Addressing the "Josh Allen is TO machine" narrative

[par73]

According to Marino's All-22 analysis, that pass to Davis in the end zone should have been to the outside (if so, biggest error of the game was on Allen).  I don't know if that is correct, but if so, two biggest mistakes of the game were on JA.

[fridge]

Are there actually lunatics here that don't think Josh Allen is the best QB in franchise history? I'll just add this to the list of reasons why I only browse this site every few years. It's just inmates running wild and free with scissors in their hands.

[Rew]

While including all turnovers makes sense, any total turnover count still hides some data.  Using the same list that you provided, I tried to come up with a fair look at how likely someone is to turnover the ball and view on how likely they are to score a touchdown.  Basically, the combination of sacks/rushes/receptions turn into "other touches".  Fumble rate is lost fumbles on those touches.  turnover rate is ints and fumbles out of all plays where the QB didn't hand off the ball (throw/scramble/rush/receive).  touchdown rate is on the same basis as turnover rate.  This is still not perfect, as it doesn't account for kneeldowns and arm punts, but more complete then any of the other views bouncing around today.  I also wish I could find a publicly available breakdown of fumbles lost on sacks vs fumbles lost rushing, but no luck.

 

Out of this grouping of active players Allen is tasked with the 2nd highest total touch count (43 times per game). Allen is in the elite of the league (Rodgers/Mahomes/Allen) with how frequently their touches turn into touchdowns.  Allen's touches result in a turnover 2.4% of the time, which is on the higher end of the 2-2.5% grouping.  I ran numbers for a few other active players not on this list and they tend to be 2.5% on average with several in the 3-4% range and a few under 2%.  As an example of high turnovers on active players, Winston is at 3.7%.

 

In conclusion, Allen touches the ball more times per game than most active quarterbacks, he scores touchdowns at a frequency that puts him at an elite level, and he turns over the ball around league average but at a higher frequency than many of the other elite players.  In short, he is not at all representative of a "turnover machine", but he is also not a role model on elite ball security.

 

 

[Scott7975]

Just now, par73 said:

According to Marino's All-22 analysis, that pass to Davis in the end zone should have been to the outside (if so, biggest error of the game was on Allen).  I don't know if that is correct, but if so, two biggest mistakes of the game were on JA.

 

There are arguments both for and against that and no one truly knows.  There are guys that said Davis should have broke in. There are guys that said Davis should have turned and looked for the ball as soon as his man was beat. There are guys that said Allen was wrong.  No one knows but the Bills.

[par73]

Just now, Scott7975 said:

 

There are arguments both for and against that and no one truly knows.  There are guys that said Davis should have broke in. There are guys that said Davis should have turned and looked for the ball as soon as his man was beat. There are guys that said Allen was wrong.  No one knows but the Bills.

I know-- I am just citing Marino's analysis (don't know if it is right, or not).

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

6 minutes ago, par73 said:

According to Marino's All-22 analysis, that pass to Davis in the end zone should have been to the outside (if so, biggest error of the game was on Allen).  I don't know if that is correct, but if so, two biggest mistakes of the game were on JA.

I don’t really get why you would bring the sideline into play when you beat single coverage quick so I’m not sure I agree…just my two cents though could be meaningless 😂

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, fridge said:

Are there actually lunatics here that don't think Josh Allen is the best QB in franchise history? I'll just add this to the list of reasons why I only browse this site every few years. It's just inmates running wild and free with scissors in their hands.

Did anyone say that?

[Rew]

6 minutes ago, par73 said:

According to Marino's All-22 analysis, that pass to Davis in the end zone should have been to the outside (if so, biggest error of the game was on Allen).  I don't know if that is correct, but if so, two biggest mistakes of the game were on JA.

Not just Joe.  Multiple people would agree that if the play had time to develop that the "right" option was to the outside.  That doesn't mean it was an error by Allen.  The Zero Blitz didn't allow enough time to make the read.  Davis didn't realize that the play was a bust and didn't look back to see if the ball was coming hot.  Brady rightly stated that coaching  was the issue.  There should have been a true hot route that didn't rely on a long developing option.

[julian]

23 minutes ago, Rew said:

Not just Joe.  Multiple people would agree that if the play had time to develop that the "right" option was to the outside.  That doesn't mean it was an error by Allen.  The Zero Blitz didn't allow enough time to make the read.  Davis didn't realize that the play was a bust and didn't look back to see if the ball was coming hot.  Brady rightly stated that coaching  was the issue.  There should have been a true hot route that didn't rely on a long developing option.

Yeah I seen Mike Vick say that was on the Davis to recognize the zero blitz and get his head around immediately after beating his man, unfortunately he didn’t recognize it and just ran his corner route.

[Matt_In_NH]

3 hours ago, Rew said:

Not just Joe.  Multiple people would agree that if the play had time to develop that the "right" option was to the outside.  That doesn't mean it was an error by Allen.  The Zero Blitz didn't allow enough time to make the read.  Davis didn't realize that the play was a bust and didn't look back to see if the ball was coming hot.  Brady rightly stated that coaching  was the issue.  There should have been a true hot route that didn't rely on a long developing option.

I have seen multiple “experts” view it both ways.  Not sure who is right but Davis’s helmut slam might indicate who he thought was responsible.  

[racketmaster]

This Josh is a turnover machine narrative seems to familiar to the Josh is not accurate debate. Allen has never been a qb that pads or seems overly concerned with stats. If the situation allows for him to throw a Hail Mary at end of half, he does. If he feels the need to force a deep pass on a 3rd and 15, he does. I watch a lot of other qbs “protect” their stats by taking dump offs on 3rd and long and not risking the turnover. But with Allen, he regularly converts on third and longs by taking some risk. The turnover narrative seems blown out of proportion, especially when looking at the numbers the op displayed above. 

[BarleyNY]

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-ranking-the-nfls-top-12-most-valuable-quarterbacks-of-the-2023-season

 

“3. JOSH ALLEN, BUFFALO BILLS

Wins above replacement: 2.57

The primary reason why the Bills still have anyhope of success this season is that Allen is currently on pace for a career-high PFF passing grade. He has significantly reduced his turnover-worthy play rate, which now sits at 2.3%, with his previous career-best coming in at 3.2%.

Josh Allen: PFF grades and passing metrics since 2018 — available with PFF Premium Stats”

 

PFF has Allen ranked the third most valuable QB this season and with the lowest Turnover Worthy Play Rate of his career. I’ve heard them speak about that this season and they have talked about how unlucky he has been in that regard. At one point he had 12 TOW plays and 13 TOs. They compared that to CJ Stroud who at the time also had the same 12 TOW plays, but only 2 TOs.

 

While I’m certain that there’s some bad luck involved, I think Allen is also getting baited into some predictable throws - notably the “honey hole” shot vs Cover 2. I’m not sure how much is on Allen versus his OC, but either way that’s something that he/they can clean up. 

[BigDingus]

I don't know what there is to address. You're preaching to the choir here. Bills fans are going to have Josh's back.

 

But you aren't going to change the reputation he's earned with fans of other teams & most of the media. 

 

I spend way too much time on various NFL circles online, whether it be reddit, Twitter, YouTube comments, etc. & it feels like I'm fighting a losing battle against an overwhelming public opinion that he's a "turnover machine."

 

This really became a big narrative last year, and week 1 of this season solidified it in many people's eyes. He's got to be the one that changes that perception now. Us Bills fans aren't convincing anyone.

[Matt_In_NH]

The OP here has a far superior and subjective view on this than the "I only care about INT's unless total touchdowns make my store better then total touchdowns can be discussed but under no circumstances are fumbles lost allowed to be discussed" thread.   I think it is fair to take Josh's first two years out because he made such a dramatic change and has maintained that since.

[34-78-83]

12 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

That version of himself, yes. We may have only seen that version 3-4 times ever though? Because his physical talent is the greatest the league has ever seen, him playing at his best would naturally be the best QB the league has ever seen. I believe his play against the Eagles was that version of himself.

 

We first saw it on the final game of his rookie year, home vs. Miami

 

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=bills+games+2018#sie=m;/g/11f5hkyby3;6;/m/059yj;overview;fp;1;;;

Edited November 30, 2023 by 34-78-83

[transplantbillsfan]

17 hours ago, FireChans said:

So here's my response to @Alphadawg7's analysis which was hyper-focused on solely interceptions.

 

We are gonna look at QB's since 2018 (since Josh entered the league) and analyze the TD:TO ratio

 

Aaron Rodgers

4.3 (!)

 

Patrick Mahomes

3.2

Russell Wilson

2.9

 

Tom Brady

2.73

 

Justin Herbert

2.65

 

Jalen Hurts

2.5

 

Deshaun Watson

2.43

 

Joe Burrow

2.27

 

Kirk Cousins

2.24

 

Lamar Jackson

2.23

 

Dak Prescott

2.23

 

Josh Allen

2.18

 

Ryan Tannehill

2.09

 

Matt Stafford

1.79

 

Jared Goff

1.64

 

Matt Ryan

1.64

 

Derek Carr

1.5

 

So what does this tell us?  Josh's counting numbers are elite, but on a TD:TO ratio, he's near the bottom rung of the upper echelon QB's in the NFL today.

 

Now, some of these QB's are trending downward significantly from who or what they were 4-5 years ago, namely Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson.   But, IMO, this supports the narrative that Josh Allen is almost as much of a TO machine as he is a TD machine.

 

 

But people have never talked about Goff, Stafford, Carr, Ryan, Prescott, Cousins, Lamar or Burrow as turnover machines.

 

All those QBs have about the same statistical tendency to turn the ball over as Josh with Stafford, Ryan, Goff and Carr being pretty significantly worse and Prescott, Cousins, Lamar and Burrow almost negligibly better.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

7 hours ago, racketmaster said:

This Josh is a turnover machine narrative seems to familiar to the Josh is not accurate debate. Allen has never been a qb that pads or seems overly concerned with stats. If the situation allows for him to throw a Hail Mary at end of half, he does. If he feels the need to force a deep pass on a 3rd and 15, he does. I watch a lot of other qbs “protect” their stats by taking dump offs on 3rd and long and not risking the turnover. But with Allen, he regularly converts on third and longs by taking some risk. The turnover narrative seems blown out of proportion, especially when looking at the numbers the op displayed above. 

I’m getting pretty tired of the narrative and I might take a rainy day to go through actual impactful ints for each qb.  Per attempt I guarantee tua and hurts are much higher and some other guys you wouldn’t even expect are probably higher also 

 

feels like a bunch of Josh’s this year have been on arm punts/a Hail Mary 

 

 

[Low Positive]

6 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

But people have never talked about Goff, Stafford, Carr, Ryan, Prescott, Cousins, Lamar or Burrow as turnover machines.

 

All those QBs have about the same statistical tendency to turn the ball over as Josh with Stafford, Ryan, Goff and Carr being pretty significantly worse and Prescott, Cousins, Lamar and Burrow almost negligibly better.

People talk about Dak's INTs all the time. 

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

But people have never talked about Goff, Stafford, Carr, Ryan, Prescott, Cousins, Lamar or Burrow as turnover machines.

 

All those QBs have about the same statistical tendency to turn the ball over as Josh with Stafford, Ryan, Goff and Carr being pretty significantly worse and Prescott, Cousins, Lamar and Burrow almost negligibly better.

Ball security with Goff is a huge sticking point. That man has tiny hands. He had multiple fumbles on TG and lost them the game.

 

Prescott was an INT machine last season and it was a huge narrative.

 

Stafford is also a TO machine, it was also a narrative about if he could win a Super Bowl leading the league in INT’s after the trade.

 

Lamar has a lower overall TO number but his TD number isn’t that good, since 2020.

 

I don’t have the standard deviation ready to argue if the differences in these numbers are “negligible” or “about the same.”

[Westside]

17 hours ago, Success said:

'kay.  I actually like the other thread better.

 

Yeah, this thread is a turnover machine!