2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

[Billznut]

I think if the 49ers handle Baltimore tomorrow and Purdy has another great game, he will solidify himself as MVP. The Lamar talk will be completely over. If the Ravens handle the 49ers and it’s Lamar who has the great game, I think he will pass Purdy. Generally QB of the team with the best record in the league will get lots and lots of MVP votes. So winner of this game will have a lot to do with final MVP voting I’d imagine. 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

 

Problem was what the defense gave up much of the game.

 

After the first drive (on script) where the defense gave up 90 yards but stiffened it gave up 183 yards at an average of 16 per Chargers drive. 

 

The narrative that the defense was the problem last night is insane the issues were Allen, Harty and Cook needlessly giving the ball away.

5 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Still I recognize he was the only reason we scored points today and had to overcome a lot of bad play from the talent around him.

 

Did he? The Oline had one disaster drive and Cook but the ball on the ground. But the other three Bills drives that failed were two Josh Allen misses to wide open guys on 3rd down and then a stupid pick he didn't need to throw. 

 

Equally the play he makes for our first touchdown was incredible. So I am not ragging on Josh. But this was not, overall, a game where Josh was superman despite failure around him. This was a game where his receivers - Davis, Diggs and Shakir all made really good plays for Allen.

[VaMilBill]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

After the first drive (on script) where the defense gave up 90 yards but stiffened it gave up 183 yards at an average of 16 per Chargers drive. 

 

The narrative that the defense was the problem last night is insane the issues were Allen, Harty and Cook needlessly giving the ball away.

 

Did he? The Oline had one disaster drive and Cook but the ball on the ground. But the other three Bills drives that failed were two Josh Allen misses to wide open guys on 3rd down and then a stupid pick he didn't need to throw. 

 

Equally the play he makes for our first touchdown was incredible. So I am not ragging on Josh. But this was not, overall, a game where Josh was superman despite failure around him. This was a game where his receivers - Davis, Diggs and Shakir all made really good plays for Allen.

The other huge issue was the costly penalties. Spencer brown on the tripping was not a smart play by him. He did his job by making the DE stumble with the initial block. No need to throw his legs. The following Morse holding was absolutely ludicrous. 
 

I honestly think that drive would have been a successful one

[Since1981]

Josh is not a league MVP this year. let’s move on. 

[GunnerBill]

27 minutes ago, VaMilBill said:

The other huge issue was the costly penalties. Spencer brown on the tripping was not a smart play by him. He did his job by making the DE stumble with the initial block. No need to throw his legs. The following Morse holding was absolutely ludicrous. 
 

I honestly think that drive would have been a successful one

 

Yea that drive was almost a turnover given we went backwards ended under our own posts and Martin even getting to midfield was a triumph.

[Kirby Jackson]

Josh was not good last night. This isn’t the game where we march to Twitter (still calling it that) and demand his MVP case be taken seriously.
 

Cook, Diggs, McDermott and Brady also struggled. The Bills still found a way to win a must-win game. They’ll be better next week and enter week 18 with a chance to be in the playoffs (likely to win the division). 

 

On the flip side, shoutouts to Gabe Davis and Ed Oliver on getting the job done tonight. Ed Oliver is a star.

Edited December 24, 2023 by Kirby Jackson

[finn]

2 hours ago, dma0034 said:

 

I think if the Bills end up with the #2 seed then there will be a lot of talk about Allen being MVP. He's going to have 45 Total TDs which will lead the league. Only big obstacle is the TO narrative.

Rename the prize "Most indispensable player," and Allen would win in a landslide.

 

Purdy is good. Allen is great.

[mrags]

3 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

What wasn't hard? Finding a tweet that supported your opinion? *shocked*

You understand that prop betting odds aren't dictated solely by what is most likely to happen, right? What am I saying, of course you don't. You guys aren't even football fans, you're just Bills stans. You have a complete lack of respect for the immense amount of talent in this league and it's on full display here.

Purdy could spot Allen a full game and he still wouldn't catch him. He probably won't catch Dak either and he should be miles behind CMC.

 

 

 

 

lol. How you figure? He’s got 2 less passing TDs than Purdy right now. Like 20 yards less than Purdy while being 150 or so short of the league lead. He’s currently 3rd in passing yards,  3rd in passing TDs. And 3rd in rushing TDs for the entire league. Tied with CMC btw for rushing TDs. He currently is #1 in Touchdowns in the entire league with 40. A not even close second is Hurts with 33 and then Purdy wirh 31. Dak is 4th with 30. So…. I’d say that Josh could spot every other player in the league 2 games. And they still wouldn’t catch his TD total. 

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Did he?

 

Yes. His pass catchers had trouble separating all night. The OL lost the battle in the run and pass game. Blitzes weren't picked up, as usual. The run game was non-existent. Cook fumbled one drive away. Harty fumbled one drive away. So yes I believe the only reason we did anything on offense was because of several special plays from Josh. He was Superman and he was Clark Kent. The couple of missed throws were annoying and stuck out because the volume of passing plays was so low. On the whole though there was never any rhythm or consistency to the passing game, against a really poor passing defense. And a lot of that was caused by his teammates.

 

Also Gunner I don't agree with your assessment of the defense. I know the stats are good. But it is Easton Stick missing his top 2 WRs and an OL down to their 3rd center. We should have totally dominated them... I'm talking several consecutive 3 and outs, that sort of thing. We should not have allowed a TD, even after the Harty fumble. Maybe the interim coach bump was real and we were unprepared for what they called. But on the whole I was underwhelmed by the defense. It felt like they did the bare minimum against a talent deficient offense featuring a backup QB, when a really good defense would have had the game won by the start of the 4th quarter.

 

Edited December 24, 2023 by HappyDays

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yes. His pass catchers had trouble separating all night. The OL lost the battle in the run and pass game. Blitzes weren't picked up, as usual. The run game was non-existent. Cook fumbled one drive away. Harty fumbled one drive away. So yes I believe the only reason we did anything on offense was because of several special plays from Josh. He was Superman and he was Clark Kent. The couple of missed throws were annoying and stuck out because the volume of passing plays was so low. On the whole though there was never any rhythm or consistency to the passing game, against a really poor passing defense. And a lot of that was caused by his teammates.

 

Also Gunner I don't agree with your assessment of the defense. I know the stats are good. But it is Easton Stick missing his top 2 WRs and an OL down to their 3rd center. We should have totally dominated them... I'm talking several consecutive 3 and outs, that sort of thing. We should not have allowed a TD, even after the Harty fumble. Maybe the interim coach bump was real and we were unprepared for what they called. But on the whole I was underwhelmed by the defense. It felt like they did the bare minimum against a talent deficient offense featuring a backup QB, when a really good defense would have had the game won by the start of the 4th quarter.

 

 

I am afraid we watched completely different games. 

 

The reason we didn't win going away was 3 turnovers, Josh missing two easy 3rd down throws and the OL having one total brain fart drive. 

 

The Bills were well coached, had a good plan, and but for unforced errors by players would have won by miles.

[HappyDays]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Josh missing two easy 3rd down throws

 

I was struggling to remember the 2nd one. You're talking about the pass to Kincaid that was a bit too high? In real time I thought that play had no chance of picking up more than maybe 5 yards, there was a defender immediately bearing down on Kincaid who would have hit him right after the catch. I thought that throw was just Josh conceding the drive. That play was an example of what I mean, he is patting the ball looking downfield and no one is separating. I just don't understand how against a poor pass defense we were struggling to hold the line and separate all night.

[Process]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

I was struggling to remember the 2nd one. You're talking about the pass to Kincaid that was a bit too high? In real time I thought that play had no chance of picking up more than maybe 5 yards, there was a defender immediately bearing down on Kincaid who would have hit him right after the catch. I thought that throw was just Josh conceding the drive. That play was an example of what I mean, he is patting the ball looking downfield and no one is separating. I just don't understand how against a poor pass defense we were struggling to hold the line and separate all night.

There were definitely times where Allen made the o line look worse than they were by bailing on clean pockets etc. he was a bit erratic yesterday. We saw that a lot earlier in the year. 

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, Process said:

There were definitely times where Allen made the o line look worse than they were by bailing on clean pockets etc. he was a bit erratic yesterday. We saw that a lot earlier in the year. 

 

Josh has ALWAYS bailed out of clean pockets. Mahomes does the same thing. It's a feature of their game, not a bug. Both QBs become about 10x more dangerous when they roll right. If you haven't learned to live with that part of his game yet, you never will... Like on Davis's TD I don't know if Josh needed to leave the pocket there but I'm sure glad he did.

[Motorin']

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am afraid we watched completely different games. 

 

The reason we didn't win going away was 3 turnovers, Josh missing two easy 3rd down throws and the OL having one total brain fart drive. 

 

The Bills were well coached, had a good plan, and but for unforced errors by players would have won by miles.

 

Too many people are looking at the Chargers blowout loss last week like that's who they are. That was their worst moment. 

 

They have 5 wins. And 6 losses by 3 points or less to Miami, Dallas, Detroit, Green Bay, Tenn and the Bills. 

 

They've been competitive for the entire season, and Stick has played well. 

 

I thought it was going to be tight early, and expected to see the Bills wake up in the second half and cruise to a 10-14 point W.  

 

The 3 TO's gave them 13 of their 22 points... Self-inflicted yet again...  But against a team fired up after major embarrassment who were close enough to potentially win 11 games up to this point in the season. 

[Warcodered]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

Josh has ALWAYS bailed out of clean pockets. Mahomes does the same thing. It's a feature of their game, not a bug. Both QBs become about 10x more dangerous when they roll right. If you haven't learned to live with that part of his game yet, you never will... Like on Davis's TD I don't know if Josh needed to leave the pocket there but I'm sure glad he did.

Right kind of like a nothing there, nothings there lets move and see if I can't scare someone into coming open.

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

. I just don't understand how against a poor pass defense we were struggling to hold the line and separate all night.

 

We weren't.

[Scott7975]

11 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Funny how much that INT is going to hurt Allen. Really tough throw. Not necessarily a bad decision, just a bad throw.

 

Regardless, 1st QB in NFL history with 40+ TDs in 4 consecutive seasons.

 

That actually surprised me cause I thought Mahomes reached that.

 

Plus...

 

1st and only QB in NFL history to run and pass for a TD in 11 games in a season.

 

Survive and advance...

 

 

Love moments like the last tweet.  That kid will never forget that moment.

[Scott7975]

43 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

The reason we didn't win going away

 

erm we did win.

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

We weren't.

 

The line did struggle.  They were in heavy sets quite a bit.  Even putting a big fat guy in motion.  Not many other QB on that last drive would have converted that play to save the game either.  Maybe Lamar escapes and does something.  Maybe Mahomes could have made that throw.  Everyone else eats dirt there or throws an int.

Edited December 24, 2023 by Scott7975

[BullBuchanan]

4 hours ago, mrags said:

lol. How you figure? He’s got 2 less passing TDs than Purdy right now. Like 20 yards less than Purdy while being 150 or so short of the league lead. He’s currently 3rd in passing yards,  3rd in passing TDs. And 3rd in rushing TDs for the entire league. Tied with CMC btw for rushing TDs. He currently is #1 in Touchdowns in the entire league with 40. A not even close second is Hurts with 33 and then Purdy wirh 31. Dak is 4th with 30. So…. I’d say that Josh could spot every other player in the league 2 games. And they still wouldn’t catch his TD total. 

You realize that he's played an extra game over all those players and he's still that far behind, right?

[Heavy Kevi]

5 hours ago, Since1981 said:

Josh is not a league MVP this year. let’s move on. 

 

For real. Love Josh, but...

 

This thread being revived every week is so weird.

 

It does not matter what happens in next 2 games, or even in the last 5 or so. He has too many turnovers and the team has too many losses.

 

It's like discussing if my pickup truck will beat the land speed record... Ain't happening no matter how much we talk about it.

[BullBuchanan]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Josh has ALWAYS bailed out of clean pockets. Mahomes does the same thing. It's a feature of their game, not a bug. Both QBs become about 10x more dangerous when they roll right. If you haven't learned to live with that part of his game yet, you never will... Like on Davis's TD I don't know if Josh needed to leave the pocket there but I'm sure glad he did.

It's 100% a bug, we just forgive it, because even with the deficiencies in his mechanics and mental processing, he's still a top 5 QB. If he stood in the pocket, set his feet, stepped into his throws, used a full follow through, threw at the top of his drop and went through his progressions, he'd be the greatest QB that ever lived and he'd have carried his team to multiple championships.

Every deficiency in his game is between the ears and is completely fixable. He has every physical tool you could ask for when building a QB, but he refuses to put in the work to bring his mental and mechanical components to the level of his natural physical gifts. He should have shredded that defense last night.

 

1 hour ago, Warcodered said:

Right kind of like a nothing there, nothings there lets move and see if I can't scare someone into coming open.

And then you complete the plan by underthrowing a wide open WR because you have to throw across your body without your feet set.

Edited December 24, 2023 by BullBuchanan

[Warcodered]

3 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

It's 100% a bug, we just forgive it, because even with the deficiencies in his mechanics and mental processing, he's still a top 5 QB. If he stood in the pocket, set his feet, stepped into his throws, used a full follow through, threw at the top of his route and went through his progressions, he'd be the greatest QB that ever lived and he'd have carried his team to multiple championships.

Every deficiency in his game is between the ears and is completely fixable. He has every physical tool you could ask for when building a QB, but he refuses to put in the work to bring his mental and mechanical components to the level of his natural physical gifts. He should have shredded that defense last night.

 

And then you complete the plan by underthrowing a wide open WR because you have to throw across your body without your feet set.

How's your team playing today?

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

How's your team playing today?

They won yesterday, so I have the day off. Are your awful homer takes still on for today?

[Warcodered]

3 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

They won yesterday, so I have the day off. Are your awful homer takes still on for today?

Yes my homer take that you were just obviously flat out wrong and  trolling, yeah not seeing any evidence to the contrary. 

Edited December 24, 2023 by Warcodered

[mrags]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

You realize that he's played an extra game over all those players and he's still that far behind, right?

He’s not really that far behind. After this week is finished he’s still likely to be 3rd or 4th in passing yards. 4th in rushing TDs (including RBs) and still 3rd in passing TDs. Be he will still be in the league lead in overall TDs unless somehow Hurts scores 7 times this game and Purdy scores 9 times. Like I said, he leads the league in overall TDs by a wide margin. He could probably take the rest of the year off and still not be caught by Purdy or Hurts 

[BRH]

He’s also literally not played the fourth quarter of three or four games, instead of staying in there to pad his stats like Dak and Tua and Purdy and others have done.  

[Scott7975]

 

[mrags]

4 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

This——-^ 

 

thank you 

 

fwiw, I don’t really care about the MVP. I want to win the whole damn thing. But it’s seriously funny how he isn’t getting much play for the MVP, especially on a Bills message board no less, considering he is leading the league total of TDs by 7 over Hurts, 9 more than Purdy, and 10 more than Dak. Yet somehow all these guys are in the MVP talk more than Josh is. All because of a few extra ints. 

[boyst]

Halftime in Houston. It is clear that Flacco is the MVP. Can we close this thread?

[Scott7975]

7 minutes ago, mrags said:

This——-^ 

 

thank you 

 

fwiw, I don’t really care about the MVP. I want to win the whole damn thing. But it’s seriously funny how he isn’t getting much play for the MVP, especially on a Bills message board no less, considering he is leading the league total of TDs by 7 over Hurts, 9 more than Purdy, and 10 more than Dak. Yet somehow all these guys are in the MVP talk more than Josh is. All because of a few extra ints. 

 

Same.  I don't care about MVP either but clearly Josh should be in the discussion.  He is one of the best players in the NFL period

 

[Roundybout]

22 minutes ago, BRH said:

He’s also literally not played the fourth quarter of three or four games, instead of staying in there to pad his stats like Dak and Tua and Purdy and others have done.  

Eh in fairness Tua has been pulled from a few games this season too. 

[KellyToTasker]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

You realize that he's played an extra game over all those players and he's still that far behind, right?

So, how many times did they take Josh out with a ton of time left in the 4th quarter when they were up by a ton? Stats aren’t necessarily a direct reflection. 

[BRH]

44 minutes ago, Roundybout said:

Eh in fairness Tua has been pulled from a few games this season too. 

 

I looked it up and you're right.  The guy who's barely come out at all?  Mahomes.

[transplantbillsfan]

13 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Allen still isn't anywhere near top 5 for MVP and he probably went back even further after his performance today. This thread was silly when it was started but each week it goes on approaches lunacy.

https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nfl/2023-24-nfl-mvp-odds-and-favorites

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/mvp/

[mrags]

2 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Same.  I don't care about MVP either but clearly Josh should be in the discussion.  He is one of the best players in the NFL period

 

Right. This 100%. If Allen isn’t in the discussion there is only 3 others allowed in the discussion. CMC. Hill. Mostert. Because Allen blows away all of the QB stats by a mile. He’s top 3 in yards, passing TDS, and number 1 by a mile in total TDs. If Allen shouldn’t be in the conversation, then Purdy, Tua, Prescott, Hurts and Jackson don’t belong in the conversation either.
 

IMO, Purdy and CMC cancel each other out. How can you have 2 guys on the same offense worthy of the title. And if we’re making that argument, Tua, Hill, and Mostert all cancel each other out. 

[ChrisWatson#21]

Josh is something special.  I’m actually considering hanging up my Bills fan jersey when he retires because there is not another better one coming to this franchise after him.  We are blessed to have him here.  

[FireChans]

Dak has got to be MVP. Was elite tonight. Left the field with the lead which is all that matters.

Edited December 25, 2023 by FireChans

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

6 hours ago, Heavy Kevi said:

 

For real. Love Josh, but...

 

This thread being revived every week is so weird.

 

It does not matter what happens in next 2 games, or even in the last 5 or so. He has too many turnovers and the team has too many losses.

 

It's like discussing if my pickup truck will beat the land speed record... Ain't happening no matter how much we talk about it.

If you don’t value a team winning their division down the stretch after being left for dead and being lead by a QB that leads the NFL in total TD’s then that is on you. 
 

wins over KC (Mahomes), Cowboys (Dak) and Miami (Tua) and winning the division when about 5 weeks ago everyone thought the Bills would miss the playoffs. That is quite the story for a QB who leads the league in TD’s and has the third highest QBR in the league (one of only 3 QB’s  in the league with a QBR over 70). 
 

 

6 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

They won yesterday, so I have the day off. Are your awful homer takes still on for today?

Steelers suck!  Hahahaha

[BullBuchanan]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nfl/2023-24-nfl-mvp-odds-and-favorites

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/mvp/

Here's another guy that doesn't understand the difference between betting odds and likely outcomes.

[folz]

15 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

You realize that he's played an extra game over all those players and he's still that far behind, right?

 

14 hours ago, mrags said:

He’s not really that far behind. After this week is finished he’s still likely to be 3rd or 4th in passing yards. 4th in rushing TDs (including RBs) and still 3rd in passing TDs. Be he will still be in the league lead in overall TDs unless somehow Hurts scores 7 times this game and Purdy scores 9 times. Like I said, he leads the league in overall TDs by a wide margin. He could probably take the rest of the year off and still not be caught by Purdy or Hurts 

 

I'm not saying that Josh should get the MVP, but I do find it interesting that people seem to overlook his rushing yards/TDs in the comparisons to other QBs. When you evaluate Christian McCaffrey, you don't overlook his receiving yards/TDs because he is a running back.

 

Player     Total Yards (Pass/Rush/Rec)      Total TDs (Pass/Rush/Rec)   INTs (for QBs)

Tua                           4,267                                           26                               10

Josh                         4,191                                            40                               15

Dak                          4,129                                            32                                7

Brock*                      3,933                                           31                                7

 

CMC*                       1,801                                            20

Tyreek                     1,656                                            12

Mostert                   1,187                                             21

 

*At this point, Brock and CMC have played 1 fewer game than all of the rest of the players.

 

In my way of looking at this, CMC eliminates Tyreek and Mostert (because he is definitely ahead of them, so they are out). Mostert shouldn't even be in the covo, and though Tyreek is the most important player on Miami, he's not more important to them than CMC is to San Fran. So, to me, it comes down to CMC vs. the QBs.

 

Tua has the most total yards (only 78 more than Josh)---let's say Brock throws for 300 against Baltimore today (which is unlikely), he'd be at 4,233 (34 yards behind Tua, and 42 yards ahead of Josh). So, the most likely scenario would be Brock jumping Dak, but not Josh and Tua in yards. Josh is way ahead in TDs. Even if Purdy gets 3 today, he's still 6 behind Josh. And, of course, Josh has the most INTs.

 

So, the 4 QBs are all really close in total yards (all within 138 yards of each other---about 9 yards per game only). And record-wise, Josh is one game behind Dak and two behind Tua and Brock. In a team-based sport, I don't think a record that is 1-2 games better is that significant in crowning an MVP (especially when Josh's team blew out both Tua's and Dak's teams).

 

So, it really comes down to TDs vs. INTs and perceptions.

Josh averages 1 more INT per 3 games than Tua, but almost one more TD per game (.933) than Tua. So for every extra pick that Josh throws in comparison to Tua, he scores 3 more TDs. I'll take that any day.

Josh averages 1 more INT per 2 games than Dak, but one more TD per 2 games than Dak. Since not every turnover leads to a TD. I'll take this ratio too.

Josh averages 1 more INT per 2 games than Brock, but almost one more TD per 2 games (.900) than Brock. Again, TDs trump INTs, but this is a bit closer.

 

So, again, I'm not saying Josh should be the MVP, but why shouldn't he be in the conversation when he has the second most total yards in the league and his TD totals at least balance, if not way overcome the extra picks.

 

Edited December 25, 2023 by folz