Logic Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I really enjoyed this article from The Ringer discussing Tua's performance in big games over the years. It's well reasoned and has lots of good date and info. It illustrates that Tua's performance gets worse later in the season (even at home), that his worst losses by EPA have mostly come later in the season, and that he does not perform as well in the 4th quarter of games. There's more to it than just the charts pictured here, and I suggest everyone give this whole article a read. https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2024/1/5/24026177/dolphins-bills-tua-tagovailoa-future-nfl-playoffs-afc-east 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warriorspikes51 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Intriguing. I think Tua seems like a quality guy. I’m not sold on him being a top tier QB. He’s had a really good season. A lot of his success is built on timing. If he has to hold the ball / WR’s routes are disrupted…his level of play seems to decrease rapidly 1 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logic Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said: Intriguing. I think Tua seems like a quality guy. I’m not sold on him being a top tier QB. He’s had a really good season. A lot of his success is built on timing. If he has to hold the ball / WR’s routes are disrupted…his level of play seems to decrease rapidly Yeah, the article alludes to the following: McDaniel and Shanahan's systems (which are basically the same) are predicated on the concept of identifying just a few things that your offense does really well -- say, post routes, crossers, and outside zone runs -- and building an offense where you get to those few concepts from a multitude of different formations and personnel packages. The only PROBLEM with that idea is that if and when defenses find out what those few concepts are and recognize the indications that you're about to run them, then you might be in trouble. That is, if the opposing defenses' ability to diagnose and defend your preferred concepts outpaces your ability to disguise them, then your offense may stagnate. This goes back to what Patrick Queen was saying about the Dolphins and 49ers having "tells" that they picked up on. Hopefully the Bills defense has recognized the same. Edited January 5 by Logic 5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBill Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Pretty telling stuff. Though to a lesser degree and with far more talent you have to wonder if that is what has happened to Diggs and Josh. There is a ton of film out there on the two of them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warriorspikes51 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) 4 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said: Pretty telling stuff. Though to a lesser degree and with far more talent you have to wonder if that is what has happened to Diggs and Josh. There is a ton of film out there on the two of them. I really wish we could put Diggs inside more often and attack with quick slants. He’s truly elite on those and for whatever reasons it seems most of his routes are always close to the sideline. (Unless it’s my imagination) The few times we’ve shown up-tempo, quick release offense we are borderline unstoppable. Edited January 5 by Warriorspikes51 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said: Pretty telling stuff. Though to a lesser degree and with far more talent you have to wonder if that is what has happened to Diggs and Josh. There is a ton of film out there on the two of them. There is plenty of tape of Josh and Diggs but there is also plenty of Tua to Waddle and Hill. The bills don't have a RB that averages 8 yards/carry. That's something that will always be on the mind of a DC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finn Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 35 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said: I really wish we could put Diggs inside more often and attack with quick slants. He’s truly elite on those and for whatever reasons it seems most of his routes are always close to the sideline. (Unless it’s my imagination) The few times we’ve shown up-tempo, quick release offense we are borderline unstoppable. Right, it's a mystery why they stopped the quick-tempo offense. It's almost like Dorsey thought, "Well, that works, so let's move away from it, just to fool them." I don't recall Brady going back to it, either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Well Waddle I think is ruled out, and Hill is hobbled. Most likely a heavy dose of Achan. Mostert is out as well or at least hasn’t practiced all week. They also have I believe Jalen Smith, and Chubb probably not playing. We have a good chance as we’re pretty darn healthy. I know Hamlin, but he’s a backup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, machine gun kelly said: Well Waddle I think is ruled out, and Hill is hobbled. Most likely a heavy dose of Achan. Mostert is out as well or at least hasn’t practiced all week. They also have I believe Jalen Smith, and Chubb probably not playing. We have a good chance as we’re pretty darn healthy. I know Hamlin, but he’s a backup. I think Waddle is trending towards playing 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOUSE Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 He bangs his head a lot which is not good 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRH Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 32 minutes ago, RiotAct said: I think Waddle is trending towards playing I think that's a smokescreen. If he plays and aggravates it to the point where he's not available next week, that would be stupid. Then again, (1) who knows what secret elixirs they're pumping into players down there, and (2) they were stupid enough to leave Chubb in the game last week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 (edited) 1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said: Intriguing. I think Tua seems like a quality guy. I’m not sold on him being a top tier QB. He’s had a really good season. A lot of his success is built on timing. If he has to hold the ball / WR’s routes are disrupted…his level of play seems to decrease rapidly He is a system QB that requires a LOT around him to look good. If he has to carry a team, forget it. So sure, you can win with him but at some point it just becomes a lot to overcome when things have to near perfect for him to succeed. Prefer Allen or Mahomes that can make things happen even when they aren't perfect. Paying Tua $50 million a year is going to ensure the Fins aren't very good for a long time since they will have to skimp on other areas on their roster and he can't make up for it. Edited January 6 by Big Turk 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 (edited) If he gets the ball out under 2.5 seconds, plays in the “system”, he is very efficient. Bills did a great job of jamming receivers/clogging passing lanes in the first meeting. This allowed the dline to get after Tua. Hopefully more of the same this game. Edited January 6 by atlbillsfan1975 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transient Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 7 minutes ago, Big Turk said: He is a system QB that requires a LOT around him to look good. If he has to carry a team, forget it. So sure, you can win with him but at some point it just becomes a lot to overcome when things have to near perfect for him to succeed. Easier to get Allen or Mahomes that can make things happen even when they aren't perfect. At the moment, he's a system QB on a rookie contract so they can still afford to put a lot of talent around him... that will soon change. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sierra Foothills Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Interestingly, Tua has not played in a playoff game in his 4 NFL seasons. 1 hour ago, The Wiz said: There is plenty of tape of Josh and Diggs but there is also plenty of Tua to Waddle and Hill. The bills don't have a RB that averages 8 yards/carry. That's something that will always be on the mind of a DC. Yes, any QB would be ecstatic to have wideouts like Hill and Waddle... and a running attack like the Dolphins. Those things are a platform for QB success. 1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said: Well Waddle I think is ruled out, and Hill is hobbled. Most likely a heavy dose of Achan. Mostert is out as well or at least hasn’t practiced all week. They also have I believe Jalen Smith, and Chubb probably not playing. We have a good chance as we’re pretty darn healthy. I know Hamlin, but he’s a backup. I wouldn't be surprised if Waddle and Mostert played against the Bills but regardless we have a big advantage on the injury report. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Tua is not great. He can't elevate his team. He has to rely on his team to elevate him. In crunch time, when great competition is stepping up to win big games, Tua's teammates are naturally gonna struggle and Tua is not capable of making up for it like a truly great QB can. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said: Interestingly, Tua has not played in a playoff game in his 4 NFL seasons. Yes, any QB would be ecstatic to have wideouts like Hill and Waddle... and a running attack like the Dolphins. Those things are a platform for QB success. I wouldn't be surprised if Waddle and Mostert played against the Bills but regardless we have a big advantage on the injury report. Not interestingly...he is always injured by then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr.Sack Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Tua only needs to play one good game. The margin for error is thin in 2023/24. We need a great pass rush. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said: Interestingly, Tua has not played in a playoff game in his 4 NFL seasons. Yes, any QB would be ecstatic to have wideouts like Hill and Waddle... and a running attack like the Dolphins. Those things are a platform for QB success. I wouldn't be surprised if Waddle and Mostert played against the Bills but regardless we have a big advantage on the injury report. Yeah, usually if they don’t practice the entire week, it’s doubtful, but we’ll find out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Doug Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 So, basically, this is going to come down to the 4th quarter of the final game of the season, maybe even final play, and despite the best efforts of McD, we’re actually going to win this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goin Breakdown Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 If tuas success is dependent on timing, and he is pretty successful (pro bowl and all for what that's worth) then why don't all teams follow the same blue print and run timing routes? I mean if it make a bad Qb look really good then it should make a really good Qb look generational right? Josh is awesome yet holds the ball too long much of the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SirAndrew Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I don’t know if he does, but I guess we’re about to find out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Otreply Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just turf Tua a bunch of times and things will take of themselves…, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo716 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 24 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said: If tuas success is dependent on timing, and he is pretty successful (pro bowl and all for what that's worth) then why don't all teams follow the same blue print and run timing routes? I mean if it make a bad Qb look really good then it should make a really good Qb look generational right? Josh is awesome yet holds the ball too long much of the time. Rhythm passing offenses can obviously be very effective in th NFL ... But once you get a talented NFL defense that can take you off your rhythm... It doesn't look as good When you create an offense based on quick reads and rhythm... Once you force the offense off the 1st or 2nd read it gets discombobulated Tua has a super quick release and can read a defense very very well... He is not adept at creating plays ... But he can play within a system ... Which is what the dolphins do well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goin Breakdown Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 8 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said: Rhythm passing offenses can obviously be very effective in th NFL ... But once you get a talented NFL defense that can take you off your rhythm... It doesn't look as good When you create an offense based on quick reads and rhythm... Once you force the offense off the 1st or 2nd read it gets discombobulated Tua has a super quick release and can read a defense very very well... He is not adept at creating plays ... But he can play within a system ... Which is what the dolphins do well Imagine taking josh, who is crazy with the off script and give him that timing to go along with it. I know we've seen it but they tend to go away from it as well. I think of the Rams game last year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I still remember when Fitz got Covid before that 2020 finale, ESPN was talking about what a big loss it was for Miami to lose their BACKUP QB. Then Tua got absolutely rocked. Dude had one good half in college of big time play and has lived off that ever since Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Tua has been bad against the Bills, at least. He has a 1-5 win loss record, and a passer rating of 79.6, with 5 TD's and 6 INT's. Sean McDermott knows how to deal with him. And McDermott usually keeps Tyreek Hill in check too, whether when he was with the Chiefs or now with the Dolphins. And given all the injuries to the Dolphins, I think this is going to be a Bills win. But they play the games for a reason... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFunPolice Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I feel like with both Shanahan and McDaniels have a simple but very effective system and just out talent you 49ers are a loaded roster, and the same is true in Miami. Neither has a truly great QB I do, however, hope Tua gets the Burrow contract 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 (edited) 6 hours ago, Goin Breakdown said: If tuas success is dependent on timing, and he is pretty successful (pro bowl and all for what that's worth) then why don't all teams follow the same blue print and run timing routes? I mean if it make a bad Qb look really good then it should make a really good Qb look generational right? Josh is awesome yet holds the ball too long much of the time. Other teams don’t have 4.4 speed at like 4 positions at the same time…that quick release business isn’t going for 10-15 yard gains for other teams…they’ve gotta hold the ball longer. A lot of teams have one fast receiver but you really would need 2+ to put the defender in conflict as fast as possible tua is just taking a snap reading one conflict defender 10 yards down the middle of the field and throwing.. it’s a bit risky against clever defensive coordinators because they start baiting you into stuff and there’s just no time post snap for tua to adjust. They’re kind of destined to absolutely destroy bad defenses that can’t communicate in the secondary and struggle mightily against good defenses The bills rpo/option route heavy offense gives them a lot more opportunity to adapt based on what the defense is doing but there’s also a higher chance people aren’t on the same page Edited January 6 by Generic_Bills_Fan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TAinLack. Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12 hours ago, BRH said: I think that's a smokescreen. If he plays and aggravates it to the point where he's not available next week, that would be stupid. Then again, (1) who knows what secret elixirs they're pumping into players down there, and (2) they were stupid enough to leave Chubb in the game last week. We're talking about McDaniels here, Waddle will be playing as well as Hill. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Never got posting stuff like before the actual game is played. Seems like a terrible jinx. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.