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Bills chasm between Regular Season Success and Playoff Failure-Are there Football Strategy Problems?


Chaos

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7 hours ago, Chaos said:

I am hopeful this thread avoids discussions of specific coaching or players.  

Here are some facts that are not in dispute:
 

  1. The Bills have had more regular season success than virtually any other NFL team in the last 5 years.
  2. The Bills have not translated the regular season succes into deep playoff runs

 

Here is a commonly held opinions:

  1. Playoff football is different than regular season football.  (I am personally on the fence on whether or not this is true)

 

For purposes of this thread discussion I would like to stipulate that Playoff Football IS different than regular season football.  Here is the question:

 

Are their any significant football strategic changes that could be made, that would result in playing better "Playoff Football"? If so what are those changes?
 

Alternatively, its fine to respond "flawed premise, the gap between playoff success and regular season success is because the Bills are less talented, or unluckier than the teams that win the Super Bowl"

 

 

KC has been better in regular season.

 

2019 AFC WC, JA 17 first loss to Houston in OT.

2020 AFC con final loss at KC

2021 AFC Div loss at KC in 13 sec/OT

2022 AFC div loss to Cincinnati ( the team seemed gassed in this game givrn what happened with Hamlin)

2023 AFC div loss to KC on missed FG late in game


 

All the eliminations came down to a handful of plays except for the Cincy loss.  It’s hard to say was it a play call the coaches made thst was wrong or did a player on the field not do something they should have.

 

you might have a question if they didn’t show up in the playoffs but that’s not the case.

 

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2 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

BADOL, I totally get where you're coming from and some of it I agree with.  In a perfect world I'd like Josh to be a little more cerebral.  I'd like Josh to take a page out of Tom or Peyton and study his profession a little more in the offseason. But what makes Allen elite are the things some of us want to change about him. Don't run as much, stay in the pocket,  check it down,....etc..etc.  That's not who he is or probably who he should be. Brady recognized this and stopped that low positive nonsense and let Josh be what's in his DNA.  

 

We don't know the true outcome of the 2nd & 9 play. Maybe Diggs drips the ball?  Maybe Diggs gets the 1st down but we get stopped 3 plays later?  Maybe the oline hold for a fraction of a second longer and Allen connects with a wide open Shakir.  Life is littered with " what ifs".....but is there room for Josh to improve?.....absolutely!

 

 

Yeah I don't think it needs to be a perfect world for Allen to get back to where he was as a pocket passer in 2020.   He hasn't really been close to that age 24 seasons as a passer.  

 

I think it just *feels* like he has to run the ball 9.2 times per game(as he did under Brady) because of a combination of lack of offensive weapons and a lack of focus by him on the finer points of his own game.  

 

If he gets back to that 105 PR 37 TD pass 10 INT QB from the 92 QB 29 TD pass 18 INT QB(that he's become) then he can operate from the pocket and win running the ball 4-6 times per game(which is what they have been wanting).   That's not far off from Mahomes rush attempts(4.7 this past season).    

 

I totally get why they had to pull the emergency lever on this season and turn him into young Cam Newton again...........I just don't buy that Allen doesn't have it in him to evolve.   That feeling is a coping mechanism to deal with his stalled career, IMO.

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8 hours ago, Chaos said:

I am hopeful this thread avoids discussions of specific coaching or players.  

Here are some facts that are not in dispute:
 

  1. The Bills have had more regular season success than virtually any other NFL team in the last 5 years.
  2. The Bills have not translated the regular season succes into deep playoff runs

 

Here is a commonly held opinions:

  1. Playoff football is different than regular season football.  (I am personally on the fence on whether or not this is true)

 

For purposes of this thread discussion I would like to stipulate that Playoff Football IS different than regular season football.  Here is the question:

 

Are their any significant football strategic changes that could be made, that would result in playing better "Playoff Football"? If so what are those changes?
 

Alternatively, its fine to respond "flawed premise, the gap between playoff success and regular season success is because the Bills are less talented, or unluckier than the teams that win the Super Bowl"

 

 

 

In context, it's important to ask why we lost in the playoffs.  

 

We've only managed to beat low-end bottom seeds in the playoffs, and typically under quite favorable circumstances.  Why?  

 

Beating Mac Jones, Skylar Thompson, Mason Rudolph, a washed-up Philip Rivers in his last game ever, and the Ravens with Jackson and Huntley splitting the game is hardly impressive under any circumstances.  

 

Those teams were seeded 6th, 7th, 7th, 7th, and 5th respectively.  

 

 

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7 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

In context, it's important to ask why we lost in the playoffs.  

This is the point of thread.  It juxtaposes this question against the fact that the Bills have been successful in the regular season. 

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3 minutes ago, djp14150 said:

KC has been better in regular season.

 

2019 AFC WC, JA 17 first loss to Houston in OT.

2020 AFC con final loss at KC

2021 AFC Div loss at KC in 13 sec/OT

2022 AFC div loss to Cincinnati ( the team seemed gassed in this game givrn what happened with Hamlin)

2023 AFC div loss to KC on missed FG late in game


 

All the eliminations came down to a handful of plays except for the Cincy loss.  It’s hard to say was it a play call the coaches made thst was wrong or did a player on the field not do something they should have.

 

you might have a question if they didn’t show up in the playoffs but that’s not the case.

 


When the score is close that’s an easy way to look at and I believe that is the way McD and Beane look at. Is it the right way to look at it though? Despite coming down to a couple plays it’s pretty safe to say the D has played like dog ***** in most of those games. So instead of trying to make one or two plays more maybe they should be thinking how can to get better from start to finish on D. What makes this worse is they have heavily invested in D with top draft picks and pricey free agents. Belichick was willing to change his system numerous times over the years to get the best out of his players , is McD willing to do that? Is McD smart enough to do that?  Teams know what McD is throwing down and good QBs have their way with him in big games.  Every QB has his way with him in the final two minutes. 😂 

 

To me the Bills are just treading water. McD gets the players he wants for D and if they don’t work they go out and use more money looking for guys that can. Last off-season  the biggest issue was at the WR position, we have one of the best QBs on the planet and they bring in Shitfield and Sharty. Bills D got more DLs. Poona, Floyd and then Joseph. Add in they traded for a CB when it was needed. Anything for the defensive guru. 

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It comes down matchup metrics.  When it matters.  Buffalo has failed to match up and excel in this area in the playoffs compared to KC going back to 2017.

 

Buffalo D metrics in the regular season are above average.  But in the post season Buffalo's D averages 23.4 points a game given up to its competion since 2017.

 

Buffalo O metrics in the regular season are also well above average.  But in the post season Buffalo's O only averages only 24.5 points per game since 2017.

 

You are not going to win many playoff games with that close of a points margin, scored vs allowed differential,  this stat alone exposes this teams flaw in games they have not won in the post season.  Their D as bad as it has been even with injuries has been good enough to keep them in games.  Its on Offense where this team fails in the post season.  It has glimpses of being elite but when compared to KC we are not even in the same league as Reid and McHomes.  NO AFC Championships, NO Super Bowls.

 

KC's Metrics D since 2017   23.13 PPG allowed

KC's Metrics O since 2017   30.13 PPG scored  including all superbowls played.

 

KC in the playoffs since 2017 are 13-2

Buffalo in the playoffs since 2017 are 5-6

 

Until Buffalo can get more fire power surrounding JA17 this trend will continue.  Being just average at scoring points against quality competition in the playoffs is what will lose a you games in the post season.  Buffalo's record of 5-6 proves this.  They are a sub .500 playoff team since 2017 and the Beane and McD era.

 

KC > Buff until this is fixed.

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2 hours ago, Chaos said:

 

 


I think there may be a difference between "aggressiveness" and "imposing your will"/"playing your game".   

I am not sure there is specifically a problem with play calling aggressiveness.  But it seems like in the playoff games we lost to the Chiefs and Bengals, and Texans, the Bills are typically responding to the other teams rather than dictating the pace of place. And we seem to keep ending up one possession behind with that strategy.   I don't if that is because the Bengals , Chiefs and Texans had better talent than the Bills or if this is what the Bills are consiously trying to do. 

I think it is what many of us have seen and talked about, giving free release off the line of scrimmage to receivers, playing contain vs getting in the opponents face at the line, , that is how we play, even in crunch time, and it’s by design, and it needs to change at times throughout the game, especially in the fourth quarter when we are tied or up by three,  etc etc, again jmo.

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1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

If he gets back to that 105 PR 37 TD pass 10 INT QB from the 2020 season 

 

This is who he was in the Chiefs playoff game.

 

He was taking the underneath passes most of the game and took his shots when the defense gave him an opportunity.

 

He was 2020 Josh.

 

.

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12 minutes ago, Toyo321 said:

It comes down matchup metrics.  When it matters.  Buffalo has failed to match up and excel in this area in the playoffs compared to KC going back to 2017.

 

Buffalo D metrics in the regular season are above average.  But in the post season Buffalo's D averages 23.4 points a game given up to its competion since 2017.

 

Buffalo O metrics in the regular season are also well above average.  But in the post season Buffalo's O only averages only 24.5 points per game since 2017.

 

You are not going to win many playoff games with that close of a points margin, scored vs allowed differential,  this stat alone exposes this teams flaw in games they have not won in the post season.  Their D as bad as it has been even with injuries has been good enough to keep them in games.  Its on Offense where this team fails in the post season.  It has glimpses of being elite but when compared to KC we are not even in the same league as Reid and McHomes.  NO AFC Championships, NO Super Bowls.

 

KC's Metrics D since 2017   23.13 PPG allowed

KC's Metrics O since 2017   30.13 PPG scored  including all superbowls played.

 

KC in the playoffs since 2017 are 13-2

Buffalo in the playoffs since 2017 are 5-6

 

Until Buffalo can get more fire power surrounding JA17 this trend will continue.  Being just average at scoring points against quality competition in the playoffs is what will lose a you games in the post season.  Buffalo's record of 5-6 proves this.  They are a sub .500 playoff team since 2017 and the Beane and McD era.

 

KC > Buff until this is fixed.

 

Fun fact: The Bills are second in playoff appearances since 2017 with 11.

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6 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

The difference might literally be as simple as Steve Spagnuolo. The guy is really good. Shut down the 2007 Patriots offense when he was with the Giants.

 

The Bills will never get to the Super Bowl if they are giving up 27+ points in every single divisional/conference championship game. It's too much to ask of the offense in consecutive weeks against the top four teams in the conference. 

This… for McDermott to be a great defensive guy, our defense folds every year, it’s time for them to draft outside the box. Because the guys there getting on the Dline get own in big games , even against backups!!!!

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One or two more plays must be made by the Bills in a big spot. It’s either a skill player or a play call that will put us over the hump. The windows wide open and my guess is this team will show the winning pedigree in the regular season in the next few seasons. No need to panic. The core is in place. The Miller signing has not paid dividends yet. Maybe it’s a big sack like his game changing play that put the Rams over the top that will be the difference. 

 

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7 hours ago, MJS said:

More regular season success than virtually every team EXCEPT Kansas City... And they are the ones that keep knocking the Bills out of the playoffs.

 

It's as simple as that. We are in the middle of a Chiefs dynasty and the Bills are really good, but not quite as good as them.

 

But they are close. The games are always close. They've shown they can hang with them. So, keep trying and one of these years they will.

We are the Joe Flacco Ravens who keep running into Brady. Its not some massive failure.

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2 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Chasm? Near misses hardly qualify as a chasm. 

Bills are among the top most successful regular season teams. 

The are the most disappointing playoff performers. 

There is no real room for a bigger gap.

Just now, FireChans said:

We are the Joe Flacco Ravens who keep running into Brady. Its not some massive failure.

The Joe Flacco Ravens, aside from one Super Bowl, actually were a failure as far as winning championships.  But the Bills have failed against the Texans, Bengals and Chiefs, so your point really isn't accurate. 

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1 minute ago, Chaos said:

Bills are among the top most successful regular season teams. 

The are the most disappointing playoff performers. 

There is no real room for a bigger gap.

The Ravens are far more disappointing in the playoffs, not sure where you got your “most disappointing” stat.

4 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Bills are among the top most successful regular season teams. 

The are the most disappointing playoff performers. 

There is no real room for a bigger gap.

The Joe Flacco Ravens, aside from one Super Bowl, actually were a failure as far as winning championships.  But the Bills have failed against the Texans, Bengals and Chiefs, so your point really isn't accurate. 

Aside from winning a championship, they are a failure because they didn’t win championships?

 

it’s time to start defining words here.

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1 hour ago, Chaos said:

This is the point of thread.  It juxtaposes this question against the fact that the Bills have been successful in the regular season. 

 

Well yeah, but in several instances the specifics have been obvious.  The general reasons in others are also obvious.  

 

We've been over them many many many times here over the past months.  

 

Some people simply refuse to acknowledge the obvious.  

 

Take "13 Seconds" for instance.  It's well known why we lost that, and likely the Super Bowl that season as well.  But simply because it hasn't officially been stated, many assume that there's some other reason.  It is what it is/was.  

 

 

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1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well yeah, but in several instances the specifics have been obvious.  The general reasons in others are also obvious.  

 

We've been over them many many many times here over the past months.  

 

Some people simply refuse to acknowledge the obvious.  

 

 

I am not sure what you mean to be obvious.  I think you mean "the problem is coaching, there is nothing that can be changed on the football field to solve the problem".  But I am not sure. 

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31 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Bills are among the top most successful regular season teams. 

The are the most disappointing playoff performers. 

There is no real room for a bigger gap.

The Joe Flacco Ravens, aside from one Super Bowl, actually were a failure as far as winning championships.  But the Bills have failed against the Texans, Bengals and Chiefs, so your point really isn't accurate. 


A better comp is Peyton Manning’s Colts IMO. But Fire Chans point is still valid. Bolls have been extremely successful over the last 4 seasons. 
 

They’ve been outdated in the postseason by the Chiefs, Chiefs, Bengals and Chiefs. We haven’t been losing to the  likes of the Colts, Ravens, Pats,  Dolphins or Steelers. 
 

And until proven otherwise I fear the Bengals far more than the Chiefs. We’ve yet to have a competitive game against the Bengals in 2.25 tries. 

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