Addressing the "Josh Allen is TO machine" narrative

[90sBills]

4 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

It’s post year one for both. If you think it will change that much if we exclude a playoff season in 2019 I encourage you to run the numbers. 

Surely Allen and the Bills have done better than Mahomes and the Chiefs the last three years. What with all the MVP’s and SuperBowl troph…oh wait. 

[Mikie2times]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I'd be more interested in how those stack up to league averages tbh

 

 

Deflect  

[Scott7975]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

It means that my expectations are higher for him to not throw a back-breaking pick than for Tyler Bass not getting a kick blocked.

 

Hurts turned the ball over twice. Josh's int wasn't back breaking. Two drives later he gave the go ahead TD with < 2 minutes left in the game.  By definition that is not backbreaking.

 

Tyler Bass missed two FGs not just one.  Josh got us in position to make those.  Bass has been missing all year long.  He is one of the highest paid kickers in the league and one of the worst kickers this year.

Edited November 30, 2023 by Scott7975

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Hurts turned the ball over twice. Josh's int wasn't back breaking. Two drives later he gave the go ahead TD with < 2 minutes left in the game.  By definition that is not backbreaking.

Hurts won the game,

 

If Hurts didn't, his TO's would've been a big reason why.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Mikie2times said:

Deflect  

No, this is how you use data

And now QBwinz 😂😂 I'll see myself out

[Scott7975]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Hurts won the game,

 

If Hurts didn't, his TO's would've been a big reason why.

 

Did you watch the pathetic field goal drive?  I could have won that game.  Josh was the best player on the field in this game and probably the best player in the NFL that week.  Your expectations are too high if you don't expect a mistake when he drops back 60 times and passes the ball 51 times.

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Did you watch the pathetic field goal drive?  I could have won that game.  Josh was the best player on the field in this game and probably the best player in the NFL that week.  Your expectations are too high if you don't expect a mistake when he drops back 60 times and passes the ball 51 times.

He was probably the best player on the field. He could've been better, and I believe if he was, we would've won. Especially against arguably the worst passing defense in the NFL.

 

If that's too high of expectations to you, that's fair.

[BuffaloRebound]

2 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Did you watch the pathetic field goal drive?  I could have won that game.  Josh was the best player on the field in this game and probably the best player in the NFL that week.  Your expectations are too high if you don't expect a mistake when he drops back 60 times and passes the ball 51 times.

Agreed.  If teams traded kickers, Bills win by 2 scores.  

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Agreed.  If teams traded kickers, Bills win by 2 scores.  

If teams trade QBs eagles win by 40

[Mikie2times]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

No, this is how you use data

And now QBwinz 😂😂 I'll see myself out

Bills are 33-3 since 2020 when they allow under 20 points.  They're 11-8 with 20-30 points allowed and 2-7 above 30. 

 

So to be clear with how I view QB stats Allen is 13-15 if the defense allows more than the league average. 

 

Let me know what other requests you have. 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Bills are 33-3 since 2020 when they allow under 20 points.  They're 11-8 with 20-30 points allowed and 2-7 above 30. 

 

So to be clear with how I view QB stats Allen is 13-15 if the defense allows more than the league average. 

 

Let me know what other requests you have. 

Just how that stacks up against the rest of the league if you have the time👍👍

[Warcodered]

10 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Hurts won the game,

 

If Hurts didn't, his TO's would've been a big reason why.

Unless his kicker missed that ridiculous level of difficulty kick that got them into OT, I mean he didn't even get them into good FG position.

[Success]

18 minutes ago, FireChans said:

It means that my expectations are higher for him to not throw a back-breaking pick than for Tyler Bass not getting a kick blocked.

 

I didn't see it as a back-breaking pick.  I actually can't believe how much is being made of that pick.

 

We took the lead again after that.  The level of play outside of that ONE PICK was outstanding.  

 

I watch KC games and see Mahomes throw similar picks, and they don't always = losses.  I get holding JA to a high standard because of his contract.  But "perfect" is a bit too high of a standard.

 

Edited November 30, 2023 by Success

[Allen2Moulds]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

So here's my response to @Alphadawg7's analysis which was hyper-focused on solely interceptions.

 

We are gonna look at QB's since 2018 (since Josh entered the league) and analyze the TD:TO ratio

 

Aaron Rodgers

4.3 (!)

 

Patrick Mahomes

3.2

Russell Wilson

2.9

 

Tom Brady

2.73

 

Justin Herbert

2.65

 

Jalen Hurts

2.5

 

Deshaun Watson

2.43

 

Joe Burrow

2.27

 

Kirk Cousins

2.24

 

Lamar Jackson

2.23

 

Dak Prescott

2.23

 

Josh Allen

2.18

 

Ryan Tannehill

2.09

 

Matt Stafford

1.79

 

Jared Goff

1.64

 

Matt Ryan

1.64

 

Derek Carr

1.5

 

So what does this tell us?  Josh's counting numbers are elite, but on a TD:TO ratio, he's near the bottom rung of the upper echelon QB's in the NFL today.

 

Now, some of these QB's are trending downward significantly from who or what they were 4-5 years ago, namely Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson.   But, IMO, this supports the narrative that Josh Allen is almost as much of a TO machine as he is a TD machine.

 

Not to make excuses, but up until this year, Josh has been our running game. I think the best measure is passing TDs vs. Interceptions, if we're trying to compare him to other passers. That being said, I'm ok with the risk vs. reward here. On 3rd and 21, Josh will rather throw a ball 40 yds down field even if it's picked. I love Josh's attitude to play to win, and not to protect his stats. In comparison, when I watch Rodgers, I think he's become a total image guy, and fails to take risks. This has lead to a lot of early playoff exits in GB. I've seen a fair amount of this. Except for this year under Dorsey, I never watched Allen with the fear of him turning the ball over, because I know that at the most critical times, he's great at protecting the ball. However, this never really gets discussed. Let's see the breakdown by quarter, and I'm willing to bet those numbers are substantially lower in the 4th Quarter.

[Mikie2times]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Just how that stacks up against the rest of the league if you have the time👍👍

Mahomes is 30-15 in the same clip. It's on you to chase gooses.

[Mikie2times]

5 minutes ago, Allen2Moulds said:

Not to make excuses, but up until this year, Josh has been our running game. I think the best measure is passing TDs vs. Interceptions, if we're trying to compare him to other passers. That being said, I'm ok with the risk vs. reward here. On 3rd and 21, Josh will rather throw a ball 40 yds down field even if it's picked. I love Josh's attitude to play to win, and not to protect his stats. In comparison, when I watch Rodgers, I think he's become a total image guy, and fails to take risks. This has lead to a lot of early playoff exits in GB. I've seen a fair amount of this. Except for this year under Dorsey, I never watched Allen with the fear of him turning the ball over, because I know that at the most critical times, he's great at protecting the ball. However, this never really gets discussed. Let's see the breakdown by quarter, and I'm willing to bet those numbers are substantially lower in the 4th Quarter.

[FireChans]

Just now, Success said:

 

I didn't see it as a back-breaking pick.  I actually can't believe how much is being made of that pick.

 

We took the lead again after that.  The level of play outside of that ONE PICK was outstanding.  

 

I watch KC games and see Mahomes throw similar picks, and thy don't always = losses.  I get holding JA to a high standard because of his contract.  But "perfect" is a bit too high of a standard.

 

It wasn't just not perfect, imo.  Our only chance in that game was to keep scoring. If Josh missed a throw, sure, yeah it happens. A pick there basically cut our win probability in half.

 

If you want to compare Josh/Mahomes, here's one.

 

The Bills are 1-6 in 2023 when our defense allows 20 or more.

 

The Chiefs are 2-3 in 2023 when their defense allows 20 or more.

 

2022

Bills 6-3

Chiefs 9-3

 

2021

Bills 3-4

Chiefs 4-5

 

2020

Bills 6-3

Chiefs 8-2

10 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Just how that stacks up against the rest of the league if you have the time👍👍

The standard should be like playoff rivals no?  Better than league average sounds like a "happy with McD making the playoffs" type stat.

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

So here's my response to @Alphadawg7's analysis which was hyper-focused on solely interceptions.

 

We are gonna look at QB's since 2018 (since Josh entered the league) and analyze the TD:TO ratio

 

Aaron Rodgers

4.3 (!)

 

Patrick Mahomes

3.2

Russell Wilson

2.9

 

Tom Brady

2.73

 

Justin Herbert

2.65

 

Jalen Hurts

2.5

 

Deshaun Watson

2.43

 

Joe Burrow

2.27

 

Kirk Cousins

2.24

 

Lamar Jackson

2.23

 

Dak Prescott

2.23

 

Josh Allen

2.18

 

Ryan Tannehill

2.09

 

Matt Stafford

1.79

 

Jared Goff

1.64

 

Matt Ryan

1.64

 

Derek Carr

1.5

 

So what does this tell us?  Josh's counting numbers are elite, but on a TD:TO ratio, he's near the bottom rung of the upper echelon QB's in the NFL today.

 

Now, some of these QB's are trending downward significantly from who or what they were 4-5 years ago, namely Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson.   But, IMO, this supports the narrative that Josh Allen is almost as much of a TO machine as he is a TD machine.

 

 

Lost in this is that Josh Allen started his career off as RAW college prospect, forced to start game 1, with no talent around for 2 years on a franchise that was gutting its roster and cap space for a rebuild.  

 

His TD to Turnover ratio was 1.74 for 2018-2019 which drags his career number down and doesn't reflect the player he became.  From 2020 on he above Burrow who started his career off with Tee Higgins and Chase after coming from a big college program, with better coaching, and more ready to play.

 

[FireChans]

10 minutes ago, Allen2Moulds said:

Not to make excuses, but up until this year, Josh has been our running game. I think the best measure is passing TDs vs. Interceptions, if we're trying to compare him to other passers. That being said, I'm ok with the risk vs. reward here. On 3rd and 21, Josh will rather throw a ball 40 yds down field even if it's picked. I love Josh's attitude to play to win, and not to protect his stats. In comparison, when I watch Rodgers, I think he's become a total image guy, and fails to take risks. This has lead to a lot of early playoff exits in GB. I've seen a fair amount of this. Except for this year under Dorsey, I never watched Allen with the fear of him turning the ball over, because I know that at the most critical times, he's great at protecting the ball. However, this never really gets discussed. Let's see the breakdown by quarter, and I'm willing to bet those numbers are substantially lower in the 4th Quarter.

This season Josh has:

 

2 INT's in 1st Q

6 INT's in 2nd Q

2 INT's in 3rd Q

3 INT's in 4th Q.

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Lost in this is that Josh Allen started his career off as RAW college prospect, forced to start game 1, with no talent around for 2 years on a franchise that was gutting its roster and cap space for a rebuild.  

 

His TD to Turnover ratio was 1.74 for 2018-2019 which drags his career number down and doesn't reflect the player he became.  From 2020 on he above Burrow who started his career off with Tee Higgins and Chase after coming from a big college program, with better coaching, and more ready to play.

 

The Bengals were 2-14 when they drafted Burrow.