Week 4, Bills favored by 3 over Dolphins

[NyQuil]

I hope Tua sacks himself when he sees Milano coming for him.

 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

Prisco's Week 4 NFL picks: Bills cool off Dolphins, Packers upset rival Lions, Giants survive Seahawks

 

 

 

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Dolphins are flying high after scoring 70 last week, with an offense that has looked so good so far. But Buffalo has owned this series in recent years, and they are coming off a nine-sack day against Washington. The defense looks much improved over a year ago. That matters. Josh Allen is also back on track. Bills take it. 

Pick: Bills 28, Dolphins 23

cbssports.com

[Dillenger4]

This Miami team is sooo overrated and hyped it's not even funny anymore. We are a sound, strong team. We will pound them. Just wait n see.

[dollars 2 donuts]

 

 

I'm in a weird situation.

 

I am normally the nervous nelly, gloom and doom, glass half cracked Bills fan.

 

However, I think I am one of the only few that believes Miami is going to struggle to score points against the Bills.

 

Could they get to 24, possibly a little more?  Sure, but here's the thing.

 

We are healthy, they've struggled against us previously even with Tua (albeit he is much better now) and we are not the Broncos.

 

Hell we are not even the Chargers, and we have a better D than New England.

 

I am literally more concerned about the offense trying to avoid stupid play calls, stupider penalties and some WRs trying to, it seems like, make their first contested reception since early last year.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

[Wayne Arnold]

Happened to turn on GMFB (which is usually harmless enough other than McCourty who is a Pats/Fins homer) - the praise for the Dolphins was nauseating.

 

And yet, a part of me loves it because it's only Week 4.

 

Let Buffalo fly under the radar.

[Gregg]

I would love another week of 38-10, 37-3 but that isn't happening. Between 3:30 and 4:15 on Sunday afternoon we will all be nervous. This game if it lives up to the hype will come down to the very end. 

[eball]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

I know in my advancing years memories can sometimes be foggy, but I seem to recall in the first game against the Fish last year we had replacements in every one of the DB spots save for Taron, and we held them down pretty well.  Given we have Tre and Hyde and Poyer in there and an emerging Bernard, plus McD calling what seems to be more aggressive play calls, I think we stand a good chance Sunday.  We won't completely shut them down, but I don't see the Fish running wild.

Their one big pass play was a blown coverage by our 3rd string safety on 3rd and long.

 

The Fish are not going to run up and down the field against this defense. 
 

The key is our offense taking advantage of every red zone trip with 7s instead of 3s. 
 

[TheFunPolice]

I think Denver might actually be completely terrible and also were suffering from heat exhaustion and just gave up basically. 

 

The Dolphins aren't some super team that cannot be stopped, even if it seems that way. It did to me on Sunday and I admit to getting caught up a bit in the hype. But New England held them to 24 just a week prior and had chances to tie at the end. 

 

If the Bills can hold them to 24 or 27 that's a great job. 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

7 minutes ago, Gregg said:

I would love another week of 38-10, 37-3 but that isn't happening. Between 3:30 and 4:15 on Sunday afternoon we will all be nervous. This game if it lives up to the hype will come down to the very end. 

don't include me. by no means does this game make me nervous.

 

I'm that confident the bills win!

 

 

[unbillievable]

Imagine the Bills shutting out the Dolphins after their historic 70.

 

The WGA just ended their strike. It's in the script.

[LetzGoBuffalo]

40 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

This Miami team is sooo overrated and hyped it's not even funny anymore. We are a sound, strong team. We will pound them. Just wait n see.

Love the optimism. Should be an interesting game. Glad its in Buffalo

IMO we have a better defense, but they have a slightly better offense. And i mean slightly. Simple as that, should be an offense battle but I see bills coming out on top in a close one. Sure they put up 70 last week but that was against a special needs team that gave up halfway through 

[Royale with Cheese]

Are you guys comfortable with the defense we played against the Chiefs in 2020 where we just basically let them run all down the field, clinch up in the redzone and try to hold them to FG's?

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

 

[GottaRun]

The last few seasons have taught me that this game doesn’t really matter…. what matters is being healthy and hot when the playoffs roll around…. and both these teams are going to the playoffs.

 

So I’m just going to relax and watch what I hope is one of the most entertaining and exciting games of the year.  Cheer my head off for a Bills win, and know it’s not the end of the world if they lose this one.

[mjt328]

1 hour ago, stevewin said:

The 70 pt game is the best thing that could have happened this week.  Everyone fellating the Dolphins offense and them feeling, dare I say, "historical".  Imagine the motivation for McD and the defense.  I loved Josh's answer when asked about 70 pts right after the game w/o missing a beat "I don’t focus on what they’re doing on that side of the ball"  Better believe the Bills D is.

 

I know Tua is a more experienced player in a different system - but I can't stop thinking about the game in 2021 where the Bills were bringing pressure from all angles and absolutely destroying him until they eventually broke him.

 

Also - all this "I like McDaniels b/c he's different" stuff I don't get.  I think he's a complete tool - to me a total disingenuous douche.  The way he handled Tua's concussion showed his true colors.  I listened to that Playcallers podcast that explored Shanahan/Mcvay origins and when McDaniels was on there he seemed most interested on trying to take credit for things.  F him

 

Totally agree.  All the pressure is on the Dolphins to replicate last week's performance, against a far superior defense.

Bills fans have been witness to many fantastic offensive performances over the years.  There is no guarantee that success will continue the remainder of the season, or even another week.  For example:

• After absolutely destroying the Raiders 51-3 in the 1990 AFC Championship, the Bills went on to score only 19 against the Giants in Super Bowl XXV.  Of course they also lost that game.
• In 1992, the Bills started the season with ridiculous offensive numbers, scoring 40, 34, 38 and 41.  This included the NFL's first no-punt game against the 49ers.  Then in Week 5 they hit a wall, scoring 10 and 3 points, losing both games.

 

Listening to the media, they are already trying to crown the Dolphins as the greatest offense ever.  Not so sure about that.

Not to take anything away from scoring 70 points.  But a lot of things went right for them in order to hit that total.  For instance:

• In the Bills perfect playoff game against the Patriots, we got 7 possessions (not counting two kneel-down situations at the end of both halves) and scored 47 points.  The Dolphins got a whopping 13 possessions (not counting a kneel down before halftime).  Almost twice as many.
• Two touchdown drives also came after Bronco turnovers that put them inside the 10 yard line.
• Miami was still throwing deep while up 56-13, with 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter.  I don't really care if they decide to run up the score.  But most teams in this situation would be trying to burn clock. 

[Warcodered]

30 minutes ago, unbillievable said:

Imagine the Bills shutting out the Dolphins after their historic 70.

 

The WGA just ended their strike. It's in the script.

I know we just need the win, but a part of me really wants that too, this 70 points thing is just so damn obnoxious.

19 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

 

Didn't seem like we had any injuries in the game, is like preventative or something?

Edited September 27, 2023 by Warcodered

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

2 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I know we just need the win, but a part of me really wants that too this 70 points thing is just so damn obnoxious.

Didn't seem like we had any injuries in the game, is like preventative or something?

good question. I would lean toward that. doesn't look like anything serious

[Gregg]

26 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

don't include me. by no means does this game make me nervous.

 

I'm that confident the bills win!

 

 

 

I think they will win as well but it will be close. 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Pressure Tua with 4/5, get your hands up, play clean efficient offense, Bills win by 7-10. 

[MasterStrategist]

5 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I know we just need the win, but a part of me really wants that too this 70 points thing is just so damn obnoxious.

Didn't seem like we had any injuries in the game, is like preventative or something?

Bates exited, on the long run by Cook in 4th qtr.

 

I'd guess most of these are maintenance: Hyde, Floyd, Po (and based on how Hyde/Floyd managed practice reps last week).

 

Bates and Neal will be the ones to watch.  We have Alec Anderson to step up on OL, but Neal would be a big loss on S/T if he has to miss/but still too early in week. If he had to sit, that'd likely give Elam his path to being active.

 

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

22 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Are you guys comfortable with the defense we played against the Chiefs in 2020 where we just basically let them run all down the field, clinch up in the redzone and try to hold them to FG's?

Comfortable with? No .

 

Do I think that's the most realistic option of beating the Phins this weekend? Yes. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

10 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Comfortable with? No .

 

Do I think that's the most realistic option of beating the Phins this weekend? Yes. 

It's the soundest plan. Their RZ offense isn't as prolific as their regular offense as their speed plays less of a factor, the shorter the field.

 

 

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

News stories:

 

Can the Bills limit Tyreek Hill

 

*Looks to 2022 numbers with Tua*

 

2 games, 102 yards, 1 TD

 

I'm going to go out on a limb and say it's possible 

[Mango]

The Bills have struggled with the Dolphins as of late.

 

I know the heat game....

In the Bills 3 match ups vs. the McDaniel lead Dolphins we are ahead in point differential at +3. Which is remarkably close considering in the heat game Tua shouldn't have been on the field and one game was vs Skylar Thompson. McDaniel has given us fits. I think this one will be a lot of fun, but some fans seem to be leaning on the heat game and ignoring the rest. 

 

I think the defense will keep us in this one, it will be up to the offense to sign, seal, and deliver the goods.  If we can play like he did vs the Raiders this one will be 21-35. If we get the Washington offensive performance it will be 24-27 in either direction. But if we get @NYJ output....woof. 

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, Mango said:

The Bills have struggled with the Dolphins as of late.

 

I know the heat game....

In the Bills 3 match ups vs. the McDaniel lead Dolphins we are ahead in point differential at +3. Which is remarkably close considering in the heat game Tua shouldn't have been on the field and one game was vs Skylar Thompson. McDaniel has given us fits. I think this one will be a lot of fun, but some fans seem to be leaning on the heat game and ignoring the rest. 

 

I think the defense will keep us in this one, it will be up to the offense to sign, seal, and deliver the goods.  If we can play like he did vs the Raiders this one will be 21-35. If we get the Washington offensive performance it will be 24-27 in either direction. But if we get @NYJ output....woof. 

 

Jets defense has given the Bills fits these past two years. Look at the scores 20-17 loss, 20-12-win, 22-16 OT loss. Miami's defense isn't as good as the Jets so the Bills should be able to move the ball.

[MasterStrategist]

50 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Are you guys comfortable with the defense we played against the Chiefs in 2020 where we just basically let them run all down the field, clinch up in the redzone and try to hold them to FG's?

1st goal should just to get Miami to 3rd down.  Miami has been extremely efficient on 1st/2nd downs, they've only ran 29 3rd down plays.  Converted 62 1st downs, on first or second down.

 

To make that happen, our front 4 needs to have a big game/limit the run game with a lighter box.  If we can't do that, we need to start mixing in 1st down blitzes and get home/get them off schedule.

 

Miami has been very good in the RZ too.  So again I think it's getting them into 3rd down situations and put that additional pressure on Tua to convert/their OL to hold up.  Limiting those 10+ yard plays is tough against them, but need to find a way of making them play a style they aren't accustomed to.

 

[dayman]

This game is a McD game. If he can hold them to less than 24 points it will be a masterful display and we should win. 

[AuntieEm]

On 9/24/2023 at 4:58 PM, Steptide said:

The Dolphins putting up 70 today is impressive, but keep in mind, the commanders, who the bills just held to 3 points, put up 30 on Denver. Case and point, Denver is absolutely awful 

And I'd expect the Bills would trash Denver easily as well and that's with Josh still figuring out all his new weapons.  

 

Edited September 27, 2023 by AuntieEm

[Cheektowaga Chad]

4 minutes ago, Mango said:

The Bills have struggled with the Dolphins as of late.

 

I know the heat game....

In the Bills 3 match ups vs. the McDaniel lead Dolphins we are ahead in point differential at +3. Which is remarkably close considering in the heat game Tua shouldn't have been on the field and one game was vs Skylar Thompson. McDaniel has given us fits. I think this one will be a lot of fun, but some fans seem to be leaning on the heat game and ignoring the rest. 

 

I think the defense will keep us in this one, it will be up to the offense to sign, seal, and deliver the goods.  If we can play like he did vs the Raiders this one will be 21-35. If we get the Washington offensive performance it will be 24-27 in either direction. But if we get @NYJ output....woof. 

Against Miami, it seems like the bills get week one Josh Allen. Seems like he doesn't take them as serious or just wants big plays and gets bored

 

Miami scoring 70 last week might have been a reason for allen to lock in this coming week 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

1st goal should just to get Miami to 3rd down.  Miami has been extremely efficient on 1st/2nd downs, they've only ran 29 3rd down plays.  Converted 62 1st downs, on first or second down.

 

To make that happen, our front 4 needs to have a big game/limit the run game with a lighter box.  If we can't do that, we need to start mixing in 1st down blitzes and get home/get them off schedule.

 

Miami has been very good in the RZ too.  So again I think it's getting them into 3rd down situations and put that additional pressure on Tua to convert/their OL to hold up.  Limiting those 10+ yard plays is tough against them, but need to find a way of making them play a style they aren't accustomed to.

 

 

That's pretty insane.  

 

Maybe we press the WR's and play a Cover 3.  Linebackers drop back a little deeper.  

[Mango]

Just now, Cheektowaga Chad said:

Against Miami, it seems like the bills get week one Josh Allen. Seems like he doesn't take them as serious or just wants big plays and gets bored

 

Miami scoring 70 last week might have been a reason for allen to lock in this coming week 

 

 

This would infuriate me to no end. That’s just an insane thought to be comfortable with. A guy cannot be considered top 3 if he plays games like shirt because he “gets bored” or “doesn’t take teams seriously”.

 

This team has major problems if this is the case. Might want to step back from that take. 
 

At the risk of detailing this thread our fans are saying “maybe Allen doesn’t take teams seriously” and I just heard a Kelce interview the other day where he talks about inviting Pat on an off day to a volleyball game for his cousin (?) and Mahomes only showed up for a few minutes and spent the rest of the game in the parking lot with a notepad full of notes watching film.

 

[AuntieEm]

On 9/24/2023 at 4:59 PM, RobbRiddick said:

Wow, 70 points. FilthyBeast must have mast**bated himself into oblivion 

I think he is now blind.  Maybe he can hook up with Tremaine Edmunds mom  and she can train him up as a pro bowl linebacker to walk on for a needy nfl team.  

[Chaos]

4 hours ago, jletha said:

The last two seasons we beat the Chiefs in the regular season. Those games were circled in red right when the schedule came out. We can win big games in the regular season and still fade in the playoffs.

 

Obviously a win here is huge for the division title, but it doesn't nullify our chances in February.

I should have a written “struggled with strong teams In important games”

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, Mango said:

This would infuriate me to no end. That’s just an insane thought to be comfortable with. A guy cannot be considered top 3 if he plays games like shirt because he “gets bored” or “doesn’t take teams seriously”.

 

This team has major problems if this is the case. Might want to step back from that take. 
 

At the risk of detailing this thread our fans are saying “maybe Allen doesn’t take teams seriously” and I just heard a Kelce interview the other day where he talks about inviting Pat on an off day to a volleyball game for his cousin (?) and Mahomes only showed up for a few minutes and spent the rest of the game in the parking lot with a notepad full of notes watching film.

 

Just stop already

[Mango]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Just stop already

 

Stop what? 

Saying your starting QB plays like poop sometimes because he is "bored" or "not taking a team seriously" is an insane idea to get behind and would be terrible for the team. Nobody should be rallying behind that or even suggesting it. 

I don't think that is the case.

 

[MasterStrategist]

10 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

That's pretty insane.  

 

Maybe we press the WR's and play a Cover 3.  Linebackers drop back a little deeper.  

Exactly.

 

1st down:

Miami : 7.6 yards per play

Buffalo: 4.6 YPP

 

To me it's a big key to "win" 1st down.  Either be aggressive or simulate heavy fronts/blitzes.  Get them into 2nd and long, and more predictable pass downs.

[AuntieEm]

1 hour ago, Cheektowaga Chad said:

Against Miami, it seems like the bills get week one Josh Allen. Seems like he doesn't take them as serious or just wants big plays and gets bored

 

Miami scoring 70 last week might have been a reason for allen to lock in this coming week 

 

 

 

We have no idea what we are gonna get this year against Miami on either side of the ball because future is not already written.  

 

We may truly establish a divisional dominance that may last for rest of Josh Allen's career. He certainly wins more often than he loses to the Dolphins.  He might get a bit hyped up because it's easy to mistake a dolphin fin as a shark at first glance,  and I think it's been established Josh doesn't have slow eyes.  And It takes Josh a bit to calm down after he initially panics when he thinks he's surrounded by sharks.  

 

 

I expect Josh still owns the Dolphins.  And I expect we win ToP as we frustrate and wear out the Miami defense.  We might not score 70+ points, but maybe we have the first 3 rbs on same team to all rush for 150+ yds in the same game.   I was gonna say 200+ yds but I don't want that much wear and tear on our rb room this early in season.

 

Edited September 27, 2023 by AuntieEm

[NyQuil]

2 hours ago, TheFunPolice said:

I think Denver might actually be completely terrible and also were suffering from heat exhaustion and just gave up basically. 

The set up of their field is a joke and it’s borderline criminal to have 1pm games there in September and October.

 

That being said I’m available to travel with the Bills to Miami next year to start IVs on players when the NFL. Schedule the Bills there on week three.

[Warcodered]

 

[Scott7975]

Will Jaylen Waddle Play in Week 4?

Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel said Tuesday that Waddle will participate in the day’s practice.

“He will practice today,” McDaniel said. “He’ll have a full practice and upon the results of that we’ll officially or unofficially clear him from the [concussion] protocol.”

Waddle suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter of Miami’s Week 2 game against the Patriots. He returned to practice for the first time last Friday and was listed as questionable on the Dolphins’ Friday injury report before ultimately being ruled out for the Week 3 game against Denver.

Having Waddle back would be beneficial to say the least. He has tallied eight catches for 164 yards so far this season and is ranked as the NFL’s 18th-best wide receiver by Pro Football Network. Waddle is still the Dolphins’ second-leading receiver behind Hill despite missing last week’s win.