Shotgun at the 1 Yard Line

[Franco_92]

12 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Shotgun dart. Shart. Sounds about right.

 

From now on, I will call that play the Shart.

Again, we have run that play INCREDIBLY well. I can probably  pull 20 examples of getting 5+ yards on it in the last few weeks. And then faking it on RPOs were everyone's favorite Davis plays against Tampa, faking it to run Josh scored us a TD against Miami etc. It is foolish to hate this play lol they DOMINATE with it. Our tackles love to pull in the run game. The play is in shotgun so they have room to do it.

 

So answer the question, then - if logic dictates it's better to get a head start, why does the data show it's worse at scoring touchdowns from the 1 yard line? what's the disconnect? There are clearly details that your analysis doesn't consider. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

21 minutes ago, Franco_92 said:

Sneaks have hurt Mahomes, Lance and Purdy I believe in recent years, off the top of my head. It's not a risk free play. There are many factors the coaches consider that fans can't acknowledge because we don't know what they are, in addition to injury concerns. The coaches don't just forget that this play is in the playbook, and they are not dumb, and they especially aren't dumber than Bills internet rabble, and yet they sometimes don't run this play. I bet part of it is Allen's general discomfort under center, and a recent history of shaky snap transactions under center. Allen fumbled at least 3 of these in fairly big moments last year.

Providing one off examples dont prove your point.  I could also use Tom Brady and an example, one of the most prolific runner of QB sneaks that not once was ever hurt.  Good example but doesnt prove my point nor do your examples prove the contra.  And try Lance was hurt on a power run, not a QB sneak.

[Franco_92]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Every team and situation is different.  And when you have Josh Allen on your team, statistically it is incorrect to hand the ball off to an aging RB 5-6 yards deep than to let Josh sneak it in.  This is a statistical mistake 100% of the time, regardless if the shotgun run works or not and regardless if the QB sneak play works or not.  100% of the time you run out of shotgun over letting Allen sneak it from inside the 1 is a statistical mistake.  

I understand and have emphasized that these decisions need to consider what your team is good at. 

The Bills are an elite red zone team. 

 

My last few posts have been discussing philosophy of shotgun runs from the one and elsewhere in general, not what the Bills should do - I agree that the Bills should sneak from the one, and I think they should also pass more from under center when they do decide to pass there as well. This comes from Bills data.

3 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Providing one off examples dont prove your point.  I could also use Tom Brady and an example, one of the most prolific runner of QB sneaks that not once was ever hurt.  Good example but doesnt prove my point nor do your examples prove the contra.  And try Lance was hurt on a power run, not a QB sneak.

Lol what is my point? My point is that fans making blanket statements and present them as the only correct option and declare our OC ret@rded probably aren't as nuanced as they think they are. 

Edited November 3, 2023 by Franco_92

[Charles Romes]

“1 yard line” encompasses a huge range of distances. Can mean 1 mm to almost four and a half feet. 

Edited November 3, 2023 by Charles Romes

[RoyBatty is alive]

14 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

If your objective is to not have your QB hit, running a sneak is not a good play.  I don't know how to dumb this down any more for you.

 

Everyone in the FO wants to extend Josh's career.  Having him get hit less was thought to be a good way to do that.  They have been executing that strategy.

 

 

Look up the data or keep spewing the same mantra.  Yes you want to limit QB hits, dah, but sneaks are are not full speed nfl collisions, they are very slow and are very safe, much safer than normal qb play, as I wrote injury's percentage is counter-intuitive, believe it or not, but if it make you feel better to try to denigrate me as you cant "dumb this down any more for:" me, that is your problem..

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

2 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Look up the data or keep spewing the same mantra.  Yes you want to limit QB hits, dah, but sneaks are are not full speed nfl collisions, they are very slow and are very safe, much safer than normal qb play, as I wrote injury's percentage is counter-intuitive, believe it or not, but if it make you feel better to try to denigrate me as you cant "dumb this down any more for:" me, that is your problem..

 

First, you started the snark with your "Do you know how to look it up" bit.

 

And yes, I find the idea that a QB sneak is safer than the QB handing the ball off not only to be counter-intuitive, but also not to be true.

[Orlando Tim]

I actually don't mind shotgun at the 1 with a couple of caveats: 1) we spread them out and make it impossible to just stuff everyone inside 2) if they stuff everyone inside we have a play for a quick throw to whoever is gonna be open. But a shotgun play where we simply have a slow hitter to the middle is dumb. 

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, Franco_92 said:

 the play everyone calls "shotgun draw" is dart, which we run very successfully and which sets up everyone's favorite RPOs that we gash teams with.

People do make this mistake often but we did not run dart on 3rd and 1 against Tampa. 

[Franco_92]

Just now, Einstein said:

People do make this mistake often but we did not run dart on 3rd and 1 against Tampa. 

I know that,  I need to step back and restate my stances, things are blending together and I have had something come up in the last hour that is distracting me 

 

1.) At the 1 yard line I support the QB sneak as the play we prioritize. I do not hate doing the QB run from shotgun, and think we should pass from under center more frequently and pass from shotgun less frequently. I won't get upset at shotgun or under center RB runs, provided the above is all happening at reasonable ratios. The Tampa goal line failure was bad to me not because the run play happened, but because we did not even attempt a sneak and finished off the turnover on downs with our worst play of Allen's tenure, a shotgun pass. 

 

2.) I do not hate shotgun runs away from the goal line the way other fans do, in particular the concept they are very good at, dart. I believe run stuffs are uglier from shotgun because they are unnatural looking, but I'm not convinced they're more frequent. Especially given our dart frequency and aptitude. But i don't have the data to be sure. 

 

3.) Fans get this play wrong enough that I don't trust their judgment on its frequency or pretty much anything else, unless they demonstrate top percentile knowledge on football subjects

 

4.) I implicitly trust HoofHearted's diagnosis over anyone else's on this forum given his pedigree and inclination to study All-22, and because I've never seen anyone come out of a discussion with him with the upper hand. And he doesn't have the same shotgun/under center hangups that most fans do in most (not all) scenarios 

[Dukestreetking]

Regardless of interpretation, I will echo @WotAGuy sentiment: great post (and follow-ons) OP. We need more of this.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, Franco_92 said:

Again, we have run that play INCREDIBLY well. I can probably  pull 20 examples of getting 5+ yards on it in the last few weeks. And then faking it on RPOs were everyone's favorite Davis plays against Tampa, faking it to run Josh scored us a TD against Miami etc. It is foolish to hate this play lol they DOMINATE with it. Our tackles love to pull in the run game. The play is in shotgun so they have room to do it.

 

So answer the question, then - if logic dictates it's better to get a head start, why does the data show it's worse at scoring touchdowns from the 1 yard line? what's the disconnect? There are clearly details that your analysis doesn't consider. 

 

I get that you have decided to make this your personal campaign, bordering on brigading. And you're at the phase where you feel the need to hammer it into any head that slightly disagrees with your stats as if you are going to change every mind...

 

But you just have to understand that no matter what select and crafted stats you provide, a number of people will ALWAYS be philosophically opposed to running that type of play in short yardage situation.

 

When faced with Down and Short (less than 3 yards) I will NEVER be on board with plays that send the ball backwards 3-5 yards first and take a while to get started. Especially when you have a guy like Josh Allen at QB.

 

And now you're expanding your goal posts from "the 1 yard line" (title of the thread) to them being successful with it all over the field. Great. Run it on 2nd and 5 at the 45 all you want. That's not what we're talking about.

 

 

19 minutes ago, Franco_92 said:

I know that,  I need to step back and restate my stances, things are blending together and I have had something come up in the last hour that is distracting me 

 

 

Yeah bud, take a breath. Happy Friday. Go Bills.

 

 

Edited November 3, 2023 by DrDawkinstein

[Malazan]

3 hours ago, Franco_92 said:

I don't think the data is saying "No shotgun at the 1". It is saying "Do not pass out of the shotgun as frequently as you do." 

 

Except.. if they never pass out of shotgun then the opponent will know too. So given the success rate of the run being roughly the same under center.. stay under center so you can run or pass.

[Matt_In_NH]

the only issue I have is when it is from the half yard line

[reddogblitz]

My only grips with it was we should have kicked a FG and taken the points. (I said so at the time so not second guessing).  A FG in our back pocket sure would have come in handy in the 2nd half.

[Brand J]

What I want to see, which the Bills haven’t done yet, is line up in shotgun on the 1, have Allen do some of his usual checks, then walk up to the line pointing defenders out before hurriedly taking the snap for a QB sneak. Try to catch the defense off guard that way.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Franco_92 said:

I know that,  I need to step back and restate my stances, things are blending together and I have had something come up in the last hour that is distracting me 

 

1.) At the 1 yard line I support the QB sneak as the play we prioritize. I do not hate doing the QB run from shotgun, and think we should pass from under center more frequently and pass from shotgun less frequently. I won't get upset at shotgun or under center RB runs, provided the above is all happening at reasonable ratios. The Tampa goal line failure was bad to me not because the run play happened, but because we did not even attempt a sneak and finished off the turnover on downs with our worst play of Allen's tenure, a shotgun pass. 

 

2.) I do not hate shotgun runs away from the goal line the way other fans do, in particular the concept they are very good at, dart. I believe run stuffs are uglier from shotgun because they are unnatural looking, but I'm not convinced they're more frequent. Especially given our dart frequency and aptitude. But i don't have the data to be sure. 

 

3.) Fans get this play wrong enough that I don't trust their judgment on its frequency or pretty much anything else, unless they demonstrate top percentile knowledge on football subjects

 

4.) I implicitly trust HoofHearted's diagnosis over anyone else's on this forum given his pedigree and inclination to study All-22, and because I've never seen anyone come out of a discussion with him with the upper hand. And he doesn't have the same shotgun/under center hangups that most fans do in most (not all) scenarios 

I’m only going off what you are saying Hoof said, so hard to dissect it truly 3rd hand like this.  But if he is calling this play a dart it is incorrect and honestly, it’s pretty clear IMHO that it was a draw up the middle with no pulling tackles like you would see on a dart.  

[PromoTheRobot]

It doesn't matter whether you are in shotgun or under center if your line won't block.

[stevestojan]

4 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I don't know why 100% of the time the Bills don't look at the ball at the 1 yard line as 4-down territory with 3rd and 4th down both QB sneaks to Allen. 

 

Worst case the opponent takes over at their 1/2-yard line. 

 

*****in’ A. THIS. 100% THIS. 

[PromoTheRobot]

1 minute ago, stevestojan said:

*****in’ A. THIS. 100% THIS. 

 

That's why we got Lenny. Frickin' battering ram.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

If Dorsey calls a run from shotgun in that situation again he should be fired on the spot.  I am serious, it is that egregious.  To do it in back to back weeks is a fireable offense, which he did.  Both instances we lost yards, one we converted the TD on 4th down, and the other we did not convert on 4th down and we almost lost that game on a final hail mary play where not getting points there would have been the difference in the game.  

 

 

I agree with your entire post except for this part. I highly doubt it had an effect on the final score. 
 

The Bills ended up getting the ball back around the 30 yard line after the Bucs were held inside their own goal line and had to punt and the Bills would get a TD on their next possession.

[stevestojan]

16 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

That's why we got Lenny. Frickin' battering ram.

Also correct. Point being, whether it’s Josh or Lenny, pound the ***** ball four times. 
 

I’m a math guy. I trust statistics. 
 

In this particular case, I just can’t though. No part of me ever wants to see shotgun from the 1 yard line. Ever. If Dorsey does it again may he be cursed with wet socks and an itch on the bottom of his foot that he can’t reach in perpetuity. 

[Einstein]

33 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

it’s pretty clear IMHO that it was a draw 

 

A true draw has hesitation. There was none on this play. I would have to watch it again, but from memory (it was 8 days ago) I think it was duo.

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

A true draw has hesitation. There was none on this play. I would have to watch it again, but from memory (it was 8 days ago) I think it was duo.

That's called a delayed draw.  An actual draw doesn’t always have hesitation.  

[Einstein]

20 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

That's called a delayed draw.  An actual draw doesn’t always have hesitation.  

 

All draws have hesitation. Without any hesitation, there is no disguise as a pass play. Simply being in shotgun is not a disguise as a pass play. 

 

Example: Notice the slight hesitation/head look of the QB. He quickly looks left prior to handing off. Notice the linemen too.

 

 

 

Edited November 3, 2023 by Einstein

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I agree with your entire post except for this part. I highly doubt it had an effect on the final score. 
 

The Bills ended up getting the ball back around the 30 yard line after the Bucs were held inside their own goal line and had to punt and the Bills would get a TD on their next possession.

 

We could easily say had the Bills taken eve a FG there and then kicked off, our D holds the O to a 3 and out and then we get the ball back and score on the next possession anyways.

 

We left points on the board that game based on dumb playcalling in a crucial scoring situation where the points are all but guaranteed as long as you dont get too cute.

[Patrick Duffy]

1 hour ago, Matt_In_NH said:

the only issue I have is when it is from the half yard line

 

Fully agree, other parts of the field doesn't bother me half as much. Even then though it's how often it's called that's still frustrating, but inside the 1 yard line makes me lose my *****

 

 

[HoofHearted]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

No disrespect to anyone, but he is incorrect if he is saying the 3rd and goal run on the 1 yard line was a dart against the Bucs.  

 

A draw is a run play that is made to look like a pass play, hence why it is run a lot of shotgun.  It is meant to attack the A gap, which is exactly what Murray did and was done right off the snap from shotgun.  The dart is different than the "draw" play and more resembles a power and is where you have the tackle pulling.  Our tackles did not pull on the 3rd down shotgun run and it was a clear draw.  

 

I can not tell you about the week before as I did not go back and look at it, but I am pretty sure it was also a draw, but again, can't confirm without rewatching it which I will try and do later.  

 

I am not saying we don't run a dart in our playbook, but the goal line play against the Bucs was a draw and not a dart, and I don't think the one the week before was either but still need to see it again to confirm.  But honestly, it doesn't matter...dart or draw, it was a terrible play call.  

Never said it was Dart. In fact I’ve said in another thread it was Duo. So, no, it was not draw…

 

Additionally they could have run the same concept from under center and it still wouldn’t have been successful because Gabe got blown up.

Edited November 4, 2023 by HoofHearted

[Alphadawg7]

15 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

Never said it was Dart. In fact I’ve said in another thread it was Duo. So, no, it was not draw…

And see, that is why I said I can only go off what Franco was claiming you said in another thread, which was that it was a “Dart” which it definitely wasn’t.  But it appears he was misquoting you by mistake.  

 

And I agree, it could have been a duo and I will go watch it back again and look for the direction of the OL vs the direction Murray went with the ball as the duo the RB typically goes to the opposite side the OL is blocking.  I honestly only went back to look to see if it was a dart as Franco said, and it was clear as day on the snap it wasn’t so left it at that and assumed it was the draw and didn’t look at the OL as much as I looked at where Murray attacked the line.  

Edited November 4, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[HoofHearted]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

And see, that is why I said I can only go off what Franco was claiming you said in another thread, which was that it was a “Dart” which it definitely wasn’t.  But it appears he was misquoting you by mistake.  

 

And I agree, it could have been a duo and I will go watch it back again and look for the direction of the OL vs the direction Murray went with the ball as the duo the RB typically goes to the opposite side the OL is blocking.  I only went back to look to see if it was a dart as Franco said and it was clear as day on the snap it wasn’t so left it at that.  

I’ve certainly said in the past that we were running Dart and not Draw in instances we were running Dart. There’s a number of concepts we’re running from Gun and the vast majority of them are not Draw.

 

As far as the shotgun vs. under center debate about the RB hitting it with speed from under center. That’s all well and good if you’re running ISO that hits straight downhill, but we’ve been running a ton of gap scheme that hits off-tackle. It’s timing based - not run downhill as fast as you can.

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

I’ve certainly said in the past that we were running Dart and not Draw in instances we were running Dart. There’s a number of concepts we’re running from Gun and the vast majority of them are not Draw.

 

As far as the shotgun vs. under center debate about the RB hitting it with speed from under center. That’s all well and good if you’re running ISO that hits straight downhill, but we’ve been running a ton of gap scheme that hits off-tackle. It’s timing based - not run downhill as fast as you can.

I believe you, but as I stated in my reply to Franco who said that you called it a dart was that I have no other frame of reference of what you said as I did not personally read or see any other posts about it by you and all I had to go on was Franco’s accounting of it here.  
 

And I know what you are saying and I agree with you on the shotgun vs under center comparison.  
 

My point in this thread was specifically  on 3rd down inside the one with Josh Allen as your QB, any run out of shotgun is statistically a mistake compared to a QB sneak or tush push as that would have the highest % of success over any shotgun based run play.  And Dorsey called this in back to back weeks in the exact same situation and went 0-2 on those attempts.  And statistically sneaking it with Allen (or tush pushing) would have a higher % of success by a considerable margin.

 

 

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

While I agree I also don't like the shotgun snaps from the goal line I do wonder if;  prior to the NE game, G Davis commented that they needed to run more plays the felt more comfortable with.  Josh has stated he prefers being in shotgun.  So do wonder if they are running those plays at Josh's request, that it's not really a Dorsey thing?  If is the case, understand Dorsey could over rule him but do wonder if that could be behind it ?

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

All draws have hesitation. Without any hesitation, there is no disguise as a pass play. Simply being in shotgun is not a disguise as a pass play. 

 

Example: Notice the slight hesitation/head look of the QB. He quickly looks left prior to handing off. Notice the linemen too.

 

 

 

You are correct, I misunderstood what you initially referred to, so my apologies on that.   I mistook what you said to be referring to more of longer hesitation where the RB stayed in as if he was gonna pass pro and then taking the ball off that in more of a delay. 

[Chaos]

Unless I missed something, the original post ignores the down situation.  On fourth and and goal from the 1, being in shotgun is different than first and 1.  The main issue I have with being in shot gun on first, second or third down and 1, is that the result can't be simplified to "scored/Didn't scored".   Big difference if you don't score and have a hold on first down, so that it is now first and 11, or the QB is sacked 7 yards deep, or a running back is tackled 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage on a screen, or if the you don't score but advance the ball to the 1/2 yard line on a QB sneak. 

[Alphadawg7]

I will add that I look forward to seeing Fournette taking more of our down and short runs too.  Murray has done a solid job, but I think Fournette has more to offer in these situations

[Mister Defense]

7 hours ago, Buffalo619 said:

Yes. Shotgun pistol draw to be specific. Never ever want to see that again on the One. I believe This is what Is going to cost Dorsey his job. 

 

Well, yeah, in part, but need to add in the slew of big obvious fundamental mistakes he had made, makes, and will make for as long as he is the OC.

 

I am still holding out for a Thanksgiving miracle--that at least will give the new OC a (slim) chance of overcoming this nonsense.

[Einstein]

10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I will add that I look forward to seeing Fournette taking more of our down and short runs too. 

 

Simon made a point the other day that Beane has been adding more physicality to the roster and I agree. I would like to see some of this for the Bills: 

 

 

[Ray Stonada]

Now I’m not a professional OC but this is what I’d like to see the Bills try:

 

Line up under center in heavy set, two tight ends (Kincaid and Knox/Morris) and Cook or Fournette at RB. One WR (Diggs).

 

Option A: sneak

Option B: lead or counter

Option 😄 play action pass

 

Also once the defense is set the play you can totally shift the formation and go three wide with Diggs and the two TEs. Then you run it wide or pass and the defense is trying to defend your spread with space eaters. 
 

Or once the defense is set, you bring a tight end (or Gilliam) in motion to the backfield as a fullback for the push play or a straight up power run.

 

Point is, lining up under center with that personnel makes it much tougher to guess what we will do, because it keeps the sneak possibility alive, which the shotgun kills.

 

 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

10 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

 

 

I thought this was a 'true draw':

[Freddie's Dead]

Lies, damn lies, and statistics.  No more shotgun at the 1!!

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

I have no problem with shotgun run vs under center run on the goal line but a sneak would’ve made a lot more sense than either 

 

I know TB is ‘bad’ so they don’t get a lot of credit for anything but they are the number 1 defense in preventing tds in the red zone by a wiiiiiide margin which I’m not seeing talked about much with regards to the playcalling in that game.  
 

when I see all these bengals game predictions some are assuming cincy is a better defense than tb and they really aren’t 

Edited November 4, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan