Peter King/FMIA/PFT 1st Round Mock Draft

[AuntieEm]

1 hour ago, DCofNC said:

The same was said about Zay Jones.. who also was from a Carolina school.. not the same, but yeah.  Elite anything is nothing until it’s in the NFL and shows that it’s a great asset along with all the other intangibles being at very least, REALLY good.  Not saying he won’t be good or anything if that nature, but 1 skill does not define an NFL player.

 

   I truly feel in the case of Zay Jones he bought into all his draft hype as being the most NFL ready WR in his class and adding the questions surrounding Allen as a viable starting QB.  Zay Jones didn't put in the effort to adjust to the pro game because in his mind he played at a pro level already and Josh needed to up his game.   

 

   Any wr drafted wants to go to a team with solid QB play.  Don't think there are any draf eligible wrs that wouldn't jump at the chance to begin their NFL careers with Allen and would put out maximum effort to make the team.  

 

    Zay Jones already had his sense of entitlement and his father chiming in as well to question Allens QB abilities just cemented that entitlement in Zays mind.  

 

  It's really a matter of how Downs puts in the effort to transition onto the NFL.  Perhaps the lack of visits will motivate Downs and that would be a better start than any 'entitled feeling' rookie.

 

 

   

[DCofNC]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

While the Bills haven't had any 1st round busts in the McBeane regime........the only one of them to play to their reputation and have a big impact as a rookie was Tre White.   So I think we are accustomed to modest rookie season expectations by now.   Aaron Quinn likes to hear himself talk though so it's just a wind-bag being a wind-bag.

Tre was not a Beane pick.  At best it’s the Mc regime and don’t forget the guy taken at the Bills original slot was a slow starter, but turned out ok lol.

[hondo in seattle]

6 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/mock-drafts.php

 

King is 35th in accuracy

 

Which puts him the top quartile of self-appointed draft experts.  Pretty good, actually.  

  

[MrEpsYtown]

Just now, hondo in seattle said:

 

Which puts him the top quartile of self-appointed draft experts.  Pretty good, actually.  

  

Yeah i think its really hard to be accurate. I think Albert Breer got like 8 matches last year which is absurd. Everyone else had like 3

[Pirate Angel]

9 hours ago, ganesh said:

It is very possible the Bills will Franchise Tag Gabe and then could find a trading partner...like they did with Peerless Price several years ago. 

Peerless was fresh off a 1000+ yard season and was viewed as a possible #1 receiver.

[offyourocker]

Josh Down highlights are more impressive than Flowers to me

[Alphadawg7]

11 hours ago, CNYfan said:

I have always felt Downs was a rarely mentioned possibility.  

 

While I don't think he will go in the first round, I do think Downs could end up being the best WR to come out of this draft when we look back in 3-5 years.  27 feels early for him, but I also do not think he reaches us in the 2nd either.  

 

For the record, I am think Shakir has good potential and was high on him last draft.  However, like I have said in other threads, despite being optimistic about Shakir, it would be hard to not get excited about someone as electric as Downs.  

[Dopey]

10 hours ago, whorlnut said:

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

Damn dude 

Damn dude

Damn dude

Damn dude

I’ll stop here. 

[John from Riverside]

14 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He’ll be signed this summer. Going no where. He’s their WR 2/3 of the now and future.

Do you have some kind of inside info that we need to know about?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

8 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Do you have some kind of inside info that we need to know about?

No lol. Just good educated guesses. Davis is this years Knox. Oliver is this years Edmunds.

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

 

I'm not really buying into the Gabe injury excuse. He was plenty heathly for most of the season: especially down the stretch. He simply didn't produce as well as many fans expected. 

 

Davis arguably has one of the best QBs throwing him the ball. One of the best QBs extending plays. Ask yourself how much better does Allen make Davis? What kind of WR would he be with an average QB? I'd argue Allen makes Davis look better than he is. 

 

One stat that really rears its ugly head is Gabe's catch rate and drops. His catch ratio was 51% and his drop rate was 10%  You just can't spin that into goodness. At best, he's a mediocre number two with an elite QB padding his stats. Imho, he's as replaceable as it gets.

 

No way is he worth a 15 million plus contract. Imho, the prudent strategic move would be to trade him, let him walk, sign Dhop, or draft a promising WR saving millions on a rookie contract. 

 

 

The fact that you're "not really buying into the Gabe injury excuse," says a lot more about what you want to believe than it does about Gabe. Acknowledging Gabe's injury as a factor would hurt your narrative, so you're not buying in. 

 

He missed a game. Then had one of his least productive games the next week and his absolute least productive game the week after that.

 

Whether or not you find it convenient to admit, that injury absolutely hurt his productivity.

 

And as has been said again and again (and again), you don't need to use spin to help explain his catch percentage. He has one of the longest average target distance in the league. And the longer the passes that come to you are, no matter who you are, the lower a percentage you're likely to catch. That's what happens with long passes. They're harder to complete. That's simply a fact. Plus another fact inconvenient for your argument, which is that reception percentage is NOT a receiver stat. It's a quarterback and receiver stat. With the defense also making a significant contribution.

 

You're probably right that he's not worth $15M right now. The general consensus right now is around $12 or $13M. That's what he's worth, most likely.

 

He was a #2. That's what he was. Certainly not an elite or great one. But he's a #2. You folks pretending he's a #3 or a #4 are kidding yourselves. An average #2? Yeah, for last year that's probably fair.

 

Does that mean we shouldn't try to improve our WR situation? Hell, no. We should improve ourselves at every position, certainly including WR.

 

Again, I'd love to get Josh Downs in the draft if we can trade down to do it. Or Flowers or Addison at #27 if possible.

 

 

[JoPoy88]

8 hours ago, AuntieEm said:

 

   I truly feel in the case of Zay Jones he bought into all his draft hype as being the most NFL ready WR in his class and adding the questions surrounding Allen as a viable starting QB.  Zay Jones didn't put in the effort to adjust to the pro game because in his mind he played at a pro level already and Josh needed to up his game.   

 

   Any wr drafted wants to go to a team with solid QB play.  Don't think there are any draf eligible wrs that wouldn't jump at the chance to begin their NFL careers with Allen and would put out maximum effort to make the team.  

 

    Zay Jones already had his sense of entitlement and his father chiming in as well to question Allens QB abilities just cemented that entitlement in Zays mind.  

 

  It's really a matter of how Downs puts in the effort to transition onto the NFL.  Perhaps the lack of visits will motivate Downs and that would be a better start than any 'entitled feeling' rookie.

 

 

   

If he really is that entitled he would have washed out of the league already. He didn’t. He grinded it out and became a decent weapon for Vegas and Jax.

 

It’s entirely possible though he had a bad attitude here and woke up once he was gone. 

 

 

[HappyDays]

I just can't excited about a slot only WR in the 1st round. It's an easy role to fill. The Chiefs got JuJu Smith-Schuster for basically $4 million. We got Beasley for $7.5 million AAV in his prime, and he was easily the best slot only WR in the league at his best. I wouldn't take Beasley even in his prime for a 1st round pick. He played a valuable role but not THAT valuable. That's the ceiling of what Downs could give us. No way I'm happy with that pick.

[JoPoy88]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I just can't excited about a slot only WR in the 1st round. It's an easy role to fill. The Chiefs got JuJu Smith-Schuster for basically $4 million. We got Beasley for $7.5 million AAV in his prime, and he was easily the best slot only WR in the league at his best. I wouldn't take Beasley even in his prime for a 1st round pick. He played a valuable role but not THAT valuable. That's the ceiling of what Downs could give us. No way I'm happy with that pick.

yeah I agree. If they trade down out of 27 and pick him up that’s fine. It’s a need. And his numbers are impressive.

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

While the Bills haven't had any 1st round busts in the McBeane regime........the only one of them to play to their reputation and have a big impact as a rookie was Tre White.   So I think we are accustomed to modest rookie season expectations by now.   Aaron Quinn likes to hear himself talk though so it's just a wind-bag being a wind-bag.

 

 

Rousseau and Edmunds both probably lived up to their draft status as rookies. Neither ripped up the league but both had very good rookie years.

 

 

[HappyDays]

Oh jeez I just looked at the full mock, he has Luke Musgrave going 28th overall?? I don't know if that's so crazy that it must be possible, or if it's just crazy. I guess after Payton Turner and Cole Strange anything is possible.

[Solomon Grundy]

9 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

It’s possible but not likely.

 

Straight from the horses mouth:

 

Well... Then why in the hell was there such an uproar about drafting Breece Hall with the Bills pick last year?? 🙄

[BillsFanForever19]

Absolute insanity to draft Josh Downs with Quentin Johnston and Jalin Hyatt.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

I just don't see a slot WR at 27, we have Shakir and just picked up 2 in FA and no chance he's the 27th best player in this draft class. I still think OL will be the selection, Torrence, Avila or 1 of the RT's imo.

 

[newcam2012]

55 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

The fact that you're "not really buying into the Gabe injury excuse," says a lot more about what you want to believe than it does about Gabe. Acknowledging Gabe's injury as a factor would hurt your narrative, so you're not buying in. 

 

He missed a game. Then had one of his least productive games the next week and his absolute least productive game the week after that.

 

Whether or not you find it convenient to admit, that injury absolutely hurt his productivity.

 

And as has been said again and again (and again), you don't need to use spin to help explain his catch percentage. He has one of the longest average target distance in the league. And the longer the passes that come to you are, no matter who you are, the lower a percentage you're likely to catch. That's what happens with long passes. They're harder to complete. That's simply a fact. Plus another fact inconvenient for your argument, which is that reception percentage is NOT a receiver stat. It's a quarterback and receiver stat. With the defense also making a significant contribution.

 

You're probably right that he's not worth $15M right now. The general consensus right now is around $12 or $13M. That's what he's worth, most likely.

 

He was a #2. That's what he was. Certainly not an elite or great one. But he's a #2. You folks pretending he's a #3 or a #4 are kidding yourselves. An average #2? Yeah, for last year that's probably fair.

 

Does that mean we shouldn't try to improve our WR situation? Hell, no. We should improve ourselves at every position, certainly including WR.

 

Again, I'd love to get Josh Downs in the draft if we can trade down to do it. Or Flowers or Addison at #27 if possible.

 

 

Well said Thurman. 

[BADOLBILZ]

27 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Rousseau and Edmunds both probably lived up to their draft status as rookies. Neither ripped up the league but both had very good rookie years.

 

 

 

I didn't say anything about draft status.

 

Tre White played at a pro bowl level as a rookie.   He was great.  That might even have been his best season.   He hit the ground running and didn't stop that season.

 

 That happens occasionally with a rookie but we don't expect that.

 

Quinn was implying that fans expect these players to play close to their potential right away.   In reality,  I don't think we do.

 

We definitely grade them on a curve.   You definitely did.  

 

I am a huge Rousseau fan but a 4 sack season like his rookie year would be terrible in 2023.  

 

An argument could be made that Edmunds best season was as a rookie and had 3 subsequent down seasons before rebounding in a contract year.   But even so it wasn't a spectacular,  pro bowl kinda' start.   And those kind of seasons aren't that unusual for MLB's........see the next MLB picked,  Shaq Leonard,  who was first team All Pro as a rookie.    Edmunds was notably poor in run defense and missed a very high % of tackles as a rookie.    He's never developed into the player the fans or organization hoped.

[Thurman#1]

16 hours ago, T master said:

All of these guys seem to forget the Bills have Shakir that last draft every one was saying how big of a steel this guy was & his position was slot receiver then with the pick up of Harte how many more slot guys do we need shoot they let Hodgins get away & that's where he made his hay in college .

 

Given all of the acquisitions on offense this off season & the losses on defense i hope they grab one of the stud LBers for our first pick I'm going on record with Sanders as my first rounder for this year .

 

 

Shakir can play outside or slot. 

 

I'm with Campbell and Sanders just where I am with Downs. I really like them, but not without a trade back.

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

I just can't excited about a slot only WR in the 1st round. It's an easy role to fill. The Chiefs got JuJu Smith-Schuster for basically $4 million. We got Beasley for $7.5 million AAV in his prime, and he was easily the best slot only WR in the league at his best. I wouldn't take Beasley even in his prime for a 1st round pick. He played a valuable role but not THAT valuable. That's the ceiling of what Downs could give us. No way I'm happy with that pick.

 

 

Agreed #27 is a bit high.

 

But Smith-Schuster isn't always a slot. He's versatile and generally runs a lot inside and out. 40% slot last year according to this:

 

https://www.patriots.com/news/analysis-how-will-the-patriots-utilize-new-wr-juju-smith-schuster-in-the-offense#:~:text=Although 40 percent of his,the Pats also run regularly.

 

But I think people under-estimate how very valuable a really good slot guy can be to Allen. Beasley for a while there was an absolute third down machine for 1st downs. Having a guy who can get open on those plays really quick is huge for continuing drives.

 

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I didn't say anything about draft status.

 

Tre White played at a pro bowl level as a rookie.   He was great.  That might even have been his best season.   He hit the ground running and didn't stop that season.

 

 That happens occasionally with a rookie but we don't expect that.

 

Quinn was implying that fans expect these players to play close to their potential right away.   In reality,  I don't think we do.

 

We definitely grade them on a curve.   You definitely did.  

 

I am a huge Rousseau fan but a 4 sack season like his rookie year would be terrible in 2023.  

 

An argument could be made that Edmunds best season was as a rookie and had 3 subsequent down seasons before rebounding in a contract year.   But even so it wasn't a spectacular,  pro bowl kinda' start.   And those kind of seasons aren't that unusual for MLB's........see the next MLB picked,  Shaq Leonard,  who was first team All Pro as a rookie.    Edmunds was notably poor in run defense and missed a very high % of tackles as a rookie.    He's never developed into the player the fans or organization hoped.

 

 

You're seriously distorting, or at least exaggerating, what Aaron Quinn said. He didn't say "fans expect these players to play close to their potential right away," as you paraphrase it here. Nonsense. He said that "fans need to adjust their expectations," which surely means that fans expect too much as rookies, but does NOT mean that fans expect them to play close to 100% of their potential right away. Frankly, Bills fans absolutely do expect too much from rookies, particularly rookies stepping into a very strong roster.

 

Edmunds was very good right from scratch. Got a ton better as time passed.

 

If he wasn't good enough for the fans, that's because they had nutty expectations. There's a reason he's now the 4th best-paid off-ball LB in football in AAV, behind only Roquan, Shaquille Leonard and Fred Warner.

 

"Notably poor in run defense" is absolute and utter nonsense whether you're talking about his Bills career or his rookie year. He did take some bad angles that first year getting used to the speed of the game and the Bills run fills system while having to call the defenses. Still was very good, though.

 

Fair enough that "it wasn't a spectacular, pro bowl start." You're certainly right about that. But that's not the bar that was originally raised.

[T master]

19 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Shakir, while I like him...is not a guarantee to take a step forward.
I love the Harty signing, but his injury history is a caution flag.
Sherfield could really compete for WR3...
 

for me, I want the top 4 to look like this...

Diggs

______   Hopkins / Other Accomplished NFL WR via trade 

Davis
______  Rookie  (JSN/Addison/Flowers/Hyatt/Mingo) 

This would create a ton of competition and put us on the high end of offensive weaponry 

It's on the outer realms of reality....but certainly would get Bills Mafia very excited for the season 

 

 

But it could work out to be 

 

1) Diggs 

2) Sherfield - If utilized right in this scheme 

3) Shakir/Harte - slot 

4) Gabe 

Plus - Knox - Harris - Cook - Hines - Morris - Gilliam and the occasional Tommy Doyle appearance as a receiver/ TE & the new O linemen McGovern was used in many ways on offense Dorcey could get very creative with this line up .

 

Then if they can land a late round or UDFA - WR or TE after the draft or get Washington in the draft given the WR this season not being 1 very big & 2 no elite talent at the position i would rather they get Sanders that has a very high upside & versatility in the D in the first round & grab a WR later .

 

But that's just the fan in me i'm no expert for sure !!! 

 

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You're seriously distorting, or at least exaggerating, what Aaron Quinn said. He didn't say "fans expect these players to play close to their potential right away," as you paraphrase it here. Nonsense. He said that "fans need to adjust their expectations," which surely means that fans expect too much as rookies, but does NOT mean that fans expect them to play close to 100% of their potential right away. Frankly, Bills fans absolutely do expect too much from rookies, particularly rookies stepping into a very strong roster.

 

Edmunds was very good right from scratch. Got a ton better as time passed.

 

If he wasn't good enough for the fans, that's because they had nutty expectations. There's a reason he's now the 4th best-paid off-ball LB in football in AAV, behind only Roquan, Shaquille Leonard and Fred Warner.

 

"Notably poor in run defense" is absolute and utter nonsense whether you're talking about his Bills career or his rookie year. He did take some bad angles that first year getting used to the speed of the game and the Bills run fills system while having to call the defenses. Still was very good, though.

 

Fair enough that "it wasn't a spectacular, pro bowl start." You're certainly right about that. But that's not the bar that was originally raised.

 

 

His salary is just a function of timing........all 4 of those guys were picked in the same draft so they just hit their second contract signing time..........and two of them were picked after him.

 

All of them have been All Pro except Edmunds.

 

So yes, he fell short of expectations.   

 

Tre White and Shaq Leonard were their best selves as rookies.........so that happens too........they've never been better.   Some rookie actually are great and don't have a lot of room for improvement but I don't think fans expect that at all.    We are accustomed to works in progress.........we know the mantra about the biggest improvement period being the offseason between year 1 and 2, etc.. etc..   

 

Edmunds best year was quite possibly his first as well, but it's all relative because he never played close to the level of the aforementioned players.   He struggled against the run and missed by far a career high % of tackles as a rookie.........but play making and tangible pass defense trump those aspects.  

 

He made more plays....a career high in INT, his only 2 forced fumbles of his career and his most QB hits along with a career high in tackles.    He looked like a big play LB in the making and instead became the opposite.   And teams hadn't yet figured out that he lacked a nose for the ball in pass coverage so they didn't throw directly at him in coverage and register the outrageously high passer ratings like they did in 2020-2021. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

On 4/24/2023 at 8:12 AM, newcam2012 said:

I agree. Davis will likely get a nice contract offer from another team. Of course, a lot will depend on this season's play. 

 

I'd rather let Davis walk and draft a cheaper WR on a rookie contract. Davis is definetly replaceable. 

 

 

newcam, even if he has the exact same season this year that he had last year somebody is going to offer him no less...no less than 10 million per, for 3-5 years.  However, likely even more.

 

I agree with you completely.  No way. Time to move on.

 

 

[BigAl2526]

Gag!