Addressing the "Josh Allen is TO machine" narrative

[FireChans]

12 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

There is some excellent young talent on the Texans.  Tank Dell is a very good WR.

 

 

He's right on the level of Stef huh?

[Buffalo716]

3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

So on the honor of someone you care about, would you have traded their supporting cast for ours before CJ Stroud got there? 

I don't think many would if you're talking before the season started

 

Everybody in the NFL is extremely talented but I definitely did not see this coming this fast

 

 

Edited December 3, 2023 by Buffalo716

[CincyBillsFan]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

So on the honor of someone you care about, would you have traded their supporting cast for ours before CJ Stroud got there? 

Dumb question.  I didn't have the information needed to make that choice BEFORE Stroud got there.  Houston is a young team and some of their offensive talent is on the rise.  Get back to me after next year. I suspect there will be a couple of Texan play makers & linemen I would love to have on the Bills.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Dumb question.  I didn't have the information needed to make that choice BEFORE Stroud got there.  Houston is a young team and some of their offensive talent is on the rise.  Get back to me after next year. I suspect there will be a couple of Texan play makers & linemen I would love to have on the Bills.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Haha, so predictable. 

[CincyBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

He's right on the level of Stef huh?

I don't recall saying that? Before he got hurt today he did seem to be better then Bills WR's from 2018/2019 including Brown, Benjamin, Holmes, Beasely, Jones and McKenzie.

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Haha, so predictable. 

Are you still mad that I called you out about your unhinged criticisms of Allen?  Even in a comment about Stroud you just can't help yourself taking a cheap shot at Allen on 2BD.

[Bills!Win!]

Mahomes - 22 TD 10 Int

Allen - 24 TD 13 int
 

yet nobody gets upset at Mahomes 

[Drew21PA]

How about

 

mahomes is a turnover machine and last his prime!?

 

looks brutal lately 

[dma0034]

1 minute ago, Drew21PA said:

How about

 

mahomes is a turnover machine and last his prime!?

 

looks brutal lately 

 

Kelce looks like he's lost half a step and their WRs aren't good. Mahomes is finally looking like a normal QB because he his positional players aren't all-world. This season they miss Tyreek Hill badly

[UKBillFan]

3 hours ago, Bills!Win! said:

Mahomes - 22 TD 10 Int

Allen - 24 TD 13 int
 

yet nobody gets upset at Mahomes 

 

Including fumbles, I think Mahomes is only one turnover behind Josh now. Pretty sure there was a gap of two heading into this week.

[dma0034]

9 hours ago, UKBillFan said:

 

Including fumbles, I think Mahomes is only one turnover behind Josh now. Pretty sure there was a gap of two heading into this week.

 

Allen has one more fumble and one more fumble loss. 

 

But still:

Allen: 33 TDs 16 TOs

 

Mahomes: 22 TDs: 12 TOs. 

 

Allen has the higher passer rating and the QBR is 72.4 versus 69.8. 

 

Allen has been the better QB this year without question. Mahomes lucked into an elite defense this year which is why his wins are still high.

 

[C.Biscuit97]

Mahomes threw a terrible int that hurt his team tonight. But please don’t take about how bad Allen’s supporting cast is. Their wrs might be the worst group in the nfl. Rice is the only one who would play on other teams. Awful job by the FO.

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Mahomes threw a terrible int that hurt his team tonight. But please don’t take about how bad Allen’s supporting cast is. Their wrs might be the worst group in the nfl. Rice is the only one who would play on other teams. Awful job by the FO.

 

Mahomes still has the better OL, the better RB1, the better play caller, the better defense supporting him, the better FG kicker turning his successful drives into points. His pass catching weapons are also not that much worse than what the Bills are putting on the field this year. As I've said before MVS=Davis and Juston Watson=Shakir. On the whole the supporting cast that Mahomes has from top to bottom, coaching staff to roster, is MUCH better than what Allen has had to deal with.

 

The longer the season goes on, the more confident I feel saying if you put Mahomes on our team this year we would have the exact same record.

[UKBillFan]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Mahomes still has the better OL, the better RB1, the better play caller, the better defense supporting him, the better FG kicker turning his successful drives into points. His pass catching weapons are also not that much worse than what the Bills are putting on the field this year. As I've said before MVS=Davis and Juston Watson=Shakir. On the whole the supporting cast that Mahomes has from top to bottom, coaching staff to roster, is MUCH better than what Allen has had to deal with.

 

The longer the season goes on, the more confident I feel saying if you put Mahomes on our team this year we would have the exact same record.

 

And, as much as I love what Kincaid might become, at this stage they're better at TE too.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Mahomes still has the better OL, the better RB1, the better play caller, the better defense supporting him, the better FG kicker turning his successful drives into points. His pass catching weapons are also not that much worse than what the Bills are putting on the field this year. As I've said before MVS=Davis and Juston Watson=Shakir. On the whole the supporting cast that Mahomes has from top to bottom, coaching staff to roster, is MUCH better than what Allen has had to deal with.

 

The longer the season goes on, the more confident I feel saying if you put Mahomes on our team this year we would have the exact same record.

Eh, don’t agree with this at all and that’s fine. His running back was a 7th round pick while ours was a 2nd. Also, not sure how their rb is better than ours when ours has more yards from scrimmage: a better ypc; and more yor. He runs harder but that is the only evidence of him being better than Cook this year.
 

Mahomes would kill to have a receiving core of Diggs, Davis, and Kincaid. Davis would easily be his best receiver. Their o line took a big step back because of their OTs and ours has improved. Allen has been pressured less than Mahkmes. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/passing_advanced.htm
 

allen’s highs are as good as qb but I believe Mahomes is the more consistent qb so I would take him, even though he is a top 3. I know taking a 2 time MVPs/ SB winner is very insulting so I apologize in advance. 

[Roundybout]

 

 

🤔🤔🤔

[transplantbillsfan]

On 11/29/2023 at 4:05 PM, FireChans said:

So here's my response to @Alphadawg7's analysis which was hyper-focused on solely interceptions.

 

We are gonna look at QB's since 2018 (since Josh entered the league) and analyze the TD:TO ratio

 

Aaron Rodgers

4.3 (!)

 

Patrick Mahomes

3.2

Russell Wilson

2.9

 

Tom Brady

2.73

 

Justin Herbert

2.65

 

Jalen Hurts

2.5

 

Deshaun Watson

2.43

 

Joe Burrow

2.27

 

Kirk Cousins

2.24

 

Lamar Jackson

2.23

 

Dak Prescott

2.23

 

Josh Allen

2.18

 

Ryan Tannehill

2.09

 

Matt Stafford

1.79

 

Jared Goff

1.64

 

Matt Ryan

1.64

 

Derek Carr

1.5

 

So what does this tell us?  Josh's counting numbers are elite, but on a TD:TO ratio, he's near the bottom rung of the upper echelon QB's in the NFL today.

 

Now, some of these QB's are trending downward significantly from who or what they were 4-5 years ago, namely Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson.   But, IMO, this supports the narrative that Josh Allen is almost as much of a TO machine as he is a TD machine.

 

 

Now do 2023 alone.

 

I was listening to the Locked On Podcast from yesterday with Joe Marino, who had Nate Geary on as a guest.  Anyone not familiar with Geary... dude knows his stuff.

 

Geary said that Josh Allen (as of yesterday) has the 2nd best TD:TO ratio in 2023 and it's pretty much ignored by everyone.

 

You did the math since 2018.  Do the math for this year alone.

 

Pretty much shatters your narrative as far as 2023 goes.

[GoBills808]

17 hours ago, Roundybout said:

 

 

🤔🤔🤔

Louder

[oldmanfan]

48 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Now do 2023 alone.

 

I was listening to the Locked On Podcast from yesterday with Joe Marino, who had Nate Geary on as a guest.  Anyone not familiar with Geary... dude knows his stuff.

 

Geary said that Josh Allen (as of yesterday) has the 2nd best TD:TO ratio in 2023 and it's pretty much ignored by everyone.

 

You did the math since 2018.  Do the math for this year alone.

 

Pretty much shatters your narrative as far as 2023 goes.

And it could be even better if he hadn’t thrown the picks.  Why is it so GD hard for folks to get the concept that, as great a QB as Josh is, you can always improve, and in his case it would be by throwing less interceptions? 

[transplantbillsfan]

14 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

And it could be even better if he hadn’t thrown the picks.  Why is it so GD hard for folks to get the concept that, as great a QB as Josh is, you can always improve, and in his case it would be by throwing less interceptions? 

 

Yes... but how many egregious interceptions has Josh actually had this year?  I'm talking interceptions that were just terrible decision making and/or terrible throw?

 

5?

 

6 at most?

 

Hail Mary INT vs. the Eagles certainly doesn't count.

 

Gabe Davis's drop vs. the Broncos in the Red Zone turned INT doesn't count.

 

The bomb he threw to Diggs near the goal line earlier this season (Jags???) wasn't a great throw, but it wasn't a bad throw.  It was in Diggs's hands... he just didn't fight to hold onto the ball like he normally does.

 

The sheer number of dropbacks Allen has had to pass should probably also be taken into consideration.  Allen has the 4th most passing attempts in the NFL.  3 of those QBs ahead of Allen also have double digit INTs.  If the plays Allen scrambled on were taken into consideration, he probably jumps to #2 or #3 in terms of dropbacks in 2023.

 

Allen could be better when it comes to Interceptions, but the narrative nationally of him regarding his turnovers is pretty unfair.

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yes... but how many egregious interceptions has Josh actually had this year?  I'm talking interceptions that were just terrible decision making and/or terrible throw?

 

5?

 

6 at most?

 

Hail Mary INT vs. the Eagles certainly doesn't count.

 

Gabe Davis's drop vs. the Broncos in the Red Zone turned INT doesn't count.

 

The bomb he threw to Diggs near the goal line earlier this season (Jags???) wasn't a great throw, but it wasn't a bad throw.  It was in Diggs's hands... he just didn't fight to hold onto the ball like he normally does.

 

The sheer number of dropbacks Allen has had to pass should probably also be taken into consideration.  Allen has the 4th most passing attempts in the NFL.  3 of those QBs ahead of Allen also have double digit INTs.  If the plays Allen scrambled on were taken into consideration, he probably jumps to #2 or #3 in terms of dropbacks in 2023.

 

Allen could be better when it comes to Interceptions, but the narrative nationally of him regarding his turnovers is pretty unfair.

All this is rationalization.  Teams that win the turnover battle win the majority of times.  ergo the less turnovers the better.  Josh has thrown his share of picks.  He's a great QB but it's an area he can improve.  It's OK to say this without being thought of as a Josh hater or such.

[WideNine]

ratio smatio 😁

 

Your not an Allen hater if you see trends from your OB that are hurting the team - just someone who looks at negative trends and perhaps want to dive into why that is happening rather than close your eyes and accept on blind faith it will just trend back into something better without any changes.

For me, the turnovers I had issues with were more about the turn-downs on the easy dumps and completions that would move the chains. Instead, Allen was forcing the ball downfield to well-covered receivers and tighter windows. It resulted in more INTs, Allen holding the ball longer, and our star QB taking shots from defenders rather than getting the ball out of his hands more quickly.

Also, the trends from later last season and the first half of this season made me wonder if he understood the play designs Dorsey was scheming up, if receivers were running the right routes, were we leaning into our run game enough to tap the brakes on pass rushers, and if Allen really knew where his reads & outlets were. There was also enough confusion on plays that it pointed to an offense that was not being designed, communicated, and understood very well from the top down.

I think we have seen better results and more balanced play from Allen since the org moved on from Dorsey. Now we see Allen doing what he does very well, and also taking the quick wins that lead to more RAC, and the offense being able to move the chains and sustain drives which gives our defense some time to catch their breath.

 

Remember only a season or so ago we actually went through a few games without punting? Between the second half of last season and the first half of this season not only were the turnovers trending up, but also the offensive 3 and outs and the need to punt more.
 

Edited December 6, 2023 by WideNine

[Royale with Cheese]

Allen has been exceptional under Brady.  McDermott let him down in Philly.  I have no worry about our offense.  It's good enough to go 5-0.

I worry about 4th quarter McDermott defense.

[Airseven]

On 12/3/2023 at 10:50 PM, Drew21PA said:

How about

 

mahomes is a turnover machine and last his prime!?

 

looks brutal lately 

Except he’s already a hall of famer with MVPs and championships. So the critique doesn’t really apply on any serious level.

[CircleTheWagons99]

 

 

Sorry if already posted. 

[John from Riverside]

We get more production and more interceptions

17 hours ago, Airseven said:

Except he’s already a hall of famer with MVPs and championships. So the critique doesn’t really apply on any serious level.

What you just said, makes no sense

[FireChans]

Team has all the momentum, one thing you can’t do is throw a dopey pick at midfield.

 

 

drink.

[gobills404]

Time to hyperfixate on one Josh Allen play and ignore the fact that our WRs and TEs have been absolute no shows all game. Josh buying them 5 seconds and they still can’t get open. You can’t expect Josh to check it down or throw it away every play.

Edited December 10, 2023 by gobills404

[Dopey]

7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Team has all the momentum, one thing you can’t do is throw a dopey pick at midfield.

 

 

drink.

Dopey agrees. 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, gobills404 said:

Time to hyperfixate on one Josh Allen play and ignore the fact that our WRs and TEs have been absolute no shows all game. Josh buying them 5 seconds and they still can’t get open. You can’t expect Josh to check it down or throw it away every play.

I expect Josh to not throw horrific picks when he doesn’t have to up 14-0 in a must win game.  
 

 

I don’t mind if you don’t. But that’s my expectation 

[gobills404]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I expect Josh to not throw horrific picks 

If you still hoping for that after 6 years then I don’t know what to tell you

[FireChans]

Just now, gobills404 said:

If you still hoping for that after 6 years then I don’t know what to tell you

It’s an expectation, not a hope.

[gobills404]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

It’s an expectation, not a hope.

Well then that’s a pretty foolish expectation. Josh Allen has been telling us he’s an overly aggressive QB for 6 years now. I wouldn’t expect that to change.

[FireChans]

Just now, gobills404 said:

Well then that’s a pretty foolish expectation. Josh Allen has been telling us he’s an overly aggressive QB for 6 years now. I wouldn’t expect that to change.

I wouldn’t expect him to be much more than an also ran playoff QB either, then.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

28 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Team has all the momentum, one thing you can’t do is throw a dopey pick at midfield.

 

 

drink.

Bills 0 points off turnovers.
 

chiefs? They butt rape our defense for a TD on the lone turnover. It is acceptable for the defense to hold to a FG. It’s not like the Chiefs got the ball inside the 30 yard line. 

then again I am arguing with a person that thinks 96 is close to 210

 

[The Wiz]

15 minutes ago, FireChans said:

It’s an expectation, not a hope.

Those are basically the same thing when it comes to a persons psychology.

 

He won't do it so just get used to it or complain that they need to move on from him.

[Dopey]

23 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Bills 0 points off turnovers.
 

chiefs? They butt rape our defense for a TD on the lone turnover. It is acceptable for the defense to hold to a FG. It’s not like the Chiefs got the ball inside the 30 yard line. 

then again I am arguing with a person that thinks 96 is close to 210

 

Whoooh, some of you are just incredible. It should be acceptable to not turn the ball over (for the 9th game in a row)when our defense has shut them down until the turnover. 
😂

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 minutes ago, Dopey said:

Whoooh, some of you are just incredible. It should be acceptable to not turn the ball over (for the 9th game in a row)when our defense has shut them down until the turnover. 
😂

have you followed Allen for his entire career? He leads the league in turnovers and TD’s. 
 

the poster I am arguing with thinks he turns the ball over almost as much as he scores? Yep. He thinks 96 turnovers is close to 210 TD’s.