Road to the Playoffs

[Governor]

5 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Jags blowing 2 down the stretch is pretty unlikely but it would be a huge boost to our wildcard odds too…losing to the bucs would really make them sweat out those last two games.  Jags losing two would get us from coin flip at best with 10 wins to very likely in with 10 wins 

 

They look uncharacteristically shaky all of a sudden. Could happen.

Edited December 18, 2023 by Governor

[steven50]

all that needs to happen now is the dolphins lose a game to either the ravens or the cowboys (very likely) and we take care of business against chargers, patriots and them.

[Nelius]

James Cook - 221 all purpose yards and 2 TDs, one on the ground and one through the air

 

I feel like people are downplaying this. This is not just some smiley head nod running back performance. There is no other back in the AFC doing this. This feels like a Priest Holmes / Jamal Lewis level splash. Let James Cook indeed

[Kgun5]

Here’s a more sober look at us at 10-7:

 

Go to the ESPN playoff machine.

Set the criteria to winning %, (resolve ties however you’d like). This gives the Bills a 10-7 record with our loss being to Miami.

Try to find a realistic game to flip, (other than ours), that gets us in. Your only chance is Denver losing to one of the weaklings they play.

 

Edited December 18, 2023 by Kgun5
Clarity

[Einstein]

7 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Jags blowing 2 down the stretch is pretty unlikely but it would be a huge boost to our wildcard odds too…losing to the bucs would really make them sweat out those last two games.  Jags losing two would get us from coin flip at best with 10 wins to very likely in with 10 wins 

 

 

Jags only need to lose 1 of their next 3 (TB, CAR, TEN). Not 2.

 

[Process]

If Vikings and Titans don't blow two score leads Bills are in a playoff spot right now and probably a lock 🤦‍♂️

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, Kgun5 said:

Here’s a more sober look at us at 10-7:

 

Go to the ESPN playoff machine.

Set the criteria to winning %, (resolve ties however you’d like). This gives the Bills a 10-7 record with our loss being to Miami.

Try to find a realistic game to flip, (other than ours), that gets us in. Your only chance is Denver losing to one of the weaklings they play.

 

 

Honestly, i thought the Broncos were quite a bit better than they appear to be now. That was a bad loss on Saturday. Certainly seems likely the Broncos will finish the season 2-1 here on out. Just don't know which team it will be that they lose to. 

[zow2]

6 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Honestly, i thought the Broncos were quite a bit better than they appear to be now. That was a bad loss on Saturday. Certainly seems likely the Broncos will finish the season 2-1 here on out. Just don't know which team it will be that they lose to. 

 

I think the Raiders have a good chance to beat Indy and Denver at the end of this season.  LV has found something.  The O'Connell kid is playing well,  they have confidence and the D has been really good.  Antonio Pierce wants the gig full time. 

[Drew21PA]

Bills gotta win out…have to

 

i don’t trust these other teams to “help”

[Billsatlastin2018]

11 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Where am I wrong.

Win out and have the Fish lose one of the next 2 weeks. 
 

The 🦬 MUST win the Division!

 

All the rest is coin tossing gibberish.

[TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th]

In case it hasn't already been mentioned,  the bills are Officially out of the running for the #1 seed. Even If the bills and ravens finish tied at 11-6 , they will have the same conference record but the ravens will have a better record vs. Common opponents. 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Just hope somehow that Dolphin game is winner Div, loser WC. I don’t care how we get in or what the seed is or where we have to play. Just find a way to sneak in. But if that Dolphin game is loose and we are out, I don’t like that. That’s a very nervous energy in a league where anything can happen on a track that team is super comfortable on. Maybe the Falcons can catch a lucky one this weekend. At some point the colts have to fall on the wrong end of one of these

[SCBills]

10 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Just hope somehow that Dolphin game is winner Div, loser WC. I don’t care how we get in or what the seed is or where we have to play. Just find a way to sneak in. But if that Dolphin game is loose and we are out, I don’t like that. That’s a very nervous energy in a league where anything can happen on a track that team is super comfortable on. Maybe the Falcons can catch a lucky one this weekend. At some point the colts have to fall on the wrong end of one of these

 

The way this plays out, it seems like there's two scenarios:

 

The game is for the division, and potentially (maybe likely) the loser is out.

 

OR

 

Dolphins win the next two and have nothing to play for against us. 

 

 

Edited December 18, 2023 by SCBills

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

The way this plays out, it seems like there's two scenarios:

 

The game is for the division, and potentially (maybe likely) the loser is out.

 

OR

 

Dolphins win the next two and have nothing to play for against us. 

 

 

I think the chiefs are gonna be the problem on that final point…they’d have to drop one also because they have the h2h against the dolphins and should win out

 

Baltimore probably will lose to SF and if they lose to Miami too they wouldn’t be an issue 

[Success]

4 hours ago, Kgun5 said:

Here’s a more sober look at us at 10-7:

 

Go to the ESPN playoff machine.

Set the criteria to winning %, (resolve ties however you’d like). This gives the Bills a 10-7 record with our loss being to Miami.

Try to find a realistic game to flip, (other than ours), that gets us in. Your only chance is Denver losing to one of the weaklings they play.

 

 

I mean, Denver could lose out.  They're on the same level as the teams they're playing (Pats, Chargers, Raiders).

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

6 minutes ago, Success said:

 

I mean, Denver could lose out.  They're on the same level as the teams they're playing (Pats, Chargers, Raiders).

 

This seems like the part people haven’t wrapped their heads around lol. These wildcard competitor teams could literally lose to anyone.  Its why the Steelers went from 6-3 to 7-7 

[TheWei44]

My best guess re the Miami game is that it will in fact be for the division (b/c I see Miami losing at least 1 of next 2), and if the Bills lose in Miami, we'll have a chance to get in as WC in one of those if A + B happens or if C + D + E happens, etc.  

[Gregg]

I think Dallas beats Miami. They are pissed off and still have a very good team. When they lost to SF, they then went on a 5-game winning streak. 

[zow2]

I feel like more than a few OT games have worked against the Bills (in addition to their own losses).  Not as many as i thought but here's the list of OT games involving AFC playoff hopefuls.  I think OT results are bit of random luck to be honest (or being unlucky).  

 

Week 1  Jets defeat Bills 22-16

Week 2  Titans defeat Chargers 27-24

Week 3  Colts defeat Ravens 22-19

Week 4  Rams defeat Colts 29-23

Week 12  Eagles defeat Bills 37-34

Week 13  Colts defeat Titans 31-28

Week 13  Bengals defeat Jags 34-31

Week 14  Ravens defeat Rams 37-31

Week 15  Bengals defeat Vikings 27-24

Week 15  Texans defeat Titans 19-16

[mannc]

For the first time in a while, the Bills’ betting odds to make the playoffs are significantly better than their chance of missing out, by about 2 to 1, on FanDuel.

[dakrider]

40 minutes ago, TheWei44 said:

My best guess re the Miami game is that it will in fact be for the division (b/c I see Miami losing at least 1 of next 2), and if the Bills lose in Miami, we'll have a chance to get in as WC in one of those if A + B happens or if C + D + E happens, etc.  

If Bills win next two and of course Miami loses one of their next two, then Bills game in Miami would be for the AFC East Division.

If Bills lose that game, they could potentially not get in playoffs at all.  If Bills win that game, their likely the 4th seed and I think a strong possibility Miami gets in as top wildcard team and they have to go to Buffalo that next week.  Is tough to beat a team 3 times in one season, especially back to back. 
AND, if the Bills get in and win their first playoff game, there's a good chance they would have to go to Baltimore that next week, AND if they win that a good chance would have to play AFC Championship game in KC.  Regardless, Bills have a hell of a tough road ahead of them. 
Right now just need to win these next 2 games and go from there.

[zow2]

1 minute ago, dakrider said:

If Bills win next two and of course Miami loses one of their next two, then Bills game in Miami would be for the AFC East Division.

If Bills lose that game, they could potentially not get in playoffs at all.  If Bills win that game, their likely the 4th seed and I think a strong possibility Miami gets in as top wildcard team and they have to go to Buffalo that next week.  Is tough to beat a team 3 times in one season, especially back to back. 
AND, if the Bills get in and win their first playoff game, there's a good chance they would have to go to Baltimore that next week, AND if they win that a good chance would have to play AFC Championship game in KC.  Regardless, Bills have a hell of a tough road ahead of them. 
Right now just need to win these next 2 games and go from there.

 

Normally i would hate playing Miami 3 times in a season but hey, if they run the table and beat the Phins twice and get in, I'll take my chances.

 

There was also a scenario i saw that would place Buffalo at KC in round one.  Ugh.  Talk about rough. Having to beat those guys twice in Arrowhead within 5 weeks or so?!?  

 

There's no easy road.  Just get in and plow through everyone.

 

 

[Success]

So many close results this past weekend.  I still can't believe Minny couldn't pick up less than a foot with 2 downs, and that the Hail Mary ball bounced right off the Bears' players chest.  

 

[mjt328]

To win the AFC East: 

Win our last 3 games (Chargers, Patriots, Dolphins), and hope the Dolphins drop one to either the Cowboys or Ravens.

 

If we drop one along the way, things are looking very iffy.  We would need some help.

 

I'm going to assume the Ravens and Chiefs win their divisions (very likely).  I'm also penciling-in the Browns for one of the Wild Card slots.

That leaves the Steelers, Bengals, Broncos, along with the Jaguars, Texans and Colts.  Six teams in total.

Someone is going to win the South.  Of the other five teams, we need four of them to end up with eight losses.

 

Steelers (7):  CIN, SEA, BAL = Tough schedule.  Seems pretty likely to drop-off.

Broncos (7):  NE, LAC, LAV = Only need to drop one more, but such an easy schedule.

Bengals (6):  PIT, KC, CLE = Love the Chiefs in here.  Not crazy about Steelers pulling off an upset.  Browns are 50/50 here.

Colts (6):  ATL, LAV, HOU = Falcons could win here.  Raiders probably not.  Someone needs to lose between Texans/Colts.

Texans (6):  CLE, TEN, IND = Pulling for the Browns down the stretch.  Titans should have finished yesterday.  See above with Colts.

Jaguars (6):  TB, CAR, TEN = Bucs could give them a run.  The others seem easy.

 

[transplantbillsfan]

10 hours ago, Kgun5 said:

Here’s a more sober look at us at 10-7:

 

Go to the ESPN playoff machine.

Set the criteria to winning %, (resolve ties however you’d like). This gives the Bills a 10-7 record with our loss being to Miami.

Try to find a realistic game to flip, (other than ours), that gets us in. Your only chance is Denver losing to one of the weaklings they play.

 

 

Any team losing to anyone this year is realistic if you've been watching the NFL in 2023

[Virgil]

Just played around with the playoff machine.  For this next week, as far as I can tell, if the Steelers beat the Bengals, the Bills would be in the playoffs for the week.   No matter who else wins or loses (the Bills need to win obviously), the Bills are good to go.  

 

Now, they can fall out in the following weeks if other teams win, and the Steelers beating anyone right now is a tall order, but it's good to see how close it really is

[zow2]

It’s Mason Rudolph time in Pittsburgh. 

Dallas is going to give Miami a very tough game this weekend.  They won’t roll over again. Something to prove and they have life for their Division.

[Punch]

16 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Just played around with the playoff machine.  For this next week, as far as I can tell, if the Steelers beat the Bengals, the Bills would be in the playoffs for the week.   No matter who else wins or loses (the Bills need to win obviously), the Bills are good to go.  

 

 

13 minutes ago, zow2 said:

It’s Mason Rudolph time in Pittsburgh. 

Dallas is going to give Miami a very tough game this weekend.  They won’t roll over again. Something to prove and they have life for their Division.

 

Edited December 19, 2023 by Punch

[Virgil]

1 minute ago, Punch said:

 

 

I don't think it can be much worse than with Mitch at the helm.  I'm going to rely on the game being in Pitt and their defense bouncing back.  But who knows.

 

I think Dallas is going to rebound in a huge way against Miami and absolutely destroy them

 

With that being said, my teenage self is throwing up at the idea of rooting for Pitt and Dallas this weekend

[Punch]

Just now, Virgil said:

the idea of rooting for Pitt and Dallas

 

[IronyAbounds]

 I can't think of a more odious outcome than to lose out to Denver for a playoff spot. That would take the 12 man fiasco to a higher level.

Edited December 19, 2023 by IronyAbounds
added a word

[Governor]

13 minutes ago, IronyAbounds said:

 I can't think of a more odious outcome than to lose out to Denver for a playoff spot. That would take the 12 man fiasco to a higher level.

It felt that way when it happened so it wouldn’t surprise me one bit.

[Drew21PA]

18 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

This seems like the part people haven’t wrapped their heads around lol. These wildcard competitor teams could literally lose to anyone.  Its why the Steelers went from 6-3 to 7-7 

I did agree with that back in week 5

 

not now

 

civnci Cleveland colts are on a roll

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

3 hours ago, Drew21PA said:

I did agree with that back in week 5

 

not now

 

civnci Cleveland colts are on a roll

Cleveland got obliterated by the rams and just snuck by the bears in their last 3

 

cincy was fortunate to beat a bad Vikings team that wasted dozens of opportunities to win the game 

 

colts just snuck by the titans then got humiliated by the bengals but had a good game against the Mitch trubisky Steelers who are horrible 

 

of the 3 cincy looks the most like the part but they’ve got a game against kc left and are even with us in record.  I’m not sure how I feel about them vs pit if Pickett plays either 

Edited December 19, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[zow2]

Every season you see teams with absolutely nothing to play for beat better teams late that have everything on the line.  It will happen this year too and Buffalo needs to be on high alert.  

 

That being said, looking at some of the teams we're rooting for.  Las Vegas is feeling much better about themselves.  The O'Connell kid, WR's and their D have found something.  They will beat Indy or Denver or maybe both.  Antonio Pierce wants that job.  This is not a great time to play the Raiders.

 

Atlanta is going back to Heinicke,  They aren't folding up.  He's better than Ridder and should be a big challenge for Indy.

 

Tennessee just played an OT game vs Houston.  Need Levis to step up and play better.  Just don't know what you're getting out of that rook.  I doubt they beat the Jags.

 

The Steelers are cooked and doubt they beat Cincinnati but who knows, it is a division game.  The Bengals will not win at KC.  No way do the Chiefs lose 4 regular season games at Arrowhead.  Just NOT HAPPENING.  So that will give the Bengals 7 losses.

 

We need to be Browns fans... they need to beat Houston and Cinci.  C'mon Flacco! 

 

New England plays a role since they are at Denver.  Doubt they win there but it is the hoodie and he's gotten his club to rise up and bite Buffalo when we didn't expect it.

 

Anyone who loses to the Jets, Panthers or Chargers don't deserve playoffs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mjt328]

5 hours ago, zow2 said:

Every season you see teams with absolutely nothing to play for beat better teams late that have everything on the line.  It will happen this year too and Buffalo needs to be on high alert.  

 

That being said, looking at some of the teams we're rooting for.  Las Vegas is feeling much better about themselves.  The O'Connell kid, WR's and their D have found something.  They will beat Indy or Denver or maybe both.  Antonio Pierce wants that job.  This is not a great time to play the Raiders.

 

Atlanta is going back to Heinicke,  They aren't folding up.  He's better than Ridder and should be a big challenge for Indy.

 

Tennessee just played an OT game vs Houston.  Need Levis to step up and play better.  Just don't know what you're getting out of that rook.  I doubt they beat the Jags.

 

The Steelers are cooked and doubt they beat Cincinnati but who knows, it is a division game.  The Bengals will not win at KC.  No way do the Chiefs lose 4 regular season games at Arrowhead.  Just NOT HAPPENING.  So that will give the Bengals 7 losses.

 

We need to be Browns fans... they need to beat Houston and Cinci.  C'mon Flacco! 

 

New England plays a role since they are at Denver.  Doubt they win there but it is the hoodie and he's gotten his club to rise up and bite Buffalo when we didn't expect it.

 

Anyone who loses to the Jets, Panthers or Chargers don't deserve playoffs.

 

 

Steelers have a tough couple games with Seattle and Baltimore, and are already at 7 losses.  They are the most likely to get knocked out.  I'm really not worried about them at all.

 

All the others, it's much harder to see this working out for the Bills.

Raiders, Browns, Titans and Falcons can do a lot to help us out in the coming weeks.

 

 

 

[fergie's ire]

I haven't read through all of this to see if it's been posted but the simplest breakdown seems to be the Bills are in if they win out and either the Jaguars OR Bengals lose at least one game, OR if the Dolphins lose at least one of the next two.  In the last case the Bills win the division AND if the Chiefs and Jaguars both lose one more game in addition to the Dolphins losing one of the next two, PLUS the Colts and Texans each losing at least one more, the Bills would get the 2 seed.  Doesn't seem likely the Chiefs would lose one of the games they have left but it's certainly very possible.

[JoshAllin]

so if the phins win the next two, and bills win out they're pretty much 100% in, and in this  scenario you want bal losing to sf, and kc dropping one so mia clinches the 1 spot

Edited December 19, 2023 by motorj

[zow2]

Just let me know the scenario where:

 

a) Buffalo is in 

b) We avoid KC and Cinci until the AFC Championship

c) We don’t have to beat Miami for a 3rd time in the first game

 

All that and i’m good 😆

[Success]

Bills/Niners in the SB.  Bills win, 31-20.

 

You're welcome..

 

Edited December 19, 2023 by Success