The somewhat probable scenario where Bills win out and miss the playoffs

[LarryMadman]

11 hours ago, BufBills83 said:

So I actually figured out the scenario that leaves the Bills out of the playoffs at 11-6.

 

- Miami beats Dallas and Baltimore, and loses to Buffalo.  Miami wins division at 12-5.

- Baltimore wins enough games to win division, but loses to Miami.

- Jacksonville wins division by winning out and going 11-6.

- KC loses to Cincy but wins their other 2 games, finish 11-6 and win division.

 

Those are the division winners.  Now for the wildcard teams.

 

- Cleveland beats Houston and Jets but lose to Cincy.  Finish 11-6 and the 5 seed.

- Cincy wins out.  This makes them 11-6 and the 6 seed since they beat Indy.

- Indy wins out, beating Atl, LV and Hou.  Finish 11-6 and the 7 seed.

- Houston loses to Cleveland and loses to Indy.  This leaves Houston out of the playoffs at 9-8, but gives Cleveland and Indy needed wins to stay above us.

 

So if Buffalo wins out and goes 11-6, if all these other things happen, we are left out as we lose out on tiebreakers.  However, for this to happen, all of the remaining games have to have these exact results:

 

Week 16:  Jax beats Tampa, Cleveland beats Hou, Cincy beats Pitt, Indy beats Atlanta, Miami beats Dallas

Week 17:  Jax beats Carolina, Cleveland beats Jets, Cincy beats KC, Indy beats LV, Miami beats Baltimore

Week 18:  Jax beats Tennesee, Cincy beats Cleveland, Indy beats Houston

 

So in total there are 13 games from week 16 to week 18 where if one of the results above go the other way, we control our own destiny.  So we need 1 good outcome out of 13 games.  Its highly improbable that all the games go this exact way.  I can see Tampa beating Jax this week, Dallas beating Miami, maybe even Pitt winning.  I can def see KC beating Cincy in week 17.  There are a lot of possibilities for us to control our destiny.

I got roasted in an older thread for posting similar stuff. This isn't as crazy and far fetched, the Bills missing out with 11 wins as people think. That said I do believe the Bills make it in with 11 wins, they did it to themselves, their playoff ticket should have been punched weeks ago. 

Edited December 23, 2023 by LarryMadman

[Tim Tindale]

I’m sorry, there is no chance they go 11-6 and miss the playoffs. I don’t care what absurd, needle-thread scenario one comes up with. It’s not going to happen. The notion that just Miami wins at home this weekend AND on the road at Baltimore, after coming up small in every big game this year… and we aren’t even talking about the other 8-6 bubble teams that are all playing backup qb’s right now. I reject it. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

47 minutes ago, Tim Tindale said:

I’m sorry, there is no chance they go 11-6 and miss the playoffs. I don’t care what absurd, needle-thread scenario one comes up with. It’s not going to happen. The notion that just Miami wins at home this weekend AND on the road at Baltimore, after coming up small in every big game this year… and we aren’t even talking about the other 8-6 bubble teams that are all playing backup qb’s right now. I reject it. 

Thank you.  As has been pointed out, anyone that thinks missing out at 11-6 is even “somewhat probable” should put some money on a huge parlay, as it will pay nicely for them.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

57 minutes ago, LarryMadman said:

I got roasted in an older thread for posting similar stuff. This isn't as crazy and far fetched, the Bills missing out with 11 wins as people think. That said I do believe the Bills make it in with 11 wins, they did it to themselves, their playoff ticket should have been punched weeks ago. 

 

Odds wise, are they not more likely to make it in with 10 wins then they are to miss the playoffs with 11?

 

Basically a 13 team ML parlay has to hit. And the majority of these games are near even money type spreads. Not like +300 or +500 dogs needing to pull off the upset. 

 

You would win a ton of money in Vegas hitting a 13 team parlay. 

[djp14150]

Buffalo clinches WC with a WW and 3 of the 4 occur and CLE is at 10+ W. Basically BUF, CLE and onr other team for WC can get to 10+ wins.

 

1. CIN LL( can’t get to 10 wins)

2. PIT L one ( can’t get to 10 wins)

3. DEN L one ( can’t get to 10 wins)

4.afc South you have only 1 teams that can get to 10 wins in 2nd place. The simplest one is if HOU and IND both Lose a game in next 2 because they play each other in week 18. 
 

If CLE goes LL then it adds other scenarios because they play CIN in week 18. If CIN L just one then VLE-CIN week 18 means only one of them can get to 10 wins which opens up another WC spot.

 

Also if JAX goes LL can add other wrinkles.
 

End of day—BUF at 10 W and at most  2 other WC teams can get go 10+ W.  
 

BUF can’t get top seed. They can get #2 seed with winning div at 11 wins,BALW one,  KC L a game, and the south winner is under 11 wins. If BUF, BAL, KC are all at 11-6 it goes KC, BAL, BUF. KC better conf rec, BAL over BUF by common games ( CIN, JAX, MIA, LAC) BAL 4-1 vs 3-2 by BUF.

 

 

 

[Doc]

It is actually improbable that the Bills win out and miss the playoffs.  Just taking a cursory glance at the schedule, I can’t see the Stroud-less Texans beating the Browns tomorrow or the Colts beating the Texans (assuming Stroud returns by then) the last game of the season.

[Ecmic82]

I do believe this is the only scenario in which the Bills win out but miss the playoffs.

 

a shorthand for the Bills to go 10-7 and still make the playoffs is:

 

Denver and Pittsburgh lose 1 more game, and

2 of Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Houston, and Jacksonville lose 2 more games.

 

(other scenarios exist, including paths where the Browns lose 3 games, but are somewhat less probable 😉)

 

if you’d like to mitigate the emotional toll of the worst-case scenario, you can get north of 1000-1 odds on the 13 leg parlay.

Edited December 23, 2023 by Ecmic82

[boater]

"somewhat probable scenario"

 

I wonder what is somewhat probable in statistics. Is it .5 to .7 maybe?

 

67% of statistics are made up on the spot.

[Motorin']

20 minutes ago, boater said:

"somewhat probable scenario"

 

I wonder what is somewhat probable in statistics. Is it .5 to .7 maybe?

 

67% of statistics are made up on the spot.

 

I think the more accurate assessment is the "somewhat improbable, but not impossible scenario" 

[strive_for_five_guy]

20 minutes ago, boater said:

"somewhat probable scenario"

 

I wonder what is somewhat probable in statistics. Is it .5 to .7 maybe?

 

67% of statistics are made up on the spot.

I’m told somewhat probable equals < 1%.

[BufBills83]

Its not even remotely likely they miss the playoffs at 11-6.  As I mentioned in my previous post, only 1 of the 13 games I listed has to go the opposite way I mentioned for us to control our own destiny, i.e. make the playoffs at 11-6.  Thats why our probability to make it is greater than 99%.  The chances of all 13 of those games' outcomes going that exact way is super low.

[LarryMadman]

3 hours ago, BufBills83 said:

Its not even remotely likely they miss the playoffs at 11-6.  As I mentioned in my previous post, only 1 of the 13 games I listed has to go the opposite way I mentioned for us to control our own destiny, i.e. make the playoffs at 11-6.  Thats why our probability to make it is greater than 99%.  The chances of all 13 of those games' outcomes going that exact way is super low.

I agree but all these other teams are also playing for their playoff lives like the Bills as somebody will be left out. 

[TheWeatherMan]

This “somewhat probable” scenario all ready highly improbable after 20 minutes into the first game 😂 

[Billznut]

This thread now can officially be placed in the dungeon of TBD as dead and buried. 

[Mikie2times]

6 minutes ago, Billznut said:

This thread now can officially be placed in the dungeon of TBD as dead and buried. 

It survived all of the first game of week 16. 

[GoBills808]

6 hours ago, Motorin&#x27; said:

 

I think the more accurate assessment is the "somewhat improbable, but not impossible scenario" 

Not somewhat improbable lol

 

More like almost completely impossible 

 

 

[HappyDays]

I won't lie, I was still a tad nervous despite knowing it was extremely improbable to win out and miss the playoffs. I was going to be restless until it was a sure thing... Now we know. The Bills control their own destiny.

[Motorin']

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Not somewhat improbable lol

 

More like almost completely impossible 

 

 

 

It would be funny if this scenario went up in smoke in the first of 13 games needed....

 

But the Bills need to win, that's more important than anything really. 

[Bills!Win!]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I won't lie, I was still a tad nervous despite knowing it was extremely improbable to win out and miss the playoffs. I was going to be restless until it was a sure thing... Now we know. The Bills control their own destiny.

 Good practice for the playoffs. Go in with a full head of steam

[Mikie2times]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I won't lie, I was still a tad nervous despite knowing it was extremely improbable to win out and miss the playoffs. I was going to be restless until it was a sure thing... Now we know. The Bills control their own destiny.

I believe we can still finish 11-6 and if the Browns lose just 1 game and Colts or Texans win out, they would hold the tie breaker. Mind you, all 3 can't have this occur because they play each other, but 2 of the 3 scenarios can happen which would lock up the two Wild Cards. By all means correct me if I'm wrong. But Cleveland with one more AFC loss has a better conference record and the same is true of either Houston or Indy if they win out. 

 

 

[stevestojan]

Go Steelers. 
 

/thread. 

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, Mikie2times said:

I believe we can still finish 11-6 and if the Browns lose just 1 game and Colts or Texans win out, they would hold the tie breaker. Mind you, all 3 can't have this occur because they play each other, but 2 of the 3 scenarios can happen which would lock up the two Wild Cards. By all means correct me if I'm wrong. But Cleveland with one more AFC loss has a better conference record and the same is true of either Houston or Indy if they win out. 

 

 

 

No at this point we control our own destiny. Colts and Texans still play each other. One of them will end up at 7 losses. The only other wildcard team that has a path to 11-6 is the Browns.  There's three wildcard teams... If we finish 11-6 we are now assured to be one of them.

[Mikie2times]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

No at this point we control our own destiny. Colts and Texans still play each other. One of them will end up at 7 losses. The only other wildcard team that has a path to 11-6 is the Browns.  There's three wildcard teams... If we finish 11-6 we are now assured to be one of them.

dumb dumb I am, for some reason I was thinking only two Wild Card spots for non division winners. Good deal. In that case, for sure, in our hands and 100% agree. Really nice to have that part resolved and fully in our hands. Now perhaps we root for one loss and still in? But we really need to run the table. IMO it doesn't show very well if we can't accomplish that with what we want to accomplish in the playoffs. 

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Now perhaps we root for one loss and still in?

 

It isn't that unlikely. Bengals need to drop one more. Texans or Colts or Jaguars need to drop two more. Broncos need to drop one more. Steelers need to drop one more. That's our path to getting in at 10-7.

 

If the Falcons and Browns both win this weekend (over the Colts and Texans respectively), we just need Broncos, Steelers, and Bengals to drop one more each and we get in at 10-7 no matter what.

[Gunsgoodtime]

What are our odds now to make the playoffs if we lose a game now?  Just curious 

[Cheektowaga Chad]

So does the Steelers win put the bills playoff hopes into their own hands officially?

[Nelius]

On 12/21/2023 at 9:43 PM, Mr. WEO said:

lol bengals and colts 

Credit where it’s due. Later Cincy

[chongli]

21 minutes ago, Cheektowaga Chad said:

So does the Steelers win put the bills playoff hopes into their own hands officially?

 

Yes.

 

------

 

Second message: 

 

I never took Cincy seriously. As soon as Burrow went down, I knew they were done. Their luck finally ran out. The same goes for upstart teams like Indy and Houston.

Edited December 24, 2023 by chongli

[ColoradoBills]

45 minutes ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

What are our odds now to make the playoffs if we lose a game now?  Just curious 

 

69%

[transplantbillsfan]

Not anymore 

[Billsatlastin2018]

That’s ALL gibberish.

 

1) Buffalo wins out.

2) Fish lose to Cowgirls or Baltimore.

=

 

Bills are home in Wild Card Round.

[Seventeen]

#6 seed right now  

[chongli]

 

 

[Buffalo Boy]

WE ARE IN!!!!

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

I like how this "somewhat probable" scenario got nixed in the very first game.

[Big Turk]

On 12/21/2023 at 11:27 PM, ImpactCorey said:

I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs.  >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs?  This is what I came up with:

 

- First, the Bills win out.  They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins.  With how they are playing as of late, very possible.  

 

- The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills.   These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens.  This allows them to still win the division.  These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible.

 

- With the loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens still win their division by beating the 49ers or the Steelers.  I think the Steelers game is almost a lock.

 

- The Jaguars win their division by winning out against the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans.  All weak opponents and very possible assuming Lawrence stays healthy.

 

- Kansas City wins their division by beating the Raiders and Chargers.  These teams will have nothing left to play for and KC will take advantage.  However, KC drops one to the Bengals.  More on this later.

 

- The Colts win out by beating the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans.  Winning out will be tough here for the Colts but not great teams they face along the way.

 

- The Browns beat the Texans and Jets but drop one to the Bengals.   Houston may have a problem at QB and the Jets are the Jets.  This seems reasonable.  Bengals being a key loss again.

 

- The Bengals win out.  They beat the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns.  Two key wins as previously mentioned.  This is the most unlikely part of the scenario in my opinion but also the most crucial.  Bengals wining out would be catastrophic for the Bills hopes.   Steelers are falling apart.  Bengals always play up on the Chiefs, and the Browns are a divisional match up.  I'll definitely be paying attention.

 

So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out.  You know.. in case you were wondering.

 

 

What did I tell you about "lock games" this time of year?  You thought the Bengals were a "lock" to beat the Steelers and instead they got their teeth kicked in and looked like they were the team falling apart not the Steelers.  Surprised to see the Steelers kick their @ss so bad, but not that they won.  They give the Bengals fits, even when they have Burrow playing. Have now won 3 of the last 4 games against the Bengals.

On 12/22/2023 at 12:19 AM, Rubes said:

Don’t be so sure…

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3W4Zf8Za0FE

 

[Mr. Wonderful]

6 hours ago, Billsatlastin2018 said:

That’s ALL gibberish.

 

1) Buffalo wins out.

2) Fish lose to Cowgirls or Baltimore.

=

 

Bills are home in Wild Card Round.

 

While unlikely, what if Dolphins lose to Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo?  Bills win AFC East?

[strive_for_five_guy]

7 minutes ago, Mr. Wonderful said:

 

While unlikely, what if Dolphins lose to Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo?  Bills win AFC East?

Yes, if Dolphins lose all three, we win AFC East regardless of whether

we beat Pats or not.

[djp14150]

19 minutes ago, Mr. Wonderful said:

 

While unlikely, what if Dolphins lose to Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo?  Bills win AFC East?

Right now Miami’s magic number to win the AFC is 2.

 

1. if MIA goes WW then they clinch the division.

2. IF MIA goes LW or WL and BUF W then BUF is a game behind going into week 18. BUF W they get div because odpf season sweep.

3. If Miami goes LL and BUF W then they are tied. W or T week 18 goes to buffalo for division.

4. IF Miami goes LL and BUF L then it is similar to #3. Where they are one game apart and a W and BUF wins division.

[Big Turk]

7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

It isn't that unlikely. Bengals need to drop one more. Texans or Colts or Jaguars need to drop two more. Broncos need to drop one more. Steelers need to drop one more. That's our path to getting in at 10-7.

 

If the Falcons and Browns both win this weekend (over the Colts and Texans respectively), we just need Broncos, Steelers, and Bengals to drop one more each and we get in at 10-7 no matter what.

 

Pretty sure we would win some form of multi-team tiebreaker depending on what teams they are as well at 10-7