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Bills chasm between Regular Season Success and Playoff Failure-Are there Football Strategy Problems?


Chaos

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7 hours ago, Chaos said:

I am hopeful this thread avoids discussions of specific coaching or players.  

Here are some facts that are not in dispute:
 

  1. The Bills have had more regular season success than virtually any other NFL team in the last 5 years.
  2. The Bills have not translated the regular season succes into deep playoff runs

 

Here is a commonly held opinions:

  1. Playoff football is different than regular season football.  (I am personally on the fence on whether or not this is true)

 

For purposes of this thread discussion I would like to stipulate that Playoff Football IS different than regular season football.  Here is the question:

 

Are their any significant football strategic changes that could be made, that would result in playing better "Playoff Football"? If so what are those changes?
 

Alternatively, its fine to respond "flawed premise, the gap between playoff success and regular season success is because the Bills are less talented, or unluckier than the teams that win the Super Bowl"

 

 

KC has been better in regular season.

 

2019 AFC WC, JA 17 first loss to Houston in OT.

2020 AFC con final loss at KC

2021 AFC Div loss at KC in 13 sec/OT

2022 AFC div loss to Cincinnati ( the team seemed gassed in this game givrn what happened with Hamlin)

2023 AFC div loss to KC on missed FG late in game


 

All the eliminations came down to a handful of plays except for the Cincy loss.  It’s hard to say was it a play call the coaches made thst was wrong or did a player on the field not do something they should have.

 

you might have a question if they didn’t show up in the playoffs but that’s not the case.

 

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2 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

BADOL, I totally get where you're coming from and some of it I agree with.  In a perfect world I'd like Josh to be a little more cerebral.  I'd like Josh to take a page out of Tom or Peyton and study his profession a little more in the offseason. But what makes Allen elite are the things some of us want to change about him. Don't run as much, stay in the pocket,  check it down,....etc..etc.  That's not who he is or probably who he should be. Brady recognized this and stopped that low positive nonsense and let Josh be what's in his DNA.  

 

We don't know the true outcome of the 2nd & 9 play. Maybe Diggs drips the ball?  Maybe Diggs gets the 1st down but we get stopped 3 plays later?  Maybe the oline hold for a fraction of a second longer and Allen connects with a wide open Shakir.  Life is littered with " what ifs".....but is there room for Josh to improve?.....absolutely!

 

 

Yeah I don't think it needs to be a perfect world for Allen to get back to where he was as a pocket passer in 2020.   He hasn't really been close to that age 24 seasons as a passer.  

 

I think it just *feels* like he has to run the ball 9.2 times per game(as he did under Brady) because of a combination of lack of offensive weapons and a lack of focus by him on the finer points of his own game.  

 

If he gets back to that 105 PR 37 TD pass 10 INT QB from the 92 QB 29 TD pass 18 INT QB(that he's become) then he can operate from the pocket and win running the ball 4-6 times per game(which is what they have been wanting).   That's not far off from Mahomes rush attempts(4.7 this past season).    

 

I totally get why they had to pull the emergency lever on this season and turn him into young Cam Newton again...........I just don't buy that Allen doesn't have it in him to evolve.   That feeling is a coping mechanism to deal with his stalled career, IMO.

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8 hours ago, Chaos said:

I am hopeful this thread avoids discussions of specific coaching or players.  

Here are some facts that are not in dispute:
 

  1. The Bills have had more regular season success than virtually any other NFL team in the last 5 years.
  2. The Bills have not translated the regular season succes into deep playoff runs

 

Here is a commonly held opinions:

  1. Playoff football is different than regular season football.  (I am personally on the fence on whether or not this is true)

 

For purposes of this thread discussion I would like to stipulate that Playoff Football IS different than regular season football.  Here is the question:

 

Are their any significant football strategic changes that could be made, that would result in playing better "Playoff Football"? If so what are those changes?
 

Alternatively, its fine to respond "flawed premise, the gap between playoff success and regular season success is because the Bills are less talented, or unluckier than the teams that win the Super Bowl"

 

 

 

In context, it's important to ask why we lost in the playoffs.  

 

We've only managed to beat low-end bottom seeds in the playoffs, and typically under quite favorable circumstances.  Why?  

 

Beating Mac Jones, Skylar Thompson, Mason Rudolph, a washed-up Philip Rivers in his last game ever, and the Ravens with Jackson and Huntley splitting the game is hardly impressive under any circumstances.  

 

Those teams were seeded 6th, 7th, 7th, 7th, and 5th respectively.  

 

 

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7 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

In context, it's important to ask why we lost in the playoffs.  

This is the point of thread.  It juxtaposes this question against the fact that the Bills have been successful in the regular season. 

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3 minutes ago, djp14150 said:

KC has been better in regular season.

 

2019 AFC WC, JA 17 first loss to Houston in OT.

2020 AFC con final loss at KC

2021 AFC Div loss at KC in 13 sec/OT

2022 AFC div loss to Cincinnati ( the team seemed gassed in this game givrn what happened with Hamlin)

2023 AFC div loss to KC on missed FG late in game


 

All the eliminations came down to a handful of plays except for the Cincy loss.  It’s hard to say was it a play call the coaches made thst was wrong or did a player on the field not do something they should have.

 

you might have a question if they didn’t show up in the playoffs but that’s not the case.

 


When the score is close that’s an easy way to look at and I believe that is the way McD and Beane look at. Is it the right way to look at it though? Despite coming down to a couple plays it’s pretty safe to say the D has played like dog ***** in most of those games. So instead of trying to make one or two plays more maybe they should be thinking how can to get better from start to finish on D. What makes this worse is they have heavily invested in D with top draft picks and pricey free agents. Belichick was willing to change his system numerous times over the years to get the best out of his players , is McD willing to do that? Is McD smart enough to do that?  Teams know what McD is throwing down and good QBs have their way with him in big games.  Every QB has his way with him in the final two minutes. 😂 

 

To me the Bills are just treading water. McD gets the players he wants for D and if they don’t work they go out and use more money looking for guys that can. Last off-season  the biggest issue was at the WR position, we have one of the best QBs on the planet and they bring in Shitfield and Sharty. Bills D got more DLs. Poona, Floyd and then Joseph. Add in they traded for a CB when it was needed. Anything for the defensive guru. 

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It comes down matchup metrics.  When it matters.  Buffalo has failed to match up and excel in this area in the playoffs compared to KC going back to 2017.

 

Buffalo D metrics in the regular season are above average.  But in the post season Buffalo's D averages 23.4 points a game given up to its competion since 2017.

 

Buffalo O metrics in the regular season are also well above average.  But in the post season Buffalo's O only averages only 24.5 points per game since 2017.

 

You are not going to win many playoff games with that close of a points margin, scored vs allowed differential,  this stat alone exposes this teams flaw in games they have not won in the post season.  Their D as bad as it has been even with injuries has been good enough to keep them in games.  Its on Offense where this team fails in the post season.  It has glimpses of being elite but when compared to KC we are not even in the same league as Reid and McHomes.  NO AFC Championships, NO Super Bowls.

 

KC's Metrics D since 2017   23.13 PPG allowed

KC's Metrics O since 2017   30.13 PPG scored  including all superbowls played.

 

KC in the playoffs since 2017 are 13-2

Buffalo in the playoffs since 2017 are 5-6

 

Until Buffalo can get more fire power surrounding JA17 this trend will continue.  Being just average at scoring points against quality competition in the playoffs is what will lose a you games in the post season.  Buffalo's record of 5-6 proves this.  They are a sub .500 playoff team since 2017 and the Beane and McD era.

 

KC > Buff until this is fixed.

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2 hours ago, Chaos said:

 

 


I think there may be a difference between "aggressiveness" and "imposing your will"/"playing your game".   

I am not sure there is specifically a problem with play calling aggressiveness.  But it seems like in the playoff games we lost to the Chiefs and Bengals, and Texans, the Bills are typically responding to the other teams rather than dictating the pace of place. And we seem to keep ending up one possession behind with that strategy.   I don't if that is because the Bengals , Chiefs and Texans had better talent than the Bills or if this is what the Bills are consiously trying to do. 

I think it is what many of us have seen and talked about, giving free release off the line of scrimmage to receivers, playing contain vs getting in the opponents face at the line, , that is how we play, even in crunch time, and it’s by design, and it needs to change at times throughout the game, especially in the fourth quarter when we are tied or up by three,  etc etc, again jmo.

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1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

If he gets back to that 105 PR 37 TD pass 10 INT QB from the 2020 season 

 

This is who he was in the Chiefs playoff game.

 

He was taking the underneath passes most of the game and took his shots when the defense gave him an opportunity.

 

He was 2020 Josh.

 

.

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12 minutes ago, Toyo321 said:

It comes down matchup metrics.  When it matters.  Buffalo has failed to match up and excel in this area in the playoffs compared to KC going back to 2017.

 

Buffalo D metrics in the regular season are above average.  But in the post season Buffalo's D averages 23.4 points a game given up to its competion since 2017.

 

Buffalo O metrics in the regular season are also well above average.  But in the post season Buffalo's O only averages only 24.5 points per game since 2017.

 

You are not going to win many playoff games with that close of a points margin, scored vs allowed differential,  this stat alone exposes this teams flaw in games they have not won in the post season.  Their D as bad as it has been even with injuries has been good enough to keep them in games.  Its on Offense where this team fails in the post season.  It has glimpses of being elite but when compared to KC we are not even in the same league as Reid and McHomes.  NO AFC Championships, NO Super Bowls.

 

KC's Metrics D since 2017   23.13 PPG allowed

KC's Metrics O since 2017   30.13 PPG scored  including all superbowls played.

 

KC in the playoffs since 2017 are 13-2

Buffalo in the playoffs since 2017 are 5-6

 

Until Buffalo can get more fire power surrounding JA17 this trend will continue.  Being just average at scoring points against quality competition in the playoffs is what will lose a you games in the post season.  Buffalo's record of 5-6 proves this.  They are a sub .500 playoff team since 2017 and the Beane and McD era.

 

KC > Buff until this is fixed.

 

Fun fact: The Bills are second in playoff appearances since 2017 with 11.

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6 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

The difference might literally be as simple as Steve Spagnuolo. The guy is really good. Shut down the 2007 Patriots offense when he was with the Giants.

 

The Bills will never get to the Super Bowl if they are giving up 27+ points in every single divisional/conference championship game. It's too much to ask of the offense in consecutive weeks against the top four teams in the conference. 

This… for McDermott to be a great defensive guy, our defense folds every year, it’s time for them to draft outside the box. Because the guys there getting on the Dline get own in big games , even against backups!!!!

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One or two more plays must be made by the Bills in a big spot. It’s either a skill player or a play call that will put us over the hump. The windows wide open and my guess is this team will show the winning pedigree in the regular season in the next few seasons. No need to panic. The core is in place. The Miller signing has not paid dividends yet. Maybe it’s a big sack like his game changing play that put the Rams over the top that will be the difference. 

 

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7 hours ago, MJS said:

More regular season success than virtually every team EXCEPT Kansas City... And they are the ones that keep knocking the Bills out of the playoffs.

 

It's as simple as that. We are in the middle of a Chiefs dynasty and the Bills are really good, but not quite as good as them.

 

But they are close. The games are always close. They've shown they can hang with them. So, keep trying and one of these years they will.

We are the Joe Flacco Ravens who keep running into Brady. Its not some massive failure.

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2 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Chasm? Near misses hardly qualify as a chasm. 

Bills are among the top most successful regular season teams. 

The are the most disappointing playoff performers. 

There is no real room for a bigger gap.

Just now, FireChans said:

We are the Joe Flacco Ravens who keep running into Brady. Its not some massive failure.

The Joe Flacco Ravens, aside from one Super Bowl, actually were a failure as far as winning championships.  But the Bills have failed against the Texans, Bengals and Chiefs, so your point really isn't accurate. 

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1 minute ago, Chaos said:

Bills are among the top most successful regular season teams. 

The are the most disappointing playoff performers. 

There is no real room for a bigger gap.

The Ravens are far more disappointing in the playoffs, not sure where you got your “most disappointing” stat.

4 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Bills are among the top most successful regular season teams. 

The are the most disappointing playoff performers. 

There is no real room for a bigger gap.

The Joe Flacco Ravens, aside from one Super Bowl, actually were a failure as far as winning championships.  But the Bills have failed against the Texans, Bengals and Chiefs, so your point really isn't accurate. 

Aside from winning a championship, they are a failure because they didn’t win championships?

 

it’s time to start defining words here.

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1 hour ago, Chaos said:

This is the point of thread.  It juxtaposes this question against the fact that the Bills have been successful in the regular season. 

 

Well yeah, but in several instances the specifics have been obvious.  The general reasons in others are also obvious.  

 

We've been over them many many many times here over the past months.  

 

Some people simply refuse to acknowledge the obvious.  

 

Take "13 Seconds" for instance.  It's well known why we lost that, and likely the Super Bowl that season as well.  But simply because it hasn't officially been stated, many assume that there's some other reason.  It is what it is/was.  

 

 

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1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well yeah, but in several instances the specifics have been obvious.  The general reasons in others are also obvious.  

 

We've been over them many many many times here over the past months.  

 

Some people simply refuse to acknowledge the obvious.  

 

 

I am not sure what you mean to be obvious.  I think you mean "the problem is coaching, there is nothing that can be changed on the football field to solve the problem".  But I am not sure. 

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31 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Bills are among the top most successful regular season teams. 

The are the most disappointing playoff performers. 

There is no real room for a bigger gap.

The Joe Flacco Ravens, aside from one Super Bowl, actually were a failure as far as winning championships.  But the Bills have failed against the Texans, Bengals and Chiefs, so your point really isn't accurate. 


A better comp is Peyton Manning’s Colts IMO. But Fire Chans point is still valid. Bolls have been extremely successful over the last 4 seasons. 
 

They’ve been outdated in the postseason by the Chiefs, Chiefs, Bengals and Chiefs. We haven’t been losing to the  likes of the Colts, Ravens, Pats,  Dolphins or Steelers. 
 

And until proven otherwise I fear the Bengals far more than the Chiefs. We’ve yet to have a competitive game against the Bengals in 2.25 tries. 

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Just now, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

They’ve been outdated in the postseason by the Chiefs, Chiefs, Bengals and Chiefs. We haven’t been losing to the  likes of the Colts, Ravens, Pats,  Dolphins or Steelers. 

We lost to the Texans in the playoffs.  We made Deshaun Watson look so good, the stupid Browns paid him  a bazillion dollars. 

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25 minutes ago, Chaos said:

I am not sure what you mean to be obvious.  I think you mean "the problem is coaching, there is nothing that can be changed on the football field to solve the problem".  But I am not sure. 

 

Well, isn't "what happens on the football field" directly related to coaching?  

 

The answer to that is obvious.  Yet, there seems to be an illogical deliberate attempt to disconnect the two for purposes of discussion here, at TSW.  

 

Originally you said ... 

 

Quote

Are their any significant football strategic changes that could be made, that would result in playing better "Playoff Football"? If so what are those changes?

 

So let's take "13 Seconds."  

 

I'm not sure what else the offense courtesy of Allen & Davis could have done more than put up 422 Yards of offense and 36 points in regulation.  Right?  I'll take that every postseason game.  I mean 36 points is more than every other playoff team put up, with two exceptions, in 12 games out of 24 team scores this postseason.  That postseason it was more than everyone except us v. the Pats and KC in one game vs. the Steelers 20th ranked scoring D.  

 

So why'd we lose that game?  

 

Apart from the fact that our #1 ranked scoring D on the season allowed KC to post more points than it had in all but three regular season games, and against scoring defenses ranked 18th, 20th, and 26th, and only in the playoffs against the Steelers and their 20th ranked defense otherwise, isn't there another reason, not particularly related to on-the-field play, that was responsible?  

 

Seems so, but hey, what do I know.  

 

I also don't think that it's unfair to ask why in the playoffs in 2021 our #1 ranked D allowed over a TD more than the Chiefs had averaged all season; 

why in 2022 our 2nd ranked scoring D allowed more points to the Bengals than they had averaged all season, at home in Buffalo; 

or why our 4th ranked scoring D this season allowed the Chiefs over 5 points more than they had averaged all season, again, at home in Buffalo.  Two weeks ago even the overall stats were generally all but identical and where they weren't the favored us otherwise.  

 

It's nice that we can beat the hell out of teams that are bubble playoff teams to begin with, with even some of those games being much closer than they should have been.  

 

It's been different players every season to one extent or another.  Different OCs, and in one instance now a different DC.  

 

There's only been one constant.  

 

I get banned for mentioning it.  So I won't.  

 

 

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8 hours ago, DrBob806 said:

Yes, it's a factor. However, virtually every team has to battle the injury bug. The Ratbirds were probably the healthiest team of the 7 AFC teams, they couldn't get it done either.  

 

I just think the Bills are a step behind KC even when healthy. Funny thing is, I do think the Bills would beat the over rated 49ers today, that's what is so frustrating. 

 

 

Yes all teams battle the injury bug but not to the same extent.  It's one thing to play backups here and there but when you are down to 3rd and 4th string players playing multiple positions on one side of the ball that tilts the scales to the team not having to do that.  Beane thought he had good depth.  That depth was exhausted this year.   

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It really does come down to coaching experience and the relationship between the HC, OC and the QB.  But lets include fate too.

 

Andy Reid has the edge in playoff experience and the offensive know how, his OC and McHomes make the most of what cards they are dealt in every single game.

 

We do not.

 

When you look at what we did wrong this year, bad losses to NE, Jets, Broncos, even the Jags.  This team could have won home field advantage through out the playoffs.  That one extra week of time off at the end of the season this year would have meant the world to this team on D to try and get healthy and not having all the injuries that were substained in the WC round. 

 

It is fate.  Until we can stack the deck in favor of us,  with better players on offense especially at WR.  We will be second place to KC and Cinci every year trying to get to the SB unless we fix the talent on the WR depth chart.  

 

Another sore subject is we are bad at spending money on players that are always too old and past the ROI on money being paid out these players. 

 

Soley Beane's fault there.  How you change a GM's bad money habits are beyond me.   

 

We need a new Emoji Giff of Von Miller vomitting.  I would use that Emoji on every post.  I hated the signing 2 yrs ago and way more now.

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, MJS said:

More regular season success than virtually every team EXCEPT Kansas City... And they are the ones that keep knocking the Bills out of the playoffs.

 

It's as simple as that. We are in the middle of a Chiefs dynasty and the Bills are really good, but not quite as good as them.

 

But they are close. The games are always close. They've shown they can hang with them. So, keep trying and one of these years they will.

This is def all true but I’d argue we’re better on paper than them nowadays so this doesn’t really disprove op either

 

I do think if we had one starting caliber lb we win pretty easily in the playoffs this year although I do understand the no excuses mentality…the offense was very impressive vs kc, kc just pulled off some quick scores picking on Klein all the way down the field 

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24 minutes ago, jkeerie said:

Yes all teams battle the injury bug but not to the same extent.  It's one thing to play backups here and there but when you are down to 3rd and 4th string players playing multiple positions on one side of the ball that tilts the scales to the team not having to do that.  Beane thought he had good depth.  That depth was exhausted this year.   

In the game against the chiefs, we did not have Milano or his replacement Benard.  Douglass was actually as good or better than White.  Bills were quite healthy in their last game of the season. 

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10 minutes ago, Chaos said:

In the game against the chiefs, we did not have Milano or his replacement Benard.  Douglass was actually as good or better than White.  Bills were quite healthy in their last game of the season. 

Aj klein canceling a family vacation to start at lb is not quite healthy lol. Not to mention you left out benford and no rapp when down a bunch of linebackers is huge.  Dodson played quite injured also

no gabe also which I normally wouldn’t even mention but he has made big plays against the chiefs in the past 
 

We were down to Klein and the chiefs picked on him all night.  I’m all for the no excuses mentality…we had our chances to win…but I don’t think there’s any chance we lose that game with one of Milano/bernard healthy. 

Edited by Generic_Bills_Fan
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3 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Aj klein canceling a family vacation to start at lb is not quite healthy lol. Not to mention you left out benford and no rapp when down a bunch of linebackers is huge.  Dodson played quite injured also

you seem to be in denial.  The Bills were not 100% healthy.  They started every player on offense who started the beginning of the season and most every player, save Milano on defense (with Douglas equalling white).  This was better than the Cheifs situation, or virtually any  other playoff team. 

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14 minutes ago, Chaos said:

you seem to be in denial.  The Bills were not 100% healthy.  They started every player on offense who started the beginning of the season and most every player, save Milano on defense (with Douglas equally white).  This was better than the Cheifs situation, or virtually any  other playoff team. 

I mean idk how I’m the one in denial when your statement about the defense is 100% provably false lol the chiefs were in a much better injury position entering the game than Buffalo and it is not even debatable 

 

missing a starting corner(benford…I’m not counting white)  and a few linebackers and a safety that could function as an extra linebacker is a ton of holes to exploit.  It’s honestly kind of wild we kept the game close with aj klein seeing significant time.  Chiefs straight up victimized him.  The mostly healthy offense bailed them out with a big top discrepancy…chiefs probably would’ve scored 50+ otherwise 

Edited by Generic_Bills_Fan
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1 hour ago, Chaos said:

We lost to the Texans in the playoffs.  We made Deshaun Watson look so good, the stupid Browns paid him  a bazillion dollars. 

Deshaun Watson was filthy in Houston long before that Bills game. Tell me you don’t watch the rest of the NFL without telling me.

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To me the biggest difference is the Bills outside of Allen don't have that next level of play that the playoff teams have. 

 

Coaching is big part of it too. The way the Bills defense and offense plays works well in the regular season due to playing against mostly average teams. When they play the best teams, they don't do well. 

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8 hours ago, Bermuda Triangle said:

I agree in general, but regarding the fake punt, didn't the Chiefs fumble through the end zone on the ensuing possession?

Crap. You’re right. I misremembered that. I thought they got a TD there. 

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1 hour ago, Chaos said:

you seem to be in denial.  The Bills were not 100% healthy.  They started every player on offense who started the beginning of the season and most every player, save Milano on defense (with Douglas equalling white).  This was better than the Cheifs situation, or virtually any  other playoff team. 

Bernard and Benford also didn’t play. This is just bad trolling.

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The Bills are right there.  No need to overanalyze, the Bills last two losses to the chiefs were coin flip games, could have gone either way.

 

Just keep surrounding Josh with talent and the Bills will eventually beat them and be on par with them.

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How can it not come down to coaching. McDermott is one of the best regular season coaches, but he doesn't make the difference in the playoffs, and might not ever be that coach. 

 

Time will tell, but it feels like we have Marty Schottenheimer

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3 hours ago, Jrb1979 said:

To me the biggest difference is the Bills outside of Allen don't have that next level of play that the playoff teams have. 

 

Coaching is big part of it too. The way the Bills defense and offense plays works well in the regular season due to playing against mostly average teams. When they play the best teams, they don't do well. 

Bills have to play more man defense in the playoffs I think…the playoff officiating is a joke and you can do pretty much whatever you want in the secondary lol we just don’t take advantage as well 

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The Chiefs have that Patriot like quality under Brady that when the games get close near the end they figure out ways to pull them out and be on the right side of them regularly, especially in the playoffs.

 

It's kind of sickening.

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2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

The Chiefs have that Patriot like quality under Brady that when the games get close near the end they figure out ways to pull them out and be on the right side of them regularly, especially in the playoffs.

 

It's kind of sickening.


Like the Bills right?

 

Annoying year … third seed Chiefs rested their players Week 18 whilst the Billa are battling to get in to the playoffs… 

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