2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

It's not just beating the Eagles... it's Allen playing well and them beating the Eagles.

 

If you want to make a bet with the Jets game as a floor for Allen with a Bills win, we can.

 

Sooo... Bills win with Allen getting 290+ yards, 3+ TDs and no more than 1 turnover... on the road against the team with the best record in the NFL..

 

I will make a bet with you that at least 1 sports book puts Allen in the top 3 in MVP odds.

Deal. 
 

To be clear, it’s not that I don’t think he’s deserving. It’s that I think MVP historically almost always goes to the best QB on a team with the best record with a nice little narrative. Vegas knows that. The narrative won’t change from one game. 

[transplantbillsfan]

47 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Deal. 
 

To be clear, it’s not that I don’t think he’s deserving. It’s that I think MVP historically almost always goes to the best QB on a team with the best record with a nice little narrative. Vegas knows that. The narrative won’t change from one game. 

 

That's fine.

 

I think a 2nd consecutive good offensive showing right after firing an OC combined with Allen playing great for those consecutive weeks combined with putting up the strongest numbers in 2 years against one of the best defenses in the NFL and beating the best team in the NFL vaults him into top 3 conversation.

 

What's your wager?

[Starr Almighty]

48 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

That's fine.

 

I think a 2nd consecutive good offensive showing right after firing an OC combined with Allen playing great for those consecutive weeks combined with putting up the strongest numbers in 2 years against one of the best defenses in the NFL and beating the best team in the NFL vaults him into top 3 conversation.

 

What's your wager?

[Nelius]

The craziest war of attrition I remember. If it keeps going Big Russ is going to get some votes for his cooking. 

 

Seriously continue to feel bad for Jefferson, who could have wrapped it up as a WR with the way he was going early. Dude already seems on the Megatron path - generational talent that could be one of the best ever but will probably just deal with some injuries and general boredom playing in a cold qb purgatory.

 

 

[Chandler#81]

‘nother Team record set Sunday for QB1.

19 straight games with a TD pass! We’ll never see the likes of him again, so ENJOY IT!

https://x.com/julieandrade94/status/1726937055798927708?s=61

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

6 hours ago, Nelius said:

The craziest war of attrition I remember. If it keeps going Big Russ is going to get some votes for his cooking. 

 

Seriously continue to feel bad for Jefferson, who could have wrapped it up as a WR with the way he was going early. Dude already seems on the Megatron path - generational talent that could be one of the best ever but will probably just deal with some injuries and general boredom playing in a cold qb purgatory.

 

 

 

His team is like 5-1 without him now. If there is an MVP WR it is definitely Tyreek over Jefferson. 

Edited November 22, 2023 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[Captain Hindsight]

On 11/20/2023 at 1:57 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

How has Sam Howell been sacked 51 times?

 

I just checked, that means he is on pace for 78 sacks. David Carr had 76 against him his rookie year. Howell on his way to history

Edited November 22, 2023 by Captain Hindsight

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

That's fine.

 

I think a 2nd consecutive good offensive showing right after firing an OC combined with Allen playing great for those consecutive weeks combined with putting up the strongest numbers in 2 years against one of the best defenses in the NFL and beating the best team in the NFL vaults him into top 3 conversation.

 

What's your wager?

 

I side with FireCHans on this bet.

 

I totally agree that Allen would be deserving of top 3 tied with like 3 other players in odds. But the NFL narratives that get built up are harder to change. Now Bills beat the Eagles and the Chiefs in back to back games. Almost wouldn't matter what Allen's stats look like in those two games. He'd probably find himself top 3 in voting. 

 

He's 10th right now on Bovada at +3500, tied with Tyreek Hill. The top 3 is all pretty close with Hurts, Jackson and Mahomes each at +250, +350 and +375 respectively. I'd say he would about half his odds and land somewhere around +1600 / +1800 with a win against the Eagles. 

On 11/20/2023 at 10:57 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

 

One of the impressive things about Allen this year that hasn't been talked about too much is the number of sacks he has taken and yards lost from sacks. He is near the league bottom in sacks taken and yards lost/sack. Remember those days of Allen taking 20 yard sacks? 

[Drew21PA]

Thing is - if he goes ona hot streak to end the season

 

say beats the remainder of the schedule

 

how would that NOT be deserving of the mvp?

 

holy smokes that’s a miracle turnaround but isn’t because we all know what this team is capable of but just falls short for whatever unlucky reason 

[C.Biscuit97]

11 hours ago, gobills404 said:

 

Cause it would be cool to see a Bills player be recognized as the best in the world. Why do you care that people care???

Yeah, it’s fine. Honestly, the bills are all about the Buffalo part for me and over the years, the players become interchangeable.  This helps in the nba where fans get all worked up about the mvp situation. Never really got it but I respect others. 
 

allen is getting paid $50 million/ year. He is one of the best players in then nfl. I just want a SB. The individual stuff means nothing to me. I think Thurman won a mvp back in the day. Hooray 😂

[C.Biscuit97]

15 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Right... because when anyone says anything about Lamar Jackson nobody brings up "bErt He gOtz aN mVpS"

Because all dorks just crap on him all the time. So yes to defend an qb who everyone constantly craps on, I bring up individual honors. I bet there are a bunch of Ravens fans who don’t crap that he has the 3rd best mvp odds now (despite being terrible according to football experts here) if they don’t win in the playoffs.
 

Allen is a god here and gets less blame than Jesus!  Some people still have this thing like the media doesn’t give Buffalo it’s due when Allen is in every other commercial. 

[Scott7975]

32 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Because all dorks just crap on him all the time. So yes to defend an qb who everyone constantly craps on, I bring up individual honors. I bet there are a bunch of Ravens fans who don’t crap that he has the 3rd best mvp odds now (despite being terrible according to football experts here) if they don’t win in the playoffs.
 

Allen is a god here and gets less blame than Jesus!  Some people still have this thing like the media doesn’t give Buffalo it’s due when Allen is in every other commercial. 

 

Thats no excuse.  You can't use it and then complain about people caring about it. You using it is exactly the same reason people care about it.

 

Allen is a god here.  Football is a huge part of the Buffalo communities lives.  That Buffalo community extends all over.  Even different countries.  So what? Lamar is a god to you.  You defend him like he is your brother.  The media does dog crap on Allen and hold him more accountable than other QBs.  Commercials have nothing to do with sports media.

[The Jokeman]

2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I side with FireCHans on this bet.

 

I totally agree that Allen would be deserving of top 3 tied with like 3 other players in odds. But the NFL narratives that get built up are harder to change. Now Bills beat the Eagles and the Chiefs in back to back games. Almost wouldn't matter what Allen's stats look like in those two games. He'd probably find himself top 3 in voting. 

 

He's 10th right now on Bovada at +3500, tied with Tyreek Hill. The top 3 is all pretty close with Hurts, Jackson and Mahomes each at +250, +350 and +375 respectively. I'd say he would about half his odds and land somewhere around +1600 / +1800 with a win against the Eagles. 

 

One of the impressive things about Allen this year that hasn't been talked about too much is the number of sacks he has taken and yards lost from sacks. He is near the league bottom in sacks taken and yards lost/sack. Remember those days of Allen taking 20 yard sacks? 

Yup. Most young QBs do it but some don't learn from it (see Zach Wilson). 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Thats no excuse.  You can't use it and then complain about people caring about it. You using it is exactly the same reason people care about it.

 

Allen is a god here.  Football is a huge part of the Buffalo communities lives.  That Buffalo community extends all over.  Even different countries.  So what? Lamar is a god to you.  You defend him like he is your brother.  The media does dog crap on Allen and hold him more accountable than other QBs.  Commercials have nothing to do with sports media.

People act like Jackson is still a rb (and I think there are some other reason why) so when the media votes him a MVP, it makes those people like stupid. 
 

no one with a brain questions how good of a qb Allen is. Yes he gets flack for turnovers/ not taking the next step in the playoffs but an mvp doesn’t change how good I/ most bills fans already know how good he is. 
 

and as players leave/ change, I stop caring about the individual stuff. It’s all about Buffalo.  Sadly, a mvp is just more leverage an agent can use to drive up a contracf. 
 

but I’ve derail enough. My apologizes. And based on how he transformed that team, I would vote for McCaffrey. Purdy would be a Plummer without him 

[Chaos]

Tua Tagovailoa: 404 touches 14 turnovers (3.47%)
Josh Allen: 435 touches 15 turnovers (3.45%)

One is an MVP Candidate, the other is a turnover machine.  Make it make sense.

[LeGOATski]

32 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Tua Tagovailoa: 404 touches 14 turnovers (3.47%)
Josh Allen: 435 touches 15 turnovers (3.45%)

One is an MVP Candidate, the other is a turnover machine.  Make it make sense.

One team is 8-3 and plays in a big market. The other is 6-5 and plays in a small market. Circumstances drive the perception.

 

Tua's turnovers today were as bad as any of Allen's.

[DapperCam]

Allen could go on a tear to end the year and win it going away. We’ll see if the team is up to the task.

[Chaos]

19 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

One team is 8-3 and plays in a big market. The other is 6-5 and plays in a small market. Circumstances drive the perception.

 

Tua's turnovers today were as bad as any of Allen's.

Is Miami really a "big market"

[LeGOATski]

4 hours ago, Chaos said:

Is Miami really a "big market"

Yes, Miami is huge 

[Chaos]

3 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

Yes, Miami is huge 

By NFL standards, Miami is a medium sized market, 18th https://ustvdb.com/seasons/2022-23/markets/
 

[TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th]

I wouldn't consider miami one of the bigger markets,  that's reserved for NYC, Philadelphia, San Francisco. Dallas etc..

 

Anyways,  I agree it's ridiculous how much the media gets on josh for turnovers when all these other qbs get a pass. Even mahommes has started to turn the ball over. 

 

If the bills win the next two games with Josh playing well I think he would be the front runner for mvp. Or at the very least he will be ahead of mahommes and hurts.

[transplantbillsfan]

On 11/22/2023 at 5:58 AM, C.Biscuit97 said:

People act like Jackson is still a rb (and I think there are some other reason why) so when the media votes him a MVP, it makes those people like stupid. 
 

no one with a brain questions how good of a qb Allen is. Yes he gets flack for turnovers/ not taking the next step in the playoffs but an mvp doesn’t change how good I/ most bills fans already know how good he is. 
 

and as players leave/ change, I stop caring about the individual stuff. It’s all about Buffalo.  Sadly, a mvp is just more leverage an agent can use to drive up a contracf. 
 

but I’ve derail enough. My apologizes. And based on how he transformed that team, I would vote for McCaffrey. Purdy would be a Plummer without him 

 

Here's the ultimate question then...

 

how good of a QB is Allen?

 

I'm genuinely curious what your bar for having a brain is... because on top of seeing some interesting comments from you about Allen on this board, he gets swiped at all the time in the national media.

[Alphadawg7]

The funny thing is that the actual Bills skid could work in Allen's favor now...if Allen and the offense play like they did against the Jets and the Bills say run the table, then all of a sudden Allen is going to look like he was being impacted negatively by an OC who was the wrong fit in Dorsey and his turnovers will have less impact in the convo if he substantially lowers them under Brady.  

 

Allen plays at a high level and Bills beat Hurts and Mahomes in consecutive weeks, he is going to legit be back in the MVP convo.  But even that being said, I still think it is going to be hard for him to win it after they have spent most the season hammering him about turnovers.  If Bills run through this gauntlet winning and Allen puts up like 20+ TD's over the final 6 games and has no more than say 3 or 4 turnovers, then they will be more forced to take notice and he would have a real shot.  

 

But that is the harsh truth - Josh is just always going to get judged harder.  And this year, this offense under Dorsey for 6 weeks gave them plenty of ammo.  

 

Lets say Bills win out that means...Mahomes lost to Allen...Hurts lost to Allen...Tua and Hill lost to Allen and the Bills twice.  Allen presumably still leading the NFL in TD's if we win out, he should have a leg up on those guys.  That leaves other guys like Lamar, McCaffrey, and Purdy left in the convo.  

 

Lamar's stats fall well short of Allens, and if Allen runs the gauntlet there will be some benefit of the doubt that Dorsey was more the problem than Allen was.  So Allen likely still has a leg up on Lamar.

 

McCaffrey and Purdy though are different stories.  If the Niners continue to play this way, they will both have strong cases.  And quite honestly, if the Niners play like they have the last couple weeks for the rest of the season, I think Brock Purdy will win the MVP.  He is playing lights out, and probably better than anyone in the NFL right now.  Even in the 3 game skid he drove them down the field against the stout Cle defense and the rookie kicker missed a gimme FG (which eliminated me in my suicide pool, so I am still pissed at Moody lol).  

[LeGOATski]

22 hours ago, Chaos said:

By NFL standards, Miami is a medium sized market, 18th https://ustvdb.com/seasons/2022-23/markets/
 

Still much bigger than Buffalo. It's the 9th largest city in the US, has a team for every sport and gets tons of media attention in every regard. That's why the Dolphins are hyped every off-season. If there's a sign of them being any good, they're a favorite.

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

The funny thing is that the actual Bills skid could work in Allen's favor now...if Allen and the offense play like they did against the Jets and the Bills say run the table, then all of a sudden Allen is going to look like he was being impacted negatively by an OC who was the wrong fit in Dorsey and his turnovers will have less impact in the convo if he substantially lowers them under Brady.  

 

Allen plays at a high level and Bills beat Hurts and Mahomes in consecutive weeks, he is going to legit be back in the MVP convo.  But even that being said, I still think it is going to be hard for him to win it after they have spent most the season hammering him about turnovers.  If Bills run through this gauntlet winning and Allen puts up like 20+ TD's over the final 6 games and has no more than say 3 or 4 turnovers, then they will be more forced to take notice and he would have a real shot.  

 

But that is the harsh truth - Josh is just always going to get judged harder.  And this year, this offense under Dorsey for 6 weeks gave them plenty of ammo.  

 

Lets say Bills win out that means...Mahomes lost to Allen...Hurts lost to Allen...Tua and Hill lost to Allen and the Bills twice.  Allen presumably still leading the NFL in TD's if we win out, he should have a leg up on those guys.  That leaves other guys like Lamar, McCaffrey, and Purdy left in the convo.  

 

Lamar's stats fall well short of Allens, and if Allen runs the gauntlet there will be some benefit of the doubt that Dorsey was more the problem than Allen was.  So Allen likely still has a leg up on Lamar.

 

McCaffrey and Purdy though are different stories.  If the Niners continue to play this way, they will both have strong cases.  And quite honestly, if the Niners play like they have the last couple weeks for the rest of the season, I think Brock Purdy will win the MVP.  He is playing lights out, and probably better than anyone in the NFL right now.  Even in the 3 game skid he drove them down the field against the stout Cle defense and the rookie kicker missed a gimme FG (which eliminated me in my suicide pool, so I am still pissed at Moody lol).  

I'll never be sold on Brock Purdy as an MVP. He's a product of that system, the same one that made the likes of Nick Mullens look great. He's not the MVP of his own team, let alone the league.

[Ray Stonada]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

The funny thing is that the actual Bills skid could work in Allen's favor now...if Allen and the offense play like they did against the Jets and the Bills say run the table, then all of a sudden Allen is going to look like he was being impacted negatively by an OC who was the wrong fit in Dorsey and his turnovers will have less impact in the convo if he substantially lowers them under Brady.  

 

Allen plays at a high level and Bills beat Hurts and Mahomes in consecutive weeks, he is going to legit be back in the MVP convo.  But even that being said, I still think it is going to be hard for him to win it after they have spent most the season hammering him about turnovers.  If Bills run through this gauntlet winning and Allen puts up like 20+ TD's over the final 6 games and has no more than say 3 or 4 turnovers, then they will be more forced to take notice and he would have a real shot.  

 

But that is the harsh truth - Josh is just always going to get judged harder.  And this year, this offense under Dorsey for 6 weeks gave them plenty of ammo.  

 

Lets say Bills win out that means...Mahomes lost to Allen...Hurts lost to Allen...Tua and Hill lost to Allen and the Bills twice.  Allen presumably still leading the NFL in TD's if we win out, he should have a leg up on those guys.  That leaves other guys like Lamar, McCaffrey, and Purdy left in the convo.  

 

Lamar's stats fall well short of Allens, and if Allen runs the gauntlet there will be some benefit of the doubt that Dorsey was more the problem than Allen was.  So Allen likely still has a leg up on Lamar.

 

McCaffrey and Purdy though are different stories.  If the Niners continue to play this way, they will both have strong cases.  And quite honestly, if the Niners play like they have the last couple weeks for the rest of the season, I think Brock Purdy will win the MVP.  He is playing lights out, and probably better than anyone in the NFL right now.  Even in the 3 game skid he drove them down the field against the stout Cle defense and the rookie kicker missed a gimme FG (which eliminated me in my suicide pool, so I am still pissed at Moody lol).  

 

Great post. I will believe Allen getting an MVP only when I see it.

 

Too many clowns piled on to the "Josh Allen sucks" narrative early on for them to accept he's truly elite. They use different excuses every year: accuracy, one-score games, turnovers... and he's never a negative outlier like they imply. Most of the couch jockey media just follow the herd.

 

Truth is Allen has put up numbers equal to Mahomes over the last three years with much worse offensive coaching and with a supporting cast that is good but not great like Tua or Burrow.

 

One thing I like about Tony Romo is he made a point last game to point out that Allen is in the topmost tier of truly elite QBs in the league, haters nonwithstanding.

 

Edited November 26, 2023 by Ray Stonada

[Alphadawg7]

7 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

 

I'll never be sold on Brock Purdy as an MVP. He's a product of that system, the same one that made the likes of Nick Mullens look great. He's not the MVP of his own team, let alone the league.

But when did Nick Mullens ever “look great”?  What Mullens did was not in the same league of Purdy.  Will Purdy get figured out or keep it up is a legit question and though still.

Edited November 26, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[BBFL]

On 11/25/2023 at 6:28 AM, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:

I wouldn't consider miami one of the bigger markets,  that's reserved for NYC, Philadelphia, San Francisco. Dallas etc..

 

Anyways,  I agree it's ridiculous how much the media gets on josh for turnovers when all these other qbs get a pass. Even mahommes has started to turn the ball over. 

 

If the bills win the next two games with Josh playing well I think he would be the front runner for mvp. Or at the very least he will be ahead of mahommes and hurts.

I don’t know how you can’t include Lamar in that case. Especially if Baltimore keep winning. 
 

People are still upset with Hurts not getting it last year but if you remove him and put say a Derek Carr, Russell Wilson or some other reasonable vet do Philadelphia lose that many more games? I like Hurts and think he’s talented but he has a pretty solid team from top to bottom. 
 

Conversation sure. But there’s more in the mix than just Mahomes and Hurts for Allen to compete with. 
 

Heck, you could even make a case for CMC in San Fran. 

[LeGOATski]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

But when did Nick Mullens ever “look great”?  What Mullens did was not in the same league of Purdy.  Will Purdy get figured out or keep it up is a legit question and though still.

I'm sure he'll keep "it" up. The "it" we're talking about being average to above-average QB play on a great team, with a great coach. He's a Kirk Cousins level QB and should never be an MVP candidate unless he somehow acquires superstar-level ability. If not, there are much more deserving players, like the RB behind him.

[Warcodered]

12 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

The funny thing is that the actual Bills skid could work in Allen's favor now...if Allen and the offense play like they did against the Jets and the Bills say run the table, then all of a sudden Allen is going to look like he was being impacted negatively by an OC who was the wrong fit in Dorsey and his turnovers will have less impact in the convo if he substantially lowers them under Brady.  

 

Allen plays at a high level and Bills beat Hurts and Mahomes in consecutive weeks, he is going to legit be back in the MVP convo.  But even that being said, I still think it is going to be hard for him to win it after they have spent most the season hammering him about turnovers.  If Bills run through this gauntlet winning and Allen puts up like 20+ TD's over the final 6 games and has no more than say 3 or 4 turnovers, then they will be more forced to take notice and he would have a real shot.  

 

But that is the harsh truth - Josh is just always going to get judged harder.  And this year, this offense under Dorsey for 6 weeks gave them plenty of ammo.  

 

Lets say Bills win out that means...Mahomes lost to Allen...Hurts lost to Allen...Tua and Hill lost to Allen and the Bills twice.  Allen presumably still leading the NFL in TD's if we win out, he should have a leg up on those guys.  That leaves other guys like Lamar, McCaffrey, and Purdy left in the convo.  

 

Lamar's stats fall well short of Allens, and if Allen runs the gauntlet there will be some benefit of the doubt that Dorsey was more the problem than Allen was.  So Allen likely still has a leg up on Lamar.

 

McCaffrey and Purdy though are different stories.  If the Niners continue to play this way, they will both have strong cases.  And quite honestly, if the Niners play like they have the last couple weeks for the rest of the season, I think Brock Purdy will win the MVP.  He is playing lights out, and probably better than anyone in the NFL right now.  Even in the 3 game skid he drove them down the field against the stout Cle defense and the rookie kicker missed a gimme FG (which eliminated me in my suicide pool, so I am still pissed at Moody lol).  

In that scenario that might directly result with Allen winning, with McCaffrey and Purdy both being up there, there's a good possibility they split their vote or at least damage Purdy's while Josh wouldn't have that problem. Still even without the OC change Josh was already in a position where going on a run would have given him a shot because no one has really run away with it, if you're saying the change gives him a better narrative that only benefits him. Still he obviously has to actually do it.

[Chaos]

Hurts should be considered out of the MVP race as of today 

[mrags]

18 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Hurts should be considered out of the MVP race as of today 

Thanks for jinxing it 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

20 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Hurts should be considered out of the MVP race as of today 

At least wait till the game is over to post this crap.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

Hurts should be considered out of the MVP race as of today 

One of the dumbest posts in the history of this board. Beyond stupid. 

[transplantbillsfan]

We just got hosed on so many plays today. Allen was spectacular. His team and coaches (and the refs) really let him down.

 

 

[ToGoGo]

1 minute ago, transplantbillsfan said:

We just got hosed on so many plays today. Allen was spectacular. His team and coaches (and the refs) really let him down.

 

 

 
He would’ve shot back up into the MVP conversation with a win. 
 

But because the Eagles hit a 59 yard field goal, it’s Hurts who gets the glory. Team game. MVP is a partially team award. 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

And another INT.

 

Hes phenominal, but too many give aways and not enough Ws 

[Dr.Sack]

Tyler Norwood and Sean Levy made sure Allen lost. 

[Dan in Owego]

1 minute ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

And another INT.

 

Hes phenominal, but too many give aways and not enough Ws 

In some games i might agree with you, but not this one get outta here with this take, Allen was remarkable.

[FireChans]

How many MVPs get their OC and HC fired in the same season?

[Aussie Joe]

2 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

And another INT.

 

Hes phenominal, but too many give aways and not enough Ws 

Every diamond has a flaw ..

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

How many MVPs get their OC and HC fired in the same season?

Think Tyrod might have gone close to the MVP the year Rex got axed ..