Remember what that guy used to do with old talent?

 

Yeah, sent them packing.

 

I'll never complain about my team behaving in that way, it's good football business

 

 

He did, but never but himself in a position with bad contracts like Diggs & Miller

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, nucci said:

why...teams will still play zone and man to man against us ....players will be single covered. They'll get open.

 

We'll see to what extent that happens and whether or not it makes up for half of Allen's numbers on the receiving end.  It'll be great if it's that simple.  Shakir's the one we should have our eyes on.  Samuel's a known quantity.  

 

 

[Ga boy]

32 minutes ago, turbo044 said:

Yep - that was me I think.  I believe trading up to 5/6 cost too much,  so I think Beane Monitors Thomas II and if he falls to the late teens, he tries to trade #28 and a 2025 2nd to move up and grab him.  If Thomas II goes earlier than 15, he does something like this mock draft I just did.

#28 McConkey

Trade #60, #133 and #160 to PHI for #50

#50 Legette (note: Coleman and Polk arestill available too if Beane prefers either).  Perhaps, if it played out this way, Beane wouldn't trade up and just wait to see who last to #60

I think our best chance is 11 or 12 with Denver and Minny to get one of the top 3.  The teams in the teens either need WRs or wouldn’t want to help us.  In the 20s, Philly or Minny might be potential trade partners.  Also, we can move back and get Legette and Coleman.  Both of them, along with Kincaid, Shakir, Samuel and Shorter, would make our offense scary.

[nucci]

Just now, PBF81 said:

 

We'll see to what extent that happens and whether or not it makes up for half of Allen's numbers on the receiving end.  It'll be great if it's that simple.  Shakir's the one we should have our eyes on.  Samuel's a known quantity.  

 

 

I know what you're saying but it is that simple. Football is not a complicated game.  You run patterns and get open. We'll be fine

[SoonerBillsFan]

12 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Remember the guy who tormented us for two decades?

 

Yeah, that Bill Belichick. Remember what that guy used to do with old talent?

 

Yeah, sent them packing.

 

I'll never complain about my team behaving in that way, it's good football business

 

 

Beane said at the beginning of this offseason he is learning.  So far he is showing it.

[Motorin']

Just now, BullBuchanan said:

Good point? You'd have the player on the roster.

That's like saying you can save $300 you planned on spending on groceries by lighting $250 on fire and then just not eating. The math only works if you ignore what the values represent.

 

And what if the $300 worth of groceries are already half rotten, and you probably won't even get $25 worth of food out of it? Then you saved $25. 

 

Except the Bills save 25 million next year they can spend else where. And the year after, and the year after.

[DJB]

 

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Good point? You'd have the player on the roster.

That's like saying you can save $300 you planned on spending on groceries by lighting $250 on fire and then just not eating. The math only works if you ignore what the values represent.

Only if Diggs has more value here than not, which clearly Beane doesn’t necessarily agree with you on.