Which off season QB contract will look the worst by the end of this season?

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

I don't see how Derek Carr is the lowest on the list...

 

Not saying he's bad, but nearly $40 million a year for Derek Carr? That's a crazy risk imo. 

 

I'm really pulling for him & hope he does well, but I'm just not sure they wouldn't have been better off grabbing a journeyman to fill the spot until they can find a better option.

 

Bad division, good roster. Carr will win 2 division titles in the next 3 years with the Saints if he stays healthy. They are not going to win a Superbowl with him, but they will make the post-season. And the contract is 12th in AAV among QBs.... and I think Carr is the 12th or 13th best QB in football. It kinda seems fair to me. 

 

Now there is a point, that has been made multiple times that the QB market has a considerable inefficiency that it doesn't allow for a big enough gap payment wise between the elite and the good. But taking a bad journeyman QB and hoping to eek out some wins is a much worse strategy that accepting 3 years of Derek Carr when you are in a division that is there for the taking unless Bryce Young emerges as a superstar. 

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

I voted for Carr. He's getting older and has a lot of wear and tear on his body. Not mobile at all. He's just average at best. 

Most 4th quarter comebacks in the league since 2015

[Augie]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Rodgers because I genuinely think he will only play 1 year. If the Jets get to the Superbowl in that 1 year its value, but I am not sure they will and as such a one year splurge that will cause them huge pain in 2024. 

 

That’s the way I voted, but honestly it was mostly because that’s the way I want it to turn out. Either way, if I’m a Jet’s fan I don’t feel great about the cost of having Rodgers without knowing what you are getting in terms of years and commitment.  After the season the Jets fans will have to wait to see if he will bless them with his presence again. 

 

I suspect Daniel Jones will look like the correct answer by Christmas.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

That’s the way I voted, but honestly it was mostly because that’s the way I want it to turn out. Either way, if I’m a Jet’s fan I don’t feel great about the cost of having Rodgers without knowing what you are getting in terms of years and commitment.  After the season the Jets fans will have to wait to see if he will bless them with his presence again. 

 

I suspect Daniel Jones will look like the correct answer by Christmas.

 

The only way I see Rodgers coming back for year 2 is like a heartbreaking AFC Title loss. I think he might then think "right one more push" if he wins another ring he is riding off into the sunset everyone is happy and if the end up a playoff team but not a contendor, or worse, he will jack it in and go meditate in the forest or whatever it is that he likes to do in planet Aaron Rodgers. 

[mjt328]

I voted Daniel Jones.  The worst thing a team can have is an average QB on a franchise QB contract.  The Giants surprised a little bit last year, but I see them falling back out of the playoffs and Jones getting the majority of the blame.

 

Unfortunately, I don't think Aaron Rodgers is the decline that some Bills fans tend to believe.  He has some weapons in New York, and some renewed motivation.  Hopefully we can fight them off, but I think the Jets are going to be very tough this season.  I could see David Carr bouncing back a little bit as well, especially in a very weak division.

 

Lamar Jackson's deal will look fine by the end of 2023.  I just don't think he continues to play at an elite level over the long-term, and the Ravens might be regretting it a couple more seasons down the line.

 

[Gugny]

5 hours ago, Gregg said:

 

I hope you are right obviously, but I have a feeling the Jets are going to be good this year. Those 2 games against them are going to be hard fought games just like last year.

We’re playing them twice AGAIN!?!?  Eff Goodell!!

[JerseyBills]

Chose Lamar but ARod is a close 2nd

 

Lamar- For being the current highest paid QB per year , i think it's way underseved and Bal pretty much had no options but to pay him

1-3 career postseason record.  People bring up his lack of weapons but he had vet FAs ,#1 picks, top 3 TE and the best running game in the league for a few years

Now with them going to a more pass heavy attack , i feel they,re a WC team at best. Could see them miss out completely w Pit and Cle overtaking them. Just not worth the contract

 

ARod - I just feel NY is toyally overvaluing their roster. He had 8 wins in a wayy worse division and conference w a better OL and RBs. Equal or slightly better TEs. Only thing significantly better in NJ is yhe D. 

 

Even at WR and D, GB still had a great team. 19 & 20 they reached NFC title gms , 13 win reg season.

2021- 13 wins, 1st rd bye , lose in divisional. 

Ya they lose Adams in 22 but to go from 13 wins to 8 is on ARod. 12 ints. Previous 4 years 15 ints. That's a huge difference. Jets will regret this, essentially renting an overpriced sports car. And after a year or 2 they'll be back to square 1

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

Gotta look at what the effective guarantees are:

 

Rodgers: 2 years, $107M

 

Jackson: 4 years, $208M but can be shortened to 3 years, $185M 

 

Jones: 2 years, $86M

 

Carr: 2 years, $70M or 3 years, $100M

 

Rodgers and Jackson carry the most risk because they’re the highest AAV. Carr is getting paid market value. Jones is above MV (IMO) so I guess I go with him. Still, it’s only two seasons and he gives the Giants a chance to find their next QB in that time. Still, I think he will disappoint. 

The only reason I didn't pick Jones is mostly because of DabolI. Not so much Jones. Daboll can scheme, game plan, and get the most out of Jones. 

Edited July 18, 2023 by newcam2012

[transient]

I said Lamar. Jones and Carr are basically going rate for an avg QB in 2023. Jones’s contract has an out in 2025 and Carr’s in 2026.  Rogers, even if he continues to decline, only puts the Jets in a bind for 2 seasons. Lamar has more in guarantees than the total value of any of those other contracts over 5 years without an “out” built in… and he’s played less and less football the last few seasons due to injury and hasn’t closed out a season since 2020… I suspect at the end of 2023 the Ravens are really going to wish they stuck to their guns on the contract structure. 

[BarleyNY]

38 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

The only reason I didn't pick Jones is mostly because of DabolI. Not so much Jones. Daboll can scheme, game plan, and get the most out of Jones. 

 

That’s fair. I don’t think it’s an easy call. Even if Jones disappoints this season they only have to keep him one more year. 

[CincyBillsFan]

6 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Because he won a MVP and wins 70% of his starts. 
 

and Jones averages 15 td passes and 9 ints. It’s a joke he makes that much. At least Carr has put up good numbers. 

In 2019.  His stats and health since that time can not be ignored nor can his lack of success in the playoffs where he is 1 - 3 and has yet to play an above average playoff game.

 

The Giants are getting Jones for about 100 million dollars less then the Ravens are getting Jackson. 

 

 

 

 

[RyanC883]

8 hours ago, arcane said:

Rodgers, his decline was not an aberration and will only accelerate 

 

I agree, but the Jets had the cash to burn with a number of their better players still on a rookie contract.  Was close for me between him and some others. 

[BigDingus]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Bad division, good roster. Carr will win 2 division titles in the next 3 years with the Saints if he stays healthy. They are not going to win a Superbowl with him, but they will make the post-season. And the contract is 12th in AAV among QBs.... and I think Carr is the 12th or 13th best QB in football. It kinda seems fair to me. 

 

Now there is a point, that has been made multiple times that the QB market has a considerable inefficiency that it doesn't allow for a big enough gap payment wise between the elite and the good. But taking a bad journeyman QB and hoping to eek out some wins is a much worse strategy that accepting 3 years of Derek Carr when you are in a division that is there for the taking unless Bryce Young emerges as a superstar. 

 

I understand where you're coming from, I guess I'm just not that confident in Carr or the Saints, even if the division is weak right now. I think of the Saints more like the Commanders from a few years ago who played the Bucs in the first round. 

 

You're right about the QB contract issue, but out of the poll options, Derek Carr is the who I'm least confident in performing up to that contract.

 

Daniel Jones seems like the easy pick, but Daboll got the most out of him in that offense, and he actually won a playoff game. Derek Carr was given the best WR in the league & did worse than the year prior. I bet if Jones was given Davante Adams this year, he'd take another big leap. 

 

Or I could just be way too down on Derek Carr after last season & be entirely off base. 

[beerme1]

Rodgers. Not just because of the money, but what else they gave up to get him. I hope he has a shiity year and retires after next season hurting them even more.

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

Of those 4 I'll vote for Danny Dimes. The guy is the white Tyrod Taylor 

 

Watson, Murray, and Wilson all have spicy contracts too even if none were this offseason 

[John from Riverside]

I said carr

simply not on that level as a quarterback, and he is an interception machine

[Mike in Horseheads]

Looking at the current poll by @Mr. WEO  voters are picking Rodgers.  I think that is more wishful thinking than picking Lamont or Danny Dimes.

[LeGOATski]

Gotta be Rodgers or Carr. They're just the highest risk of imploding due to age, inconsistency, and lack of momentum at this point in their careers.

 

Lamar is consistent and young. You know what you're getting and I don't think he's gonna disappoint while still on the Ravens.

 

Daniel Jones kinda sucks, but he's young and in a pretty good system. He's got momentum.

 

I went with Carr because he's worse than Rodgers and has a longer contract. He's not going to live up to it.

[JoPoy88]

Good thread/poll. I voted Danny Dimes just because I think he’s not good by any stretch but the Giants were kinda walked into that deal with the QB market price being what it is and they didn’t want to start over. But I totally understand @GunnerBill and others arguments about Rodgers as well. And of course, I hope it does blow up in their faces.

[Doc Brown]

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Most 4th quarter comebacks in the league since 2015

Why'd he have to come back so much?  Mostly because the Raiders defense hasn't ranked in the top 20 in any season in that time frame.  Glad to see him get out of the dysfunctional Raiders franchise.  Carr's a good QB (in the 13 to 16 range) who struggled in McDaniels offense as he regressed in almost every aspect.  He was awful in the Red Zone.  It's a tough offense to learn in one year which is pry why they switched to Jimmy G on a cheaper deal.  I don't think he's good enough though to be the driving force behind a Super Bowl victory though.